Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:09 am UTC

plytho wrote:Why did no-one but BoomFrog respond to this? Do you all disagree so strongly it's not even worth responding to? Do you like losing cops?
I missed that Sabrar also responded :oops:
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:23 am UTC

Anyway

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:48 am UTC

plytho wrote:What? If you're going to claim, claim more than this. Like, why did you switch Mark and mpolo?


Two reasons: First, it is ambiguous in my role PM as to when my power is actually processed, so I wasn't sure (and the mods wouldn't clarify) whether it would interfere with night actions or only change the powers after the fact. I felt that targeting a player who was a scumread and one who was a hard null would be a safe way to verify this. I didn't want to target wam because it might have interfered with him getting a result; I didn't want to target MoA because I didn't want to dump his apparently terrible power on someone else. Mark/mpolo were the next best choices I had available.

Second reason was I felt Mark and mpolo were players who would likely reveal alignment indicative information upon being switched, and this would be useful in allowing me to read both of them. I'm fairly happy with how this has worked out. I was planning on claiming earlier, actually, but people's reactions were so interesting that I decided to let it keep simmering for most of the day.

I think lynch BoomFrog, protect Mark with the vote block might be the best strategy.


Why Mark instead of moody?

Right now we have tree cop powers. One of which is probably in the hands of scum. If we mislynch one and scum NK the other we have none left. I'd rather let scum do the cop-killing. That does require us to do the hard job of finding scum outside of Mark and wam.


I don't have a good feel for if the net positive benefit in terms of night results from lynching someone less likely to be scum than these two is worth the increased risk of a mislynch. I think we get more clarity from lynching wam or Mark.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby mpolo » Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:29 am UTC

If you can manage it somehow, I'd like to ask for a replacement — I am not finding the time I hoped to find, and I will be completely offline from Jan. 7-16, which is going to be major gametime here.

I can try to limp along until you find someone.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:04 pm UTC

Ugh, that LaserGuy claim messed up my theory. I thought BoomFrog was soft claiming role switcher (by calling it gift switching and by saying he thought a townie had it.

Mark targeting BoomFrog with the protect made sense if they knew it would become public knowledge. Otherwise Mark's claim is looking very scummy and we wouldn't believe the protect part of it.

So the only way it would become public knowledge is with the role switching. But now LaserGuy claims he did it.

Which could hold up the theory with LaserGuy as Mark's buddy. But LaserGuy has been trying to lynch mark.

@LaserGuy: Mark instead of moody because a BoomFrog town flip would pretty much confirm mark and through that Mark's result.

I don't think I want to lynch mark anymore.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:05 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:How about you also answer my questions?
I was getting to it, but with my limited time other messages and analysis were a priority.

BoomFrog wrote:Because wam is lynch-bait. He's always scummy, and I've seen nothing extra scummy about him this game.
But it was enough so you put him second scummiest here. You can't have it both ways.
No one was really unusually scummy D1 compared to their standard content, our collective town to scum list practically matched Bessie's "no content meta reads list". Our vote-off was practically random. Second scummiest was hardly a strong position. (same reason bessie and LG were able to come down so much from D1, although bessie is mostly back up)
BoomFrog's D1 wam read wrote:wam's content is quite scummy, but he is scummy as town as well. I'm still leaning scum on him but am reluctant to vote him off D1 and I think his alignment will be revealed more as the game goes on.
A slight scum lean D1 is nothing to write home about. I don't see how you see inconsistency in this read. "nothing" extra scummy might be an oversimplification, but even now with his terrible reads list I won't be shocked if wam is town. wam is lynch-bait.

BoomFrog wrote:Well if the gift switcher dosn't cooperate then we know they are scum, since it's an obviously beneficial move for town.
Except when the player is stubborn and s/he has other ideas (see Madge in Shakespeare III). Breaking the game only works if we mass-claim and can avoid rule 7.
Sure, a stubborn player would have to justify themselves later and we'd evaluate that. Everything is flexible, but we had reasonable confidence that the gift switcher would be pressured into being cooperative. With 3 claimed cops and some kind of protective power and the gift switcher we had enough to work with to be very likely to gain a lot of info each night. You're not even trying to break the game a little.

