Pen Pals Mafia [D3: Dear Zachary]

For your simulated organized crime needs.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Snark » Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:20 pm UTC

Deadline in ~5 days.

Votals: None

10 alive, 6 to lynch.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:31 pm UTC

@mpolo: I agree with all your points, that's why I specifically suggested it for D2.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby moody7277 » Thu Jun 02, 2016 9:26 pm UTC

I'm sure that several people here know my feelings re no lynch and those who propose it at this point. mpolo's codifying of the strategic reasons against it makes me feel better than it just being a knee-jerk reaction. While sabrar did give it more weight for D2, he was still leaving it open for certain circumstances D1. Tick mark against him in my book.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jun 02, 2016 9:41 pm UTC

[rant]It feels to me that neither of you actually understood what I wrote (or you're just deliberately misrepresenting it) and this frustrates me quite a bit. If you read it a bit more carefully you'll see that I never advocated it for D1, it was a segue to my suggestion of discussing it on D2. I knew before I posted it that the majority of players don't like NL but to not even consider the circumstances why I suggested it despite that fact is just ridiculous.[/rant]

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby mpolo » Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:30 am UTC

I seem to have missed the D2 in your post, sorry for misrepresenting you.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:46 am UTC

@mpolo: no worries and I apologize for my tone. The misrepresentation part was aimed more towards moody anyway who didn't even analyze the situation like you did.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 03, 2016 7:08 am UTC

Where is everyone? Game's not fun if half of the playerbase is lurking. Could I ask the following people to post more?

Spoiler:
Carlington wrote:...
Djehutynakht wrote:...
emlightened wrote:...
flicky1991 wrote:...
Madge wrote:...

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Madge » Fri Jun 03, 2016 7:14 am UTC

Don't really have much to say. I hate D1, nothing ever happens (it's why I sign up as replacement a lot nowadays, so that way I get to skip D1 a lot of the time!). I'm happy to wait until we have some data from power results through the night.

I didn't like the idea of doing an NL to keep town powers strong but mpolo(I think) covered the reasons for that (basically: it gives us less to go on come D2).
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 03, 2016 7:26 am UTC

@Madge: well you could always try to make something happen... :P
Anyway now we know at least that you're still following the game and won't need a replacement yourself. :)

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Madge » Fri Jun 03, 2016 7:40 am UTC

unfortunately, I don't really have anything. My FoS are on the other quiet people (I know I'm a hypocrite) because I think scum generally likes to be able to slip under the radar d1, i think you and mpolo had a good interaction earlier, dim looks good, other people probably look good too.

a couple of times i tried to jazz things up by making question lists like Snark used to do so well but people dissed them and said they were bad and they probably were because i don't know what questions would be useful ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby mpolo » Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:05 am UTC

It turns out that I am in fact going to be online over the weekend (one student dropped out of the "road trip", and so we need one less driver…), but as several have said, we need to get some discussion going.

How likely do people think a cult is? Does anybody have indications that make this at all likely?

How likely is a serial killer?

How likely that a pair of penpals are also lovers?

What kind of independents do we expect to have in the game?

I'll hold off on answering my own questions to encourage others to chime in and not say "like he said" or simply "I disagree".
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby emlightened » Fri Jun 03, 2016 9:04 am UTC

I wouldn't really expect a cult to be in this game, but that might be due to that I've never played in a game that has a cult, so I wouldn't really know where to expect one.

I'm expecting one, mainly because I expect the setup to be 6/2/1/1 or 7/2/1 and have a SK (because imo it seems like this would be the most likely way for it to be balanced).

Huh, that one sounds interesting. Probably not. The concept of having to keep looking at your partner to see if they're scum (for town, at least) is kinda lost if that's done, and it doesn't really add much to the game.

I expect the indies to be a SK and maybe a survivor, but it's be great if I was wrong about this one (because then there's more variety). A jester seems unlikely (slightly less likely than a cult), but possible; I'm not really sure about other indies.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Carlington » Fri Jun 03, 2016 10:45 am UTC

If we're all power town (I think that's almost a given in this game), I imagine all scum has powers, but I still think there's probably 2 Mafia 1 Indie. Maybe 2 mafia 2 Indie, but less likely. The first Indie is probably an SK, so I would be wholly unsurprised to see two kills. I expect there's also at least one town kill around, be that a vig or a PGO or both. I think there's probably a cop, but we should not treat them as infallible because having a scum godfather and/or Roleblocker is highly likely imo. If there's a second Indie, they're probably a survivor.

Naturally this is all baseless, but I think it would be unbalanced any other way. With that said, I have no idea about the likelihood of lovers, either as penpals or not, because I haven't got a good enough grip on how lovers affect a game.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:41 am UTC

In my opinion games that last longer offer more fun overall so I really hope that the number of NK-s is limited. With Dollhouse I made the mistake of including SK+Vig+Lovers in a 10 person game and despite 2 Bulletproof characters and 112 Doctors the game ended much too early.

