Smalltown Werewolf PYP - F is for Finished!

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sungura » Sat Nov 28, 2015 2:55 am UTC

So, clearly Patzer and Sabrar are connected - wow stuff has gotten juicy since my last post. Anyway - as I had Patzer listed as "third party" and Sabrar not on my list at all (if anything they were striking me as more towny), to have the two connected then they are not aliens or werewolves (unless my reading is really that poor...which I like to think it isnt). So for them to know each other, this means: Lovers, Druids, or Sibling Survivors. (FWIW - I do keep forgetting "lovers" are known town from the OP, I'm used to them being a third party). So:

Patzer and Sabrar as lovers - two town players, if we lynch one, the other dies. No chat abilities but know who each other is. This is obviously SUPER BAD for town. But super good for scum, two birds one stone.

Patzer as Sabrar as Druids - can communicate via PM, win if both die/lynched. Not particularly harmful to town, other than potential wine. Not particularly good or bad to town or scum, far better lynch targets for the town to consider, today.

Patzer and Sabrar as Sibling Survivors - no PM communication, win as long as one is alive end game. Bad for scum, good for town, as they would play town-aligned to not be lynched, maybe a bit of wine to avoid NK's.

So. ALL THREE options for them, mean town should leave them alone. Why? Because we know we really need to hit ALIEN tonight, and if not alien, at least werewolf. Since clearly, Patzer and Sabrar are neither of those, they should not be today's lynch targets.

Therefore: HUGE FOS ON EVERYONE VOTING FOR PATZER.

-->I suggest CF listen to Patzer tonight to see if they can chat. If so, we know they are Druids. If not, then we know they are town/very useful to town.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Dr Ug » Sat Nov 28, 2015 3:11 am UTC

Sungura wrote:So, clearly Patzer and Sabrar are connected - wow stuff has gotten juicy since my last post. Anyway - as I had Patzer listed as "third party" and Sabrar not on my list at all (if anything they were striking me as more towny), to have the two connected then they are not aliens or werewolves (unless my reading is really that poor...which I like to think it isnt). So for them to know each other, this means: Lovers, Druids, or Sibling Survivors. (FWIW - I do keep forgetting "lovers" are known town from the OP, I'm used to them being a third party). So:

Patzer and Sabrar as lovers - two town players, if we lynch one, the other dies. No chat abilities but know who each other is. This is obviously SUPER BAD for town. But super good for scum, two birds one stone.

Patzer as Sabrar as Druids - can communicate via PM, win if both die/lynched. Not particularly harmful to town, other than potential wine. Not particularly good or bad to town or scum, far better lynch targets for the town to consider, today.

Patzer and Sabrar as Sibling Survivors - no PM communication, win as long as one is alive end game. Bad for scum, good for town, as they would play town-aligned to not be lynched, maybe a bit of wine to avoid NK's.

So. ALL THREE options for them, mean town should leave them alone. Why? Because we know we really need to hit ALIEN tonight, and if not alien, at least werewolf. Since clearly, Patzer and Sabrar are neither of those, they should not be today's lynch targets.

Therefore: HUGE FOS ON EVERYONE VOTING FOR PATZER.

-->I suggest CF listen to Patzer tonight to see if they can chat. If so, we know they are Druids. If not, then we know they are town/very useful to town.

And we "know" this based on the fact you had patzer as third party? That's a bit of a stretch on the definition of "know". Unless I've missed something that confirms patzer as non-alien, non-werewolf?
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Dr Ug » Sat Nov 28, 2015 3:17 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I've analyzed this earlier and my opinion didn't change. I find it very unlikely that we would have actual Werewolves among the 6. If there are any scum then I'm 99.99% positive that they would be Alien or Lone Wolf and of course statistically Aliens are more likely.
Thinking about this since my last readthrough, this is still poking out to me. How can you be that sure?

1) you are a werewolf, and you know that there aren't any because you know who the werewolves are
2) you are an alien, and you know patzer is an alien (and in the list) and have some reason to know that one of the others is a lone wolf

and I can't think of any other option there.

And if 1) is true, then I think Amy is likely also a werewolf.
But I actually think 2 is more likely.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:35 am UTC

Dr Ug wrote:Except I only read my role PM, which didn't contain my actual role (which was in the start of day post). The first time I actually read the thread at all, was yesterday when I posted.

So you're saying I should ask for replacement because I wasn't active earlier?


Okay. The game started on November 11; you first looked at the thread on November 26.
I believe you when you say you were busy with work, but if you were so busy that you didn't even have time to look at your role for over two weeks (!), I'd have though you would take a minute to PM Misnomer, say that you're too busy, and ask for replacement. At any point in this two week period.

No, I'm not saying you should ask for replacement now, if your workload has died down and you plan on being more active.

Dr Ug wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I've analyzed this earlier and my opinion didn't change. I find it very unlikely that we would have actual Werewolves among the 6. If there are any scum then I'm 99.99% positive that they would be Alien or Lone Wolf and of course statistically Aliens are more likely.
Thinking about this since my last readthrough, this is still poking out to me. How can you be that sure?


Because we lynched a werewolf (Opus723). And it feels like it would be rather foolish for the werewolves to bus Opus like that on D1.

