Wams belated simple game - Day 3

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LaserGuy
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:31 pm UTC

plytho wrote:@LaserGuy: did you deliberately pull that snap vote gambit to flush someone out? Or did you vote because of that wagon reasoning?


I already intimated that I don't have a result on anyone. My reasons for voting were: 1) I wanted to have a conversation about the votals and felt this was a nice segue into it. 2) On initial inspection I thought there was a decent case for Madge, but didn't have time to write it out in full. 3) I was curious to see who would react and how. What is interesting about your reaction is that you immediately jumped to the conclusion that I was scum as a result of this. Contrast Sabrar, who already thought I was scum and even after I flip Town will insist it must be a mod error, and jimbob who wasn't sure and had me at neutral (though rereading this sequence, hmm, I don't care much for jimbob's progression either, but I'll leave that for my post-by-post).

It should be clear to you that I don't see it. Did you consider yourself to be safe?


Alright, let's work through this.
Votes were 2-me, 2-somitomi, 2-jimbob. I was voting somitomi, jimbob was voting you, somitomi was voting me.

If I want to move my vote, the only reasonable alternative is jimbob. He was my second-scummiest read anyway, and I had at least Town leans on everyone else with 1 vote. Voting jimbob pushes him up to 3, but jimbob isn't voting me and votes defensively regardless of alignment, so he would in all likelihood vote for me, making it a 3-3 tie. This situation is worse than the previous one on several counts: somitomi is now safe, and he was my preferred lynch, so I'm not getting my first choice barring some unexpected swing in the votals. I'm encouraging undecided voters to choose between jimbob and myself, which increases the chance that people will get it wrong and lynch me instead. It doesn't actually accomplish my desired goal in consolidating the votes, since there are still three vanity wagons. The votes that I wanted to see moving were Madge, moody, and jimbob's. What do I gain in this scenario by voting jimbob? The vote is still tied, I'm at a higher risk of being lynched, and my preferred wagon is mostly off the table.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:36 pm UTC

@LaserGuy: in previous games when we were both town and at each other's throat you always engaged me in discussion. It seems to me that for the last page or so you actively avoided any communication with me. Plus I never saw you make so many mistakes in your analysis (at least that's what it looks like to me). If you don't even attempt to make me understand why I could be wrong about the points I raised then what do you expect from me?

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:45 pm UTC

Sorry, I've not been feeling too great this evening, so this is later than ideal and going to be brief.

@LaserGuy, thank you for the late response. I don't think there's any other questions you owe me answers to. Based on your answer, you think that at least part of the push on you was planned. As far as I can tell, there are three players pushing you: Sabrar, me and plytho, roughly in that order of strength. moody supports you, and Madge and mpolo don't seem to have much of an opinion. So, who are the scum that are pushing you?
LaserGuy wrote:This strikes me as active lurky and it's hard for him to engage the thread in any meaningful way.
This is a reasonable observation of mpolo so far D2. D2 started on page 6, his last post was halfway down page 5, with a reads list earlier on the same page. In his first D2 post, he admits that he skimmed a day's worth of content. Assuming that this is referring to either Monday or Tuesday, that gets us to about three quarters of the way down page 4. I know mpolo struggles with time issues sometimes, so I'm not trying to put too much weight in the infrequent posts, but the choice to start where he did is weird.

As a warning, I don't know what, if any, time I'll get to post tomorrow, as I'm not on my normal bus to or from work tomorrow, and am out in the evening. It looks like my reads are going to have to wait until Wednesday as a result. I'll be focusing on moody, Madge, mpolo and plytho in roughly that order. I don't see much point in me trying to dig further into LaserGuy. I doubt I'll see anything that changes my mind at this point barring a PR claim or similar from him. Similarly, I really don't see myself viewing Sabrar as anything other than Town at this point. I'll wait to revisit my read here if I'm wrong about LaserGuy and he flips Town.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:50 pm UTC

Request mod-prod on Madge

Good night all.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 25, 2019 11:31 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@LaserGuy: in previous games when we were both town and at each other's throat you always engaged me in discussion. It seems to me that for the last page or so you actively avoided any communication with me. Plus I never saw you make so many mistakes in your analysis (at least that's what it looks like to me). If you don't even attempt to make me understand why I could be wrong about the points I raised then what do you expect from me?


I don't expect you to do anything different from what you're doing. I just don't expect that me trying to engage you directly would change that in any meaningful way. I think the well has long since been poisoned between us this game and I don't think there's really any path for us to come to any understanding. I'll consider my reactions to you in future games as I probably did give up on trying to engage with you too early this time around. All this assumes you're Town, of course. But I don't think my reads this game are that bad.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:As far as I can tell, there are three players pushing you: Sabrar, me and plytho, roughly in that order of strength. moody supports you, and Madge and mpolo don't seem to have much of an opinion. So, who are the scum that are pushing you?