We might have Lovers but I don't think it's likely that they are penpals as well, as again those pairings were supposed to be determined randomly.
I hope we don't have a cult but got no idea on how likely it would be.
Last few games all included a Survivor so it's reasonable to expect it. Jester is possible as well but it shouldn't deter us from lynching scummy-looking players.

@Carlington: I don't see how a Roleblocker would affect a Cop's trustworthiness. Maybe you meant Redirector?

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jun 03, 2016 12:21 pm UTC

In terms of speculating what characters may or may not exist in this game, those of you who've played here in the past will probably know better than me what to expect.

mpolo wrote:How likely do people think a cult is? Does anybody have indications that make this at all likely?
The same reasoning from my ability that led me to believe there is an independent could also indicate the existence of a cult, but not more so than any other kind of independent. So if we're assuming there is at least a Serial Killer, I don't think I've seen anything that would indicate a cult.

mpolo wrote:How likely is a serial killer?
People already seem to be assuming that if there are independents then there is likely a Serial Killer. That does seem pretty standard.

mpolo wrote:How likely that a pair of penpals are also lovers?
Like Sabrar said (sorry), pairings are random so if there are Lovers they shouldn't be each other's pen pals.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Carlington » Fri Jun 03, 2016 1:40 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Carlington: I don't see how a Roleblocker would affect a Cop's trustworthiness. Maybe you meant Redirector?

Doh, no it just didn't occur to me that a cop would know if they got roleblocked. A roleblocker would of course reduce the reliability of trackers and watchers, should they exist, and of course the godfather bit still applies for cops.

You raise a good point, though, tangential to talking about redirectors, and one I hadn't considered. I think in a more vanilla game, I would expect one godfather and one goon. It makes sense that the goon would get a penpal power, but you can't really enhance godfatherdom. Do we think it's possible that who would have been a godfather gets a bonus power, or is it more likely that they would just lose their godfatherdom if their penpal is killed?
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 03, 2016 2:01 pm UTC

This is anything but a vanilla game, I would expect both scum to have some kind of special ability (BTW remember Wheel of Time where Godfather had also an unblockable kill and the other scum could choose between Roleblocker and Redirector?).
Snark wrote:Players will have ... 2) a special bonus power (or extra facet of their original power) as long as their pen pal is alive
Based on the above quote I think it is quite easy to add something to any role as it doesn't need to be a strict extension of the original ability.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby moody7277 » Fri Jun 03, 2016 2:48 pm UTC

On sabrar's response to me, mpolo had already done a complete analysis of the reasons against NL D1, and I felt anything substantive I might say about it would be redundant. I suppose it bears repeating that 20% chance of lynching scum (assuming 8/2 or 7/2/1) is better than 0% with NL, and could be even higher if we develop solid townie reads. At this point I consider it put to bed.

mpolo's questions:
How likely do people think a cult is? Does anybody have indications that make this at all likely?
<1%, due to size of the game

How likely is a serial killer?
10% at most, again due to size issues. Would make for a real short game.

How likely that a pair of penpals are also lovers?
An interesting proposition, and one I'm not sure how to quantify. Given the mechanic, I'd say it's a bit more likely than in an average game.

What kind of independents do we expect to have in the game?
Survivor 50-75%, lyncher <25%.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby dimochka » Fri Jun 03, 2016 4:21 pm UTC

From my role, I have no indication whatsoever of any type of independent, but I just don't think this game would be town vs. mafia only. i'm going to err on the side of both sk and survivor, as that will make us a bit more careful (since survivor doesn't care who to side with).

I think cult is unlikely. And if there is a cult then i would actually predict no other independent roles. But I think the chances of that are low.

Also don't think there will be lovers. That can once again make for a much shorter game.

I think lyncher and jester are unlikely. I would've expected one of them in a 12 or 14 person game, but less so in 10. But those are just my opinions.

Re: NoLynch - I don't think it's a good idea D1 or D2. We don't know how many (if any) doctors we have, how many (if any) roles are poisoners (kill the day after they poison), etc. Too many uncertainties in a non-vanilla game.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jun 03, 2016 7:58 pm UTC

So at one point we have to start throwing votes around and it can't be too far off to give everyone a fair chance to react. If nothing else changes I'll have a read tomorrow morning and post my thoughts. Fair warning though, with so limited material my early reads are usually way off (see Baker Street Dethy for a prime example).

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby emlightened » Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:10 pm UTC

I guess random votes are better than nothing, so I'm going to put a semi-random vote on dimochka.

Vote: dimochka

(And by semi-random, I mean I chose three people which had pinged me/lurked, and used a PRNG to decide.)

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby emlightened » Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:14 pm UTC

(Posted that now so that some people actually react before the weekend starts properly. I also am not quite sure what Sabrar meant by "and it can't be too far off to give everyone a fair chance to react", so I might have completely messed up whatever he wanted to do.)

