Trump presidency

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sardia
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:49 am UTC

Thesh wrote:Apparently Trump actually rejected funding for the wall, because he believes the federal workers are Democrats.
https://mobile.twitter.com/funder/statu ... 1841214466

So he would prefer to keep government closed purely because he wants to harm Democrats. His supporters will overlook it though, because they are absolutely fucking terrible people.

Is there like, a real source behind this? Is he a reporter, with a soon to arrive article? Because I heard that government are Democrats line before, along with the FBI one. I thought his aides already reminded him that Mueller doesn't stop if the Government shuts down.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby The Great Hippo » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:31 am UTC

Soupspoon wrote:Heck, even with no-one attacking the wall, it's probably going to stop being an effective wall for various other reasons.
The fact that an actual border wall would take literally years to survey (to avoid having it collapse, sink, crack, crumble, or otherwise fall) -- and Donald Trump intends to do it in six months? -- tells you everything you need to know about the border wall.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ucim » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:18 pm UTC

... and everything you need to know about Trump's construction savvy.

On another note, it really irritates me to see the press acting as if Trump is actually trying to govern, and wondering why {foo} or how {bar}, when the answers are drop-dead obvious if you substitute the premise that he is not trying to govern, but rather, playing in a sandbox. With us in it.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:10 pm UTC

Trumps business model

1) make big deal about construction project
2) acquire excessive loans for project
3) hire lowest quality workers he can find
4) project completed poorly
5) refuse to pay workers
6) refinance the debt, taking on additional loans using project as collateral
7) run away with the money before project collapses
8) launch smear campaign against anyone who complains


We already skipped to the "not pay workers phase", but hey, the guy is flexible

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:24 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Trumps business model

1) make big deal about construction project
2) acquire excessive loans for project
3) hire lowest quality workers he can find
4) project completed poorly
5) refuse to pay workers
6) refinance the debt, taking on additional loans using project as collateral
7) run away with the money before project collapses
8) launch smear campaign against anyone who complains


We already skipped to the "not pay workers phase", but hey, the guy is flexible

You forgot evade taxes, since it's the one thing he's good at.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:26 am UTC

sardia wrote:You forgot evade taxes, since it's the one thing he's good at.


But that's present in virtually every last business plan on the planet. Not all business plans involve refusal to pay workers or smear campaigns against critics, even if that's most business plans...

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby orthogon » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:02 pm UTC

gd1 wrote:A stone wall is subject to acid. A steel wall can be cut through with a saw. Why not an imaginary wall? It's impossible to damage it. Much cheaper. Congress would approve of it. It's see through just as requested. Never rusts. Construction time is very short. No issues with land property rights. It can be protected by intellectual property rights. So many advantages...

The Emperor's New Wall? "Mr President, this wall is so transparent that only a very stable genius can see it".
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gd1 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:02 am UTC

orthogon wrote:
gd1 wrote:A stone wall is subject to acid. A steel wall can be cut through with a saw. Why not an imaginary wall? It's impossible to damage it. Much cheaper. Congress would approve of it. It's see through just as requested. Never rusts. Construction time is very short. No issues with land property rights. It can be protected by intellectual property rights. So many advantages...

The Emperor's New Wall? "Mr President, this wall is so transparent that only a very stable genius can see it".


Transparency is very important.

Though in light of current news, is it possible that Putin is trying to foment division in the American populace? If that is the case, is there anything we can do about it?
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby elasto » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:21 am UTC

gd1 wrote:Though in light of current news, is it possible that Putin is trying to foment division in the American populace?

It isn't just possible, it happened and continues to happen.

Well before the Trump era, the Russians set up hundreds of Facebook/Instagram etc. groups on every wing of the spectrum from Black Lives Matter to Blue Lives Matter to Trans-Rights to Christian Right etc. and had them basically all go to war against each other*.

They got hundreds of millions of clicks/views and no doubt acted to divide and polarise us. They also piled heavily in on the side of Trump - making efforts to stir up votes on the right and depress votes on the left.