Well, plytho, obviously. I will be shocked if Sabrar is scum this game, but I imagine that scum knew, or ought to have known, that he would be pushing hard for my lynch today and would want to keep us both around to allow that to happen. I don't think it's super likely that you're scum because it doesn't work with how the D1 lynch fell out. mpolo's already given the indication he may vote for me even though he finds me townie, so that could be the second if for some reason a second vote is required. But both mpolo and Madge's content have been so light today that it's hard to draw any solid conclusions about either of them.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:16 am UTC

I'm making my Madge-case today if she doesn't talk.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby mpolo » Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:38 am UTC

Note: have barely skimmed from my last post to here. @moody: Since I had no clear opinions, I felt that I had to reread everyone, and so ended up with this style. Hopefully when I am up to date, I can be more "traditional". I have done this style before, though.

Page 5:
Spoiler:
Sabrar: jimbob is not good at "careless town" as scum. Points out that plytho's last two scum are not partners (acc. to plytho). Jimbob's answer to question directed at me came after two others answered it. Admits that he has falsely scumread in the past. If LG is scum, I am his partner. I would not likely forget a scumbuddy in a list. LG remains the best scum read.

LaserGuy: Evidence of avoiding interaction with sabrar. His 10 minute case wasn't hard because there was little data. somitomi has a standard confirmation, reads lists look fishy. plytho is solid town. Madge seems off. jimbob is uncertain. Sabrar's meta is direct and agressive early D1 as town, as scum reads the room. Picks on my only commenting some points.

wam: Says he sent prod, I didn't receive it.

plytho: reads list. jimbob is top scum, not buddies with somitomi, somitomi dropped jimbob's rating very quickly (scum?). It is scummy that somitomi sees most people as neutral. jimbob had odd interactions with someone. Jimbob was "too interested" in answering question to me. I might be somitomi's partner. Votals are poor. Why didn't jimbob break tie?

somitomi: already unvoted bessie; explains jimbob's slip in the ranking; votes LaserGuyS

jimbob: some people have scummy metas and have to work to look townie; LG's attack on jimbob seems to have more substance than plytho's, time is limited D1&D2. Madge is fairly typical. I have not provided original content. Doesn't like top 3 scum candidates. Rereads LG: slightly scummy. Plytho is best pick. There is no tie.

moody: Sabrar reads LG scum, not reciprocated. somi and I are scumreads. Votes somitomi.

bessie: some comments, list unchanged. Sabrar's scumread on LG is like other wrong scumreads in the past. Some more comments.

Madge: scum in jimbob/somitomi/moody.


Sabrar is very convinced of his LG read, which is in large part based on meta. However, Sabrar keeps a townie feel through this.

LaserGuy has provided reads on most people. He responds to most direct questions. His reads have question marks by somitomi (now confirmed town), Madge, jimbob. I guess this has at least some scummy feel, but it's not overwhelming.

wam: Claims to have prodded, but didn't. I came back on my own. :)

plytho: Reading jimbob as scum, partially following LG. Suspicion of somitomi (now confirmed town) was strong.

jimbob: Wants to vote plytho, but can't reasonably due so with the votals. Did not like the direction of the vote yesterday. Slight improvement here.

moody: Relatively light posting, middle of the pack.

I see a certain sort of linkage between LaserGuy and plytho, in that they kind of lead the somitomi charge. I think it would be unusual for both scum to put their eggs in one basket like that so early, so the link may only be apparent.

I have to teach a Latin class, so back later…
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:06 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
plytho wrote:@LaserGuy: did you deliberately pull that snap vote gambit to flush someone out? Or did you vote because of that wagon reasoning?


I already intimated that I don't have a result on anyone. My reasons for voting were: 1) I wanted to have a conversation about the votals and felt this was a nice segue into it. 2) On initial inspection I thought there was a decent case for Madge, but didn't have time to write it out in full. 3) I was curious to see who would react and how.
So you're saying you only considered that your vote looked like you had a result after getting feedback?
What is interesting about your reaction is that you immediately jumped to the conclusion that I was scum as a result of this. Contrast Sabrar, who already thought I was scum and even after I flip Town will insist it must be a mod error, and jimbob who wasn't sure and had me at neutral.
So you read me as scum because my D1 read on you flipped from townie to scummy based on your Madge vote.
You think your Madge vote looks like you're likely to have a result on Madge but also looks a slow play to flush out buddies. When I said "that's not how you use a result" I meant you should either slow play your result or you use it as the basis of a strong case. The Madge vote looked like neither of those. To me it looked (as I explained earlier) like it was the result of planned reasoning that you expected us to follow. Now you're claiming that that's pretty much the case. So now look at it from my point of view: when I'm still processing somi and bessie's demise you already have a case on Madge. If it was an obvious one I'd have no problem. But this one isn't obvious and clearly required some thought. It was also not (as) clear cut (as you thought). My conclusion was you planned on voting Madge during the night, which only makes sense for scum. Can you follow that reasoning?
It should be clear to you that I don't see it. Did you consider yourself to be safe?


