Australian Election — Landslide

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yurell
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Australian Election — Landslide

Postby yurell » Sat Sep 07, 2013 10:44 am UTC

So the Liberal-National coalition has won a landside victory in the House of Representatives (Lower House) in Australia today, winning a predicted 88/150 seats with more than half the votes counted. The now-leaving government, the ALP, are looking to win 58 seats, with the remainder falling to the Greens (one seat of Melbourne) and other Independents.

The uncertainty on those seats was roughly ±6 earlier tonight, and is now probably closer to ±3.

Edit: I should also add that this means Tony Abbott, leader of the Liberal Party, will be our new Prime Minister.
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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby Diadem » Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:11 am UTC

If I recall correctly the ALP spent the last few months infighting, correct?

Makes a result like this rather expected.
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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby Gelsamel » Sat Sep 07, 2013 2:28 pm UTC

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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby Kulantan » Sat Sep 07, 2013 3:22 pm UTC

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-07/c ... ax/4943318

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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby CorruptUser » Sat Sep 07, 2013 3:36 pm UTC

So umm... What kind of policies do they intend to enact?

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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby K-R » Sat Sep 07, 2013 3:43 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:If I recall correctly the ALP spent the last few months infighting, correct?

Makes a result like this rather expected.

The ALP actually fared better than expected, anticipating now only losing 15-20 seats instead of 25-30.

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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby jestingrabbit » Sat Sep 07, 2013 4:49 pm UTC

K-R wrote:
Diadem wrote:If I recall correctly the ALP spent the last few months infighting, correct?

Makes a result like this rather expected.

The ALP actually fared better than expected, anticipating now only losing 15-20 seats instead of 25-30.


So, they maybe wont learn their lesson then... super.
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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby yurell » Sun Sep 08, 2013 12:03 am UTC

And balance of power in the senate seems to be held by independents. Of the 76 seats:
LNP: 33
ALP: 25
Greens: 10
Liberal Democratic Party: 1 (NSW)
Palmer United Party: 2 (QLD & TAS)
Nick Xenophon Group: 1 (SA)
Family First: 1 (SA)
Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party: 1 (VIC)
Australian Sports Party: 1 (WA)
DLP: 1 (continuing)
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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby CorruptUser » Sun Sep 08, 2013 12:20 am UTC

As far as I can tell, Tony Abbott, the new PM, is somewhat opposed to abortion, is a climate change 'skeptic' but thinks 'something' should be done for political reasons, and that's about all I can find. What's he plan to do for the economy?

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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby Kazza3 » Sun Sep 08, 2013 1:41 am UTC

I wouldn't call it a landslide- the ALP fared considerably better than the predictions of a bloodbath (no seats left in Western Sydney or Qld, etc) we've been hearing. Still, a decisive Coalition victory, and Labor's primary vote is lower than it's been for 100 years.
And yes, it's entirely unsurprising, with lots of Labor infighting and leadership changes in a minority govt situation (distracting from many policies they managed to pass which were actually well liked), and an aggressive opposition in Abbott. 

I'd take those senate figures with a grain of salt for now, I know 70% or sp counted, but the senate's unpredictable.

It's interesting that only 80% of the vote when to the ALP and Coalition, 20% to other parties and independents would've been unthinkable 20 years ago.
The Greens have around 8.5% of the vote, which is down (unsurprising given the trend towards conservatives), yet they'be managed to hold Bandt's seat of Melbourne, impressive given that last time he only won it on Lib preferences, this time he's done it in his own right. They also look to have returned some key senators.
The surprise is the Palmer United Party, headed by Clive Palmer, a Queensland maverick mining magnate & multi-millionaire. His efforts during the campaign have largely been seen as a joke, given his personal projects such as building the Titanic II & lifesize dinosaur models on a golf course; and his lack of stated policies & claims that he'd win every seat & become PM. But somehow he's managed to get 10% of the vote in most Qld seats (and some in many others around the country), he looks to win the seat of Fairfax, and will probably get a senator up too. Sigh. He'll be unpredictable.


