The Year 3000.

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Quantum Sunshine
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The Year 3000.

Postby Quantum Sunshine » Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:43 pm UTC

I searched and could not find an appropriate topic, so if there is one, please redirect me to it.

The future is a big place, filled with wonders and technologies beyond imagination. Things once thought of as 'magic' can now be done by the average child (use a cell phone to talk to someone across the world).

The basics of this topic are to discuss and argue about what you think the future will be like, what technologies we'll have, and where we will be as a species.

Also, please don't think this topic is just for technology/science things like that, it's for everything, from politics to music. Anything, just discuss the future.

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Josephine » Thu Sep 02, 2010 11:33 pm UTC

I'll get this first part out of the way. I'm a strong proponent of a technological singularity in the next half century. AI, nanotech, the whole thing.

I think it's very, very difficult to try and predict more than 100 or so years into the future, taking account the great rate that technology is advancing at (and social change will go along for the ride). But I can try.

I can see us either 1000 light years away or a much larger distance, depending on whether we find a method of FTL travel or not(if there's even the smallest loophole, the smallest crack in the door, the very powerful minds of the future will blast the door wide open). If we're even a primarily physical society, nanotechnology will have long since made it post-scarcity.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby H2SO4 » Thu Sep 02, 2010 11:48 pm UTC

I think America and China will form an alliance, conquer the world, and then start terraforming and colonizing other planets, but due to lack of funds won't be able to send the colonizers with much except things one would find back in the Old West times. Then some people out on the further planets won't like the way the Chinese/American alliance is running things, and so they will try to fight back, but it will turn into a crushing defeat for them. And also the Chinese/American alliance, in an effort to stop wars and aggression altogether, will attempt to develop a drug of some kind to make people peaceful, but it'll have the opposite effect on a tenth of a percent of the population and cause them to turn into crazy savages that every normal human being becomes afraid of. And then people will live pretty much just like normal. Oh, and there will be holographic windows to throw people through.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby mercuryseven » Fri Sep 03, 2010 12:42 am UTC

H2SO4 wrote:I think America and China will form an alliance, conquer the world, and then start terraforming and colonizing other planets, but due to lack of funds won't be able to send the colonizers with much except things one would find back in the Old West times. Then some people out on the further planets won't like the way the Chinese/American alliance is running things, and so they will try to fight back, but it will turn into a crushing defeat for them. And also the Chinese/American alliance, in an effort to stop wars and aggression altogether, will attempt to develop a drug of some kind to make people peaceful, but it'll have the opposite effect on a tenth of a percent of the population and cause them to turn into crazy savages that every normal human being becomes afraid of. And then people will live pretty much just like normal. Oh, and there will be holographic windows to throw people through.


Not to mention the government will perform cruel experiments that screws up the minds of promising young girls...

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Hamorad » Fri Sep 03, 2010 12:47 am UTC

Good news everyone! We've got a package to deliver...

I agree that it's pretty difficult to accurately predict how fast technology will change over a thousand years. Just look at the amazing and drastic advances we've made in 50 years, or even the last decade. I wonder, though, if our advances in technology will begin to plateau at any point or if we will continue to accelerate the rate at which we make new inventions and discoveries.

I think culturally society will be different, but the changes won't be as drastic as they were from 1000 to 2000. We've reached a point where global communication is already a reality and cultures are already beginning to mingle much more freely and a more global, interconnected culture is already starting to emerge. I think we'll see a lot of development there, and a lot of other cultures won't progress individually as much.

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby tastelikecoke » Fri Sep 03, 2010 9:37 am UTC

People would still be using...
- cellphones. Although they will be different.
- flat screens. I doubt 3D wouldn't take over, since flat displays still represent straightforward information than any volumetric display.
- pens. it's still the best way of expression for artistic doodles.
- guitars. futuristic quantum guitars? I doubt it would happen.

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Kang » Fri Sep 03, 2010 10:32 am UTC

Adding to tastelikecoke:
-People, provided they are still around, will still be trying their best to kill off each other, for despite a globalised culture and faint possibility of successful programs of reducing poverty they are certain to find reasons to hate each other. The efficiency at which they kill each other will still be a great gauge for the technological advance.