Given both of these things, plus the fact that he dropped a vote down in his first real post of the game with no analysis attached, with all due respect, it feels like Ug is being intentionally obtuse. I suspect that he's a jester.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Dr Ug » Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:00 am UTC

patzer wrote:
Dr Ug wrote:Except I only read my role PM, which didn't contain my actual role (which was in the start of day post). The first time I actually read the thread at all, was yesterday when I posted.

So you're saying I should ask for replacement because I wasn't active earlier?


Okay. The game started on November 11; you first looked at the thread on November 26.
I believe you when you say you were busy with work, but if you were so busy that you didn't even have time to look at your role for over two weeks (!), I'd have though you would take a minute to PM Misnomer, say that you're too busy, and ask for replacement. At any point in this two week period.
I did look at my role. Nothing in my role PM suggested I needed to look further to see my real role PM (which was public, and in thread, rather than in my role PM). My work is unpredictable, and thus at each point, I did not know I wouldn't have time to post in the following 24 hours. But there's not point in continuing this line. You either believe me or you don't, and you either don't, or are trying to make out that you don't (a common scum practice IMO, similar to trying to push the idea that a game is Bastard to try and discourage non-scum players from devoting time to the game).

Scum bussing is very common. Especially amongst more experienced players. Definitely not enough of a reason to claim to be 99.99 % sure. I'm still going with reason 1 or 2.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:51 am UTC

So there's a lot to react to, I'll have to give this further thought. Two things until then:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar, apologies if you already explained this, but you said "Suspects patzer being Alien which we know she's not" - why do we know this? Oh, never mind, just re-read your wall o' text post. New question: when did you come to the conclusion discussed re. patzer not being alien? Was it in writing this post?

This is crucialityfactor's post from the beginning of D2:
crucialityfactor wrote:I targeted Sabrar and learned that they cannot chat.

Also, I have been targeted by aliens and I must either be voting for patzer at the end of the day or I cannot use my power. So that probably means that Patzer is not an alien, but is still my top pick for being scum at the moment.

As he reported the truth about me I assumed he reported the truth about being mind-controlled as well. He is the first to suggest its implications, my initial feeling was that he is very probably correct in that.
As I mentioned at the beginning of my wall-of-text it took a lot of time to compose and I tried to go through all possibilities. I think I explained at length why it's highly unlikely for cruicalityfactor to lie about his result and therefore I had to take it at face value (if we doubt every little thing then nothing will get done).
I didn't include my reasoning why that necessarily meant that patzer couldn't be an alien but I later spelled it out here.
So to cut a long story short, yes it was during the writing of that post that I came to the conclusion as final.

------------------------------------------

Dr Ug wrote:
Sabrar wrote:I've analyzed this earlier and my opinion didn't change. I find it very unlikely that we would have actual Werewolves among the 6. If there are any scum then I'm 99.99% positive that they would be Alien or Lone Wolf and of course statistically Aliens are more likely.
Thinking about this since my last readthrough, this is still poking out to me. How can you be that sure?

1) you are a werewolf, and you know that there aren't any because you know who the werewolves are
2) you are an alien, and you know patzer is an alien (and in the list) and have some reason to know that one of the others is a lone wolf

and I can't think of any other option there.

Before I reply to anything you say, please explain which scum-faction crucialityfactor belongs to. According to him I do not have chat-abilities so he must be lying, right?

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:51 am UTC

Dr Ug wrote:I did look at my role. Nothing in my role PM suggested I needed to look further to see my real role PM (which was public, and in thread, rather than in my role PM). My work is unpredictable, and thus at each point, I did not know I wouldn't have time to post in the following 24 hours. But there's not point in continuing this line. You either believe me or you don't, and you either don't, or are trying to make out that you don't (a common scum practice IMO, similar to trying to push the idea that a game is Bastard to try and discourage non-scum players from devoting time to the game).

Scum bussing is very common. Especially amongst more experienced players. Definitely not enough of a reason to claim to be 99.99 % sure. I'm still going with reason 1 or 2.

Okay. That's a reasonable explanation.

Yes, bussing is common as scum; I just don't see any reason they'd do so in these circumstances. But you are correct that it's possible that there were some werewolves on the wagon.

"99.99% sure" is presumably an exaggeration, but I think we can be about 80% sure that there were no werewolves on that wagon. (if Jimmy's claim is correct, then there were only two scum players on the wagon, who could easily be aliens or lone wolves).
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby #HBC | YOLOSWAG » Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:06 am UTC

Been AWOL due to holiday weekend. See y'all Sunday when I catch up on everything.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby #HBC | YOLOSWAG » Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:10 am UTC

Quick question to Sungura and/or anyone who understands her thought process: What basis are you using to divide your scumteams? Why are you saying, "A is X alignment, so is B, C is y alignment, and D is Z alignment?" How are you differentiating? Why are you directing CF to Patzer off the assumption that she's teamed w/Sabrar when he's already been investigated as not being able to communicate? I don't understand any of this.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby mpolo » Sat Nov 28, 2015 8:12 am UTC

From my experience, Sungura is a mistress of dark magic, who somehow at the end of the day when I have no reads, posts a spoiler in Gojoe pinning 80–90% of the alignments down precisely. (No idea if she's done that this time.)

I am pretty convinced that we are seeing Sungura as town, as she is being very forthcoming with her theories about who is what (rather than hiding them over at Gojoe to gloat about later).

Patzer/Sabrar seem to be more likely lovers or siblings, based on the information at hand. (Assuming CF is truthful.)

