Scottish Independence

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kingofdreams
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby kingofdreams » Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:37 pm UTC

officially no exit polls are allowed

you gov thinks it 54-46 in favor of the unionists

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/sco ... dence-vote
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby sigsfried » Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:52 pm UTC

Thought it was just that none have been commissioned, it is much more expensive than a normal exit poll (where you know which constituencies are representative of typical marginal, Labour, Conservative, ... constituencies).

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby WilliamLehnsherr » Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:12 pm UTC

I expected to wake up and find out the results, but apparently polling only closed an hour ago. Dammit, Scotland. I want to know the outcome NOW!

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Newt » Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:19 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:
Anyway: The polls are open. An unprecedented 97% of eligible voters registered to vote. That alone is a major victory for democracy. That kind of turnout (registration is not turnout of course, but turnout will certainly be very high) is awesome. And it's anybody's guess what the result will be. The polls are dead even, and are probably less reliable than normal because so many people are voting for the first time.


I don't know, successfully seceding from a democracy if which they have legitimate representation seems like more of a mixed bag for democracy.

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby eSOANEM » Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:20 pm UTC

I too thought it was that none had been comissioned.

I think they're expecting to announce the result around breakfasttime.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby CannedCourage » Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:24 pm UTC

Considering staying up to watch the counts come in live...

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Djehutynakht » Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:05 am UTC

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sco ... s-29263022

The first results in have them at 54% No, 46% Yes.

Voter turnout at 89%.


So it looks like we might be trending more towards a "No".

The voter turnout was a bit lower than I thought.. it seems to range from 75% to 91% (which, I guess comparatively is still pretty impressive)

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Adacore » Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:10 am UTC

The regions that are reporting so far (with 'no' votes) are all very small. Orkney and Shetland were widely expected to vote 'no', the Western Islands and Clackmannanshire were expected to vote 'yes', I believe. It's certainly looking like 'no' will be the outcome, but it's early days.

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Giant Speck » Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:25 am UTC

I'm so used to the American media throwing maps and numbers right at your face when it comes to elections that I found it odd that I had to dig a bit to find some maps and data that wasn't in paragraph form.

BBC Map

Telegraph Map
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BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE BOUNCE

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Lazar » Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:37 am UTC

One issue is that apparently they're doing no proper exit poll.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby kingofdreams » Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:03 am UTC

Its frustrating how the councils are coming in with growing population, 5 councils all for union, and then dundee comes along and almost sets it back to 0
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Adacore » Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:27 am UTC

More results coming in, most of them seem to be leaning on the 'no' side of initial expectations, which were already for a slim 'no' victory.

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby curtis95112 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 3:34 am UTC

Why aren't they doing an exit poll?
I suppose vote fraud isn't a concern in the UK but still.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby CorruptUser » Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:02 am UTC

Well, looks like the Union is safe. For now.

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Dthen » Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:22 am UTC

Oh, hey, I didn't expect people to be discussing this just now for some reason. I've been following this via the BBC on iPlayer instead of sleeping. :s
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby kingofdreams » Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:26 am UTC

well reform time!
lets get some decentralization up in this piece.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Dthen » Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:08 am UTC

Well, that's that. No won. (Woo!)
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby TheGrammarBolshevik » Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:12 am UTC

As an American with no dog in this hunt, I was a bit disappointed that I didn't get to "witness history" or whatever. I had a bottle of Laphroaig set aside and everything!

Spoiler:
I still drank it.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Diadem » Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:21 am UTC

Well, that about wraps it up for Scot.

(terrible, terrible puns)

I'm not sure if I am disappointed. I didn't really have a strong opinion on this, but I would have liked to see history made. Besides, I do believe that ultimate small countries are better than big ones (as I have said repeatedly in this thread), and that a European integration project should be coupled with more decentralization, i.e.: in the bigger nations power should be moved away from national governments in both directions.

My predictions:
1) Very little will come about of the promises made by the no camp for more devolution.
2) There will be quite a bit of anti-Scottish backlash in England, resentment for almost leaving
3) People are always good at rationalizing their choices, so most people in Scotland will be happy that they have stayed, regardless of the first two points.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby kingofdreams » Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:31 am UTC

your cynicism warms my cockles

i think theres a little more sense about the government than its given credit for, if they don't want to revisit this issue in a decade they're going to have to push for meaningful reform now, and broad consensus amongst the talking heads suggests a push for federalization across the board.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby addams » Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:37 am UTC

I have not a clue.
You make such good points, Diadem.

