Bin Laden located?

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The Reaper
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Bin Laden located?

Postby The Reaper » Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:05 pm UTC

http://www.debka.com/article/8841/
Osama bin Laden's hiding place was pinned down for the first time Monday, June 7, by the Kuwaiti Al-Siyassa Monday, June 7, as the mountainous town of Savzevar in the northeastern Iranian province of Khorasan, 220 km west of Mashhad. He is said to have lived there under Tehran's protection for the last five years, along with Ayman Al-Zawahiri and five other high-ranking al Qaeda leaders.
DEBKAfile's intelligence sources disclosed Monday night that Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan and his intelligence chiefs are well aware that Bin Laden and Zawahiri are hiding in Iran. The leak to the Kuwait paper was intended to show the Obama administration that the Turkish leader's ties with Iran had grown intense enough for him to be fully in the picture of Iran's secret sanctuary for the authors of the 9/11 attacks on the United States.
Savzevar, a small town of about a quarter of a million inhabitants, is connected by road to Tehran and Mashhad and has a small airport. A center for producing grapes and raisins, its location is remote and difficult to access because it is enclosed by lofty mountains and a salt desert 50,000 square kilometers in area.
On May 13, American intelligence sources reported in detail that senior al Qaeda operatives living in Iran had been allowed to leave the country through Syria to orchestrate terrorist attacks on American targets. Among them was Saif al-Adel, who is believed to have been assigned with planning an attack on the world soccer games opening in South Africa on June 12.
Those sources noted that Saif al-Adel had received his instructions directly from Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri but did not reveal knowledge of their presence in Iran.
DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources disclose that the purpose of airing their precise whereabouts at this time, aside from implicating the Turkish leader, was first, to warn al Qaeda's leaders that their hideout was blown and they had better move on - which would make them easier to catch; and, second, to nudge US president Barak Obama into a decision to go after them.
A rare opportunity may now be building up to capture the world's most wanted terrorist, DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources report. Last December, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates acknowledged the United States has not had any good intelligence on bin Laden's whereabouts in years. Until recently, the elusive master-terrorist was generally thought to have gone to ground in the wilder parts of Pakistan-Afghanistan border region.
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby phillipsjk » Tue Jun 08, 2010 11:54 pm UTC

According to the "whois" information, it is based in Israel:

Code: Select all

Registrant:
   DEBKAfile Ltd.
   4, Hamaapilim St.
   Jerusalem,  92545
   Israel

   Registered through: GoDaddy.com, Inc. (http://www.godaddy.com)
   Domain Name: DEBKA.COM
      Created on: 28-May-00
      Expires on: 28-May-12
      Last Updated on: 18-May-09
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby The Reaper » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:00 am UTC

I figured that based on their "about" section, saying they have news in english and hebrew. I'm still not sure how much credibility it lends to them, however. Hence my curiousity.

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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby yoni45 » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:00 am UTC

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debka.com

Wiki wrote:DEBKAfile (Hebrew: תיק דבקה‎) is an Jerusalem-based English language Israeli open source military intelligence website with commentary and analyses on terrorism, intelligence, security, and military and political affairs in the Middle East. The word "Debka" refers to an Arab folk dance.[1]

The site started in the summer of 2000, and is operated from the Jerusalem home of veteran journalists Giora Shamis and Diane Shalem.[1] It has been awarded Forbes' Best of the Web award.[2] Forbes identifies the best part of the website as being its archives, but decries the fact that "most of the information is attributed to unidentified sources."

Wired.com's Noah Shachtman wrote in 2001 that the site "clearly reports with a point of view; the site is unabashedly in the hawkish camp of Israeli politics," adding that Debka had partnered with the right-wing news site WorldNetDaily for a weekly subscription product.[3] Yediot Achronot investigative reporter Ronen Bergman states that the site relies on information from sources with an agenda, such as neo-conservative elements of the US Republican Party, "whose worldview is that the situation is bad and is only going to get worse," and that Israeli intelligence officials do not consider even 10 percent of the site's content to be reliable.[1]

The site's operators, in contrast, state that 80 percent of what Debka reports turns out to be true, and point to its year 2000 prediction that al-Qaeda would again strike the World Trade Center, and that it had warned well before the 2006 war in Lebanon that Hezbollah had amassed 12,000 Katyusha rockets pointed at northern Israel.[1]


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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby iop » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:30 am UTC

Nice timing for reporting ties between Turkey and Iran.

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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby Omegaton » Wed Jun 09, 2010 2:15 am UTC

I'm not counting any chickens before they hatch...

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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby Jahoclave » Wed Jun 09, 2010 2:17 am UTC

And seeing as this website fails to mention his previous hiding locations, of Detroit, South Dakota, and that stint playing a guy playing Bin Laden in a Broadway Musical I can't take it all too seriously.

I know it's a challenge, but I'm not sure the U.S. is up to bombing more territory than the British Empire owned in one go.

