Trump presidency

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby orthogon » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:07 pm UTC


Maybe I don't need to worry about Brexit after all.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Soupspoon » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:25 pm UTC

Calm down. That's obviously fake news, given there isn't anything actually going on. Trump's found time to go golfing, and we all remember how he promised that he wouldn't be golfing with so much else needing doing. Ergo, there's no crises. Unless it's something to do with his handicap.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby addams » Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:21 pm UTC

orthogon wrote:

Maybe I don't need to worry about Brexit after all.
(sigh...)
Yes...And...

A nice nuclear war and the following deep toxic winter might put an end to our worries about Climate Change, too.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby EdgarJPublius » Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:10 am UTC

Russia had already been violating the treaty with impunity and everyone knew it. I'm not sure pulling out ourselves is the right response, but ignoring Russia's flaunting of the treaty probably wasn't the right thing to do either and arguably emboldened Russia leading to their more recent shenanigans.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Link » Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:28 am UTC

Yeah, as much as I hate Trump, Putin's at least as much to blame for this one. Sure, Trump escalated the situation, but considering Putin's been violating this treaty for a while (along with stuff like annexing Crimea, lest we forget), it's safe to say we've been back in the Cold War for a while now, and Trump only cut out the pretence that we haven't.

Still, it wouldn't surprise me if WWIII happened at some point during my life, and needless to say that scares the shit out of me.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:11 pm UTC

Putin will eventually die of old age. That or mauled by an improperly sedated tiger during a staged "manly wrestling" photo shoot. His replacement might be less confrontational, and we may avoid WWIII that way.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Kit. » Sun Feb 03, 2019 6:54 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Putin will eventually die of old age. That or mauled by an improperly sedated tiger during a staged "manly wrestling" photo shoot. His replacement might be less confrontational, and we may avoid WWIII that way.

So far, Putin manages to keep a sort of balance between "sislibs" (economic technocrats) and "siloviki" (securocrats nostalgic for Soviet Union, with little understanding of economy) in his government. If Putin suddenly dies, this balance is likely to be broken, and unlikely in favor of "sislibs".

Think of Venezuela after Chávez, but this time with nuclear missiles and nuclear submarines.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby reval » Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:35 pm UTC

That treaty was itself an artifact of Cold War I. Longer ranges were supposed to provide more reaction time and cut down on the risk of a "false positive". It's not surprising to see the treaty abrogated in the leadup to a more complex and multilateral Cold War II. Security-minded bureaucrats will probably try to bring back something like the INF treaty at some point.

Whether they succeed, and whether they succeed in time, are of course open questions.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby cphite » Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:09 pm UTC

EdgarJPublius wrote:Russia had already been violating the treaty with impunity and everyone knew it. I'm not sure pulling out ourselves is the right response, but ignoring Russia's flaunting of the treaty probably wasn't the right thing to do either and arguably emboldened Russia leading to their more recent shenanigans.


Exactly. The treaty is moot if both parties aren't adhering to it; and Russia quite simply hasn't been adhering to it.

The US hasn't committed to deploying anything; we've simply put Moscow on notice that if they continue to deploy prohibited weapons, we'll deploy weapons to counter them.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:43 pm UTC

cphite wrote:
EdgarJPublius wrote:Russia had already been violating the treaty with impunity and everyone knew it. I'm not sure pulling out ourselves is the right response, but ignoring Russia's flaunting of the treaty probably wasn't the right thing to do either and arguably emboldened Russia leading to their more recent shenanigans.


Exactly. The treaty is moot if both parties aren't adhering to it; and Russia quite simply hasn't been adhering to it.

The US hasn't committed to deploying anything; we've simply put Moscow on notice that if they continue to deploy prohibited weapons, we'll deploy weapons to counter them.

This interview says you're wrong, and it's a mistake to leave the treaty. https://www.npr.org/2019/02/02/69101820 ... rol-treaty
the U.S., instead of pursuing them, said nope, doesn't matter. We're out of the treaty because you're cheaters unless they're all destroyed immediately. And so we're going to squander that unity. And what Russia really wants more than a military capability is a divided NATO. They want to see the United States separated from our European allies.

Everything Trump's administration does is bathed in incompetence, you'd think he was colluding with Putin. What a fucking waste.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby The Great Hippo » Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:51 pm UTC

Yeah, people here saying that it was the right move to leave the treaty don't seem to understand how treaties like this work?

ETA: Like, the US gets nothing for leaving this treaty. Russia gets to have its missiles, and the US loses any opportunity to organize international sanctions against Russia to punish them. Russia even gets to leave the treaty without losing face or credibility (the US did it first! They're not the bad guys, here!). This is lose-lose for the US and win-win for Russia. It was incredibly stupid to leave the treaty like this.

