Vieto wrote:yes, it has begun.
Ok, so a cult, mafia, time traveler, ghost, and who knows what else. Given that there are 20 players, I think there should be somewhere in the range of 3 to 5 members in the mafia. I'm willing to bet on 4. Also, I'd also bet that the cult likely has a recruit, and begins with 3 players at the most.
Ok, now to speculate on the time traveler. I think a time traveler may be either townie or independent, although if there are multiple time travelers, then one might be mafia aligned. I would imagine that a time traveler would have one of 2 abilities: they can change a vote, or they can kill someone in the past (I'm willing to bet on the former). As a result, assuming we get to read the slips of paper after each death, we could potentially revive dead townies (or we may be forced to lynch someone else in the past).
The Ghost: Maybe the ghost gets 1 final investigation, and/or gets to speak after death? I think it is likely that a ghost will be a townie role
Felltir wrote:Right. This looks to be damn complicated, and already pretty much done over. But I don't think we should assume only one cult member. Could be up to 3, I reckon, though unlikely. Error.
OverBored wrote:After reading a significant chunk of Matrix Mafia through again, I discovered three things:
1) Cults are powerful. The smiths had two people, and unless I am misunderstanding, the smiths were essentially a cult.
2) Neb always kills me in the most annoying ways
3) I am really, really bad at riddles, especially those with Shakespeare in them.
I would tend to think that the cult has 2 members, but idle speculation doesn't actually help us all that much.
On a side note (aimed at anyone who has played recently), are there any more newer roles that get used regularly but some of us may not have seen before? It might be nice to have an idea of what we might find.
The speculation about the number of players in a cult concerns me, as I can't see any flavour reason for it to be brought up. I suspect someone knows something.
Vieto wrote: Brooklynxman wrote: Jar'O'Jam wrote:
Vieto wrote:Ok, so a cult, mafia, time traveler, ghost
walk into a bar.
All but the ghost say owe. Bartender looks up and says "You're all cut off, now get back to lynching scum"
Why would the mafia try to lynch scum?
I have to agree with Moo that 5 goons is likely too much for a medium game.
Brooklynxman wrote:Gee Vieto, the cult has a recruit. Whoda thought?
Not all cults have recruits. Most do, but not all. That said, we should go under the assumption they have a recruit.
The Moo Prophet wrote:I don't remember how Time Travelers worked in the past, but I would think they can go back 1 or 2 days and maybe roleblock someone.
I didn't think of that, but it makes sense as a possibility.
...speculating about the existance of a recruitless cult is like speculating about the existance of a killless mafia. And seems very weird, at this point in the game.
Vox Imperatoris wrote:
Megatriorchis wrote:So we should keep all these possibilities in mind and not just lynch people all willy-nilly. We need to choose carefully, I'd say we go after mafia members first and then cult members, then independents (if there are any). The cult could be a major threat if they can recruit every night and if most of their recruits join and if only a few of them get killed throughout the game.
I disagree. To the extent that we can, we should try to eliminate the cult above all, since cults tend to become ridiculously overpowered if they're allowed to grow for too long.
I agree with vox.
I'm a big fan of not speaking unless I've got something to say - look through the two newbie games, and you'll see that to be the case. If I'd seen anything that struck me as suspicious, or I had anything that might add to discussion, I'd post it, believe me.
I mean, if you want to provide constructive criticism on my posting style, previous analyses (that is the plural of analysis, right?), then I'll try to change. But until then, I'm going to stick to what I know how to do: and that's lurk. I know it's not great, but until I've seen something worthwhile to post, that's what I'm going to do. Sorry.
Well, if you can't find anyone being suspicious, you can always ask questions about people, and perhaps vote for them... their reaction to your actions might give you some insight.
OverBored wrote:Whilst I don't think we should have a particular hierarchy of who to lynch, I don't think it is particularly uncommon to hold the view which Mega has (that a particular order is needed). Much in the same way that people often try to convince an SK to work to the towns benefit for a while. Normally I would disagree with the order that Mega suggests as well, but with so little information about the nature of the Mafia and the Cult, and knowledge that there are some freaky roles out there, I think it is premature to make any presumptions about which party is more risky. We should, IMHO, just take any anti-town lynching/death as a success, rather than cursing ourselves when we catch scum instead of cult (or vice versa).
hmm. I agree with your last point. It should also be noted that spreading fear about the cult is an awesome mafia tactic for scum to use - since the cult is, of course, usually more dangerous, and also more scary as confirmed town can suddenly become cult.
*I was a juggler!
I couldn't pin down any particular reason to find Az suspicious - it may simply be that there are more fluff posts from him than I usually expect. Right now, vieto's early comments are most concerning to me. I'm not quite ready to vote on it though.FoS: vieto