Misnomer: Is the sibling survivor win-con consistent with the town win-con? Or does town have to make sure that both survivors are gone before killing the last scum?

(The question is because the other 3rd-parties seem to end the game if they win, which might mean that the survivors win and town doesn't if there are no "enemies" left. Perhaps unlikely, but I'd rather know for sure.)

In any case, even if their win-con is not consistent with town, the survivors are obviously not a high-priority item for town at this time. And lovers would be town, so obviously poor targets.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Sat Nov 28, 2015 8:37 am UTC

@all: So by this time some of you have already accepted jimbobmacdoodle's analysis as gospel, despite his biased disposition (oh and by the way he is still number 1 on my scum-list). I've given it some thought and came to the conclusion that I'm 'screwed' either way (using quotation marks because it's not really that hurtful if you confuse me with a townie-aligned independent). Extrapolating from previous reactions if I go through jimbobmacdoodle's list and refute it one-by-one (which I know I could do) then you'll say I'm trying too hard, if I don't then you'll think I'm not capable of it. So please advise, what would it take from me to convince you that I'm not in league with patzer? As a newbie I'm really not aware on what criteria people judge here (see earlier 'celebratory' issue which I really don't understand).
So for now I have just one remark: pointing out possible non-scum teams in public is not a townie-play in this game as it alerts scum to potential Lovers, making their job much easier. I really liked the tone of jimbobmacdoodle's last few posts and started to doubt myself in my earlier reads on him, however after this I'm more convinced than ever and will 99.99% vote for him tomorrow. See what I did there?

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Nov 28, 2015 10:01 am UTC

Firstly, if I were scum, there'd be no reason to post that analysis out in the open, since if scum!me with a kill thought you were lovers, I'd just kill you, if a wolf and bothered about you two. Alien!me would have no reason to try to confirm such a team, since it would mean there were fewer players to hide amongst.

I'm not sure I'd call my analysis biased, but I will accept that I went into it looking for links, and found lots of them. I accept that it doesn't definitely mean you are tied together. However, I do believe that you are. I was trying to encourage a claim, because I think patzer is likely a Survivor. I don't think a lover would say they could prove their alignment so early in the game day. I'd already got a hint that the two of you are linked previously, and since I have no reason to doubt crucialityfactor's result, that would place you two as Survivors.

I'd hoped patzer would have claimed. If she had, and been backed up, it would mean two less people to focus our lynches on so that we could find scum. Assuming a Survivor win does not detract from town, the only reason to lynch them would be to prevent them from supporting one of the scum teams.

@patzer if you are a Survivor, I think you should claim still.

As it doesn't look likely that a claim is forthcoming, and as I feel it now likely that patzer is not scum (I don't believe that scum would make the fake prove alignment gambit that early), I will:

Unvote

I need to have a bit more of a think about who might be scum, before placing a new vote.

I don't like Sabrar's reaction to my analysis mind you. It sounds extremely defensive. However, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now, since I think it likely he is Patzer's teammate.

@Sabrar, it wouldn't hurt if you post some reasons where my reading is completely wrong. I'll try not to react badly to it! If I am wrong, it's in town's benefit to disprove me, as otherwise we risk leaving scum!patzer alive thinking that they are your teammate, which would make them non-scum.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Lawrencelot » Sat Nov 28, 2015 11:11 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Possibly also scum who has discussed with a teammate that they could fake claim something, but unlikely.

Scum can day-chat so I wouldn't count this out. (I assume scum could day-chat since I could day-chat with weiyaoli and there's no night)

On that note, Sabrar says this "In case patzer can really prove her innocence as stated before this looks incredibly scummy." To me, this casts suspicions on patzer being able to prove her role, which could be read as not-teammate-with-patzer!Sabrar, but also could be a hint suggesting not to claim by Sabrar.

On the other hand, since scum can day-chat this seems less likely. Your other points seem valid though.

@Sabrar: if you have the time to refute the points about you, just do it. Why would I or any townie believe jimbob over you? Sungura is someone else, but you can at least try.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Dr Ug » Sat Nov 28, 2015 11:57 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@all: So by this time some of you have already accepted jimbobmacdoodle's analysis as gospel, despite his biased disposition (oh and by the way he is still number 1 on my scum-list). I've given it some thought and came to the conclusion that I'm 'screwed' either way (using quotation marks because it's not really that hurtful if you confuse me with a townie-aligned independent). Extrapolating from previous reactions if I go through jimbobmacdoodle's list and refute it one-by-one (which I know I could do) then you'll say I'm trying too hard, if I don't then you'll think I'm not capable of it. So please advise, what would it take from me to convince you that I'm not in league with patzer? As a newbie I'm really not aware on what criteria people judge here (see earlier 'celebratory' issue which I really don't understand).
So for now I have just one remark: pointing out possible non-scum teams in public is not a townie-play in this game as it alerts scum to potential Lovers, making their job much easier. I really liked the tone of jimbobmacdoodle's last few posts and started to doubt myself in my earlier reads on him, however after this I'm more convinced than ever and will 99.99% vote for him tomorrow. See what I did there?
The mistake you're making is that your town wincon is not to survive, it's to eliminate anti-town. So putting information out there is always better as town. If you die, either by lynch or NK, then at least any thoughts / impressions etc you had are available to those of us left at that point. Deciding not to put information out in case it's seen as scummy, is scummy of itself, as your goal shouldn't be to not seem scummy, but to find those who are scum.

