British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:12 am UTC

Don't forget, anyone who doesn't share their glassy-eyed utterly deluded blind faith in Britain to continue being the greatest country on Earth unstoppable even by logic and the laws of physics is just a 5th columnish traitor who hates Britain. If the impossible turns out to be impossible, it's the fault of the people who pointed out it was impossible.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby orthogon » Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:27 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:
orthogon wrote: On the one hand, you can see how the Brexiteers see it as a relatively minor point in the bigger picture,

If its such a minor point, then it can't be hard to give the EU a plan... but AFAICT tell, the plan is "we'll do something smart with cameras, and its going to work because we're British. Trust us."

I don't mean that it's easy to solve, just that it's a small part of the UK population and a small proportion of our GDP, so I can understand the Brexiteers' frustration that what they see as a massively good thing for the rest of the UK is being held up by this one small province. Of course, those of us who remember bombs in London, Brighton and Warrington, as well as Belfast, know that it's not just a parochial matter. I think it's a big problem and that it's also a good example of how the EU has contributed to peace in Europe. I just think there's a risk that in hoping Northern Ireland poses an insurmountable obstacle to Brexit, Remainers take our eye off the ball.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:43 pm UTC

So, now Dyson likes the rulings of European authorities, despite campaigning Leave and making his products completely outside Britain or Europe…

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zamfir » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:37 pm UTC

And the proposal is there...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:24 pm UTC

I can't see the deal making it through parliament. Neither brexiters nor remainers like it. Some brexiters have even said it's worse than remaining - I mean, they're right, surprised they've only just worked that out. The resignations and letters of no confidence in May are starting to roll in. Interesting times.

And if we end up leaving with no deal, no doubt the brexiters will deny any responsibility for what happens as usual.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Sableagle » Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:35 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:And if we end up leaving with no deal, no doubt the brexiters will deny any responsibility for what happens as usual.
They'll insist it would all have gone wonderfully if they'd been put in charge of negotiations on both sides.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Angua » Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:37 pm UTC

There was no way it was ever going to be a good deal. I'm sure May did the best with what she got, but she gets no sympathy from me for still insisting Brexit should go forward.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:38 pm UTC

If I weren't (at least by location) right in the middle of it, I'd be chuckling with schadenfreude* about how it's satisfying mostly nobody, as I always said it would. Roll on the next referendum! (Or a general election, as a somewhat flawed proxy for such referenda as we now need.)

* I'm using that word now, while it's still tariff-free and not subject to being blocked at customs.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Dauric » Thu Nov 15, 2018 7:31 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:...schadenfreude*...
* I'm using that word now, while it's still tariff-free and not subject to being blocked at customs.


As if the English don't have a storied history of importing words and manufacturing local knockoffs that end up replacing the original.

"Shadenfrood." There, you can 3D print that one all you want.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zamfir » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:26 pm UTC

Shadenfrood

Out of curiosity, does that resemble how you would say Schadenfreude?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Leovan » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:47 pm UTC

More like Shadenfroide. Though reading that makes me want to say it with French pronunciation... :P

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:24 pm UTC

Wash your mouth out!

This is a Local Word, for Local People! We'll have no Franglais here!
("Shard'n'Froyd 'er". Or, for certain Midlands accents, possibly the word "Fried".)

Came across this user comment to a news item about some aspect or other:
You see that ludicrous display last night? You see, the thing about the Tories is they always try and walk it in.


Which is surely recognisable by the demographic of Brits who enjoy xkcd. ;)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:43 pm UTC

What was May thinking bringing Hammond on that early?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby orthogon » Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:53 pm UTC

It's a game of two halves, though, at the end of the day. She's gone out there and given 110%. She'll be gutted not to come away with a result.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:38 am UTC

Looks like there's going to be a vote of no confidence, and most likely May will win it, and be untouchable for a year. Meaning she'll survive to push her bill into parliament - what happens then is anyone's guess.

In other news, May has announced she'll appoint the new Brexit secretary soon. Also, Gove has said he's not leaving and has confidence in the PM. Gee I wonder who the new secretary will be.

(Then again, a bunch of Brexit supporting MPs have said they're staying, so maybe not.)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zamfir » Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:04 pm UTC

We'll see how it all ends, but I have developed a grudging respect for May. She gets sniped at from all sides, lots of people are dodging responsibility, but every few months she calls their bluff and wins.

And this proposal seems like a reasonable compromise between the various opinions within the UK, given the non-cakeism constraints from the EU. The UK can start in "Norway" style, close but not quite in, with the perspective to step down towards "Canada" over the years.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:15 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:Looks like there's going to be a vote of no confidence, and most likely May will win it, and be untouchable for a year.

You think? I agree that's what the pundits are saying, but personally I am doubtful the hardliners would submit the names if they didn't think they'd win the vote; I think they'd be smarter to hold it over her in an effort to extract more concessions.

