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Krong
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Krong » Mon Jun 13, 2011 4:08 am UTC

Weeks wrote:It sounds like people are getting pissed off about their meta. What's up with that? What can/should be done about it?

IMO, "I'm bothered about meta" is code for "the games are getting stale" which is code for "we need more people". Either that or a seminar on "how to change your meta".

Other possible solutions:
* games with sockpuppets (isn't Asylumafia 2 coming up soon?)
* games with different mechanics (Resistance, as the last game showed, is a bit less about finding scum than typical Mafia, and thus can lead to different play)

I think any discussion beyond this would head into discussing current games.

Also, some say playing scum is harder than playing town. I think this is true, but again, do we just accept it or what? It's also less likely for people to be scum...What do you think?

Basically, playing scum is harder because lying is harder than telling the truth. I don't think there's a way around that, or that it's a problem.

There are a couple of things we can do to improve games that will also tend to help scum, though:

1. Fairly strict deadlines that require brisk conversation. In a game of any size with no day actions, I'd say 7-10 days is plenty of time. Beyond that, you're just humoring lazy townies, and forcing scum to talk longer at risk of giving something away.
2. Fairly strict participation requirements. I think it's been said that townies are more likely to lurk and just not post for 4-5 days than scum, so making sure that inactivity is punished will help scum *cough* INCEPTION *cough* :D
3. For the love of all that is holy, no more flavor games where massclaiming is a viable strategy. And no, making threats against claiming doesn't cut it. Nor does having a lyncher-type player or two.

Ninja'd:

Yeah, I've been thinking about that lately, too. Especially after reading Lataro saying that the coded conversations we had were a major reason for him dropping out of Inception (caveat: this might have been said in a game... I can't quite remember).

I think the listener role, as employed in fora games here, is now broken. As soon as mafia expects it, they employ codes against it. And given that those codes could really be any level of complexity (straight-up encryption, anyone?), the only way for the listener to be sure they're hearing "real" scumchat is to have access to ALL of it, including the initial "here are the codes" messages. So... if the listener doesn't hear everything, they hear nothing if the scum put in the overhead work. And if they don't hear everything, there's no point to it if scum put in the overhead. So yeah, it's just overhead, assuming scum is reasonably competent and thinking about listeners.

The other problem is that mods often scrub scumchat for names... which is starting to get to a level of mod interference I'm not comfortable with. Why names and not other things?

Traitor roles depend a lot on how they're implemented, so I'm not sure I can make a blanket like/dislike of them.
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Lataro
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Lataro » Mon Jun 13, 2011 5:16 am UTC

First off, yes, replacements have become a huge issue here. While how to deal with people who constantly need to be replaced and all that is important, I think that smaller game sizes will help as well. No offense intended here, but when you want to run a game that will require almost everyone active on the forums playing it for it to run, then you are just begging for trouble. I've said for some time, we have a population issue, and its getting worse. If I sat here and thought about it, I could pry come up with 20 names easily of people who had been around for some length of time before I started here just over a year ago, who no longer play. While we have a number of new faces since then, the losses far outweigh the gains. Large games just aren't viable here, from a body count perspective. I'd argue that a 20 player game is pry stretching the best that we can do under good circumstances.

As for meta, in a sense, yes, the fact that you keep playing against the same people each game isn't exactly varied and breeds this problem. For me, it's gotten to the point where it seems virtually impossible to play a game and make a post and not be seen as scum for it. There is definitely a sense of "no point of playing" with things as they are for me.

As for scum being harder than town. Speaking as someone who enjoys scum wins far more than town wins, it's because they are harder to earn, and it's that much sweeter. Anyone complaining that it's harder to play scum than town and then uses that as an excuse for not trying or sucking badly at it annoys me, regardless of the side I'm on. Scum definitely takes more effort than town on a personal level to achieve a win, but that doesn't mean a defeatist attitude should be adopted. A large problem I've noticed from various games I've been in, is that people are generally against making bold plays as scum. This is virtually required IMO. I know I've done some crazy stunts in the past, but outside a handful of people, I've not really seen anyone else make such moves. They try and play scum by just acting townie and being passive. This is the biggest factor that leads to sub-par scum gameplay IMO. It doesn't mean you have to make crazy plays all the time, but you should look for angles you can utilize to try and force a scum win. Most the time in open or semi-open setups, I'll sit there and think of, "If we lynch x, and NK y, how will this play out the next day if we lynch z and NK w." Planning far ahead and looking for openings is key, and just lazily saying, "We should kill x, it'll create wine!" without a specific goal in mind is generally pointless. Lack of bold action and failure to plan ahead, combined with apathy that "being scum is too hard" is what makes most people around here rather poor scum players. They may get wins here and there, but they do so more though luck or bad town plays, than as a result of good scum strats.

