SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

For your simulated organized crime needs.

Moderators: jestingrabbit, Moderators General, Prelates

User avatar
Vytron
Posts: 432
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Vytron » Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:10 pm UTC

Okay, let's see if there's enough demand to hold 2 games of this kind at once!

SDK is modding this game

Dethy is a 5 player open variant of Mafia.

There's 1 mafiosi.

There's 4 cops.

1 Sane Cop: This one is told the truth.
1 Insane Cop: This one is told the truth in reverse.
1 Paranoid Cop: This one is told everyone is mafia.
1 Naive Cop: This one is told everyone is town.

This thread is for players that didn't have the chance to sign up on the other thread. I think I'll leave this 24 hours and if it hasn't filled up it'll be open to everyone (ie right now only people that aren't playing on the other Dethy can sign up, by tomorrow everyone wanting to play in both Dethies can do so)

This one has Madge already signed up

Players:
1. Madge
2. wam
3. mike-l
4. Vytron
5. Asmodieus

Replacements:
1.
2.

Go!
Last edited by Vytron on Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:51 pm UTC, edited 9 times in total.

User avatar
Madge
Posts: 69
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: Vanilla Mafia Dethy 2 (4 players more needed!)

Postby Madge » Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:48 pm UTC

You should have created this at 10pm my time and not put me on the list so that way a second game could have filled up without me! Seriously that would have been hilarious.

But thankyou :'D I am so loved.
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

User avatar
Vytron
Posts: 432
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

Re: Vanilla Mafia Dethy 2 (3 players more needed!)

Postby Vytron » Sun Mar 08, 2015 12:09 am UTC

:)

Anyway, SDK has agreed to mod it so I can play!

Players:
1. Madge
2. Vytron
3.
4.
5.

Replacements:
1.
2.

User avatar
wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: Vanilla Mafia Dethy 2 (3 players more needed!)

Postby wam » Sun Mar 08, 2015 11:16 am UTC

im in
Come join us playing mafia signup here

User avatar
Madge
Posts: 69
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: Vanilla Mafia Dethy 2 (2 players more needed!)

Postby Madge » Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:06 am UTC

Also we should probably change the name of this thread (assuming we get enough players), so that way we can tell the two games apart for spoiler purposes.

May I suggest Chocolate Mafia Dethy or SDK's Mafia Dethy? (probably the latter would be the least ambiguous...)
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

User avatar
Vytron
Posts: 432
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (2 players more needed!)

Postby Vytron » Mon Mar 09, 2015 12:35 am UTC

Well, previous Dethy games ran on the forum were called "X Runs Dethy", where X is the mod's name, so that'll probably work :)

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (2 players more needed!)

Postby mike-l » Mon Mar 09, 2015 3:20 am UTC

I'll play.
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

User avatar
SDK
Posts: 703
Joined: Thu May 22, 2014 7:40 pm UTC
Location: Canada

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (1 player more needed!)

Postby SDK » Mon Mar 09, 2015 2:44 pm UTC

Hello! I'm your friendly neighbourhood mod for this game! Two questions for the players (if you don't give an opinion, I'll just assume you don't care).

1) How tight would you like me to be with deadlines? I'm inclined to let Day's flow naturally, so don't like short deadlines. I'd typically aim for a week per day at least, but am perfectly willing to adjust this based on the wants of the players.

2) What do you want to have happen if deadline is hit? I personally like to see the Day come to a natural conclusion, where nothing is forced because of the deadline. In a game like this (where no lynching is apparently a strategy), it might not matter so much, but all games I've modded previously have had a no lynch at deadline rather than resulting in the lynch of whatever wagon was leading at the time. This forces the players to come to a majority if they want to lynch anyone. How would you feel about that?
The biggest number (63 quintillion googols in debt)

User avatar
Vytron
Posts: 432
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (1 player more needed!)

