[T] MoA Replay - Game Over - Mafia wins - FBI loses

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:59 am UTC

Lynch a Capo. We need only await your instructions on which Capo to lynch. (Assuming you're not going to make the real investigation results public, anyway.)

From "lynch a capo, maybe get confirmed FBI" I'm assuming that one of the capos reported an FBI result. (The only other possibility is if a Capo investigated another Capo and reported a mafia result.) Think about it... if we lynch a mafia Capo, we get confirmed FBI. If we lynch an FBI capo, we at least buy ourselves some time.

Hmm. I don't think the town (mafia?) as a whole can really make this decision if you don't make the investigation results public.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby Mavketl » Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:08 am UTC

I will make the results public when I have all of them.

I've been refreshing this stuff for like two hours now hoping for that, though, and I really need to get some sleep soon (4am and all). That's why I made that post prematurely so I would at least have some opinions in the morning and we would still have time to make things happen.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby Weeks » Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:16 am UTC

Maybe you shouldn't make the results public...
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby mieulium » Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:29 am UTC

Making results public.....

People lynch the agent and the snitches (though if agent not lynched first the snitch no doesnt change), and since FBI can't NK, and no one will lynch the godfather, nothing happens.

Not making results public.....

People lynch random person they think scum pings. 50% chance of them being recruited.

I am pretty sure the FBI agent knows who is who, so rather, mav has much to lose if made men are not alerted about who is who.

But then, if there's a flaw in my argument tell me. I have a sneaking suspicion I missed out something.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby michaelandjimi » Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:31 am UTC

Mavketl wrote:Hey everyone, I (unsurprisingly) lied to y'all about the amount of investigations we had left and their targets. Right now, I've got a decent idea of a couple of snitches (I was looking for snitches to convert, after all).
It would be nice if we could get some. I hear you get 150 points. ...I'll get my jacket.

mieulium wrote:Making results public.....
The only obstacle I can see is that if we have confirmed town out in the open they're prime recruitment, so they're only trustworthy for a night. If the results remain private, it's more likely that she can trust a Capo. I'm not really sure either way yet though.

Also I'm nervous to pick anyone now. Pretty shocking track record in this game.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby mpolo » Sat Jan 15, 2011 7:52 am UTC

As to giving out information, it's probably best to dribble it out to us as we need it, rather than risk conversion of a confirmed loyal mafioso. (As much as I would like personally to be less in the dark.) Knowing my own loyalty, there's a knee-jerk suspicion of those who have been voting for me, but I'm not sure that that suspicion is more than OMGUS. And with the speed of this game, it's extremely dangerous to start throwing votes around without something more solid than that.

Given the likelihood of a Capo having been converted, a Capo lynch is very tempting, especially if we will confirm one or more investigation results by doing so. We really have to hit a good guy (i.e. FBI or snitch) today, though, because otherwise we're getting really close to LyLO. If I have the numbers correct:

Tonight 8 - 5
If we lynch another loyal member, tomorrow night it's 7 - 6
another wrong lynch: irrecoverable loss (this is mitigated by the possibility of a protection and/or conversion, which complicate the calculations)

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby Mavketl » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:38 am UTC

This is how we'll get the most information:

Vote: michaelandjimi

Please follow this vote.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby ForAllOfThis » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:57 am UTC

Alright. I did say out of the three capos I think MaJ is most likely to be a snitch.

Vote: MaJ

I think we should trust Mav to do the right thing when she get the results. You can't decide what to do with them if you don't know what they are. Different results are going to require different strategies. I would definitely appreciate longer nights. I'm missing the majority of the discussion because of the timezone difference mixed with a suddenly very active social life (returning to uni).

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby mpolo » Sat Jan 15, 2011 9:21 am UTC

Glad I checked in before going out:

Vote: Michaelandjimi
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby Brooklynxman » Sat Jan 15, 2011 9:26 am UTC

Vote: maj

*glare at: mpolo* You're not off the hook yet.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby cycoden » Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:45 pm UTC

As you wish.

Vote: MaJ

My suspicions remain relatively unchanged.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby Lataro » Sat Jan 15, 2011 1:03 pm UTC

Arg! You're not lynching me out of spite, right? :cry:
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby Mavketl » Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:37 pm UTC

No, I'm not lynching you because lynching you wouldn't be nearly as useful, you big crybaby. :P

Anyhow, I won't be online again before the deadline normally. Please just make this lynch happen and all will (hopefully) be fine.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:43 pm UTC

Vote: MaJ

Any particular reason we shouldn't hammer? (This brings MaJ to L-1.)
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby weiyaoli » Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:45 pm UTC

Vote: Maj

MoA did say we could talk after the hammer so someone can always post what they want before this days ends.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby Weeks » Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:01 pm UTC

Oh damn, that went quickly.

