Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

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Mark_Cangila
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:48 pm UTC

Here is my current town scum list, based on cop results.

Town:
Mark (XOR Cop)
Bessie (Cop)
Moody (unknown)
LG (Power Switcher)

Scum:
MoA (GF) (Messager I think)

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby moody7277 » Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:49 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Mark, please also claim whether or not you received coal.

moody7277 wrote:Used my second of two chances with list making, so whoever got it from me being swapped is most likely out of luck.
Why did you feel the need to claim this? (And what do you mean by whoever? There was no one else available.)


Given that someone else (you) has the description for the role now, the tactical idea I was discussing with Vicarin start of D3 no longer applies, and so honesty about it is the best call.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby MasterOfAll » Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:56 pm UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:I received coal.
Yes, Mark was my target for a lump of coal.

Vicarin was my target for detecting coal residue, and I got a "no residue" result (interestingly not a "no result" since Vic died) but I have no idea in what order night actions are processed, so my detecting ability may very well have been processed before Mark's claimed cop of Vic and bessie, or maybe my goal gifting was processed later in the night; so, at this point very few conclusions can be made about my results.

(I have asked the mods for some clarification on the relative order of my current abilities, but don't know if that is something they will disclose).

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:48 pm UTC

How does the coal residue work? I don't get the point of it.
Also, MoA is a coal giver not message.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby MasterOfAll » Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:06 pm UTC

It's kind of a delayed watcher. If someone holding a piece of coal (received a piece on an earlier night, or possibly earlier on same night) visits (aka targets) any other player, that other player now has been marked with coal residue which I can then detect (definitely on subsequent nights but possibly on same night?).

I'm not sure it is actually useful at this point in the game, but say, for instance that you already were holding a piece of coal when you targeted Vicarin (and bessie) with your XOR cop, then (assuming that my residue check happens later in the night than your XOR cop) I would have detected coal residue on Vicarin.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby MasterOfAll » Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:48 pm UTC

OK, so the mods got back to me and clarified that my coal giving ability does occur prior to my coal residue detecting ability each night, but will not say when those abilities happen with respect to other players' abilities.

Also, my night result has been corrected to a positive coal residue result on Vicarin. (and the mods are willing to confirm that my result has been corrected, if anyone cares)

So, I can now confirm that someone (likely Mark) holding coal did target Vicarin after receiving that coal (likely last night).

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:25 am UTC

I did target Vicarin and Bessie with XOR in order to make a block. Vicarin and Bessie are aligned. I think MoA is likely godfather, as he has been saying odd things through the game, going back to his vanilla claim on D1.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby bessie » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:27 am UTC

Power claim, N1-N3 I was a rolestopper that stops one night action, the most harmful.

N3 night actions claims:

bessie – rolestop Mark
LaserGuy – swap bessie and moody, target Mark
MasterOfAll – investigate Vicarin, give coal to Mark
Mark_Cangila – cop bessie and Vicarin
moody7277 – alignment cop
Vicarin - unknown

It is unknown if Vicarin used the roleblock/double vote. Everyone is verified by someone else except moody.

@moody, you should vote first so we can see your vote show up in the votals to prove you weren’t roleblocked.


Cop results, assume all cop results are truthful, sane, and true to alignment (no GF or miller). Yes, I know others have posted and analyzed them already, but they're not me.
Spoiler:
moody’s N1 results, 3 mistakes:

town
LaserGuy
Boomfrog
Sabrar
plytho

bessie
mpolo/Vicarin
SuicideJunkie

not-town
MoA
Mark_Cangila
wam


moody’s N3 results, 1 mistake:

Nice
bessie
Vicarin (town)
MasterOfAll
Mark_Cangila

Naughty
LaserGuy


From moody’s results, non-town are LaserGuy and one of [MoA, Mark]

mpolo’s results:
N1 Sabrar and MoA are co aligned.

Mark’s results:
N2 bessie and MoA are co aligned.
N3 bessie and Vicarin are co aligned.

If all the cop results are true, LaserGuy and Mark are non-town.

@Mark, what is your win condition?

@LaserGuy, why didn’t you target MoA last night, like Sabrar requested?


I have doubt that all the cop results are completely true. First is because it would mean I am wrong about the setup. Meh, I guess it could happen. Second is because I do not believe MasterOfAll’s claims that he targeted Sabrar with a message on N1 and N2.

I targeted Sabrar N1 and N2 and blocked MoA’s message. Prior to D4, I already doubted MoA’s claim because Sabrar was targeted by someone else N1 that was not blocked, but it was inconclusive because of the mod interpretation of what is most harmful. With today's flips, it appears Sabrar was also cursed by SuicideJunkie N1 or N2. I block one ability, the most harmful. There is no way I blocked a harmless message over a curse.

@MasterOfAll, do you want to modify your claim?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:16 am UTC

bessie wrote:@LaserGuy, why didn’t you target MoA last night, like Sabrar requested?


