The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

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Sabrar
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Tue May 10, 2016 1:35 pm UTC

Baker Street Dethy
Spoiler:
So I'm probably going to die tonight as the most confirmed Town. Just great...

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Carlington » Tue May 10, 2016 1:56 pm UTC

Baker Street:
Spoiler:
Time to re-evaluate the game plan, then. I was going to claim today, have everyone investigate me, and then presumably die to an NK N2. Now I'm going to have to claim very first thing tomorrow, and I'll want to hurry so as to be online at daybreak. Then tomorrow we all cop me and I guess I die N2 anyway. Hopefully we gain enough info to work with that way.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 11, 2016 9:37 am UTC

Baker Street Dethy
Spoiler:
So unless scum manages to hit all the sane/insane cops extremely fast I think the proposed strategy should guarantee our win. Sadly I'm not that great at convincing others to follow my lead, plus scum will definitely oppose this.

For future reference: because of this I don't think the setup is balanced even with the change to the Deputy. 11 players (without Deputy) is much better, it offers 1 less night of results and while it still allows the same strategy there is an additional uncertainty as there's no guarantee of a 4-3 split for townie results, it could be 4-2 or 3-3 making even more possibilities available.

Update: in hindsight there probably isn't too much difference between strategies as in the beginning every bit of information would reduce the entropy in roughly the same amount. Mine just makes record-keeping a bit more easier.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby dimochka » Fri May 13, 2016 12:17 am UTC

Baker Street Dethy
Spoiler:
Not much to reveal. I'm some kind of cop.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri May 13, 2016 7:23 am UTC

Baker Street Irregulars:
Spoiler:
in case anyone's wondering, I'm just one of the cops.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Madge » Fri May 13, 2016 7:26 am UTC

Bakers Street Irregulars

Spoiler:
YES IT IS TIME GO GO GO give us results time to make a chart omgg
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Fri May 13, 2016 11:28 am UTC

Baker Street Dethy
Spoiler:
Suzaku was my towniest read because his opening post mirrored his content from Alternating 9P perfectly. Obvious FoS on Esthr because we don't have any results on her, townie points to adnapemit because I was left alive. Of course I could overestimate the impact I'm making, especially if scum doesn't have an experienced member among them.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby adnapemit » Fri May 13, 2016 1:02 pm UTC

Bakers Street Irregulars:
Spoiler:
I hate lying. It's not really in my nature. Hope my result is convincing. I also hope the PM mpolo sent says 'town' and not some other wording.
This is the first time I've been mafia, who knew it was so hard.
I was hoping Sabrar was naive cop or insane cop so the first investigation on me would give town. :D
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Sat May 14, 2016 7:58 am UTC

Baker Street Dethy
Spoiler:
If anyone is interested here's my spreadsheet for keeping track of the possible scenarios:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8uE4k ... sp=sharing

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Tue May 17, 2016 3:24 pm UTC

Will be available as replacement for Baker Street Dethy if it becomes necessary.

'Rant' (not game-specific, contains swearing):
Spoiler:
Four games as Town so far, died N2 in all of them even when we started with 26 players. EVERY. SINGLE. F*CKING. TIME.

In future games you should never lynch me until D3. If I'm still alive at that time it's a good indication that I'm scum. :lol:

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Suzaku » Wed May 18, 2016 1:20 am UTC

@Sabrar, re: Rant
Spoiler:
Next game I mod, I'll create a role that gives you a win if you live to D3.

And a role that wins if they kill you before then :twisted:
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Snark » Wed May 18, 2016 1:31 am UTC

Baker Street Dethy:
Spoiler:
If Esthr turns out to be the second sane cop, we could have 10/10 reported results on D2 the same as the reported results on D1, thus making almost no one able to be eliminated from paranoid-naive contention. If Esthr isn't sane, and Diemo or Mike are sane instead, then we'll still have 9/10 reporting same result as D1 which I think is very good for us.
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Sabrar
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Fri May 20, 2016 9:13 am UTC

Baker Street Dethy:
Spoiler:
117 possible scenarios remain. Some logical conclusions:

If dimochka is Scum then Madge and Snark are both Town.
If Esthr is Scum then jimbob, Mikemk and Snark are all Town.
If Mikemk is Scum then Esthr, jimbob and Snark are all Town.

