2067: "Challengers"

This forum is for the individual discussion thread that goes with each new comic.

Moderators: Moderators General, Prelates, Magistrates

Lucia
Posts: 95
Joined: Sun May 09, 2010 1:35 am UTC

2067: "Challengers"

Postby Lucia » Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:44 am UTC

Image
[ https://xkcd.com/2067/asset/comic.js ]
Image
To edit the map, submit your ballot on November 6th.


I don't see anything, and I'm not sure if that's intended; it could be meant to show results as they come in, but wouldn't that be Monday's comic?
In any case, Americans, you can also edit the map by voting early/absentee.
Last edited by Lucia on Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:50 am UTC, edited 2 times in total.
Wildhound wrote:Nobody ever sigs me. I think it's because I never say anything clever.

User avatar
rhomboidal
Posts: 796
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:25 pm UTC
Contact:

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby rhomboidal » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:10 am UTC

Maybe I'm just hungry, but I kept expecting to see a "Burger King" appear when I zoomed in. (I don't think the King's up for any office, though I really wouldn't be that surprised if he was.)

Sjö
Posts: 13
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2013 3:18 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby Sjö » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:19 am UTC

To edit the map, submit your ballot on November 6th

Yay, another interactive comic! I love those, but it looks like there's some geoblocking at play in this one. Seems I can't edit from Sweden.
We barely understand anything but that's what the first part of understanding everything looks like.

User avatar
orthogon
Posts: 3057
Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 7:52 am UTC
Location: The Airy 1830 ellipsoid

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby orthogon » Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:07 am UTC

Lucia wrote:I don't see anything, and I'm not sure if that's intended; it could be meant to show results as they come in, but wouldn't that be Monday's comic?
In any case, Americans, you can also edit the map by voting early/absentee.

Works ok on Chrome for 'droid, but on Windows it falls foul of a Cross-Origin Resource Sharing error both in Chrome and Firefox. IE doesn't give that error but just says "Loading" - perhaps it's ultimately the same problem. As far as I can tell, the "cross-domain" aspect seems to be because the json is at xkcd.com whilst the html and javascript are at http://www.xkcd.com. I guess this is either a different interpretation of "cross-domain" or the 'droid browser just doesn't bother to check.

ETA: dtgriscom nailed it below: on my 'droid the URL I've requested is just xkcd.com so there's no cross-origin by any interpretation. If I remove the www on Windows it works too. Probably there ought to be a redirect one way or the other so everything appears to come from the same domain.
Last edited by orthogon on Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:46 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

dtgriscom
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:54 pm UTC
Location: Wakefield, MA

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby dtgriscom » Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:45 am UTC

On Chrome for OS X, I get nothing when I visit https://www.xkcd.com . The console shows a Cross-Origin Read Blocking error:

Code: Select all

Access to fetch at 'https://xkcd.com/2067/asset/map-data.json' from origin 'https://www.xkcd.com' has been blocked by CORS policy: No 'Access-Control-Allow-Origin' header is present on the requested resource. If an opaque response serves your needs, set the request's mode to 'no-cors' to fetch the resource with CORS disabled.


But, it works fine when I visit https://xkcd.com .

dtgriscom
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:54 pm UTC
Location: Wakefield, MA

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby dtgriscom » Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:54 am UTC

I'm having a tough time with "pinch" and "zoom" on this comic; it feels like it takes forever to change magnifications. For instance, on my Macbook Pro 15 with Chrome, it takes about twelve "unpinch" gestures to zoom from the initial view to having Nebraska fill the pane, and another ten or so to be able to read Paul Theobald's name (hi, Paul!).

This gets old fast, and I'm finding myself using a finger on each hand to pseudo-pinch. I even dove into the source to see if I could up the sensitivity by 4 to 10 times, but it's too opaque and compactified.

Any suggestions on how to make this better?

User avatar
da Doctah
Posts: 976
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2012 6:27 am UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby da Doctah » Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:42 am UTC

How do you zoom with a mouse?

