2012 U.S. Presidential Election

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Thesh
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:24 am UTC

That doesn't mean you can't call it with a high degree of certainty.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby EdgarJPublius » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:24 am UTC

It can definitely be a problem if the media calls it before polls close and influences someone's decision to vote or not vote, or even who to vote for.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby sigsfried » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:25 am UTC

sigsfried wrote:Plus UK proxies can be found.

You happen to have one? Whenever I try to look for proxies, I invariably end up with long list of proxies that do not work.[/quote]

I always manage when I am abroad I will try my usual suspects.

It can definitely be a problem if the media calls it before polls close and influences someone's decision to vote or not vote, or even who to vote for.


Didn't realise they did that, they are not allowed to in the UK. So is that where the problems in Florida came from?

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby bentheimmigrant » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:29 am UTC

http://election2012.npr.org/bigboard/president.html
NPR has a nice enough interface for following the states. The Guardian live blog isn't bad. But mostly I recommend going to bed. It's going to be a long time before the swing states start getting called.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Iulus Cofield » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:31 am UTC

It could still be determined fairly early, if, say, Florida gets called for Obama.

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:34 am UTC

I doubt that will happen. Florida is way too close, and it will be late before anyone attempts to call it.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Iulus Cofield » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:37 am UTC

CNN just reported that 25% of votes have already been counted, so it'll probably be called before bedtime if you're on the West Coast, although I imagine there will be recounts and lawsuits to drag out Florida's final results for weeks.

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Prefanity » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:22 am UTC

Iulus Cofield wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:
eran_rathan wrote:I feel bad about myself for voting for Nader in 2000. :-(


Pfft, I voted for Bush the first time around, try to top that for voter regret....


Voting for Bush the second time? Not me though, I always vote Libertarian.


I don't know, Kerry was kind of a limp fish.

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Garm » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:39 am UTC

I think Florida will be called next Friday at the earliest. The 16th isn't too long to wait for results, right?
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby webgiant » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:47 am UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:
JudeMorrigan wrote:Is there any chance at all that a third party candidate wins this election? I'm not asking how things should be or how they would be if 100 million people had magically woken up this morning and changed their minds on how to vote. I'm asking how things actually are.
Yes.

'Very, very, very, very, very, very fucking unlikely' is not the same as 'impossible'.

No matter how many zeroes you point in front of a decimal point, if the last number is not zero, then the number is not zero.

Whoo hoo!

<goes to buy a lottery ticket>

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Xeio » Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:13 am UTC

EdgarJPublius wrote:It can definitely be a problem if the media calls it before polls close and influences someone's decision to vote or not vote, or even who to vote for.
That's going to happen on the west coast regardless though. Most of the networks don't seem to be calling anything before the polls actually close in each state (not sure if that's a legal thing, or something else). Hence why NY and similar took till 9PM EST.

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby EdgarJPublius » Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:25 am UTC

Xeio wrote:
EdgarJPublius wrote:It can definitely be a problem if the media calls it before polls close and influences someone's decision to vote or not vote, or even who to vote for.
That's going to happen on the west coast regardless though. Most of the networks don't seem to be calling anything before the polls actually close in each state (not sure if that's a legal thing, or something else). Hence why NY and similar took till 9PM EST.



Yea, it can be tricky. They can't 'officially' call anything before the polls close/the count is in, but in the past they've used stuff like exit polling to get a jump on the official count.

And of course, the West Coast is problematic due to temporal geography. The polls may be open after the point when a candidate has enough electoral votes to take the election, which has all sorts of unfortunate implications for 'equal representation' and such that are almost never brought up.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby mike-l » Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:57 am UTC

Right now (10pm EST) http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/results is calling Wisconsin for Obama, but the reporting polls have Romney at 54%. (They're probably right, but it looks really funny right now)
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Xeio » Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:58 am UTC

mike-l wrote:Right now (10pm EST) http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/results is calling Wisconsin for Obama, but the reporting polls have Romney at 54%. (They're probably right, but it looks really funny right now)
Yea I keep looking at that and wondering. They must have some massive lead in exit polls to do that, right? They would undo that otherwise... right...?

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby mike-l » Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:59 am UTC

It was as high as 57% Romney. It's still less than 10% reporting. Presumably it's based on exit polls.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Iulus Cofield » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:06 am UTC

I am officially calling Florida and the election for Obama.