As for listeners. Krong is correct in saying that about me. The code used in Inception just left me thinking, "This is such a huge pain in the ass to deal with... fuck it." I hate them in general, however, as a player, I'd rather just say screw the code, if the mod wants to give scum names/chat/ability lists/ect to a random player, whatever, that's their problem. I'd much rather keep it simple, and play as if there wasn't a listener. If one exists and claims the next day and tells everyone who scum are, what their powers are, and everything else, then it'll be a short game, and I'll gladly watch the loss happen while putting no more effort in, if the mod allows such a thing to happen. Personally, as far as listeners roles have gone, I've liked Silknor's approach. He generally sends excepts, which contain very little useful info, but can be used as part of the larger picture, and at endgame to try and find false claims. In his games, I've never really seen the need for a code, since I never really felt he would give something away that would ruin the game.

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Krong
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Krong » Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:18 am UTC

Lataro wrote:The code used in Inception just left me thinking, "This is such a huge pain in the ass to deal with... fuck it."

Tried to keep them somewhat... "playful?"... because of this, but sorry if that didn't turn out that way. It did seem that people wound up with quotes from our chat, though, so FWIW, the codes mattered somewhat.

Your paragraph about playing scum is awesome to the point that I think it should be stickied. A few notes with it though:

-- The problem with boldness and having a plan is that it provides town an obvious thing to look at and interpret. Playing passive and random, OTOH, does not. And honestly, I think the best scum teams have a mixture of styles among the different players. The guy who's bold is going to do damage but not last the game; having someone who's stayed out of sight due to the behavior of the bold guy is how you win in the endgame. In both Inception and AC, weiyaoli was really good at the passive bit, while the rest of us generally screwed around and got into trouble. (I'm especially thinking of AC Animus here).

-- The other thing is that it's hard to come up with bold scum moves that are reasonable bold town moves, especially in closed games where scum doesn't have all that much more info than town. You really have to have all the pieces working together. For instance, in Inception, Weeks was able to convince PhoenixEnigma that he was a senator with a limbo-return ability. There was a lot that went into that:
1. Believable rolename
2. Believable ability (which could have blown up on us if Limbo was revealed to be something different)
3. Faking of the ability through flavor
4. Motivation (protect obvious inception target), which was based on
5. False game setup idea (President is target, not PE), which required
6. Flavor to subtly reinforce the "Prez is target" meme
7. Weeks' behavior being townie enough to avoid direct suspicion
8. Other actions (use of anon PMs, level of willingness to claim) that jived with all the rest


The other thing about this: even given that all of this was working well, we were still quite far from convincing PE to kill himself. By that point, the most we had going was (1) town thinking the president was a target, if not the target (2) PE thinking he had limbo protection, and probably that Weeks was town (3) Brook thinking he was a werewolf in charge of designing spacecraft tubing for NASA. Therefore, even though we came up with a bold scum move that looked like a bold town move.... it didn't get us that much closer to a win. "Not saying scummy things" was the key, as it usually is.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby VectorZero » Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:24 am UTC

For an OTT example of my hate for listener roles, check out Amy's Surprise. Scum was outed, in an open setup with obvious scum rolenames and no vanilla roles, by a 2-day/2-night lynch&NK immune player who got the PM text and the target (me). Both outed. *headdesk*
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Lataro
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Lataro » Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:52 am UTC

Krong wrote:
Lataro wrote:The code used in Inception just left me thinking, "This is such a huge pain in the ass to deal with... fuck it."

Tried to keep them somewhat... "playful?"... because of this, but sorry if that didn't turn out that way. It did seem that people wound up with quotes from our chat, though, so FWIW, the codes mattered somewhat.


It was more of... "Holy crap, that was a long message, now I have to spend 20 minutes translating that? Ugh." It wasn't the only reason I dropped though, I got a modprod for activity, and said to myself, "I really don't know what to say here... there is nothing that jumps out to me to comment on, the replacement list is pretty full though right now, and this code is giving me a real headache having to deal with, I'll let someone else have the spot if they really want in."

Krong wrote:Your paragraph about playing scum is awesome to the point that I think it should be stickied.


When I saw this topic come up about scum being too hard, I seriously considered offering a "How to not suck at scum" seminar. :lol:

Krong wrote:-- The problem with boldness and having a plan is that it provides town an obvious thing to look at and interpret. Playing passive and random, OTOH, does not. And honestly, I think the best scum teams have a mixture of styles among the different players. The guy who's bold is going to do damage but not last the game; having someone who's stayed out of sight due to the behavior of the bold guy is how you win in the endgame. In both Inception and AC, weiyaoli was really good at the passive bit, while the rest of us generally screwed around and got into trouble. (I'm especially thinking of AC Animus here).