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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby RockoTDF » Wed Jun 09, 2010 2:36 am UTC

iop wrote:Nice timing for reporting ties between Turkey and Iran.


My thoughts exactly. I wouldn't be shocked if Mossaud knew where Bin Laden was and was saving it for a time when they needed leverage against Turkey, who are becoming more radical as of late. Or at a time when they needed to "remind" the US of what an "important" ally they are in the region.
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby sje46 » Wed Jun 09, 2010 3:12 am UTC

I'd be highly surprised if Osama didn't die at least five years ago. When was his last video (not audio) tape?
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby aleflamedyud » Wed Jun 09, 2010 4:01 am UTC

RockoTDF wrote:
iop wrote:Nice timing for reporting ties between Turkey and Iran.


My thoughts exactly. I wouldn't be shocked if Mossaud knew where Bin Laden was and was saving it for a time when they needed leverage against Turkey, who are becoming more radical as of late. Or at a time when they needed to "remind" the US of what an "important" ally they are in the region.

What does Bin Laden have to do with Turkey? He's from Saudi Arabia.
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby Bakemaster » Wed Jun 09, 2010 4:15 am UTC

Try reading the OP?
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby RockoTDF » Wed Jun 09, 2010 5:35 am UTC

aleflamedyud wrote:
RockoTDF wrote:
iop wrote:Nice timing for reporting ties between Turkey and Iran.


My thoughts exactly. I wouldn't be shocked if Mossaud knew where Bin Laden was and was saving it for a time when they needed leverage against Turkey, who are becoming more radical as of late. Or at a time when they needed to "remind" the US of what an "important" ally they are in the region.

What does Bin Laden have to do with Turkey? He's from Saudi Arabia.


This:

DEBKAfile's intelligence sources disclosed Monday night that Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan and his intelligence chiefs are well aware that Bin Laden and Zawahiri are hiding in Iran. The leak to the Kuwait paper was intended to show the Obama administration that the Turkish leader's ties with Iran had grown intense enough for him to be fully in the picture of Iran's secret sanctuary for the authors of the 9/11 attacks on the United States.


So its no so much Bin Laden, but rather allegations that a NATO ally that has recently had bad relations with Israel happens to know where he is. If this were to be true, it would really really really really really hurt US and Turkey relations (along with the rest of NATO) and isolate Turkey, which would be really convenient for Israel.
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby Arancaytar » Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:57 am UTC

Meh, I'm still pissed at him, but with every passing year between 2001 and 2008, 9/11 increasingly paled against the economic and military disasters the US has gotten itself into.

Whoop de fucking do. If they catch him, they're going to hang him like they did Saddam Hussein, and who benefits? The god of vengeance?
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby lowbart » Wed Jun 09, 2010 10:27 am UTC

Jahoclave wrote:And seeing as this website fails to mention his previous hiding locations, of Detroit, South Dakota, and that stint playing a guy playing Bin Laden in a Broadway Musical I can't take it all too seriously


What? Am I just sadly uninformed or is that a joke?
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby sje46 » Wed Jun 09, 2010 10:38 am UTC

I think, if we all look into our hearts...aren't we all Osama bin Laden, on the inside?
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby Roĝer » Wed Jun 09, 2010 10:53 am UTC

No.
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby aleflamedyud » Wed Jun 09, 2010 11:38 am UTC

RockoTDF wrote:
aleflamedyud wrote:
RockoTDF wrote:
iop wrote:Nice timing for reporting ties between Turkey and Iran.


My thoughts exactly. I wouldn't be shocked if Mossaud knew where Bin Laden was and was saving it for a time when they needed leverage against Turkey, who are becoming more radical as of late. Or at a time when they needed to "remind" the US of what an "important" ally they are in the region.

What does Bin Laden have to do with Turkey? He's from Saudi Arabia.


This:

DEBKAfile's intelligence sources disclosed Monday night that Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan and his intelligence chiefs are well aware that Bin Laden and Zawahiri are hiding in Iran. The leak to the Kuwait paper was intended to show the Obama administration that the Turkish leader's ties with Iran had grown intense enough for him to be fully in the picture of Iran's secret sanctuary for the authors of the 9/11 attacks on the United States.


So its no so much Bin Laden, but rather allegations that a NATO ally that has recently had bad relations with Israel happens to know where he is. If this were to be true, it would really really really really really hurt US and Turkey relations (along with the rest of NATO) and isolate Turkey, which would be really convenient for Israel.

But as we saw above, DebkaFile is usually wrong and can be safely disregarded.
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby nowfocus » Wed Jun 09, 2010 3:37 pm UTC

RockoTDF wrote:So its no so much Bin Laden, but rather allegations that a NATO ally that has recently had bad relations with Israel happens to know where he is. If this were to be true, it would really really really really really hurt US and Turkey relations (along with the rest of NATO) and isolate Turkey, which would be really convenient for Israel.