Of course, 'you can't cheat an honest man' and the animosity had to already exist in society to some degree to be fomented in this way, but there's no doubt it had an effect - perhaps enough of an effect to get Trump over the line since he really didn't win by very much.

New Knowledge's report is due to be made public by the committee this week along with a separate report, also commissioned by the committee, that found the IRA [Russian trolling group] was active on every social media platform and sought to help Trump win. The Washington Post reported the details of the separate report, by Oxford University's Computational Propaganda Project and Graphika, a network analysis firm, on Sunday.

The separate report shows that Russians working at IRA divided Americans into key interest groups in order to target messaging, the Post reported.

The Russians focused on turning out conservatives to vote with messaging about gun rights and immigration, according to the Post, and spread misinformation to left-leaning African-American voters about how to vote and tried to undermine their faith in elections.

Many other groups, including Latinos, Muslims, Christians, gay men and women, liberals, Southerners and veterans, were also targeted by thousands of social media accounts controlled by Russians, the Post reported.


One of the authors of the report can be heard in a 3 hour interview on the Joe Rogan podcast if you really want to dive deep into the detail.

(*Obviously I'm not saying most such groups were Russian trolls - most were genuine in the sense of being run by Americans - but a good number of subversive and divisive ones were manufactured and directed by the IRA)

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:15 am UTC

elasto wrote:Of course, 'you can't cheat an honest man'


Yes you can, if you ever manage to find one.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby elasto » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:01 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:
elasto wrote:Of course, 'you can't cheat an honest man'

Yes you can, if you ever manage to find one.

I agree. It's a saying, but like most sayings, it's not literally true.

Isn't it interesting though that, of all the things you could have commented about in my post, with all the ways you could have expanded upon it to greater inform me and others, instead your instinct was to seize upon a disagreement. In another context that could have sparked conflict despite us being 99% on the same side.

(Don't worry, I'm exactly the same... :D)

@gd1: In microcosm that's why the Russian trolling worked and continues to work, and, no, imo there isn't anything we can do about it.

Harmony is boring. We'll manufacture conflict even where none has any right to exist, let alone where there are legitimate grievances...

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:28 pm UTC

In terms of expansion, well, I've always been amazed at the comments section of teh graniaud or the beeb. As can be expected, they used to be far left (The Guardian) or center-left (BBC). As soon as the Euro-refugee crisis hit, all the comments suddenly shifted in tone to be vehemently against immigration, to the point where those articles never have comments open. Not sure if the Russians were in part behind that one.

Not helping things was the mass sex assault in Koln, specifically the reporting. It was all over social media on Jan 1st, yet neither the beeb or gran even mentioned anything until at least Jan 5th, which kiiiinda leads credence to conspiracy theories. After all, if the media is "clearly" trying to squash major anti-immigrant stories, what more minor anti-immigrant stories HAVE the squashed?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby SDK » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:47 pm UTC

elasto wrote:One of the authors of the report can be heard in a 3 hour interview on the Joe Rogan podcast if you really want to dive deep into the detail.

Maybe I'm dumb, but I'm having trouble finding the name of the authors of that report, or the podcast you're talking about. Little help?
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Pfhorrest » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:19 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:As soon as the Euro-refugee crisis hit

Is there an actual change in immigration to Europe that suddenly happened, a real crisis, or is that like America's own immigration "crisis" where nothing has much changed but suddenly conservatives are throwing conniption fits about "armies" of refugees "invading" through Mexico?
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Dauric » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:57 pm UTC

Pfhorrest wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:As soon as the Euro-refugee crisis hit

Is there an actual change in immigration to Europe that suddenly happened, a real crisis, or is that like America's own immigration "crisis" where nothing has much changed but suddenly conservatives are throwing conniption fits about "armies" of refugees "invading" through Mexico?

