SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

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mike-l
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Thu Mar 12, 2015 11:15 pm UTC

So everyone is on board with 2NL. Vytron wants unspecified targets, Asmodieus wants a single target. The rest of us are flexible.

Just to get things going, I'll put a vote in for up/down as it has (slightly) the best odds.

Asmodieus you're right that if scum reports differently in that case the outcome is different, but if they have to claim first, there are also outcomes where the opposite response fingers them as well. This is why we should insist that the scumiest players claim first.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Madge » Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:14 am UTC

I like Vytron's targeting scheme, if I had to choose (we all target a person we think is unlikely to be NKd). It is likely to give us the most information and also likely to have results going onto the same person. Plus it fucks with scum a bit, too.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Vytron » Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:30 am UTC

Yes, the problem with Up/Down is scum knows who'll target who, what results they'll get, and what they have to claim, no matter the order of claims, so I agree with Madge. She's been very non-committal though, and refuses to make a choice even this late in the day, so she'll sit as second scummiest.

Is everyone fine with me hammering No Lynch?

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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Fri Mar 13, 2015 1:45 am UTC

Fine I'll give a third vote for "pick a person you don't think will be NKd" (or use random.org, there's no way to tell the difference). I have no objections to hammering.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Madge » Fri Mar 13, 2015 2:38 am UTC

Me being indecisive is a town tell but whatever!

I am also cool with it being hammered so let's go:

vote: no-lynch

Try calling me indecisive now, guys!
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Asmodieus » Fri Mar 13, 2015 3:01 am UTC

Picking a person who you don't think will be NKd is a good option assuming most of us choose the same person.

There are 5 of us in the game

4 town, 1 scum

The 4 of us pick someone they think wont get killed to investigate and the scum lies. If we're lucky, all 4 of us pick the same person as the person who won't get NKd to investigate and they don't die.

More likely than not though the investigations are going to be split between a few different people and that means that the results we get on D2 won't really be useful until we cross reference them on D3 right?

Mafia could make a mistake and call the wrong alignment if they claim they investigated someone who was investigated by 2 other people. If 3 people investigate the same person and they all come up town or scum, then someone is lying. But they also have the chance of calling the right alignment or of simply saying they investigated someone else.

There's also always the chance of someone who a couple people think won't be NKd getting NKd.

How would you calculate the odds for victory on Vytrons strategy?
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Vytron » Fri Mar 13, 2015 4:17 am UTC

I think it's impossible to build a program that predicts outcomes when you get in the human element:

Suppose that program existed.

Scum could have it. With it, they know what towns are going to target, so they know what they have to say to appear town and to win the game.

But that would be in the program too, so town would have it, and then they know who they have to target so that scum is forced to lie and we know it.

There's a contradiction because that was already in scum's program.

Random.org also has this, but it's more likely that we choose the same person and that person isn't killed if we try to guess, so I think picking in some manner trying to outguess scum is strictly better than random.org.

(Note: No Lynch has been hammered, I don't know if it's right to keep talking, but there you have it)

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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby SDK » Fri Mar 13, 2015 5:55 am UTC

And that's a No Lynch!

Night will last for 48 hours. Please get your actions in before that time.




No Lynch (3): mike-l, wam, Madge
Asmodieus (1): Vytron

Not voting: Asmodieus
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - Day 2

Postby SDK » Fri Mar 13, 2015 5:28 pm UTC

Or maybe we'll just start things early.

The day before you agreed to rely on your investigations to settle this. None are killed, and you return to your computers to access the police network and do some sleuthing. After uncovering some interesting facts, you all rush back to meet, excited to share the news. When you get there though, you see that one of you got there early. Or maybe he never left. Hard to say when he's lying in a pool of his own blood.


wam has been killed. He was a Town Cop.

It is now Day 2. With 4 alive, it's 3 to No Lynch. :wink:
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Fri Mar 13, 2015 5:38 pm UTC

Alright I had agreed to claim first, I got a reault of Town on Asmodieus.