He asked me to swap you and moody. I don't recall him ever indicating anything to me beyond that.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:05 am UTC

bessie wrote:It is unknown if Vicarin used the roleblock/double vote. Everyone is verified by someone else except moody.


I think it's possible that Vicarin withheld for fear of creating a vote imbalance in a potential LYLO situation.

Did you have chat with Sabrar?

Mark_Cangila wrote:I did target Vicarin and Bessie with XOR in order to make a block. Vicarin and Bessie are aligned. I think MoA is likely godfather, as he has been saying odd things through the game, going back to his vanilla claim on D1.


Can you explain why you picked the players that you did? Looking at this post, it appears that you had a strong townread on Vicarin already and bessie was already cleared by your power on a prior night. Why not follow Sabrar's plan and target me with someone with a townclear? Or target moody so we know we can trust his results? Aside from the fact that Vic was killed, this pairing doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby MasterOfAll » Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:34 pm UTC

Did Sabrar request LaserGuy to target me on N3? Wouldn't that violate LG's previously claimed cannot-target-a-player-twice condition?

@LaserGuy - was it cannot target a player twice, or just not 2 nights in a row?

@ bessie - No modifications to my role claims possible. I have been completely honest about them.
I'm a little bit unclear about your ability. Are you saying that you target a player each night and then the 'most harmful' action targeting that player is blocked? And you chose Sabrar both N1 and N2 and then Mark N3 as your targets? So, the player you target is not prevented from performing their abilities, but rather protected from 1 ability that targets them, yes?

bessie seems to believe that she is solely responsible for Sabrar not receiving the messages I sent him on N1 and N2, but I find it interesting that Sabrar also claimed to know why those messages were not received, and then I had my own theories (into which I cannot go into detail due to the specific rules of this game) on why those message did not go through. But, basically, I'm pretty sure that actions on N1 and N2 are more convoluted than bessie is assuming.

Also, if bessie protected Mark from the 'most harmful' action on N3, and I gave him a piece of coal which he has confirmed that he received, then doesn't that imply that someone else also targeted Mark last night with something *more* harmful than receiving coal? (Maybe Vic tried to roleblock him?) We know that LaserGuy targeted bessie and moody, and I have been assuming that moody's list ability doesn't count as 'targeting'. I don't actually know that for sure. My (mod corrected) positive result might have been due to N1 coal recipient moody including Vic in his list.

Honestly, bessie's claim makes things more confusing for me. I am 99% sure that moody is town. And about 85% sure that bessie is town. And not at all sure about LaserGuy or Mark_Cangila. I get why Mark is trying to call me out as the Godfather, because if we follow the cop then the only logical conclusion is that LaserGuy + Mark are non-town. I really do think it is best if we lynch one of those 2 today, and then if somehow they end up not being scum, then we know that we really are in a hunt-the-godfather situation when 3 of us are alive on D5.

Yeah, from my point of view, the best choice is to assume that there are still 2 scum alive today and we are in LYLO, and we should lynch either LaserGuy or Mark today. And, assuming that LG+Mark really are scum, any vote for someone other than them ends the game.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:53 pm UTC

I disagree. MoA has acted scummy all game. There is most likely a GF and he is most likely GF. We need to lynch him today. I know I'm town, and therefore moody's list must have issues. And the issue is a MoA GF.
Vote: MoA

@Bessie: I am town and have the town wincon.

I targeted Vicarin and Bessie because I was in a bit of a time crunch, and I wanted to ensure that I had found a townie block.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby bessie » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:00 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote: - We can potentially rule out the player-submitted ability if LaserGuy switches bessie and moody tonight (I originally wanted you to test MasterOfAll because GF-possibility makes Cop-results somewhat untrustworthy and I still feel he's someone to be monitored closely).
LaserGuy, I thought you read this the same way I did. Yes.

MasterOfAll wrote:bessie seems to believe that she is solely responsible for Sabrar not receiving the messages I sent him on N1 and N2
No, you must have missed this:
bessie wrote:Second is because I do not believe MasterOfAll’s claims that he targeted Sabrar with a message on N1 and N2.


MasterOfAll wrote:But, basically, I'm pretty sure that actions on N1 and N2 are more convoluted than bessie is assuming.
I don’t know about that, I have a pretty convoluted mind. And interesting word choices, of both convoluted and assuming.

MasterOfAll wrote:Also, if bessie protected Mark from the 'most harmful' action on N3, and I gave him a piece of coal which he has confirmed that he received, then doesn't that imply that someone else also targeted Mark last night with something *more* harmful than receiving coal?
LaserGuy already claimed he targeted Mark last night, see here.