For reference, my three choices were: Dj, for lurking; moody, for seeming unreasonable in their NL response; and dimo, for (seemingly) backpeddling after saying something about his power.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jun 03, 2016 9:02 pm UTC

emlightened wrote:dimo, for (seemingly) backpeddling after saying something about his power
I did want to resist just following other people's conclusions about who is scum and who isn't, but re-reading dimochka's post it does seem like his clarification negates the point he was originally trying to make.

He used the fact that powers may become less useful to suggest that scum may attempt to kill their own pen pal, but then said in his later clarification:
dimochka wrote:Without getting into specifics, the "change" that the penpal makes to my power is not compulsory, but if I do follow it then it's as if I'm basically more distracted. I am NOT in any way advocating lynching my penpal (without actual scummy activity), because I can just use the original version of my power. It's just that the adjusted version of my power is not, in my opinion, helpful to a townie.
To me, that makes his original point moot - no-one would try to kill their own pen pal purely on the basis that their own pen pal ability isn't particularly useful, if it doesn't negate the powers they'd have anyway.

Of course, it's not a particularly strong argument against him, but if we're agreed that No Lynch first night makes no sense and want to pick someone, then dimochka's claim stands out as the most suspicious thing anyone's done.

The devil's advocate argument here is that saying something that strange as intentional misdirection when no-one has indicated anything similar about their own abilities doesn't seem like the best scum strategy...
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jun 03, 2016 9:25 pm UTC

I go away for 24 hours, and suddenly discussion starts! Quick points - I'm leaning towards never no lynching early on (at likely MYLO, yes, but not earlier), mainly because in an ability heavy setup, who knows what might happen. In particular, more than one death on any given night (or no deaths) throws away the main benefit of No Lynch (extending the number of nights for townie actions, and preserving a power). Also, the quicker we can figure out the setup, the more knowledge we will gain from our own actions.

I see what emlightened and flicky are saying about dimochka, but as I am trying to type this quickly, in a short period before getting ready for bed, I'm going to postpone rereading that until Sunday, when I'll do a full re-read and one of my wall o' text analyses.

In response to mpolo's questions:

I think a cult reasonably unlikely (no more than about 15%), and if there is one, I expect it to be restricted in some way (e.g. can only recruit people without a living pen pal). Also, mild ping against mpolo for role-fishing on the related question, though I can understand why getting that information out early could be useful.

I doubt there'd be a serial killer in a 10 player game (again about 15%), if there is a regular mafia as well, due to too many anti-town kill powers. However, if there is a cult, I wouldn't be surprised at the presence of a serial killer and no mafia.

I think the setup rules mean that a pair of lovers as pen pals would be possible, but would have to have been randomly assigned as such. I think a pair of lovers is possible, but I don't think particularly likely, as it doesn't seem thematically to make sense, unless they were pen pals, and then see my previous statement.

As noted earlier, I think two not too anti-town independents is possible, with a survivor being the most likely. A lyncher, I think might be present, or a more unusual one such as a traitor.

Now, a question from me (at the risk of a barrel full of wine being spilt everywhere), which I already asked my pen pal, but I think would be good for more people to answer as well: if you were a standard mafia scum (i.e. nightly kill), what would be your strategy over the next couple of days?
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:59 am UTC

emlightened wrote:(Posted that now so that some people actually react before the weekend starts properly. I also am not quite sure what Sabrar meant by "and it can't be too far off to give everyone a fair chance to react", so I might have completely messed up whatever he wanted to do.)
No hidden agenda, was hoping to have a bit more content (especially from Dj) before possibly steering the conversation towards a mislynch due to a terrible read. Didn't see too much activity so wanted to start the voting process because if we wait until weekend is over then there would be little time left to decide plus time-zone differences would make the whole thing difficult. With that aside let's go to reads.

While I understand the pressure on dimochka I don't fully agree. I don't want to put words in his mouth so I'll let him defend himself but I don't feel his 'backpedalling' was that big of an issue and while his content might look scummy, the way it was presented is not.

Carlington wrote:I think there's probably a cop, but we should not treat them as infallible because having a scum godfather and/or Roleblocker is highly likely imo.
I'm actually looking at Carlington right now as the above feels to me like he wants to preemptively invalidate Cop results, searching for any reason to do so. Also there is this:
Carlington wrote:You raise a good point, though, tangential to talking about redirectors, and one I hadn't considered. I think in a more vanilla game, I would expect one godfather and one goon. It makes sense that the goon would get a penpal power, but you can't really enhance godfatherdom. Do we think it's possible that who would have been a godfather gets a bonus power, or is it more likely that they would just lose their godfatherdom if their penpal is killed?
Apart from the non sequitur (I can't see how anything I said could tangentially result in such a line of thought) this looks like an attempt to downplay the abilities of scum.
I admit it's a little thin but as flicky said this was the most scummy thing I could find.