There is at least 1 Scum in the set {Diemo, emlightened, jimbob}

Also Diemo is the only one confirmed not to be paranoid or naive so he'll probably die next if Town. Theoretically scum could leave him alive to get him mislynched but the additional information that he would provide on the following nights is probably too valuable to risk it.

Edit: I forgot that scum obviously have additional information about the setup so they could have possibly figured out other sane/insane cops. However killing them will draw attention to that fact and possibly reveal more than intended. Serious doublethink required from both factions.

Edit2: While investigating N3 the player 2 below would seem logical, given the current situation it is ineffective compared to some alternatives. My preferred investigation order for N3 based on semi-scientific methods to receive max info (will check after game is over to see if it would have worked):

adnapemit -> Snark
Carlington -> adnapemit
Diemo -> dimochka
dimochka -> Mikemk
emlightened -> Carlington
Esthr -> Madge
jimbobmacdoodle -> emlightened
Madge -> Diemo
Mikemk -> Esthr
Snark -> jimbobmacdoodle

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Sabrar
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Mon May 23, 2016 3:50 pm UTC

Baker Street Dethy:
Spoiler:
Preliminary thoughts:
- Mikemk will be an easy mislynch
- Claim order is significantly more important on D2 and D3 when scum doesn't know who is sane/naive/etc. On D4 they usually have the necessary information available to guess most of it, making the order irrelevant.

More to come later after results have been shared.

Edit: jimbob's result is incredibly useful, we're down to 11 possible scenarios.
Mikemk is 100% naive Cop.
Esthr is 100% Town.
jimbob is likely Town as scum usually disguises themselves as naive or paranoid, which would mean that my reads were once again completely wrong.
If jimbob is Town then emlightened and Snark are proven to be scum, with the third either Madge or adnapemit.

Edit2: down to 7 possible scenarios, Carlington 100% Town. I think worst case is that we'll be down to 3 possible scenarios by the time everybody claimed.

Edit3: 4 possible scum-teams:
adnapemit, dimochka, jimbob
adnapemit, jimbob, Madge
adnapemit, emlightened, Snark
emlightened, Madge, Snark
Last edited by Sabrar on Tue May 24, 2016 7:20 am UTC, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon May 23, 2016 4:07 pm UTC

Baker Street Irregulars Dethy:
Spoiler:
I'm glad I went with the majority. I now know that Snark and emlightened are scum, I am insane, and mike is naive. I may be able to deduce other stuff soon. Unfortunately, I now have to convince everybody else that this is true, and I have to find out who the third scum is. Here's hoping emlightened or Snark say something incriminating...

On the plus side, I am now all but immune to the NK - if I get killed, it gives town confirmation of two scum and one confirmed town.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby dimochka » Mon May 23, 2016 4:38 pm UTC

Baker Street Dethy
Spoiler:
I have a decent portion of the people figured out now, I think
Emlightened is scum
Diemo was a sane cop
jimbob is an insane cop
mike is a naive cop
snark is scum
esthr is a cop, not sure which yet
i'm an insane cop (which is where it all started - got a town result on emlightened after getting scum on diemo who we know is town)

There is a good chance that i can figure out more, but my spreadsheet is a mess, so I'll let the people I know are town help me.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Tue May 24, 2016 9:01 am UTC

Baker Street Dethy
Spoiler:
If players claim results according to the list then Town will have 100% guaranteed plan to win.
- if Carlington claims Town on dimochka then setup is known and scum is {adnapemit, dimochka, jimbob}
- if Esthr claims Scum on adnapemit then setup is known and scum is {adnapemit, jimbob, Madge}
- adnapemit is either naive or scum pretending to be naive and should never claim Scum on Diemo

Assume Carlington claims Scum, Esthr and adnapemit claim Town. dimochka can claim whatever he wants, only 3 possible scenarios remain either way. In this case Town needs to lynch any one of adnapemit, emlightened or Snark today, if mislynch then setup will be known, if correct then only 2 possible scenarios remain and with 1 mislynch still available Town is able to win.