Alright, let's work through this.
Votes were 2-me, 2-somitomi, 2-jimbob. I was voting somitomi, jimbob was voting you, somitomi was voting me.

If I want to move my vote, the only reasonable alternative is jimbob. He was my second-scummiest read anyway, and I had at least Town leans on everyone else with 1 vote. Voting jimbob pushes him up to 3, but jimbob isn't voting me and votes defensively regardless of alignment, so he would in all likelihood vote for me, making it a 3-3 tie. This situation is worse than the previous one on several counts: somitomi is now safe, and he was my preferred lynch, so I'm not getting my first choice barring some unexpected swing in the votals. I'm encouraging undecided voters to choose between jimbob and myself, which increases the chance that people will get it wrong and lynch me instead. It doesn't actually accomplish my desired goal in consolidating the votes, since there are still three vanity wagons. The votes that I wanted to see moving were Madge, moody, and jimbob's. What do I gain in this scenario by voting jimbob? The vote is still tied, I'm at a higher risk of being lynched, and my preferred wagon is mostly off the table.
Hmm, looking at the reads lists I don't really agree about the higher risk of being lynched. Both bessie and moody had you a lot townier than jimbob, so jimbob was more likely to be the lynch if you did move. So I think you were relatively safe. You're right, though that it wouldn't let you see jimbob's move. But it would push moody and/or bessie to move.

mpolo wrote:jimbob: Wants to vote plytho, but can't reasonably due so with the votals
I presume you meant LaserGuy instead of me.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:24 pm UTC

Some additional points to discuss.

1. I don't like the fact how neither plytho or jimbob is even questioning me anymore (LaserGuy I understand and moody and mpolo are not really the questioning type). There was e.g. some talk about how jimbob was not included in my first Town-to-Scum list (intentional from my part because after I made a gut-read on jimbob I realized that I promised myself not to do that) and plytho was excluded from the second (accidental, due to miscounting). This was not revisited. If you're Town you simply have to suspect anyone even a little bit and ask them questions because they might slip up (this is part of the reason why I go ham on people, I think LaserGuy defending himself slipped up quite a few times which otherwise wouldn't have happened). At least jimbob asked me about my confidence in Madge's towniness (though he didn't push me to answer). I can't find a single question from plytho directed at me D2.
It is of course technically possible that one of you is a Cop with a result on me but I find that highly unlikely (also you should mask it better).

2. jimbob saying that he'll revisit my read if LaserGuy flips town is super bad in this regard. It seems like he already decided who today's lynch will be, also (borrowing moody's cynical view for a second) I can easily read it as 'I know LG will flip town so this gives me an excuse to go after Sabrar next'.

3. plytho 'dismissing' my question on who would kill bessie feels strange (especially now that we know somitomi's flip). bessie pushed his lynch so she shouldn't have been the number one priority for scum to nk in my opinion. That honor belongs obviously to me me me (because clearly I was the towniest town who ever towned). As bessie could attest I'm always quite sure that I will be the nk each night (and I no longer prepare any analysis during the night because of that). This also means however that I'm a good target for a Doc or Jailkeeper to protect (though that actually rarely happens) and I think we could infer a few things about the setup on why scum didn't try to kill me. So there was plenty to analyze, especially because (as LaserGuy already said) it was obvious that I would continue attack LG D2. So if you believe that LG is scum you need to be able to rationalize why I was left alive.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby mpolo » Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:07 pm UTC

The slog continues:

Page 6:

Spoiler:
plytho: Votals. jimbob seems confident in own survival. Madge is the least likely to have killed bessie.

DAY 2 starts

Sabrar: Wants to vote LaserGuy. There is no "solve" possible b/c no information from the night. LG is biggest scum read, voting town read. mpolo, then plytho/jimbob are scum. Madge is town. Wants ordered lists. jimbob left a tie with 3 hours left, so could have saved a buddy. No arguments for scum!Madge from LG. LG could be scum with jimbob. LG's analysis came 18 hours after his vote. Definitely tunnelling. Thinks LG is buddying me. Dismisses LG's suspicion of Madge with "Madge is Madge". Evidence about LaserGuy: original case against jimbob is valid, but not typical scum play from jimbob. Ignores D1 reads at process of elimination stage. Early vote on Madge seems unnatural. Vote analysis OK, but logic errors. LG's notes are fairly townie. LG's tone less relaxed.

jimbob: decided bessie was town (overnight). Moody seems slightly town, despite lack of scum reads. scum in LG, mpolo, plytho. Confusing comment about everyone except Sabrar and Madge voting confirmed town (as plytho was voting him). Clarifies. Sabrar and jimbob were not voting confirmed town. Who is second scum? LG is dodging questions. QU: LaserGuy vs. Sabrar. LG/moody is plausible. Madge does not seem scummy. Why is moody town? LG getting frustrated, Sabrar's logic is not conclusive. Votes LG. What has Madge done to be scummy (to LG)