But besides of that I'm not even comfortable with envisioning 50 years in the future. I don't think there will be a continuous and speedy increase in knowledge and technology. Already many developments are too quick for society to cope with it. If that FTL-loophole that nbonaparte suggested indeed existed I'm certain that within the next 1000 years that will be uncovered and used to our advantage, obviously starting another burst of quick development in every area imaginable, though. Besides of that I think things will eventually plateau a little at a status quo, just like they historically did for sometimes centuries, even though that believe might easily be wrong, considering that at the beginning of the 20th century a lot of people were convinced that 'physics was a finished science and there only remain certain minor points to be resolved'.

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby styrofoam » Fri Sep 03, 2010 1:19 pm UTC

It all depends on whether technological advancement plateaus. If it does, society will crumble and regress, because certain intregal things (like the stock market) rely on continuous growth. The bigger they are, the harder they fall, and this fall might just anihilate all life on earth (can anyone say nuclear war?).
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Josephine » Fri Sep 03, 2010 11:08 pm UTC

Kang wrote:But besides of that I'm not even comfortable with envisioning 50 years in the future. I don't think there will be a continuous and speedy increase in knowledge and technology. Already many developments are too quick for society to cope with it. If that FTL-loophole that nbonaparte suggested indeed existed I'm certain that within the next 1000 years that will be uncovered and used to our advantage, obviously starting another burst of quick development in every area imaginable, though. Besides of that I think things will eventually plateau a little at a status quo, just like they historically did for sometimes centuries, even though that believe might easily be wrong, considering that at the beginning of the 20th century a lot of people were convinced that 'physics was a finished science and there only remain certain minor points to be resolved'.

But it never plateaued. Stories like that guy in a 19th century patent office worrying that everything had been invented already and he wouldn't be needed anymore are few, far between, and not illustrative of how it actually works. An exponential curve looks pretty constant until you hit the knee of the curve. Now, in Europe, there was a significant setback, but progress continued elsewhere, and the renaissance and eventually the enlightenment brought that knowledge back. At no time in our history has the entirety of humanity been set back or held stagnant. People have been saying the same thing for millenia. The only difference now is that people have noticed just how fast we're moving into the future.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Kang » Fri Sep 03, 2010 11:23 pm UTC

Well, I didn't mean to say it plateaued flatly, but you can't deny that history shows times of rather moderate progress followed by triumphant ages of quick evolvement following certain breakthrough discoveries. For example the feudal system had been in place in Europe (and other places) for roughly a thousand years without any major game-changing alterations, whereas the modern era has gone through different social systems at an alarming rate.
In technology similar holds true. Ancient engineers built marvellous systems that enabled them to change the face of Europe and beyond in very short time (think Roman irrigation and roads, as a quick example), followed by a long period of a 'status quo' in which of course those techniques were still be developed, but progress became very slow.
In a closing note: the story about physics being 'finished' at the turn of the century was, as far as I remember one of my professors saying, something a certain Max Planck was told when he asked for advice whether he should study physics or maths (guess that makes it late 19th century and not early 20th century, sorry for the mixup).

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby furyguitar » Sat Sep 04, 2010 2:19 am UTC

tastelikecoke wrote:- guitars. futuristic quantum guitars? I doubt it would happen.

The evolution of musical instruments over the last 1000 years has been staggering.
Consider a sampling of the modern orchestra:
Violin - Invented in the 16th century; originally used strings of animal gut - wire last longer and are louder.
Brass instruments (trumpets, horns) - Valves/keys come into play in the 19th century. Previously, limited use of keys/chromatics based on crooks, valves, and harmonic series.
Clarinet - doesn't really appear until the 18th century. Predecessors go back to the Middle Ages.
The Saxophone becomes a "serious" instrument and is used some orchestral works in the last ~70 years. Previously limited to military bands and big bands.

Keyboards
Organ - Actually goes back to the 3rd century and evolved numerous times in many ways through the 16th century.
Harpsichord - invented late 16th Century. Lasts for about 200 years only to be pushed aside by the piano.
Piano - 17th century clavichord evolves even through the 19th century.
Synthesizer - FIRST appears in 1876 (what?!). Moog introduces first commercially viable model in 1960's.

In the last half-century we've seen the advent of electric guitars/basses, amplifiers, effects pedals, etc. Now there are guitars that tune themselves!

Who knows what kinds of musical innovations will come in the next 200 years, let alone 1000! And I only mentioned innovations in the Western Musical tradition!