Honestly, this works out to Russia's favor so much that you have to wonder if Putin really does have that pee-tape.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby cphite » Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:12 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
cphite wrote:
EdgarJPublius wrote:Russia had already been violating the treaty with impunity and everyone knew it. I'm not sure pulling out ourselves is the right response, but ignoring Russia's flaunting of the treaty probably wasn't the right thing to do either and arguably emboldened Russia leading to their more recent shenanigans.


Exactly. The treaty is moot if both parties aren't adhering to it; and Russia quite simply hasn't been adhering to it.

The US hasn't committed to deploying anything; we've simply put Moscow on notice that if they continue to deploy prohibited weapons, we'll deploy weapons to counter them.


This interview says you're wrong, and it's a mistake to leave the treaty. https://www.npr.org/2019/02/02/69101820 ... rol-treaty


Meh. My two main facts were that Russia is already in violation - which he confirms; and that the US hasn't committed to new deployments - which he does not refute. As for whether or not withdrawing from the treaty was a mistake, I actually agree with him in principle - I'm just not sure I agree that it matters.

Bottom line is, the treaty only works if both sides hold up their end, or if it offers adequate leverage to force compliance. The first condition is already false; the second is tenuous at best.

the U.S., instead of pursuing them, said nope, doesn't matter. We're out of the treaty because you're cheaters unless they're all destroyed immediately. And so we're going to squander that unity. And what Russia really wants more than a military capability is a divided NATO. They want to see the United States separated from our European allies.

Everything Trump's administration does is bathed in incompetence, you'd think he was colluding with Putin. What a fucking waste.


The unity he refers to in the interview is NATO finally acknowledging the fact that Russia was in violation after being shown evidence for years; that isn't going to change in light of the decision to withdraw.

I would have preferred the administration at least make an effort to leverage the treaty, to try to coerce Russia into compliance - so I actually agree with Wolfsthal on that point. It would have allowed for diplomatic pressure and sanctions to try and get Russia back in line with the agreement.

But frankly, I'm not sure it would have worked. Russia is trying to regain it's status as the main power in the region; I think they're willing to take some diplomatic heat and even sanctions to get there.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby The Great Hippo » Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:11 am UTC

It might not have worked, but again: There's no benefit to withdrawing from this treaty. The US gains nothing (beyond the right to build weapons we don't even want to build). At best, this is Trump sacrificing diplomatic leverage for a soundbyte that sounds good to his base; at worst, it's handing Russia the perfect cover story to keep doing what they've been doing -- now without any risk of consequences. Either way, this decision hurts everyone who isn't Russia.

It's funny how his best defense here is that he's incompetent. If he actually wasn't a moron, I'd very much suspect the Russians do, in fact, have something on him.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby eran_rathan » Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:55 am UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:It's funny how his best defense here is that he's incompetent. If he actually wasn't a moron, I'd very much suspect the Russians do, in fact, have something on him.


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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Angua » Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:51 am UTC

I don't need an ethics watchdog to tell me this is an obvious abuse of office.

Surely this should disqualify him from running, or incur some sort of fine or something.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Sizik » Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:00 pm UTC

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Zamfir » Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:37 pm UTC

For a dollar, the possibilities are endless... I.C. Wiener !

Is it really a ethics violation though? The article says
In a solicitation, the Trump campaign asks supporters to "make a special State of the Union contribution to have your name broadcast on the Official Donald J. Trump for President livestream."

" Official Donald J Trump for President Livestream" sounds impressive, but I assume it's just a video on the website of his reelection campaign, watched by nobody.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby jewish_scientist » Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:45 pm UTC

Part of me want to tell people on 4chan about this, but another part of me still respects the presidency* enough to not want to intentionally send trolls after Trump. I feel 50/50 on the idea. What do you think?

*Not that 'presidency' is a different word than 'president' before you flip out and rant about how Trump is a national disgrace.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Soupspoon » Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:46 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:For a dollar, the possibilities are endless... I.C. Wiener !

GOOMHZ!

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Angua » Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:20 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:For a dollar, the possibilities are endless... I.C. Wiener !

Is it really a ethics violation though? The article says
In a solicitation, the Trump campaign asks supporters to "make a special State of the Union contribution to have your name broadcast on the Official Donald J. Trump for President livestream."

" Official Donald J Trump for President Livestream" sounds impressive, but I assume it's just a video on the website of his reelection campaign, watched by nobody.