TL;DR: post your refutation of jimbob. I for one would be interested as I seem to have a very different read on him to yours.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Sat Nov 28, 2015 12:00 pm UTC

@Dr Ug:
Sabrar wrote:Before I reply to anything you say, please explain which scum-faction crucialityfactor belongs to. According to him I do not have chat-abilities so he must be lying, right?

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sungura » Sat Nov 28, 2015 4:24 pm UTC

Sorry i missed that Sabrar cant chat. This means they (patzer and sabrar) are lovers or survivors. Lovers are town, and survivors are practically town aligned since they want to survive to end game. At the very least as survivors they are useful until day 6, to fight aliens. And we need numbers. If they are to survive theyd have to attack aliens.

So even with missing the Sabrar cant chat (sorry cf) now my hypothesis is even stronger to leave them alone.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Nov 28, 2015 10:46 pm UTC

I thought I'd spend some time this evening and tomorrow reviewing some of the quieter players, as it wouldn't surprise me if some or all of the aliens (and potentially other scum) are hiding there, trying to keep their heads down whilst we lynch and kill each other.

Yoloswag:
Not posted all that much, but what he has posted seems solid. His first serious post suggests some basic strategies for scum hunting early on, along with the statement that he believes that early on we shouldn't advise others on who to use abilities on. I can certainly see where that logic comes from. He picks up early on Opus (at least I think it's before most others, but I'm not reading him in relation to everyone else's posts for time's sake). He shows suspicion for Lawrencelot's vote as did most of us, and thinks he picked up some pings from the discussion of druids claiming. Overall, seems reasonable for now. FoSses weiyaoli for his vote on me, as feigned scum-hunting. Retracts this once weiyaoli makes his claim. FoSses Vytron, who we know now to be scum, because he felt Vytron was trying to set up fake connections. FoSses Sabrar for his suspicions over the mason claims. Unwilling to place his vote so that he can use his power, which makes perfect sense. Claims he killed Vyton N1, which I see no reason to doubt. Also not under mind control. He does jump on patzer following my statement that 2 of the Opus voters were scum. His justification is essentially because he doesn't think anyone else is scum. In that same post, he also expresses suspicion of znirk giving reasons.

Overall, Yoloswag seems pretty town to me.

Diemo:
He initially posted a few times, giving basic suspicions on a few players, but with very few reasons to back them up. Encourages everyone to ignore ConMan's secret role, multiple times. He moves onto doubting Lawrencelot's mason claim, having previously expressed suspicion of him like everyone else for his vote on roadierich. In fact, reading his first two posts with any content, they seem quite similar. He is suspicious of Lawrencelot, find Snark townie and plays down discussion of ConMan's role in both of them. in his second post, he also briefly supports an Opus lynch and an investigation of Suzaku, plus using himself as a baseline for Dr Ug. My instinct for a player not saying much that repeats himself in two separate posts is that there's some sort of tie there. I could see him as a teammate with ConMan, who knows what his role is.

If ConMan is able to chat with other players, can he tell them what his role is?

A little over a day later, he decides that he doesn't like the idea of lynching Lawrencelot, even though he found his claim suspicious the day before, but pushes for a night kill rather than a lynch of him. I could see that being an attempt to influence the night kills away from his team, if he is on a non-town one. Nothing too concrete there though. He also makes some observations on others that seems a little against the run of general opinion. In particular he mentions that he was pretty sure SDK was a jester before replacing out, and suddenly disagrees with Snark. 24 hours later, he flips around on SDK, and basically says that it looked like it was typical SDK play-style. He reiterates his belief about Snark's advice being bad. Finally, he promises more the next day, but never posts again.

Diemo has not posted in over a week. Modprod/replacement for him, please!

My main concern with Diemo is that his opinions seem to be all over the place on some people (Lawrencelot, SDK), whilst mentioning only a very small number of people. Those he does mention he either repeats what he said from previous, with no real new statements, or flips around on them.

Overall, I definitely could see Diemo as scum, possibly on a team with ConMan and/or Snark.

FoS Diemo

I'll look at some of the other quiet ones tomorrow.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Diemo » Sun Nov 29, 2015 2:38 am UTC

I'm sorta here, I keep meaning to reply but the thread is moving too fast, and frankly this is a game so I am only going to play it if I enjoy it.

I am not going to drop out because I know that my motivation will be better in a while.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sungura » Sun Nov 29, 2015 3:18 am UTC

So you have no motivation because it is too much, but you will later, and you are having fun? Having fun what, watching us play? No please, do explain. Because that sort of shit is totally anti town. FOS diemo.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Diemo » Sun Nov 29, 2015 4:03 am UTC

No please, do explain.


No thanks.

Yes I am aware this is anti-town. But meh.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sungura » Sun Nov 29, 2015 4:14 am UTC

Soooo obvious jester is obvious. Or scum. Okay then. Made it to day two and we dont care anymore. Awesome. Someone kill diemo so if jester they cant win. And if scum we are over and done with them. Kthx.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Sun Nov 29, 2015 4:19 am UTC

Sungura wrote:Awesome. Someone kill diemo so if jester they cant win. And if scum we are over and done with them. Kthx.


To be more precise, we should ask RoadieRich to kill diemo.