BoomFrog wrote:Also, that is absurd that you consider wam to be "leading" since he is only leading due to Vote of Mod.
Why would that be a 'Vote of Mod'??? It clearly comes from an ability, meaning someone found wam scummy enough to place it on him. How is that different from any other vote?
It could be from a player who is also voting normally and therefore a double vote. Having a double vote doesn't make me feel your scumhunting is worth more then others. Also an unclaimed vote has a higher chance of being scum motivated then a normal vote since it's less traceable.

BoomFrog wrote:Alright, analysis time.
You're not analysing the scenario where scum!wam is actually telling the truth. It's a convenient result either way. This is especially relevant in the most likely 'wam is scum and lying and there is a GF' scenario.
If wam is scum but telling the truth and there is a GF, then scum is wam, LG/Bessie/Me and one other. In this case we are really left with just regular scumhunting. This is the most ambiguous situation, the cop analysis doesn't really help here.

BoomFrog wrote:Conclusions:
Mark is probably scum.
This is not a valid conclusion from the analysis alone. Just from a pure math pov you have scenarios 1 and 3 where Mark would be scum, 5 as town, 2 and 4 could go either way. However looking at it from math pov is also wrong.

BoomFrog wrote:If wam and moody are town then Sabrar is mafia GF.
This is incorrect. Mark + GF (from plytho, SJ, bessie, LaserGuy, BoomFrog) + 3rd scum (from bessie, LaserGuy, BoomFrog) also satisfies all Cop results.
As I quickly said earlier, I'm not trying to look only from math, so that's not very relevant. Including regular scum hunting in the mix my conclusions seem sound to me.

BoomFrog wrote:I won't advise on who specifically to pick since that would let scum know if they need to prioritize killing/RBing you or not.
So why has this not happened? Why was cop!wam left alone? Refer to WoT3 once more.
Indeed, I question why wam lived through the night. That's part of why I've been assuming that Mark's protection of me wasn't what stopped the NK. But there may be a lack of strongmen/ninja on the mafia team and they were reluctant to target the obvious target. There is so much ambiguity in NKs that it is hard to safely draw conclusions.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:15 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:BoomFrog:
his Sabrar/bessie/moody reads all seem quite o.O to me.
Sabrar is driving the game. But is he driving it in a good direction? I guess we'll see if wam flips scum or not. But until then we have no evidence that his contributions have been townie. (And I have evidence that at least one of his reads is wrong, so why is it surprising that my read is different then yours?) Why have you not at least considered the point of "Sabrar is not trying to break the game"?

BoomFrog wrote:moody - Cop claim is unlikely to be generated by him on his own. I doubt he is scum unless he has a bold scum partner, mostly only Sabrar and maaaaybe
Bessie - Seems like she is trying to figure things out and is reasonably confused. I think scum!Bessie would have gone on the offensive by now, probably on plytho. Not sure but leaning town.

I forgot to finish my sentence apparently on the moody read. That was going to say "maaaaybe LaserGuy". Besides the implication that Bessie would be the one to get moody to false-claim cop was anything else shocking about my moody and Bessie reads?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:19 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:If you can manage it somehow, I'd like to ask for a replacement — I am not finding the time I hoped to find, and I will be completely offline from Jan. 7-16, which is going to be major gametime here.

I can try to limp along until you find someone.

Please presubmit your night action if you can, just in case. And make like 3 useless posts just so we can get your post count up for Sabrar.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:20 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Stuff

Why haven't you gotten your post count up like Bessie asked?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:41 pm UTC

I'm not the best at people, but here's my feelings. I'll check how it lines up with others later.
Pondering this stuff seems to have led to a dream involving minions trying to stuff people into glass cases in an FPS game theme.

-=Nice=-
Moody - Liking the power aim and results

Bessie - Still looks legit
Mpolo - Cop sorta-counterclaim on Wam

Plytho - Feels pretty townie.
Sabrar - Hopefully I'm not overrating in compensation for missing the spoiler D1
Laser - Overrated, but probably decent
Boom - Not sure about legitimacy, good activity, possible ties to mark

MoA - Buoyed by Mpolo's cop, not sure how much influence it should be.
Mark - Weak performance, Moody's results are more pressure. Possible relation to Boom.