I know I like things to be stable.
A stable partnership is nice.

How will Scotland exert herself, now?
Have The People a voice that will be listened to?

It the partnership under Review?
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Thesh » Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:41 am UTC

I was hoping they would leave so they could abandon the laws requiring 700ml bottles in favor of the much more sensible 750ml bottle size for whisky.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Envelope Generator » Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:43 am UTC

Diadem wrote: Besides, I do believe that ultimate small countries are better than big ones (as I have said repeatedly in this thread), and that a European integration project should be coupled with more decentralization, i.e.: in the bigger nations power should be moved away from national governments in both directions.


Small countries may be better but what matters in reality is that big ones are stronger. Will Russia move power away from its national government if we ask it nicely? Today it's unity that's needed, not fragmentation, in my opinion. (FWIW I had no horse, man or oats in this race.)
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby kingofdreams » Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:46 am UTC

Hopefully this will be the death-knell for the referendum of the UK's place in the EU. Despite the win I can't see Cameron surviving this.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Adacore » Fri Sep 19, 2014 5:56 am UTC

kingofdreams wrote:Hopefully this will be the death-knell for the referendum of the UK's place in the EU. Despite the win I can't see Cameron surviving this.

A 'yes' vote would've made Cameron, or at least the Tories, stronger, in the long run. Removing all the Labour seats in Scotland would've given the Tories a much stronger position in the UK government.

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby SlyReaper » Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:22 am UTC

kingofdreams wrote:Hopefully this will be the death-knell for the referendum of the UK's place in the EU. Despite the win I can't see Cameron surviving this.

Really? I don't see how he can possibly lose the next general election. He has no viable competitors.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby TheGrammarBolshevik » Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:28 am UTC

Thesh wrote:I was hoping they would leave so they could abandon the laws requiring 700ml bottles in favor of the much more sensible 750ml bottle size for whisky.

The 750ml bottle of Scotch on my shelf suggests that there is no such law...
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Adacore » Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:34 am UTC

SlyReaper wrote:
kingofdreams wrote:Hopefully this will be the death-knell for the referendum of the UK's place in the EU. Despite the win I can't see Cameron surviving this.

Really? I don't see how he can possibly lose the next general election. He has no viable competitors.

Labour is certainly still a viable competitor. Lib Dems and UKIP are not. Labour have held a solid lead in the polls since about 4 months into the coalition's term, although it's narrowed a little this year.

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby kingofdreams » Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:38 am UTC

SlyReaper wrote:
kingofdreams wrote:Hopefully this will be the death-knell for the referendum of the UK's place in the EU. Despite the win I can't see Cameron surviving this.

Really? I don't see how he can possibly lose the next general election. He has no viable competitors.


The man of the hour would appear to be Gordon Brown. Hes well-liked in Scotland, was invaluable in shifting momentum, was the figurehead for devo-max, and got really shafted for being in power during a global recession, he may be due for a comeback.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Thesh » Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:44 am UTC

TheGrammarBolshevik wrote:
Thesh wrote:I was hoping they would leave so they could abandon the laws requiring 700ml bottles in favor of the much more sensible 750ml bottle size for whisky.

The 750ml bottle of Scotch on my shelf suggests that there is no such law...


Do you live in the EU? In the US regulations forbid the sale of spirits in bottles other than one of the standard sizes, 50ml, 100ml, 200ml, 375ml, 750ml, 1000ml, and 1750ml. In Europe, they are 100ml, 200ml, 350ml, 500ml, 700ml, 1000ml, 1500ml, 1750ml, and 2000ml. The most popular size in the US is 750ml, and the most popular in Europe is 700ml. The vast majority of single malt is bottled at 700ml, and any Scotch whisky that is for sale in the US has to be specially bottled for export. This has the effect of limiting selection within the US, especially for limited bottlings.

http://www.diffordsguide.com/encycloped ... ttle-sizes
Summum ius, summa iniuria.

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Volcano99 » Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:47 am UTC

Congratulations to all Scots that practised democracy yesterday. Good luck with the negotiations with the central government!