I'm really hoping someone from Town is able to work my spreadsheet as it would be very frustrating to lose at this point.

PS: probably won't be able to participate in future large Dethy's with the same setup. Either I get killed N1 or they'll know I'm scum. :lol:

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue May 24, 2016 1:08 pm UTC

Baker Street Irregulars Dethy:
Spoiler:
I'm going to need to double-check my logic, but I think at least from my point of view, one of Sabrar or Esthr are the other sane cop to go with Diemo. If Sabrar, adnapemit is the third scum, if Esthr, Madge. That confirms Carlington, dimochka and Esthr as town as well now. If I survive tonight, I will have a result on one of Madge or adnapemit (I see no point in me targeting anyone else). That will confirm who the three scum are from my point of view. It then comes down to convincing everyone else of my towniness. More analysis to follow potentially!
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue May 24, 2016 1:24 pm UTC

Baker Street Irregulars Dethy:
Spoiler:
In fact, I think this is solved. All I have to do is commit suicide by lynch today! If dimochka got town on adnapemit, then dimochka must be insane and adnapemit scum. If dimochka got scum on adnapemit, then dimochka is paranoid, and Madge must be scum, because she cannot be sane (got scum on two confirmed town), cannot be insane (got scum on confirmed scum), cannot be naive (got scum results), and cannot be paranoid (Carlington must be paranoid, and dimochka is the other paranoid). That said, it relies on Carlington being paranoid, and I can't remember how I concluded that, so will have to double-check it.

Full logic to follow later when/if I have time.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Carlington » Tue May 24, 2016 2:36 pm UTC

Baker Street Dethy:
Spoiler:
Mainly posting this to get my thoughts clear for when I post this all later after everyone has claimed, and figuring out what I'll post now and what I won't post now.
emlightened and jimbob are anti-aligned. If emlightened is town, she must be paranoid, which means Madge and I cannot be the same kind of cop (or else we're both insane, which I'll get into later).
If jimbob is town then emlightened and Snark are both scum, and jimbob must be insane.
I think that scum has been very lucky so far, as it seems they've been fairly successful in killing off the useful cops.
Probability isn't my strongest suit and never has been, but I calculate that the chance of any given player drawing town, and the first three players they choose to investigate also drawing town, is 42/299, which is about 14%. The chance of drawing town and investigating all scum on the first three nights is 2/495 which is about 0.4%. Rounding off because my calculations don't need to be that precise, that's a 14.5% chance of being a sane or insane cop and getting results consistent with a paranoid or naive cop for the first three nights. That's a little higher than I thought it would be, but also makes me feel fairly confident that I'm paranoid. Now, there are six players so far, three have results that suggest paranoid and three naive. We know that there can only be two of each cop. In my case I know I'm not scum which shrinks the pool, so this gives me 86% confidence that there's scum in between Madge and emlightened. Pending dimochka's claim, of course. Should it come to pass that jimbob is scum, I would be 86% certain Madge is scum, and then the third scum would be one of Esthr, Mikemk, and Snark, and possibly adnapemit pending her result.

I'm getting tireder as I type. I think this still makes sense.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby adnapemit » Wed May 25, 2016 12:54 pm UTC

Baker Street Dethy:
Spoiler:
Town are definitely going to win. Now that I know everyone's sanity I wonder if there was a better order of night kills that could have occurred.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby kalira » Wed May 25, 2016 5:23 pm UTC

Baker Street:

Spoiler:
Have put together my own spreadsheet from an outsider's perspective (i.e. without knowing/presuming that any of the living players are town).