-- The other thing is that it's hard to come up with bold scum moves that are reasonable bold town moves, especially in closed games where scum doesn't have all that much more info than town. You really have to have all the pieces working together. For instance, in Inception, Weeks was able to convince PhoenixEnigma that he was a senator with a limbo-return ability. There was a lot that went into that:
1. Believable rolename
2. Believable ability (which could have blown up on us if Limbo was revealed to be something different)
3. Faking of the ability through flavor
4. Motivation (protect obvious inception target), which was based on
5. False game setup idea (President is target, not PE), which required
6. Flavor to subtly reinforce the "Prez is target" meme
7. Weeks' behavior being townie enough to avoid direct suspicion
8. Other actions (use of anon PMs, level of willingness to claim) that jived with all the rest


The other thing about this: even given that all of this was working well, we were still quite far from convincing PE to kill himself. By that point, the most we had going was (1) town thinking the president was a target, if not the target (2) PE thinking he had limbo protection, and probably that Weeks was town (3) Brook thinking he was a werewolf in charge of designing spacecraft tubing for NASA. Therefore, even though we came up with a bold scum move that looked like a bold town move.... it didn't get us that much closer to a win. "Not saying scummy things" was the key, as it usually is.



I fully agree that if everyone just went and was bold, it'd be a short game, you definitely need someone whom you can work to getting townie status for the endgame, in most situations at least.


Statistically, the first one to claim cop with a scum result gets more credibility than their counter claimer, yet, virtually no one ever does it. Claiming other roles besides cop can be beneficial as well, if only to out the real one. If you put your mind to it, you can find angles to work with most anything. If no NK occurs on a given night, you can claim roleblocker and take credit for it and "out" a target. You can also claim doctor at MYLO/LYLO or other such situations and claim your target as a way to "help" town narrow down the lynching field. Hell, you can even claim cop, get a counterclaim, back down saying you had a read on someone and thought they were scum, and were trying to draw the NK as VT and protect the cop. Whenever you are in a situation where gaining one more townie lynch, or outing a specific role is worth the loss of a scum, it should be strongly considered. Even if you are not believed, you throw up such a dust cloud for the day that you let the other scum hide in it, and keep the topic "safe" for them. There are a number of times I'll be in a game as scum or watching one and just be screaming at the other scum in my mind, "It doesn't matter, stop dragging your feet, if this one thing goes though, we could all be outed when the reveal is done, and it would not matter!" and they just keep playing it safe. I think this was part of the problem in Chaos, scum had a horribly dismal chance of winning that game due to the setup and mass claim breaking the crap out of it, and I just wanted to scream at Dr Ug to realize that we had a possible D2 win in the bag if we got lucky with our kill targets, and that that luck, short of a horrible townie play, was our only chance. To me, in those, rather rare, situations, it is more apparent than ever that the majority of people don't put much thought into scum strats. There is definitely a time to be passive, but if you can assess a possible win with whatever bold play someone else is trying to make, you got to be willing to make the leap. You may lose it all, but if you don't, 9 times out of 10, the person making the move will just be hung out to dry for nothing.

That really is my point here about scum play. People simply need to be more aware of their options, the possible gains from various moves they could make, and be willing to bet it all when it's a good move to make. If everyone is just passive though, then yeah, as I said, you will win here and there, but mostly that's due to luck rather than actively being earned. A wins a win really, but I'd rather have fun with grand schemes and such than sit on my ass and hope it comes to me.
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RoadieRich
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby RoadieRich » Tue Jun 28, 2011 6:30 pm UTC

Anyone want to suggest why so few people signed up for WhMK?
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Elvish Pillager » Tue Jun 28, 2011 8:10 pm UTC

Lack of flavor knowledge among our base? Unfavorable reputation of the mod? Absence of other selling points?
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby GLaDOS. » Tue Jun 28, 2011 8:21 pm UTC

Less players seem to be around than before. Look at wizardry 2.5, its an awesome mafia game, but the dropout has been exceptionally high and the replacements low. All Large/Mediums seem to be struggling with signups. It took ages for Homestar Scummer to gather signups and have had a huge drop-out ratio as well. The game has been going for a few months now I believe? It may be that the distance between large/medium/small needs to be brought down to accomodate the lack of interest.

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Re: Meta discussion

Postby RoadieRich » Tue Jun 28, 2011 8:21 pm UTC

Elvish Pillager wrote:Lack of flavor knowledge among our base? Unfavorable reputation of the mod? Absence of other selling points?

I was kinda hoping for something more specific than that. i just cba writing the question.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby mpolo » Tue Jun 28, 2011 9:07 pm UTC

I held off forever on that one for lack of flavor knowledge, but I did sign up in the end.

We're kind of in a doldrums at the moment. I suppose we have to keep with small games until things catch on fire again.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Misnomer » Fri Jul 01, 2011 12:16 pm UTC

Hey people, quick question:
I've got a game in the Vanilla queue at the moment - which setup would you say would work best?

Setup A: 2 Scum, 1 Cop, 1 Tracker, 1 Watcher and 4 Town
Setup B: 2 Scum, 1 Cop, 1 Tracker, 1 Watcher, 1 Miller and 3 Town
Setup C: 2 Scum, 1 Cop, 1 Tracker, 1 Watcher, 1 Miller (naive) and 3 Town.

NB: if multiple people target the watcher's target, he will only see one of them, randomly selected.


My instincts would be to say setup C, but I don't know if having a naive role would be going too far for a Vanilla game?
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby VectorZero » Fri Jul 01, 2011 12:20 pm UTC

C.

