Wams belated simple game - Day 3

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:37 am UTC

BTW if it's not LaserGuy then my guess would be plytho + X with mpolo as most likely.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:35 am UTC

What's important to remember is that if LaserGuy is scum then it doesn't mean jimbob is town just because LG attacked him early D1. The narrative of LG bussing him is perfectly reasonable and can be easily justified by late D1 and D2 actions.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby mpolo » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:47 am UTC

Ack. I kept checking during the night, hoping that 48 hours would be shorter than it really is, then forgot to check in after day start.

I was reading both Sabrar and LaserGuy as townie, which has me now at a point of having to choose between them. Which I need to not try to do as a snap decision after skimming a day's worth of content. I'm going to be out for at least part of today, but today or tomorrow I should be able to devote some time to getting a better handle on this.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 23, 2019 9:52 am UTC

@mpolo: why are you locked in into 'having to choose'? You could always try to present your case on someone else you find scummy.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:55 pm UTC

Puppies.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Mar 23, 2019 7:48 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@mpolo: why are you locked in into 'having to choose'? You could always try to present your case on someone else you find scummy.
This. Whilst I don't believe LaserGuy is likely to be town, he certainly isn't confirmed scum. It is potentially possible for both him and Sabrar to be town, which means there's no need to choose between them necessarily.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby moody7277 » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:59 pm UTC

Of the points Sabrar brings up, the part about the rapid shift in reads from D1 to D2 is the most concerning. You would think the facts of the wagon would at least have some overlap with his reads, unless he's had a Vicarin level misread. Wagon analysis is something you can't fudge very much because of those stubborn factual votes. The two bits of townie content that Sabrar points to are where he's using his own Cynical View to get to a scum read.

Relaxing after a busy week, so I might get something else posted late Sunday (post Martinsville race). Just figured I needed to comment on an analysis I specifically requested.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:47 pm UTC

Mpolo is weird this game. I'm not used to him saying things that are so blatantly off. D1 had that hidden message remark, now he doesn't get what's going on between LaserGuy and Sabrar.

@mpolo: did you feel you had to choose between me and jimbob D1?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I need to review mpolo/plytho to see if that's plausible, but standalone, they are two of my top three scum reads, so I don't feel great that they are the third choice of the possible teams.
What do you mean by this? Would you like it better if this was his second or first choice?

moody7277 wrote:Not that those are immediately helpful. LaserGuy was already voting one of the people with 2 votes, while jimbob wasn't and where he did his defensive vote might have been educational. Mea culpa.
This kind of pinged me but I don't know quite why. I guess feel personally addressed by the mea culpa but it feels odd that that's implicit instead of explicit. It also feels like moody is owning up to the lesser crime (not forcing jimbob to vote) to mask the greater crime (lynching a townie).
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Madge » Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:54 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Puppies.



I ***SUSPECT*** this ***MAY*** be a code using my keen powers of observation
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:03 am UTC

@Madge: please contribute. You can't count on me defending you forever.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:47 am UTC

Okay, so I’m in the 80% confidence range that I’m the designated lynch today, so here’s the first entry in my last will and testament for you to ponder during the night phase.

plytho:

1: RVS votes me, sheeping Sabrar.
2: Apologizes for delaying the game. This is in response to Sabrar's question about him having a slow start. I'm not really sure why he's apologizing here, actually.
3-5: NAI setup discussion
6: Notes jimbob may be scum.
7: Responds to my query about why he finds jimbob is scummy. This is a very weak, non-commital read; doesn't indicate the post in question. Doesn't like mpolo's backtracking either, but it's not obvious to me why he finds this scummy.

@plytho: Can you point to exactly which line of jimbob's you felt was him "trying to be townie" and explain why you think it is significant? What did you find suspicious about the “hidden message” business?

8: Votes jimbob. This is a serious vote based on the reasoning above. I don't mind a little fishing D1 to see if he can generate some activity.
9: Response to my comments on jimbob. Agrees with my read. Says it pinged him a bit too, though there's no indication that is the case based on his earlier comments, so I think it's doubtful that it did. Standing by my initial comment here that his reason for voting jimbob seems sketchy.

@plytho: If jimbob's "masked scumtells" had pinged you, why didn't you mention it when I asked you for your read on him?

10: I agree with plytho's commentary that townies don't normally need to act townie. On the other hand, the line that appears to have actually pinged plytho doesn't really seem like anything to me. Asks jimbob about his read on me in this post. Doesn't ever follow up on it.
11: Joking with Sabrar
12-13: Mod question
14: Micro reads putting me and Sabrar as Town, mpolo, jimbob as scum. Everyone else kind of mushy middle. Asks moody for his read on me in this post, doesn't ever follow up on it.

@plytho: Why were you interested in knowing people's reads on me at this juncture? Why not people's reads about anyone else in particular (e.g. jimbob)?