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby unus vox » Sat Sep 04, 2010 3:12 am UTC

I want to say so much on this topic. I love dreaming about the future and imagining what will arrive in the next 1000, 100, and even 10 years. It's an awesome (in the original meaning of the word) topic. However, I'm sad to say I'm not entirely sure we'll be around in another millenium. If you consider how much we have accomplished between the middle ages and now, I think by 3000 we will have harnessed such powerful capabilities that they simply will simply (or not-so-simply) be our undoing. The last century has seen more technological innovation than any other period of our history, in my opinion. If we continue at this pace, which seems to be growing at an exponential rate, I shudder to think about how dangerous our innovations could become.

Granted, we can create wonderful, beautiful, miraculous things. We may be able to heal the world as quickly as we destroy it. And yet the cynic in me can't dismiss the idea that there is enough wickedness in the world for one person, at some point, to get his hands on the wrong thing. I'm sorry if I'm derailing this thread or copping out of a real answer... I'm not very well versed in the sciences as it is. But I felt compelled to toss out my pessimistic little notion of us blowing ourselves up. :(
Spoiler:
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby styrofoam » Sat Sep 04, 2010 3:58 am UTC

unus vox wrote:But I felt compelled to toss out my pessimistic little notion of us blowing ourselves up. :(

Regulation sounds really useful right now...
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby unus vox » Sat Sep 04, 2010 4:05 am UTC

styrofoam wrote:
unus vox wrote:But I felt compelled to toss out my pessimistic little notion of us blowing ourselves up. :(

Regulation sounds really useful right now...


Regulation of arms?
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++$_
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby ++$_ » Sat Sep 04, 2010 4:15 am UTC

As far as I'm concerned, what happens depends profoundly on whether we achieve controlled nuclear fusion (with significant energy yield) or not.

If not, my prediction is that we will have a serious shortage of energy that leads to the world 3000 years now not looking too much different from the world of today. Of course, a lot can happen in 1000 years, so I expect that there will be some very important differences. For example, I fully expect there to be machines with general intelligence at the very least approaching that of a human. Culture and society will look very different, for better or for worse, and it's as useless to try and predict how it will be different as it would be for Hildegard von Bingen to try and guess what music would be popular in the year 2000. People will probably, on the whole, have much more enjoyable jobs than they do now. Also, they will still feel totally miserable, and long for the Golden Ages.

But I also fully expect us to be just as attached to the Earth as we are now (although humans will have visited at least Mars and Jupiter, and there might be a handful of permanent residents on the Moon and Mars, I expect the number of such residents to be <1000). The total human population will probably be less than 20 billion -- maybe a lot less, depending on how well we reacted to running out of fossil fuels and on how severe the effects of climate change are on the food supply. People will still have painfully short lives. People will still get sick and suffer. If I ended up in this future world, I'd probably say something like "That's it?? That's all you could do in 1000 years?"

If we do get fusion working fairly soon, we'd probably have serious attempts to colonize Mars (maybe still facing serious challenges, or maybe going smoothly, with a few million people living there already), and have sent someone to another star and back. We won't have colonized any planets outside of the solar system -- yet. We'll have underwater cities, and maybe whole underwater nations. We'll have completely obliterated anything resembling "wilderness", enabling us to increase the population to at least 50 billion, and possibly way more. People will still have painfully short lives, though. And they will still feel totally miserable and long for the Golden Ages. If I ended up in this future world, I'd probably say something like "Eh, not bad. At least you built flying cars. And it's pretty cool that I can live on another planet if I want to. You did a pretty good job... I guess..."

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby supermario » Sat Sep 04, 2010 4:20 am UTC

I think 3000 is wayyyyy too far into the future to predict.

Hopefully humanity will have extended life to its limits in terms of longevity. Biotechnology seems to be one of the hot up-and-coming fields. Perhaps death will be preventable.

Space travel will probably have come a long way, maybe toward colonization of other planets. I can't even imagine what the economic situation will be like.... It's interesting to imagine how people will be "working" if at all in an age of extremely advanced technology. If nanotech works as hypothesized by people like Ray Kurzweil, material goods will become extremely cheap and notions of "scarcity" might be a lot less relevant.

Maybe something like The Matrix will develop except for less nefarious purposes. I wonder how computer networks could be managed in an era in which people communicate from literally worlds away.....

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby TheKrikkitWars » Sat Sep 04, 2010 5:18 am UTC

Not much will change but they'll live underwater
And your great, great, great granddaughter
will turn out to be pretty fine...