It would also be convenient for Iran, giving them another ally in the region.
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby RockoTDF » Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:15 pm UTC

nowfocus wrote:
RockoTDF wrote:So its no so much Bin Laden, but rather allegations that a NATO ally that has recently had bad relations with Israel happens to know where he is. If this were to be true, it would really really really really really hurt US and Turkey relations (along with the rest of NATO) and isolate Turkey, which would be really convenient for Israel.


It would also be convenient for Iran, giving them another ally in the region.


Unless Turkey has gone way off the deep end (I acknowledge they are moving in a more radical direction, albeit slowly) overnight, I think NATO is a more important set of allies than Iran alone.

aleflamedyud wrote:But as we saw above, DebkaFile is usually wrong and can be safely disregarded.


Right. I figured if this was true it would be all over the news since I first saw this thread last night.
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby Vaniver » Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:18 pm UTC

aleflamedyud wrote:But as we saw above, DebkaFile is usually wrong and can be safely disregarded.
20% of the time is usually?
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby jestingrabbit » Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:30 pm UTC

It would be more than a little perverse if fundamentalist shia Iran was hiding fundamentalist sunni Bin Laden.
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby Dream » Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:43 pm UTC

Vaniver wrote:
aleflamedyud wrote:But as we saw above, DebkaFile is usually wrong and can be safely disregarded.
20% of the time is usually?

No, but if twenty per cent of articles in a newspaper were wrong, well, it would just look like carelessness, no?
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby yoni45 » Thu Jun 10, 2010 12:44 am UTC

Dream wrote:No, but if twenty per cent of articles in a newspaper were wrong, well, it would just look like carelessness, no?


Perhaps, but if only 20% of a psychic's predictions failed to come true, that'd look like the best psychic ever.

You can't judge a speculation site by the same criteria as a newspaper.

(although I'd imagine that alef was questioning the 80% figure cited -- not claiming that 80% is a poor track record)
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby iop » Thu Jun 10, 2010 1:51 am UTC

nowfocus wrote:
RockoTDF wrote:So its no so much Bin Laden, but rather allegations that a NATO ally that has recently had bad relations with Israel happens to know where he is. If this were to be true, it would really really really really really hurt US and Turkey relations (along with the rest of NATO) and isolate Turkey, which would be really convenient for Israel.


It would also be convenient for Iran, giving them another ally in the region.

Another ally? Since when does Iran have allies (as opposed to terrorist organisations they're financing)?

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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby Jahoclave » Thu Jun 10, 2010 3:13 am UTC

lowbart wrote:
Jahoclave wrote:And seeing as this website fails to mention his previous hiding locations, of Detroit, South Dakota, and that stint playing a guy playing Bin Laden in a Broadway Musical I can't take it all too seriously


What? Am I just sadly uninformed or is that a joke?

It's a joke, though, if I were Osama those would be, in fact, the places I would go to hide. After all, the number of people looking for Osama inside the country, pretty much rounds down to zero percent of the people looking for Osama.

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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby sje46 » Thu Jun 10, 2010 4:12 am UTC

I heard Matt and Trey got Osama to voice himself over the phone.
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby nowfocus » Thu Jun 10, 2010 4:47 am UTC

RockoTDF wrote:Unless Turkey has gone way off the deep end (I acknowledge they are moving in a more radical direction, albeit slowly) overnight, I think NATO is a more important set of allies than Iran alone.

Well yeah - the use of the word 'ally' was a bit strong. In any case - I imagine Iran would be happy to see the American/Turkish relationship deteriorate.
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby jestingrabbit » Thu Jun 10, 2010 4:40 pm UTC

iop wrote:Another ally? Since when does Iran have allies (as opposed to terrorist organisations they're financing)?


I'd say its reasonable to call russia and, to a lesser extent, china, its allies. A lot of their significant military hardware (ie SAMs) are russian.
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Re: Bin Laden located?

Postby Paz » Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:27 pm UTC

BS by default. A few moments googling couldn't illuminate me on whether Iran's Islam is incompatible with Bin Laden's or otherwise, they way Al-Qaeda's was with Zarqawi's (apologies for my incompetent noddy commentary). But nonetheless if there's a shred of truth to this, with regards to the NATO effort in Afghanistan and Pakistan, just like in Indiana Jones and The Lost Ark, any one else looking for Bin Laden is suddenly going to think: "They're digging in the wrong place!". Still smells like BS though.

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Re: Thread Digressions:

The first two of Iran's allies that spring to my mind are Syria and Hezbollah <sp?> in Lebanon. From Israel's point of view it is surrounded by them, at least to the north and east-ish, and elsewhere backed up against the sea.

From Iran's point of view it is surrounded by NATO powers or allies, Afghanistan, those miscellaneous stans holding US airbases, Pakistan (nuclear power), Kuwait, Iraq and Israel (nuclear power), and that's not even all of their concerns. The fact that a lot of the world's naval effort is more concerned by Somali pirates right now might be some comfort to Iranian military strategists, but at the end of the day, the enemy boats are still there...

Anyway if it is true I'll add it to my list of ways the Iranian people are being shat on.


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