Wikipedia: European Immigrant Crisis

If I'm understanding the reading I've done and the various articles I recall correctly the grand upshot of the European Refugee Crisis looks like this:

A big chunk of those refugees are fleeing conflicts in Syria and Iraq. Most refugees stopping in neighboring Turkey (making Turkey's human rights issues somewhat more of a problem than they would be otherwise), Jordan and Lebanon, but others have moved on through to Europe. The E.U. Human Rights regulations (specifically the Dublin Regulation) that regulate where an asylum seeker can file for asylum (to prevent "Asylum Shopping", or finding the most favorable place to file for asylum in the E.U.) are making nations bordering the Mediterranean bear an outsized burden of processing and housing these refugees and they're a bit torqued off about it, some nations closing their borders to refugees or boats in the Mediterranean Sea (which is another flavor of crisis as boats filled with refugees are dying because they're not allowed to make port.)

In theory this closing of borders is against E.U. human rights regulations, however with Brexit testing the unity of the European Union, and many of the countries closing their borders were forced in to austerity measures by the E.U. (mostly by Germany as they have the lion's share of economic power in the E.U.), which increases the potential of a total breakup of the E.U. if they come down hard on violating those regulations.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Zamfir » Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:57 pm UTC

Pfhorrest wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:As soon as the Euro-refugee crisis hit

Is there an actual change in immigration to Europe that suddenly happened

Yes, there was a huge change in numbers of asylum seekers Here's a telling graph (it fits with numbers from other sources):
Image

The number for 2016 was similar to . 2017 and 2018 have been much lower, around half a million. That still would have been peak years in the period before.

The US actually went through the same peak, but both peak and average were about a factor 10 lower. Asylum applications are not a big part of US immigration.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby elasto » Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:47 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
elasto wrote:One of the authors of the report can be heard in a 3 hour interview on the Joe Rogan podcast if you really want to dive deep into the detail.

Maybe I'm dumb, but I'm having trouble finding the name of the authors of that report, or the podcast you're talking about. Little help?

Much apologies - her name is Renée DiResta and she was on Sam Harris podcast #145 rather than Rogan's.

(Thoroughly recommend both podcasters if you want serious long-form discussion of topics, though Rogan generally has a more eclectic range of guests.)

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby SDK » Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:56 pm UTC

Cool, thanks. I'll look that up.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Soupspoon » Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:52 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:far left (The Guardian) or center-left (BBC).

The Grauniad far left? Left-leaning, maybe, but it by far aint no Socialist Worker.

Meanwhile the Beeb so often gets seen as too leftish by those on the right and too much in tune with The Establishment by the true Leftists. With the added 'bonus' that as only the party in power is… well… in power…, they generally report more about things that the HMGovernment is doing wrong and less so about what HMOpposition is thinking about doing wrong, so they're 'obviously' swung a bit the opposite of whatever the county is currently being run as... Granted that this has mostly resulted in them appearing to be leftward-looking over the last forty years.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:52 am UTC

Soupspoon wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:far left (The Guardian) or center-left (BBC).

The Grauniad far left? Left-leaning, maybe, but it by far aint no Socialist Worker.



The comments, not the paper itself.


Re: Euro Immigration Crisis

Bear in mind that that 1-1.5m asylum seekers per year? The US, with a smaller population than the EU, takes in that many legal immigrants every single year, and a similar number of illegal immigrants. More, actually, if we include the people deported and returning.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Chen » Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:30 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Re: Euro Immigration Crisis

Bear in mind that that 1-1.5m asylum seekers per year? The US, with a smaller population than the EU, takes in that many legal immigrants every single year, and a similar number of illegal immigrants. More, actually, if we include the people deported and returning.


You know theres a difference between asylum seekers and all immigrants right?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:23 am UTC

Sure, yes, but not much difference between illegal immigrants and asylum seekers.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Chen » Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:42 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Sure, yes, but not much difference between illegal immigrants and asylum seekers.