Edit: Figured it out. If you're still trying to, it's double-click. There doesn't seem to be a way to pinch. The four-way race for Mayor of Phoenix (replacing the resigned incumbent) isn't listed, nor is the AZ Secretary of State, who is effectively the Lieutenant Governor as he/she will become Governor when the one elected leaves office. This latter is more important than it would be in most states, as this state hasn't had a Governor both enter and leave office via the electoral process since 1975.
Last edited by da Doctah on Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:53 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
smq
Posts: 6
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2007 9:12 pm UTC
Location: MI, USA

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby smq » Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:43 am UTC

Hmm, how confident are you on Amanda Brand over Rachel Hood in the Michigan 76th? Admittedly the district is gerrymandered all to hell and back, so I don't know many of my fellow voters, but based on an unofficial survey of my neighbor's yard signs, I thought Hood was looking good! ;)

(And we've consistently elected Winnie Brinks (D) in that district the last few times around...)

User avatar
orthogon
Posts: 3057
Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 7:52 am UTC
Location: The Airy 1830 ellipsoid

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby orthogon » Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:47 am UTC

da Doctah wrote:How do you zoom with a mouse?

One word: Scroll wheel.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

Lucia
Posts: 95
Joined: Sun May 09, 2010 1:35 am UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby Lucia » Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:53 am UTC

I've updated the links in the first post to point to https://xkcd.com, without the www, so that should help anyone like me who comes here looking, confused.

...also to point to comic 2067, instead of 1110. :oops: :lol:
Wildhound wrote:Nobody ever sigs me. I think it's because I never say anything clever.

dtgriscom
Posts: 6
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:54 pm UTC
Location: Wakefield, MA

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby dtgriscom » Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:02 pm UTC

da Doctah wrote:How do you zoom with a mouse?

Edit: Figured it out. If you're still trying to, it's double-click.


Thanks for the double-click tip. Shift-double-click zooms out. (Far more convenient than pinch and unpinch, although it shouldn't be...)

mlepinski
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:01 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby mlepinski » Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:08 pm UTC

The comic seems to be inconsistent in identifying the "Challenger" in races where there is no incumbent.

In the Florida State House, District 73 is an open seat (Liv Coleman vs Tommy Gregory) and they list Liv Coleman's name.

However, in the Florida State Senate, District 23 is an open seat (Olivia Babis vs Joe Gruters) and neither Olivia nor Joe is listed (that district just doesn't seem to appear on the map).

Similarly, Florida Governor is an open seat (Andrew Gillum vs Ron DeSantis) and they list Andrew Gillum's name. However, the 17th Congressional District is also an open seat (Allen Ellison vs Greg Steube) and the comic does not list either Allen or Greg.

pareidolon
Posts: 31
Joined: Fri Apr 08, 2011 6:59 am UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby pareidolon » Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:20 pm UTC

On Firefox, Chrome and Edge all I get is a blank image. Seems subversive, but I'm not quite sure how. Using the scroll wheel inside the image just moves my scroll bar. Edit: Clicking the link to https://xkcd.com, without the www, loaded the comic correctly.

I have a general question, if anyone might know. I recall in a past election (may have been 2000) districts were declaring their winner and stopping the count before counting absentee votes, write-ins, and/or paper ballots and/or early votes. This has made me apprehensive about voting any other way than at the machine on the day. Is this still generally true?

User avatar
Soupspoon
You have done something you shouldn't. Or are about to.
Posts: 4060
Joined: Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:00 pm UTC
Location: 53-1

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby Soupspoon » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:23 pm UTC

Once I figured out the www-less method to get it working, I had a look around. More at the monochrome text, actually.

Zoomed in on Washington (DC), wondering what I might find there, and LOLed.

fatcatfan
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:12 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby fatcatfan » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:35 pm UTC

I think this is cool, but I question some of its accuracy. If I'm interpreting it correctly, it shows only the name of the candidate likely to win in each race, and a larger size of the name indicates a greater chance of success.