15: Mod question
16: Comments to bessie about being townie.
17: Response to Sabrar's case on me.
18: Asks somitomi about his read on himself.
19: No time to post.
20: More on "acting townie". I mostly agree with what plytho's saying here, though I think it's largely NAI. Then again, I think that the post plytho is focussing on here is also NAI, so, hmmm...
21: Asks jimbob about what mistakes he thinks plytho has made.
22-23: Response to Sabrar re: jimbob's meta. This seems a bit convoluted. plytho is saying that jimbob is scum because he was trying to act townie but his town meta is scummy and he was being careful to look townie even though plytho doesn't agree that jimbob's town meta is scummy. I think that's right. I think Sabrar may have missed what plytho was actually talking about here with regard to what plytho was seeing, which, I'm not surprised about, because plytho never really explained it.

This whole thing feels fake to me.

24: Reads list. Interesting that he says here he doesn't know what to think about jimbob in spite of all of the commentary above. Also doesn't fit the commentary later where he has fairly definitive thoughts on jimbob (and somitomi as well). Actually, despite him saying he doesn't know what to think about somi and jimbob, it's most of the other reads here that are very wishy-washy.

25: Response to Sabrar.
26: Some replies to things. I'm sort of stuck on plytho's interpretations based on 23.
27: Thinks votals are useful, which, mmm, I don't think I agree with. Making a note to go back and check some of plytho's previous games to see if he has any opinions on this.
28: Comment on moody vote.
29: Shading jimbob.
30: Joking with jimbob.
31: Drops me to second scummiest (from towniest on his earlier list). Not sure this is really justified (I'm actually a bit surprised at the responses to my Madge vote. I vote without immediate commentary all the time).

@plytho: Why do you find the Madge vote to be scummy? What would be the motivation for scum!me to vote this way? What would be the Town motivation?

32: I feel like some of plytho's scum hunting here is fake. The first question he asked me is something that I had already discussed a fair amount of detail. The latter, as well as his follow-up in 33. I don't know, I feel like plytho has been playing mafia long enough that he ought to understand that pretty much regardless of my alignment here, me breaking the tie is very suboptimal.
33: Follow up to 32.
34: Comments on moody here feel off in a similar way to some of plytho’s other stuff.

Not a lot to like in plytho’s content, especially day 2. A lot of his content seems to be focused on tiny stuff that looks likely to be NAI to me (jimbob’s “trying to be townie”, mpolo’s “hidden message remark”), and I don’t feel that he’s really explained why these things matter or used these things to develop his reads in more detail. His content D2 I get the very distinct impression that he is looking for an excuse to vote for despite being his towniest read throughout pretty much all of D1, and his reasoning for doing so feels extremely flimsy and unjustified.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:19 am UTC

If you're going to spend all this time on me, the least you can do is answer my questions.

I'm having people over in 10mins will answer the questions after they leave.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby mpolo » Sun Mar 24, 2019 11:50 am UTC

Ack. It takes a long time to slog through this.

Notes from page 3 (semi-random start point to avoid confirms and random votes) — only got that far in an hour. (Was interrupted in the middle, though.)

Spoiler:
Starting page 3:

plytho: Likes LaserGuy. Townies don't need to "act townie". Reads the hidden message comment as extremely damning. Somitomi is scummiest of the neutrals.

Sabrar: Comments on LaserGuy's reaction test on moody. Why him? Questions and a random string of characters. Questions LaserGuy'S linking of jimbob/somitomi. Everything I do has a reason. Points to a couple positive posts from somitomi. Were LG's reasons valid? Is jimbob scum (questions to Madge). Asks jimbob for more than gut-feelings.

moody: somitomi's game is not alignment-indicative. Town lean on Sabrar/plytho. bessie/LaserGuy are most townie. Likes plytho, Sabrar.

bessie: mostly fluff. Jimbob's town lean on somitomi is odd, as he didn't recognize the Hitchhiker's Guide stuff.

Madge: claims town, Sabrar is doing well (question about codes being public counts in his favor), Degenerates into LISP programming. Would use a compulsive vig on me. Early game interactions mean less than later. Setup spec can help hide scum.

LaserGuy: buddy vibe from jimbob/somitomi. Moody's joke forced, therefore the test. Sabrar: which posts from somitomi are pushing us forward? jimbob is giving sinister motives to innocent things.

jimbob: LaserGuy fast on attack, but slow to provide reasoning. Asks about Sabrar's votes. Some comments were stream-of-consciousness. Will generally answer questions. Does moody have scum reads? Scum possibly plytho, moody, me. For lurking.

somitomi: plytho mostly harmless? jimbob/somitomi "link" is too obvious. LaserGuy's defense is reasonable. trusts Madge.


This is all content from before nightfall, so has to be read knowing that somitomi and bessie were town.

Sabrar is coming over pretty typically. I think he is townie. (I am assuming that the various "hidden codes" are supposed to be traps for people to fall into?)

plytho's sinister reading into a pretty flippant comment of mine in the early phase and then considering my not "sticking to my guns" on a flippant comment to be even scummier rubs me the wrong way in a major way. But there's obviously some confirmation bias there, as I know the attack is misguided.

moody: no real feel from this page.

bessie: was typical bessie mixed with Madge. I can understand her being targeted by scum, as she wasn't likely to be lynched any time soon.