Postby Vytron » Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:14 pm UTC

My preferences:

1) Apply deadlines when the game seems to stagnate (i.e. if we get a 2 weeks Day 1 full of activity and furious discussion then that's fine, but a 48 hours day with very few posting is fine too)

2) If votes aren't tied majority decides at deadline. Otherwise, if there's a tie, leave 24 hours for someone to decide it (i.e. the 24 hours are cut short if someone votes or unvotes to break the tie), otherwise, either No Lynch at the end of those 24 hours, or whoever was in the lead before there was a tie is lynched (unless No Lynch was in the lead, then No Lynch happens) is fine with me.

User avatar
Asmodieus
Posts: 188
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 5:16 pm UTC
Location: Ardis
Contact:

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (1 player more needed!)

Postby Asmodieus » Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:42 pm UTC

Players:
1. Madge
2. wam
3. mike-l
4. Vytron
5. Asmodieus
Tillian wrote:Yeah, but the polar bears get more territorial during the summer, so we have to stay indoors.

User avatar
wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (1 player more needed!)

Postby wam » Mon Mar 09, 2015 5:55 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:My preferences:

1) Apply deadlines when the game seems to stagnate (i.e. if we get a 2 weeks Day 1 full of activity and furious discussion then that's fine, but a 48 hours day with very few posting is fine too)

2) If votes aren't tied majority decides at deadline. Otherwise, if there's a tie, leave 24 hours for someone to decide it (i.e. the 24 hours are cut short if someone votes or unvotes to break the tie), otherwise, either No Lynch at the end of those 24 hours, or whoever was in the lead before there was a tie is lynched (unless No Lynch was in the lead, then No Lynch happens) is fine with me.


These are my preferences as well
Come join us playing mafia signup here

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby mike-l » Mon Mar 09, 2015 6:03 pm UTC

I'm indifferent on deadline policy, as long as it's clear.
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby mike-l » Mon Mar 09, 2015 6:14 pm UTC

I notice the other game doesn't have a cop head start, will that be the same here? I think the head start game is pretty balanced, so a non head start game, with all else equal, will probably favor scum fairly strongly.
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

User avatar
SDK
Posts: 703
Joined: Thu May 22, 2014 7:40 pm UTC
Location: Canada

SDK Runs Dethy - Day 1

Postby SDK » Mon Mar 09, 2015 6:17 pm UTC

You're all cops. You're all crooked. Well, all except one.

Things were going so well for your little cabal of officers. For the last couple years you've been living the high life, raking in the cash from drug dealers and honest businesses both. It's what this city owes you for keeping it safe, right? Everything was going your way, ready for an early retirement with full government pension, you were all set to have it made - right up until one of you apparently developed a conscience and ratted to the chief.

You don't know who it was who agreed to be a witness in the upcoming IA investigation, but you know it was one of you five. You also managed to get the IP address of the offender with a well-placed threat to the tech support nerds down at the office. That didn't help you figure out who did it, but you were able to lock them out of the police network. No more investigations for them might make this pretty easy... Problem is, the trial's in just three days, so you'd better make it snappy.




Welcome to SDK Runs Dethy. This is an open setup for 5 players with one mafia member. The remaining four players are cops of questionable sanity.

1 Sane Cop: This cop is told the true alignment of their target.
1 Insane Cop: This cop is told the opposite alignment of their target.
1 Paranoid Cop: This cop is told everyone is mafia.
1 Naive Cop: This cop is told everyone is town.

Role PM's
Spoiler:
[Player], you are a Town Cop.

Each Night you may send me the name of another player. You will be told whether that person is Town or Mafia.

You win when that backstabbing goody two-shoes mafia member is dead.

[Player], you are Mafia.

Each Night you may send me the name of another player. That player will be killed.

You win when those crooked evil town players are all dead (or nothing can prevent this).


Player List
1. Madge
2. wam
3. mike-l
4. Vytron
5. Asmodieus

Role PM's have been sent. Please let me know if you did not receive yours.