From what I can tell, and correct me if I'm wrong, there are three remaining scenarios.

Presume jimbob is scum, emlightened must be paranoid town, and dim must also be scum (worked out the same way Carlington did with his 4-line proof). Setting up the remaining players (adnapemit, mikemk, snark, madge, carlington, esthr) as the third scum and working through, only adnapemit works out without a logical contradiction.

Presume em is scum, jimbob must be insane town, leading to Snark being scum (via insane jimbob's town result on him) as well. Mikemk must be naïve town due to jimbob's insanity. Set up remaining players as third scum (same as above minus mike), and the possibles are adnapemit and madge.

So,
jimbob, dimochka, adnapemit
emlightened, snark, adnapemit
emlightened, snark, madge

I can't find the logical impossibility jimbob was talking abt that made it so he and dim can't be scum.
(For reference, jimbob+dim+adnapemit scumteam left Sabrar and Snark sane cops, Diemo and Madge insane, em and carlington paranoid, mikemk and esthr naïve -- if that works out correctly?)

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Full logic time....
...
10. dimochka is insane (his town result on emlightened and scum result on Sabrar and 5).
...
Please point any flaws in the logic.


The flaw I saw was that you don't logically prove dim is town before you determine him to be insane. He is just as likely to be scum at that point as any of the other four you logic out down the line. That may have affected your logic down the line; I'm not entirely sure -- you definitely refer back to that point in logicking the others. I ran dimochka as a possible scum and found that there was a logical impossibility there, so it still works out in the long run, but I don't think you can logically presume him to be town at the point where you did in your analysis.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 25, 2016 5:35 pm UTC

Baker Street Dethy (@kalira):
Spoiler:
Have exactly the same results as you.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby emlightened » Wed May 25, 2016 6:37 pm UTC

Baker Street Dethy:
Spoiler:
And this is why Dethy is more fun as Town than Scum... I would love to be able to make those deductions.

Anyway, I considered suggesting jimbob for the nightkill last night, but refrained as he could have been paranoid. We would probably also have been fine to win if jimbob had investigated me instead of Snark, like I thought the plan was.

"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby kalira » Wed May 25, 2016 6:49 pm UTC

Baker Street:

Spoiler:
Sabrar wrote:Baker Street Dethy (@kalira):
Have exactly the same results as you.

Woo!

I do enjoy the logic puzzle aspect of this, but for me (and please don't take this the wrong way, Sabrar!), I feel like posting the spreadsheet/program with a formula to automatically do the logic for everyone kind of spoils it some. I'm obviously perfectly cool with having your own spreadsheet or whatever to keep track and make your own logical decisions, but making it an automatic perfect logic generator seems too far. Gotta let people make their own mistakes in logic, otherwise scumteam may have no chance at all!

So now the game mechanics nerd in me emerges. In the end, this ended up being (essentially) an 11-player game with N0 investigations and no N0 kill (though I'm guessing on N0 in games with that, it's not already assumed/agreed upon that everyone will investigate one person down or one person up, but somewhat more randomized). I wonder if it were run again as a straight up 11-player w N0 investigations if the results would be the same as now. With three scum, after the fourth investigation, everyone knows with absolute certainty whether or not they are in [naïve,paranoid]. Does that seem too early? It seems a little too early to me, but I'll admit I have no experience with checking balance. With original crispy dethy, you know on D2 of a possible total of 3 days (that would be MYLO, right?). I wonder if taking away the N0 investigations from this setup would get it a little closer to that?

This has been really interesting, mpolo! I'm glad you started it.


Baker Street (EDIT [also spoilered!])
Spoiler:
Just realized as I posted that the way this ended up wasn't quite like I described it (11 player game, N0 investigations, no N0 kill) because the group came out of it with a dead body that was confirmed town, which meant one extra conclusion could be logically drawn that wouldn't have been in the game I described -- namely, that Carlington wasn't sane. Not sure how that affected things in the long run, but still, wasn't quite as simple as I described it.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Djehutynakht » Wed May 25, 2016 7:30 pm UTC

Have we ever done an XKCD Mafia-flavored Mafia?

