gd1 wrote:I mean gridlock in the sense that nothing happens rather than the strict definition though.
Ah, fair enough. Will be interesting to watch at any rate.
sardia wrote:That's a survivor bias, aka one time rapists will rarely get caught. The repeat rapists just roll the dice so often that they get caught.
Probably true for most crimes, but recidivism is fairly high for such offenses compared to other crimes, yes? I think that'd imply that offenders are more likely to be habitual in general, both caught and uncaught.
asoban wrote:Something that concerns me, most of the people I know who voted for Trump held their nose to do so. Why? Supreme Court picks that went their way. If Kavanaugh isn't confirmed before the election then it is entirely possible that the SC seat he is going for will become the topic of the election. That being the case, I think that the Democrat's chances are greatly hurt by this. Thoughts?
It'll be a topic, but I'm not sure it'll impact the Democrats chances greatly. I mean, yeah, Republicans might be enthused to vote if perception is that a SC seat is on the line, but the same could also be true of Democrats. After all, if this seat goes republican, it's probably a republican court for ages.
asoban wrote:In terms of the sexual accusations against him, I think that while notable, Ford's account isn't really actionable. Two of the three people strongly deny that it happened. To overcome that, we need evidence outside of Ford. The issue with the Therapist's notes is that their not evidence from outside Ford. All they tell us is what Ford said in 2012. Ramirez's accusation may be actionable, but for that to be the case, we need to get testimony from a couple of the other witnesses which do appear to exist. We get that evidence, and I think we may have something actionable. Until Avenatti's evidence actually comes forward, his statements are neither notable nor actionable.
I agree that, in a vacuum, Ford's accusations are lacking in oomph. However, the more accusations, particularly credible accusations that are levied, the more serious any given accusation seems. If you believe he's the sort of fellow that would cross those lines once, it's more likely that he's the sort of fellow that would do it twice. If another woman comes out accusing Bill Cosby, I'm not going to be surprised, yknow?
Yeah, we're still short of full on proof, but it's far more probable that one person makes an invalid accusation than that many do so independently. So, eyeballing the odds, one ought to view Kav with a lot more suspicion given the additional information.