It is now Day 1. With 5 alive, it's 3 votes to lynch. There is currently no deadline, but one may be implemented if activity slows.
The biggest number (63 quintillion googols in debt)

User avatar
SDK
Posts: 703
Joined: Thu May 22, 2014 7:40 pm UTC
Location: Canada

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby SDK » Mon Mar 09, 2015 6:19 pm UTC

mike-l wrote:I notice the other game doesn't have a cop head start, will that be the same here? I think the head start game is pretty balanced, so a non head start game, with all else equal, will probably favor scum fairly strongly.

I don't think that's true. A 4 town, 1 scum vanilla game is fairly well balanced with nothing else going on. I think it's fairly well known that the Night 0 headstart favours town quite strongly (at least, according to mafiascum), so I feel like no headstart is the way to go, even if it does end up favouring mafia slightly.

In any case, the short answer is that this game does mirror Vytron's. There is no headstart.
The biggest number (63 quintillion googols in debt)

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby mike-l » Mon Mar 09, 2015 6:37 pm UTC

PM received


Alright well without a head start my feeling is that we should treat this as a vanilla 4-1 setup and maybe we get lucky on results.

A no lynch approach only gives a total of 5 results (3 after day 1, 2 after day 2 at which point we must lynch). There's a 1/6 chance of completely useless info at that point, but even in the other 5/6 of the time, figuring out the useful info may not be possible... Unless...

Are sanities revealed on death
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

User avatar
wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby wam » Mon Mar 09, 2015 6:41 pm UTC

Apologie if I am a bit rusty been a while since I last played a game.

Off the top of my head, in a dethy 2 NL and hopefully by then you have enough information to make it easy.

From memory there are two different strategys, everyone investigates someone different or everyone investigates the same person. My preferred is that we all agree whos the "towniest" an inbestgate them. Logic being if we pick the towniest person scum can't Nk them without giving the rest of town a whole heap of info on their sanity.

Thoughts?
Come join us playing mafia signup here

User avatar
wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby wam » Mon Mar 09, 2015 6:43 pm UTC

@mike I am fairly certain theyre not.

You can work out more information but th moredetail I give here the more it helps scum.
Come join us playing mafia signup here

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby mike-l » Mon Mar 09, 2015 6:57 pm UTC

Yeah, crunching numbers quickly gives 7/15 town wins just lynching randomly in a 4-1 setup, so not nearly as imbalanced as I expected. On the other hand, mafia has a strategy to guarantee no useful results from investigations of we lynch day 1.

Pedit: yeah I assume sanities are not revealed, but it definitely affects strategy so I figured I'd ask. As for NL I'm willing to be convinced, but you'll need to show me that 2 NL without a head start is at least 7/15 to win.
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

User avatar
Asmodieus
Posts: 188
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 5:16 pm UTC
Location: Ardis
Contact:

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby Asmodieus » Mon Mar 09, 2015 7:00 pm UTC

wam wrote:Apologie if I am a bit rusty been a while since I last played a game.

Off the top of my head, in a dethy 2 NL and hopefully by then you have enough information to make it easy.

From memory there are two different strategys, everyone investigates someone different or everyone investigates the same person. My preferred is that we all agree whos the "towniest" an inbestgate them. Logic being if we pick the towniest person scum can't Nk them without giving the rest of town a whole heap of info on their sanity.

Thoughts?


If the mafia NKs the person who everyone investigated, the town gets info on that persons sanity assuming sanity is revealed upon death?

Im not sure I understand why investigating the towniest person is the best approach.
Tillian wrote:Yeah, but the polar bears get more territorial during the summer, so we have to stay indoors.

User avatar
SDK
Posts: 703
Joined: Thu May 22, 2014 7:40 pm UTC
Location: Canada

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby SDK » Mon Mar 09, 2015 7:21 pm UTC

mike-l wrote:Are sanities revealed on death

No.
The biggest number (63 quintillion googols in debt)

User avatar
wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby wam » Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:03 pm UTC

@ Asmodieus

Lets run an example numbers

5 players A-E with E being scum

B-D investigate A and get a result.