MasterOfAll, what do you think killed Sabrar?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby MasterOfAll » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:56 pm UTC

@bessie, my assumption is that SuicideJunkie's power is responsible for Sabrar's death. The relevant section from his role reveal is
Each night, you may place a curse on one player. That player will remain cursed for the rest of the game. If you are ever lynched, all players who voted for you and were cursed will also die.
And, yes, that implies that his curse got through your protection of Sabrar. Which means that redirects/roleblocks/shenanigans must somehow be responsible. In other words, you might have been protecting some other player due to a redirect and my message didn't get to Sabrar for some reason totally unrelated to you. Or maybe you successfully protected Sabrar from being NK'd on N1 and the curse therefore got through as the lesser of 2 evils, and again my message to Sabrar didn't go through for some reason totally unrelated to you.

Like I said, I think that the real explanation will end up being quite convoluted. (the mods and deceased players are probably laughing at this point, "No, the real reason is so simple!")

I did forget about LaserGuy's claim of targeting Mark with some target-revealing bells which were apparently blocked.

@bessie some more, does the 'sleeping herbs' flavor that LG mentioned tie in with your (previous) role flavor?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:59 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote: - We can potentially rule out the player-submitted ability if LaserGuy switches bessie and moody tonight (I originally wanted you to test MasterOfAll because GF-possibility makes Cop-results somewhat untrustworthy and I still feel he's someone to be monitored closely).


LaserGuy, I thought you read this the same way I did. Yes.


Retrospectively, I see what you are talking about now, but no, that wasn't how I read it. Subtlety is not my strong suit... I think this has come up before at some point ;) I was also thinking that you were probably the inventor so I wasn't really looking for any hidden messages from Sabrar.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:08 pm UTC

bessie wrote:@moody, you should vote first so we can see your vote show up in the votals to prove you weren’t roleblocked.


Considering that it's quite possibly LYLO, I'd want to be real careful with that. Then again, Mark has already popped off and everyone else has posted, so :?

I can quote two snippets that might give a simpler explanation for Sabrar's demise. It looks like it's just a coincidence that he didn't have the lowest post count end of D3.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:58 am UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:And, yes, that implies that his curse got through your protection of Sabrar. Which means that redirects/roleblocks/shenanigans must somehow be responsible. In other words, you might have been protecting some other player due to a redirect and my message didn't get to Sabrar for some reason totally unrelated to you.
And where may I ask is this supposed redirect/roleblock/shenanigan coming from? Everyone has flipped, or has claimed and their power can be verified by another player.

MasterOfAll wrote:Or maybe you successfully protected Sabrar from being NK'd on N1 and the curse therefore got through as the lesser of 2 evils, and again my message to Sabrar didn't go through for some reason totally unrelated to you.
Theory: Sabrar was targeted on N1 by me, SuicideJunkie with curse, and you with kill, and I blocked the kill. N2 Sabrar was targeted with message, and plytho and BoomFrog were targeted with kill, and I blocked the message. Non theory: It wasn’t wam. wam targeted Sabrar.

MasterOfAll wrote:@bessie some more, does the 'sleeping herbs' flavor that LG mentioned tie in with your (previous) role flavor?
Yes.

LaserGuy wrote:Retrospectively, I see what you are talking about now, but no, that wasn't how I read it. Subtlety is not my strong suit... I think this has come up before at some point ;) I was also thinking that you were probably the inventor so I wasn't really looking for any hidden messages from Sabrar.
Did you also miss this?
LaserGuy wrote:@LaserGuy: can you speculate aloud who the possible 3rd scum would be if Mark is the 2nd?


moody7277 wrote:I can quote two snippets that might give a simpler explanation for Sabrar's demise. It looks like it's just a coincidence that he didn't have the lowest post count end of D3.
Sure, I would be interested in hearing any alternate theory you have about Sabrar’s death. Unless it involves SuicideJunkie being Sabrar’s neighbor, because he wasn’t. And no, Sabrar didn’t have a post restriction, but scum didn’t know that.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:59 am UTC

Screwed up my quote tags:

Did you also miss this?
Sabrar wrote:@LaserGuy: can you speculate aloud who the possible 3rd scum would be if Mark is the 2nd?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:22 am UTC

I gave my thoughts of who I thought was mafia at the time here and here. I will do a full reads list either tonight or tomorrow depending on how the time goes.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:21 am UTC

bessie:

Goes after wam quite early in the game over a point of principle. The aggressive response here, and the scumread here as well feel very consistent with what I expect from Town!bessie. Aggressive D1 bus feels well outside her scum range at this point.... I think she would have picked on someone else and left wam alone. Probably Mark or plytho. Not buddies with wam. Independently, Sabrar seemed quite confident in Town!bessie and I feel like bessie would be self-conscious in a mixed-alignment chat that Sabrar would have picked up on. So I think she's probably straight Town.


