Gun Control

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addams
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Re: Gun Control

Postby addams » Sat Jan 04, 2014 6:45 am UTC

That is so sweet.
You think that you, yourself, might not have had the maturity and self control to carry a weapon.

I might like you to carry a gun for me, if it had to be carried.
The self control and maturity components are important.

No one is so good that stupid shit can't happen.

I don' like having the stupid things around.
They are concentrated weirdness.

I Know I Am Not A Good Shot!
If I miss, That can be bothersome.
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Re: Gun Control

Postby Tyndmyr » Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:39 pm UTC

Choboman wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:These views are not exclusive, and if both are true, would indicate the presence of a self-perpetuating cycle.

However, there is the issue that schools do not uniformly ban guns, and thus, we have a pretty good control group in this case. Yet, schools that allow guns do not seem to have a problem with school shootings. Now sure, it's a low probability event, so this correlation could still arise by chance, but it definitely does not support the hypothesis that gun bans are helping at all.

In general gun violence, there are a number of factors, sure, but school shootings do not seem to share the same factors as general gun violence, exactly. For instance, gang and drug involvement are huge indicators for general gun violence(and indeed, violence in general), but for mass shootings, it seems to be almost exclusively a case of untreated mental illness. Poverty, likewise, is correlated with general violence, but does not seem to be a huge factor for mass shootings.

It would seem that to get meaningful data, you have to address mass shootings seperately from generalized violence, and that again seperately from suicide, since they do not entirely share risk factors and causes.

I wasn't aware of schools that allow students to carry on the grounds. To be honest, it's hard for me to wrap my mind around that one. I vaguely remember what an irresponsible and trouble-making little shit I was as a teenager, and the idea of a thousand mini-me's packed into a building and all packing heat gives me shivers.


Carrying permits are typically limited to adults, so students carrying is really only a thing for older students(colleges and universities), but teachers, security guards, principles, etc carrying is not that strange.

States that allow loaded weapons to be carried by adults on school property: Alabama, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Texas, Rhode Island, Utah, Wyoming. I am aware of no incidents whatsoever in which a permitted weapon was used in a school shooting, but they have been used to stop several.

I would agree that general gun violence is a separate issue from mass shootings. And while mass shootings are certainly dramatic and attention-grabbing, in the bigger scheme they're not the real [statistically significant] problem.


Sure. I mean, we can definitely address both of them, but the lumping the mass shootings into gun violence mostly is about sensationalism, not problem solving.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby johnie104 » Sun Jan 05, 2014 12:05 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
Choboman wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:These views are not exclusive, and if both are true, would indicate the presence of a self-perpetuating cycle.

However, there is the issue that schools do not uniformly ban guns, and thus, we have a pretty good control group in this case. Yet, schools that allow guns do not seem to have a problem with school shootings. Now sure, it's a low probability event, so this correlation could still arise by chance, but it definitely does not support the hypothesis that gun bans are helping at all.

In general gun violence, there are a number of factors, sure, but school shootings do not seem to share the same factors as general gun violence, exactly. For instance, gang and drug involvement are huge indicators for general gun violence(and indeed, violence in general), but for mass shootings, it seems to be almost exclusively a case of untreated mental illness. Poverty, likewise, is correlated with general violence, but does not seem to be a huge factor for mass shootings.

It would seem that to get meaningful data, you have to address mass shootings seperately from generalized violence, and that again seperately from suicide, since they do not entirely share risk factors and causes.

I wasn't aware of schools that allow students to carry on the grounds. To be honest, it's hard for me to wrap my mind around that one. I vaguely remember what an irresponsible and trouble-making little shit I was as a teenager, and the idea of a thousand mini-me's packed into a building and all packing heat gives me shivers.


Carrying permits are typically limited to adults, so students carrying is really only a thing for older students(colleges and universities), but teachers, security guards, principles, etc carrying is not that strange.

States that allow loaded weapons to be carried by adults on school property: Alabama, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Texas, Rhode Island, Utah, Wyoming. I am aware of no incidents whatsoever in which a permitted weapon was used in a school shooting, but they have been used to stop several.


Interesting. Do you have a source for this? I'd be interested in how the school-shooting was stopped in that case.
Tyndmyr wrote:
I would agree that general gun violence is a separate issue from mass shootings. And while mass shootings are certainly dramatic and attention-grabbing, in the bigger scheme they're not the real [statistically significant] problem.

Sure. I mean, we can definitely address both of them, but the lumping the mass shootings into gun violence mostly is about sensationalism, not problem solving.

I agree.In 2010 in the USA there were 11078 homicides by gun and 19392 suicides by gun. The thing about suicide attempts is that in a lot of cases they don't try again if the first attempt fails (don't have a source for this, but I remember it reading it somewhere). The problem then with suicide by gun, is that such an attempt rarely fails. Once you've shot yourself in the face you probably don't come back.
If you don't have a gun lying around, the change that you will commit suicide on a whim decreases significantly (Correlation between gun-ownership and suicide-rate).
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Re: Gun Control

Postby Tyndmyr » Sun Jan 05, 2014 6:49 pm UTC

johnie104 wrote:Interesting. Do you have a source for this? I'd be interested in how the school-shooting was stopped in that case.


There are multiple events. A partial list can be found [url="http://www.buzzfeed.com/ryanhatesthis/10-potential-mass-shootings-that-were-stopped-by-someone-wit"]here[/url]. Typically, mass shooters either end up shot or committing suicide.