In my view there won't be a no confidence vote yet; Rather I think the Brexit bill will be put before parliament and fail, increasing the chances of a second referendum or general election.

This whole situation is like half of a family voted for turkey for xmas and the other half for trifle, and so Mom has served everyone burnt pigeon in custard... And, as Zamfir says, in many ways it's not a terrible compromise; A lot of the critical issues (eg. trade and NI) are simply kicked down the road. (Which is one of the things the Brexiteers hate, of course.)

But, honestly, the parties are so hopelessly divided this just isn't something our political system can really deal with. The public got us into this mess and only they can get us out of it. The last referendum was a vote on the direction of travel. Now we should vote on an actual destination.

I think there should be a three-way vote for either the status quo, May's deal, or for walking away (followed eventually by a rebooted negotiation).

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:18 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:And this proposal seems like a reasonable compromise between the various opinions within the UK, given the non-cakeism constraints from the EU. The UK can start in "Norway" style, close but not quite in, with the perspective to step down towards "Canada" over the years.

Yeah, but the brexiters have no intention of compromising. That would result in putting their name on something they know will be shit. As long as what they're demanding is impossible, they never have to worry about their ideology being destroyed by being implemented and tested. They can keep harping on about how everything would have been brilliant if they had 100% their way. Any brexit that is actually implementable is No True Brexit.

elasto wrote:
Mutex wrote:Looks like there's going to be a vote of no confidence, and most likely May will win it, and be untouchable for a year.

You think? I agree that's what the pundits are saying, but personally I am doubtful the hardliners would submit the names if they didn't think they'd win the vote; I think they'd be smarter to hold it over her in an effort to extract more concessions.

In my view there won't be a no confidence vote yet; Rather I think the Brexit bill will be put before parliament and fail, increasing the chances of a second referendum or general election.

You might be right that they hold off the VONC. Is that an option if they've received the 48 letters? But certainly if they do have the vote, I don't see how they have the numbers when even Fox and Gove are getting behind her now.

And I don't agree with the turkey/triffle metaphor, because going hard-turkey would be worse than the half-way point. It would definitely mean ripping up the Good Friday Agreement and going back to the Troubles.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:03 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:And I don't agree with the turkey/triffle metaphor, because going hard-turkey would be worse than the half-way point. It would definitely mean ripping up the Good Friday Agreement and going back to the Troubles.

Personally I don't think it would lead to that. I do think it would lead to the break-up of the UK though, with Scotland going independent within a decade and Ireland reuniting within two generations.

Personally I think that would be a bad thing, but it's an issue on which reasonable and rational people can disagree.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:10 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:when even Fox and Gove are getting behind her now.

The far more traditional place from which to backstab.

(Not sure about Fox, off the top of my head, but Gove's got form.)

elasto wrote:I do think it would lead to the break-up of the UK though, with Scotland going independent and Ireland reuniting within a generation.
At the extremes, Brexit will likely either lead to break-up or, if rejoining under popular "well, it was better… Whoda thunk?" to save against said break-up, the loss of far more sovereignty than we had before (opt-outs, Sterling, etc).

There's possibly a middle-way, a navigable path, but I don't think the route-markers are visible enough. I think we'll swerve a lot before heading off one side of such a precipice or another, unless we slow to a crawl (which has its own problems).

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:15 pm UTC

elasto wrote:
Mutex wrote:And I don't agree with the turkey/triffle metaphor, because going hard-turkey would be worse than the half-way point. It would definitely mean ripping up the Good Friday Agreement and going back to the Troubles.

Personally I don't think it would lead to that. I do think it would lead to the break-up of the UK though, with Scotland going independent within a decade and Ireland reuniting within two generations.

Personally I think that would be a bad thing, but it's an issue on which reasonable and rational people can disagree.

Well, Ireland reuniting would involve ripping up the GFA. Either the republicans are upset at having a hard border with Ireland, or the unionists are upset at no longer being in the UK and being part of Ireland. Either way, the current situation can't continue without the UK (all of it) staying in the EEA.

The fact the Irish border is such a spanner in the works for brexit, and the fact that brexiters simply didn't mention it during the referendum and the way they continued to brush it off and ignore it whenever it came up since, is a fascinating and depressing insight into the way humans work. They simply couldn't think it through, hold their hands up and say "oops, I guess brexit is a terrible, unworkable idea then".

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:49 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:Well, Ireland reuniting would involve ripping up the GFA.

Depends what you mean by 'ripping up' I suppose. Arguably, if the Northern Irish willingly unite with Southern Ireland then it's actually an improvement over the current arrangement: If in a generation or two the fallout from a hard-Brexit causes the Northern Irish to decide they have more in common with their southern neighbours and the rest of Europe than with England then it might end up the best possible of all worlds. For them anyhow. A hard Brexit is less likely to be so rosy for us...