E.G B gets town, then A dies and comes up town B knows they are either sane or naive.

So it halves the possibilities for each town player.

@ Mike, probabilities are not my speciality but here is my best case and worst case.

A-E with the roles below

A Sane
B Insane
C Naive
D Paranoid
E Scum

Worst Case
N1 all investigate A apart from A who invesitages B. Scum kills B

D2 Results
A Cop
C Cop
D Scum
E Scum (made up)

D3 LYLO all investigate E, scum kills A

C Cop
D Scum
E Cop (made up)

Lynching randomly thats a 5/15 choice. So worse.

Best Case
N1 all investigate C apart from A who invesitages B. Scum kills D

D2 Results
A Cop
B Scum
C Cop
E Scum (made up)

N2 all investigate E, scum kills C
LYLO
A Scum
B Cop
E Cop (made up)

A and B know their sanities and they both know that E must be scum. Game over town win.

Just my opinion!
Come join us playing mafia signup here

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby mike-l » Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:20 pm UTC

The game is simple enough I think I can write a little bit of code and just simulate a few thousand/million games and get a good sense of the 2 NL odds. The benchmark is probably around 1:1, as we can do 7:8 with random.org and surely we can scum hunt better than random.

In the mean time, we might as well start scum hunting. Even if we go with NL, there's still a decent chance we'll need to make a decision on day 3, no harm in looking early.

Asmodieus I've never played with you. What's your mafia background?
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

User avatar
Asmodieus
Posts: 188
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 5:16 pm UTC
Location: Ardis
Contact:

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby Asmodieus » Mon Mar 09, 2015 8:44 pm UTC

I've played sporadically on this forum over the years.

Very sporadically.
Tillian wrote:Yeah, but the polar bears get more territorial during the summer, so we have to stay indoors.

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby mike-l » Mon Mar 09, 2015 10:41 pm UTC

So here's a fun fact. With correct play 2NL with single targets (ie everyone targets the same person) has virtually identical odds as 4-1 vanilla.

The only case where we can get over 1/2 sure is if we manage to hit a mafia (2/5 to 3/5 chance depending on mafia strategy) AND mafia does not hit either the insane or sane cop (1/6) chance, giving a 6 2/3-10% chance at guaranteed victory. The remaining 90-93 1/3% is either at 1/2 or 1/3. Mafia has a strategy that guarantees 1/3 will occur 1/3 of the time, making the best possible odds into:

10% + 54% * 1/2 + 27% * 1/3 = 46%

So only 2/3 of a percent worse than 4-1 vanilla. Now these are odds that don't take into account scum hunting at all. Once you do that I think playing vanilla wins out because there's votes and inevitably more discussion.

What happens when there are multiple targets is somewhat more complicated, and I need to teach my program more logic to decide what the end game odds of each situation are.
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby mike-l » Tue Mar 10, 2015 12:15 am UTC

Well either my program is horribly wrong or my logic above is, as now I get a 77% chance to win using the method I just claimed was 46%.... that's a big difference. Investigating.
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

User avatar
Vytron
Posts: 432
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

Re: SDK Runs Dethy (Ready to start!)

Postby Vytron » Tue Mar 10, 2015 12:55 am UTC

Okay here, I was wondering how out outcomes look like if we play as if one of us was confirmed town.

The idea behind this is that, if we consider someone already confirmed town there's some strategy and the game follows that, wouldn't town have the edge if the game started with the same setup but we were told "...and X player is town"?

Because, there's 80% chance that playing like that makes it actually true. We start with one assumed extra bit of information, and, anyway, I'd not mind losing because we picked the only scum player as confirmed townie for our strategy (we'd certainly deserve to lose in that case.)