Mark:


Very laconic and evasive this game. His early reads and subsequent retractions are very awkward; never really makes an attempt to clarify his positions. It's possible that he saved BoomFrog N1 from the NK N1 which would be a fairly solid clear at this point, but that has been muddied based on subsequent evidence from bessie that she also protected Sabrar N1.

There's other parts about how his claim about protecting BoomFrog happened that I don't care for as I've mentioned before, but less sure that it is necessarily indicative of anything since originally I thought it implied Boom and Mark are buddies. I suppose retrospectively it could be that Mark knew he hadn't blocked the kill and that's why his claim was so weird, but I don't think I'm going to put a lot of weight on this point.

Mark's votes on wam here and here don't seem well-motivated... possibly a bus. Cross-referencing, wam does briefly push Mark D1 but moves his vote quickly; puts Mark at scummy D2 but I think wam would bus scum!Mark in this situation if they're buddies.

Target choices for his cop feel safe to the point of being ineffective. bessie was looking townie D1/D2 and MoA already had a result on him; mpolo/Vicarin were looking townie D1-D3 and bessie already had a result on her. Cross-referencing with a known Town is a plausible strategy for this type of role, but choosing other targets who are already likely Town makes his usage here extremely ineffective.

Content on the whole feels persistently evasive and unhelpful. I think he's probably scum. Plausible buddies with wam.


MoA:

Uncertain about this interaction with wam. wam shouldn't have expected MoA to respond strongly to his confirmation analysis, so MoA's scumread here feels plausible to me. Coasts on this read for most of D1/D2. Possible wam encouraged him to bus, but I'm not getting a particularly strong buddy vibe between the two of them. Cross-referencing with wam, I think wam's defensive votes here and here are less likely to be aimed at a buddy. On the whole I don't get as strong buddy vibes between MoA/wam as I do between Mark/wam, but I can't rule this combination out entirely. Noting that Mark has already voted MoA implying that at least one must be scum if we are indeed in LYLO.

Content has been borderline active-lurky for much of the game. More focused on mechanics and claims than trying to sort people. Townie points for willingness to hammer SuicideJunkie given the bomb claim. There is the problem of the missing messages that is very strange. If my understanding is correct, MoA claims to have send a message to Sabrar, but neither arrived on N1/N2. N2 AFAIK nobody targeted Sabrar except MoA so this is a confirmed block. N1 is strange because bessie ought to have blocked Mark's curse unless there was a more dangerous ability (presumably a kill) also targeting Sabrar. But this still doesn't explain the message. Even weirder:
bessie wrote:Non theory: It wasn’t wam. wam targeted Sabrar.


Not only did bessie not block SJ's curse, she also apparently didn't block wam's redirect. But would scum target Sabrar with both a redirect and a kill? I don't have a great hypothesis for how this all fits together. Just a note on this that SuicideJunkie's curse power was not a power associated with him being a serial killer per se (though it's a very convenient one for him to have) but was just the power he ended up with, so there's no reason to assume that it is unblockable. I need to think more on this.


moody:

His been posting some decent analysis as the game has progressed; I liked his D2 claim and subsequent analysis of it. Tonally his content feels very townie, especially for moody.

Minimal interactions with wam on either side. moody puts wam and sort of neutral-to-scummy but never in voting range; wam has an ordered list with moody at the bottom but votes MoA early in the game, and otherwise has moody neutralish. I'm not sure I believe wam would have claimed cop had he been buddies with moody having such a cop-like power. I think Town!moody with his power being completely sane implies GF!MoA or GF!Mark.


On the whole I'm going with

Town
LaserGuy
bessie
moody
MoA
Mark
Scum

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:37 pm UTC

jimmod wrote:Sabrar was wearing a Neighbourizing Suicide Vest.

jimmod wrote:Example negative effects are greedy investigative powers (e.g. mass cops) giving false results or greedy protective or obstructive powers might backfiring in some fashion (e.g. making a kill unblockable).


I figure that Sabrar tried to do something fancy with inventing a way of getting chat with someone (the timing with SJ may or may not have been coincidence), maybe even try to turn someone town (pro: strong enough to trigger a backfire, con: name would indicate not), and the negative effects kicked in.

In terms of opinion for the rest of the game:

--bessie is in the definite town category, not going to consider scenarios which say otherwise
--If LG is town or GF, we only have one scum left, otherwise there are two scum and we're at LYLO. My previous analysis was that he was in the group with SJ that had one scum, and so should be cleared. Assumptions made in this analysis included MoA's status not messing up results.
--My opinion of MoA has ridden on mpolo's claim about he and Sabrar. GF would mess this up.
--I've been reading Mark pessimisticly all game. Being the first to vote in a potential LYLO is not a point in his favor.

BTW, everybody can use the lack of a speedlynch to eliminate {bessie, LG}, {bessie, moody}, and {LG, moody} as potential scumteams.