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Diadem » Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:29 am UTC

I thought about this a bit more on my way to work, and I realized that perhaps I view this whole issue differently than most people. I am really a fan of European integration, and I realized that within my framework, having federal states within the European Union doesn't make much sense. If you do education, policy, social and fiscal policy at the state level, and defense, international policy and monetary policy at the European level, then what is there to do at the national level? Not very much at all. They might as well be done away with.

Of course if the UK leaves the EU then that whole pictures changes. That would suck for Scotland, voting to stay in the Union only to promptly have the rest of the Union commit suicide, and take you with them.

Thesh wrote:Do you live in the EU? In the US regulations forbid the sale of spirits in bottles other than one of the standard sizes, 50ml, 100ml, 200ml, 375ml, 750ml, 1000ml, and 1750ml. In Europe, they are 100ml, 200ml, 350ml, 500ml, 700ml, 1000ml, 1500ml, 1750ml, and 2000ml.

The US uses the metric system for this? Huh.

Envelope Generator wrote:
Diadem wrote: Besides, I do believe that ultimate small countries are better than big ones (as I have said repeatedly in this thread), and that a European integration project should be coupled with more decentralization, i.e.: in the bigger nations power should be moved away from national governments in both directions.

Small countries may be better but what matters in reality is that big ones are stronger. Will Russia move power away from its national government if we ask it nicely? Today it's unity that's needed, not fragmentation, in my opinion. (FWIW I had no horse, man or oats in this race.)

If Russia is your example of a successful large country, then that is very strong proof for my statement. Russia is NOT a successful nation. Sure it is powerful, but it is not a good place to live.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby TheGrammarBolshevik » Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:35 am UTC

Thesh wrote:
TheGrammarBolshevik wrote:
Thesh wrote:I was hoping they would leave so they could abandon the laws requiring 700ml bottles in favor of the much more sensible 750ml bottle size for whisky.

The 750ml bottle of Scotch on my shelf suggests that there is no such law...


Do you live in the EU? In the US regulations forbid the sale of spirits in bottles other than one of the standard sizes, 50ml, 100ml, 200ml, 375ml, 750ml, 1000ml, and 1750ml. In Europe, they are 100ml, 200ml, 350ml, 500ml, 700ml, 1000ml, 1500ml, 1750ml, and 2000ml. The most popular size in the US is 750ml, and the most popular in Europe is 700ml. The vast majority of single malt is bottled at 700ml, and any Scotch whisky that is for sale in the US has to be specially bottled for export. This has the effect of limiting selection within the US, especially for limited bottlings.

http://www.diffordsguide.com/encycloped ... ttle-sizes

I thought you were saying that they weren't allowed to do 700ml bottles, not that they have to do special bottlings for it.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Envelope Generator » Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:45 am UTC

Diadem wrote:
Envelope Generator wrote:
Diadem wrote: Besides, I do believe that ultimate small countries are better than big ones (as I have said repeatedly in this thread), and that a European integration project should be coupled with more decentralization, i.e.: in the bigger nations power should be moved away from national governments in both directions.

Small countries may be better but what matters in reality is that big ones are stronger. Will Russia move power away from its national government if we ask it nicely? Today it's unity that's needed, not fragmentation, in my opinion. (FWIW I had no horse, man or oats in this race.)

If Russia is your example of a successful large country, then that is very strong proof for my statement. Russia is NOT a successful nation. Sure it is powerful, but it is not a good place to live.


Russia is being acutely and visibly successful, on its own terms, precisely because quality of life and democracy are simply disregarded. The smaller bits Europe divides into, the easier those bits are to manipulate, and it is highly advantageous for Russia to cause discord in Europe. If Russia did not support the Yes movement, it should have. (disclaimer: I am not attacking the idea of Scottish independence, and I don't oppose it as such, and I'm not trying to discredit those who support it by trying to paint them as Russian agents.)
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Alexius » Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:52 am UTC

Thesh wrote:
TheGrammarBolshevik wrote:
Thesh wrote:I was hoping they would leave so they could abandon the laws requiring 700ml bottles in favor of the much more sensible 750ml bottle size for whisky.

The 750ml bottle of Scotch on my shelf suggests that there is no such law...