Maybe between those entering illegally and asylum seekers (both have to arrive at the border). And that number is an even smaller portion of the total immigrants the US sees. Your post comparing asylum seeker numbers with overall immigration is a nonesense comparisson.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:23 pm UTC

The US has around 11 to 12 million illegal immigrants, and that's with the amnesties and naturalizations and so forth. So how many illegal immigrants do you think the US took in each year? It's about the same as the number of refugees Europe took in, only for decades instead of a couple of years.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby addams » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:03 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Sure, yes, but not much difference between illegal immigrants and asylum seekers.
Oh! Yes, there is!
Spoiler:
My own lovely child was an illegal immigrant in Europe.
She was not fleeing anything, other than being, just, another young woman making her way in the U.S.
After ten years she is now legal and living happily in Europe.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Chen » Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:20 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:The US has around 11 to 12 million illegal immigrants, and that's with the amnesties and naturalizations and so forth. So how many illegal immigrants do you think the US took in each year? It's about the same as the number of refugees Europe took in, only for decades instead of a couple of years.


Estimate (wikipedia, granted) is 6-7 million illegal entries at about half a million a year.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ObsessoMom » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:38 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:The US has around 11 to 12 million illegal immigrants, and that's with the amnesties and naturalizations and so forth.


Huh? Naturalizations? What are you talking about, in the context of illegal immigrants?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:54 pm UTC

ObsessoMom wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:The US has around 11 to 12 million illegal immigrants, and that's with the amnesties and naturalizations and so forth.


Huh? Naturalizations? What are you talking about, in the context of illegal immigrants?


Marriage to citizens, etc

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gd1 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:23 pm UTC

I'm not sure, but it feels like the single point of failure here might not be Trump, but Mitch Mcconnell. He won't bring a bill to the floor because he says it won't pass. Unless he's got a crystal ball he doesn't know that. If the senate passed it and Trump vetoed it they could override him (because if they didn't it might hurt the senate members who voted against doing so in the next elections). I might be missing something though.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Zohar » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:35 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:
Huh? Naturalizations? What are you talking about, in the context of illegal immigrants?


Marriage to citizens, etc

It is an incredibly difficult (and lengthy) process for an undocumented immigrant to end up with citizenship. My friend who overstayed his visa has been married to a citizen for over ten years and is still only eligible for a green card.

gd1 wrote:I'm not sure, but it feels like the single point of failure here might not be Trump, but Mitch Mcconnell. He won't bring a bill to the floor because he says it won't pass. Unless he's got a crystal ball he doesn't know that. If the senate passed it and Trump vetoed it they could override him (because if they didn't it might hurt the senate members who voted against doing so in the next elections). I might be missing something though.

It's both of them - both the president and the republican senate are responsible for this. You're right - they can easily choose to vote on the same bill they agreed to before this fiasco started, the same bill Nancy Pelosi put on the house floor. But that would complicate matters with the president, and they're all scared of doing that. It doesn't help that Trump won't say what he's willing to sign on, or that he's a giant baby unable to talk with people if he has a tantrum.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ObsessoMom » Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:45 pm UTC

(Cross-posted with the above)

CorruptUser wrote:
ObsessoMom wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:The US has around 11 to 12 million illegal immigrants, and that's with the amnesties and naturalizations and so forth.


Huh? Naturalizations? What are you talking about, in the context of illegal immigrants?


Marriage to citizens, etc


I don't think naturalization means what you seem to think it does.

If you are a visa-holding non-citizen married to a US citizen, and your visa expires, you are not automatically naturalized (i.e., endowed with citizenship). You still have to leave and apply for authorized re-entry at a US consulate in your country of citizenship. This happened to my brother-in-law. When his visa expired, he had to return to India and wait several months while his application for legal authorization to return was processed, even though he was married to my sister, a US citizen.

Naturalization is a long, complicated, rigorous process. And even if you are married to a US citizen, you might not qualify to become a US citizen, especially if the US government determines that you were ever here illegally. They really frown on that sort of thing. And all isn't forgiven just because you are the spouse and/or parent of US citizens.