I don't think vanilla should stop you using a naive miller should you run an open setup. I think it's a device that is underused in this forum. Other issue to consider: reveal roles on death? If yes, definitely C.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Misnomer » Fri Jul 01, 2011 1:29 pm UTC

VectorZero wrote:C.

I don't think vanilla should stop you using a naive miller should you run an open setup. I think it's a device that is underused in this forum. Other issue to consider: reveal roles on death? If yes, definitely C.

Yeah, I'd be doing the standard 'roles revealed the morning after death', including revealing the miller.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Mavketl » Fri Jul 01, 2011 1:48 pm UTC

Normally, I would probably advise against a naive miller in a beginner/vanilla set-up, but with the watcher and tracker roles it seems fair (since the miller is only a disadvantage when it comes to a cop, and not to the other investigative roles). You're giving town a lot of investigations, it sounds like a good plan to compensate for that with a miller.

Out of interest, is there a pre-selected scum member who executes the NK, or do they get to choose which one of them does it?
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Misnomer » Fri Jul 01, 2011 2:05 pm UTC

Mavketl wrote:Normally, I would probably advise against a naive miller in a beginner/vanilla set-up, but with the watcher and tracker roles it seems fair (since the miller is only a disadvantage when it comes to a cop, and not to the other investigative roles). You're giving town a lot of investigations, it sounds like a good plan to compensate for that with a miller.

Out of interest, is there a pre-selected scum member who executes the NK, or do they get to choose which one of them does it?

Scum would get to choose - it adds a bit more depth to scum strategy that way.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Elvish Pillager » Fri Jul 01, 2011 6:51 pm UTC

Misnomer wrote:Hey people, quick question:
I've got a game in the Vanilla queue at the moment - which setup would you say would work best?

Setup A: 2 Scum, 1 Cop, 1 Tracker, 1 Watcher and 4 Town
Setup B: 2 Scum, 1 Cop, 1 Tracker, 1 Watcher, 1 Miller and 3 Town
Setup C: 2 Scum, 1 Cop, 1 Tracker, 1 Watcher, 1 Miller (naive) and 3 Town.

NB: if multiple people target the watcher's target, he will only see one of them, randomly selected.

I know this isn't the question you asked, but: The town can make B into a 100% guaranteed town win by massclaiming, and A and C aren't too far behind that.

Spoiler'd for long discussion of the details:
Spoiler:
Both scum counterclaim an investigative role or miller -> four lynches guarantees a town win.
Both scum claim vanilla -> Lynch a vanilla D1. The watcher watches the cop N1. Worst-case scenario, you always lynch town, the scum always dodge the tracker, and the scum kill the watcher, then the cop, then the tracker. That still gives you one confirmed town from the cop's investigation, which makes the setup be 5 confirmed town vs. 2 unconfirmed and 2 scum; four lynches guarantees a town win. If the scum kill the cop N1, then you know that scum the next day, and the tracker's investigation is 100% reliable after that.
One scum claims vanilla and one claims cop -> Lynch a vanilla, make one "cop" promise to investigate another vanilla, track that "cop", and watch the tracker. If they NK the cop or cop target, they've done your work for you by killing someone who's not confirmed. If they NK the tracker, the watcher knows a scum and the cop returned a result that will be useful later. If they NK anyone else, then you've confirmed which cop is real.
One scum claims vanilla and one claims tracker -> Lynch a vanilla, watch the cop and the cop investigates one "tracker". If they kill the cop, the watcher found a scum and you get one good tracker investigation. If they kill the watcher (or miller), you know the real tracker, so you lynch the fake tracker and get at least one more reliable cop or tracker investigation for the win.
One scum claims vanilla and the other claims watcher -> Lynch a vanilla, make the watcher watch a vanilla, cop one "watcher" and track the other. You guarantee knowing which watcher is fake after that, so you lynch the fake watcher, have the real watcher watch the/a remaining investigative role, and get at least one more reliable investigation for the win.
One scum claims vanilla and the other claims miller -> Lynch a "miller", have the cop and tracker investigate vanillas, watch the cop. If you lynched the fake miller, you've won. If you lynched the real miller, then you lynch the fake miller D2 and the tracker's investigation is now reliable, so you get at least one more reliable investigation for the win.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby weiyaoli » Fri Jul 01, 2011 7:00 pm UTC

The main problem is you have 2 scum in a 9 player game with lots of town power roles and no scum power roles. You need to either add another scum, add a godfather/rb etc... or even both which is why town can 100% using what EP described above.
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Lataro
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Lataro » Sat Nov 12, 2011 12:30 am UTC

So... how many actual active players do we have now? It seems like it's less than 15...
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Adacore » Sat Nov 12, 2011 3:13 pm UTC

I keep thinking about getting back active again, but I really don't have the time :|

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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Krong » Sun Nov 13, 2011 3:45 am UTC

So I've been bouncing an idea around that may be relevant here... we should have a big Mafia subforum event to try to get new people involved and old people to come back.