LaserGuy: Votes Madge. Calls out Sabrar for lack of reasoning. town!LG=>town!jimbob. Jimbob can't buddy with mpolo/plytho. Only possible buddies for jimbob would be moody or Sabrar. Scum is plytho/Madge. Because scum hadn't had chat, time zones mean that coordination would have been difficult. scum!LG would have voted jimbob. Madge is scum only by PoE. In the night, decided town!somitomi => passive scum. mpolo unlikely buddy for jimbob b/c left vote on jimbob w/o possibility to changel. moody's play is consistent with previous town games. Reason for Madge: common player in various possible scumteams. Explains why their wasn't circular reasoning before. Madge isn't playing to her meta.

Madge: wants reasons for LG. Hitting probs with confirmation bias. Likes jimbob/plytho's posts.

moody: LaserGuy is looking more reasonable than Sabrar. Re-read: LG seems to have been shading jimbob, waiting for support.

plytho: jimbob still seems to have been confident about survival (knows he has a buddy?). LG's argument starts and ends with his towniness. Why didn't LG break tie rather than just calling attention to it. What does LG want out of the argument above?


This page has me totally flailing. I hope that page 7 gives me some clarity.

Madge -> has a typical low level of content. I don't see any way to class this as town or scum, just as Madge. As such, she would be a valid PoE scum, but unlikely to come up with a direct argument for her scumminess. LG's quick vote is surprising, but if the notes presented are real, could be genuine.

moody -> also relatively quiet. He points out that LaserGuy seems more reasonable than Sabrar, but then seems to back off of this a bit.

Sabrar -> Either townie or EXTREMELY well-played scum.

plytho -> pushing on LG and jimbob, generally.

LaserGuy -> I find his arguments generally very good. Sabrar has me questioning that feeling. I need to do some thinking about possible teams.

jimbob -> Has had some sloppy arguments (where he missed people, etc.). That could go either way, obviously. Asked me about the LG-Sabrar dynamic. I haven't had time to think deeply about teams. At the moment it feels almost like a town on town situation.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:28 pm UTC

1. I've been picking up scumtells from 4/6 players and not really any from you. Starting a line of questioning on you isn't productive and quite intensive.

2. The suspicious thing here is the assumption that LaserGuy is the lynch (although LaserGuy sure helped make that a thing). Rereading you afterwards makes sense to me, though.

3. This is a weird point.
Sabrar wrote:As bessie could attest I'm always quite sure that I will be the nk each night (and I no longer prepare any analysis during the night because of that). This also means however that I'm a good target for a Doc or Jailkeeper to protect (though that actually rarely happens) and I think we could infer a few things about the setup on why scum didn't try to kill me.
Just because you always think you'll be the NK doesn't mean scum thinks so too. Your second line definitely doesn't follow your premise. You think doctors should protect the people who tend to think they'll be the NK? This is possibly the wrongest thing I've heard you say.
Sabrar wrote:So if you believe that LG is scum you need to be able to rationalize why I was left alive.
Not very hard to rationalize. LaserGuy didn't kill the one person pushing his lynch the hardest because it would lead to more people finding him suspicious due to your death. "Who but LaserGuy would kill Sabrar??" (this would obviously lead to people saying "well, that's just what scum want you to think" making it al pretty winey, but all in all pretty risky for Laser. )
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby moody7277 » Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:43 pm UTC

Watching the debate between LG and Sabrar, but I'm fairly sure I'm not going to get anything more from it. As most people realize, I am firmly on #TeamLG, the only thing left for me is whether or not Sabrar's tunneling is town or not. Next bit of homework for me is to get my thoughts together on the plytho issue, and see if he is associated with scum!mpolo or scum!Madge.

The slip thing: he wasn't surprised enough or surprised for the wrong reasons about LG snap voting Madge at the opening of D2?
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:48 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Next bit of homework for me is to get my thoughts together on the plytho issue, and see if he is associated with scum!mpolo or scum!Madge.
I have some more homework for you: could you please explain the relative scumminess of somitomi and jimbob that lead to your voting somitomi over jimbob?
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:52 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Just because you always think you'll be the NK doesn't mean scum thinks so too. Your second line definitely doesn't follow your premise. You think doctors should protect the people who tend to think they'll be the NK? This is possibly the wrongest thing I've heard you say.
Line 1.5 is clearly "and I'm obviously right for thinking so".
Spoiler:
From recent games:
Meta Mafia - scum kills me N1
WoT3 - scum tries to kill me N1
Chaos - neither scum-team is attempting to kill me N1 :shock:
Texas - scum kills me N1
Secret Santa - SK curses me N1
My point isn't that Doc should save me because I think so highly of myself, Doc should obviously save town who is a likely target for the nk, which I happen to be.

