The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

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Vicarin
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:41 am UTC

Chaos @BoomFrog

Spoiler:
Deva has the correct derivation there, I was giving the value assuming that you know that you're town yourself.

And I'm incredibly sure it's correct, it's a standard selection without replacement combinatorics problem.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:44 am UTC

Chaos @ vicarin

Spoiler:
mpolo powers will remain secret! But if he has Not yet come back to the game and one faction achieves their win condition the game ends and he doesn't come back.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby ConMan » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:19 am UTC

Chaos
Spoiler:
So far, Sabrar has posited that the mpolo NK was the one originally meant for BoomFrog. If no-one else calls him on it I will do so tomorrow.The truth, of course, is far stranger - BF used a "scramble all targets" ability, which actually swapped mpolo and Plytho, and redirected things from BF to Mark. So now the question is who wanted Plytho dead, and whether they're now trying to run damage control.

Also, I'm going to pre-emptively activate my other ability D3, just have to let wam know.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:36 am UTC

wachafia
Spoiler:
Resurrection when I have limited number of kills would be terrible.
How does ConMan know about the redirection? Was it BoomFrog's power? Why would he be informed that a kill was swapped? Is he basically night-immune or does his power have limitations?
Shame on BoomFrog for reading the spoiler, I enjoyed him sheeping me...

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby mpolo » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:22 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
I kind of suspected that the throwaway line in my PM that my catchphrase is "I'll be back" was referring to a possible resurrection power. On D3, I will be a double-voter.

Now this spoiler is probably making people paranoid. Oh well.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:35 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
I think I have managed to achieve the game goal of chaos. Imagine the reaction if we had had 3 deaths!

Plytho is coming under a lot of pressure to do with his links to mark. Would be a shame if one mafia got knocked out early.

Also I am sad Mark died early in this game, you were doing a very good job for newbie scum just got unlucky with the RNG.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:43 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
Also there have been several comments by players that have made me go "damn Should have put that in". Oh well!
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:44 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
Wait, so plytho was his partner, not h_a? And he's a janitor, not framer? Wait, so what's h_a?

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:52 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
mafia c is plytho and Mark. Plytho has 2 one shot janitors he can use and 2 one shot framers that make someone appear guilty to cops. Huery is a listener. But as I thought an actual listener is too harsh. Huery is a town insane listener and gets sent snippets of chats from previous games. Last night he got sent chat from wot 3. Huery can also send statement to me to get put in the flavour. He would have been a great cult recruit and is recruitable but due to the 're direct Moody end led up trying to recruit himself.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:09 pm UTC

Chaos (sabrar may read)

Spoiler:
Sabrar wrote:Fascinating how the Gojoe thread is more busy than the actual game itself... :|


It's the problem with me modding the game! Next game we can go back to our debates that take up half the thread!
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:15 pm UTC

Chaos (@wam)
Spoiler:
Looking forward to it!

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:18 pm UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
Sabrar:

- Pushes my lynch D1

- Complains thread is inactive D2

????

:lol:

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:22 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:Chaos

Spoiler:
Sabrar:

- Pushes my lynch D1

- Complains thread is inactive D2

????

:lol:


Chaos

Spoiler:
one of the recent games I can't remember which one he did say "I'm bored shouldn't have lynched wam"
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:51 pm UTC

Chaos:

Spoiler:
Ok, so if plytho was scum instead of h_a, that means I just need to invert the polarity of my scumdar for future games, and I'll be all good :lol:

I mean, look at this amazing list

Vicarin wrote:Ordered list is a decent idea though, I'll go with

Town
Vicarin
Plytho
Sabrar
moody7277
somitomi
bessie
Mark_Cangila
heurisically_alone
mpolo
Madge
BoomFrog
Scum


Simply amazing, 6 scum listed as townier than all 4 other town. It is unfortunate that most of town was/is being pretty quiet though, I'm usually going to lean towards scum reading that...

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:54 pm UTC

wam wrote:Chaos

Spoiler:
mafia c is plytho and Mark. Plytho has 2 one shot janitors he can use and 2 one shot framers that make someone appear guilty to cops. Huery is a listener. But as I thought an actual listener is too harsh. Huery is a town insane listener and gets sent snippets of chats from previous games. Last night he got sent chat from wot 3. Huery can also send statement to me to get put in the flavour. He would have been a great cult recruit and is recruitable but due to the 're direct Moody end led up trying to recruit himself.


Chaos

Spoiler:
This is amazing on so many levels. What snippets has h_a been sent? This seems to even be actively bad for town given that he'll just be getting misinformation :lol:

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:34 pm UTC

Wam's Chaos @Vic
Spoiler:
I was giving the value assuming that you know that you're town yourself.
Ahh, that's the part that was making my numbers wrong. Alright, so moving on:

Just to clearly define the discussion:
Given that my method reduced the lynch-pool to 1 scum out of 2 candidates instead of 3 scum out of 10 candidates you conclude that the effectiveness of my method is barely better then random selection. Is that correct?
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:39 pm UTC

wam wrote:Chaos

Spoiler:
town insane listener and gets sent snippets of chats from previous games.