Theres no reason not to NL today, we just need to see if the results clear anyone and agree to a strategy for N2 targets (I don't see a reason not to use the same one, though obviously investigate someone you didn't the first time)

In response to Asmodieus' question, the odds are the same as the random scenario, as scum can target randomly and get at least those results.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Fri Mar 13, 2015 5:40 pm UTC

I'd actually like Asmodieus to claim second, Thoughts?
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Asmodieus » Fri Mar 13, 2015 5:46 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:I think it's impossible to build a program that predicts outcomes when you get in the human element:

Suppose that program existed.

Scum could have it. With it, they know what towns are going to target, so they know what they have to say to appear town and to win the game.

But that would be in the program too, so town would have it, and then they know who they have to target so that scum is forced to lie and we know it.

There's a contradiction because that was already in scum's program.

Random.org also has this, but it's more likely that we choose the same person and that person isn't killed if we try to guess, so I think picking in some manner trying to outguess scum is strictly better than random.org.

(Note: No Lynch has been hammered, I don't know if it's right to keep talking, but there you have it)


Well, I was just thinking about all the possible permutations of investigations under the assumption that people investigate someone they don't think will be NKd. Everyone picks someone different, or 2 people pick player A and so forth. And if the odds of getting useful information N1 are as good as the other options.

On that note, I investigated Vytron and got town.

@mike-l: I'm still a bit unclear on your explanation.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:01 pm UTC

Basically Vytrons argument, except from scum point of view. Either town or scum using random.org makes each person town have a 25% chance of investigating the NK target, and that's really the only thing that effects anything (and it doesn't even effect much). So town can do at least as well as random (by playing randomly) and so can mafia (by playing randomly). So if each plays correctly it must be the same as random.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:04 pm UTC

Alright so we have:
Mike: Asmodieus Town
Asmodieus: Vytron Town
wam: Dead

I'm indifferent on the remaining claim order, though Madge and I had both previously put Vytron ahead of her.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Asmodieus » Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:30 pm UTC

Personally, I see Madge as more scummy than Vytron. That hammering without warning might have just been a joke but I felt like we could have benefited from a bit more discussion D1.

Vytron is at least moving the discussion forward.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:07 pm UTC

Let's have Madge claim first then. If Asmo or I are scum, it doesn't matter what the remaining claim order is, if Vytron or Madge is then 2/3 town are on board with her claiming first. (Assuming from Asmodieus' post that he wants Madge to claim first)
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Madge » Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:16 pm UTC

Sure, I'll claim first!

I investigated Asmodeus and got mafia!
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:21 pm UTC

Alright. One more and we can see if anyone is ruled out.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:27 pm UTC

A question, if we see that someone is confirmed town by the results, should we hold off on stating so? On one hand it helps mafia pick their N2 target, on the other hand it helps town pick their target as well.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Madge » Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:54 pm UTC

I'm planning on not saying so. It only helps mafia; we're NLing tonight anyway, so there's not even the case of "it turns out Madge is confirmed town and everyone wants to lynch her so I better step in and save her by showing my logic puzzle squares".
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Fri Mar 13, 2015 11:04 pm UTC

My gut is that that is best. Though it's possible that, say, one person is confirmed town, and we all don't target that person. Then mafia either leaves a confirmed town alive or doesn't kill any of our investigation targets. I'm not at all sure that the latter is advantageous though. I'll run some different strategies and see.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Vytron » Sat Mar 14, 2015 6:56 am UTC

Okay, I also investigated Asmodieus and got Mafia.

I think this worked better than random, considering Asm was the most suspicious player (about to be lynched!) if he's scum he wasn't able to kill himself, ensuring that we'd investigate him.

So I now think the best strategy for D1 would have been to investigate whoever you think it's scummiest, because if everyone is right you get the most info.

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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Madge » Sat Mar 14, 2015 8:27 am UTC

I think tonight we should investigate up/down so at least one of us will have their result on a dead person. I feel like this will help us.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Asmodieus » Sat Mar 14, 2015 12:11 pm UTC

@Vytron: You only consider me the scummiest player because I was gone for a couple of days. How was I supposed to know that a big discussion was happening? In the same time frame the cobalts and rubies game didn't move much.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Vytron » Sat Mar 14, 2015 1:13 pm UTC

That's what you say. You could be lying.