Wam - Cop claim under pressure sorta-counterclaimed, I think I was fooled by a somewhat obvious gambit.
-=Naughty=-

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:45 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Why haven't you gotten your post count up like Bessie asked?


Because I just woke up half an hour ago and just finished catching up?
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:48 pm UTC

Anyway, no lynch is bollocks, and BoomFrog looks ridiculous for suggesting it. A bunch a of people are voting wam, me and a few more are after Mark. I am not offended by either of these since we either get someone who looks really scummy or test the origin of one of the cop claims, while still having two available. That's the only oddity I've seen from him, so he's still sitting at slightly townie. May change if wam turns up town.

BTW, Sabrar is right that making a list not an every night thing.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:18 pm UTC

"Mi'lord, some of the group are complaining of being tired. Perhaps we should take a break?"

"What? Half of them have been asleep for most of the day! Once they have made the decision who will be given the honour of taking on the Mouse, then we will stop, no sooner!"


Votals:

Mark_Cangila(3): moody7277, wam, LaserGuy
wam(5): Sabrar, MasterOfAll, Mark_Cangila, bessie
BoomFrog(1): plytho

Not voting: mpolo, SuicideJunkie, BoomFrog

With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Deadline is 9pm UTC, Saturday, 29th December 2018, a little under 4 hours from now. Deadline timer: https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/c ... nt=cursive

We have a replacement available for mpolo, who will replace in during the Night.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby mpolo » Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:56 pm UTC

I guess I'd better post something. But I haven't read the thread yet. But I'm posting anyway. Come back, O Sabrar. Speak to us!
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby mpolo » Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:57 pm UTC

Sabrar post! Sabrar post!
Show us all the way!
O what fun it is to rhyme in a rushed and raucous eve'ning!

Sabrar post! Sabrar post!
Show us all the way!
O what fun it is to rhyme in a rushed and raucous eve'ning!

(Sung to a possibly recognizable tune…)
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby mpolo » Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:59 pm UTC

Padding post count!
Useless content!
With short lines!
Saves me time!
Round yon mafia, indie and town,
Throws his hands up and then sets them down!
Sleep in heavenly peace.
Sleep in heavenly peace.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby mpolo » Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:28 pm UTC

So Sabrar isn't actually saying that he is prevented from having more than the lowest post count, but we are suspecting that he has this restriction, right.

LaserGuy's power doesn't indicate much about alignment. It did give me a better idea of what was going on.

Why did I think Mark scum => BoomFrog scum? That's a good question, and I don't know what I was thinking. I guess it was the stomach virus talking.

I did at least skim the last two pages. Maybe I can manage another post later, but I fear not.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:38 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Maybe I can manage another post later, but I fear not.
You’re good. Thank you, and I hope you feel better soon.

D2 post count:
Spoiler:
bessie: 15
BoomFrog: 35
LaserGuy: 13
Mark_Cangila: 18
MasterOfAll: 10
moody7277: 11
mpolo: 13
plytho: 33
Sabrar: 8
SuicideJunkie: 14
wam: 11

MasterOfAll wrote:I don't have anything else to say here on D2
You’re up. There’s been more than a page of content since your last post. Do you have anything to add before end of day?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:35 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Why did no-one but BoomFrog respond to this? Do you all disagree so strongly it's not even worth responding to? Do you like losing cops?
My feelings can be deduced from this:
bessie wrote:
Mark_Cangila wrote: If you find someone you think is scum, lynch them.
+1, QFT, dude you read my mind . . .
I don’t like losing town, I do like lynching scum.


LaserGuy’s reason is. . . reasonable. Will think about it.

BoomFrog wrote:No one was really unusually scummy D1 compared to their standard content, our collective town to scum list practically matched Bessie's "no content meta reads list".
I was wondering if anyone actually read and thought about that list.