Oddly enough, it seems that even the shooter's odds of survival are better when quickly detained by someone armed. If given time, a lot of them commit suicide.

Tyndmyr wrote:
I would agree that general gun violence is a separate issue from mass shootings. And while mass shootings are certainly dramatic and attention-grabbing, in the bigger scheme they're not the real [statistically significant] problem.

Sure. I mean, we can definitely address both of them, but the lumping the mass shootings into gun violence mostly is about sensationalism, not problem solving.

I agree.In 2010 in the USA there were 11078 homicides by gun and 19392 suicides by gun. The thing about suicide attempts is that in a lot of cases they don't try again if the first attempt fails (don't have a source for this, but I remember it reading it somewhere). The problem then with suicide by gun, is that such an attempt rarely fails. Once you've shot yourself in the face you probably don't come back.
If you don't have a gun lying around, the change that you will commit suicide on a whim decreases significantly (Correlation between gun-ownership and suicide-rate).


Sort of. Thing is, this isn't a gun specific effect...it's whatever culturally accepted suicide methods exist. Sure, if you stop someone from committing suicide, odds are pretty good that the individual will not do so again. So, intervention is definitely important.

However, a solution as simple as "ban all the guns, and suicide will diminish" clearly fails to predict outcomes such as the high suicide rate in Japan, where guns are very rare. Why? Well, here, where guns are a strong part of culture, suicide is often reported in news as happening with a gun, and it's a popular choice for fiction depictions of the same. In Japan, standing in front of trains is a culturally normal means of suicide. It's also pretty friggin' lethal(90% death rate, pretty comparable to firearms, and like them, even survival tends to be messy)...but it's statistically not very common at all in the US.

No doubt if you ban guns, or put up guard rails around tracks, etc, it'll make a difference...but eventually, the culture will change. Suicides will be reported in some other manner, even if the frequency is lower, because the media thrives on negativity, and fiction will use whatever means are seen as normal.

In some parts of the world, pesticide ingestion is the preferred method. Finland, having a particular problem with a specific pesticide, highly restricted it, and over the long term, substitution rates approximated 100%, leading them to conclude that addressing suicide by restricting specific methods was ineffective.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby addams » Mon Jan 06, 2014 5:17 am UTC

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/story?secti ... id=9382241

They had a good old fashioned shoot out and the are both going to be fine.
See? People are not so bad. Guns don't add much danger.

A little. People are not so bad. People Are clumsy.

edit:
http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/story?secti ... id=9382250
See?? She was hit by wildfire. Clumsiness.
The people in the shoot out are fine.

The poor innocent woman was shot in the Ass.

http://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2014/01/03/ ... 388784051/
See??
We need to outlaw clumsy.
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

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Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
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Re: Gun Control

Postby eran_rathan » Mon Jan 06, 2014 12:45 pm UTC

Anecdote for sure, but when I was in high school in NH 1995-1999, it was not uncommon to have a gun rack, with long gun, in the back of one's truck - at least during hunting season.

Also, my high school had a shooting range, and regularly had firearms training classes run by the local National Guard, which may have had some bearing on the possession of firearms on campus.
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Re: Gun Control

Postby Hemmers » Tue Apr 29, 2014 4:59 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:However, there is the issue that schools do not uniformly ban guns, and thus, we have a pretty good control group in this case. Yet, schools that allow guns do not seem to have a problem with school shootings. Now sure, it's a low probability event, so this correlation could still arise by chance, but it definitely does not support the hypothesis that gun bans are helping at all.

In general gun violence, there are a number of factors, sure, but school shootings do not seem to share the same factors as general gun violence, exactly. For instance, gang and drug involvement are huge indicators for general gun violence(and indeed, violence in general), but for mass shootings, it seems to be almost exclusively a case of untreated mental illness. Poverty, likewise, is correlated with general violence, but does not seem to be a huge factor for mass shootings.

It would seem that to get meaningful data, you have to address mass shootings seperately from generalized violence, and that again seperately from suicide, since they do not entirely share risk factors and causes.


And even then I think your use of "mass shootings" is too broad - within that you have spree shootings and planned shootings/killings. It's something I've noticed between UK and US events is that the 3 major UK mass shootings (Hungerford, Dunblane and Cumbria, of which Dunblane was a primary school), they were cases of an individual simply going off the rails - spree shootings in the simplest sense - going to a school or high street and opening fire.

By contrast whilst there have certainly been "random" spree shootings in the US, many US shootings seem to involve a great deal of planning.
Consider Columbine - Harris and Klebold planned how to get access to firearms from their parents. Moreover they made their own pipe bombs and smoke bombs. It wasn't exactly a spur-of-the-moment thing.
Seung-Hui Cho of Virginia Tech infamy posted a package with a manifesto, self portraits, videos and media to NBC shortly before he started the shooting, whilst investigators found Adam Lanza (Sandy Hook) had somewhat of an obsession/fascination with previous mass shootings and had worked up a substantial amount of research on the subject with a "score board" of major massacres.

Similarly the "Washington Sniper" involved modifying a car rather than just walking into a shopping centre with something semi-automatic.

The largest "school massacre" was the Bath School Disaster where a member of the school board stuffed the walls with explosive under the guise of doing "maintenance", and had additionally prepared a car bomb to kill the rescuers who came to dig children out the rubble. Not a shooting, but heavily planned.