That would be a useful test of RR's loyalty.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sungura » Sun Nov 29, 2015 1:42 pm UTC

patzer wrote:
Sungura wrote:Awesome. Someone kill diemo so if jester they cant win. And if scum we are over and done with them. Kthx.


To be more precise, we should ask RoadieRich to kill diemo.

That would be a useful test of RR's loyalty.

I would be for that. I cannot abide ny useless people.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Nov 29, 2015 7:21 pm UTC

Some more reads/summaries of our less frequent posters. If you would prefer a different formatting or style to how I do these sorts of posts (e.g. spoilers, max one player per post etc), please let me know:

ConMan:

Starts off with agreeing with various players re. aliens as a priority and other scum after that. Suggests Xela as baseline plus two other investigation targets for Darryl. Thinks we should determine Suzaku's alignment, and then vote for him. Unsure what to do up to that point. Discusses how Dr Ug's results are essentially clues in a logic puzzle. Following on from Sungura and faubiguy's suspicion of voting for Suzaku, he repeats his previous statement on the idea, but with a more solid against it until alignment confirmed opinion. Is otherwise scared of them being alien or werewolf. Thinks D1, investigators should target different groups, but co-ordinate more on later days. Votes Lawrencelot for voting roadierich without discussion. Would much rather be made a doctor than a nurse, which is not surprising (I'm not sure there's anyone where this wouldn't be true), but does actually volunteer to be one. This could be alien or werewolf-scum!ConMan or Survivor!ConMan trying to become a doctor to replace a less useful power. Of course, the same could also be said for town!ConMan. Most of the other factions might find a use for it as well, possibly except lone wolves.

Nothing really pings me from any of the above so far. In a larger post he discusses the setup in more detail. He encourages Van to spawn doctors again, but not from killers or investigators at this stage. Suggests himself again, and Sabrar, due to the wait to gain any ability. Suggests reducing the number of kills once a few aliens have been hit. Happy with being tracked by dimochka. Also wouldn't be surprised by other investigations on himself, but reiterates his belief that they should target a range of people. Discusses the voters on Suzaku a bit, speculating on the likely alignment breakdown. Thinks most are likely to be townie, but not all.

Isn't particularly happy with Sungura's reaction to the Lawrencelot voters, but believes it to be part of her play-style. Thinks that Lawrencelot might have been weiyaoli's crush, which would explain his protectiveness of Lawrencelot. Considers whether to join the patzer wagon. Ends up withholding his vote due to lack of reads on anyone.

D2 he denies knowing anything about being paranoid, in response to the idea that ConMan might be a Paranoid Gun Owner. Thinks that scum took out dimochka to make him look suspicious. Disagrees with the nursifying of Znirk by Van, and FoSses her for the action. At this point, I'm beginning to think that he's getting a bit fixated with the idea of protection roles, something which I could definitely see an alien being (again survivor is also possible here). I'd expect the opposite from wolf-type players. Town could go either way, but I'm not sure would be quite so fixated. Votes Suzaku following frogman's investigation result, but points out that we can't know for certain that Suzaku is town unless we can confirm frogman as town, or at least on a different team. Concludes that post with a brief explanation for withholding his vote. This post was also the post where he made his mistake regarding the alien numbers. This could be an honest mistake, or it could be coming from an alien who accidentally revealed the total number (I'd presume 3 in that case).

He claims his alien number mistake was because of a failure to read properly (certainly possible - I made a mistake regarding the minimum number of wolves earlier). He then AGAIN repeats his comments re. Van and doctoring, again suggesting himself as a doctor target. He then mistakes Znirk's ability for a kill ability. This one is almost certainly a genuine mistake. One thing it does seem likely is that he is not someone who knows Znirk's alignment through being on their team, particularly if that team has chat abilities. I doubt a scum teammate of Znirk would make that sort of mistake.

His most recent post follows a reread, and contains a vote on patzer because of her lack of content and her lack of concern for aliens. He does acknowledge his own shortcomings regarding content at this point. Claims not to be mind-controlled and lists reasons why there might have been so few claimed mind-control results. Thinks it most likely that they either didn't perform their action or targeted dead people. Swings back a little on his displeasure with the nursifying of Znirk. Finally, thinks investigation results are most likely to be true.

Overall, my main concern with ConMan is just how fixated he seems to be on Van and her ability. He posts about it a significant number of his posts, and virtually all of them after he first suggests the idea. Possibly to me sounds a bit like someone who had an idea that becoming a doctor would be a good thing, and then keeps wanting to push it, which seems more likely to be scum than town thinking. His relatively low level of analysis on players is also a little concerning. If I discount those two points though, I can't really find much fault with him. If he is scum, I think he is likely to be alien. On the surface of it, I wouldn't oppose lynching him, but I need to think a bit more about whether he is scum or just fixated townie, with no strong opinions. Conclusion: scum-leaning neutral.