My brother-in-law didn't want to become a US citizen, because although the US allows people to hold joint citizenship, India doesn't, and he didn't want to give up his Indian citizenship. He would have preferred to remain a citizen of India for the rest of his life. He didn't apply for US naturalization until he decided that voting against Donald Trump was his sacred duty as a decent human being.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby saint71 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:33 am UTC

I don't think Trump will win again in 2020.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gd1 » Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:26 am UTC

Zohar wrote:
gd1 wrote:I'm not sure, but it feels like the single point of failure here might not be Trump, but Mitch Mcconnell. He won't bring a bill to the floor because he says it won't pass. Unless he's got a crystal ball he doesn't know that. If the senate passed it and Trump vetoed it they could override him (because if they didn't it might hurt the senate members who voted against doing so in the next elections). I might be missing something though.

It's both of them - both the president and the republican senate are responsible for this. You're right - they can easily choose to vote on the same bill they agreed to before this fiasco started, the same bill Nancy Pelosi put on the house floor. But that would complicate matters with the president, and they're all scared of doing that. It doesn't help that Trump won't say what he's willing to sign on, or that he's a giant baby unable to talk with people if he has a tantrum.


I mean that an override is possible.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Zohar » Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:03 pm UTC

Yes, I am aware. But that won't happen until the republican party is ready to actually stand up to this obnoxious caricature.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Thesh » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:54 pm UTC

https://www.vox.com/2019/1/17/18186818/ ... cane-funds

Trump tried to withhold disaster relief funds from Puerto Rico. So, yeah, what a total piece of shit.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Angua » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:07 pm UTC

And the pettiness continues. Trump tweets passive aggressive letter at Nancy Pelosi telling her to cancel a foreign trip. The wording is ridiculous.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46911478

Also, the pictures the BBC has been using for a while with both of them with their mouths open has been annoying me to no end. Wouldn't be hard to use photos where they aren't halfway through talking. No one looks good in that shot, you're not making any points.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby teelo » Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:13 pm UTC

Democrats in the House passed another bill to re-open parts of the government, but like past attempts, it is expected to fail in the Republican-led Senate.

The new stopgap bill proposes to re-open the government through 28 February.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has refused to take up any legislation that does not have the president's approval, and has accused Democrats of wasting time.
As a citizen of a country that has a unicameral parliament, I don't understand: what is the purpose of having a congress/senate legislation system? Seems to just be there to delay passing laws even longer.

You have one party controlling congress, and a different party controlling the senate. You really expect opposing parties with opposing values to cooperate?

That situation is theoretically possible here, a 40% party and a 40% party unable to get a majority vote from minority parties, unable to pass the national budget. If enough time passes with a stalemate in parliament, our government shuts down, but the Governor-General (or the Queen) is expected to step in and call for another election.
Last edited by teelo on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:24 pm UTC, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Thesh » Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:22 pm UTC

teelo wrote:Seems to just be there to delay passing laws even longer.

That was literally the reasoning behind it. Basically, the founding fathers were really cynical about democracy and most of the decisions they made were about trying to protect the system from irrational voters, and so at every turn they found a way to make the system less democratic.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby teelo » Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:26 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:
teelo wrote:Seems to just be there to delay passing laws even longer.

That was literally the reasoning behind it. Basically, the founding fathers were really cynical about democracy and most of the decisions they made were about trying to protect the system from irrational voters, and so at every turn they found a way to make the system less democratic.

I guess my actual question is: is there an advantage I'm missing?

NZ used to have a bicameral system about 130 or so years ago but voted it scrapped at some point.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby iamspen » Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:45 pm UTC

Representatives are elected by relatively small districts and are, in theory, the representatives of the people. Senators originally were appointed by state governments, two per state regardless of population, though are now also directly represented. So the chambers of Congress are empowered by different mechanisms and represent different interests.


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