Project for D4: develop independent read of MoA.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:41 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I gave my thoughts of who I thought was mafia at the time here and here. I will do a full reads list either tonight or tomorrow depending on how the time goes.
Hahaha, you and I both have issues with breadcrumbs, I rarely get them either. It was supposed to be this:
can you speculate aloud who the possible 3rd scum would be


Re your read of me: :) :o :( :x :shock: :lol: No, subtlety is not your strong suit. :P

LaserGuy wrote:Not only did bessie not block SJ's curse, she also apparently didn't block wam's redirect. But would scum target Sabrar with both a redirect and a kill?
Yeah, Sabrar questioned both these things too after wam’s flip. For the first, I pointed him to my previously discussed theory that MoA targeted him with a kill (not a message) which I blocked. A redirect is less harmful than a kill. For the second, I had a vague theory in my head, but was not able to articulate why in writing. I’ll think about it a bit more, but I’m afraid a thorough analysis of either of these points would violate Rule #7.

LaserGuy wrote:Just a note on this that SuicideJunkie's curse power was not a power associated with him being a serial killer per se (though it's a very convenient one for him to have) but was just the power he ended up with, so there's no reason to assume that it is unblockable.
If it was unblockable, it should have been in his flip per Submitted Role Mechanics #6:
Sir jimModmacdoodle wrote:Flips will reveal all role details including hidden mechanics.


moody7277 wrote:I figure that Sabrar tried to do something fancy with inventing a way of getting chat with someone (the timing with SJ may or may not have been coincidence), maybe even try to turn someone town (pro: strong enough to trigger a backfire, con: name would indicate not), and the negative effects kicked in.
Yep, he did. Everything with Sabrar has to be complicated. But I’m his Neighbor-Lover, not SuicideJunkie. If one of us was NK’d, both of us would have died. Sabrar tried to give me the vest on N1, and got it back himself.

And per Submitted Role Mechanics #5:
Sir jimModmacdoodle wrote: No alignment-changing roles.


I will try to have some updated reads tonight. As usual, I am 99% certain I will not be available at deadline, so if anyone wants to engage me on anything, please post within the next 36 hours.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby MasterOfAll » Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:09 am UTC

bessie wrote:And where may I ask is this supposed redirect/roleblock/shenanigan coming from? Everyone has flipped, or has claimed and their power can be verified by another player.
Simple answer: from hidden mechanics of the remaining roles, and from unknown priorities/interactions of night actions (wam's mirror, your protection ability, the previously theorized hidden mechanics).

bessie wrote:Non theory: It wasn’t wam. wam targeted Sabrar.
Sorry, you lost me here.

I do agree that a N1 possibility is that bessie saved Sabrar from the mafia kill, but it certainly wasn't from me. I think we all agree that the only way I could be mafia is if I am a godfather (I'm not, but let's assume for just a moment that I am), but then it really wouldn't make any sense to have the godfather perform the N1 kill when the scum team had no idea what sort of tracking/watching abilities were in the game.


Since I am trusting moody and his results, I will reiterate that the only possible scenarios from my point of view are:
1. A LaserGuy-Mark scum team
2. A lone godfather remaining (from pool of LaserGuy, Mark, bessie)

I am willing to vote for either LaserGuy or Mark today (and nobody else) and if they end up being mafia, then it will be obvious to lynch the other one tomorrow. If the one we lynch today ends up being town, then at least we reduced the pool of possible godfather by 1 and we get 1 more shot tomorrow.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:37 pm UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:
bessie wrote:Non theory: It wasn’t wam. wam targeted Sabrar.
Sorry, you lost me here.

I already explained this here:
bessie wrote:Sabrar tried to give me the vest on N1, and got it back himself.

It concerns me that you do not seem to be trying to figure out what may have actually happened with the night actions. The only analysis you are doing is presenting theories relating to how you did not perform the night kill.


MasterOfAll wrote:Since I am trusting moody and his results, I will reiterate that the only possible scenarios from my point of view are:
1. A LaserGuy-Mark scum team
2. A lone godfather remaining (from pool of LaserGuy, Mark, bessie)
If all cop results all are sane, truthful, true, etc, than LaserGuy and Mark are both non-town, but not necessarily a team. Why are you not considering this possibility?

Cursed Ventriloquist role wrote:You may also send anonymous messages. You may send a single message to up to half the remaining players (rounded up) each Night.
MasterOfAll, why did you send five messages on N1 instead of six?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:55 pm UTC

Drive-by post as I go to bed. Don't forget that deadline is 8pm UTC on Monday, i.e. approximately 21 hours time. I will try to get a votals post etc up in the morning.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby moody7277 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:31 am UTC

MasterOfAll

Spoiler:
D1
post 1: apologises in advance for any lurking, joke vanilla townie claim, joke vote on SJ
post 2: reasures SJ about the RVS, metaread on the mod, open to discussing LG's D1 mass claim
post 3: disputes one point on mass claim, thinks it's more useful later, point for LG using it as discussion starter. explains joke claim
post 4: disgruntled at weak reasoning in wam voting for him, switches to voting wam

Putting together wam's flip and the point in the day for this, I am dismissing distancing in this case, which looks good for MoA

post 5: Harumphs at wam's claim it's an OMGUS. reads list (with an inverted format for town->scum), me and wam scummiest, Madge and BF towniest

I'm sure Cynical View would have something to say about the formatting

post 6: deadline correction
post 7: response to plytho saying his read of me is lacking in depth, complaining about Mark's posting
post 8: responses to Sabrar about his superficial level posting, picking out why he finds Madge townie, and role claim which coincides with one we've since seen flip.