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:20 am UTC

The downside would either exactly balance out the upside (if we allow ourselves to admit we were wrong) or outweigh it (if we don't).
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

User avatar
Madge
Posts: 69
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Madge » Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:29 am UTC

I'm conservative so I like the 2NL strategy, but at the same time if simulations show that lynching is a better idea then I can be convinced quite easily.

The thing is, if we lynch today, tomorrow there's a chance both of our useful cops are dead, and then we're really in trouble!

I haven't done any reading into dethy strategy yet, but I plan to have a peek at some wikis later on.
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:43 am UTC

If we lynch today, cop results are pretty much useless no matter who dies, sane, insane or otherwise. Lynching today may well be the best strategy, but it really is just a vanilla 4-1 at that point.

Completely refactoring my program right now, there was indeed a major error in it.

For those who care about the math/programming
Spoiler:
My script iterates over all 120 possible game setups, and then assumes, for each setup, that we all target the first player, followed by the second, and that mafia kills in a random but predetermined fashion. It then compares all 120 games and groups them based on having identical results, and then checks for each group of results how many different places scum could be in. 1 place = 100% win, 2 places = 50% win, all 3 places = 33% win. Problem is with the mafia behaviour. While it doesn't make a difference in terms of odds whether mafia kills player 3 or player 4, I ignore the possibility that they could have done either when grouping the outcomes. Since the mafia behaviour was deterministic, it ended up with a lot of scenarios where it was 100% when it shouldn't have been, eg if player 5 died, it always meant that player 3 was mafia.

In any case, what I need to do to cover other strategies also deals with this issue, but requires a fair bit of refactoring.
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

User avatar
Vytron
Posts: 432
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Vytron » Tue Mar 10, 2015 5:23 am UTC

Well, I think mike's town, I think that he'd have kept the major error secret to lead us astray.

So if there's 2 town on {Madge, Asmodieus, wam}, does it help anything?

User avatar
wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby wam » Tue Mar 10, 2015 7:46 pm UTC

My view is simple, either way we probably end up in a 2v1 LYLO, assuming we don't end up lycnching scum day1.

2 NL gives us more information when we get to 2v1.

Initial thoughts going on are

Mike town agree with vytron

Madge seems to be hedgein a lot which makes her slightly suspicous in my mind.
Come join us playing mafia signup here

User avatar
wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby wam » Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:02 pm UTC

Also just a heads up I may have cocked up, I am moving house end of the week and thoguht I would have internet pretty quickly but its looking more like two weeks. I should be able to keep playing with phone and during my lunch break I will keep you guys in the loop.
Come join us playing mafia signup here

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:39 pm UTC

wam wrote:My view is simple, either way we probably end up in a 2v1 LYLO, assuming we don't end up lycnching scum day1.

2 NL gives us more information when we get to 2v1.


Well the first part is certainly true, I still challenge the second part. There's a good chance that 2 days of investigation reveals no useful information. Going with a D1 lynch gives information based on voting, discussion leading up to said voting, and most importantly, the chance of winning D1. 2NL guarantees 2 dead town, D1 lynch could hit mafia.

My program is almost done, it's confirmed that 2NL with a single investigation target is less likely to win than picking randomly and lynching twice (agreeing almost exactly with my previous argument for 46%) I haven't been home all day but I should be able to run the two multi target strategies (random and up/down)

In the meantime, there's no harm in scum hunting. Id like to see more posts from Madge and Asmodieus (love that name btw). I don't like this talk of "let's assume someone is town", but I don't find it particularly scummy. If I was forced to vote right now it'd probably be for Madge, but I'd really like to see quite a bit more discussion. To each of you, if you were the mafia, and we lynched someone else right now, who would you kill tonight? I'd kill wam. He seems the most engaged in the game and I'd rather not have to be up against him in a final 3 if I was the scum.
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

User avatar
Vytron
Posts: 432
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Vytron » Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:33 pm UTC

If I was mafia, I'd kill mike tonight.