Vote: Carlington

Additional thoughts:
- I'm not sure how to feel about mpolo's questions regarding indie roles as it allows scum to pretend contributing while not actually saying anything relevant. I mean random questions are great to get people to talk but they also should be able to help you make reads based of the answers. Of course if it has a hidden purpose I'd love to hear it.
- jimbob's question looks much more suitable for scum-hunting, need to think about it.
- flicky has a 'significant' amount of "me too" posts but at least he acknowledges it and given his newbie status it might not be indicative at all.
- Djehutynakht needs to start contributing. If he'll only post in order to avoid a potential mod-kill I'll probably switch my vote over to him for policy reasons.
- jimbob currently looks townie to me but this is the first time I don't read him as scum so I have no baseline to compare to. Will look at his wall-of-text carefully though.

PS:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm leaning towards never no lynching early on (at likely MYLO, yes, but not earlier), mainly because in an ability heavy setup, who knows what might happen.
Wouldn't the presence of so many abilities actually imply that NL is better early on? Hypothetical simplified scenario (spoilered because we're getting a bit off-topic here):
Spoiler:
Suppose a game comes down to 6 players, 5 Town, 1 Scum with everyone having some kind of an ability. If they mislynch only 4 townies get to use theirs that night (one of whom will die), then they NL with 4 players, 1 player dies, total number of actual abilities used: 3+2=5. Now suppose the NL right off the bat, then mislynch before arriving at final 3. Total number of abilities used will be 4+2=6.
Additionally the possibility of mislynch decreases a bit as there will be 5 players alive instead of 6 when they first kill someone.
You can extend the above scenario to any even number of players with more scum. From a purely mathematical point-of-view if there is only 1 NK left in the game then it is better to NL early (also if there's a successful Doctor save along the line it allows a second NL, giving investigating powers an additional chance at finding scum).

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Carlington » Sat Jun 04, 2016 6:22 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:This is anything but a vanilla game, I would expect both scum to have some kind of special ability

What does this mean? Do you expect scum to have two powers each, plus the usual factional kill? I was saying that I expect one scum to have a penpal-caused power, and wondering whether the other scum, who would have likely already been a Godfather in a more normal game, would gain a second power due to having a penpal alive, or just lose their godfatherhood if their penpal dies. I don't have a very good sense for how balanced a game is, so I don't know what's more likely with regard to keeping the game balanced. That's where my tangent came from - a line of thought like "Oh, I didn't even think of a Redirector! That's three potential scum powers. What other scum powers did I not think of? Maybe there's a way that scum have two powers each without it being OP." Previously, I had assumed it would be "take a vanilla scumteam and add one power to each scummate, so we get a Godfather with an extra power and a goon with an extra power." I'd be very happy to have other players provide a reference frame for this.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I doubt there'd be a serial killer in a 10 player game (again about 15%), if there is a regular mafia as well, due to too many anti-town kill powers.
I disagree. If all town are power town, which seems likely, and also powers are more powerful, or there's more than one power per townie, I think that multiple anti-town kills are quite possible.

Now, a question from me (at the risk of a barrel full of wine being spilt everywhere), which I already asked my pen pal, but I think would be good for more people to answer as well: if you were a standard mafia scum (i.e. nightly kill), what would be your strategy over the next couple of days?
Weaker town is easier to kill, so I'd prioritise destroying town-town penpal pairs where possible. I'd try to identify indies and mitigate/subdue them as necessary. I'd also want as much setup information as possible, so I'd really want to see the results of N1 (how many kills are there, what other weirdnesses happen, what can I learn and how can I use it?)

It might just be because I agree with his setup spec, but I don't think dimochka is likely scum. I think he's very wise in assuming there will be multiple anti-town kills - "hope for the best, but prepare for the worst."
I'm going to wait a bit before I try to make good scum reads, because I can feel a lot of OMGUS-based bias against Sabrar and I don't want that to blind me. If I try to account for that, I think Sabrar is town, which is why I know that it's OMGUS-based.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby dimochka » Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:24 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:To me, that makes his original point moot - no-one would try to kill their own pen pal purely on the basis that their own pen pal ability isn't particularly useful, if it doesn't negate the powers they'd have anyway.

If you look back, this was as a response to another post:
Sabrar wrote:The more I think about this the less I like it. Having an ability that is weaker when your pen-pal is alive seems to go against the stated setup and with no bastardry this feels very weird. It appears to me like dimochka is deliberately setting up a potential mislynch on a townie whose pen pal was killed by scum.

I realized that it might sound like I'll try to lynch my penpal later, and made sure to clear things up. With that being said, I've gotten some good reactions out of it.

For now I'd put mpolo and sabrar in the townie pile, and emlightened on the other end. I can explain why tomorrow, it's just way too late now.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:42 am UTC

dimochka wrote:I realized that it might sound like I'll try to lynch my penpal later, and made sure to clear things up.
I guess I wasn't making my argument clear. Your original post in which you brought up the idea that Pen Pal versions of abilities might be weaker was presented as an argument that scum might try to kill their own pen pals. The same clarification that makes it clear that you won't lynch your pen pal destroys the original argument that mafia might try to kill their own one for exactly the same reason - if mafia still have the option of using the original version of their ability, there's no additional advantage to killing their own pen pal like you implied at first.

Sabrar wrote:- flicky has a 'significant' amount of "me too" posts but at least he acknowledges it and given his newbie status it might not be indicative at all.
Yes, admittedly at this point I'm still a little reliant on seeing what kind of arguments everyone else makes first.

Carlington wrote:I was saying that I expect one scum to have a penpal-caused power, and wondering whether the other scum, who would have likely already been a Godfather in a more normal game, would gain a second power due to having a penpal alive, or just lose their godfatherhood if their penpal dies.
Given that everyone has abilities, Godfather being someone's "normal" (non-pen-pal) role doesn't seem too overpowered in my opinion - there's still around 6 or 7 people (depending on what you assume about the set-up) opposing them with abilities of their own.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby emlightened » Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:52 am UTC

Because dimo's post about me looks like it'll say I'm scummy partly due to voting for him and my reasoning, I do want to note that I didn't actually look in depth at any of the players, I just went off memory of what felt 'off'. Don't think that that initial 'read' is what I'm actually going to base my vote on.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby mpolo » Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:11 am UTC

In answer to jimbob: I focused on independent roles in my questions because we had seemingly already gotten a feel for what people thought about the setup as far as town-scum.

Answering my own questions: I think a cult is unlikely. Some people even consider a cult to be bastardy, but I would not agree with that assessment.

I was originally leaning toward thinking a serial killer is there, but I have since had the feeling that the setup is really too small. If we are 6/2/1/1, for instance, if all three kills (lynch/mafia/SK) were to hit town, we would already be counting on support from the independents to get a town majority. Which was admittedly more or less the case in Shakespeare, but this game was planned a whole lot more than Shakespeare (which was "what would be cool with the submitted roles" more than actively seeking balance).

The lovers idea just occurred to me kind of randomly. Probably not all that likely when push comes to shove.

Finally, what do I think the setup actually looks like? I am thinking 6/3/1 or 6/2/1, with the one being a survivor-type role. Note that with 6/3/1, if the kills fall poorly, we would be needing the survivor to get a majority on the lynch already on day 2.

Weighing against my guess is the plural being used to talk about the number of factions that need to be eliminated. It could be just a generic plural, or could really mean that there is a second anti-town faction of some sort.

As to the question of what I would do as mafia, I usually try to make the kill as random as possible, unless I know that one player is a likely dangerous power role. And I probably wouldn't be pushing myself as much to put material out to discuss.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Jun 04, 2016 10:06 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:if you were a standard mafia scum (i.e. nightly kill), what would be your strategy over the next couple of days?
To be honest, as scum, I would be trying to make sure that any claims I made about roles were vaguely consistent with what everyone else was saying. That's assuming that mafia abilities are going to be clearly mafia abilities if you reveal too much about them.

In terms of who I'd kill... I'd probably focus on avoiding killing anyone who'd been making themselves look suspicious. We've got somewhat of a "suspect list" now throughout everyone's posts, and killing any of them could narrow down who's scum and who isn't, so targeting someone who's never been accused of anything would be logical in order to keep suspicion on the others. Especially if it's mafia that's throwing around accusations in the first place.

...Not sure if I'm giving too much advice to scum there, but you did ask.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby moody7277 » Sat Jun 04, 2016 6:04 pm UTC

emlightened wrote:moody, for seeming unreasonable in their NL response;


Actually, this is a bit subdued for me in response to a No Lynch suggestion. I've been knoen to vote a fella for suggesting that. Don't recall if you've seen me do that in a game though.

jimbob's last statement pings me something terrible. To me, it smacks of trying to get in a bit of pre-night chat scum discussion. FoS: jimbob.

Other people:
Sabrar-- besides the NL thing which is a personal issue, his posting volume and content looks townie to me

emlightened-- setup spec with implication of more info, semi-random vote on dim from short list. reasoning on the short list seems a bit light with some post hoc reasoning after her pick of dim. slightly scummy

flicky1991-- not much setup spec, but some personal role spec. seems to do a better job justifying emlightened's vote than she does. answers jimbob's scum tactics question. on a whole, seems fairly townie

Carlington-- bit of setup spec, drilling down on scum power roles. also answered jimbob's scum tactic question. plugging all the scum interest into the "second instinct is truth" paradigm would indicate he's likely town

dimochka-- setup spec, agrees on the no VT thing. weirdness re penpal changes to power, used implication about lynching penpal for reactions. neutral

Djehutynakht-- detailed spec on penpal pairs, otherwise a bit lurky. neutral to slightly suspicious

mpolo-- penpal spec, cogent anti-D1NL argument, more setup questions, answers jimbob's scum tactics. likely town

Madge-- suggests penpal reveal on death, makes some obvious statements (scum knows town, D1 sucks), no strong reads. slightly suspicious

Votables:
jimbob, DJ, emlightened, Madge
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Snark » Sun Jun 05, 2016 3:13 am UTC

Deadline in ~3 days.

Votals
dimochka - 1 - (emlightened)
Carlington - 1 - (Sabrar)

10 alive, 6 to lynch.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jun 05, 2016 5:09 am UTC

Quick reaction time.

Carlington wrote:Do you expect scum to have two powers each, plus the usual factional kill?
Yes, based on the wording in the setup rules I expect all players to have an ability + something special due to penpal regardless of any alignment powers they already possess.

emlightened wrote:Because dimo's post about me looks like it'll say I'm scummy partly due to voting for him and my reasoning, I do want to note that I didn't actually look in depth at any of the players, I just went off memory of what felt 'off'. Don't think that that initial 'read' is what I'm actually going to base my vote on.
A preemptive defense like this looks slightly scummy to me but I'll wait for the additional amalysis.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:if you were a standard mafia scum (i.e. nightly kill), what would be your strategy over the next couple of days?
Too much of this depends on other circumstances to answer comprehensively (who is my scum-buddy? do we have day-chat? am I a Godfather?) Also as I've started to compose my answer to this the first 2 things I wrote down that I wouldn't do as scum are things I already did earlier so if I try to answer honestly it would be nothing but WIFOM at this point which I'd rather avoid. If you think the actual content rather than the shape of my answer is important please let me know and I'll collect my thoughts again but at this point I don't feel it would be helpful.

moody7277 wrote:jimbob's last statement pings me something terrible. To me, it smacks of trying to get in a bit of pre-night chat scum discussion. FoS: jimbob.
I assumed scum would have day-chat due to the setup being very similar to PyPokemon where this was the case. Also in my opinion it would be quite the stretch to assume that they would want to openly discuss such strategies.


I would like to request a mod-prod on Djehutynakht.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jun 05, 2016 9:02 pm UTC

Post summaries:
Carlington
Spoiler:
Suggests range of possible setups. Has nothing to claim off the bat. Should not claim pen pal and power role - no reasoning. Thinks all power town almost a given. Seems to believe 1 indie, 2 mafia, and an SK very likely. Also thinks a town kill likely, and a cop, but should be wary of trusting the results. Unsure if lovers likely. Suggests to be wary of tracker and watcher results due to roleblocker possibility as well. Penpal power could enhance goon but not godfatherdom. Seems to be very confused by the setup possibilities, but seems to continue to say that he thinks a couple of plain-ish scum would be likely. Disagrees with me re. likelihood of SK. As scum, would target town-town partnerships, try to figure out setup and deal with indies as necessary. Doesn't think dimochka scum due to agreeing on setup. Thinks Sabrar likely town.
Dimochka
Spoiler:
Thinks 6/2/1/1 or 7/2/1 most likely, with SKs and/or survivors. Warns about likelihood of scum/non-scum partnerships. Queries whether people think paired people's powers would be related to one another. Thinks everyone being power role likely. Claims not PGO. Claims power less useful/effective whilst partner alive. Points this out because scum might kill their partner to gain benefits. Provides more info on his power change, and thinks it less useful for town. Has no info re. indies. Thinks cult, lynchers, jesters and lovers unlikely. Opposes No Lynch D1 and D2. Has mpolo and Sabrar as townie, and emlightened scummy.
DJ
Spoiler:
Thinks indie pretty likely, and that mafia more likely to be 2 than 3. Thinks pen pals should remain secret. Thinks confirming pen pal alignment best idea for now. Thinks mod would have prevented scum-scum team. Thinks two town-town teams and three town-non-town teams. Thinks we should come up with lynch candidates (but doesn't suggest any).
emlightened
Spoiler:
Thinks claiming pen-pals wouldn't help scum. Has some setup info from her role, but decides not to share it for now. Power is more useful, but not more powerful whilst pen-pal is alive. Unsure about cult, expects single, or two indies, with SK and survivor, but would like other options. Doubts lovers. Votes dimochka due to apparent backpeddling. Also pings from DJ and moody (the latter due to NL reaction). States vote mostly on what felt "off" not in depth reads. Looks like she is planning on doing more detailed analysis later.
flicky
Spoiler:
Thinks we can assume presence of independent (or cult) due to his ability. Thinks SK likely (based on other people's statements), and Lover pair unlikely. Agrees with emlightened on dimochka "backpeddling", with further illustration of why. Points out that if it was deliberate, it may not be the best of scum plays. Thinks godfather wouldn't be overpowered with other abilities. As scum would try to blend in D1 with others' claims and would kill people not suspected currently.
Madge
Spoiler:
Unsure about whether pen pals claiming is a good idea, if they are dead. Thinks cult unlikely. Originally thinks definitely don't claim whilst both alive, but backtracks. Concerned about pen pal targeting roles. Would prefer not sharing roles generally. Doesn't like the idea of NL, for reasons covered by mpolo. Likes Sabrar's and mpolo's interactions, but doesn't know how to really contribute.
Moody
Spoiler:
Thinks 7/3 possible, but 7/2/1 or 6/3/1 more likely with survivor. Doesn't like Sabrar's No Lynch proposal, justified by mpolo's reasoning. Cult very unlikely; also unlikely SK. Thinks lover pair bit more likely than average game. Lyncher possible, but survivor more likely. Posts reads list. FoSses me for trying to get pre-night chat with scum. Sabrar, flicky, Carlington, mpolo townie. Scummy me, DJ (lurky), emlightened (lack of reasoning), Madge (low content/lack of reads).
Mpolo
Spoiler:
Recommends using pen pal conversation a lot. Suggests cult with recruit whilst leader has pen pal. 7/2/1, 6/2/1/1 likelist setup. Pretty certain at least one town paired with non-town. Power more flexible before death of pen pal. Scum-scum pen pals would allow day chat. Gives reasoning behind No Lynch being a bad idea. Proposes questions for discussion. Cult, SK and lovers all unlikely. Thinks survivor likely independent. Would not put out as much stuff for discussion if scum, and would kill randomly.
Sabrar
Spoiler:
States probabilities of scum/town pairs. Thinks town would have reason to try to keep team-mate alive. Against claiming pen pals. Thinks early on scum will target Town-Town pairs where possible. Doesn't like dimochka's claim, due to possible role-fishing and trying to line up town mislynch. Thinks scum/scum pair entirely possible. Suggests No Lynch for N2 if only one death N1. Complains about his being misrepresented by mpolo and moody. Thinks lovers possible, but not guaranteed pen pals. Jester possible. Survivor likely. Expects both scum to have special ability. Doesn't think dimochka's "backpeddling" an issue. Votes Carlington for casting doubt on possible cop results and that he is downplaying scum powers. Thinks mpolo's questions unhelpful, mine possibly better. flicky is going "me too" a lot. DJ not posting enough. I look townie. Thinks NL earlier on might be more useful. Expects scum to have two powers each. Doesn't like emlightened's pre-emptive defence. Thinks his responses to my question would be WIFOM, so doesn't provide any actual content. Assumes scum have day chat.