As I said before, if we're going to lose then I'd rather lose my way. Mike has done an stupendous job convincing me that he's town, so I wouldn't mind losing against him if he's scum.

If he dies tonight then I'd rather lose against Madge, which claims I've been misreading her the entire time, which is possible (see, I don't have an argument against my reads being backwards) than against you that let us talk for so long D1 (could have been because of your project or could have been hoping that we decided to mislynch a townie - I have no way to know.)

But, my consideration of considering someone confirmed town only applied to wam yesterday (and see, I was right), I'll make my decision tomorrow depending on claims by then, if I wake up alive.

Note: By my claims yesterday mike would have gotten a won game by agreeing to lynch you or Madge if he was scum, there's no wine here because winning after I agree to vote with him against whoever is not worse than what is happening now. This confirms him as town from my POV. This is what confirmed Wam as town yesterday (had he been scum he'd have voted with mike to lynch me), so now I'm going to claim immortality because similar thought processes make it clear who's scum tomorrow if I wake up dead, and I think scum's only chance is to make me suspect that mike is scum after not being killed tonight, so I expect whoever isn't scum from you and Madge to wake up dead tomorrow.

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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Sat Mar 14, 2015 1:45 pm UTC

Ill look through the possibilities, but I think we should probably investigate the scumiest player we haven't. If Asmo is scum it shouldnt matter who we investigate. If he's town then we want to avoid hitting another town.

I don't think this is good strategy, but
can we investigate ourselves?
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Asmodieus » Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:47 pm UTC

So your logic for me being scum is "I dont know, so you might be lying." Using that logic, we're back to square one and everyone is equally as scummy since we don't really know.

Also, if I was waiting for you guys to mislynch a townie and I really was watching the game, why wouldn't I just band wagon you and kill you?
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Vytron » Sat Mar 14, 2015 3:58 pm UTC

Well, right now you seem overly defensive, as if you were preparing to convince us that you're town and not be lynched by the last day.

Staying inactive hoping that other players mislynch each other includes not being there doing the job, since, what you want is people suspecting each other for having mislynched each other, after the fact, so you'd want to look townie by going with No Lynch.

You'd not want to kill me since you'd have hopes that in an ending you+me+mike, mike votes with you against me in the same way that he voted against me Day 1.

Also, I find a list with players from towniest to scummiest to be protown, can you produce such a list? I'd like to see if your list makes sense from the POV I'd expect you to have.

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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Asmodieus » Sat Mar 14, 2015 4:05 pm UTC

You're making an extrapolation from an assumption you admit is baseless and I'm the one who's being overly defensive?

Scummiest from least to greatest: Vytron -> Madge -> mike-l
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Asmodieus » Sat Mar 14, 2015 4:20 pm UTC

I'm neutral on Madge now, it's hard to get a read. But Vytron is looking quite scummy in my opinion.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Sat Mar 14, 2015 4:55 pm UTC

Asmodieus wrote:You're making an extrapolation from an assumption you admit is baseless and I'm the one who's being overly defensive?

Scummiest from least to greatest: Vytron -> Madge -> mike-l

Do you mean greatest to least?

Anyway. Here's where we are high level.

There are 17 possible arrangements, distributed 5/4/4/4 in terms of who's scum, so not much can be read from that (intentionally not saying who is the 5, though it's not hard to figure out and I don't really think it's useful). We have 16 possible targeting methods assuming we can't self target. For each of those, scum can kill 3 people and claim 2 results, for 17*16*3*2 = 1632 possible ways to go from here.

Asmo and Vytron must decide between me and Madge, Madge and I must decide between Vytron and the other. I believe at this time that me and madge targeting Vytron and Vytron and Asmo targeting one of each of us is the best strategy, regardless of what Mafia does, but I need to work through the details to confirm. If it's actually best, independent of mafia action, then I will post details in full, because you shouldn't take my word for it.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Sat Mar 14, 2015 5:26 pm UTC

Nevermind, definitely not independent of mafia strategy. Guess I need to write some code, was hoping to avoid that.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Asmodieus » Sat Mar 14, 2015 5:27 pm UTC

mike-l wrote:Do you mean greatest to least?