plytho wrote:(this would obviously lead to people saying "well, that's just what scum want you to think" making it al pretty winey, but all in all pretty risky for Laser. )
I disagree with the level of riskyness this would present. I was killed N1 in Shakespeare as well and I thought it was exactly because of that play (so that people would focus on jimbob afterwards). The wine argument is simply too strong to read much into it.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:14 pm UTC

That's an impressive list in that spoiler and it does lend more credence to your reasoning.
Sabrar wrote:I disagree with the level of riskyness this would present.
The riskyness comes from increased attention to LaserGuy. He's less a focus of attention by killing bessie. (obviously his Madge vote countered that :D)
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:27 pm UTC

Request 24-hour extension because both mod and Madge are afk

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby wam » Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:57 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Request 24-hour extension because both mod and Madge are afk


granted

Madge mod prod is going out know.

Will update timer in a bit
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Mar 26, 2019 5:16 pm UTC

I've got a few minutes for a quick reply:
Sabrar wrote:2. jimbob saying that he'll revisit my read if LaserGuy flips town is super bad in this regard. It seems like he already decided who today's lynch will be, also (borrowing moody's cynical view for a second) I can easily read it as 'I know LG will flip town so this gives me an excuse to go after Sabrar next'.
You're right that it's not guaranteed that LaserGuy will be lynched, but I think it's highly likely. I've already decided where my vote is going to be at end of day, barring anything dramatic. You similarly seem locked onto LaserGuy, and plytho looks to be leaning that way too. That means that only one more person needs to jump that way for him to definitely be lynched. Assuming that he is and flips scum, there's no point in reading you because you would be all but confirmed town. That would be one epic bus otherwise.

I'm not putting any effort into reading you further today due to limited time and because you are my strongest town read by quite a margin. I have doubts about every other player to some degree, so that's where I'm focusing.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:49 pm UTC

plytho wrote:So you're saying you only considered that your vote looked like you had a result after getting feedback?


I wasn't specifically trying to make it look that way, but it was on the spectrum of reactions that I expected to see.

My conclusion was you planned on voting Madge during the night, which only makes sense for scum. Can you follow that reasoning?


No, your reasoning makes no sense at all to me. From your point of view, assuming you're Town, there's a variety of options you could have considered:
1) He's a PR and has a result on Madge but doesn't want to show his hand
2) The night results have somehow indirectly informed him something about Madge
3) The night results have somehow indirectly informed him about jimbob, and he's voting his next scummiest read.
4) He's Town and is doing some sort of gambit
5) He's scum and is doing some sort of gambit.
6) The vote is not really serious and is some kind of weird reaction to Sabrar's vote.

{The correct answer being, as I've discussed already, some combination of 2,3, and 4.}

There's probably other possibilities too. I'm not sure why Town!you would conclude that the immediate and only conclusion to draw would be 5). As I have alluded to earlier, I think the most likely reason is that you were looking for an excuse to vote for me.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 26, 2019 9:40 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:No, your reasoning makes no sense at all to me.
Look, I'm trying really hard to give you a fair read. If you think my reasoning is flawed, point out why. Point out where my reasoning doesn't make sense.

That list is ridiculous. I clearly explained why 1 makes no sense. 2 and 3 are part of your explanation and flawed. 4 and 6 don't make sense after your explanation. So yeah, I guess I should have immediately concluded you were a townie doing half a gambit based on flawed reasoning instead of 5 :roll:

Pretty much out of goodwill here.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:13 pm UTC

I don't have the energy to do the buddy analysis on jimbob, Laser and mpolo today. That extension is welcome :D
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:17 pm UTC

plytho wrote:[ I clearly explained why 1 makes no sense.


You had no reason to discount it.

2 and 3 are part of your explanation and flawed.


Even if they are flawed, flawed does not equate to scum. Once again, you're starting from the conclusion that you're hoping to reach, and working backward to make the evidence fit.

Pretty much out of goodwill here.


There hasn't been any goodwill from you since the start of the day. At best, you jumped to a conclusion that makes zero sense and have been tunneling me since. More likely, you were spooked by this:
LaserGuy wrote:I'm kind of liking plytho for scum. He stands out as someone who did not seem particularly invested in the outcome of the lynch. He wasn't really pushing his preferred wagon and didn't seem to have any real problem with any of them going through (even though he was townreading me). This feels like scum looking at three townie wagons and no danger to him or his buddy. Contrast his much more aggressive Town play from e.g. B99, Secret Santa, Meta Mafia, etc. Most plausible buddy is Madge, followed by mpolo.

And have been trying to draw the argument away from your scummy play.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:05 pm UTC

I still want an answer to this.

plytho wrote:So now look at it from my point of view: when I'm still processing somi and bessie's demise you already have a case on Madge. If it was an obvious one I'd have no problem. But this one isn't obvious and clearly required some thought. It was also not (as) clear cut (as you thought). My conclusion was you planned on voting Madge during the night, which only makes sense for scum. Can you follow that reasoning?

plytho wrote:If you think my reasoning is flawed, point out why. Point out where my reasoning doesn't make sense.