I suppose it depends on whose data and models you trust, but an election on my ballot for Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District will almost certainly go to the incumbent Republican rather than to Danielle Mitchell as shown on the map. It shows her name pretty small, indicating a low chance, but why wouldn't it instead show Chuck Fleischmann in large print?

EDIT: yes, I now understand, this map only shows "Challengers", as indicated by its title.
Last edited by fatcatfan on Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:26 pm UTC, edited 2 times in total.

qwerty2
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:42 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby qwerty2 » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:50 pm UTC

This Minnesotan is not buying your MN map. I'm wondering if the fact that our Democrats are Democratic-Farmer-Labor and the fact that we have two senate seats up for grabs is messing up your system.
Also,
1 - I have yet to see any poll the puts Johnson ahead of Walz for Governor
2 - Where is Klobuchar? If there is a shoe-in in this race it is her

LtPowers
Posts: 38
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:02 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby LtPowers » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:55 pm UTC

smq wrote:Hmm, how confident are you on Amanda Brand over Rachel Hood in the Michigan 76th? Admittedly the district is gerrymandered all to hell and back, so I don't know many of my fellow voters, but based on an unofficial survey of my neighbor's yard signs, I thought Hood was looking good! ;)


Look how small Brand's name is. Not as small as Schutte's in the 75th but pretty small. That means she has a small chance of flipping the seat from blue to red. The map only shows challengers, no incumbents (for open seats, the "challenger" is the one that would change the party).


orthogon wrote:
da Doctah wrote:How do you zoom with a mouse?

One word: Scroll wheel.


That's two words.


Powers &8^]

User avatar
thunk
Posts: 480
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2016 3:29 am UTC
Location: Arguably Exiled

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby thunk » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:56 pm UTC

Lupe Valdez is misspelled in Texas.

Also the size of the text seems to have a lot to do with the size of the district? Ortiz Jones has a larger name than a lot of other challengers in lean R House districts.
Free markets, free movement, free plops
Blitz on, my friends Quantized, GnomeAnne, and iskinner!
troo dat

User avatar
Wee Red Bird
Posts: 191
Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:50 am UTC
Location: In a tree

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby Wee Red Bird » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:57 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:Zoomed in on Washington (DC), wondering what I might find there, and LOLed.

Probably a few of them around. Another figure in Richmond.
Edit: And a big one above Mount Shasta City Park
Last edited by Wee Red Bird on Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:02 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
cellocgw
Posts: 2043
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 7:40 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby cellocgw » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:01 pm UTC

LtPowers wrote:
orthogon wrote:
da Doctah wrote:How do you zoom with a mouse?

One word: Scroll wheel.


That's two words.


Not in German: scrollrad
Not in Estonian: kerimisratast
Finnish: vierityspyörä
Khmer: កង់រមូរ (I can't tell if that's a single word...)
Somali: gawaarida
Last edited by cellocgw on Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:55 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
https://app.box.com/witthoftresume
Former OTTer
Vote cellocgw for President 2020. #ScienceintheWhiteHouse http://cellocgw.wordpress.com
"The Planck length is 3.81779e-33 picas." -- keithl
" Earth weighs almost exactly π milliJupiters" -- what-if #146, note 7

User avatar
Keyman
Posts: 333
Joined: Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:56 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby Keyman » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:09 pm UTC

Looking at "my" portion of the map, we have two Senate races...one regular cycle and one "Special election". The Special election is supposed to be a somewhat closer race, but if I don't find the "Challenger" name for the regular cycle campaign, does that mean the guy has *no* chance to win?
Nothing could be more ill-judged than that intolerant spirit which has, at all times, characterized political parties. - A. Hamilton

User avatar
thunk
Posts: 480
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2016 3:29 am UTC
Location: Arguably Exiled

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby thunk » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:14 pm UTC

Keyman wrote:Looking at "my" portion of the map, we have two Senate races...one regular cycle and one "Special election". The Special election is supposed to be a somewhat closer race, but if I don't find the "Challenger" name for the regular cycle campaign, does that mean the guy has *no* chance to win?