@ConMan, could you try posting some thoughts on a few more players. If you couldn't lynch patzer, who would you lynch? Similarly, if you could prevent someone, other than Lawrencelot (confirmed mason) or Suzaku (probably town, but possibly not I guess) from being lynched or killed today, who would it be and why?

crucialityfactor:

His first post he is concerned with aliens, and thinks that investigations need to spread out. He then posts a load of Maths relating to how likely he is to find different factions with his power. Really doesn't see why druids should claim, and says that they should keep quiet. He backs that up with quite a bit of explanation why it is not useful for druids, and also potentially harmful to town. He moves onto talking about roadierich, thinking from a (I reckon flawed) meta-gaming perspective, that it is unlikely he is aliens or werewolves. He thinks that roadierich would be a reasonable target for his ability, but that because of his belief about what roadierich is not likely to be, that it would be harmful if anything. Thinks that an alignment check would be in order. Votes Suzaku to activate their power. Initially feels like Lawrencelot's actions were misguided, but tending more to scummy later on, but doesn't take a firm view. Subsequently says that he doesn't feel like Lawrencelot is scum, but that his attitude rubbed him the wrong way.

He next posts a summary of his top three lynch candidates, Lawrencelot, patzer and Opus, giving reasons for all three. In particular, he believes Lawrencelot and patzer to be on different teams. Opus he thinks would be a better lynch than the other two, if unable to use the "comparison power". I'm not sure I follow what that meant, but I think it has something to do with Dr Ug's ability. If I understand it correctly, crucialityfactor thinks that X > Opus > Y (where '>' means scummier, and X and Y are Lawrencelot and patzer in an unknown ordering).

@crucialityfactor, could you clarify what you meant in your conclusion here, please.

Following weiyaoli's claim, he votes patzer, which is consistent with his previous post. He also says he could be "convinced of a few others" but without saying who. Dislikes my and SirGabriel's requests for Lawrencelot to confirm weiyaoli's claim. Apparently, he missed the point about masons not technically both being confirmed until both parties have confirmed it. Tries to deflect discussion away from them masons, and considers it bad for town that they are now confirmed. I agree that it's not great that they are confirmed, but at least any town-aligned kills and the lynch are not going to be targeting Lawrencelot.

Start of D2 and he claims that Sabrar cannot chat. He doesn't say why he targeted Sabrar though. He also claims to be mind-controlled to vote for patzer. Given that this was who he was voting for on the previous day, I'm not quite sure why the aliens did this, assuming that crucialityfactor is telling the truth.

@crucialityfactor, why did you target Sabrar last night?

He follows up in his next post with more discussion on the mind control issue and why there are relatively few claims. Thinks that aliens may be amongst the infrequent posters, which mirrors my thoughts (hence why I'm even doing this style of reread).

His final substantial post contains a list of thoughts on a range of players. He has decided that he thinks patzer wants to be lynched because of their relative lack of thoughts on people, despite her post-frequency, and won't vote for her unless she won't be lynched because of it. Reiterates his belief that patzer is unlikely to be alien, due to him being the mind-control vote target. Thinks we should focus on aliens more now. Thinks SDK's low post content was because of him being busy, hence the replacement, but that freezeblade also needs to post more content. His analysis of faubiguy looked a bit odd when I first read it, as I thought he'd jumped on him rather harshly. However, his point about faubiguy trying to stoke aggression versus patzer made me think why would aliens want patzer dead? Because her power could easily pick up an alien using their's. I'm definitely going to look back at faubiguy next. Crucialityfactor concludes with a vote on faubiguy, which makes sense given what he's said about his beliefs on different people.

I'm not sure I see anything particularly scummy with crucialityfactor at this stage. On the other hand, I also don't see anything that I would say is town any more than scum looking for other scum. I'd like to see his thoughts on some of the other active players when he gets time. I think if he is scum, he is unlikely to be on a team with faubiguy. Conclusion: neutral.

faubiguy:

Hopefully, this should be quite quick, as he is definitely in the "infrequent poster" camp. He opens up with an agreement re. focusing on aliens. Investigation results should be public, being mind controlled should be claimed. None of that is particularly scummy, but nor is it townie, since most of the points I think are relatively obvious ideas. Also talks briefly about the killing roles, in particular noting that Yoloswag would be suspicious if he chose to kill instead of his other powers. If I am looking for alien clues, that's definitely one - trying to persuade others that Yoloswag should not be killing might be a case of trying to reduce the number of kills, and thus the number of aliens hit by said kills. On the other hand, if I take a step back, I can believe that his belief is genuine, as I had kind of expected Yoloswag to protect someone last night. His next (brief post) points out sensible thoughts regarding Darryl's ability and frogman's research target.
faubiguy wrote:Yes, but an unknown role is more of a risk to town if the player that has it is anti-town themself.

I don't agree with this statement. An unknown role could be anything from non-existent to very powerful. Since we don't know the alignment of the player, the risk is essentially neutral at this point. There is just as much chance that it is a powerful role and that ConMan is pro-town. I do broadly agree with his thoughts on the second lynch idea being a bad thing, since as he points out there are all sorts of ways scum could mess up that play.

Looking at faubiguy's post regarding Sabrar's lack of aliens, I don't think I agree with crucialityfactor that this is a significant scum tell, as I noted the same thing. You may notice that when I see something suspicious, I tend to explain why I think it suspicious, and much of the way I phrase things can be similar to how faubiguy does here. I don't necessarily consider it aggressive.