As for reread:

FOAT: I think he's right in that MaJ is suspicious, although FOAT's accusations were a bit weak. His "we should no lynch" post didn't seem that scummy to me, although then he switched for BN in a bandwagon, with some weak arguments too. His NaR vote is a bit similar. To his advantage, though, I believe it has been quite difficult to strongly accuse any player throughout the game.

Dr Ug: accused FOAT of advocating NL, then switching to BN. His post with the Chandani vote was quite ok with the pointing out that people should give reasoning and whatnot, and made a good point against NaR (lurking to prevent being recruited is not a good strategy because it's then harder to find the Agent) but he murks his own arguments with fluff and points out that NaR said he was town, which is weak. He finally votes NaR again in a hurry.

I honestly think we have scummier players (capos, brook). More later.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby mieulium » Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:08 pm UTC

Mav, do you want to explain more about it? (You dont need to name names if you are worried... )

But, godfather's rule is gold.

Vote:MaJ


I always thought that MaJ was slightly off skewed. But I don't think he is that skewed.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 4 - 3 down, 13 to go

Postby mieulium » Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:08 pm UTC

EBWOP: I was thinking that he was just weird...
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby MasterOfAll » Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:29 pm UTC

Oh, hey, a bunch of votes. I'd give you a final vote count, but the votes are all grouped together pretty closely, and all for MaJ, so . . . I won't bother.

michaelandjimi has been killed. He was Loyal Mafia.


It is now Night 5.

There are 12 players.

7 Votes needed to kill immediately, or 5 Votes at deadline.


Deadline is 36 hours from this post.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Lataro » Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:34 pm UTC

Point of order... Is this LYLO? Assuming a recruit each day, plus the agent, that makes six possible FBI, with 12 remaining.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby mieulium » Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:36 pm UTC

BTW.

I forgot to add.

I'm going to sleep now, I might possibly be able to squeeze in a read in 8 hours, but other than that, dont expect me to post till after 16 jan 7pm GMT+8. Going to be out the entire whole day for church.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby MasterOfAll » Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:46 pm UTC

Lataro wrote:Point of order... Is this LYLO? Assuming a recruit each day, plus the agent, that makes six possible FBI, with 12 remaining.
Unfortunately, telling you that would be giving out info that y'all are not necessarily supposed to have. So, sorry, you do not get any LyLo or MyLo warnings in this game.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby weiyaoli » Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:34 pm UTC

With that answer, I think we should assume it's LYLO and be more careful with votes in case snitches bandwagon quickly.

I'm also working on a votes analysis at the moment. Posting this so that I will actually finish it.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:37 pm UTC

Swell.

I reported an FBI result on michaelandjimi last night. That was obviously a lie, so Mavketl now knows for 100% sure that I'm FBI.

Why am I saying this out loud, wonder you? Simple: Because I'm probably going to get reconverted, and if I do get reconverted, then I'm not necessarily going to tell y'all this information. It stands to reason that if it's pro-town to reveal this information, I will reveal it after I am reconverted, so the only circumstance where it wouldn't be revealed anyway is the one where it's pro-FBI to reveal it. So I'm telling you this because I think it'll help the FBI.

Suckers. :twisted:
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:49 pm UTC

EBWOP: or, rather, that if it's pro-townmafia to reveal it, Mavketl will reveal it today. It's obviously pro-FBI for me to preempt Mavketl in her decisions, right? :wink: I hope everyone agrees with me here. I would be really sad if anyone thought I wasn't being pro-FBI enough.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby weiyaoli » Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:03 pm UTC

So apart from waiting for the GF to post who we should lynch/look at now, I thought I'd do a vote recollection and some analysis on them:

Key: Votes Bold. FOS italic.