Here's what I'm going for:
  • We pick a date, maybe 1-2 months from now (around the New Year, perhaps?)
  • We enlist several mods to start a variety of games starting on that date. Definitely would want at least 1 or 2 simple/vanilla games in there.
  • We advertise around the forum -- i.e., have in our signatures links (with pictures!) that go to the event thread.
  • Theme? Sure, if we can think of one!

Basically, for those of you who play TF2, something like their Halloween or class update events -- get people excited, bring them in (or back in).

What do you think?
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Vieto » Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:28 am UTC

Krong wrote:So I've been bouncing an idea around that may be relevant here... we should have a big Mafia subforum event to try to get new people involved and old people to come back.

Here's what I'm going for:
  • We pick a date, maybe 1-2 months from now (around the New Year, perhaps?)
  • We enlist several mods to start a variety of games starting on that date. Definitely would want at least 1 or 2 simple/vanilla games in there.
  • We advertise around the forum -- i.e., have in our signatures links (with pictures!) that go to the event thread.
  • Theme? Sure, if we can think of one!

Basically, for those of you who play TF2, something like their Halloween or class update events -- get people excited, bring them in (or back in).

What do you think?


I like it. I've been bouncing a few ideas around in my head (One of which is TF2-themed), but new-year may not be the best time, as people may be on vacation, away from their computers. Chinese new-year, perhaps?

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Re: Meta discussion

Postby roband » Sun Nov 13, 2011 9:44 pm UTC

Sounds good to me. If we can arrange to there to be no games active when we start all the 'event games', that means more people will be inclined to sign up.
(Personally, I start jonesing after 48 hours without mafia related activities! haha).

I'd gladly mod a game and play in a coupla others.

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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Vieto » Sun Nov 13, 2011 10:01 pm UTC

Yeah. I have a batman-themes mafia game cooked up (25 players). I'm just waiting on getting permission from the person who hosted the original Batmafia game.

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Re: Meta discussion

Postby _infina_ » Mon Nov 14, 2011 2:53 am UTC

I'll hold my large game off for that. If no one else has any large game to insert before Firefly, I would be willing to attempt Sailor Moon mafia again.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby roband » Mon Nov 14, 2011 8:34 am UTC

a large AND Vieto's 25 person batmafia?

I think we need to make sure we don't overdo this.

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Re: Meta discussion

Postby mpolo » Mon Nov 14, 2011 8:51 am UTC

It does sound like a great idea, though.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon Nov 14, 2011 9:43 am UTC

If we're getting new players in, it might be a good idea to not have the large games, as they do have a tendency to go really slowly, and have alot of lurkers. I reckon multiple 12 player games will be more of a success.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby webby » Mon Nov 14, 2011 10:11 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:If we're getting new players in, it might be a good idea to not have the large games, as they do have a tendency to go really slowly, and have alot of lurkers. I reckon multiple 12 player games will be more of a success.


Agree with this.

In response to the original question about how many active players we have, it's 21 across the four games going on right now:

3 games:
ForAllOfThis
webby
mpolo
Mavketl

2 games:
Gopher of Pern
weiyaoli
greenlover
DaBigCheez
BoomFrog
Angua
Chandani

1 game:
Adam H
bantler
Silknor
keeneal
AngrySquirrel
Misnomer
roband
RoadieRich
slbub
PhoenixEnigma

I'd be interested to know whether that's more or less than usual (and hopefully this will help serve that purpose for others interested in that question in the future). I've only been around since the beginning of the year, but my suspicion is that there are less active players (there are sometimes single games that have 20, right?)

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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Adacore » Mon Nov 14, 2011 2:08 pm UTC

On both the previous counts I can remember, we've had around 50 active players.

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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Mavketl » Mon Nov 14, 2011 2:27 pm UTC

I'll gladly use my signature for promotion purposes when the time comes. Also I'll make sure to play in at least one of the games, even though Jan/Feb is going to be a busy period for me.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Nov 15, 2011 2:49 am UTC

I agree we should stick to a lot of small games, maybe one big one. I'd be happy to mod a vanillaish game around Jan/Feb.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Vieto » Tue Nov 15, 2011 4:56 am UTC

Heh. Yeah, batman isn't really the best choice for a first game, I guess. I'll save it for after the potential influx.

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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Krong » Tue Nov 15, 2011 6:42 am UTC

:D

Alright, let's do this. Making a new thread so the Meta thread doesn't get cluttered.

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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Deva » Thu Jan 26, 2012 7:31 pm UTC

(Updated on April 13, 2012.)
Compiled last year's Mafia game data.
Classifications, data notes, and exceptions:
Spoiler:
- Awarded one win per game. Only gave Independents the win if neither Town nor Mafia won. Considered a tie between Mafia factions as a Mafia victory.
- Selected games whose threads were created on or between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2011. Exception: King of Mafia’s fourth cycle.
- Counted a game as "started" upon the thread's creation. Counted a game as "finished" at the moderator's declaration of victory.
- Deemed time-traveled days as distinct from the original. As in, Day One -> Day Two -> Day Three -> Day Two -> Day Three -> Day Four = six game days. Only viewed them as distinct if the entire game moved, not just select people.
- Contains some games of townless setups (examples: Lataro’s PYP Bastard NES and WTF Mafia).
- Contains three lynchless games (see: the Resistance games).
- Collected only completed game data.