Of course, such events are thankfully rare, and the 3 UK shootings* - roughly spaced at 1/decade as it happens, don't present a particularly significant data set. In the US there's also a particular grey area in respect of school shootings because a lot of straight up 1-2 victim murders get counted as school shootings because they happened to take place on school/college grounds but are very much general violence not massacres, but their classification gets muddied by chance of their location, which then gets locked down in case it's the start of a spree shooting.

I've always found it an interesting observation that major shootings in the UK - and indeed the Australian Port Arthur Massacre - were very spontaneous, but the US seems to get a lot of planned attacks, which again affects how you address the issue. Suicides need one response, general and socioeconomic (often gang-related) based violence - muggings, turf wars, etc need another. Spree shootings are different again, and separate to them are the planned killings, which in start to cross paths with "lone-wolf" terrorist attacks in terms of planning, execution and how you're going to try and intervene during the planning phase and prevent them.


*We're much more used to bombs going off due to the historic Irish troubles. Sometimes targeted at politicians, sometimes car bombs parked in busy markets...

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Re: Gun Control

Postby addams » Mon May 26, 2014 3:16 pm UTC

Gun Control Rant:
Spoiler:
AlRight!! You Win!!
This is a Dangerous Fucking Country.
We Need Guns To Protect Us From One Another!!

You Win!
I have not wanted nor used a Gun in years and years and years.

(oh, There has been the occasional,
"I want to hold it.", moment.

Guns are an expression of our Creative and Technological KnowHow.)



I have been seriously considering a Relationship with a Gun.
(Fuck. Fuckity, Fuck. Fuck.)

I have been seriously considering a Relationship with a Gun.
Yes. I know what Flavor I want.

Do you know how much trouble the darned things are?
No Mindless Moments. It becomes My Keys on Steroids.

(Fuck) If I have one, I will fucking Use! It!
That is one of the issues I must give some careful consideration.

Now; I have to find out about the Fucking PaperWork!
Damn It! What is Wrong with US!! Why are we so Scary??
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
by mr. Oscar Wilde.

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They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Brace » Mon May 26, 2014 3:54 pm UTC

This post had objectionable content.
Last edited by Brace on Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:50 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gun Control

Postby addams » Tue May 27, 2014 5:02 am UTC

Brace wrote:*hugs* At least you respect it for what it is, and the gravity it carries to own one. I'm sorry you feel you have to subject yourself to that level of stress.

Thank you, Brace.

It is nice to feel understood.
Sometimes we are given the choice between two evils.

I have been balancing evils.
What is heavier?

I am beginning to think it is lighter to take definitive action.
Don't worry. This is not a Werid-O manifesto.

No 9mm for me. That machine is too heavy.
Even a bad shot can kill a man with one of those.

Besides; Do you know what one of those does to my arm?
To say nothing of my relationship with any neighbors I might have.

What do I want to shoot?
Nothing to kill.

Like a swat on the butt gets a childs attention.
I like taking out the windshield.

Not with a perching blow.
With an oblique blow that takes it Out.

I think it is so funny.
"I asked you to leave."
"Your car still runs. Leave."

The ding dongs don't often have guns.
They usually shoot off their mouths.

That's fine in Town.
Not in my home.

"Go away or I will shoot."
I can say those words;
I need to practice making them mean something.

What do you think?
Windsheald. Left leg. Right foot.

I'll be all out of bullets.
Damn it! I am a crap shot!
I might really Hurt someone. (fuck)

I guess I could practice up a bit.
If I get a reputation for being a good shot....

That will Never! happen.
I know better.

I could get a reputation as a lousy shot that will shoot.
That is a scary thing.

Friend or Foe?
It does not matter.
In Range? is the correct question.

I was told, "You can't hit the broad side of a Barn."
We tested it one time.

It's true. We could not find the bullet hole.
I missed the Broad Side of a Barn.

If I was mad at you and had a gun,
You might be pretty safe.
Your friends might be in Grave Danger.

I know. A person should not Joke about such a serious matter.
Having one is a life style choice.

For me it means I treat my personal things nearly the same as I do now.
Only; More so. It, simply, requires more steady, responsible behavior.

No Mindless Moments.
I am not into Mindlessness, anyway.
I think Mindfulness is best.

Of Course! I let my mind wander.
It can not wander about some things.

Where my Keys are and where my Gun is are two things I must know.

EDIT:
How? How to explain this.
It's funny.

As I was standing there listening to the man explain what is available and what is Not available for purchase, I was thinking. I couldn't help it.
Make a graph.
X is Gun.
Y is Amo.

What is available?
No Amo for small guns.

That is so funny.
It is possible to buy all the small caliber handguns a person can carry.
It is not possible to buy Amo.

He was telling me what I can have.
I can have large Amo and large guns.

9mm? Yes! Loads.
357? Yes! Loads.

38? Gun" Yes. Amo? No.
380? Gun? Yes. Amo? No.
22?! Gun? Yes. Amo? No.

As I stood there I could see where this was going.
At one end we have guns and no Amo. Small Guns: No Amo.
At the other end we have Amo and no guns. Large Amo: No Guns.

In the middle where X and Y cross, we have 9mm and 357's.
That is funny.

It's a Conspiracy! They want us to use large caliber against one another!
On my way home I was thinking about what Jethro and Company say about "Them".

Of course, I think it is simple physics and markets. I might be wrong.
You can buy armor pircing Amo for ground to Air. You can't find a gun.
You can buy small guns and can't find Amo. So darned funny.

Get a Gun and Smash a finger or a toe of your target with it!
That hurts. Using a gun that way requires a different sort of practice.