Look a bit to the north. Both Baria (MS) and the MN regular challenger are there.

Also third psrty candidates seem to be missing though. Gary Johnson (0.2% chance) should be next to Mick Rich (0.7% chance) in NM
Free markets, free movement, free plops
Blitz on, my friends Quantized, GnomeAnne, and iskinner!
troo dat

User avatar
Keyman
Posts: 333
Joined: Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:56 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby Keyman » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:16 pm UTC

qwerty2 wrote:This Minnesotan is not buying your MN map. I'm wondering if the fact that our Democrats are Democratic-Farmer-Labor and the fact that we have two senate seats up for grabs is messing up your system.
Also,
1 - I have yet to see any poll the puts Johnson ahead of Walz for Governor
2 - Where is Klobuchar? If there is a shoe-in in this race it is her

It only list the Challengers, and some of the font size is weighted to account for the "size" of the position. So Smith wouldn't be listed, (nor Amy, but see my question above. Do *you* see her Challenger?). I think Johnson is listed as the Challenger, since Walz is the same party as Governor TrustFundBaby. And since those are the 'higher offices" in this election, they get bigger fonts regardless of probability of win (I think.)
Nothing could be more ill-judged than that intolerant spirit which has, at all times, characterized political parties. - A. Hamilton

User avatar
orthogon
Posts: 3057
Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 7:52 am UTC
Location: The Airy 1830 ellipsoid

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby orthogon » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:18 pm UTC

fatcatfan wrote:I think this is cool, but I question some of its accuracy. If I'm interpreting it correctly, it shows only the name of the candidate likely to win in each race, and a larger size of the name indicates a greater chance of success.

I suppose it depends on whose data and models you trust, but an election on my ballot for Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District will almost certainly go to the incumbent Republican rather than to Danielle Mitchell as shown on the map. It shows her name pretty small, indicating a low chance, but why wouldn't it instead show Chuck Fleischmann in large print?

Presumably because an incumbent isn't a challenger, and vice versa?
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

fatcatfan
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:12 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby fatcatfan » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:22 pm UTC

LtPowers wrote:The map only shows challengers, no incumbents


Ah. Obvious now that you've pointed it out, right there in the title of the map/comic, but I totally missed this point.

Since the size of text is also relative to "height" of the office and only one candidate is shown, and apparent size is also relative to your zoom level, I'm not sure this map actually conveys anything helpful other than the names of challengers. The fact that it seems predominantly blue only indicates that most of the open seats are currently Republican.

Still cool the way the data was put together in this format.

orthogon wrote:Presumably because an incumbent isn't a challenger, and vice versa?


Yep, I missed that.

JPatten
Posts: 95
Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2010 5:39 pm UTC
Location: Southeast USA
Contact:

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby JPatten » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:29 pm UTC

There are a large number of Republican seats up for grabs and it is typical that the party in the white house loses seats in the Midterms. However, the massive blue wave that is coming so far appears to have hit some pretty rocky shores and it is a lot closer than was originally expected. At least in our state the early voter/absentee turn out is Huge. Perhaps even higher than 2016 which is saying a lot. Both sides are highly motivated and it will come down to who is doing a better job of motivating the base. The undecided vote is going to be buried under the enthusiasm gap I think.

KarynMcD
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Mar 09, 2016 3:28 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby KarynMcD » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:33 pm UTC

pareidolon wrote: I recall in a past election (may have been 2000) districts were declaring their winner and stopping the count before counting absentee votes, write-ins, and/or paper ballots and/or early votes. This has made me apprehensive about voting any other way than at the machine on the day. Is this still generally true?