Conclusions:
Carlington - I agree that Carlington seems to be severely understating scum's likely powers. Given he says that all power town is a given, and that he thinks 2 mafia (plus an SK) is most likely, it seems odd that the mafia wouldn't be fairly powerful. I think if he thought three scum, I'd be less concerned by this. I don't have an issue with his "beware godfather" statement, since I have done the same as town, although he does take it to another level with also "don't trust watchers or trackers either". Has posted reads on a couple of players. Response on scum tactics very generic. Feels slightly scummy, but not massively so.

Dimochka - his claim is a little weird, and to be honest I found it hard to follow his train of thought here (it definitely feels at first that he is saying that it would be good for his partner to die, but not later on). I agree that there is a hint of role-fishing there, but actually, I would say his non-PGO claim and his query as to whether people thought their powers were related to their partner's powers were worse. Has posted a few reads, but with no real justification yet. I'm swinging a bit on my conclusion here. My seeing the role-fishing I think might be a little bit of bias based on the suggestion that he was, and he has posted more reads than some players. I think he is town, but I am far far from certain on this one, and I look forward to his justification for his reads.

DJ - is being very similar to how he has been in previous games on D1. After that his contributions usually pick up a bit. He calls for lynch-candidate suggestions but doesn't make any of his own, suggesting he is looking for a wagon to join. Somewhat scummy as a result. However, I think I'd prefer not to lynch him today to see if his content picks up on D2, when a better read should be possible.

emlightened - relatively little content, but has posted some thoughts on a small number of players. However, I think she needs to post more reasoning. Slightly town.

flicky - not posted all that much, and as pointed out already is a bit "me too". However, he does provide more reasoning, so I'm comfortable with it. Some more original content would be nice. Slightly town.

Madge - another player with relatively low content. Seems to be concerned about all sorts of possibilities, and hasn't really tried to promote discussion. Somewhat scummy for active lurking.

Moody - glad to see a complete reads list from somebody, but his FoS on me felt a little strong (that is probably somewhat OMGUS). Townie.

Mpolo - has helped provide a lot of discussion, which is good. Sabrar is right that the questions themselves probably don't bring too much, but I reckon any discussion helps flush out scum to some degree. Hasn't posted a reads list of any kind though, or thoughts on anybody really that I can tell, which is the biggest concern I have with him. Slightly townie, but slips to scum side if he doesn't produce some opinions on players soon.

Sabrar - playing pretty much the same as he usually does, and he hasn't triggered anything yet that makes me suspect him. Has posted opinions on a number of players, with explanations. Townie.

Town to scum list (town at top):
Sabrar
Moody
flicky
dimochka
Mpolo
emlightened
Carlington
Madge
DJ

... dang, DJ who I don't particularly want to lynch for reasons stated above is at the bottom of my list.