:shock:
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby TimelordSimone » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:27 am UTC

TheKrikkitWars wrote:Not much will change but they'll live underwater
And your great, great, great granddaughter
will turn out to be pretty fine...

:shock:


This was going to be my answer.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby TheKrikkitWars » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:36 am UTC

TimelordSimone wrote:
TheKrikkitWars wrote:Not much will change but they'll live underwater
And your great, great, great granddaughter
will turn out to be pretty fine...

:shock:


This was going to be my answer.
God. Damn.

We're clearly both awful people!
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby furyguitar » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:16 pm UTC

I would like to believe that by 3000 we will have put to rest the question of whether life exists in our solar system:
-We will have explored the underground caves of Mars and other areas for evidence of what causes the seasonal methane plumes. (And if it's not life, it's geological, which is also fun because it's thought to be a geologically dead planet!)
-We will have drilled into the surface ice of Jupiter's ice moon, Europa, to find if there is anything living in the ice, as well as having drilled through the ice to the underlying oceans to see what, if anything, lives down there.
-Saturn's ice moon, Enceladus, for the same reasons as Europa.
-Saturn's moon, Titan, which is probably the least likely of the four, because I think (and some bio person can correct me on this if I'm wrong) organic matter does not function or dissolve as well in liquid methane as it does in water, which is (as far as we know) necessary to life.

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby LongLiveTheDutch » Sat Sep 04, 2010 7:17 pm UTC

I read this on my iGoogle quote of the day thing today. It is strangely relevant.

Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps weigh 1.5 tons.
- unknown


I put forth that the computers of the year 3000 may only contain one or two vacuum tubes and weigh perhaps 200 pounds.

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby PhoenixEnigma » Sat Sep 04, 2010 8:30 pm UTC

LongLiveTheDutch wrote:I read this on my iGoogle quote of the day thing today. It is strangely relevant.

Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps weigh 1.5 tons.
- unknown
I put forth that the computers of the year 3000 may only contain one or two vacuum tubes and weigh perhaps 200 pounds.

There's only a global market for about 1, and 6k of memory ought to be enough for anybody?

Unrelated: I've read suggestions that, at present pace, we're a little over 1000 years from a Kardashev II civilization. I've also heard (but not been able to verify) that the percentage of energy expended on various things (like transportation) remains fairly constant regardless of the actual amount of energy involved. That would suggest, for example, a total energy budget of about 8 × 1025W for transportation. Without some idea of the population at that time, it's a little hard to extrapolate what that means on a personal level, though.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Josephine » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:07 pm UTC

PhoenixEnigma wrote:
Unrelated: I've read suggestions that, at present pace, we're a little over 1000 years from a Kardashev II civilization.

Could you elaborate on what pace you're talking about there?
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby PhoenixEnigma » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:19 pm UTC

nbonaparte wrote:
PhoenixEnigma wrote:Unrelated: I've read suggestions that, at present pace, we're a little over 1000 years from a Kardashev II civilization.
Could you elaborate on what pace you're talking about there?
Total energy production of the human race, which (not surprisingly) has been trending upwards over time. I'll have to see if I can find where I saw the millenium to Kardashev II estimate, but as an example we've gone from about 9.5TW average in 1980 to over 15TW now to a projected 25TW in 2035.

EDIT: This site seems to be what I remember, and bases the projection on about a 3% annual growth rate. That seems like a somewhat optimistic value, but still reasonable. From 1980 to 2004 we grew at an average of about 2%, at which rate it's more like 1500 years than 1000. We'll still have long since blown past Karashev I, though.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby ++$_ » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:16 pm UTC

furyguitar wrote:I would like to believe that by 3000 we will have put to rest the question of whether life exists in our solar system:
The answer had better be "yes," or I will be sad.

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby poxic » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:31 pm UTC

++$_ wrote:
furyguitar wrote:I would like to believe that by 3000 we will have put to rest the question of whether life exists in our solar system:
The answer had better be "yes," or I will be sad nonexistent.

FTFY.

And yeah, I'm a pessimist on our civilisation's long-term future. Too many people, too much warming and loss of healthy ecosystems, too little long-term thinking built into the world's various forms of government and business = poxic doubts we'll maintain this level of technology for more than another hundred years at best.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Josephine » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:47 pm UTC

PhoenixEnigma wrote:
nbonaparte wrote:
PhoenixEnigma wrote:Unrelated: I've read suggestions that, at present pace, we're a little over 1000 years from a Kardashev II civilization.
Could you elaborate on what pace you're talking about there?
Total energy production of the human race, which (not surprisingly) has been trending upwards over time. I'll have to see if I can find where I saw the millenium to Kardashev II estimate, but as an example we've gone from about 9.5TW average in 1980 to over 15TW now to a projected 25TW in 2035.