Wam's Chaos
Spoiler:
:shock:

Wow... :D

Thunderous applause.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:42 pm UTC

Wam's Chaos
Spoiler:
@Vic, as a totally separate discussion, why did you find me scummy? The main reason I found you scummy was for finding me scummy without a reason that I could understand.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:49 pm UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
@Vic huery got the below

“I’ve sent in that I’m rolecopping XXXX and that I’m performing the factional kill on XXX,”
“Yeah I think your right and keep under the radar. I think XXX might be XXX.”

Method is a pick a chat and then got two random numbers and used those messages.

@boom I was proud of that role. Basically threw crazy ideas I had for roles at the game. Also really like madges role!
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:36 pm UTC

wam wrote:Chaos

Spoiler:
@Vic huery got the below

“I’ve sent in that I’m rolecopping XXXX and that I’m performing the factional kill on XXX,”
“Yeah I think your right and keep under the radar. I think XXX might be XXX.”

Method is a pick a chat and then got two random numbers and used those messages.

@boom I was proud of that role. Basically threw crazy ideas I had for roles at the game. Also really like madges role!

Wam's Chaos
Spoiler:
I knew she got something fun by her behavior D1. I think my biggest regret is that I didn't get to try and puzzle out why she would possibly claim VT. I think I might have figured it out actually, but I'll never know. That role is so delightful for Madge specifically. By the way, did she need to vote people to target them with something? That was my guess which is why I gave her the excuse to vote me.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby wam » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:18 pm UTC

Chaos @boom

Spoiler:
no voting needed just standard one shot night powers just boosted. I.e. last night she got 3 cops. And yeah when she got it randomly I did laugh for about 5 minutes
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:08 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Wam's Chaos
Spoiler:
@Vic, as a totally separate discussion, why did you find me scummy? The main reason I found you scummy was for finding me scummy without a reason that I could understand.


Chaos:

Spoiler:
I wrote out the reasons in the thread for goodness sake, haven't you read them? :(

plytho janitoring me really screwed up my plan if "town information dump, then die" on the last day, eh?

For your other question, I'm saying that it's hard to demonstrate that your results are better than random guessing the way that bessie and you have been doing so; you both seemed to think it was impressive to shrink a lynch pool down to 1 scum and 1 town, but my point was that random guessing will do that quite a lot of the time anyway. If you could show that you did that well consistently, then that would be another matter and I'd be interested, but I somewhat doubt that given the results of your gambit from this game :P

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:14 pm UTC

Chaos @ BoomFrog

Spoiler:
Oh yeah, there was one other thing...

Given the speed at which the clump of you, bessie, and Sabrar jumped on me, and then steadfastly refused to consider moving the entire day, I was almost certain there was at least 1 scum on me. Of course, my final lynch was with all scum except for you :P. When I was re-evaluating Sabrar and bessie at the day end, I actually did start feeling a bit better about you in general just because if they were scum and you were town, I could start seeing you being convinced that I was really scum (even if their reasons were bogus).

Of course, my scumdar just sucked this game anyway as I said earlier, I'll have to recalibrate it on everyone :P

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:47 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Wam's Chaos
Spoiler:
@Vic, as a totally separate discussion, why did you find me scummy? The main reason I found you scummy was for finding me scummy without a reason that I could understand.


Chaos:

Spoiler:
I wrote out the reasons in the thread for goodness sake, haven't you read them? :(

plytho janitoring me really screwed up my plan if "town information dump, then die" on the last day, eh?

For your other question, I'm saying that it's hard to demonstrate that your results are better than random guessing the way that bessie and you have been doing so; you both seemed to think it was impressive to shrink a lynch pool down to 1 scum and 1 town, but my point was that random guessing will do that quite a lot of the time anyway. If you could show that you did that well consistently, then that would be another matter and I'd be interested, but I somewhat doubt that given the results of your gambit from this game :P


Wam's Chaos
Spoiler:
I disagree with your score of 2/6 for my gambit this game. I didn't do a real evaluation beyond that your reaction was totally scummy. My score this game is 0/1 thank you very much. :lol:
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:51 pm UTC

Chaos @BoomFrog

Spoiler:
:P

Fair enough, but still count me unimpressed :P

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:00 am UTC

Chaos @Vic
Spoiler:
I just looked through and I really can't see explinations for why you felt I was so scummy. Maybe we can figure this out now that we both know we are being genuine. At this point here. I had "unclaimed" scum, and had defended mpolo. You didn't like my defense of mpolo and didn't like that I had pulled a gambit. And that was enough for me to be at the bottom of your scum list? Was it just leftover negative feelings since you don't like the gambit so much? You never answered this question:

BoomFrog wrote:
Vicarin wrote:@BoomFrog: well, I'd move it to mpolo, but we've kind of got a logjam there. You have any particular issue to my vote being parked on you right now? Also, what implications am I not thinking through?