Sprinting. If you hit someone with a gun, you are too close to them.
RUNN!! Or; Get a bigger Gun?

I don't know.
I don't understand the world.

I think it is sort of funny.
It's a conspiracy!

They want us to use Big Guns!
I Don't Want To!! Damn It!
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
by mr. Oscar Wilde.

Those that want to Know; Know.
Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby HungryHobo » Fri Jul 11, 2014 6:25 pm UTC

johnie104 wrote:In 2010 in the USA there were 11078 homicides by gun and 19392 suicides by gun.


ok. Before I look at the stats for other countries, lets propose some hypothesis.

Hypothesis: that easy access to guns dramatically increases the suicide rate.
If this is true then we would expect countries where firearms are easy to access to have a generally higher suicide rate.

Hypothesis: that easy access to guns combined with males tendency to use guns as a means of suicide is the main factor causing the higher male suicide rate.
If this is true then we would expect countries where firearms are easy to access to have a much higher male suicide rate.

US, guns very accessibly:
12.0 per 100,000 per year.
male:female
19.2:5.5
men ~4 times as likely to commit suicide.
most common method:Gun

Lithuania, guns not very accessible:
31.0 per 100,000 per year.
male:female
54.7:10.8
men 5 times as likely to commit suicide.
most common method:
Hanging was the most common method of completed suicides in Lithuania.
Proportion of hanging among the other methods of suicides increased from 87.3% during 1993-1997 till 90.1% during 1998-2002.

Ok.
perhaps that's unfair.
Lithuania is very different.

lets go with a country very similar to the US.

United Kingdom:
11.8per 100,000 per year.
male:female
3,726:1,181
Most common method: hanging with male and female methods being a lot more similar.
http://lostallhope.com/suicide-statisti ... ds-suicide

briefly browsing up and down the list I see little indication that guns being banned cuts down on suicides in any way.
it just increases the number of hangings and ... wow hanging is popular in countries where guns are hard to obtain.

There also seems to be little link between guns and the male-female suicide ratio.

I get the overwhelming impression that in the US suicides are just used as a political stick to beat on guns and have little to do with the overall rate.
Countries with similar cultures and lifestyles seem to have similar suicide rates with little relation to the accessibility of guns.
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Re: Gun Control

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:03 pm UTC

The science would disagree with you. Reducing lethal means is in fact very effective at reducing suicide rates.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Crissa » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:39 pm UTC

Is Hoboguy using pretty much the same exact style of argument that got SFX a time out from the climate change threads?

What use is it comparing random two items without doing any controls for other variables?

-Crissa

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:16 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:The science would disagree with you. Reducing lethal means is in fact very effective at reducing suicide rates.


Congrats on dragging this up yet again. Everyone has seen this study dozens of times by now. Please refer to the numerous previous discussions in this very thread that beat that topic to death.

Also, comparing anyone to SFX's horrible trolling there is a wee bit unfair. That was...pages and pages of deliberately distorted data, endless gish gallops and so forth. Even if HungryHobo's data is incorrect, it isn't on that level.

Personally, I prefer other metholodologies, but regardless of which you use, it's pretty clear that suicide rates vary quite widely between different cultures regardless of firearm access, yes? Surely that much, at least, is uncontroversial.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:58 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:The science would disagree with you. Reducing lethal means is in fact very effective at reducing suicide rates.


Congrats on dragging this up yet again. Everyone has seen this study dozens of times by now. Please refer to the numerous previous discussions in this very thread that beat that topic to death.


Well, apparently somebody hasn't, because the topic came up again. It's not like there isn't plenty of academic scholarship on suicide rates and methods out there.

Tyndmyr wrote:Personally, I prefer other metholodologies, but regardless of which you use, it's pretty clear that suicide rates vary quite widely between different cultures regardless of firearm access, yes? Surely that much, at least, is uncontroversial.


Certainly. But it's interesting to note that within a particular culture, namely the American one, suicides are strongly correlated with gun ownership, even accounting for things like urbanization, poverty rates, etc.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Tyndmyr » Sat Jul 12, 2014 6:43 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:The science would disagree with you. Reducing lethal means is in fact very effective at reducing suicide rates.


Congrats on dragging this up yet again. Everyone has seen this study dozens of times by now. Please refer to the numerous previous discussions in this very thread that beat that topic to death.


Well, apparently somebody hasn't, because the topic came up again. It's not like there isn't plenty of academic scholarship on suicide rates and methods out there.


Yes. And everyone cites the coal gas one, directly or indirectly. And then, we go round and round.

It's fairly obvious that in the short term, stopping someone intent on suicide does work....that's true, but also entirely uncontroversial.

It's also fairly obvious that removal of a method from a society is replaced in the long term. Even the coal gas study shows replacement rates curving upward. Sure, it's great to stop a suicidal impulse, but...what the impulse is depends on society, and the socially accepted images of suicides. You ban all the guns, and the image of the typical suicide will shift, and the means will change.

This shouldn't even require a study, since it is patently obvious that people no longer commit suicide in significant amounts by say, seppuku, or drinking hemlock, and that the suicide bomber has not always been a thing.

Tyndmyr wrote:Personally, I prefer other metholodologies, but regardless of which you use, it's pretty clear that suicide rates vary quite widely between different cultures regardless of firearm access, yes? Surely that much, at least, is uncontroversial.


Certainly. But it's interesting to note that within a particular culture, namely the American one, suicides are strongly correlated with gun ownership, even accounting for things like urbanization, poverty rates, etc.