N1 Votes:
Spoiler:
Brooklynxman votes for Lataro
Brooklynxman unvotes Lataro
Lataro votes for Chandani
Dr Ug votes for ForAllOfThis
Mpolo votes for Bio
ForAllOfThis votes for Bignose
Bignose votes for Weeks
Lataro unvotes Chandani
Lataro votes for Bio
Chandani votes for Bio
Bignose unvotes Weeks
Bignose votes for Bio
Lataro foses Weeks
Elvish Pillager votes for Bignose
Brooklynxman votes for Bignose
Cycoden votes for Weeks
Weiyaoli votes for Bignose
Dr Ug unvotes ForAllOfThis
Dr Ug votes for Bignose
Lataro unvotes Bio
Lataro votes for Bignose
NAR votes for Bignose
Mav votes for Bignose


Bignose is lynched. He was Loyal Mafia.


Interesting points for N1:
Spoiler:
1)Brook voting for lataro. I don't understand his reasoning, which was to remind everyone that this game had 24 hour days and we should get on and vote by randomly voting by following his "joke" vote earlier.

2)Lataro's first vote was lurker lynch and then bandwagoned onto whatever lynch had most people on with only the reason to ensure a lynch.

3)Lataro asking for modkills on those who didn't post. Understandable but I would question his reasoning of so a lynch would go through.

The people on the Bignose wagon were:
ForAllOfThis, Elvish Pillager, Brooklynxman, weiyaoli, Dr Ug, Lataro, Not A Raptor, Mavketl


N2 votes:
Spoiler:
Lataro votes for Weeks
Michaelandjimi votes for Chandani

Michaelandjimi inches away from voting for ElvishPillager
Weeks votes for mieulium
ForAllOfThis votes for Not A Raptor
Brooklynxman votes for Mpolo
Mpolo votes for Chandani
Mav votes for Chandani
Weeks unvotes mieulium
ElvishPillager votes for Mpolo
Lataro unvotes Weeks
Lataro votes for Chandani

Weiyaoli foses Lataro
Weiyaoli votes for Chandani
Bio votes for weiyaoli
Dr Ug votes for NAR
Dr Ug unvotes NAR
Dr Ug votes for Chandani
Chandani votes for Mpolo
Bio unvotes weiyaoli
Bio votes for Chandani
Michaelandjimi unvotes Chandani
Michaelandjimi votes for NAR
Elvish Pillager unvotes Mpolo
Elvish Pillager votes for NAR


Chandani is lynched. He is Loyal Mafia.


Interesting points for N2:

Spoiler:
1) Lataro again bandwagoning.

2) Like I said in my post N3 regarding a point Dr Ug made which he still hasn't answered.

3) Bio voting to ensure a lynch when we already reached soft lynch.

The people on the Chandani wagon were:
mpolo, Mavketl, Lataro, weiyaoli, Dr Ug, b.i.o


N3 Votes:
Spoiler:
Elvish Pillager votes for NAR
Brooklynxman votes for Mpolo
Lataro votes for NAR
Mieulium votes for NAR
Cycoden votes for Mpolo
ForAllOfThis votes for NAR
Mav votes for NAR

Weiyaoli and Weeks wants to vote for NAR but holds off
Bio votes for Mpolo
Bio suspects roband, Dr Ug, NAR and brook
Weeks votes for NAR
Dr Ug votes for NAR

NAR is lynched. He was Loyal Mafia.


Interesting Points for N3:
Spoiler:
1) Brook advocating NL.

2) Dr Ug voting for NAR because of "not much time" when soft lynch has already been reached.

3) Brook votes for mpolo again.

People on the NAR wagon or (close):
EP, Lataro, mieulium, ForAllOfThis, Mavketl, Weeks, Dr Ug (Weiyaoli)


Concluding comments to come later.

ninajed by EP claiming FBI. Yeah, really don't follow your logic. Only thing I'd be careful of would be EP actually being the FBI Agent but I guess we kinda have no other choice other than to try to reconvert him and hope he is a snitch.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Weeks » Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:04 pm UTC

Elvish Pillager wrote:Suckers. :twisted:
I am offended.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby weiyaoli » Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:35 pm UTC

Misc:
Spoiler:
People on the N4 Maj wagon (As a point of reference):
Mieulium, weiyaoli, Elvish Pillager, Cycoden, Brooklynxman, ForAllOfThis, Mav.

People on wagons N1,2 and 3:
Dr Ug, Lataro, Mavketl (Included as reference only) and nearly Weiyaoli (I would have voted if Mav didn't ask to have a longer night).