Do you live in the EU? In the US regulations forbid the sale of spirits in bottles other than one of the standard sizes, 50ml, 100ml, 200ml, 375ml, 750ml, 1000ml, and 1750ml. In Europe, they are 100ml, 200ml, 350ml, 500ml, 700ml, 1000ml, 1500ml, 1750ml, and 2000ml. The most popular size in the US is 750ml, and the most popular in Europe is 700ml. The vast majority of single malt is bottled at 700ml, and any Scotch whisky that is for sale in the US has to be specially bottled for export. This has the effect of limiting selection within the US, especially for limited bottlings.

http://www.diffordsguide.com/encycloped ... ttle-sizes

So in that case an independent Scotland would have had to keep the 700ml bottles unless it left the EU (which no-one really wanted).

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby eSOANEM » Fri Sep 19, 2014 8:02 am UTC

Diadem wrote:My predictions:
1) Very little will come about of the promises made by the no camp for more devolution.
2) There will be quite a bit of anti-Scottish backlash in England, resentment for almost leaving
3) People are always good at rationalizing their choices, so most people in Scotland will be happy that they have stayed, regardless of the first two points.


David Cameron's brought up the West Lothian question so it looks to me like the solution he'd be proposing would devolving more power to Scotland but also devolving a similar amount of power to England (with Westminster effectively becoming a federal over-government).

Not that what he says matters. The conservatives aren't going to be in government much longer.

I suspect most people in England won't be angry at the Scots and that most will either be glad they didn't leave or not care.

kingofdreams wrote:
SlyReaper wrote:
kingofdreams wrote:Hopefully this will be the death-knell for the referendum of the UK's place in the EU. Despite the win I can't see Cameron surviving this.

Really? I don't see how he can possibly lose the next general election. He has no viable competitors.


The man of the hour would appear to be Gordon Brown. Hes well-liked in Scotland, was invaluable in shifting momentum, was the figurehead for devo-max, and got really shafted for being in power during a global recession, he may be due for a comeback.


Gordon Brown would be a terrible move for labour. He may be well-liked in Scotland but England remembers him as, at best, that ineffectual guy who took over from Blair in the recession. They're best off having him leading the labour campaign in Scotland and giving him a cabinet post, but having him as leading would be a bad idea.

Diadem wrote:Of course if the UK leaves the EU then that whole pictures changes. That would suck for Scotland, voting to stay in the Union only to promptly have the rest of the Union commit suicide, and take you with them.


With Scotland staying part of the union, an eu referendum is much more likely to keep us in that it would with an independent Scotland.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby Vahir » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:43 pm UTC

To the idea of a backlash against the scots- Given what I've seen since the 1995 referendum in Quebec, I don't think that's a real issue. Some people might whine about how ungrateful the scots are, but I think most English people will just be relieved the whole mess is over.

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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby addams » Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:47 am UTC

Envelope Generator wrote:Russia is being acutely and visibly successful, on its own terms, precisely because quality of life and democracy are simply disregarded. The smaller bits Europe divides into, the easier those bits are to manipulate, and it is highly advantageous for Russia to cause discord in Europe. If Russia did not support the Yes movement, it should have. (disclaimer: I am not attacking the idea of Scottish independence, and I don't oppose it as such, and I'm not trying to discredit those who support it by trying to paint them as Russian agents.)

I think it is a little unfair to paint Russia as Yes to an Independent Scotland.
I would expect most Russians to be even less interested than most Americans and that is Darn Uninterested.

The Idea of Russian Agents working in the BackGround and UnderGround in Scotland is Hysterical.
To do What, again?

The Scots have grievances that go back to before that SS period Russia had.
The Scots are being heard around The World. Not for the First Time.

Maybe this time The World will pay attention.
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It's not good for The People.

The People?
What is that?
Socialist Talk?

The problems are about important stuff.
It's about Money! People need money.

Fish don't use money.
Fish are used as money.

It is complicated stuff.
What the Hell does Russia have to do with it?

How 20th Century of you.
Did you not read what the European Leadership of NATO wrote?

I thought it was funny.
They can't prepare to fight Russia.
Russia is no Threat. Poor NATO.
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby kingofdreams » Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:05 pm UTC

resolution was supposed to be in place friday, it is in fact going to be submitted monday, does that constitute a broken promise?
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Re: Scottish Independence

Postby addams » Sun Sep 21, 2014 3:37 am UTC

kingofdreams wrote:resolution was supposed to be in place friday, it is in fact going to be submitted monday, does that constitute a broken promise?

No.
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
by mr. Oscar Wilde.

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Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.


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