Total number of games: 69.
Median number of players: 10.
Median number of game days: 4.
Median number of real life days: 25.
Mean number of real life days: 30.145.

Most times lynched on Day One:
1. more_people (6)
2. cjdrum (4)
3. existential_elevator (3)
3. BoomFrog (3)
3. Lataro (3)
3. Gopher of Pern (3)

Overall Wins:
Spoiler:
Mafia Overall Pie 2.jpg

Win Timeline:
Spoiler:
Mafia Victory Timeline 2.jpg

Small and Large Game Wins:
Spoiler:
Mafia Small Games 2.jpg
Mafia Large Games 2.jpg

Day One Lynch Distribution:
Spoiler:
Mafia Lynch Breakdown 2.jpg

Victory Breakdowns after X Lynch:
Spoiler:
Mafia Town Lynch Winners 2.jpg

Mafia Mafia Lynch Winners 2.jpg

Mafia Indepenent Lynch Winners 2.jpg

Mafia No Lynch Winners 2.jpg

Attached the spreadsheet below.
Mafia Stats.xls
(53.5 KiB) Downloaded 64 times

Spoilered the R code. Please note the file type and name.
Spoiler:

Code: Select all

data = read.csv("Mafia Stats CSV.csv", header = T, sep = ",")
dataframe = as.data.frame(data)
k = 1
TWin = 0
MWin = 0
IWin = 0
while(k <= length(data$Game.Name))
{
   if(data$Winner[k] == "Town")
   {
      TWin = TWin + 1
   }
   if(data$Winner[k] == "Mafia")
   {
      MWin = MWin + 1
   }
   if(data$Winner[k] == "Independent")
   {
      IWin = IWin + 1
   }
   k = k + 1
}

#Overall Wins
winvector = c(TWin, MWin, IWin)
percentagevector = c(TWin, MWin, IWin)
percentagevector = round(100 * percentagevector / (length(data$Game.Name)), digits = 1)
k = 1
while(k <= length(percentagevector))
{
   percentagevector[k] = paste(percentagevector[k],"%", sep = "")
   k = k + 1
}
pie(winvector, col = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"), labels = percentagevector,
main = c("Overall Game Victories"))
legend(x = c("topright"), legend = c("Town", "Mafia", "Independent"), fill = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"))

k = 1
TLynch = 0
MLynch = 0
ILynch = 0
NLynch = 0
while(k <= length(data$Game.Name))
{
   if(data$First.Lynch[k] == "Town")
   {
      TLynch = TLynch + 1
   }
   if(data$First.Lynch[k] == "Mafia")
   {
      MLynch = MLynch + 1
   }
   if(data$First.Lynch[k] == "Independent")
   {
      ILynch = ILynch + 1
   }
   if(data$First.Lynch[k] == "No Lynch")
   {
      NLynch = NLynch + 1
   }
   k = k + 1
}

#Lynch Distribution
lynchvector = c(TLynch, MLynch, ILynch, NLynch)

text(x=barplot(lynchvector, col = c("Purple", "Black", "Green", "Yellow"), names.arg = c("Town", "Mafia",
"Independent", "No Lynch"), main = c("First Lynch Breakdown"),
ylab = c("Number of Lynches"), ylim = c(0, 40)),y=lynchvector,label=format(lynchvector), po = 3)

#Town First Lynch
TTWin = 0
TMWin = 0
TIWin = 0

#Mafia First Lynch
MTWin = 0
MMWin = 0
MIWin = 0

#Independent First Lynch
ITWin = 0
IMWin = 0
IIWin = 0

#No Lynch First Lynch
NTWin = 0
NMWin = 0
NIWin = 0

k = 1
while(k <= length(data$Game.Name))
{
   if(data$First.Lynch[k] == "Town")
   {
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Town")
      {
         TTWin = TTWin + 1
      }
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Mafia")
      {
         TMWin = TMWin + 1
      }
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Independent")
      {
         TIWin = TIWin + 1
      }
   }
   if(data$First.Lynch[k] == "Mafia")
   {
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Town")
      {
         MTWin = MTWin + 1
      }
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Mafia")
      {
         MMWin = MMWin + 1
      }
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Independent")
      {
         MIWin = MIWin + 1
      }
   }
   if(data$First.Lynch[k] == "Independent")
   {
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Town")
      {
         ITWin = ITWin + 1
      }
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Mafia")
      {
         IMWin = IMWin + 1
      }
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Independent")
      {
         IIWin = IIWin + 1
      }
   }
   if(data$First.Lynch[k] == "No Lynch")
   {
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Town")
      {
         NTWin = NTWin + 1
      }
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Mafia")
      {
         NMWin = NMWin + 1
      }
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Independent")
      {
         NIWin = NIWin + 1
      }
   }
   k = k + 1
}