FoS DJ & Madge

@DJ - I'll likely vote for you tomorrow unless I see some suggestions on who you think should be lynch candidates, along with reasoning.
@Madge - Similarly, I expect more content from you. Please answer mpolo's and my questions and give some opinions on people.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Djehutynakht » Mon Jun 06, 2016 3:34 am UTC

Oh wow. I hadn't even realized I'd been this quiet. It's been a busy week. Sorry, all.
_____

I'm still inclined to believe that it's most likely that we have 2 town-town pairs and 3 town-non town pairs, or 3 town-town and 2 town-non town/non town-non town.

And I'm still not entirely sure that the game would do a mafia-mafia pairing, despite the rules. However, the points about daychat and pen pal powers are pretty valid points, so I can't say that definitively.
_____

For mpolo's questions:

I don't think a cult is too likely. I think it would get a bit too out of hand with only 10 players. I don't have anything that would suggest it, so far as I can tell.

A serial killer is more likely than a cult, I think, but once again with 10 players I dunno. 2 kills/night makes it go pretty fast, so it would need to appropriately balanced.

I think lovers are unlikely. Survivors I think are the most easily possible indie.

I may be biased as like with Sabrar I'm leaning toward a longer game.

__________

I get the critiques of being a hypocrite for suggesting we put forth lynch candidate D1 and then not suggesting any. As many of you know, I never have any idea of what to do on D1 and I find it hard to peg anyone as scummy without any sort of proof. But I was trying to point out that we should move in that direction instead of waiting until Monday night before realizing that we've only discussed setup and now have to vote to lynch someone with absolutely nothing.



I don't have any scum reads, to be completely honest. But I'm sort of leaning town toward Dimochka, Flicky (who seems to be doing the whole 'innocently new to this' thing), and Madge (I can respect the whole no-D1 thing). Kinda town-leaning on Mpolo. More neutral on Moody, emlightened, Carlington, Jimbob, and Sabrar.

I'm looking at Sabrar the most closely. The weird thing is, he's not necessarily pinging me as scum. I'm definitely getting some pings that I'm a bit negative toward, but there's others that I find townie as well. I guess I'd say he's just the player who's interesting me most. I think he's trying to establish himself as the 'leader' of the scumhunting/conversation. Which could be someone trying to earnestly hunt scum, but as often as not is scum trying to dominate to steer any discussion away from themselves (I've never been one for the argument that lurking=scummy. In my view it's equally probably scum try to talk a lot to counter this very stereotype).

Hopefully I can get a more solid read by tomorrow. But this is what I have for now.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 06, 2016 10:00 am UTC

Updated thoughts (BTW will be asleep around deadline, if you have any questions please ask sooner than later).

Carlington: did not address my main concerns about him and some of his wording rubs me the wrong way. That said I don't have much of a case against him so I'm leaving my vote on him just because deadline is near and I have no clearly better alternative.
dimochka: would be great if he posted the explanations he promised earlier, neutral/slightly townie until then.
Djehutynakht: my stance on lurkers should be well known by now, the main problem (aside from making the game less fun) is that if a town!lurker is allowed to live then they can become an easy mislynch later in the game anyway so we might get rid of them right off the bat. As he posted less than 24 hours away from the deadline I don't know if his 'promised' updated reads tomorrow will be in time to allow others to react to.
On another note at first read-through I thought I've spotted something in his content that would strongly suggest Dj to be Town, on second thought I'm not sure. All in all I would not be unhappy if he got lynched but for now I'm not voting for him.
emlightened: my best bet for scum lying low, getting vibes of active lurking from her.
flicky1991: new player, can't read him, neutral content. I'm against sparing newbies from the lynch if they're scummy just because it'd be impolite but that's not the case here. Should live.
jimbobmacdoodle: I continue to not find anything suspicious about him, so he's good for now.
Madge: she was very vocal and consistent about hating D1 across multiple games so I'm reading her current content as 100% neutral (possibly even slightly townie, because as scum she might try harder to avoid lurking). Wouldn't want to lynch today, obviously expect more contribution from her tomorrow.
moody7277: my opinion on him is mainly based on his list of reads which I find solid.
mpolo: good content overall, likely Town.

Potential lynch-candidates for me today: Carlington, Djehutynakht, emlightened

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jun 06, 2016 12:12 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:As he posted less than 24 hours away from the deadline
Am I misunderstanding Snark's posts? We haven't hit 24 hours yet, have we?
Snark wrote:Deadline in 6 "days" and since weekends count down half, that actually means exactly 7 days.
Judging by this initial post we have around 36 hours left.

Either way I'll do a proper post and actually try to make a decision on who to vote for tonight.
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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 06, 2016 12:25 pm UTC

Thanks for noticing, for some reason I thought the deadline was tomorrow. My bad. In that case:

Unvote

for now.

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Re: Pen Pals Mafia [D1: Dear John]

Postby Snark » Mon Jun 06, 2016 4:04 pm UTC

Deadline in ~31 hours.

Votals
dimochka - 1 - (emlightened)

10 alive, 6 to lynch.
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