That is a good point, however I still feel using a government event to publicise this sort of thing is an abuse of power.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby The Great Hippo » Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:26 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:Is it really a ethics violation though? The article says
In a solicitation, the Trump campaign asks supporters to "make a special State of the Union contribution to have your name broadcast on the Official Donald J. Trump for President livestream."

" Official Donald J Trump for President Livestream" sounds impressive, but I assume it's just a video on the website of his reelection campaign, watched by nobody.
Like a lot of things he does, it's not bad in any immediate or catastrophic sense -- but it represents a stark violation of ethical norms (in this case, treating the presidency as a commercial venture).

Trump has this weird affinity for taking bad things that happen out of sight and just doing them publicly in the most blatant way possible. On one hand, it's great we can now talk about this stuff without everyone denying it's a thing; on the other hand, we now have a president who's so okay with this shit that he doesn't even think to hide it.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Dauric » Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:48 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:... on the other hand, we now have a president who's so okay with this shit that he doesn't even think to hide it.

And that's not to mention the various flavors of supporters that either think A) all these ethics violations are perfectly fine, or B) are so trapped in hyper-partisanship that they think they have to be okay with it since the leadership of 'their team' is.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Thesh » Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:35 pm UTC

So a lot of people who were talking about their paycheck being higher didn't actually get as much of a tax cut as they thought, their employers simply withheld less of their paycheck for taxes due to other changes in the tax law and so they will either get less of a refund or owe money.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... ding-trump
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:55 am UTC

Thesh wrote:So a lot of people who were talking about their paycheck being higher didn't actually get as much of a tax cut as they thought, their employers simply withheld less of their paycheck for taxes due to other changes in the tax law and so they will either get less of a refund or owe money.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... ding-trump

Tldr people are stupid, and the misconception about the tax cut this year may hurt the popularity of the tax cut. The truth about the tax cut won't be realized, (rich get more out of it)but misplaced anger is convenient for Democrats... Assuming what vox is telling us isn't anecdotal.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Pfhorrest » Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:21 am UTC

FWIW my own anecdatum bears out the same. Biweekly paychecks increased about 3%, but now come tax season I have no refund at all for the first time ever. (Technically I owe a little for fed and get almost the exact same back from state). I make very close to the national median household income, so I'm probably pretty representative.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby addams » Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:27 am UTC

Yep..(sigh..)
Thanks for the confirmation, Pfhorrest.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Thesh » Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:22 am UTC

It might be different if you are married or have children, and the tax changes were partially designed to punish California for being liberal.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Chen » Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:04 am UTC

Definitely bad for planning purposes. Should hopefully teach people to not take refunds for granted especially because it doesnt take much of an increase over 26 (or 52) paychecks to eat up a usual or expected refund.

That said more money up front (less withholdings) is better for people. The biggest problem here is that they need to be aware of it to not cause problems and realize the advantage of getting more money earlier.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Pfhorrest » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:23 pm UTC

I'd ballpark estimate that the extra I kept in each paycheck adds up to about what I'd expect to have gotten in a refund, so for me at least it's pretty much a wash, and I wasn't counting on the refund for anything so overall it works out to a negligibly small positive in my particular case. (Not that I'm for these tax cuts generally, but I personally see pretty much a wash from them).
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Chen » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:50 am UTC

Pfhorrest wrote:I'd ballpark estimate that the extra I kept in each paycheck adds up to about what I'd expect to have gotten in a refund, so for me at least it's pretty much a wash, and I wasn't counting on the refund for anything so overall it works out to a negligibly small positive in my particular case. (Not that I'm for these tax cuts generally, but I personally see pretty much a wash from them).


You dont get interest on your refunds so no withholdings would technically be best. But its a hassel and would require discipline to take advantage of even if you could. Personally I like higher withholdings and a bigger refund just to avoid the hassel of worrying about owing money.

They changed the daycare subsidy here in Quebec and its now a function of your income and not the flat ~$8/day. BUT you still only pay the ~$8/day every day and then you get dinged at tax time for the difference. Shocked a lot of people that first year even though its advantageous to have the money earlier. People still hate it (myself included)

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby addams » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:54 am UTC

Pfhorrest wrote:I'd ballpark estimate that the extra I kept in each paycheck adds up to about what I'd expect to have gotten in a refund, so for me at least it's pretty much a wash, and I wasn't counting on the refund for anything so overall it works out to a negligibly small positive in my particular case. (Not that I'm for these tax cuts generally, but I personally see pretty much a wash from them).
Yes, but...
It is hard for paycheck to paycheck families to come up with the money to pay a Tax Bill.
Maybe, it won't hurt this year, it WILL hurt when the lower income Tax changes expire.
Chen wrote:They changed the daycare subsidy here in Quebec and its now a function of your income and not the flat ~$8/day. BUT you still only pay the ~$8/day every day and then you get dinged at tax time for the difference. Shocked a lot of people that first year even though its advantageous to have the money earlier. People still hate it (myself included)