(Plus it's not like the Northern Ireland Assembly is the picture of health right now, what with it lacking a functional government for about two years. That's a de-facto ripping up of the agreement in many ways...)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:59 pm UTC

I have no doubt Ireland will reunite in the next couple of generations tbh. But it's not a likely outcome right now, there's far too many protestant unionists who'd get very angry and violent. It's a hell of a messy situation that the EU solved, until the brexiters came along and kicked the hornets nest and insulted the hornets' mothers.

elasto wrote:(Plus it's not like the Northern Ireland Assembly is the picture of health right now, what with it lacking a functional government for about two years. That's a de-facto ripping up of the agreement in many ways...)

True, but this is really going to rip the plaster off. To use another metaphor. Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby orthogon » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:37 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:The fact the Irish border is such a spanner in the works for brexit, and the fact that brexiters simply didn't mention it during the referendum and the way they continued to brush it off and ignore it whenever it came up since, is a fascinating and depressing insight into the way humans work. They simply couldn't think it through, hold their hands up and say "oops, I guess brexit is a terrible, unworkable idea then".

I discussed this a bit upthread: in some ways Brexiteers have a legitimate argument that NI is a small part of the UK, in terms of both population and area, and allowing it to scupper the whole fabulous Brexit project seems like the tail is wagging the dog. From the Remainer viewpoint, it's a perfect example of the ways in which the EU is a force for peace, therefore it's not a side-show at all. I'm of the latter view, but I can see the other side of it. Putting so much importance on NI makes it seem like we'd have had a brilliant deal months ago if only it hadn't been for that; or alternatively that the EU would have found something else to obsess over.

Zamfir wrote:We'll see how it all ends, but I have developed a grudging respect for May. She gets sniped at from all sides, lots of people are dodging responsibility, but every few months she calls their bluff and wins.

And this proposal seems like a reasonable compromise between the various opinions within the UK, given the non-cakeism constraints from the EU. The UK can start in "Norway" style, close but not quite in, with the perspective to step down towards "Canada" over the years.


This is more or less what I've been thinking. May looked properly awesome yesterday, I thought, and I speak as someone who has vowed never to vote for the Tories. She managed to project an air of "look, I've bust an absolute gut getting to here; it's a fucking impossible situation and this is where we are; furthermore I'd like to see anyone else do any better"

And I've been surprised many times at what a government can get through Parliament when it comes down to it. The Whips seem pretty good at their job, MPs don't want to bring down their own party; and there will surely be more than a few Labour rebels who back the bill. I'm going out on a limb and I may well be wrong, but I can see this getting parliamentary backing.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zamfir » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:04 pm UTC

Would they even be rebels? As in, can Labour afford to push for a party-line No vote, as opposed to allowing some MPs to vote in favour?

I hear a lot of criticism from labour, but not much of an alternative. They seem just as splintered as the Tories, just a tad less visible because theyre not in power.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:11 pm UTC

I think Corbyn's thinking is if the bill fails, we'll have a general election and he'll be able to seize power. So he's basically putting his feet up and watching Rome burn thinking it can only be good for Labour.

Yeah, they don't have an alternative. They've avoided suggesting one in order to avoid the focus being on the faults of their plan. Because at the end of the day there's no possible plan that doesn't make a huge amount of people very unhappy.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zamfir » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:34 pm UTC

And then, what? He's going to renegotiate with the EU? And the EU will say, sure, let's throw away the work of the last few years, and try again...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Fri Nov 16, 2018 3:41 pm UTC

Fuck knows. He seems unkeen on another referendum or withdrawing article 50. So I guess we crash out without a deal, he blames the tories for everything bad that happens, and he wings it from there. Truth be told none of us have a clue what he'd do if he ended up with power, he might not know himself.

Make no mistake the entire situation is a staggering shit-fest.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:01 pm UTC

According to the BBC the numbers don't really add up: Can Theresa May get her deal through the Commons?

That's what I think will ultimately lead to another referendum or election. Because, as Zamfir says, it's not like the EU is just going to start again. They are going to have their own problems getting dozens of parliaments to agree to their side of the deal in any case...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Plasma_Wolf » Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:33 pm UTC

https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1063737676455653376

Nadine Dorries seriously just complained that the Brexit deal gives us "no MEPs, no commissioner, no votes".


Seriously, how is this a thing? I need more than two hands to facepalm now.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Sableagle » Sat Nov 24, 2018 10:52 am UTC

elasto wrote:I think the Brexit bill will be put before parliament and fail, increasing the chances of a second referendum or general election.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Sableagle » Wed Dec 05, 2018 2:12 pm UTC

The Members of Parliament in the House of Commons just found the Government in contempt of Parliament.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agwl_zZtAjg
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Sableagle » Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:07 pm UTC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JDrthYbncs

May wrote:On one issue, the Northern Ireland backstop, there remains widespread and deep concern. As a result, if we went ahead and held the vote tomorrow, the deal would be rejected by a significant margin. We will therefore defer the vote schedule for tomorrow.