BoomFrog wrote: wam is lynch-bait.
So is Madge (Snark, Lataro, Vytron, Peaceful Whale, . . .). So is moody, which is why I policy don’t vote him on D1 (which you used to scum read me in Crossover). But it is D2 and content is expected to improve. You can make some allowance for a scummy player’s meta in reading them, but it can’t be your entire read, like “wam is always scummy and its NAI so he’s not votable”. If so, what then is the purpose of analyzing content in this game? I’m sure Sabrar can link to arguments I’ve had with him on meta vs content.

BoomFrog wrote: As I quickly said earlier, I'm not trying to look only from math, so that's not very relevant. Including regular scum hunting in the mix my conclusions seem sound to me.
Is wam included in your regular scum hunting?

SuicideJunkie wrote:I'm not the best at people, but here's my feelings. I'll check how it lines up with others later.
Yes, this is the way you want to do it. We want to know how you feel about everyone, not how you feel your list compares to other lists. And it’s suspicious if you need to use other’s reads to make your own.

MasterOfAll, it’s safe for you to post. Unless wam decides to post, 11 will be the lower bound.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:49 pm UTC

As the sun began to set, a group of knights came to Sir Jimbob, to declare what they had agreed upon.

“After spending much time in silent deliberation and contemplation, we have decided that the honour of slaying the Dreaded Mouse of Weihnachten should fall to Sir wam. A few others felt that for his assistance last night, Sir Mark_Cangila was more deserving, but the majority has decided.”

“Very well,” replied Sir Jimbob, “the honour shall fall to him.” Under his breath he muttered “it should have been me, for I am the greatest here, but we must observe this supposed democracy rule.”

The group of knights approached Sir wam who had already started to prepare himself for a good (k)night’s sleep. Sir Sabrar spoke on their behalf. “Sir wam, we have a Christmas gift for you. However, first, you should get yourself fully armed and armoured, and we will blindfold you to make it a surprise.”

Sir wam didn’t look too sure about this plan, but with 5 large armoured knights surrounding him, he didn’t exactly have much choice. He got himself ready, and one of the others grabbed a strip of cloth to tie around their victim’s eye slit. Suitably prepared, they escorted up the nearby hillside, to where his destiny awaited him. Once near the summit, the knights undid the blindfold, and all but Sir bessie and Sir wam immediately dashed back down the hill.

“You have been given the honour of defeating the Dreaded Mouse up on the summit. We all know that you deserve this chance,” Sir bessie explained gradually retreating backwards down the hill, shouting as they got further away. “Don’t return without its head, or your honour will be forever tainted for spurning this opportunity.”

With that, Sir wam was left alone on the hill. Only time would tell what would happen to the unfortunate victim…


Votals:

Mark_Cangila(3): moody7277, wam, LaserGuy
wam(5): Sabrar, MasterOfAll, Mark_Cangila, bessie
BoomFrog(1): plytho

Not voting: mpolo, SuicideJunkie, BoomFrog

wam has been lynched.

Don’t forget that you may not read spoilers until notified by the mods.

It is now Night. Deadline is 6pm UTC, Monday 31st December (shortened to not conflict with New Year's celebrations here). If people need more time during this window due to New Year’s Eve, please let us know.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:24 am UTC

Effective immediately, Vicarin replaces mpolo.

We are still waiting on some night action submissions. Please send them in ASAP, or you risk not having an action!
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Dec 31, 2018 7:31 pm UTC

It's come to my attention that I forgot to state in the rules post that players may not target dead players. However, that is an intended rule. I am updating the rules post accordingly.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:08 am UTC

Night deadline has passed. You may no longer change your action. Result PMs and D2 flavour should be posted in the next 12 hours, but I'm going to bed! Happy New Year!
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Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:57 am UTC

D3: Christmas Chaos


For many, the following night was not a quiet one. Many of the knights were up to various schemes and plots to make sure their agenda was fulfilled or to try to prepare themselves for the next day. The next morning, they emerged from their tents to see freshly fallen snow on the ground. Some of the party decided to go and have a dip in the freezing water of a nearby lake, whilst others watched over the squires preparing the morning meal.