FoS: brook, lataro, dr ug, bio

Lataro has been vote hopping and bandwagoning all game.
Brook for his first vote and unvote on lataro and then getting the NL thing wrong N3.
Dr Ug for that point that I want a reply on as well as voting because of 'not enough time' when there was already sufficient people to deadline lynch.
Bio for the same as Dr Ug, though perhaps less so because of roband not including the deadline lynch number with each post.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Weeks » Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:36 pm UTC

@EP: Also, thanks for explaining your plot to us. It is really helpful and stuff.
Elvish Pillager wrote:I would be really sad if anyone thought I wasn't being pro-FBI enough.
Don't you mean, it would be sad if MoA thought you weren't being pro-FBI enough? Don't worry, I don't think he'll modkill you for revealing your scheme to us.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:55 pm UTC

Don't be silly. I'm telling you my real plans to create wine, because I know you know I'm good enough not to tell you my real plans, so I'm tricking you into thinking there's more to it than that.

Oh, by the way, I've just looked over the thread, and I'm pretty sure Mavketl is in the mafia. She's being too towny!

Vote: Mavketl
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Weeks » Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:20 pm UTC

Elvish Pillager wrote:I'm telling you my real plans to create wine, because I know you know I'm good enough not to tell you my real plans--
Derp.
TaintedDeity wrote:Tainted Deity
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby b.i.o » Sat Jan 15, 2011 7:27 pm UTC

Guess: EP is the FBI Agent, reconversion will fail, and (since I think we're at LyLo) then we'll lose.

I'm going to be gone overnight so I may not be back again during N5.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Weeks » Sat Jan 15, 2011 7:43 pm UTC

b.i.o wrote:Guess: EP is the FBI Agent
We lynch EP then.

It's quite a no-brainer. Of course, we still need Mav's green light.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:06 pm UTC

Aww, really? :) I'd been thinking about deliberately creating Agent wine, but I thought it would be too implausible. I mean, as an Agent, I'd totally have recruited *both* the other Capos, not gone and let Mav get a confirmed FBI with a single lynch! On the other hand, I can't say I have anything against a plan that involves lynching potentially the only sure-fire candidate for reconversion... Who's with me?

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby weiyaoli » Sat Jan 15, 2011 9:52 pm UTC

Weeks wrote:
b.i.o wrote:Guess: EP is the FBI Agent
We lynch EP then.

It's quite a no-brainer. Of course, we still need Mav's green light.


Except for this is LYLO or very close to being so(Though I wouldn't expect this to be the case unless Mav's protects were pretty accurate) so unless you have a better target for reconversion (There's also some WIFOM involved there if any of us would give any suggestions beyond who we think are scummy and why so Mav can judge for herself) we might have to go with Elvish Pillager and ignore the wine he's spilling everywhere right now.

But I guess it's up to Mav right now, she might have more information than just this from the other investigation results.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby ForAllOfThis » Sat Jan 15, 2011 11:44 pm UTC

Lynching EP would be a pretty bad idea as the only confirmed FBI (as far as we know). You should definitely try to convert him Mav. There is only a 1 in 6 (or 1 in 5, if a conversion block worked) chance that he is the agent. This means that we have a 83% chance of reconverting and 80% chance of reconverting respectively. They're pretty good odds.

If we lynch EP and he's not the agent then tomorrow the best chance of a re-conversion would be 5/10 = 50% or 4/10 = 40% chance of a successful conversion attempt (if you were to convert at random), a decent educated guess though might make it more likely. The best chance for us to win the game now would be to convert.

The problem is this, if EP is the agent then the snitches are going to try to convince you to convert and if he's not then they're quite likely to convince you to lynch. The rest of us are going to have our own ideas and I like thinking about things with regards to chance. That's why I'm making my argument to convert, logically it gives us the best chance of winning.

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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Sat Jan 15, 2011 11:53 pm UTC

I quite agree, FAOT. That's very logical.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Sun Jan 16, 2011 12:12 am UTC

And don't forget that the FBI don't necessarily know each other. So even if I don't get converted, I still might point you to an FBI Snitch purely at random.
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby mieulium » Sun Jan 16, 2011 1:26 am UTC

Elvish Pillager wrote:And don't forget that the FBI don't necessarily know each other. So even if I don't get converted, I still might point you to an FBI Snitch purely at random.


Oh, and if you're a snitch, how would you know someone else is a snitch>
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Re: [T] MoA Replay - Night 5 - 4 down, 12 to go

Postby Elvish Pillager » Sun Jan 16, 2011 1:39 am UTC

Simple - each of us Snitches is told the identity of the Snitch who recruited them.
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