If the percentage of their lead is bigger than the percentage of votes cast that way, they usually won't need to count them, because it won't change the outcome.

richP
Posts: 195
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:28 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby richP » Fri Nov 02, 2018 2:34 pm UTC

pareidolon wrote:
I have a general question, if anyone might know. I recall in a past election (may have been 2000) districts were declaring their winner and stopping the count before counting absentee votes, write-ins, and/or paper ballots and/or early votes. This has made me apprehensive about voting any other way than at the machine on the day. Is this still generally true?

You may find that a "declared" winner happens before absentee/write-in/provisional/etc. votes are counted. Those results are "unofficial results only" until the canvassing process takes place. In some cases write-in votes may just be grouped as "other" and not itemized unless the election was close (if Jack Johnson has 60% of the vote, Joe Jackson has 35%, and 5% are write-in, there's not much point in the effort of counting write-ins).
A lot of early results come from people standing around at counting locations (eg: some big room at city hall). As the (unofficial) results are taped up on the wall, they'll get reported to the rest of the world. In some cases, the machine counted ballots are posted very quickly, and the absentee ballots are still being counted. If the absentee ballot votes are distributed among the candidates in roughly the same proportion as the machine counted, the early tallies are a good indicator of what the final results will be.
Take the opportunity to watch the counting process sometime. It's about as exciting to watch as paint drying, but it helps to understand the infrastructure that supports our democracy. Take note of who else is there, notice that some of them have very different political leanings. Some of them have been watching this process for years as part of the grunt work of keeping their respective parties informed of the results. They'll have a pretty good idea of how the numbers will fall in their area and would be the first ones to raise the alarm if some shenanigans were happening.

Seraph
Posts: 342
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2007 4:51 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby Seraph » Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:11 pm UTC

mlepinski wrote:The comic seems to be inconsistent in identifying the "Challenger" in races where there is no incumbent.

In the Florida State House, District 73 is an open seat (Liv Coleman vs Tommy Gregory) and they list Liv Coleman's name.

However, in the Florida State Senate, District 23 is an open seat (Olivia Babis vs Joe Gruters) and neither Olivia nor Joe is listed (that district just doesn't seem to appear on the map).

Similarly, Florida Governor is an open seat (Andrew Gillum vs Ron DeSantis) and they list Andrew Gillum's name. However, the 17th Congressional District is also an open seat (Allen Ellison vs Greg Steube) and the comic does not list either Allen or Greg.

Florida's 73rd House district went Republican in 2016. So the Democratic candidate (Liv Coleman) is the "challenger".
Florida's Governor was a Republican, so the Democratic candidate (Andrew Gillum) is the "challenger".
Seems consistent to me.
Allen Ellison is listed on the map (just under Rick Scott for Senate), which again is a currently Republican seat with the Democrat listed as a challenger.

You appear to be correct about the 23rd Florida State Senate District, but that isn't normally up until 2020, so I assume that is the issue there.

thermopile
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed May 07, 2014 3:04 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby thermopile » Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:20 pm UTC

Wee Red Bird wrote:
Soupspoon wrote:Zoomed in on Washington (DC), wondering what I might find there, and LOLed.

Probably a few of them around. Another figure in Richmond.
Edit: And a big one above Mount Shasta City Park


Also found one up by Bellingham, WA. Nice Easter eggs.

User avatar
Flumble
Yes Man
Posts: 2227
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:35 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby Flumble » Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:50 pm UTC

It's a pity all the code is in a closure, otherwise you could've highlighted the comics on the map using some console javascript. For those who don't want to search for all nine easter eggs:
Spoiler:
(Sorry I couldn't find an unproject function for the coordinates, if one exists at all.)
At (401.612, 399.691):
Image
Near Mount Shasta, California (91.899, 183.786):
Image
Near Bellingham, Washington (136.729, 38.275):
Image
In Washington D.C. (803.826, 264.812):
Image
At (172.141, 331.796):
Image
At (388.662, 212.324):
Image
In Iowa (509.724, 216.197):
Image
Near Richmond, Virginia (800.408, 296.185):
Image
Near St Louis, Missouri (592.216, 297.815):
Image

User avatar
orthogon
Posts: 3057
Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 7:52 am UTC
Location: The Airy 1830 ellipsoid

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby orthogon » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:02 pm UTC

Flumble wrote:Image

This reminds me of something in Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari, where he talks about "level two chaotic systems". These are ones that respond to attempts to predict them. It doesn't appear to be a rigorously defined term within Chaos theory, but clearly informally it's easy to see that elections and markets belong in this category.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

User avatar
Pfhorrest
Posts: 5371
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:11 am UTC
Contact:

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby Pfhorrest » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:25 pm UTC

orthogon wrote:This reminds me of something in Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari, where he talks about "level two chaotic systems". These are ones that respond to attempts to predict them. It doesn't appear to be a rigorously defined term within Chaos theory, but clearly informally it's easy to see that elections and markets belong in this category.

Any such system would have to be a system containing the predictors, which basically just makes this a special case of feedback loop. I don't know enough enough about chaos theory to say if there's a special name for that special case of feedback loop, but I'm pretty sure feedback loops are a big part of chaos theory in general.


But on the topic of elections in general and predictions influencing how people vote: I can understand that the closeness or foregone-ness of a particular race might encourage or discourage people to vote at all, but one thing I've never understood is predicted outcome influencing how people vote. Like, why would you change your vote to or from someone based on the chances they will win, instead of based on how much you want them to win? Voting isn't making a bet on who's going to win, you don't get anything just because you voted for the winner, or lose anything because you voted for the loser.
Forrest Cameranesi, Geek of All Trades
"I am Sam. Sam I am. I do not like trolls, flames, or spam."
The Codex Quaerendae (my philosophy) - The Chronicles of Quelouva (my fiction)

marvincamera
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:19 pm UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby marvincamera » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:31 pm UTC

I'm not sure how much attention these corrections are getting, but I wanted to point out that in Vermont's Orange-1 district, the map lists Carl Demrow for state rep, instead of Susan Hatch Davis. It seems like others are also pointing out that third party candidates are not being included. In this particular race, Davis (Progressive/Dem) has at least as good of a chance as Demrow - she held the seat for three terms, losing in 2016 by 7 votes after a recount to Bob Frenier (R), who is not seeking reelection. Demrow has never held office before. Two candidates will be elected to this seat, so it's possible they'll both get it, but the incumbent Rodney Graham (R) has a pretty good chance.

User avatar
orthogon
Posts: 3057
Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 7:52 am UTC
Location: The Airy 1830 ellipsoid

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby orthogon » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:31 pm UTC

Pfhorrest wrote:
orthogon wrote:This reminds me of something in Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari, where he talks about "level two chaotic systems". These are ones that respond to attempts to predict them. It doesn't appear to be a rigorously defined term within Chaos theory, but clearly informally it's easy to see that elections and markets belong in this category.

Any such system would have to be a system containing the predictors, which basically just makes this a special case of feedback loop. I don't know enough enough about chaos theory to say if there's a special name for that special case of feedback loop, but I'm pretty sure feedback loops are a big part of chaos theory in general.

You make an excellent point, which I can't really disagree with. And yet, there's something about the nature of the feedback in this case. Level one chaotic systems like the weather at least permit ever better predictions, whereas in level two systems that feedback acts so as to confound the very attempt to predict them (in some cases; there's also the case of the self-fulfilling prophecy). I'm not really sure any more - it's been a long week!

But on the topic of elections in general and predictions influencing how people vote: I can understand that the closeness or foregone-ness of a particular race might encourage or discourage people to vote at all, but one thing I've never understood is predicted outcome influencing how people vote. Like, why would you change your vote to or from someone based on the chances they will win, instead of based on how much you want them to win? Voting isn't making a bet on who's going to win, you don't get anything just because you voted for the winner, or lose anything because you voted for the loser.