Eventually, Sir Jimbob called the knights together. One of the knights approached the group rather sheepishly, wearing only a thick nightgown. The other knights suppressed sniggers.

“Sir moody, why are you not properly attired for the day's dealings?” Sir Jimbob asked. “I don't think a quest can be performed wearing such a ridiculous outfit.”

“Some prankster decided to steal my clothes during the night. It'll take a while for my squire to fetch some replacement,” Sir moody replied.


Moody7277 is voteless today. He may not vote.

“Hmmm… Okay…,” grumbled Sir Jimbob. “Also, it looks like we are two members short. Squire! Go and see what has become of Sirs plytho and BoomFrog.

“Now, onto today's affairs. Sir wam has not returned from his solo quest. Our scouts went up the hill to see if they could ascertain what happened. They returned to report that the Mouse is still alive, and that there was no sign of Sir wam. All that could be found of him were the remains of his pack. Worse, from rooting through his remaining belongings, I have determined that he is a traitor to this quest, and was apparently in league with one or more others. He was carrying a strange mirror, which a few of our experts here have evaluated.”


Wam was lynched. He was Sir Alan the Annoying, a member of the Mafia:
Spoiler:
Character Name: Sir Alan the Annoying

Flavour:

Whether laughing too loud at dinner at the Round Table, or having your horse accidentally step on a squire's foot, you've got an uncanny knack of making people's lives more "interesting". This time, you've drawn the ire of the court magician, and he's decided to give you something as a "lesson" in being careful.

People don’t particularly like you being around, so together with XXX, you plan on teaching them a bit of a lesson.

Role: Merlin’s Mirror

Mechanics: Each night you may use the mirror on any other player. Their actions will be redirected based on the mirror image of the player list. E.g. If Player 1 targets Player 2 on the player list, they will be redirected to Player N-1, where N is the last player on the list.

Win Condition: You are a member of the Mafia, together with XXX. You win when all others have been eliminated, and at least one Mafia member is still alive, or nothing can prevent this from happening.

Factional Ability: You have access to a factional night kill. Please inform the mods who you wish to kill each night, and which Mafia member will perform the kill. You have day and night chat with XXX. Feel free to create a quicktopic, or use PMs, but please CC the mods in all communication.

Hidden Mechanics: The player using the mirror will automatically have one permanent vote on them the following day, as long as the game is not in LYLO.

They continued to discuss their plans for a few more minutes. It was clear that something else needed to be done about the Mouse of Weihnachten, if this quest was to be successful. Eventually, Sir Jimbob's squire returned and spoke quietly to the leader of the expedition. His report given, he hurried away.

“I'm afraid to report that Sir plytho has vanished and that Sir BoomFrog was found unconscious in their tent,” Sir Jimbob explained. “Sir BoomFrog has been taken back to the castle, and our quest must continue without them both. The squires have dug through their belongings to see what they can find out about them. Apparently, Sir plytho was attempting to communicate with spirits, and Sir BoomFrog appears to have been learning to practice ventriloquy. Quite what they were hoping to achieve, I don't know… Anyway, let us proceed forth in honour of them!”


Sir plytho has been killed. He was Sir Rudolph the Pious, a member of Town.
Spoiler:
Character Name: Sir Rudolph the Pious

Flavour:

Years of mediation and study have allowed you to transcend this mortal coil and speak directly to the spirits of the dead. The omnipresent spirits follow you everywhere and guide your actions.

Role: Spirit Knight

Mechanics: Each night you may chat with all players who died since the start of the previous Night (except for players who were mod-killed). The chat will be in a single group chat. You may use a quicktopic or PM as you see fit. Please include the mods in all communication.

Win Condition: You are a member of the Town and win when all threats to Town have been eliminated, and at least one member of Town is still alive.

Hidden Mechanics: None
Sir BoomFrog has been killed. He was Sir Comet the Obnoxious, a member of Town.
Spoiler:
Character Name: Sir Comet the Obnoxious

Flavour:

You were never given presents as a child at the Christmas Festival by your parents, and you have held that against everyone ever since. Now, you like to pretend to give presents, when in fact you just give lumps of coal to everyone. It’s a mess and gets everywhere too, which makes it all the better.