winmatrix = matrix(0, nrow = 4, ncol = 3)
row.names(winmatrix) = c("Town Lynch", "Mafia Lynch", "Independent Lynch", "No Lynch")
colnames(winmatrix) = c("Town Win", "Mafia Win", "Independent Win")
winmatrix[1,1] = TTWin
winmatrix[2,1] = MTWin
winmatrix[3,1] = ITWin
winmatrix[4,1] = NTWin
winmatrix[1,2] = TMWin
winmatrix[2,2] = MMWin
winmatrix[3,2] = IMWin
winmatrix[4,2] = NMWin
winmatrix[1,3] = TIWin
winmatrix[2,3] = MIWin
winmatrix[3,3] = IIWin
winmatrix[4,3] = NIWin

percentframe = as.data.frame(winmatrix)
k = 1
while(k <= 4)
{
   m = 1
   while(m <= 3)
   {
      percentframe[k,m] = 100 * round(as.numeric(percentframe[k,m]) / sum(winmatrix[k,]), digits = 3)
      percentframe[k,m] = paste(percentframe[k,m],"%", sep = "")
      m = m + 1
   }
   k = k + 1
}

pie(winmatrix[1,], col = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"), labels = percentframe[1,],
main = c("Game Winner of an Initial Town Lynch"))
legend(x = c("topright"), legend = colnames(winmatrix), fill = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"))

pie(winmatrix[2,], labels = percentframe[2,], col = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"),
main = c("Game Winner of an Initial Mafia Lynch"))
legend(x = c("topright"), legend = colnames(winmatrix), fill = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"))

pie(winmatrix[3,], labels = percentframe[3,], col = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"),
main = c("Game Winner of an Initial Independent Lynch"))
legend(x = c("topright"), legend = colnames(winmatrix), fill = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"))

pie(winmatrix[4,], labels = percentframe[4,], col = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"),
main = c("Game Winner of an Initial No Lynch"))
legend(x = c("topleft"), legend = colnames(winmatrix), fill = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"))

#Total victories graph
timeline = matrix(0, nrow = 3, ncol = length(data$Game.Name))
rownames(timeline) = c("Town Victories", "Mafia Victories", "Independent Victories")
k = 1
while(k <= length(data$Game.Name))
{
   if(k == 1)
   {
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Town")
      {
         timeline[1,k] = 1
      }
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Mafia")
      {
         timeline[2,k] = 1
      }
      if(data$Winner[k] == "Independent")
      {
         timeline[3,k] = 1
      }
      k = k + 1
   }   

   
   if(data$Winner[k] == "Town")
   {
      timeline[1,k] = timeline[1,(k-1)] + 1
      timeline[2,k] = timeline[2,(k-1)]
      timeline[3,k] = timeline[3,(k-1)]
   }
   if(data$Winner[k] == "Mafia")
   {
      timeline[1,k] = timeline[1,(k-1)]
      timeline[2,k] = timeline[2,(k-1)] + 1
      timeline[3,k] = timeline[3,(k-1)]
   }
   if(data$Winner[k] == "Independent")
   {
      timeline[1,k] = timeline[1,(k-1)]
      timeline[2,k] = timeline[2,(k-1)]
      timeline[3,k] = timeline[3,(k-1)] + 1
   }
   k = k + 1
}

plot(x = 1:length(data$Game.Name), y = timeline[1,], col = c("Purple"), type = "l", lwd = 3,
xlab = c("Game Number"), ylab = c("Win Total"), main = c("Win Totals for Each Faction over Time"))
lines(x = 1:length(data$Game.Name), y = timeline[2,], col = c("Black"), lwd = 3)
lines(x = 1:length(data$Game.Name), y = timeline[3,], col = c("Green"), lwd = 3)
abline(h = 5, lty = 3)
abline(h = 10, lty = 3)
abline(h = 15, lty = 3)
abline(h = 20, lty = 3)
abline(h = 25, lty = 3)
abline(h = 30, lty = 3)
abline(h = 35, lty = 3)
abline(h = 40, lty = 3)
legend(x = c("topleft"), fill = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"), legend = c("Town", "Mafia", "Independent"))

#Pairs Graphs
colorVector = rep(0, nrow(data))
colorVector[data$Winner == "Town"] = 6  #The color purple
colorVector[data$Winner == "Mafia"] = 1  #The color black
colorVector[data$Winner == "Independent"] = 3  #The color green
pairs(data[,c(-1,-(5:7))], col=colorVector, pch=19, upper.panel = NULL)