Ends the day with his vote on wam, having done little in the way of digging into the game, for which he was the alternative wagon of D1 with two confirmed town, one very likely town, and one scum.

D2
post 9: message recipient list, reads based off cop reports with Sabrar, mpolo, BF looking good, bad about LG. scum NK thwarted somehow
post 10: reasoning behind list, reports of success with messages, town->scum list with me and Mark scummiest, Sabrar and mpolo towniest
post 11: fluff
post 12: likes my claim, theory that there is GF due to 3 cops, agrees with Sabrar about his analysis, Mark and wam votable
post 13: dislikes that post restriction is a possibility, example from previous game
post 14: apology for holiday lurking, votes wam
post 15: questions mpolo's read of Mark, new town->scum list. me promoted to middle of the road, otherwise very similar
post 16: removes Mark from votables because of N1doc!Mark possibility
post 17: finished with D2
post 18: updates town->scum list with wam and LG lowest

Open to all cop claims, including the person he's had most scummy for all game to here. Doesn't seem to be developing his own ideas.

D3
post 19: Confirms LG's trade of his role with BF.
post 20: spec about submission of wam's role. coal report summary, with explanation for later. LG and SJ look worst by PoE
post 21: N2 message summary, hoping to track role redirections and such
post 22: claims coal as tracking device, so far no results. Some analysis of my N1 list results, concludes GF likely exists with some setups
post 23: paranoid case on me being scum
post 24: response to Vic about reading him and Sabrar as town based on cop results, Mark seen as untrustworthy
post 25: still trying to work out no kill N1, this time wrt wam's flip.
post 26: adds to post 25 about assuming 2NKs
post 27: wants claims from his scummiest (LG and SJ), townier people can wait until D4.
post 28: edits list to include Vicarin subbing in
post 29: disbelief in SJ's claim, votes SJ

A small amount of digging into the game (some analysis, some banter).

D4
post 30: no results on coal, new person selected to get some. review of N1 list given new data, scum either single GF or LG+someone, asks bessie about my old role
post 31: repeats role usage from N1 and N2
post 32: expands on coal mechanics, delayed watcher, utility limited
post 33: positive hit on Vicarin, source was Mark
post 34: trying to figure LG switching mechanics, discussion with bessie: role fully claimed, her idea about protecting Sabrar and Mark. concludes LYLO with LG and Mark
post 35: figures Sabrar died due to curse, some speculation on hidden variables
post 36: still trying to sell bessie on hidden variables, reiterates his idea of the game situation, LG and Mark only votables


Points in his favor: he was on wam for two game days, voted for him both times, and was right. voted for SJ, has a confirmed town saying he is co-aligned with another confirmed town. Points against: has floated quite a lot in his opinions of what was going on, possible GF counters cop result. Final score: +4.5

In light of modly deadline warning, I'd want to put my chit on Mark. Probably make that official tomorrow morning my time.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby moody7277 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:10 pm UTC

Good morning. As promised, here's my vote.

Vote: Mark_Cangila
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:44 pm UTC

The knights were running ahead, arguing over what they should do when they finally caught up with the Mouse. It took a while for one of the group to look around and realise that Sir Jimbob and his entourage were nowhere to be seen. The group stopped and waited. After a few minutes, Sir Jimbob emerged from back down the path, strolling casually forward.

"What are you lot standing around for? We don't have long left before nightfall, and we must rush on! Go!"


Votals:

MasterOfAll (1): Mark_Cangila
Mark_Cangila (1): moody7277

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. As things stand, MasterOfAll would be lynched.

Deadline in a little over 6 hours, at 8pm UTC today. Countdown timer.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:25 pm UTC

We really need to lynch MoA in my opinion. As Bessie has stated, he didn't use his power to the full one day. He is clearly a GF. The chance of there not being a GF in a game like secret santa is so ridiculously low. Not only that, but 3 scum with 1 SK, and 2 mafia with 1 GF makes far more sense than 4 scum. What would the fourth scum be? Another mafia member? Another indie? Who knows? It makes so much more sense to lynch MoA.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby MasterOfAll » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:16 pm UTC

bessie wrote:If all cop results all are sane, truthful, true, etc, than LaserGuy and Mark are both non-town, but not necessarily a team. Why are you not considering this possibility?