EDIT: This site seems to be what I remember, and bases the projection on about a 3% annual growth rate. That seems like a somewhat optimistic value, but still reasonable. From 1980 to 2004 we grew at an average of about 2%, at which rate it's more like 1500 years than 1000. We'll still have long since blown past Karashev I, though.

Ah, that's why. Much too linear, I say. I don't think it's unlikely to see 1000% growth rates within the century.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby PhoenixEnigma » Sun Sep 05, 2010 12:23 am UTC

nbonaparte wrote:
Spoiler:
PhoenixEnigma wrote:
nbonaparte wrote:
PhoenixEnigma wrote:Unrelated: I've read suggestions that, at present pace, we're a little over 1000 years from a Kardashev II civilization.
Could you elaborate on what pace you're talking about there?
Total energy production of the human race, which (not surprisingly) has been trending upwards over time. I'll have to see if I can find where I saw the millenium to Kardashev II estimate, but as an example we've gone from about 9.5TW average in 1980 to over 15TW now to a projected 25TW in 2035.

EDIT: This site seems to be what I remember, and bases the projection on about a 3% annual growth rate. That seems like a somewhat optimistic value, but still reasonable. From 1980 to 2004 we grew at an average of about 2%, at which rate it's more like 1500 years than 1000. We'll still have long since blown past Karashev I, though.

Ah, that's why. Much too linear, I say. I don't think it's unlikely to see 1000% growth rates within the century.

What? Even given the development of reasonably cheap, infinite energy sources, I don't think a ten-fold increase in energy usage in twelve months is realistic - there are limits to how fast production, transmission, and consumption equipment can be contructed and deployed.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Quantum Sunshine » Sun Sep 05, 2010 1:15 am UTC

Oh wow, I forgot I made this topic. The year 3000 thing wasn't really meant to be the point in time to think about. Anything from just past 'soon' to the end of time can be discussed.

PhoenixEnigma wrote:
nbonaparte wrote:
Spoiler:
PhoenixEnigma wrote:
nbonaparte wrote:
PhoenixEnigma wrote:Unrelated: I've read suggestions that, at present pace, we're a little over 1000 years from a Kardashev II civilization.
Could you elaborate on what pace you're talking about there?
Total energy production of the human race, which (not surprisingly) has been trending upwards over time. I'll have to see if I can find where I saw the millenium to Kardashev II estimate, but as an example we've gone from about 9.5TW average in 1980 to over 15TW now to a projected 25TW in 2035.

EDIT: This site seems to be what I remember, and bases the projection on about a 3% annual growth rate. That seems like a somewhat optimistic value, but still reasonable. From 1980 to 2004 we grew at an average of about 2%, at which rate it's more like 1500 years than 1000. We'll still have long since blown past Karashev I, though.

Ah, that's why. Much too linear, I say. I don't think it's unlikely to see 1000% growth rates within the century.

What? Even given the development of reasonably cheap, infinite energy sources, I don't think a ten-fold increase in energy usage in twelve months is realistic - there are limits to how fast production, transmission, and consumption equipment can be contructed and deployed.

Yeah, I don't think that 1000% growth rate is possible for energy (at least not in a year, maybe over a longer period of time), But I do have to agree that we'll likely see massive growth rates within the century.

Now that plenty of people have put forth there ideas, here is mine:

Cars, by 2100 will be irrelevant. Not because of jet packs or teleporters or anything like that, but because towns and cities will have grown so much that anything you could ever need will be within walking distance, or no distance at all due to advances in Internet connection.

Many countries will have fallen or have evolved to a point unpredicted by today's experts, such as the USA starting it's "IMA RAISE AN EMPIRE" stage.