#Small versus Large
smallgames = vector(length = 7)
largegames = vector(length = 7)
k = 1
while(k <= length(data$Game.Name))
{
   if(data$Player.Count[k] <= 9)
   {
      smallgames = rbind(smallgames, data[k,])
   }
   else
   {
      largegames = rbind(largegames, data[k,])
   }
   k = k + 1
}   
smallgames = smallgames[-1,]
largegames = largegames[-1,]

smallTWin = 0
smallMWin = 0
smallIWin = 0
largeTWin = 0
largeMWin = 0
largeIWin = 0
k = 1
while(k <= length(smallgames$Game.Name))
{
   if(smallgames$Winner[k] == "Town")
   {
      smallTWin = smallTWin + 1
   }
   if(smallgames$Winner[k] == "Mafia")
   {
      smallMWin = smallMWin + 1
   }
   if(smallgames$Winner[k] == "Independent")
   {
      smallIWin = smallIWin + 1
   }
   k = k + 1
}
k = 1
while(k <= length(largegames$Game.Name))
{
   if(largegames$Winner[k] == "Town")
   {
      largeTWin = largeTWin + 1
   }
   if(largegames$Winner[k] == "Mafia")
   {
      largeMWin = largeMWin + 1
   }
   if(largegames$Winner[k] == "Independent")
   {
      largeIWin = largeIWin + 1
   }
   k = k + 1
}

smallwinvector = c(smallTWin, smallMWin, smallIWin)
smallvector = smallwinvector
smallvector = round(100 * smallvector / (length(smallgames[,1])), digits = 1)
k = 1
while(k <= length(smallvector))
{
   smallvector[k] = paste(smallvector[k],"%", sep = "")
   k = k + 1
}

largewinvector = c(largeTWin, largeMWin, largeIWin)
largevector = largewinvector
largevector = round(100 * largevector / (length(largegames[,1])), digits = 1)
k = 1
while(k <= length(largevector))
{
   largevector[k] = paste(largevector[k],"%", sep = "")
   k = k + 1
}

pie(smallwinvector, col = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"), labels = smallvector,
main = c("Small Game (Nine Players or Less) Win Percentages"))
legend(x = c("topright"), legend = c("Town", "Mafia", "Independent"), fill = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"))

pie(largewinvector, col = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"), labels = largevector,
main = c("Large Game (Ten Players or More) Win Percentages"))
legend(x = c("topright"), legend = c("Town", "Mafia", "Independent"), fill = c("Purple", "Black", "Green"))

#Most Lynched Day One
target = unique(data$First.Lynch.Player)
target = target[-4]
targettotal = vector(length = length(target))
k = 1
m = 1
while(k <= length(target))
{
   m = 1
   targetcount = 0
   while(m <= length(data$First.Lynch.Player))
   {
      if(target[k] == data$First.Lynch.Player[m])
      {
         targetcount = targetcount + 1
      }
      m = m + 1
   }
   targettotal[k] = targetcount
   k = k + 1   
}
targetframe = cbind(target, targettotal)
targetframe = as.data.frame(targetframe)
targetframe[,1] = target

targetframe = targetframe[with(targetframe, order(-targettotal)), ]

#more_people: 6
#cjdrum: 4
#existential_elevator: 3
#boomfrog: 3

#Update Two
# more_people: 6
# cjdrum: 4
# existential_elevator: 3
# Lataro: 3
# boomfrog: 3
# Gopher of Pern: 3

#Numerical Stats (Update Two in Parenthesis)
mean(data$Total.Game.Days)  #3.705 (3.855)
median(data$Total.Game.Days)  #4 (4)

mean(data$Total.Real.Days)  #28.311 (30.145)
median(data$Total.Real.Days) #23 (25)

mean(data$Player.Count) #10.393 (10.536)
median(data$Player.Count) #10 (10)
Last edited by Deva on Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:21 pm UTC, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Weeks » Thu Jan 26, 2012 9:43 pm UTC

I knew it. Deva is an android.

Next, post individual win/loss records.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Jan 26, 2012 9:47 pm UTC

So, we should lynch indy's day 1? Scum have no chance then! :P
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby Deva » Thu Jan 26, 2012 11:25 pm UTC

Weeks wrote:Next, post individual win/loss records.

Difficult. Did not always post a faction list at the end. Looking at MoA Replay now. Changes factions too, making it worse.

Note: noticed that mafia = town in the above game. Curse you misleading names, like in Wizardry. Updated the relevant graphs by changing its Mafia Lynch/Mafia Win to a Town Lynch/Town Win.

Gopher of Pern wrote:So, we should lynch indy's day 1? Scum have no chance then! :P

And aim for a No Lynch instead of a Town Lynch as Mafia, apparently.
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby ForAllOfThis » Thu Jan 26, 2012 11:48 pm UTC

Lies, damned lies, and statistics!

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Re: Meta discussion

Postby _infina_ » Fri Jan 27, 2012 12:00 am UTC

ForAllOfThis wrote:Lies, damned lies, and statistics!

Welcome to the Department of Redundancy Department, and welcome.
Spoiler:
keozen wrote:It took us exactly 3 pages to turn a discussion of a loved children's book series into smut...
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Re: Meta discussion

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 29, 2012 3:50 am UTC

Most times lynched on Day One:
3. boomfrog (3)
I don't know if the secret Santa random lynch D1 should really count, although it was weighted by votes. Ehh, whatever.
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