Role: Cursed Ventriloquist

Mechanics: Each night, you may target another player. That player will now speak with your voice. This takes the form of a post restriction. The targeted player will be obligated to write all their posts entirely in italics, as long as they are affected by the ability. Additionally, they must include one sentence of your choice in their Nth post the next Day (your choice). Please include your choices for all aspects when submitting your action.

You may also send anonymous messages. You may send a single message to up to half the remaining players (rounded up) each Night. The message content may vary for each different target. Messages should be sent to the mods who will include them in that player’s night results PM.

Win Condition: You are a member of the Town and win when all threats to Town have been eliminated, and at least one member of Town is still alive.

Hidden Mechanics: After the first successful use of the power, the player loses their voice and may only write “yes”, “no”, and emojis for the next Day. They may also vote and quote, but quotes must be of whole sentences, not individual words. The player with the post restriction now has the voice. It will automatically transfer to the target of that player’s next action (if possible, randomly selected if multiple targets), if the player has a targeting ability. If they do not have a targeting ability, it will move to the next player to target them (chosen at random if multiple players target them on the same Night). If the player who has the voice dies, the voice returns to the Ventriloquist. When the voice moves from a player, they lose their voice for the following Day in the same manner as the Ventriloquist did.

It is now Day 3. Deadline will be in approximately 6 days (exact deadline to be announced later).

Votals:

None

Not voting: Everybody

With 8 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch (due to moody7277 not having a vote).
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

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Vicarin
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N2)

Postby Vicarin » Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:53 am UTC

Hello all, been itching to get into this game after seeing such an interesting first 2 days. And now we've had a double kill. Oh boy.

Setup Spec: I think 8-3-1 or 9-2-1 is most likely for the initial setup, depending on what powers were floating around in general. Daychat is confirmed with wam's flip.

D1: I liked the wagon on MoA, and didn't like the switch to Madge. Madge was being more helpful than usual D1, and she gets lynched? Sigh.

D2: I'll just confirm everything about mpolo's claim: according to my power, either Sabrar and MoA are both town, or both non-town. And Mark was entirely correct for his power.

I didn't think wam was acting particularly more scummy than usual, but I guess it worked out. He's rolled scum a hell of a lot recently.

With regards to particular people:

LaserGuy: Proposed a fairly poor plan of mass claiming abilities immediately on D1 (not even I want that :P). However, by now, he surely realizes that people have been town reading him based of doing this, so probably NAI by now in terms of his meta. With wam flipping scum, actually looks pretty terrible right now. Will read through again in more detail in a bit, because I was defaulting to a town read D1.

SuicideJunkie: has been doing quite a few things which superficially look like analysis but haven't really helped to do much except waste a bunch of people's time. The spreadsheet is basically useless unless the same procedure is applied to previous games from a neutral observer POV, and then the results are checked against the flips to make sure it's predicting alignments accurately. Otherwise, it's going to be little better than guessing. Unsure how to tell newbie!scum from newbie!town here. Enough other scummy stuff going on that I'll slot him as town.

Sabrar: Fascinating change in how he's posting compared to all his previous games. Don't believe it's any kind of posting restriction. His statement in his first post that SuicideJunkie isn't a newbie has stuck in my mind the entire time this game has been going, seeing as by SuicideJunkie's own description, he's solidly newbie. Right now, mostly going to rely on my N1 result to read him because I'm finding it somewhat difficult otherwise, so decently scummy. I should probably get into an argument with him to get a better read :P.

bessie: Mostly pretty standard bessie from my POV . However, her fixation on the post counts as noted by plytho has been rather weirdly out of character. Overall pretty townie. How about a claim or two though? :lol:

moody: Wow, what a power. Nothing overtly scummy in the first two days, so I tried keeping him alive overnight (2nd choice was Mark, 3rd was plytho :(), in the hope that he can just break this all open. His presentation of the N1 results came off as pretty townie, making sure to check many possibilities. Seeing as wam's flipped scum, he's looking even better (I seriously doubt there'd be 2 scum trying to fake cop claims).

MasterOfAll: Not impressed by his early vanilla joke claim, especially when it wasn't followed up D1 by anything else resembling useful analysis (reads at end of day are terrible). His usage of his ability N1 also makes me reminisce for the shenanigans caused by Zen. I also got another message N2, but it was again lacking in pizazz :(. Unless he starts putting out a bunch of really solid reads, I think he's a decent candidate for being scum.

Mark_Cangila: First reads list was atrocious. Then makes excuses for how bad it is (just don't put out a reads list unless you're happy with it). Honestly, given how N1 turned out, I'll slot him as town right now, seeing as he definitely protected BoomFrog (would expect him to try to roleblock one of his scumreads if scum), and he's flipped as Town now.

Tableau of results so far:

Sabrar and MoA are both town or both not town.

town
LaserGuy
Sabrar
bessie
Vicarin
SuicideJunkie

not-town
MoA
Mark_Cangila

has 3 errors on it (from moody).

Claims:

Vicarin: Was comparison cop, now Protector/Roleblocker weirdness.
Mark_Cangila: Opposite to above.
moody: Full game cop.
MoA: Whatever BoomFrog was I guess
LaserGuy: Role swapper.
bessie:
SuicideJunkie:
Sabrar:

If anyone's got any specific questions (seeing as I've been reading over the thread fairly quickly), just ask.

@LaserGuy: Why'd you swap BoomFrog and MoA?
@MoA: Feel like BoomFrog would want his role to be known now? Would it explain any of his previous behaviour?
@Mark and Moody: What results do you have from overnight?
@Everyone: does anyone have anything that would help determine who wam targeted N1?

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Sabrar
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:20 pm UTC

I originally thought BoomFrog was poisoned N1. He was an unlikely nk-target N2 because scum knows he's a very good candidate to mislynch after wam's flip but he was in the townie-block N1. However he was protected N1 by Mark, so that can't be possible. Vig-shot?

@Vicarin: moody stated that his ability is not usable every night. Did you miss that? Pretty poor choice for protection after that.
@MasterOfAll: what is your new power? How did you use your old ability?
@Mark_Cangila: result please along with explanation on how you chose your targets.
@SuicideJunkie: what is your power? How did you use it N1 and N2?

dimochka wrote:Votals:

Mark_Cangila(4): plytho, moody7277, wam, LaserGuy
wam(4): Sabrar, MasterOfAll, Mark_Cangila

Not voting: bessie, mpolo, SuicideJunkie, BoomFrog
I hate this. Train on Mark includes a confirmed townie and 2 of my townier reads. Train on wam includes the remaining 2 players from my original bottom 4. I seriously need to reevaluate things. Although with confirmed day-chat wam could have instructed his team to bus him to get town-credit. Also Mark didn't really have any other choice. Why was Mark not the nk if town? He was unlikely to get protected.
Yeah, Mark is still looking pretty bad.

@LaserGuy: can you speculate aloud who the possible 3rd scum would be if Mark is the 2nd?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:52 pm UTC

.....

Yes, I did miss that. Argh, where did he say that precisely?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:08 pm UTC

Ah, his last post of the day, a bit before the lynch. Ok. Well, seeing as I'd have gone for Mark 2nd I guess that's not too much of a loss, but now I'm regretting not protecting plytho even more.

Actually, now that I think of it...

@LaserGuy: does your power give any indication of what happens if a power that can't be used every night is swapped onto someone else? If moody's power (assuming it is usable every 2nd night) had been swapped onto someone else N1, do you have any idea if the other person could use it N2?

@moody: exactly how often can you use your power?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:10 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote: Why was Mark not the nk if town? He was unlikely to get protected.


Can you explain this in more detail? He was a pretty obvious protection choice for me seeing as I know what ability he has.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:46 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:@moody: exactly how often can you use your power?


That's not a question people usually like to answer.

None of the deaths count toward my mistake total. We can also discount wam's claim about people as wine. I'm also still thinking about a GF looking nice in terms of my power.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:55 pm UTC

If you don't want to answer that question now, why'd you mention anything about how often you could use it on D2?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:16 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:If you don't want to answer that question now, why'd you mention anything about how often you could use it on D2?