I don't know - I suspect some people do get a strange psychological fillip from voting for the winner, or feel an injury to their self-image if they voted for the loser. Mainly, though, it's about the way it affects turnout; also if it's more than a two-way race (and a FPTP system) it might make people switch from a candidate who's probably going to lose to a second-choice candidate.
xtifr wrote:... and orthogon merely sounds undecided.

sonar1313
Posts: 183
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2013 5:29 am UTC

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby sonar1313 » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:39 pm UTC

Pfhorrest wrote:But on the topic of elections in general and predictions influencing how people vote: I can understand that the closeness or foregone-ness of a particular race might encourage or discourage people to vote at all, but one thing I've never understood is predicted outcome influencing how people vote. Like, why would you change your vote to or from someone based on the chances they will win, instead of based on how much you want them to win? Voting isn't making a bet on who's going to win, you don't get anything just because you voted for the winner, or lose anything because you voted for the loser.


Easy - it's probably the #1 reason third-party candidates have so damn much trouble getting traction. If I like the Libertarian best, am kind of meh-ok with the Republican, and really, really hate the Democrat, who do you think is getting my vote? This phenomenon only gets worse the more we're convinced the other side is deliberately throwing the whole country off a cliff.

It also influences people to stay home, as you've said. If I care about one race and one race only, and my candidate is predicted to win or lose by a wide margin, what's the point of putting in the effort? Which in turn affects other races. (This may be a feature rather than a bug - I am not sure I want disengaged people filling in bubbles just because they're in the booth and might as well.)

Finally, we can't predict outcomes without polls. And polls influence the politicians. I'd rather have the politicians utterly clueless about what the people want - it makes them unable to tailor their message, which in turn would likely decrease the amount of "Incumbent X backtracked on his promise to do Y!" I think we'd have a more honest look at the candidates without polls.

User avatar
Zohar
COMMANDER PORN
Posts: 8508
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2007 8:45 pm UTC
Location: Denver

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby Zohar » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:40 pm UTC

I don't get it. It certainly seems off. Here in Colorado, there's the democrat Jared Polis vs. the republican Walker Stapleton for governor. Pretty much all polls show Polis beating Stapleton, but only Stapleton appears on the map. Neither is the incumbent governor.
Mighty Jalapeno: "See, Zohar agrees, and he's nice to people."
SecondTalon: "Still better looking than Jesus."

Not how I say my name

User avatar
thunk
Posts: 480
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2016 3:29 am UTC
Location: Arguably Exiled

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby thunk » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:43 pm UTC

Zohar wrote:I don't get it. It certainly seems off. Here in Colorado, there's the democrat Jared Polis vs. the republican Walker Stapleton for governor. Pretty much all polls show Polis beating Stapleton, but only Stapleton appears on the map. Neither is the incumbent governor.


For some reason it seems Randall excluded candidates from incumbent parties, not incumbent candidates.
Free markets, free movement, free plops
Blitz on, my friends Quantized, GnomeAnne, and iskinner!
troo dat

User avatar
Zohar
COMMANDER PORN
Posts: 8508
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2007 8:45 pm UTC
Location: Denver

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby Zohar » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:53 pm UTC

That sounds strange. Also without seeing the data behind that, and just showing the map as is, makes it seem like the people on the map are the winners? I'm not sure how this is helpful for the election.
Mighty Jalapeno: "See, Zohar agrees, and he's nice to people."
SecondTalon: "Still better looking than Jesus."

Not how I say my name

User avatar
Alaska Girl
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 8:08 pm UTC
Location: The white North

Re: 2067: "Challengers"

Postby Alaska Girl » Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:40 pm UTC

All this political talk and I'm just wondering how Randall picked which landmarks to include. :P I happen to be pumped because he included Hatcher Pass and Summit Lake (north of Wasilla, AK) because that happens to be my favorite few square miles on the planet.
Hatred is blind, as well as love.


Return to “Individual XKCD Comic Threads”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: mscha and 91 guests