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:07 am UTC

I'm calling Pennsylvania but not Florida.

If Romney can get both Florida and Ohio, he has a chance. If not, then not.

Also, intrade has it 95% Obama ATM...

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby mike-l » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:10 am UTC

I'm looking at a pretty close race in Florida.

Obama looks pretty solid, even if he loses Florida, Colorado, and Wisconsin (seriously wtf Wisconsin?), he'll get 271. Only Ohio can really save Romney at this point, and it's not looking good.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:11 am UTC

...and NH went to Obama

It'd actually be kinda funny if Obama won but lost the popular vote.

Well, looks like people didn't want to try Romney's plan of reducing taxes in order to balance the budget.

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby mike-l » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:18 am UTC

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/06/3 ... orida.html

Can we admit it's voter suppression now.

I'm happy calling Florida for Obama now, gg. It does kind of look like he'll lose the popular vote though.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby omgryebread » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:20 am UTC

CNN just called enough senate races to save the Senate for Democrats.

Jon King is actually being really awesome, showing that the votes in Florida are coming from conservative strongholds, which are close to 100% reporting, while Miami-Dade and other democratic strongholds still have low reporting rates. Points to CNN for excellent reporting.

For the popular vote: remember that the populous west coast hasn't reported in yet, and they're a large part of the Democratic base.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:21 am UTC

Careful talking about the popular vote with the delay in New Jersey, and the highly populous and democratic west coast still to be counted.

Edit: look out! Ninja!
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Izawwlgood » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:23 am UTC

Would love for Republicans to start raising a stink about the popular vote being the important vote now...
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Derek » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:26 am UTC

yurell wrote:This gigantic, expensive spectacle makes me glad we don't elect our prime minister,

Don't the vast majority of voters vote based on who they want to be PM anyways?

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby lutzj » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:26 am UTC

Izawwlgood wrote:Would love for Republicans to start raising a stink about the popular vote being the important vote now...


Don't forget Johnson spoiling things for Romney in Florida. This election feels like a weird reversal of 2000 in a number of ways.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby folkhero » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:29 am UTC

Anyone know a good place to look at how ballot measures are doing? Politico doesn't seem to even be reporting on the ones they don't consider to be "key."
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby mike-l » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:29 am UTC

Todd Akin legitimately loses in Missouri.

Ballot measures are all viewable on Huffpost.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:48 am UTC

mike-l wrote:Todd Akin legitimately loses in Missouri.


Clearly he was asking for it.

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby folkhero » Wed Nov 07, 2012 3:49 am UTC

mike-l wrote:Ballot measures are all viewable on Huffpost.

Thanks. Looks like Arizona's propositions that I most opposed (115,120{crazy as fuck},121) are all getting shot down. Though I suppose most of you guys don't care too much about that.
mike-l wrote:Todd Akin legitimately loses in Missouri.
I guess the Republicans' strategy of 'run the biggest idiots you can find' is hurting them in some senate races. Who woulda thunk it?
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Xeio » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:03 am UTC

Tuning into Comedy Central's live coverage, already >>>>>> normal news.

Patrick Stewart FTW.

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:03 am UTC

And Wisconsin goes to Obama.

Followed by Iowa.

GG.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:08 am UTC

I think I'm going to have to go ahead and call it for Stein.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Iulus Cofield » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:09 am UTC

Eight minutes after the polls have closed and Oregon is already 37% done counting. The weird thing is that CNN hasn't already called us for Obama. I thought it was a tradition to deem the entire West Coast decided as soon as the polls were closed.

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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby yurell » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:11 am UTC

Been watching the election on Al Jazeera and constantly refreshing Ashley Miller's liveblog.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:14 am UTC

Msnbc just called Ohio and the election for Obama.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby (╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻ » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:21 am UTC

Yep, unless he magically loses Oregon he is projected to win.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Diadem » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:25 am UTC

ABC just called it for Obama as well.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby omgryebread » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:26 am UTC

CNN called Ohio and the election for Obama. Congratulations or condolences.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Diadem » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:28 am UTC

The polls haven't even closed in California have they? And have they even already opened in Hawaii?

Must feel terribly useless living in one of those states.
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Re: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Postby Tirian » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:29 am UTC

Ditto NPR calling the election, which was kinda grumpy that they were so late to the party. :)

(The polls have closed in California and Hawaii. Not in Alaska though.)


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