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Josephine » Sun Sep 05, 2010 1:41 am UTC

Nanotechnology can make that work. molecular precision extraction of hydrocarbons, uranium, and deuterium can help for the near term. and in the longer term? cheap large scale orbital solar panels. Even longer, finally reaching a type II stage, a Dyson swarm (ring or sphere) could be made. A solid sphere would require far too much matter to build (a few calculations in wolfram alpha say it would require about 5.6 times the volume of Jupiter). But that's one example. throughout history, people have doubted how we would be able to do things in the future by applying their own intuition and knowledge of the technology of the day. but they still happened.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby SecondTalon » Sun Sep 05, 2010 6:44 am UTC

Kang wrote:For example the feudal system had been in place in Europe (and other places) for roughly a thousand years without any major game-changing alterations,
Right. The Magna Carta didn't do a thing. Nevermind that the Feudal System really didn't get up and going until roughly 1000CE, and started to peter out around 1300CE. Shit's always been changing, society is no exception. The only reason things are moving quickly now is because we have a communication network and an incentive to share knowledge, even if it's just within a single corporation.


Anyway, I cannot see technology being something that can be predicted. As far as society goes, we'll probably still be living in small (1-6 or so) groups of blood-related folk, with homosexuality being seen as normal. Whether or not a non-exploitative polygamy system can be set up is.. questionable, but I wouldn't be surprised either way, really.

We'll probably be down to just a couple hundred languages, though. Living ones, at least. There will probably be various language nerds keeping various dead tongues alive, but more as a curiosity than anything.

Cars, by 2100 will be irrelevant. Not because of jet packs or teleporters or anything like that, but because towns and cities will have grown so much that anything you could ever need will be within walking distance, or no distance at all due to advances in Internet connection.
I disagree. The whole reason the US has such a horrible need for cars is due to the suburban sprawl post WWII, brought on in part due to the "American Dream" being a house with a quarter acre yard and a fence and blah blah blah. Stuff that you can't really do and also live in a city with a 1.6 million population. At least, not without owning a car. Even if there's fantastic public transportation, you'd still need your car to get to the station.

So, unless various marketing firms decide to help us change our mind, and society goes along with it for convenience and so on, I don't see personal vehicle ownership going away in the next century. And I don't see that happening any time soon, as there's too many companies, both foreign and domestic, who have a huge investment in 'Mericans needing at least one car per person.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Pez Dispens3r » Sun Sep 05, 2010 8:17 am UTC

Quantum Sunshine wrote:Many countries will have fallen or have evolved to a point unpredicted by today's experts, such as the USA starting it's "IMA RAISE AN EMPIRE" stage.

Like, you mean the US might have a second one?

We can reasonably predict the general political makeup of the world will remain fairly consistent even as borders and names change. Large political structures and unions are difficult to maintain, so although they can emerge suddenly (USSR, NATO, EU) they tend to fracture and destabilize within relatively short time periods. That is, either the political unions lack potency (UN and NATO) or face serious threats to their internal stability (see how the global recession affected the EU, or look to the US Civil/States War which is solidly in the modern era). At the other end, nationalism tends to divide countries along cultural and linguistic lines, hence the possible Balkanization of Belgium and the United Kingdom, and the abstract existence of Kurdistan. These forces are largely balanced in the absence of global political-social conflict (such as the Cold War/bi-polar conflict) or significant local conflict (Israel-Palestine), and it would take some extremes for this mould to be broken. And by 'extremes' I mean 'a complete reversal of universal political norms as we currently understand them, which would make the ideological and social differences of the twentieth century seem a minor tiff'.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby TheKrikkitWars » Sun Sep 05, 2010 8:31 am UTC

Pez Dispens3r wrote:which would make the ideological and social differences of the twentieth century seem a minor tiff'.


Considering the scope of WW2 alone (50+million dead, 6ish million killed in a related genocide, offensive use of nuclear weapons), that sound's pretty fucking grim, I'm glad I'll be dead by 2100.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Pez Dispens3r » Sun Sep 05, 2010 9:09 am UTC

TheKrikkitWars wrote:
Pez Dispens3r wrote:...which would make the ideological and social differences of the twentieth century seem a minor tiff.

Considering the scope of WW2 alone (50+million dead, 6ish million killed in a related genocide, offensive use of nuclear weapons), that sound's pretty fucking grim, I'm glad I'll be dead by 2100.

The differences I talk of would not necessarily translate into deaths considering there are two major hurdles currently preventing a conflict so destructive. Namely, the MAD principle of nuclear warfare, preventing another unilateral strike, and the size of the US conventional forces. Between those two, major conflict is limited to the guerrilla variety which can never achieve the sort of systemized destruction we saw from WW2. And guerrilla warfare is the flavour of conflict we're currently witnessing in Iraq and Afghanistan. Cruel and brutal? Yes, but the number of combatant and civilian deaths is small change relative to other modern wars. Even the genocides we got in Indonesia and Myanmar look palatable next to the Holocaust.