His final post is the one that stuck out to crucialityfactor the most, and did to me when I saw it in his analysis of faubiguy. Firstly, he claims not to have targeted anyone. I'm trying to think why he wouldn't, and here's my conclusion:
1) He forgot. I doubt this, as he does not say that he did.
2) He could have targeted Lawrencelot or weiyaoli since either of them were likely kill targets due to their mutually confirmed mason alignment. Of course, this could have resulted in faubiguy dying in exchange, but that would have left confirmed town alive with more powerful abilities (at least in my opinion) in exchange. Why wouldn't he want to do this? Because he isn't town, or, remotely possibly, he is a lover.
3) He could have targeted someone else entirely, but that could have simply confused investigation results.
Given the apparent desire of aliens to kill patzer, I think they are scared of her tracking ability. Alien!Faubiguy could have chosen to withhold his ability, but use his mind-control in an attempt to bump off patzer. However, if he got tracked, he could fall back on the idea that he was using his redirection power instead, as it is relatively unlikely that his target was the target of an investigation, given the relatively small number of investigators with secret targets. The same logic doesn't work for a wolf kill ability, since then he couldn't fake using his power.

@faubiguy, please justify your lack of choosing a target last night.

Strictly speaking, faubiguy is right with his statement regarding Lawrencelot not being confirmed before weiyaoli's flip, but I think he's stretching it a little far and I agree that he's being overly aggressive. Given my conclusions re. aliens wanting to kill patzer and why, I think this is a scum tell, although not the strongest part of my belief, having done that re-read.

Vote faubiguy

I think faubiguy is one of the aliens, because of his aggressiveness versus patzer, but he could also be another scum faction. Most of his posting early on is fairly safe. To me, him withholding his action is the scummiest thing, given the state of play. I could have accepted a defence of avoiding confusing investigations if we hadn't have had the mason claims. He has also gone very quiet - his last post was over a week ago.

Please could we have a modprod on faubiguy.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Sun Nov 29, 2015 7:52 pm UTC

@jimbobmacdoodle: I'm curious about your criteria when choosing who to investigate due to lack of content. While I agree about Diemo and faubiguy, I would have thought that e.g. Snark or Znirk would be next on your list as they were much less active on D2 than the other 3 you analysed and in both of their last posts they promised further content but did not deliver. Are you actively avoiding them?

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:14 pm UTC

Nope, I've basically picked randomly from some people who I didn't think had posted all that much. There wasn't anything scientific to it. I haven't had time to investigate everyone, but if I get a chance to, I will be looking at others, including those two.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby ConMan » Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:20 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Overall, my main concern with ConMan is just how fixated he seems to be on Van and her ability.

This is a valid concern, and I think it's my coping mechanism when there seems to be too much information out there to work with. I just find one or two points to focus on, and drill deep on them, rather than trying to scan everywhere for hints about what's going on.

[quote[@ConMan, could you try posting some thoughts on a few more players. If you couldn't lynch patzer, who would you lynch? Similarly, if you could prevent someone, other than Lawrencelot (confirmed mason) or Suzaku (probably town, but possibly not I guess) from being lynched or killed today, who would it be and why?[/quote]
And on that note, this is a very good question, and one which I will answer as soon as I am able.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby #HBC | YOLOSWAG » Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:35 pm UTC

Reread.

People who are probably scum: freezeblade, Diemo, crucialityfactor, Dje, patzer, Faubiguy, Znirk.

freezeblade for reasons I refuse to rehash. Diemo can go for no effort so I'll just call him scum. crucialityfactor through sense of smell. Dje for jester play. patzer: see freezeblade. Faubiguy because we're nearing the end of D2 and he has not scumhunted or voted once in this game. Znirk for reasons I've covered as well.

I'd vote but I'm using a power tonight. I don't object to either of the main wagons.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Misnomer » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:00 am UTC

Diemo & faubiguy have both now requested replacements - this will be arranged shortly. Additionally RoadieRich and Snark will be prodded.

Jimbobmacdoodle wrote:If ConMan is able to chat with other players, can he tell them what his role is?
No.

mpolo wrote:Misnomer: Is the sibling survivor win-con consistent with the town win-con? Or does town have to make sure that both survivors are gone before killing the last scum?
Sibling survivors can win with town.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Snark » Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:44 am UTC

patzer wrote:
Sungura wrote:Awesome. Someone kill diemo so if jester they cant win. And if scum we are over and done with them. Kthx.


To be more precise, we should ask RoadieRich to kill diemo.

That would be a useful test of RR's loyalty.

Diemo's a little too obvious of a jester, seems more like a druid. That said, a vig pointed at them would probably be better than a random vig kill.

I'm back from Thanksgiving vacation and in front of a monitor again so I'll have a content filled post soon-ish.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby patzer » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:11 am UTC

Misnomer wrote:Diemo & faubiguy have both now requested replacements - this will be arranged shortly. Additionally RoadieRich and Snark will be prodded.


Good.

Both dimochka and Madge are available, IIRC, so we shouldn't have to wait too long for replacements.
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for the record, at the moment my gut feelings on the players are:

diemo - 3rd party
freezeblade - scum
Jimmy - probably scum
crucialityfactor - unsure, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's an alien.
Dr Ug - probably not town
Sungura - probably town
Sabrar - probably town
Znirk - probably town
Lawrencelot - confirmed town

Others - no instinctive opinion, as they've been less active.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Misnomer » Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:08 am UTC

Madge is replacing Diemo with immediate effect.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby RoadieRich » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:48 pm UTC

I'm still here. Been busy with work - the short week for thanksgiving meant everything had to be fixed *now*.

I've been reading, but I will take a look back. There's some things I've seen that I like, others I don't.

I'm not going to accept any "Test of loyalty" that isn't proposed by confirmed town - especially when the proposer was high on a few people's scum lists.