It's not interesting. It's mundane. It's been repeatedly beaten to death over 50+ pages. American culture includes a lot of guns. Therefore, guns are represented.... We love the shit out of cars too, and thus, cars are represented in our deaths. That's...not strange. That's what you would expect to see from iconic elements of culture. You're not going to see suicides by train in an area with no trains. That doesn't mean banning trains is a reasonable cure....

Additionally, it doesn't track gun ownership well over time, nor does the US have a particularly high rate of suicide(though we DO have a high rate of firearm ownership).

It means you should probably examine why the hell people want to kill themselves in the first place. Merely trying to deprive someone of the means at the last minute is a really shitty "solution". You still have a person in such dire straights that they literally want to kill themselves. Why does this happen? Well...financial hardship is one reason. Untreated mental illness is another. Being part of an abused or persecuted group is, unsurprisingly, another.

I suspect that the reason it tracks fairly well on a region to region basis within the US, but does not match up well otherwise, is simply because rural areas correlate strongly with firearm ownership, and rural areas correlate with poverty and...well, poverty and suicide have long been close friends.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby HungryHobo » Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:02 pm UTC

To be more fair and avoid the risk of cherry picking I was going to try to build up a chart of guns per capita vs suicide rate.

I'm part way through building up a table but the data entry is a killer and I can't find guns per capita data for many countries.

http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/86/ ... le-T1.html

I've written hanging/poisoning/jumping an unreasonable number of times so far.

Unfortunately Colombia,Uruguay and the US seem to be it for the countries where firearms are used for the majority of suicides.

The US doesn't seem to have an unusually high or low suicide rate despite having a crazy high number of guns per capita.
For the top 10 countries by guns per capita the US seems to be the only one where guns are used for the majority of suicides.

Not sure why I'm bothering though. Most people don't care about facts and reality. this is a sacred-values, red vs blue, good vs evil issue for too many people so it would be dismissed no matter what.

That reminds me of some "science" by anti-nuclear groups who were desperate to not have nuclear as their #1 for lowest number of deaths so they quietly estimated the deaths for a nuclear war and added them into the deaths per GW for that energy source. nice design and presentation though.
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Re: Gun Control

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jul 12, 2014 12:13 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:I suspect that the reason it tracks fairly well on a region to region basis within the US, but does not match up well otherwise, is simply because rural areas correlate strongly with firearm ownership, and rural areas correlate with poverty and...well, poverty and suicide have long been close friends.


Except that the studies explicitly account for the effects of both urbanization and poverty as I noted in the post you're quoting from. It's not like this hasn't been studied extensively. There's 30 years of peer-reviewed literature on this topic.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Brace » Sat Jul 12, 2014 2:16 pm UTC

This post had objectionable content.
Last edited by Brace on Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:43 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gun Control

Postby addams » Sat Jul 12, 2014 3:15 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:The science would disagree with you. Reducing lethal means is in fact very effective at reducing suicide rates.


Congrats on dragging this up yet again. Everyone has seen this study dozens of times by now. Please refer to the numerous previous discussions in this very thread that beat that topic to death.


Well, apparently somebody hasn't, because the topic came up again. It's not like there isn't plenty of academic scholarship on suicide rates and methods out there.


Yes. And everyone cites the coal gas one, directly or indirectly. And then, we go round and round.

It's fairly obvious that in the short term, stopping someone intent on suicide does work....that's true, but also entirely uncontroversial.

It's also fairly obvious that removal of a method from a society is replaced in the long term. Even the coal gas study shows replacement rates curving upward. Sure, it's great to stop a suicidal impulse, but...what the impulse is depends on society, and the socially accepted images of suicides. You ban all the guns, and the image of the typical suicide will shift, and the means will change.

This shouldn't even require a study, since it is patently obvious that people no longer commit suicide in significant amounts by say, seppuku, or drinking hemlock, and that the suicide bomber has not always been a thing.

Tyndmyr wrote:Personally, I prefer other metholodologies, but regardless of which you use, it's pretty clear that suicide rates vary quite widely between different cultures regardless of firearm access, yes? Surely that much, at least, is uncontroversial.


Certainly. But it's interesting to note that within a particular culture, namely the American one, suicides are strongly correlated with gun ownership, even accounting for things like urbanization, poverty rates, etc.


It's not interesting. It's mundane. It's been repeatedly beaten to death over 50+ pages. American culture includes a lot of guns. Therefore, guns are represented.... We love the shit out of cars too, and thus, cars are represented in our deaths. That's...not strange. That's what you would expect to see from iconic elements of culture. You're not going to see suicides by train in an area with no trains. That doesn't mean banning trains is a reasonable cure....

Additionally, it doesn't track gun ownership well over time, nor does the US have a particularly high rate of suicide(though we DO have a high rate of firearm ownership).

It means you should probably examine why the hell people want to kill themselves in the first place. Merely trying to deprive someone of the means at the last minute is a really shitty "solution". You still have a person in such dire straights that they literally want to kill themselves. Why does this happen? Well...financial hardship is one reason. Untreated mental illness is another. Being part of an abused or persecuted group is, unsurprisingly, another.

I suspect that the reason it tracks fairly well on a region to region basis within the US, but does not match up well otherwise, is simply because rural areas correlate strongly with firearm ownership, and rural areas correlate with poverty and...well, poverty and suicide have long been close friends.

That is Beautiful.
It shows a fundamental understanding.

It has what I think are Best Parts.
In 3D- Real Life-, Once Upon a Time.