I think this would be an epic venture. We'd need the right organization though.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 25, 2016 7:34 pm UTC

Baker Street Dethy (@kalira):
Spoiler:
kalira wrote:I do enjoy the logic puzzle aspect of this, but for me (and please don't take this the wrong way, Sabrar!), I feel like posting the spreadsheet/program with a formula to automatically do the logic for everyone kind of spoils it some.

No offence taken. I had the same concerns so I specifically asked both the mod and the other players for permission. Although seeing that noone used it in the end, I probably won't share it again in the future anyway.
I think 12 players favors Town too much, 11 players (with no N0 investigation/kill) seems better.

PS: good to see you back on the forums! :)

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby emlightened » Wed May 25, 2016 9:40 pm UTC

Baker's Street Dethy:
Spoiler:
I've kind of completely given up at this point. The plan to lynch me is completely sound, and I figure that someone else would have posted that within the next 12 hours anyway.

"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Madge » Wed May 25, 2016 10:47 pm UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:Have we ever done an XKCD Mafia-flavored Mafia?

I think this would be an epic venture. We'd need the right organization though.


Is this what you're thinking of? We had metamafia three years ago:

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=101040

....far out I've been here a while.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Diemo » Wed May 25, 2016 11:29 pm UTC

Me too. I remember that game, vaguely
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Djehutynakht » Thu May 26, 2016 12:18 am UTC

Madge wrote:Is this what you're thinking of? We had metamafia three years ago:



Yeah, probably something like that.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby freezeblade » Thu May 26, 2016 6:39 pm UTC

That game was fun. I think I was wam?

edit: I was Adam H!
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Diemo » Thu May 26, 2016 6:42 pm UTC

I was wam. I remember because he complimented (sure, lets say that) me about my impersonations
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri May 27, 2016 7:31 am UTC

Baker Street Irregulars Dethy (partly @Kalira):
Spoiler:
@Kalira - I spotted that inconsistency later on myself, but by that point it had already been proven that dimochka and I were co-aligned, so it didn't matter.

With dimochka's result, the final scum team is emlightened and adnapemit. Town victory barring some weird oddities.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Snark » Fri May 27, 2016 4:16 pm UTC

I'm about ready to throw a new game into sign-ups unless someone else wants to go first. What sounds most interesting:

1. King for a Day - Each day's vote is not for the lynch target, but for a player who will unilaterally choose the lynch target for that day. (We've had a game like this before, I think the winner each day was called a King or something).
2. Pen Pals - Players are paired randomly regardless of alignment. Players have private chat with their pen pal, and have a special bonus power (or extra facet of their original power) as long as their partner is alive. Restricted to an even number of players.
3. Bullet Hell - Each player has a one-shot public kill and is one-shot deathproof. Lots of craziness and possibly lots of dying.
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Djehutynakht
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Djehutynakht » Fri May 27, 2016 4:22 pm UTC

They all sound very exciting. The last one seems kind of insane.

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Sabrar
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Fri May 27, 2016 4:36 pm UTC

I would be interested in all 3, personal preference:

1. Pen Pals
2. King for a Day
3. Bullet Hell

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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri May 27, 2016 6:40 pm UTC

Any of them look good to me. I think pen pals would ve my favourite.
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emlightened
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby emlightened » Fri May 27, 2016 6:41 pm UTC

I'd be interested in them all too (but not together), but I think I'd like Pen Pals the most.

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Snark
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Snark » Fri May 27, 2016 6:52 pm UTC

Alright, stuck Pen Pals into sign-ups. Thanks for the quick feedback.
Dashboard Confessional wrote:I want to give you whatever you need. What is it you need? Is it within me?


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