Yeah, I got it backwards.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Sat Mar 14, 2015 5:40 pm UTC

Also only 16 possibilities and it's 4/4/4/4, drats I can't do anything right today. At least that means there's only 1536 cases to consider.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby wam » Sat Mar 14, 2015 10:03 pm UTC

Bah you got me
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Vytron » Sun Mar 15, 2015 2:14 am UTC

Note that if Madge is mafia we have lost (she kills mike, Asm votes with her against me) so I'd like to play in a scenario that avoids that if possible.

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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Madge » Sun Mar 15, 2015 11:16 pm UTC

So, what targeting strategy are we going with?

IIRC here's what we have:
- Go up/down (Madge)
- Investigate the scummiest player we haven't (mike)

My logic in going up/down is because it guarantees us a result on a dead player, which is great to calibrate someone as being either, say, sane or naive, with certainty.

Actually I just wrote in here an example to indicate why I liked my up/down strategy but it made scum's strategy from this point pretty clear and I don't want to elucidate it for them.

I still think up/down is a good idea because it gives us results on (almost) everyone.

BTW I think mike still being alive is enough to make him as suspicious as anyone else, rather than leaning-townie, so I don't like people like Vytron being so certain about him. Have you never had yourself wrapped around scum's little finger, Vytron?

(I'm not feeling well the past few days BTW so please excuse any weirdness)
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Vytron » Mon Mar 16, 2015 5:42 am UTC

Madge wrote:Actually I just wrote in here an example to indicate why I liked my up/down strategy but it made scum's strategy from this point pretty clear and I don't want to elucidate it for them.


That doesn't matter, we should assume the worst case, and in it scum plays the best strategy even if you don't help them figure it out.

Madge wrote:BTW I think mike still being alive is enough to make him as suspicious as anyone else, rather than leaning-townie


Wine: that's a reason for scum to not kill him.

Madge wrote:, so I don't like people like Vytron being so certain about him. Have you never had yourself wrapped around scum's little finger, Vytron?


As I've said, I'd rather lose because the scum player did their best to appear townie and convinced me, they'd had earned their win, than lose despite scum players not doing a good job at it (they'd win without having earned it.)

I think that scum!you and scum!Asm haven't earned your win as scum, and deserve to lose if you mislynch me as town.

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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 16, 2015 5:57 am UTC

I'm happy to assume the worst case, but no point in telling scum the strategy I think they'd be best off following. That only guarantees they're using the best strategy*, rather than it merely being a risk.

You're not really saying that I should be posting any strategy ideas I think of for scum, are you?

And yep, absolutely aware mike-l being alive is wine. But it's called wine for a reason; it could shake out either way. Hence saying why mike-l is "just as suspicious as anyone else" because he's alive. Not that I think he's scummy and we may as well lynch him at MYLO because that's how sure I am. :roll:

Anyway, do you have an opinion about a targeting strategy?

* this is of course assuming my random thought I had this morning about what scum should do in the up/down situation (which I've now forgotten, for the record) is the best strategy, which I would be suspicious of
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Mon Mar 16, 2015 6:35 am UTC

I'm not too concerned with stuff like "mike being alive is suspicious" right now, we can get into it if I'm alive tomorrow and not cleared by results.

I haven't run anything new yet as I had a busy weekend. But a few thoughts. A strict "target the person above you" is impossible, for any order you put on our names (unless wam is targetable but I assume he's not) Vytron and Asmo must target Madge and me, so we'd both have to target Vytron and Asmo. But we both already targeted Asmo, a contradiction. So no matter how it happens, at least two people will target the same person. So my suggestion - me and Madge targeting Vytron and Vytron and Asmodieus targeting me and Madge - is as close to up/down as we can get (though in no way unique in that)
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