I would take a copy and other people would take a copy.
We would come back with our 1st guess about what were the Best Parts.

I am Old.
We used Pencil, or Pen or (Whew Hew!) HighLighters.

If there were overlapping Highlighted Areas.
We had something to talk about.

If there were No overlapping Highlighted Areas,
We had nothing about.

As I remember it.
We talked, anyway.

Spoiler:
This machine is so cool.
With the Internet it allows me to do the following.

I wonder how it will turn out.
(shrug) It's the Internet.


My Favorite Parts:
We love the shit out of cars too, and thus, cars are represented in our deaths. That's...not strange. That's what you would expect to see from iconic elements of culture. You're not going to see suicides by train in an area with no trains. That doesn't mean banning trains is a reasonable cure....

It shows a fundamental understanding.
How I agree.
Spoiler:
Cars are dangerous.
Not as much as they once were.

Many cars are equipped with Air Bags and Seat Belts and Passenger Cages and Suspension Systems that Work.
We still Die in Car Accidents. And; Car on Purposes.

Accident or Suicide?
A Suicide Note makes it a Suicide.

Everything else is Something Else.
Sometimes, It's Murder.


It means you should probably examine why the hell people want to kill themselves in the first place. Merely trying to deprive someone of the means at the last minute is a really shitty "solution". You still have a person in such dire straights that they literally want to kill themselves. Why does this happen? Well...financial hardship is one reason. Untreated mental illness is another. Being part of an abused or persecuted group is, unsurprisingly, another. [/b]

I, just, liked it.
There is a great deal left out.
No one can adequately address the issue of Suicide in one paragraph in a Thread about something else.

That was a Noble Try.

Did I have a Least favorite part?

Yes.
This part.
I suspect that the reason it tracks fairly well on a region to region basis within the US, but does not match up well otherwise, is simply because rural areas correlate strongly with firearm ownership, and rural areas correlate with poverty and...well, poverty and suicide have long been close friends.


It seems to be true.
Sort of.

The cities have Poverty.
The Country Folk have Poverty, too.

The Cities have Granduor.
The Rural Settings have Grandour, too.

I have been told Over and Over that the Country Side is Poor.
It is true. The People struggle. Not all. Some.

And in the Country like in the City,
One Man is Blowing by in his Smoke Stack Truck.

(For city people that is like a Ferrari Italia painted Yellow blowing across the Golden Gate Bridge at 2 am.
The Gate will be Open. The Driver knows the Gate Keeper.)


Another Man is Standing by his Vehicle, it is out of fuel and he is out of Money.

(For city people that is the man that dies in the doorway of exposure, secondary to malnurisment.
Spoiler:
He did not have enough body fat to keep him warm on a 60 degree night.

He died in his sleep.
Like most victims of exposure do.


Did anyone else have a favorite part?
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We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
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Re: Gun Control

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:28 pm UTC

Brace wrote:Maybe the problem is that many people who buy guns do so impulsively, and impulsive people are more likely to commit suicide impulsively. It's not really any secret that guns aren't always treated with the respect they deserve. This isn't all too harmful, any more than mistreating any machine is harmful, but accidental injury or death and suicide seem like reasonable places for harm to happen as a result. Guns are a right in this country, and some percentage of the population thinks that means that social pressure to take gun ownership seriously and practice reasonable gun safety is some sort of infringement on their rights.


An interesting proposition...perhaps it could be tested by comparing suicide rates against adoption of waiting period laws to see if there is any effect? There certainly isn't on the national level, but that's a handgun only waiting period. Still, one would expect a waiting period would decrease impulse buys, yes?

LaserGuy wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:I suspect that the reason it tracks fairly well on a region to region basis within the US, but does not match up well otherwise, is simply because rural areas correlate strongly with firearm ownership, and rural areas correlate with poverty and...well, poverty and suicide have long been close friends.


Except that the studies explicitly account for the effects of both urbanization and poverty as I noted in the post you're quoting from. It's not like this hasn't been studied extensively. There's 30 years of peer-reviewed literature on this topic.


So, what's the premise then...that gun ownership is dangerous...but only for Americans? Are Americans intrinsicly different from the rest of humanity?

HungryHobo wrote:To be more fair and avoid the risk of cherry picking I was going to try to build up a chart of guns per capita vs suicide rate.

I'm part way through building up a table but the data entry is a killer and I can't find guns per capita data for many countries.

http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/86/ ... le-T1.html

I've written hanging/poisoning/jumping an unreasonable number of times so far.

Unfortunately Colombia,Uruguay and the US seem to be it for the countries where firearms are used for the majority of suicides.

The US doesn't seem to have an unusually high or low suicide rate despite having a crazy high number of guns per capita.
For the top 10 countries by guns per capita the US seems to be the only one where guns are used for the majority of suicides.


Guns per Capita, unfortunately, isn't always tracked. It's fairly well tracked in european countries, where it is almost invariably far lower than in the US(norway is highest among europe by far), but the less developed the country, the less statistics available, and lower the quality, usually.

The US suicide rate is perhaps most interesting for how strangely banal it is. Very average, as you pointed out...and also not a lot of variability in it. It's as if very little difference is being made by ANYTHING. Which is kind of troubling, really.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby leady » Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:53 pm UTC

I have little doubt that more opportunity = more success, but whether its a huge factor or not... Its a shame that all those papers are squirrelled away

also you only need to get stuck coming out of london a couple of times on the train or tube for 5 hours to actively wish there were still methods people could do this at home (as callous as that sounds). No coal gas, no CO from cars, not even paracetamol in more than 16s in the UK....