"We'll have a vote on this issue when I'm sure I'll win it, and not until." I wonder what'll happen if it stays obvious the deal would be rejected all the way into April.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby bbluewi » Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:51 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JDrthYbncs

May wrote:On one issue, the Northern Ireland backstop, there remains widespread and deep concern. As a result, if we went ahead and held the vote tomorrow, the deal would be rejected by a significant margin. We will therefore defer the vote schedule for tomorrow.


"We'll have a vote on this issue when I'm sure I'll win it, and not until." I wonder what'll happen if it stays obvious the deal would be rejected all the way into April.

https://youtu.be/Lu5SJcNp0J0

This. This is what happens.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Sableagle » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:24 pm UTC

Brexit Secretary job being offered to Boris Johnson and another leading Brexit campaigner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgkJnSS3uDg
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby ElWanderer » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:17 pm UTC

May survives a party vote of no confidence, but not by a very wide margin. She has already said she will step down before the next election, but it's hard to see her lasting very long as it is.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46547246

There's still no clear way to get the current Brexit agreement through parliament; Labour seem to be promising a vote of no confidence in the government should the deal get rejected in a vote... though probably they will wait until they think they can win such a vote before triggering one.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Plasma_Wolf » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:40 pm UTC

ElWanderer wrote:though probably they will wait until they think they can win such a vote before triggering one.

Like Theresa May postponed the vote on the Brexit deal to a moment when she can win it. Which got everyone angry.

117 voted against May. 200 voted for her. It is a severe dent in her power, but equally in the influence of those who want to get rid of her. The confidence vote failed for them. Plain and simple.

For the progress of Brexit it means two things:

1) nothing has changed since the challenge and the vote. Parliament is still against anything that is being proposed and no one is willing to compromise or even see reason. It is just hoping that they will by the time they HAVE to vote.
2) It would only have been worse if May was sent home. A PM that would go for the far more damaging no-deal can more easily make the decision to do that, than May is able to make her decision to go for the May-deal that's currently on the table. With Parliament in total chaos, a PM going for something that's not the worst is already an achievement. How much this will happen in the end, now fully depends on the House of Commons.

elasto
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:49 pm UTC

Theresa May has lost the vote on her Brexit deal by 432 votes to 202 - the biggest government defeat in history.

Personally I think a second referendum or general election is now inevitable. If its the latter then May will most likely resign.

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dubsola
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby dubsola » Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:36 am UTC

I was under the impression a second referendum would never happen. How could it? Like, what would be the likely scenario?

elasto
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:17 am UTC

dubsola wrote:I was under the impression a second referendum would never happen. How could it? Like, what would be the likely scenario?


The most likely scenario now is that May wins her Confidence Motion today then loses the vote on her amended plan next week. After that there are very few options for the government:

- The EU will not - and, realistically, cannot - make major changes to their side of the Brexit agreement. (We are negotiating with two dozen countries after all)
- The UK parliament likely will not support anything close to the current agreement
- There is strong opposition in parliament and the country for a No-Deal Brexit

I think May will eventually throw her hands in the air and say that, despite her best efforts, she cannot deliver an agreement that parliament can in good conscience support, and so the people will have to decide.

And that's fine: We are a representative democracy not a dictatorship; Our representatives have a duty to act in their constituents' best interests rather than bow to either populism or political pressure. Despite how the right-wing newspapers will portray it, this is parliamentary democracy working as intended.

The European courts have said that the UK can unilaterally cancel Article 50 (Brexit) should they so wish, and I think the UK will leverage that to persuade the EU to extend the deadline until after a second referendum which will have at least three options:

- Remain in the EU under the existing arrangement
- Go with May's plan
- Or leave and fall back on WTO terms (No-Deal Brexit)

(There may be a fourth option giving the government a mandate to renegotiate, but honestly I doubt the results would be much different and that likely will just be wasting everyone's time. The EU may not even agree to that anyhow.)

Given that not many of those who voted to leave the EU would be happy with May's plan, along with even less of those who voted to remain, I think letting the people have the final say here is not simply politically expedient I think it's absolutely mandatory. It was a dumb referendum that got us into this mess and only a referendum can now sort it out. This is why politicians shouldn't abdicate their responsibilities to begin with.

As for May herself, I think she will hang on to fight for her option in the second referendum, then resign if it gets voted down.

(For the referendum, I favour an instant-runoff vote - ie. people rank their preferences. Because, otherwise, can you imagine the social turmoil if it was FPTP and it went 34% / 33% / 33% ?!)


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