You're going to sit there and tell me that you haven't seen people understate their power for tactical reasons?
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:36 pm UTC

:roll:

Fine, I'll just let you sort it out with Sabrar as to whether I wasted my time protecting you then :P.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:05 pm UTC

Last night I targeted MoA and Bessie. They are both aligned. Therefore, I feel like Bessie, MoA, and Sabrar are all town, unless 2 are mafia and 1 is indie. I targeted MoA and Bessie because I was at the very end of night and didn't know who to target.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:05 pm UTC

@Vic: I targeted Boom and MoA because Boom was a scum read and MoA was probably townie with a power that seemed pretty bad. I have no information on how my power interacts with any other ability and am unlikely to get anything. I'm very surprised my action processed before a NK as that seems very unintuitive as far as action resolution is concerned. But it may mean I can essentially protect one power from the NK.

@Sabrar: I will try to reread later today and get back to you.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:13 pm UTC

Well, one shot protect a power from NK I guess

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby bessie » Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:00 pm UTC

Thank you Vicarin for replacing mpolo.

Vicarin wrote: Sabrar: Fascinating change in how he's posting compared to all his previous games. Don't believe it's any kind of posting restriction.
So you think Sabrar suddenly decided on such a dramatically different posting style? :?

Vicarin wrote:bessie: Mostly pretty standard bessie from my POV . However, her fixation on the post counts as noted by plytho has been rather weirdly out of character. Overall pretty townie. How about a claim or two though? :lol:
How is it out of character for me to speculate on the setup, and to fixate on some odd game mechanic related theory? You need to read WoT2.

I have nothing I feel like claiming. :P

Sabrar wrote:Why was Mark not the nk if town? He was unlikely to get protected.
Why wouldn’t Mark be protected? mpolo had a town lean on Mark.

Vicarin wrote:@LaserGuy: does your power give any indication of what happens if a power that can't be used every night is swapped onto someone else? If moody's power (assuming it is usable every 2nd night) had been swapped onto someone else N1, do you have any idea if the other person could use it N2?
This seems a bit role fishy, even for you.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby MasterOfAll » Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:32 pm UTC

Happy New Year, everyone.

It is true that I now have BoomFrog's old role. Interestingly, from the D3 reveal, he still has his original role flavor which pretty much says what the ability is. My new ability is to target 1 player each night and give them a lump of coal. There is another aspect of the role that I won't get into right now, but in order for it to be at all useful, I would need to know who BoomFrog gave coal to.

So, if you have a piece of coal from N1 or N2, please speak up.


For my old role, I again did not use the post restriction imposing ability, but did send a message to the same 5 players as N1, with a slightly different message.

Seeing the hidden mechanics that went with my original role, I'm pretty happy that I didn't inflict the emoji curse on myself and others.


I have other stuff I need to do right now, so will have to cut this post off here.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:23 am UTC

Sabrar:
My power is something of an infohazard.
The act of describing it would ruin most of its benefits to the town, so I'd rather not do so.

I'm curious to see if Madge or Boomfrog actually return from the castle. Madge may be too late, and I don't have any hope for Plytho.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:59 am UTC

@LaserGuy: Yeah, that makes sense.

@bessie: If you think that Sabrar has some kind of posting restriction, then it's a type of restriction not shared by most people, despite it being in the sample role in the OP. You think he was just really unlucky and the restriction was given to one of the people who would get hit hardest by it?

My question towards LaserGuy was seeing if we could break this setup wide open. Which also seems to be what he was aiming towards D1 with floating the idea of an immediate mass claim. If there's someone who can swap abilities between people, that makes such a mass claim significantly more useful. And now we also have confirmation that the flavor on role flips isn't switched, so there's significantly more infromation out there from that.

@MoA: Interesting ability there, considering that that flavour description for BoomFrog sounds more like scum of some kind, but he flipped town, so oh well. No coal here (I'm assuming that you know whether people would be notified about receiving the coal?).

@SuicideJunkie: has your power provided any benefits to Town so far?


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