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Re: Gun Control

Postby addams » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:24 pm UTC

The subject is a Worthy one.
Suicide and Gun Control are different Subjects.

Are they not?

Do you Know about Richard?
I should know his last name.

I could flounder around and remember it.
He was real as real could be.

He was a Sargent.
His death may be used as evidence men are damaged by War.

In Richard's case it was not being in Iraq that caused him to sit down with his back against the right front tire of his truck, looking out at some of the most beautiful country God ever created and shoot himself.

I KNOW! why he did it.
It was a Callous and Chaotic fucking Woman!

I KNOW!

Control your Gun?
He had complete control of his gun.
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We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
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Re: Gun Control

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:30 pm UTC

leady wrote:I have little doubt that more opportunity = more success, but whether its a huge factor or not... Its a shame that all those papers are squirrelled away

also you only need to get stuck coming out of london a couple of times on the train or tube for 5 hours to actively wish there were still methods people could do this at home (as callous as that sounds). No coal gas, no CO from cars, not even paracetamol in more than 16s in the UK....


From a strictly societal viewpoint, a suicide that disrupts society significantly is probably more destructive than a private affair. Sure, one would rather the suicide not happen at all, but people jumping in front of trains is probably particularly bad.

Saw a thing a while ago...said that suicides were about double the normal rate on wednesdays. Big ol' spike midweek. It doesn't seem like being a couple more days from the weekend should be enough to make such a difference, but maybe it is...

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Re: Gun Control

Postby addams » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:50 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
leady wrote:I have little doubt that more opportunity = more success, but whether its a huge factor or not... Its a shame that all those papers are squirrelled away

also you only need to get stuck coming out of london a couple of times on the train or tube for 5 hours to actively wish there were still methods people could do this at home (as callous as that sounds). No coal gas, no CO from cars, not even paracetamol in more than 16s in the UK....


From a strictly societal viewpoint, a suicide that disrupts society significantly is probably more destructive than a private affair. Sure, one would rather the suicide not happen at all, but people jumping in front of trains is probably particularly bad.

Saw a thing a while ago...said that suicides were about double the normal rate on wednesdays. Big ol' spike midweek. It doesn't seem like being a couple more days from the weekend should be enough to make such a difference, but maybe it is...

What?
When people say, "Different day:Same Shit."
They sometimes really are doing The Math.

Mid-Week. Think about that. Is it True?
Did God create one hour different from other hours?

I think, Not.
We sure seem to think one hour is different from the other hours.
Life is, just, an exchange of electrons; It is up to us to give it meaning.

We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
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Those that want to Know; Know.
Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Cleverbeans » Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:38 pm UTC

Brace wrote:Maybe the problem is that many people who buy guns do so impulsively, and impulsive people are more likely to commit suicide impulsively.

I don't think this is true. Suicide attempts are often impulsive but there is no evidence that by nature they're impulsive people and the same goes for gun owners. It seems more likely that having access to deadly force means more successful suicides by gun than by other methods. Other methods which are as lethal often require more planning and preparation which simply isn't as convenient in the heat of the moment.
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Re: Gun Control

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:44 pm UTC

Cleverbeans wrote:
Brace wrote:Maybe the problem is that many people who buy guns do so impulsively, and impulsive people are more likely to commit suicide impulsively.

I don't think this is true. Suicide attempts are often impulsive but there is no evidence that by nature they're impulsive people and the same goes for gun owners. It seems more likely that having access to deadly force means more successful suicides by gun than by other methods. Other methods which are as lethal often require more planning and preparation which simply isn't as convenient in the heat of the moment.


As HungryHobo observed, Hanging/Poisoning/Jumping are fairly universal trends. None of those seems to require a great deal of preparation or planning.

I suppose one might not happen to have any pills about the house, but the same could be said of a firearm, surely.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby leady » Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:57 pm UTC

I would imagine its the immediate certainty to it that other methods don't have that would explain their use when available. Its the same reason people jump in front of trains generally in preference to leaping off buildings I suspect - instant and guaranteed success.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:04 pm UTC

leady wrote:I would imagine its the immediate certainty to it that other methods don't have that would explain their use when available. Its the same reason people jump in front of trains generally in preference to leaping off buildings I suspect - instant and guaranteed success.


Leaping off buildings, bridges, etc, is still quite common. And pretty guaranteed for any decent height.

Oh, sure, there are the freak survivals of a bullet to the face, or a fall from ridiculous heights, but in general, if it's 50+ feet, you're DOA. It's possible that they fear regret while falling, though...

If memory serves, there are other interesting social effects. IIRC, women are/were(would have to look up exact stats) more likely to choose poison. I'd imagine that such an effect would be due to societal pressure. Value in beauty, corpse condition after death, etc.

Googling this stuff gets a little dark.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Brace » Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:08 pm UTC

I'll give you another shot to word that without the flame bait.

- Az
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Re: Gun Control

Postby Crissa » Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:08 pm UTC

Strangely, if you examine the same population before/after a change in availability of guns, you find a correlation. When you don't examine the same population, you don't. Seems pretty simple, then - removing guns doesn't remove suicide, but it does make it a bit more difficult somehow.

-Crissa

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Jul 15, 2014 1:39 pm UTC

Crissa wrote:Strangely, if you examine the same population before/after a change in availability of guns, you find a correlation. When you don't examine the same population, you don't. Seems pretty simple, then - removing guns doesn't remove suicide, but it does make it a bit more difficult somehow.