My highest suspicions right now are Madge and Asmodieus. Madge usually is more active in games where she's town, and her post made her sound a bit unnatural. Asmodieus seems the classic scum player that pretty much stays quiet and waits for other players to suspect each other.

Vote: Asmodieus

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Tue Mar 10, 2015 11:52 pm UTC

On a meta note I worry that I'll always be killed n1 as town :) (but as long as DJ does a lying town gambit we'll still win).

Back to the game, the nice thing about my code is that it can quickly analyze what actually happens and spit out all possible setups (to be verified by others of course) which will be useful if we decide to go with 2NL, (or if we lynch there is a slim chance that the results clear one person, making it 50/50, which the code will also tell us instantly). Doing work upfront to be lazy later :)

Vytron why would you kill me? (Guess I should have included "and why" in my initial question)
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

User avatar
Vytron
Posts: 432
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Vytron » Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:03 am UTC

If you're town I don't see anybody lynching you soon. As scum I'd try to get rid of the players that people aren't going to lynch. Conversely, suppose everyone is suspicious of wam and say "hmmm, I think it's best to lynch wam D2", then it doesn't make sense to lynch wam as that just makes it more likely that oneself is lynched.

So I propose the final end-it-all strategy:

Lynch me now or consider me confirmed town.

I successfully got this strategy to work in another game, and in that one I was the only cop.

The idea is that, if it comes to an endgame where you have to decide to lynching me or lynching scum, we'd lose anyway, so it's better to just lynch me already.

Otherwise, consider me confirmed town and never lynch me. I'm willing to do the same for mike, so we can now play as if there were two confirmed town.

So mike, how does your program look like if we start with two confirmed town?

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:12 am UTC

I can run that when I get home, but I can tell you it's the same as I said before. If the assumption is right then obviously we win much more often. But if the assumption is allowed to be false (note allowed to be, not necessarily is) we do worse than not making it.

Personally I can say theres no way I'd agree to that strategy. I'm not voting for you right now, but I will absolutely vote for you tomorrow/d3 if I think that's what's most likely to win. The game you are referencing was won despite your actions, not because of them.
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.

User avatar
Madge
Posts: 69
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby Madge » Wed Mar 11, 2015 12:34 am UTC

If I was scum I'd kill mike, since he seems to be helping us the most with his simulations. On a related note I think he's being the towniest.

Also, FoS on who says I'm more active in games as town. That's not true. I think it was SDK who analysed my meta recently and found out that I tended to be more active as scum than as town.

I don't think mafia will kill wam particularly because wam will likely have activity issues. So when Mike is saying they'd kill wam as mafia is either not thinking it through or not being honest. TBH if I was mafia!mike I'd kill someone like myself who is under suspicion, so it makes more sense that mike himself wasn't killed. The biggest problem with being a townie mafioso is that you have to justify why you're not dead yet! (I remember in smalltown I was constantly concerned with making sure we were killing more "useful" roles than my cop, so that way people wouldn't be suspicious I was still alive).

Vytron's "lynch me now or i'm conftown" is silly. But it's in character silly.

I really think we should go with 2NL because if we do the lynching we end up in a vanilla game and that's just BORING. It's not what a dethy is meant to be you know? But if other people want it I'm happy to do it that way.
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

mike-l
Posts: 2758
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:16 am UTC

Re: SDK Runs Dethy - D1

Postby mike-l » Wed Mar 11, 2015 1:26 am UTC

Vytron's "lynch me now or i'm conftown" is silly. But it's in character silly.


This sums up my feeling exactly.

Elsewhere, re me killing wam: wam saying he won't be around this weekend doesn't change the fact that he's generally active. Announcing on day 1 that you have a preplanned absense that probably occurs on d1 as well isn't scummy to anyone. I expect that wam/Vytron/me will be most involved, and I'm more confident that I could look townier than Vytron than I could look townier than wam
addams wrote:This forum has some very well educated people typing away in loops with Sourmilk. He is a lucky Sourmilk.


Return to “Mafia”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests