Trump presidency

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Tyndmyr
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:22 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Housing is only more expensive in 'blue' areas due to a combination of those areas being nicer and the people having more money; things that only happen when your local government provides education and infrastructure. If the town is a poor shithole, landlords can't charge as much.


Sure, it's mostly a result of urbanization.

But largely, Republicans prioritize problems they have, not problems Democrats have. The same is true in reverse, of course. The principles of each party largely support matters of simple self interest. They put about as much effort into fixing urban problems as Democrats put into fixing dying coal towns.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:55 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:Housing is only more expensive in 'blue' areas due to a combination of those areas being nicer and the people having more money; things that only happen when your local government provides education and infrastructure. If the town is a poor shithole, landlords can't charge as much.

Sure, it's mostly a result of urbanization.
But largely, Republicans prioritize problems they have, not problems Democrats have. The same is true in reverse, of course. The principles of each party largely support matters of simple self interest. They put about as much effort into fixing urban problems as Democrats put into fixing dying coal towns.

You're ignoring ideological, economic, and racial anxiety. A substantial portion of the country recognizes that something isn't right* and decided that blacks/minorities/others/globalism were at fault. Abortion/Tax cuts gave Trump the South, economic/racial arguments gave Trump the Midwest. I remember how much poor whites in the South appreciated Jim Crow laws, the Chinese exclusion act, or the "Irish need not apply" signs. You made similar arguments about gun control. "Life sucks, what do we do? Those politicians say we should kick out muslim & mexicans. Good enough".

* Your choice between stagnant pay, high healthcare costs, minorities getting equality, income inequality

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Link » Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:04 pm UTC

Dauric wrote:
My $0.02: [snip]
So basically, a combination of partisanship and being poorly informed or flat-out denying facts? Maybe I'm just naive, but I find it hard to believe such a large percentage of the population would be sufficiently stuck in those patterns that they fail to see how much of a clusterfuck-incarnate Donald Trump -- and by extension the vast majority of the Republican party, by continuing to support him -- is. Then again, the past few years of political news have been little but serial disappointment in humanity for me, so who knows.

Zohar wrote:
If the Democrats are seen as literally murdering babies and taking away guns, then yeah - I'm not too surprised.
Is that really a common view, and not something only the most fundamentalist (but vocal) minority believes? Because that's, well, fucked up.

Tyndmyr wrote:
Firearms matter. I don't particularly care what you offer me, as a candidate, if you're attempting to take away fundamental rights. Now, Trump also fails this test for non-gun related reasons. The slightly up-thread bit about looking into laws regarding saying only nice things about him is a pretty obvious clue that he doesn't really respect freedom of speech. Some people care about the speech more, some people care about the guns more. I think both are pretty important, but it's not really surprising that overtly advertising an attack on what folks view as a fundamental right goes...poorly.
Fair enough, I suppose I just don't understand "gun culture" enough to appreciate how much it means to some people.

Tyndmyr wrote:Our progress towards our Kyoto goals has actually quickened under Trump(though surely not due to any conscious decision on Trump's part).
Do you have a source for that? (In any case, Trump withdrew from the Paris agreement and appointed a climate change denier as head of the EPA, so the point still stands.)

As for partisanship, I can perfectly understand people sticking with the party if the presidential candidate is someone remotely comparable to e.g. Bush or McCain. But instead they picked a self-absorbed, unlikeable buffoon with the verbal equivalent of Crohn's disease and the attitude of a spoilt 5-year-old. This is not the same Republican party it was a decade ago. It's a degenerate shadow of a political party now; a cesspool of hypocrisy and greed. I just find it absolutely flabbergasting that people can stay "true to the party" when the party so obviously hasn't even pretended to stay true to itself. Yes, some traditionalist ideals have remained, but these seem inconsequential when a walking cock-up like Trump is at the wheel and nobody in the party stands up against him.

As for diplomatic relations, it's true that I don't see Western countries directly cutting ties with the US, but Trump is playing very dangerous games with his trade wars, haphazard withdrawal from previous agreements, and tsundere flirtation with dictators.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:29 pm UTC

Link wrote:
Zohar wrote:
If the Democrats are seen as literally murdering babies and taking away guns, then yeah - I'm not too surprised.
Is that really a common view, and not something only the most fundamentalist (but vocal) minority believes? Because that's, well, fucked up.


1 in 6 believe abortion should be illegal in all cases, even rape. So yeah, pretty fricken common.

Personally, I find abortion to be disturbing, but ultimately necessary; one of my hobbies is reading up on the parts of human history that get glossed over or ignored due to being, well, disturbing, and the fact that human sacrifice/infanticide was nearly universal kind of puts things in perspective...

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gmalivuk » Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:41 am UTC

In more trying-to-create-a-white-ethnostate news, The U.S. is denying passports to Americans along the border, throwing their citizenship into question.

In some cases, passport applicants with official U.S. birth certificates are being jailed in immigration detention centers and entered into deportation proceedings. In others, they are stuck in Mexico, their passports suddenly revoked when they tried to reenter the United States. As the Trump administration attempts to reduce both legal and illegal immigration, the government’s treatment of passport applicants in South Texas shows how U.S. citizens are increasingly being swept up by immigration enforcement agencies.

Juan said he was infuriated by the government’s response. “I served my country. I fought for my country,” he said, speaking on the condition that his last name not be used so that he wouldn’t be targeted by immigration enforcement.
Unless stated otherwise, I do not care whether a statement, by itself, constitutes a persuasive political argument. I care whether it's true.
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Tyndmyr
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:27 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:Housing is only more expensive in 'blue' areas due to a combination of those areas being nicer and the people having more money; things that only happen when your local government provides education and infrastructure. If the town is a poor shithole, landlords can't charge as much.

Sure, it's mostly a result of urbanization.
But largely, Republicans prioritize problems they have, not problems Democrats have. The same is true in reverse, of course. The principles of each party largely support matters of simple self interest. They put about as much effort into fixing urban problems as Democrats put into fixing dying coal towns.

You're ignoring ideological, economic, and racial anxiety. A substantial portion of the country recognizes that something isn't right* and decided that blacks/minorities/others/globalism were at fault. Abortion/Tax cuts gave Trump the South, economic/racial arguments gave Trump the Midwest. I remember how much poor whites in the South appreciated Jim Crow laws, the Chinese exclusion act, or the "Irish need not apply" signs. You made similar arguments about gun control. "Life sucks, what do we do? Those politicians say we should kick out muslim & mexicans. Good enough".

* Your choice between stagnant pay, high healthcare costs, minorities getting equality, income inequality


Protectionism is a thing, sure.

Racism, ehhh. I'm not sure that has much explanatory value. Trump did just fine on getting black voters compared to Romney, after all. I also have trouble buying that the midwest is racist, but the south isn't. The latter has a lot more confederate flags and what not. Plus, racism probably loses as many voters as it gets. Sure, there are those for whom it appeals, but there's a lot of people who are bothered by it. I don't think it contributes to republican success. Few of the voters to whom they appeal by it would vote for any other party instead. Racism isn't a great strategy.

Is that really a common view, and not something only the most fundamentalist (but vocal) minority believes? Because that's, well, fucked up.


Yes, a fuckton of people believe abortion is intrinsically murder. Additionally, this viewpoint is not changing over time. If you look at Gallup's poll on the issue, there's a remarkable consistency to it*. It's one of the big republican/democrat split issues. Yeah, it's heavily tied to religion, but decreasing religiosity isn't decreasing it.

*https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

Do you have a source for that? (In any case, Trump withdrew from the Paris agreement and appointed a climate change denier as head of the EPA, so the point still stands.)


If memory serves, it was at https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi82vT5lpXdAhVwrlkKHTl1DlQQFjAAegQIAhAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fnews%2Fenergy-environment%2Fwp%2F2018%2F06%2F01%2Ftrump-withdrew-from-the-paris-climate-plan-a-year-ago-heres-what-has-changed%2F&usg=AOvVaw1Ma9VFFO-NF9uAfEpVEaak wapo. It seems that a paywall of some kind has popped up, so I can't actually verify that it's correct based on more than the summary without giving them money, but I'm about 90% sure it's the right link.

It's certainly true that Trump does not prioritize climate change. It's true for many voters as well. Folks in dying coal towns care a lot more about their community's well-being now than they do the global climate a hundred years from now. That said, it's been hard to blame much actual damage on Trump thus far. This may change if asbestos becomes popular for everything again.

I just find it absolutely flabbergasting that people can stay "true to the party" when the party so obviously hasn't even pretended to stay true to itself.


A downside of the two party system is that both main parties are coalitions, not self consistent ideologies. Yeah, there's a general theme to each party, but neither is wholly unified, and expecting either to be "true to itself" is probably futile.

As for diplomatic relations, it's true that I don't see Western countries directly cutting ties with the US, but Trump is playing very dangerous games with his trade wars, haphazard withdrawal from previous agreements, and tsundere flirtation with dictators.


Dangerous, how? If you mean it makes risking Trump appear to be an ass, sure. This appears not to bother Trump, and anyways, it's unclear who he could further offend at this point. It seems very low risk for the US, though. We're unlikely to actually lose much due to these actions.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Link » Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:37 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:
1 in 6 believe abortion should be illegal in all cases, even rape. So yeah, pretty fricken common.
Yikes, that's worse than I thought. Although of course this doesn't necessarily suggest all of these people equate Democrats with baby-killers by default. Still... damn.

Tyndmyr wrote:
If memory serves, it was at https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi82vT5lpXdAhVwrlkKHTl1DlQQFjAAegQIAhAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fnews%2Fenergy-environment%2Fwp%2F2018%2F06%2F01%2Ftrump-withdrew-from-the-paris-climate-plan-a-year-ago-heres-what-has-changed%2F&usg=AOvVaw1Ma9VFFO-NF9uAfEpVEaak wapo. It seems that a paywall of some kind has popped up, so I can't actually verify that it's correct based on more than the summary without giving them money, but I'm about 90% sure it's the right link.
That article suggests it's mostly riding inertia of Obama's climate goals, and the tracker to which it links shows that the current projection is a lot worse under Trump.

Tyndmyr wrote:
Dangerous, how? If you mean it makes risking Trump appear to be an ass, sure. This appears not to bother Trump, and anyways, it's unclear who he could further offend at this point. It seems very low risk for the US, though. We're unlikely to actually lose much due to these actions.
American companies moving abroad due to the trade war Trump started and Iran being royally pissed at the US and restarting its nuclear programme sound like pretty bad news to me (and if it's true that Iran funds terrorism directly, deliberately aggravating them is not exactly a good move).

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:54 pm UTC

Link wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:
1 in 6 believe abortion should be illegal in all cases, even rape. So yeah, pretty fricken common.
Yikes, that's worse than I thought. Although of course this doesn't necessarily suggest all of these people equate Democrats with baby-killers by default. Still... damn.


It's a ton. It's way more common on the right too. Assuming a roughly 50/50 split, you should expect roughly 1/3 republicans to have this view(and very few democrats). A significant number of republicans will make exceptions in extreme cases such as those, but are still pretty strongly anti-abortion. Taken together, it's a quite strong effect on the right.

Tyndmyr wrote:That article suggests it's mostly riding inertia of Obama's climate goals, and the tracker to which it links shows that the current projection is a lot worse under Trump.


Right, the point isn't that Trump gives a crap about the environment, simply that there has been effectively no actual negative result of yet. Depending on what all policies Trump messes with, that might change, but so far, there's nothing that would bother the average republican voter. It's not surprising that they're still on board. They've always prioritized economy over ecology, and thus far, they've mainly gotten the former without paying any significant price in the latter. Of course they're still on board.

Tyndmyr wrote:
Dangerous, how? If you mean it makes risking Trump appear to be an ass, sure. This appears not to bother Trump, and anyways, it's unclear who he could further offend at this point. It seems very low risk for the US, though. We're unlikely to actually lose much due to these actions.
American companies moving abroad due to the trade war Trump started and Iran being royally pissed at the US and restarting its nuclear programme sound like pretty bad news to me (and if it's true that Iran funds terrorism directly, deliberately aggravating them not exactly a good move).


Eh, offshoring has been a problem for forever. The trade war *could* go sideways, but it hasn't yet, and it probably won't. Most other parties have a great deal more to lose from one than the US does. Sure, it's a bit of a gambit, but one that Trump'll probably win. Or at least get enough out of it to claim a win without a definitive loss. And in fairness, China *has* played fast and loose in a number of areas. While Trump's overall approach isn't ideal, there's some nuggets of legitimate points in there.

I highly doubt republicans put much value on our relationship with Iran, or greatly valued the unratified agreement the Obama administration made with Iran. Also, a policy of "they fund terrorists, so we have to be nice to them" sets up some really, really bad incentives. However you feel about the arms deal, that's probably a reason against dealing with them, not one for it.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gd1 » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:50 am UTC

I'm going to regret this joke:

Image

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Zamfir » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:57 am UTC

Eh, offshoring has been a problem for forever. The trade war *could* go sideways, but it hasn't yet, and it probably won't. Most other parties have a great deal more to lose from one than the US does.

I dont think this holds. Yes, the US typically has a strong negotiation position. But that's nothing new, and the US has already used that position to carve out benefits. So in re-negotiation, the US has plenty to lose even in very lopsided negotiations like NAFTA. Namely, the small and large benefits that it bargained for in the past. It's just that those benefits tend to go to rich Americans, leaving a widespread feeling that US trade policy doesn't achieve much. It's not like the offshoring "just happened", the US ran a pro-offshoring policy for decades.

The more Trump plays hardball on trade, the more opposition he'll encounter from the upper classes for whom the current trade policy did achieve much. And who have easy access to the guy in person (he seems sensitive for that), and infinite clout within the republican party.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Soupspoon » Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:44 am UTC

And now he's threatening to pull out of the WTO

(And, in a comment really needed in another rather makes the Brexit Fallback position worse, eh? I mean, we could have an entirely separate deal-on-everything with the US, but if all deals with the US must favour the US (or someone cancels them, out of spite) then how good will that position be for the UK?)

What's the combined land and sea boundary of the entire US? That's a very long wall. And the UN will pay for it, I expect, once the US withdraws from every international agreeement including the UN itself. And maybe roof over it too, then see what it's like in there in a century or two.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:11 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:
Eh, offshoring has been a problem for forever. The trade war *could* go sideways, but it hasn't yet, and it probably won't. Most other parties have a great deal more to lose from one than the US does.

I dont think this holds. Yes, the US typically has a strong negotiation position. But that's nothing new, and the US has already used that position to carve out benefits. So in re-negotiation, the US has plenty to lose even in very lopsided negotiations like NAFTA. Namely, the small and large benefits that it bargained for in the past. It's just that those benefits tend to go to rich Americans, leaving a widespread feeling that US trade policy doesn't achieve much. It's not like the offshoring "just happened", the US ran a pro-offshoring policy for decades.

The more Trump plays hardball on trade, the more opposition he'll encounter from the upper classes for whom the current trade policy did achieve much. And who have easy access to the guy in person (he seems sensitive for that), and infinite clout within the republican party.


That's all true, and present a problem for Trump, but I'm not sure it presents a problem for the average Republican voter, or even the average American. The things being risked are of comparatively small importance to the average dude unless negotiations break down entirely and everyone decides to just throw punitive tariffs at the US. That seems an extreme result, but it's the only one that presents real danger to the voter base.

The US has a great bargaining position, and a fairly poor position of relative tariffs at present. It's very hard to imagine things turning out worse for the country as a whole.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Mutex » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:26 pm UTC

Various industries in the US are already feeling the pain from Trump's trade war, that's why he had to announce a $12Bn rescue package for them. There's plenty of products the US produces that other countries can easily get from other sources, and plenty of manufacturing in the US that doesn't need to be there (see Harley Davidson). There's a lot that can go wrong for the US here.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:38 pm UTC

True, but as a net importer, cutting off trade entirely would harm the rest of the world financially more than it would harm the US. Long term, there really isn't anything the rest of the world produces that the US can't, even if in the short term the US doesn't even produce a single television.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Mutex » Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:01 pm UTC

Sure but that's a bit of a Brexit mentality - "at least it'll hurt them more" - rather than trying to optimise the best outcome for everyone. No one is suggesting stopping trade with the US entirely. The rest of your post suggests the US could just become a hermit state if necessary? Which... might be true, not exactly ideal though.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:14 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:Sure but that's a bit of a Brexit mentality - "at least it'll hurt them more" - rather than trying to optimise the best outcome for everyone. No one is suggesting stopping trade with the US entirely. The rest of your post suggests the US could just become a hermit state if necessary? Which... might be true, not exactly ideal though.


It'd definitely be suboptimal, but as you say, nobody is suggesting stopping trade with the US entirely. This is largely because they risk more than we do.

Right now, the US is a fairly low tariff state compared to other countries. So, from a certain perspective, the status quo is not equal, even apart from the trade deficit. When you look at the trade deficit, we clearly have the leverage to push back on that a bit. A breakdown of trade isn't good overall, but we can almost certainly strike a balance that is better for the US, and is still pretty decent for our trade partners.

The elephant in the room is of course China. Not only are they a fairly large trade partner, they fairly routinely rip off our IP or engage in other dodgy business practices. Holding them to account makes a great deal of sense.

Now, Trump isn't pitching the trade issue very well. His viewpoint is largely that of winners and losers, and his rhetoric is not very informative about trade issues. However, there's a decent possibility that the folks who do the actual work of writing trade deals will make a better job of it than what we've currently got. How much credit you want to give to Trump for that, ehhhh....but of course he'll try to take credit.

The ideal trade relationship would be something like everyone respecting everyone else's IP, nobody polluting horribly, and free trade for all, but reality often is disappointing.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby addams » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:51 pm UTC

Trade relations are not our largest problem.
We are in a relationship with a Narcissist.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby iamspen » Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:49 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:The US has a great bargaining position, and a fairly poor position of relative tariffs at present. It's very hard to imagine things turning out worse for the country as a whole.


You're forgetting that China is a single-party authoritarian state, and they ultimately don't have to give any fucks if they're on the crappy side of a trade war for 15 years because, at the end of the day, they can wait it out as long as they need to in order to come out on top.

If they want.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby emceng » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:14 am UTC

So had a chat with the CEO of a medical device manufacturer. They build items that need aluminum. There are 2 manufacturers in the USA that make something close to what they need - not the exact thing, but maybe usable. Except those two don't give a fuck about their customers because they now have a monopoly. They are booked 6+ months out, are regularly late with shipments, and were having like a 70% failure rate of product being delivered for medical products.

So tariffs are fucking this company. They used to buy from China and Europe but prices are now sky high. They're going to build a facility in Europe instead of the USA because of this bullshit.

CEO's theory - Wilbur Ross has stakes in the US aluminum companies.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:54 am UTC

Yeah, it's always stupid to place tariffs on primary sector industries like ores, metals, oil, raw cloth, etc. Britain didn't rape/conquer half the world by protecting the cotton growers in Wales, after all.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby freezeblade » Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:13 pm UTC

The company that I just left is having a similar problem with Aluminum, I may have mentioned it previously, but it worked mainly with aluminum sheet goods. They are having to re-tool business due to it, and I have left for a less effected industry (ok, I lie, it wasn't the only reason I left).

emceng wrote:So had a chat with the CEO of a medical device manufacturer. They build items that need aluminum. There are 2 manufacturers in the USA that make something close to what they need - not the exact thing, but maybe usable. Except those two don't give a fuck about their customers because they now have a monopoly. They are booked 6+ months out, are regularly late with shipments, and were having like a 70% failure rate of product being delivered for medical products.

So tariffs are fucking this company. They used to buy from China and Europe but prices are now sky high. They're going to build a facility in Europe instead of the USA because of this bullshit.

CEO's theory - Wilbur Ross has stakes in the US aluminum companies.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:12 am UTC

Plus side, now would be a very good time to set up an aluminum manufacturing business. I mean, it's not like most of the bauxite is located oversea... oh.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:32 am UTC

I'm in steel blanking for automotives, and the perspective from the peons is very different. My maintenance team doesn't give a shit that prices are going up for steel. Long-term contacts are buffering us for now, but that's going to run out. Given that we get paid through a contract, their salaries won't be directly affected. More likely, we'll miss our profit forecast, and automatically reduce the employer 401k contributions to compensate.

As for the argument about tariffs, they deflect with arguments about China stealing our stuff. They'll just ride this out from here. No changes in attitude, nor do I expect it unless the customer makes it clear of the connection between tariffs and business. Most of the staff is old, and about to retire. Or they're young and dumb.

PS, "when Trump finally deports those children at the camps, they should send the families the bill."

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby addams » Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:52 am UTC

sardia wrote:PS, "when Trump finally deports those children at the camps, they should send the families the bill."
Trump's Crime Family?
(shrug...) Yes. Sure.
They can afford it.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:18 am UTC

Depends what IP China steals. Most of it is self inflicted idiocy; company contracts with a Chinese firm to mass produce some part, spends the money building the plant and training the locals to make the part, then bitches that the part is now on the market for half the cost. I mean, it's not right, but it has been going on so long that anyone doing business over there knows damn well it will happen.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ObsessoMom » Sun Sep 02, 2018 3:56 am UTC

Caution, puns ahead:

Oops! How tariffs aimed at Chinese steel dinged an American beer keg manufacturer

Peter Rowe in the San Diego Union-Tribune, my local rag," wrote:China Syndrome

Oh, the iron-y. The Trump Administration’s 25 percent tariff on imported steel is denting business at American Keg Co., a factory that uses only U.S. steel.

American Keg CEO Paul Czachor explains that the tariff hurts for two reasons:

1. The tariff only applies to raw steel, not finished steel products — such as Chinese beer kegs.

2. The tariff has dried up steel imports, causing demand — and prices — to rise for U.S. steel.

Both developments are testing the mettle of American Keg, the only U.S. keg maker relying entirely on domestic steel. Not only is the Pottstown, Pa., factory paying more for raw materials, it’s losing ground to Chinese competitors.

“We have a lot of patriotic customers who wanted to buy an all-American product,” said Czachor, noting that many of those patriots run California breweries. “But it’s a little harder for them to swallow now. We’ve seen our business tail off significantly.”

Before the tariffs, American Keg’s half keg — a 15.5-gallon container — sold for about $105, $10 more than the Chinese import. “Now we’re talking about $115 or $118 for a half-keg,” Czachor said, “and the import is still $95.”

Czachor, who recently laid off one-third of his 30 employees, was in Washington last week. His message: slap tariffs on Chinese kegs.

“This isn’t because we’re an inefficient company looking for a bailout,” he said this week.”We would put our product and quality against anyone in the world. We just want a level playing field.”

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sardia
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:25 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Depends what IP China steals. Most of it is self inflicted idiocy; company contracts with a Chinese firm to mass produce some part, spends the money building the plant and training the locals to make the part, then bitches that the part is now on the market for half the cost. I mean, it's not right, but it has been going on so long that anyone doing business over there knows damn well it will happen.

If you don't want to be cut off from the Chinese market, you don't have a choice. There's laws that prevent you from running your own firm in China. You can get around this by giving them access to outdated tech, and let them steal that, but that only a bandaid. Most companies are short sighted, or think they can beat the market.

I think I need to fire someone and say this is the your idiot tax for supporting tariffs. Except it doesn't work like that. Fun fact 2, we kept all the profits from the Trump tax break. Not a single tax cuts penny for raises. The smart ones know something is up with the lack of raises. I'm surprised nobody called out the CFO on that.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:43 am UTC

sardia wrote:
CorruptUser wrote:Depends what IP China steals. Most of it is self inflicted idiocy; company contracts with a Chinese firm to mass produce some part, spends the money building the plant and training the locals to make the part, then bitches that the part is now on the market for half the cost. I mean, it's not right, but it has been going on so long that anyone doing business over there knows damn well it will happen.

If you don't want to be cut off from the Chinese market, you don't have a choice. There's laws that prevent you from running your own firm in China. You can get around this by giving them access to outdated tech, and let them steal that, but that only a bandaid. Most companies are short sighted, or think they can beat the market.

I think I need to fire someone and say this is the your idiot tax for supporting tariffs. Except it doesn't work like that. Fun fact 2, we kept all the profits from the Trump tax break. Not a single tax cuts penny for raises. The smart ones know something is up with the lack of raises. I'm surprised nobody called out the CFO on that.


Are we talking about the same thing?

Hypothetical, I make lawnmowers in the US, which contain various parts but the most complicated is the engine.
I decide I can save money by manufacturing the lawnmower engines in China.
I spend a small fortune with Chinese company to set up a lawnmower engine factory and train a hundred workers in China.
The variable cost of each engine is $25, but I have to recoup the investment in the factory as well as engineering and design, so it's really $60 per engine.
A lawnmower factory mysteriously appears in the neighboring Chinese town, and they are paying only $30 for an indistinguishable but totally not my lawnmower engine.
The knockoff lawnmowers are now being imported to the US.

Yeah, I done goofed, and I have absolutely no one else to blame but myself.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby emceng » Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:49 am UTC

The other side of that that I think sardia is talking about is if you want to sell anything in China. Yes, you are right about how they do business when a US company sets up a factory over there. But what if you want to sell your lawnmower in China? It's a market with 3 billion people. The government basically requires you to do business in a way that hands your IP to them, or you won't be able to do business there.

GE had this happen to them. They spent something like $1 billion on R&D developing a new type of turbine. Chinese govt demanded details or GE would be kicked out of the country. And will GE shareholders be ok with not being in China?
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Dauric » Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:19 pm UTC

emceng wrote:... And will GE shareholders be ok with not being in China?


This.

Corporations are legally held to account for shareholder interests. The company I work for, the CEO was ousted by shareholders going to court to force the company to fire him for incompetence.

Let's let that sink in. Rather than "voting with their money" and selling shares of a company they thought was poorly run to buy shares of better run companies, the shareholders were able to take the company to court to force action from the board of directors.

It's shareholder dividend and stock price optimization that drives business decisions at that level. Employees, communities, protecting company IP, pretty much everything else is at best secondary to driving stock prices and paying shareholder dividends. If you're nominally in charge of a publicly traded company if the benefits to the shareholders are marginally in favor of doing business in China and losing control over your IP, regardless of potential long-term harm to the company or the potential to positively reinforce bad business environments, then that is the course of action you have to take even if as the CEO you'd rather take the hit to your growth percentage (other companies that grow their profits faster will draw more stock purchases, some holding your stock might sell in order to buy competitors faster growing stock, reducing your companies overall value and stock value).

--

Now for full disclosure: In the case of the company I work for (or rather the company I'm contracted out to) the shareholders were probably right and the CEO in question was probably running [company redacted] in to the ground, so their court case may have ultimately protected my employment.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:50 am UTC

Trump administration continues to make everything bad about Obama, much worse. https://www.npr.org/2018/09/01/64379145 ... -lengthens
there are other factors that have slowed down the process. First, during the Obama administration, the citizenship application form doubled in size to 21 pages.

Then the Trump administration made the interview process even more rigorous and time-consuming, according to instructor Samuel Bianco.

"Students are coming back and they're talking about being asked about every single bit of information no matter how minute it may be in that application. And so yes, we feel the citizenship interview is tightening," he says.

Also the fact that the wait isn't evenly disbursed. Democratic areas have the longest waits.
The wait is longest in cities with large immigrant communities. In Washington D.C., it can take up to sixteen months; in New York City twenty-one months; Atlanta twenty-two months.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Zohar » Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:33 pm UTC

Can't wait to apply in November!!
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Sableagle » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:10 pm UTC

Of which country are you applying for citizenship, or are you waiting for the election results before you make up your mind?
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:26 pm UTC

iamspen wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:The US has a great bargaining position, and a fairly poor position of relative tariffs at present. It's very hard to imagine things turning out worse for the country as a whole.


You're forgetting that China is a single-party authoritarian state, and they ultimately don't have to give any fucks if they're on the crappy side of a trade war for 15 years because, at the end of the day, they can wait it out as long as they need to in order to come out on top.

If they want.


This is true, and it's a potential outcome if they decide they want to screw their economy for that long. I don't think they do, but ultimately, it's a guess based on reading people. There's a bit of risk there. Ultimately, it's a game of chicken, and we just happen to have the bigger car.

CorruptUser wrote:Are we talking about the same thing?

Hypothetical, I make lawnmowers in the US, which contain various parts but the most complicated is the engine.
I decide I can save money by manufacturing the lawnmower engines in China.
I spend a small fortune with Chinese company to set up a lawnmower engine factory and train a hundred workers in China.
The variable cost of each engine is $25, but I have to recoup the investment in the factory as well as engineering and design, so it's really $60 per engine.
A lawnmower factory mysteriously appears in the neighboring Chinese town, and they are paying only $30 for an indistinguishable but totally not my lawnmower engine.
The knockoff lawnmowers are now being imported to the US.

Yeah, I done goofed, and I have absolutely no one else to blame but myself.


Only in the sense that one has goofed by not locking one's car doors, allowing someone to steal everything in your car. Yeah, maybe you could have taken additional steps to not be stolen from(not manufacturing in China), but ultimately, the moral responsibility still rests with the person ripping you off. I'm all for taking such things into consideration when deciding where to locate a business, but it's fair to include such wrongdoing in our view of China.

It's even worse than that, because they impersonate you in many cases. I do a lot of board game business, and China's the manufacturer of many of them. It's quite common for them to be copied, often with inferior quality, and then sold at a vastly reduced price online as the legitimate thing. Consumers believe they are purchasing legitimate goods, and are put out about the lack of quality, which comes back on you, not the actual manufacturer. Now you've got additional support costs for dealing with their problems.

In some cases, such as selling via Amazon, people can buy a product from "you", and get a counterfeit copy. Depends on the details of the amazon inventorying. If it's got the same bar code, Amazon usually treats them as identical goods for fulfillment purposes. Now, if memory serves, Amazon has different warehousing options at additional cost if you want to handle fulfillment yourself, or pay more for dedicated space, but again, more money out of pocket because China can't play nice.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Zohar » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:31 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:Of which country are you applying for citizenship, or are you waiting for the election results before you make up your mind?

USA. If you receive a green card through marriage you can apply for citizenship three years after having received the greencard.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Yablo » Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:33 pm UTC

Zohar wrote:USA. If you receive a green card through marriage you can apply for citizenship three years after having received the greencard.

I understand the thought process behind a waiting period, but I would think a three-year wait might be a bit much.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Leovan » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:02 am UTC

Yablo wrote:
Zohar wrote:USA. If you receive a green card through marriage you can apply for citizenship three years after having received the greencard.

I understand the thought process behind a waiting period, but I would think a three-year wait might be a bit much.

Pretty quick actually if you compare to other Western Nations. I just got my Green card, so I'll be able to apply in three years. My wife in Switzerland would have had to wait five.
The problem is it took 1.5 years to get the green card, while my wife would need about a month to be allowed to live in Switzerland, and after we got married the Visa from student to resident in Switzerland was completely automatic and took 2 weeks. But Green card is good for ten years while my wife's permit was yearly. So the US is a lot nicer if we got divorced or she died etc.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:01 am UTC

Leovan wrote:So the US is a lot nicer if we got divorced or she died etc.


New idea for a murder mystery novel.

Foreign man marries American, wife dies under mysterious circumstances.

Plot twist, he has a job as a butler.
Plot twist, he didn't actually do it.
Plot twist, he was attempting to do it.
Plot twist, midway through the book it's revealed that the wife isn't dead, and she's framing him.
Plot twist, she's framing him in order to protect herself for when he does try to murder her.


And ok, I think I'm all out of twist. Recommendations?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby iamspen » Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:12 am UTC

Turns out, she's his sister AND his daughter.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby gd1 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:09 am UTC

iamspen wrote:Turns out, she's his sister AND his daughter.


It's a dream.

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