Eh, guess you're not outright claiming scum anymore.

Unvote
Vicarin wrote:I'm a mystery wrapped in an enigma.
Let's add some clarity then.

Did you vote me because you thought I was scum? Did you unvote because you think I'm not scum? At what point did you change your mind?


I really didn't understand if your initial vote was because you thought I was scummy for pulling a gambit or just a protest vote because you wanted me to stop the gambit.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:33 am UTC

Chaos @BoomFrog

Spoiler:
Fair enough, I voted initially for you as a protest vote, because until someone shows me some data, I'm going to view these gambits as rather distracting ways to form a bunch of reads that are basically coin flips :P. Though, given your questions, there was the possibility that you were telling the truth. In which case, why not vote you? And hey, town was the minority D1 after all!

I find any sort of argument based on 'tone' to be somewhat lazy, even if it is unfortunately the best we have to go on at the time. It's also a very easy way for scum to hide when justifying stuff, because noone can really disprove what they're saying; see Sabrar's justification for voting me as an example. You saying 'have you seen half of people agreeing on a lynch D1' wasn't helpful either; that happens almost every game D1 to ensure a lynch. You were trying to clear mpolo based on him being unlikely to be on a large scum team, when I was almost certain we has multiball going on, so that also seemed like a distraction.

Also, this is rather meta and defensive, but that was the 3rd game in a row I've been a big bandwagon on D1. I was always going to be very, very touchy towards anyone who tried to push me as an alternative to mpolo (less so if there was another wagon in between), because I thought scum might have noticed that people could be convinced to vote for me relatively easily. Hence, you voting for me, after I'd reacted the same to your gambit the previous game, where you'd read me as town, suddenly made me view you very unfavourably. Having bessie and Sabrar jump on your vote soon after reinforced this.

As a final note, you were trying to use meta arguments about newbie scum tells involving my play in WoT3, but without comparing my play in any other previous game where I was town. This... doesn't work at all. But bringing it up just turns the thread into this huge sea of wine, and it was incredibly unlikely to change your mind anyway, so I thought trying to argue with you based on that to be rather silly. Though seeing what bessie did in WoT3, might have been worthwhile.

Actually, been wondering too. You said near the end of the day that I was too confrontational and not doing enough analysis to be town going to their death; did you really think that? I thought I was trying to get in a bunch of last minute analysis with my reads list and extra thoughts about bessie and Sabrar, is there something else that I should have been doing? At that point, would anything less that a PR ability convince you that I'm town?

This is going to be more active than the game :lol:

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:16 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Chaos @BoomFrog

Spoiler:
Hence, you voting for me, after I'd reacted the same to your gambit the previous game, where you'd read me as town, suddenly made me view you very unfavourably.

...

Actually, been wondering too. You said near the end of the day that I was too confrontational and not doing enough analysis to be town going to their death; did you really think that? I thought I was trying to get in a bunch of last minute analysis with my reads list and extra thoughts about bessie and Sabrar, is there something else that I should have been doing? At that point, would anything less that a PR ability convince you that I'm town?


Spoiler:
That's why I defended you in WoT3 because it seemed like you were an easy target. And I was wrong, so of course I'm going to change my perspective on evaluating your reaction. Also, I expected you to react differently. I expected you to roll your eyes, be annoyed and move on.

At the end of the Day my perspective on you was very skewed, I don't think you could have convinced me. I was mostly just trying to convince others. You spent too much time trying to evaluate Bessie and fighting with her and that distracted from anyone doing anything productive, but aside from that I think you were fine. If you had kept answering my questions from mid Day we might have reconciled, I'm not as stubborn as Bessie (few things are). But I guess we will never know. I had 3 town in my bottom 4 so it wasn't going to be a good D1.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:37 am UTC

Chaos @BoomFrog

Spoiler:
Well, I was trying to replicate what I thought my town self would do in WoT3, so I guess it was just unfortunate for me that we had this game after WoT3 and not before :P. You misreading me as town that game was exactly what I wanted then, but you thinking that was an error on your part instead of me trying to manipulate the read last game lead to you going for me this game. Oh well :D

And as to what you expected me to do for the gambit this game, that is part of the reason I don't like them. They rely so much of having mental models of how other people are going to react be accurate, but seeing as we're just communicating with posts on a forum, it's pretty hard to guess how someone's going to react to a new situation.