Oh,..Chen!
$8.00 per day is an unheard of low amount to pay for daycare in the U.S..
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gd1 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 12:27 am UTC

Only the finest quotes from the Yahoo comment section (article name: 'Disgusting' razor wire must go, say U.S. border city residents):

Grizz
Grizz7 hours ago
@Adam Common sense is to teach your child to stay away from the wire. Duh! Courts would throw it out. Trump declare State of Emergency. All lawsuits handled through military tribunals that are already in place and active. In state of Emergency tribunals authority exceeds state, federal and Supreme Court. They have full jurisdiction. If Trump was smart. He should declare that February 16th. Shut Congress down and arrest most of the Democratic Party for treason and corruption. Trump has the backing of the military.

4 likes 3 dislikes


Part of me just wants them to get it over with.

Similarly, the comments on this video show that sentiments like this may have been brewing for a bit (particularly the airstrike one)/[Title of video: Inaguration Obama Chant! 1 million people chanting his name]:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rZF7uCaLDIQ

======

Trump Supporters Form Human ‘Wall’ Along U.S.-Mexico Border

Now who could have seen that one coming? Especially with the proud tradition of the human wall tactic up to this point. Their dedication would almost be admirable if it wasn't so horrifying.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby JudeMorrigan » Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:39 pm UTC

Well, at least it's not a "power grab" like making Election Day a federal holiday, amirite? :roll:

Seriously though, this is awful in so many ways.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby freezeblade » Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:57 pm UTC

Sure. Do this.

I hope the democrats use the same powers once in office to declare a national emergency on health care, or environmental issues and steamroll any republican obstruction in the process.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ucim » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:09 pm UTC

freezeblade wrote:I hope the democrats use the same powers once in office to declare a national emergency on health care, or environmental issues and steamroll any republican obstruction in the process.
... and upon success, the country will be continually in a state of emergency, where the rule of law is overridden by the rule of whoever our Supreme Leader happens to be.

It would, of course, be unsafe to have elections during a national emergency, right?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby freezeblade » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:43 pm UTC

Well, I guess he shouldn't declare a fake state of emergency to get his way then? It's opening the floodgates and everyone knows it, too bad he literally doesn't give a shit about anything except himself and appeasing his base, damn the facts and future repercussions.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ucim » Thu Feb 14, 2019 11:57 pm UTC

freezeblade wrote:Well, I guess he shouldn't declare a fake state of emergency to get his way then?
If he wants to succeed, he needs to declare this emergency, and then because we're in such a dire emergency, impose martial law and cancel elections for the foreseeable future. Divert all the armed forces to the vitally important Big Beautiful Wall, while our mortal enemy (Canada, of course) walks in with a few mounties and annexes the country.

We let them.

We then have nationalized health system, and Trump can get the mental care he so desperately needs.

Greater Canada and Mexico then form an alliance (Grecaxico), but Greece objects to the name and starts a war with us over it. [stop me before this gets too silly]...

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby addams » Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:38 am UTC

ucim wrote:[ (Canada, of course) walks in with a few mounties and annexes the country.

We let them.

We then have nationalized health system, and Trump can get the mental care he so desperately needs.

Greater Canada and Mexico then form an alliance.
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ech...I like it.
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If we had Canada's health system, building and environmental regulations with Mexico's enthusiasm we, just, might be Okay.
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idonno
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Joined: Fri Apr 03, 2015 3:34 am UTC

Re: Trump presidency

Postby idonno » Fri Feb 15, 2019 2:45 am UTC

freezeblade wrote:I hope the democrats use the same powers once in office to declare a national emergency on health care, or environmental issues and steamroll any republican obstruction in the process.
A state of emergency doesn't just grant all power to the President. It has to fit under something allowed by being in a state of emergency. I'm pretty sure the plan is to build the wall as a military construction project. Most of the powers that touch on what you want only allow for relaxing regulations not increasing them.

You might be able to strong arm some businesses by abusing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act but corporations almost certainly wield enough power in both parties to shut that down with a veto proof majority in no time.

Also, I suppose a president who doesn't value human life could use the power to suspend the laws regulating chemical and biological weapons (yes, in a state of emergency the President can suspend these laws and is even allowed to engage in human testing. I have no clue why this is still a law) and kill enough people to solve a lot of environmental issues but I'd rather we find a different solution.


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