-Crissa


The US has not had the same level of gun control in general...but the suicide level has been remarkably invariant, and does not track gun ownership levels. Gun ownership levels have been rising of late, but suicide is staying steady.

How is the US not the same population as the US?

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Crissa » Tue Jul 15, 2014 4:03 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:The US has not had the same level of gun control in general...but the suicide level has been remarkably invariant,

I notice a lack of citation.

Perhaps it's because 'the US' does not have consistent gun laws because most are at the state level? Perhaps because it doesn't support the right-wing position, and so the US Congress banned any study of it?

At any rate, suicide rate is not 'notably invariant'. There are just many things which contribute to it. Gun availability in the home is just one thing. Soldiers already have a high suicide rate - if their access to guns is controlled, the number of them that successfully commit suicide is lowered. In every case I know of.

-Crissa
Last edited by Crissa on Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:15 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Tyndmyr » Tue Jul 15, 2014 4:13 pm UTC

Crissa wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:The US has not had the same level of gun control in general...but the suicide level has been remarkably invariant,

I notice a lack of citation.

Perhaps it's because 'the US' does not have consistent gun laws because most are at the state level? Perhaps because it doesn't support the right-wing position, and so the US Congress banned any study of it?

At any rate, suicide rate is not 'notably invariant'. There are just many things which contribute to it. Gun availability in the home is just one thing. Soldiers already have a high suicide rate - if their access to guns is controlled, the number of them that successfully commit suicide is lowered. In every case I know of.

-Crissa


"in every case I know of" is not a citation. If you're going to nitpick citations, feel free to provide them yourself.

In any case, the overall US suicide rate is trivial to find.

And, the biggest risk for suicide for veterans is LEAVING the military. The active duty military suicide rate is similar to that of the general population*, despite being in a profession that works with firearms. And generally being fairly high stress. Deployment rate, etc does affect suicide rates, but that seems to be a pretty straightforward stress issue. Likewise, getting out of the military is a significant lifestyle change. It seems unlikely that getting out of the military makes one MORE exposed to firearms.

*After you adjustfor a higher male suicide rate, and a higher proportion of military being male.
Last edited by Tyndmyr on Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:29 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Crissa » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:27 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:I notice a lack of citation.

Whatever. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23897090

You can continue this sniping, but you don't have any citations. And you're not facing any of the points I brought - I'm not disputing that there are other risks. Repeatedly.

-Crissa

Fix your markup, too, please.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby leady » Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:35 am UTC

Its would be interesting to see the actual extent of that delta. On the face of it 78% reduction in the most common form should be a big absolute drop which would be referenced. However my spidey senses detect that the categorisations have been formed such that firearm suicide is "most common form", yet is a small overall segment - contrary to the theme of the abstract. not to say that the study is wrong, but the abstract leaves out elements that would seem to be pertinent, which makes me suspicious (I'm very cynical). It also leaves out whether this is a sustained gain in that abstract - I can well see that it takes a while for the cultural percolation of new methods that reduce the gains over time (I expect they would)

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Tyndmyr » Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:30 pm UTC

Crissa wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:I notice a lack of citation.

Whatever. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23897090

You can continue this sniping, but you don't have any citations. And you're not facing any of the points I brought - I'm not disputing that there are other risks. Repeatedly.

-Crissa

Fix your markup, too, please.


Markup's broken because I quoted your broken markup.

Additionally, while complaining about sniping and lack of citations, you trimmed your quote such to remove the included citation link. Pot, kettle, black.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Crissa » Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:16 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Additionally, while complaining about sniping and lack of citations, you trimmed your quote such to remove the included citation link. Pot, kettle, black.

You can lie about your citation, but it does not say anything to contradict me.

-Crissa

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Re: Gun Control

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:47 am UTC

Crissa wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:Additionally, while complaining about sniping and lack of citations, you trimmed your quote such to remove the included citation link. Pot, kettle, black.

You can lie about your citation, but it does not say anything to contradict me.

-Crissa


That is not a lie, there was obviously a citation there. And it substantiates military suicide rates, which do contradict your claims.

Oh look, another anti-gunner got caught in a lie. And by that, I mean sending ricin to political figures in an attempt to frame gun advocates.

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Re: Gun Control

Postby addams » Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:38 am UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
Crissa wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:Additionally, while complaining about sniping and lack of citations, you trimmed your quote such to remove the included citation link. Pot, kettle, black.

You can lie about your citation, but it does not say anything to contradict me.

-Crissa


That is not a lie, there was obviously a citation there. And it substantiates military suicide rates, which do contradict your claims.

Oh look, another anti-gunner got caught in a lie. And by that, I mean sending ricin to political figures in an attempt to frame gun advocates.

uumm.
Every Camp has its NutBalls.

That NutBall may be suffering and causing suffering because of her membership in the subjet of Humans called Actors.
Not, her membership in the Subset, Anti-Gun. Two very different things.

Of course, like other oddities, she might be Both or even Three things.
A Militant Narcissistic Pacifist.

Making Poison from Scratch?
That's Ambitious.

She was an Ambitious Militant Narcissistic Pacifist.
Spoiler:
The Itty Bitty Bikini Song comes to mind.


Weird.
News is always Weird.

We don't like it and won't pay attention if it is not Weird.
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We are all in The Gutter.
Some of us see The Gutter.
Some of us see The Stars.
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Those that do not Know; Don't tell them.
They do terrible things to people that Tell Them.


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