Also I fail to parse the first two things in your latest post. Like, I don't even know what you're talking about.

The reason why I started asking you about my reasoning for voting you wasn't about defending myself. It was to see if your read on me was genuine. I'm trying to give you a lifeline. I was hoping that by showing my reasoning you'd see that my response makes sense from my point of view. If you'd shown you were able and willing to do that I would have a townier read of you because your frustration and those notes give the impression of being genuine.

Instead of doing that you seem dead set on scum reading me. Mostly for not thinking you're a PR? That's how I'm interpreting it.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:07 am UTC

plytho wrote:I still want an answer to this.

plytho wrote:So now look at it from my point of view: when I'm still processing somi and bessie's demise you already have a case on Madge. If it was an obvious one I'd have no problem. But this one isn't obvious and clearly required some thought. It was also not (as) clear cut (as you thought). My conclusion was you planned on voting Madge during the night, which only makes sense for scum. Can you follow that reasoning?

plytho wrote:If you think my reasoning is flawed, point out why. Point out where my reasoning doesn't make sense.



I'm pretty sure I already explained this. Very well, I will try one last time in different words. I voted Madge at the start of D2. Based on this, you concluded that the only possible explanation is that I am scum. The only way that you could have considered this to be the case is if you dismissed a number of alternative hypothesis (enumerated in the linked post, plus possibly others I haven't thought of) that rule out a townie option. One of those hypotheses is that I am a PR with a result on Madge. Now, not only did you apparently not consider this and dismiss it, but the thought apparently never crossed your mind until I specifically brought it up. From my point of view, this basically means one of two things: 1) You're a PR whose power in incompatible with me having a result, and you internalized that so well that it never even occurred to you to consider it; 2) You're mafia, not with Madge, and know that it is impossible I could have a result on her. I weight the probabilities options of those at 10%-90%. That you also dismissed all of the other hypotheses out of hand and settled on the idea that I scum was attempting convoluted plan (why?) to lynch Madge (why?) with apparently no support from my buddy (why?) does not follow to me at all. This isn't the only reason I find you scummy here, here, but it is the most egregious.

I'm trying to give you a lifeline.


I'm not looking for one.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:12 am UTC

moody7277 wrote:Watching the debate between LG and Sabrar, but I'm fairly sure I'm not going to get anything more from it. As most people realize, I am firmly on #TeamLG, the only thing left for me is whether or not Sabrar's tunneling is town or not. Next bit of homework for me is to get my thoughts together on the plytho issue, and see if he is associated with scum!mpolo or scum!Madge.


Are you convinced plytho is scum? The phrasing here kind of feels like "so plytho is scum, just need to figure out who the buddy is".

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Madge » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:40 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Madge: please contribute. You can't count on me defending you forever.


Whooops. I missed this memo, and then got a modprod. Sorry. I hope you don't end up making a case on me because it would be a colossal waste of your time and you put so much effort into the games and I shouldn't be misdirecting you.

Let's try and contribute. I have to be out of work in 30 minutes though and I can't spend the entire time doing this game, so it's going to be speed chess styles. (And I'm not going to be available again for about 18 hours so...)

Jimbob is being very logical and painting damning cases against Plytho and Laserguy. I like Laserguy's case about plytho with regards to the snap vote, but at the same time, I didn't view it that way, I viewed the snap vote as being more likely caused by a kind of D2 RVS.

Laserguy is being really evasive and that is making me uncomfortable but it's also making me sympathetic because it can be horrible to have people gang up on you.

Here's my for entertainment purposes only list

TOWN
Jimbobmacdoodle
Sabrar
mpolo
moody7277
plytho
LaserGuy
SCUM

I'm coming around on these lists. They're relatively easy to make and force me to evaluate people based on "the vibe", which is more in keeping with my style. The downside is because I'm using "the vibe" this list could be exactly opposite to my previous list and I'd have no way to justify it beyond stammering incoherently about "the vibe of the thing"
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:10 am UTC

jimbob:

1. Votes moody, claims a bit rusty.
2. Comment on scummy codes. plytho's supposed slip on setup is in this post. This feels like something jimbob would say and I think it's NAI.
3. Shades somitomi, bessie, plytho. Sabrar okay, everyone else as expected. Not much more to say about this post. Still pings me.
4. Discussion with Sabrar about some of his comments above, setup commentary.
5. Response to plytho regarding my vote on him. Self-aware of his meta. Confused about plytho saying he was acting townie. Response to my "throwing shade" comments. Explanation is plausible.
6. Response to plytho regarding the setup thing. Sticking with NAI feeling on that. Response to me regarding suggesting sinister motives leading to tunneling. Hmm... curious. jimbob claims he does this all the time, but I can't obviously find evidence for him doing it at all as either alignment as he seems to believe is the case.
7. Response to Sabrar about why moody/mpolo are scummy. I'm not sure why jimbob is giving Madge a pass here for playing her meta when moody/mpolo clearly are as well.
8. Follow up with Sabrar regarding similar concerns that I mention above. mpolo still scummy, unsure about moody. Needs to think about plytho some more. More about tunneling. This seems somewhat more consistent with my impression of jimbob's meta.
9. No time
10. No time
11. Rereads plytho and decides he is scum. Notes a number of problems with plytho that all seem quite reasonable.
12. Response to some of plytho's commentary on the above. This is probably colored by my current feelings regarding plytho, but other than jimbob's comments on plytho not having early content being AI, most of this seems pretty reasoanble.
13. Reads on Madge/mpolo. Leaning scum on mpolo, Town on Madge.
14. Doesn't like any of the top 3 on the D1 wagon.
15. Reread somitomi, sticks with town lean.
16. Rereads me. Nothing exceptional here. Ends D1 with mpolo/plytho scum. Would vote me if no other alternative were to present itself.
17. Reply to plytho about deciding not to break the tie. Interesting in light of my subsequent discussion with plytho.
18. Indicates he would have voted me if needed.

At the end of D1 most of jimbob's content seems fairly reasonable. The only thing that stands out to me as notably scummy is the original throwing shade post and subsequent commentary. The former feels out place with jimbob as either alignment, and the subsequent comments that he does this regularly do not appear to be supported by meta. Nothing else stands out as notably scummy at this stage.

19. Overnight reads of bessie and moody. Going to assign scum points for having a read of bessie here as I've definitely seen scum players post questions/comments about somebody who was NKed. My inclination is that Town are more likely to cut this because it’s obviously irrelevant.
20. Ordered list with mpolo/plytho/me at the bottom. Madge is curiously high. Everyone voting confirmed Town except Sabrar/Madge (except he’s mistaken about Madge). Asks me why I voted Madge.
21. Reply to plytho's joke regarding the above.
22. Asks Sabrar about second choice for scum, pokes Madge, complains about me not replying to his question.
23. FoS me, complains about me dodging his question. Unhappy about lurkiness.
24. Votes me poor logic plus the question dodging bit. I don’t care much for this sequence. Jimbob seems quite concerned that I’m not answering his question, but, the span between post 20 and 22 I have posted once, obviously not seriously, and answer his question immediately after. Saying that I was “dodging his question” here is a stretch at best.This progression here feels very off to me..
25. Complains that my read on Madge is based on PoE. Um… yeah. It’s Madge. Outside of saying “well, the RNG loves her and she’s been Town every game for the past 3 years”, what alternatives do non-Sabrar people have here?
26. Comment to mpolo about having to choose between Sabrar and I. mpolo never follows up on this; jimbob never does either.
27. Questions moody about my shift in reads and using wagon analysis vs. straight reads. Comments to plytho he doesn’t like Madge before plytho/mpolo in my lynch pool. Convinced my buddy is among {plytho/mpolo}. Asks me about my “designated lynch” comment. My current assessment is that if jimbob is scum his buddy is probably Madge.
28. Complains I didn’t answer his question. In both of posts I make between 27 and 28 I indicate that I’m strapped for time, so I’m again finding jimbob’s attitude here remarkably uncharitable.
29. Jimbob locks me in as scum, Sabrar as Town.
30. Responds to Sabrar’s comment that jimbob will revisit him if I flip Town.

D2 jimbob’s content is essentially dominated by his evolving read on me. To the extent that he engages other players, it is almost entirely focused on how they feel about or engage with me. As I note above, jimbob’s approach to me personally is quite hostile, demanding immediate answers to his questions and escalating rapidly from FoS to lockscum in his read of me over a remarkably short period of time. I commented earlier that I felt people were looking for an excuse to vote for me, and as much as I feel it applies to plytho, I get that vibe really strongly from jimbob in his progression here.

On the whole, there’s not a lot I really like here. I’m willing to accept I’m experiencing some OMGUS from this, but on reread jimbob feels very off. If jimbob is scum, his buddy is almost certainly Madge.

[ninja by Madge… :shock: ... yeah, I definitely get a buddy vibe there.]

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby plytho » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:13 am UTC

plytho wrote:I still want an answer to this.

plytho wrote:So now look at it from my point of view: when I'm still processing somi and bessie's demise you already have a case on Madge. If it was an obvious one I'd have no problem. But this one isn't obvious and clearly required some thought. It was also not (as) clear cut (as you thought). My conclusion was you planned on voting Madge during the night, which only makes sense for scum. Can you follow that reasoning?

plytho wrote:If you think my reasoning is flawed, point out why. Point out where my reasoning doesn't make sense.