What I am talking about is a complete reversal of the concept of civilian interaction in the state, including its military and government, which allowed for Napoleon to raise armies over Europe and for the Europeans to raise their armies over Africa. Socialism, democracy, fascism, and capitalism all gained their potency from the shift that was nationalism, and where capitalism has mostly had its victories over socialism the nationalist paradigm remains. It would take a similar change to what spawned Imperialism and the World Wars before we would witness a change to the current norms of political statecraft.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby tastelikecoke » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:25 am UTC

SexyTalon wrote:with homosexuality being seen as normal.

To be normal or to be very popular? The Greeks once did it, But that's because they don't consider women highly that time.

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Pez Dispens3r » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:46 am UTC

tastelikecoke wrote:
SexyTalon wrote:with homosexuality being seen as normal.

To be normal or to be very popular? The Greeks once did it, But that's because they don't consider women highly that time.

Uggh. Sort of? Read Sophacles's Antigone, or Aristophanes's The Assemblywomen, and you'll see how Greeks of the classical era struggled with the politics of gender similarly to how we do today. That is, although women did not have the same conventional rights of male citizens they still had agency, influence, and respect. And by no reports were Spartan women shrinking violets.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby tastelikecoke » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:37 am UTC

Well generally, the Greeks considered homosexuality as a trend because they preferred the male form (today both forms are complements, supposedly.)

also I doubt people would be wiped out completely by either climatic, nuclear, or ecological disasters. Either we will end up like the game Fallout, or we fall into paleolithic era, but every human dead sounds like a huge feat for a span of 1000 years.

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Pez Dispens3r » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:52 am UTC

tastelikecoke wrote:Well generally, the Greeks considered homosexuality as a trend because they preferred the male form (today both forms are complements, supposedly.)

Generally you have it right, but it's misleading to think of it as homosexuality. An exclusively homosexual person of today was not at all like Joe Somewhere-opolis of fifth century BC. And you could say that classical Greeks were fine with homosexuality (including the female form, considering the Lesbos narrative) because they weren't all icky about same-gender sex, which is why we can imagine future generations may get over that hurdle.
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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby Kang » Sun Sep 05, 2010 1:28 pm UTC

SecondTalon wrote:
Kang wrote:For example the feudal system had been in place in Europe (and other places) for roughly a thousand years without any major game-changing alterations,
Right. The Magna Carta didn't do a thing. Nevermind that the Feudal System really didn't get up and going until roughly 1000CE, and started to peter out around 1300CE. Shit's always been changing, society is no exception. The only reason things are moving quickly now is because we have a communication network and an incentive to share knowledge, even if it's just within a single corporation.

I disagree on the timeline you put there. While the 'high-class' feudalism with all blows and whistles one can find in the history books certainly was rather short lived in the 'high middle ages' the basic form of it was practiced in the later stages of the Roman Empire already, plus it was widespread outside of it. Also it took a while for the achievements of the Magna Charta to take proper effect in the rest of Europe, so my ballpark figure was that feudalism was more or less common between 400AD and 1400AD, but I'll admit I'm no expert on the matter and people who are really into it might insist on proper definitions; I just went by my personal perception of 'the basic principle' applying.
Obviously you are right that there was change, even within the 300 years you quoted. But eventually that was my initial point: there have been periods of comparable slow changes and periods of dramatic and quick changes throughout history.

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Re: The Year 3000.

Postby furyguitar » Sun Sep 05, 2010 3:04 pm UTC

This is not so much of a prediction as a question:
Presumably, sometime in the (hopefully) near future, we will be using some type(s) of re-usable/sustainable/non-fossil-based fuels. How will this play out on a global scale? There are countries who have little else than their fossil fuels, and often they are non-democratic in nature. What will happen to Iran, Saudi Arabia, various African nations, and Venezuela, when we and other large consumers of energy (China) do not need their fuels?
How will their regimes react?
How will their citizens, who are often oppressed by said regimes, react?

Also, continuing population growth will further stress food and drinkable water supplies. Robert Heinlein's children's book Farmer In the Sky posited sending colonists to another locale (Jupiter's Ganymede) to be completely self-sustainable, because they predicted soon the Earth's societies would collapse into self-destruction over food/water/space.


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