The Coalition and ALP are very similar, policy-wise. Abbott's stated goals are to reduce the deficit and improve the economy, including sacking 12000 public servants & cutting foreign aid spending. I'd expect more cuts after the audit, but given the fiscal situation there probably won't be masses of company tax cuts either. On the other hand, he's planning a rather expensive and generous Paid Parental Leave scheme, for which he's criticised by many on his own side. He intends to get rid of the carbon tax/emissions trading scheme, and replace it with 'direct action', ie going and actively planting trees, etc, which is considered within the field to have very little chance of meeting out 5% carbon reduction commitment. He's also getting rid of the Clean Energy Commission (or something like that) and is probably cutting renewables in general. He wants to 'stop the boats'- asylum seekers trying to travel to Australia by boat from Indonesia (mostly refugees from Iran, Afghanisatan, Sri Lanka) has been a large political issue, partially due to the reasonable issue of drownings at sea due to the rickety boats people smugglers put them, but there's also a degree of xenophobia in Abbott's talk of waves of possibly dangerous illegal immigrants arriving here. The ALP and Coalition have been trying to out-cruel each other on this issue, sending them to Nauru and an island off PNG for indefinite detention, restricting their rights, turning boats back, etc.
Oh, and he's keeping Labor's education reforms, but only committing for a few years, and instead of Labor's National Broadband Network (fibre-optic to almost every home), he's doing a cheaper version with fibre optic to local nodes, which you then pay to connect to via the existing (dodgy) copper network, only a 10th as fast (or so) as Labor's.

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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby Thesh » Sun Sep 08, 2013 1:49 am UTC

Kazza3 wrote:He wants to 'stop the boats'- asylum seekers trying to travel to Australia by boat from Indonesia (mostly refugees from Iran, Afghanisatan, Sri Lanka) has been a large political issue, partially due to the reasonable issue of drownings at sea due to the rickety boats people smugglers put them, but there's also a degree of xenophobia in Abbott's talk of waves of possibly dangerous illegal immigrants arriving here. The ALP and Coalition have been trying to out-cruel each other on this issue, sending them to Nauru and an island off PNG for indefinite detention, restricting their rights, turning boats back, etc.


So, basically business as usual for wealthier countries?
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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby Kazza3 » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:03 am UTC

Yup.

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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby Carlington » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:25 am UTC

This result is actually a lot more interesting, politically speaking, than just the Coalition winning in a landslide. With about half the Senate votes counted now, it seems quite unlikely that either major party will control the Senate. The balance of power belonging to cross benchers is dangerous, especially with Senators like Palmer's crew and Bob Katter (for Christ's sake!)
Palmer seems to be pushing a pretty solid stance in opposition to major parties and established politicians, so he's unlikely to be helpful to either side in particular. The Family First Party can be counted on to align with the LNP. The others are too unpredictable, and they don't seem to line up closely enough with either major party's policies to be able to say with any certainty who they'll work with.
The Greens hold ten seats, which can only be a good thing, in my opinion.

What it all breaks down to, though, is that Abbott's Liberal Party is going to have a tough time pushing any legislation that's too conservative through the Senate. On top of that, he's hinted before that if the Senate is hostile, he may push for a double-dissolution, which would muddy things further and add to the farce that is modern Australian politics.

Despite falling far to the left of any major party this election, I am quite okay, personally, with the LNP's victory. Labor needed something to tell them to get their act together, the Coalition can't do too much damage because of the balance in the Senate, and the Prime Ministership is something of a poisoned chalice this election anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an even bigger swing towards minor parties and independents like Xenophon next election (which might be sooner than any of us think)
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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby Kazza3 » Sun Sep 08, 2013 3:01 am UTC

Agreed. I'm not sure about the double dissolution or Senate hostility (though at least he won't have straight control)- based on the current numbers, you've got 33 Coalition for a repeal, 35 Labor + Greens against- but all 8 others are for a repeal.
Then again, that Senate only sits midway through next year- Abbott says he wants to get rid of the carbon tax immediately, in the Labor/Greens controlled Senate, and that Labor should back down from the carbon tax and let it be repealed, else there'll be a double d. I wonder if he'd actually go through with that.