MasterOfAll, why did you send five messages on N1 instead of six?
I just don't think we started with a 2 team mafia, a SK, and some other non-town. A 3 team mafia plus SK makes more sense to me.

On N1, I also interpreted my role details to mean I could send 6 messages (due to there being 11 players alive) but checked with the mods before trying to send messages, and was informed that I didn't count towards the player total for that math, so 10 non-me players meant 5 messages, and on N2 9 non-me players still meant 5 messages.


I am happy to follow moody's lead here (and I previously said I was willing to vote for Mark today) and so . . .

Vote: Mark_Cangila

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 14, 2019 3:55 pm UTC

I'm happy with Mark lynch but won't hammer right away in case bessie has anything she wants to contribute.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:56 pm UTC

Why yes, I do have something to say.

No one has been able to offer an explanation as to why Sabrar died, except me. Sabrar was targeted N1 by wam (redirect), mpolo (cop), bessie (rolestop), SuicideJunkie (curse), MasterOfAll (message or kill). I confirmed with the mods on D1 that my rolestop applied to factional kills, and to killing powers that were part of a role. moody, you know how my role pm is written, in what universe is a message the most harmful power in that list?

If there is a D5 get MasterOfAll.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:11 pm UTC

Vote: Mark

Let's see where we end up.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:20 pm UTC

That's hammer. Will post day end post later.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:23 pm UTC

The chase to track the Mouse had exhausted everyone. Running in full-plate armour was not exactly the easiest of tasks. Why anybody thought it was a good idea to leave the horses behind was not clear at all. Darkness was falling, and there was still no sign of their prey. The hound seemed to be uncertain by the scent after a day of chasing.

Somebody mentioned about stopping, and that was that for the day, as each knight sank to the ground, worn out. Five minutes later, the squires carrying all the camp gear, showed up.

“How did you get here so fast?” gasped Sir Moody, in between breaths. “We’ve been running for hours!”

The squires looked at each other uncertainly, before the youngest piped up, “Milord, you have been going round in circles. The camp is only 10 minutes walk from here. When we realised what was going on, we decided to stop following you and climb a hill to watch as you went by over and over again, and just waited for you to stop.”

The group of knights glared at the squires, but couldn’t keep it up for more than a fraction of a second, before they collapsed again.

“Well men,” Sir Jimbob said, “it would seem that the Mouse of Weihnachten has been leading us on a merry goose chase. Perhaps we should take a rest. However, before retiring to your tents, I must ask you to nominate one person to go and trace down where it went.”

The knights grumbled among themselves. One or two even muttered something about “nice warm beds” out of earshot of the leader. There was a difference of opinion about who to nominate, and nobody seemed eager to do it. However, a consensus eventually formed, and with that Sir Mark_Cangila sighed, got up, and left the camp, walking into the rapidly darkening woods alone.


Mark_Cangila has been lynched.

Votals:

Mark_Cangila (3): moody7277, MasterOfAll, LaserGuy
MasterOfAll(1): Mark_Cangila

Not voting: bessie

It is now night. Please submit your night actions. Night deadline in about 47 hours. Deadline timer: https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/c ... nt=cursive.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:06 pm UTC

Of Dogs and Mice


The next morning, Sir Jimbob was woken up by shouting coming from the centre of the camp. He emerged from his tent, to see Sir bessie complaining to one of the squires about something.

“What’s the matter?” he asked. Sir bessie, indicated the cage behind her. Inside was her hound, locked away, and staring imploringly with puppy-dog eyes at everybody who would look. It looked very sad. “I got up this morning to find my dog locked away in here. And now nobody is claiming to have the key.”

“Huh, how strange,” replied Sir Jimbob. “Oh well, there’s not much that can be done about it. We’ll get the blacksmith to let the dog back out when we get back to the ca…”

A shout came up from another direction, from one of the squires. “My lords, you’d best come quick! Something has happened!” he in a panic-stricken voice. The two knights, followed the squire, and were joined by Sir LaserGuy and Sir MasterOfAll, who were both emerging from their tents to see what the fuss was about. A short way up the path was a body lying on the floor. Sir Jimbob rolled him over with his foot. It was Sir moody, with a lump of coal stuffed in their mouth. Their eyes were closed, although after checking, a very faint pulse could still be felt.

“Quick, best get him back to the castle. The apothecaries will be able to sort them out. Coal choking is well within their repertoire, I’m sure.” The other knights looked at each other with worried glances, before following Sir Jimbob back to Sir moody’s tent. In it were the knight’s belongings, including a sack containing various strange herbs and plants, scrolls, and stoppered-up bottles. Some were mysterious, but overall they seemed to be remedies and spells to hold off evil spirits and the like. Otherwise, they seemed to be organised and tidy.


moody7277 has been killed. They were Sir Dancer the the Curious, member of Town. They had a piece of coal.
Spoiler:
Character Name: Sir Dancer the Curious

Flavour:

Rumours say that Saint Nicholas has a Naughty and Nice list that he checks twice. It’s a theory you’ve thought to try out. Exactly how you can tell who is and isn’t nice is not very clear, but you’ll give it your best shot.