Sick meta read for future games: if me and bessie end up in a reaaaaaally long, protracted, pointless fight that has at least one of us voting for the other, we ain't both town. I think this works for all the games so far :P. I was mainly talking to her preferentially because I was guessing she was town and would be convincable, but nooooooooo... Just a side effect of not bothering to try to convince people that you're scum reading anyway because you don't think they're arguing from an honest place, I guess. If I end up in the same position I'll try you first next time :lol:

You can't beat my 4 town in bottom 4. I had the perfectly inverted scumdar that game :lol:

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:15 am UTC

@Vic
Wam's Chaos
Spoiler:
Indeed. Well done. But I think acting the same 3 games in a row was going to read as scummy either way.

They rely so much of having mental models of how other people are going to react be accurate, but seeing as we're just communicating with posts on a forum, it's pretty hard to guess how someone's going to react to a new situation.

That is literally the plan yes. It's not great, but it's better then most D1 scum hunting. D1 scum hunting is really hard.

ick meta read for future games: if me and bessie end up in a reaaaaaally long, protracted, pointless fight that has at least one of us voting for the other, we ain't both town. I think this works for all the games so far :P. I was mainly talking to her preferentially because I was guessing she was town and would be convincable, but nooooooooo... Just a side effect of not bothering to try to convince people that you're scum reading anyway because you don't think they're arguing from an honest place, I guess. If I end up in the same position I'll try you first next time :lol:
I actually don't think that is true. You two are bound to butt heads and I think it is mostly not going to be alignment indicative. Haven't you two been opposite alignments in every game except NNY?

@Deva: I forgot to say thank you for the math assist. :)
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:26 am UTC

Chaos @BoomFrog

Spoiler:
We were both town in Alien Warfare as well, and we managed to not waste each other's time too much. Mostly :P

D1 scum hunting is indeed difficult. I'm just not sure if guessing people's responses is any better. Ah well, I think you get my position anyway, and I might need to just ignore it through next time you do something silly. Not going to trust the results though :P

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:46 am UTC

wachamafia
Spoiler:
I don't like when people accuse scum!me due to bad logic. It reinforces their belief that they were right after I flip.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Fri Sep 14, 2018 4:55 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
Turns out the logic Sabrar is complaining is bad isn't exactly bad, it's just relying on hidden information. Good times...

He's going to be pretty annoyed by Madge continually pestering him based on what will probably look like pretty flimsy justifications (JOAT having to claim VT is just one of the many amazing things about this setup)

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:25 am UTC

Wam's Chaos
Spoiler:
I think he is complaining about ConMan's logic, which frankly, I don't understand.
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Vicarin » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:06 am UTC

Chaos

Spoiler:
Yeah, I think ConMan's logic is fine, but it's not terribly suspicious if you don't have the mass redirect results to work with. Which it looks like he's about to share with everyone. Seems like a good play.

I hope people go after Sabrar for him being so pro-claiming at some point :P. And noone's said anything about me accusing bessie of rolefishing with my dying breath either :( Oh well.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby Sabrar » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:58 am UTC

chamawafia
Spoiler:
So if there's mass redirection then it doesn't matter who I kill, right? Might as well withhold until ConMan is dead (most likely he is the one causing it).
This requires a lot more luck than I thought.

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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:56 pm UTC

Chaos Mafia
Spoiler:
Come on, Sabrar, that is so pessimistic even for a chaos game that's an unlikely power. At most mass redirect every other night would be allowed. Every night is too crazy. Anyway why withhold? More kills means a shorter game. That's good for you.

Sabrar gets so mopey when solo scum convinced the setup is unbalanced against him.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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LaserGuy
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:11 pm UTC

Chaos
Spoiler:
Honestly, with double NK immunity and one-shot lynch immunity, Sabrar probably has a good chance of winning (granted, he doesn't know those modifiers exist yet).

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BoomFrog
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Sep 14, 2018 5:23 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Chaos
Spoiler:
Honestly, with double NK immunity and one-shot lynch immunity, Sabrar probably has a good chance of winning (granted, he doesn't know those modifiers exist yet).


Chaos
Spoiler:
Lynch immunity is generally very weak, especially on a solo role like SK. If you are lynched and survive and there is no new information town should lynch you again. It will help if he gets down to the last few. He does have a fair chance of winning, but a fair chance is a chance close to 25% considering there are four real factions. And I forgot that he has limited numbers of kills. Yeah, he should withold until he has enough kills to close out the game. He's basically playing survivor-who-is-actualy-scum again. Hence the moopiness.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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LaserGuy
Posts: 4585
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Re: The Gojoe Memorial Mafia Discussion Thread

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:21 pm UTC

Chaos
Spoiler:
I need to make a note to pay more attention to jimbob when he's Town. His scumhunting is very solid. Well, I need to make a note to pay more attention to jimbob in general because he's very dangerous as scum too, though I've never been on the receiving end of that :P


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