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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby jestingrabbit » Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:06 am UTC

I wonder if the incoming members are more supportive of Abbott or Turnbull. Wonder how much media blather there'll be about that.
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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby Carlington » Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:30 am UTC

I honestly can't see the Liberal Party changing leadership during this term. After all of the harping on about "Labor's Faceless Men" and so on and so forth, they must surely realise that the only thing they have going for them is the fact that they present a united front with no infighting.
It interests me that the Coalition altogether only pulled 45% of the vote. The majority of Australians didn't want them in - they just honestly couldn't agree on a better option. It's a sad state of affairs.
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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby jestingrabbit » Sun Sep 08, 2013 10:13 am UTC

Carlington wrote:I honestly can't see the Liberal Party changing leadership during this term. After all of the harping on about "Labor's Faceless Men" and so on and so forth, they must surely realise that the only thing they have going for them is the fact that they present a united front with no infighting.
It interests me that the Coalition altogether only pulled 45% of the vote. The majority of Australians didn't want them in - they just honestly couldn't agree on a better option. It's a sad state of affairs.


Yeah, it was very much "a pox on all your houses" sort of result. 20% vote for minor parties, Xenophon got 1.8 quotas in SA, and it looks like every state is sending at least one minor party rep to the senate.

I agree, this term they'd have to be insane to change horses. But three years down the track - the repeal of the ets doesn't lead to a plummet in your utilities costs, employment is still hovering around 5.5 to 6, there are fewer services and a budget that still doesn't balance - people will probably still reelect the LNP, but with a reduced majority. Then what?

And that's not even a harsh scenario. A harsh scenario would be LNP austerity pushing the country solidly into recession, LNP plays its one note "remove labour laws" and they could be looking pretty bad in 3 years, so long as the labs get their shit together.

In either of those scenarios, Turnbull would have to start sharpening his knife.
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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby Larry » Sun Sep 08, 2013 12:10 pm UTC

I remember noticing the swing %s during the coverage, Labor was waaaaay down, but the libs were only up a little bit. Looks like a lot of people went minors & independents. Palmer has been in the right place at the right time, it seems. I'm predicting we're on our way away from the 2.5 party system, and in time Katter and Palmer's parties will gain a bit more legitimacy and make for some really interesting preferences & coalitions.

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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby Carlington » Sun Sep 08, 2013 1:47 pm UTC

(Oh, god, please, anybody but Palmer and Katter!)

I read some interesting commentary not too long ago, damned if I can remember where though, to provide a source. The gist of it was that the younger generation that's just now coming to reach voting age, being the first sizeable group of voters to have grown up with the internet, is much more likely to vote for a small party that is focussed around one or two key issues. The author of the piece was firmly of the opinion that we're set to shift to a Parliament made up of tens of small parties, each party holding ten or less seats, with the representatives from each party taking a firm and pre-established stance on some issues, and making a conscience vote on others. If that happened, it would potentially be brilliant for democracy in this country - but it could also turn out disastrously.
I mean, personally, I doubt it's likely. Real change never happens. It'd be nice though.
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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby The Mighty Thesaurus » Sun Sep 08, 2013 2:55 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:Real change never happens

That's why we still follow the Code of Hammurabi.
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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby Carlington » Sun Sep 08, 2013 3:04 pm UTC

You are misreading me, and I feel like it's deliberate.
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Re: Australian Election — Landslide

Postby jestingrabbit » Sun Sep 08, 2013 3:32 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:You are misreading me, and I feel like it's deliberate.


Almost certainly.

I doubt that we're heading in the direction of large scale fragmentation. Consider the fact that the labs and libs have nationwide organisations with penetration into just about every community around the country. Its hard to just create that out of whole cloth, and harder still if you don't have an important issue or set of beliefs to form it around. So, for that to happen, a lot would have to change.

Anyway, regarding Palmer, I'm surprised no one has come forward with this quote.

'You know, Rupert Murdoch's wife Wendi Deng is a Chinese spy, and that's been right across the world,'' Palmer frothed at a gobsmacked Karl Stefanovic on Channel 9's Today show.

''She's been spying on Rupert for years, giving money back to Chinese intelligence. Read the truth about it.

''She was trained in southern China. I'm telling you the truth, I'm telling you the truth.''


And this wasn't something he said once at a bar when he was drunk. This is what he said on national television. His use of parliamentary privilege should make for some wild conspiracy fodder in the years to come.
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