Other than that, I will post later today, as the problems today are in someone else's code, for once.

For those interested, I'm already pretty sure I know who I will be targeting.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby moody7277 » Mon Nov 30, 2015 3:02 pm UTC

hard data:
sabrar does not have chat
cf under mind control to vote patzer

first point means sabrar is either town, lone wolf, jester, or traitor. I'm about 75/25 in favor of one of the non-town factions, but some of those can be safely ignored for now as we have more important targets (aliens), and sabrar isn't one.

second point means patzer is likely not alien. I agree with those who are saying that the aliens pointed cf at an alien would be unnecessarily cutsey.

Interestingly, both of those points hinge on cf being truthful. Lack of any other mind control is interesting, but I think someone pointed out they are likely travelling single file to hide their numbers.

SirG defending fb after discussing why he would be so dangerous as non-town. Not sure why he's so powerfully anti-alien as SirG says.

And it looks like we put Diemo/Madge on the to ignore list as well.

At this point I would not vote patzer, and am comfortable where my vote is now.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby RoadieRich » Mon Nov 30, 2015 3:10 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Lack of any other mind control is interesting, but I think someone pointed out they are likely travelling single file to hide their numbers.

Another option is that CF is Alien.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Mon Nov 30, 2015 3:36 pm UTC

@RoadieRich: please have a look at this post where I analyzed (among others) the possibility of crucialityfactor being an Alien. Let me know where your thought process differs from mine.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Nov 30, 2015 3:45 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:SirG defending fb after discussing why he would be so dangerous as non-town. Not sure why he's so powerfully anti-alien as SirG says.

I'm not sure where you're getting this. If freezeblade is anti-town (especially alien), and he picks his own targets, and then we lynch his targets because that gets us more kills on suspected scum, then he's dangerous. If we tell freezeblade who to target, then he's not dangerous: either he follows our instructions and we get twice as many lynches on suspected aliens, making an alien victory much less likely, or he doesn't follow our instructions and we lynch him. As long as the town can come up with a general consensus on which pair we want to lynch tomorrow, and as long as freezeblade is not a jester (in which case lynching him today wouldn't be any better), then I don't see how this plan could backfire. I'm not defending freezeblade, I'm just saying don't lynch him today so we can use his power for alien hunting.

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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby moody7277 » Mon Nov 30, 2015 4:00 pm UTC

For your plan to work:

We'd have to know two aliens.
Freezeblade would have to be an anti-alien faction (werewolves would work in this case).
Freezeblade would have to be willing to work with town (jester or traitor would likely not).

That's a lot of conditionals for a plan. It looks like you are disproportionately giving the upside in order to get fb off the hook.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby RoadieRich » Mon Nov 30, 2015 4:41 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@RoadieRich: please have a look at this post where I analyzed (among others) the possibility of crucialityfactor being an Alien. Let me know where your thought process differs from mine.

The aim for aliens at the moment is to get anyone other than themselves lynched, so the game lasts until D6. If Opus was protecting Patzer, that implies Patzer is a werewolf, so would be an appropriate target for the aliens to want lynched. Even if Opus wasn't protecting P, and P is in fact alien, the argument could also be made that they were distancing themselves, and that the choice of forced vote target is intended to avoid a patzer lynch (because that's what it looks like the Aliens want).

CF's vote is pretty much irrelevant, the last lynch happened with 6 votes. Even better if he doesn't need to claim a target tomorrow, and risk being exposed in a lie.

To a lesser extent, the aliens also want scum dead: less kills mean less chance of aliens dying before D6. I'm inclined towards Patzer being scum, probably werewolf, and I'm not the only one with this feeling. It's logical that the aliens would have the same opinion.

All that said, it's also possible that the choice of forced vote target is at all relevant: it could have been a random choice, just to muddy the waters and keep town foundering about chasing their own tails.
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Re: Smalltown Werewolf PYP - D2: B is for Blood

Postby Sabrar » Mon Nov 30, 2015 5:06 pm UTC

@RoadieRich: I find your analysis very misleading as it focuses on irrelevant details or misrepresents actual facts. Let's me show you the parts where you're completely wrong or just 'muddying the waters' as you said:

RoadieRich wrote:Even if Opus wasn't protecting P, and P is in fact alien, the argument could also be made that they were distancing themselves.

If crucialityfactor AND patzer are both aliens then they absolutely can't risk Opus_723 diving because in that case patzer would have been lynched, with one of the deciding votes coming from crucialityfactor himself. I don't think that they would run this kind of distancing on D1.
Final votals on D1:
Opus_723 (6): Sungura, Znirk, mpolo, Van, patzer, Djehutynakht
patzer (4): Lawrencelot, jimbobmacdoodle, crucialityfactor, SirGabriel
freezeblade (3): moody7277, Vytron, Sabrar
4 other people with 1 vote each

RoadieRich wrote:CF's vote is pretty much irrelevant, the last lynch happened with 6 votes.

See above, crucialityfactor was NOT voting for Opus_723, he was voting for patzer.

RoadieRich wrote:To a lesser extent, the aliens also want scum dead: less kills mean less chance of aliens dying before D6.

Aliens did not have a realistic chance on D1 of eliminating at least 5 Werewolves before they are all killed, given the number advantage and additional NK that the wolves have. Even if just 1 wolf survives, the NK is still out there.


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