Role: Mistledon’t

Mechanics: Each night, you may target a player. That player will become immune to the next power to target them. If multiple powers target them on the night this ability is used, the most harmful one will be blocked. If the target is not targeted by any other ability that night, they become immune to the first power to target them the following night.

Win Condition: You are a member of the Town and win when all threats to Town have been eliminated, and at least one member of Town is still alive.

Hidden Mechanics: None (the exact order of precedence will not be revealed).
The knights emerged from their tent to see Sir Mark_Cangila walk back into the camp, holding a small cloth bag.

“Ha! I told you I could do it alone. Sir SuicideJunkie was a great inspiration to me, seeking to take on the beast with determination. I present to you the Dreaded Mouse of Weihnachten!” they shouted triumphantly.

They emptied the contents of the bag out onto the floor. Out fell a small, regular field mouse. The rest of the party looked on, and then began to laugh.

“You think that’s the Dreaded Mouse??” cried Sir LaserGuy.

“The castle cat can take on bigger beasts than that,” agreed Sir MasterOfAll.

Sir Mark went redder and redder. It took a while for the laughter to die down, until eventually Sir Jimbob raised a hand, trying to look as solemn as possible, but at the same time, clearly suppressing a smirk.

“I think you have just shown your incompetence, Sir Mark. Congratulations. I don’t think you have any reason to be here now, and I suggest you return to the castle. Perhaps you can assist the squires with carrying Sir moody back?”

“Fine! I’ll show you all one day.” The humiliated knight threw their pack at one of the squires, scattering and various books and devices everywhere, before marching off. Some were things like magnifying glasses, and books by “How to be a Great Detective”.


Mark_Canigla was lynched. He was Sir Wong the Balanced, Serial Killer:
Spoiler:
Character Name: Sir Wong the Balanced

Flavour:

You have travelled far from your homeland seeking a noble court to join. Now you have found it, and I trying to teach those present the wisdom of for balance in all things. You try to both give and take away from each other noble, despite what they want.

Power: XOR cop

Mechanics:
Each night, select 2 targets. You will receive a “Not Town” result if exactly 1 of the targets is not Town. If both or neither target are Town, you will receive a “Town” result.

Win Condition: You are an Underdog. You do not currently have a win condition. If you die before gaining one you will lose. You become a member of whichever faction is eliminated first or would otherwise be end-gamed (e.g. you will become Town if Town mislynch at LYLO, or will gain an independent’s win condition if they are killed before achieving their win condition).

Hidden Mechanic: If both targets use a targeted night action, their intended targets are swapped. If either target is immune, then receives No Result.
"Right, does anybody have any suggestions as to what to do next?” Sir Jimbob asked.

A loud squeak came from a tree overhead in response. Everybody looked up. There, sat in a branch was the Mouse. It looked at them and then jumped away. The knights drew their swords and started running after it again.


It is now Day 5. Deadline will be on 8pm UTC, Monday the 21st (I can’t make it much sooner due to other commitments, but will try to find some time if hammer falls earlier than that).

Votals:

None

Not voting: Everybody

With 3 alive, it takes 2 votes to lynch.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D5)

Postby MasterOfAll » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:03 pm UTC

OK, so I was wrong about LaserGuy and Mark being teammates. Mark starting the game with a TBD win condition is interesting, but I don't think it changes any of the previously made conclusions regarding moody's list results.

Updating moody's N1 result:
town
LaserGuy
Boomfrog
Sabrar
plytho

bessie
mpolo/Vic
SuicideJunkie


not-town
MoA
Mark_Cangila
wam


So, the 3 mistakes were SuicideJunkie, LaserGuy, and me.

And the more recent list, with 1 mistake . . .

Nice
bessie
Vicarin
MasterOfAll
Mark_Cangila

Naughty
LaserGuy

So I am very curious what spin LaserGuy is going to try using to invalidate moody's results.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D5)

Postby MasterOfAll » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:06 pm UTC

Oh, and it probably doesn't matter, but I did give a piece of coal to LaserGuy last night, and looked for coal residue on moody, and received a result of "yes, coal residue".

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D5)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:32 pm UTC

Obviously I'm a hidden miller and you're a godfather. It's the only thing that makes sense. :wink:

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D5)

Postby bessie » Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:12 am UTC

I’m working out all the night actions now (though I kinda want to make MasterOfAll do it and see what he comes up with).

Ok, hmmmmm..........

LaserGuy, are you even going to try or are we done here?


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