Maybe I wasn't clear, but I want you to respond to my reasoning in that first quote block.

LaserGuy wrote:Once again, you're starting from the conclusion that you're hoping to reach, and working backward to make the evidence fit.
I'm not doing that. Look at that quote! In fact, you're pot kettling here because you're the one starting from the flawed conclusion and working backwards into a scum read.
LaserGuy wrote:Based on this, you concluded that the only possible explanation is that I am scum.
This is wrong. I never said that. If I thought there was no way for you to be town I'd be voting for you.

Instead I got a really strong scum ping from you but spent a long time examining it. By now the explanation that you're a townie who voted Madge based on night reasoning/flips in a sort of gambity way makes sense to me. (But can you understand that this wasn't my immediate read of the situation?)

The reason I keep copy pasting my argument is to show you that it does make sense for me to scum read you there. Not to say that you're 100% scum.

LaserGuy wrote:settled on the idea that I scum was attempting convoluted plan (why?) to lynch Madge (why?) with apparently no support from my buddy (why?) does not follow to me at all.
[/quote] A possible reason would be to control the narrative and get an easy mislynch. I wouldn't expect very visible buddy support here. Especially after the backlash.

I'm also confused why you keep bringing up the pr thing. Your vote didn't look like either a slow play or a straight up result claim, especially combined with the reasoning. Remember, that reasoning is what made your vote look planned. And the fact that it looked planned is what made it look scummy.

LaserGuy wrote:
I'm trying to give you a lifeline.


I'm not looking for one.
I don't care :D I don't want to mislynch you.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:25 am UTC

plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
I'm trying to give you a lifeline.


I'm not looking for one.
I don't care :D I don't want to mislynch you.


I find this weirdly charming.

....I'm just going to accept that this is probably the scummiest thing that I have done this entire game (which is saying something, apparently) but doing that reread I've convinced myself that this is the right play.

Unvote
Vote: jimbob

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby plytho » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:26 am UTC

I plan to reread jimbob today. I hope to get some feedback from moody. I'm going to try and read mpolo but I might wait until he's all caught up.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:35 am UTC

@LaserGuy: if you're town you have the most horrendous reads and reasoning, like ever. Maybe Crossover comes close.
jimbob should not be the lynch today. Madge has good instincts after D1 (something bessie always nags me to acknowledge).

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:45 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@LaserGuy: if you're town you have the most horrendous reads and reasoning, like ever. Maybe Crossover comes close.
jimbob should not be the lynch today. Madge has good instincts after D1 (something bessie always nags me to acknowledge).


Bad reads are my superpower.

Let's suppose that there's some hypothetical world where you were somehow convinced I was Town. In that case, who is the lynch today?

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:51 am UTC

In that hypothetical world the entire scum-team is in {moody, mpolo, plytho}, order doesn't matter. I would go for plytho because he would be the biggest threat.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:57 am UTC

We never agree on anything.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:57 am UTC

That's our Facebook status, isn't it? :lol:

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby mpolo » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:07 pm UTC

Spoiler:
Sabrar: LG or Plytho is scum. Obsessed with me being partner. scum!LG=/=> town!jimbob. LaserGuy is scrambling.

moody: rapid shift from D1-D2 is most convincing argument against LG. Possibilities to explain rapid shift (also doesn't consider town PR possibility)

plytho: I'm saying things blatantly off. moody has a mea cupla that feels off. LG ignored my questions. Wants specific answers not buried in wall of text. Doesn't like my response to the hidden message. moody seemed to be assuming LG's towniness (scumtell). jimbob seemed to be trying to emulate his own townie style. jimbob's analysis of LG buddies is townie.

LG: feels he's going to be lynched. plytho has poor content. Focuses on the small stuff, not explaining why. Seems to be looking for an excuse to vote. Answers to plytho's questions buried in wall of text. Plytho slipped by not considering possibililty of town PR.

jimbob: But didn't LG use wagon reads? (to moody) plytho and I are next scummiest after LG. What does designated lynch mean.


Sorry, a student came to ask for help in Physics, and I lost an hour there. Have four hours of back to back classes after lunch. Won't be back to this today, most likely.

As everybody and his brother is reading me as scummy, and I have no other real move here: THE MAFIA HAS EXACTLY ONE POWER ROLE. EITHER A ONE-SHOT STRONGMAN, OR A ROLECOP.

This is obviously a claim of having a town power role and probably a death sentence for the night. It should give the other town power role (if present) the possibility to know which setup we are in.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:13 pm UTC

@mpolo: have you looked at all the setups? Your claim would mean that you're either Jailkeeper or Tracker. Just wanting to make sure.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:15 pm UTC

EBWOP: correction. Tracker is possible with no PR. This means you would need to be Jailkeeper. Do you confirm?

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:15 pm UTC

Pushing you because I have a different read on the setup.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:28 pm UTC

Also, any other PR should not counterclaim until mpolo clarifies this.


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