Madge: feels less scummy than usual.

LaserGuy: Back on page two, I liked his argument about jimbob. Not getting anything in particular here.

jimbob: This page of content seems pretty innocuous.

somitomi: One HHGttG post. Clearly there is no jimbob/somitomi link considering the results of last night.

I hope to get back to this, but it will be a bit later.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:22 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Of the points Sabrar brings up, the part about the rapid shift in reads from D1 to D2 is the most concerning. You would think the facts of the wagon would at least have some overlap with his reads, unless he's had a Vicarin level misread. Wagon analysis is something you can't fudge very much because of those stubborn factual votes.
I'm a little unsure as to what you are getting at here. You are saying that you are concerned by his shift in reads, because you can't fudge wagon analysis, right? If he'd opened with "oh, looks like I got my D1 reads wrong", would that have made any difference? Does the fact that he's trying to use wagon analysis seem townie or scummy to you?
plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I need to review mpolo/plytho to see if that's plausible, but standalone, they are two of my top three scum reads, so I don't feel great that they are the third choice of the possible teams.
What do you mean by this? Would you like it better if this was his second or first choice?
Yes, I would have, especially first (first better than second, because it matches my reads better). You and mpolo are (were? I'm feeling less confident in my scum read of you currently, so moody might be scummier now, need to review) my two scummiest reads after LaserGuy. That means that if I'm not off track, LaserGuy's buddy is likely among {plytho, mpolo}. By placing that pair last, and lynching Madge first (who he's proposing lynching because she is the common member of the first two teams), he gets a mislynch, with no risk to his buddy.
LaserGuy wrote:Okay, so I’m in the 80% confidence range that I’m the designated lynch today, so here’s the first entry in my last will and testament for you to ponder during the night phase.
What do you mean by "designated lynch"? Are you saying that you believe scum agreed overnight to push your lynch?
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Mar 24, 2019 6:51 pm UTC

plytho wrote:If you're going to spend all this time on me, the least you can do is answer my questions.


I already expressed my opinion on your questions in the post above.

Don't worry, I'll look at everyone in turn as time allows.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:26 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I already expressed my opinion on your questions in the post above.
That's not how questions work.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:44 pm UTC

7: Responds to my query about why he finds jimbob is scummy. This is a very weak, non-commital read; doesn't indicate the post in question. Doesn't like mpolo's backtracking either, but it's not obvious to me why he finds this scummy.

@plytho: Can you point to exactly which line of jimbob's you felt was him "trying to be townie" and explain why you think it is significant? What did you find suspicious about the “hidden message” business?[/quote] Right here:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Flicking between setup tables and forum on my phone isn't straightforward, so I'm not going to engage in the preferred setup discussion for now. I'll try to remember to post my response tomorrow evening.

Nobody would mind if jimbob didn't talk about this bit of setup spec. Nobody would notice if jimbob didn't do it right away and wrote something later. The fact that jimbob thinks it's necessary to point out that he will respond to this indicates he's considering how he's viewed. That's the only purpose that line serves, showing he's going to do his townie duty.

As for mpolo: his post about secret messages was clearly off base so I was wondering how he'd respond to the backlash. I didn't like how he responded.
mpolo wrote:In answer to the question, I didn't have anything in mind to try to detect a code. It is highly unlikely that I would detect anything. As others have said, we should assume that (if we're in an appropriate game) both scum know the results of night actions.

There's no "whoops, I messed up". The first line is half denial (I said it but I didn't mean it) and the second feels like mpolo pretending he was agreeing with us along.
LaserGuy wrote:@plytho: If jimbob's "masked scumtells" had pinged you, why didn't you mention it when I asked you for your read on him?
Because my read wasn't based on them. My read was based on the setup discussion. I got pinged by the "masked scumtells" after I was reading jimbob as scummy and I didn't really know why so it felt like confirmation bias and not a solid scum ping.

LaserGuy wrote:@plytho: Why were you interested in knowing people's reads on me at this juncture? Why not people's reads about anyone else in particular (e.g. jimbob)?
I asked moody because I felt he was operating under the assumption you were town, which was a scum ping on moody. I was wondering if his read on you would be inconsistent with that assumption. He put you at +4 in his reads list following my question, so there was no inconsistency, making the ping much less strong (but thanks for bringing it back up).
I think I asked jimbob because he had called everyone out for "masking scumtells" by saying weird stuff and you were saying weird stuff and weren't on the list. I figured you may be buddies. Your vote right after my question changed my mind. Jimbob's answer was also plausible.
I believe those were the only ones I asked? I didn't ask about other people because I had no specific reason to do so.
LaserGuy wrote:22-23: Response to Sabrar re: jimbob's meta. This seems a bit convoluted. plytho is saying that jimbob is scum because he was trying to act townie but his town meta is scummy and he was being careful to look townie even though plytho doesn't agree that jimbob's town meta is scummy. I think that's right. I think Sabrar may have missed what plytho was actually talking about here with regard to what plytho was seeing, which, I'm not surprised about, because plytho never really explained it.
I never said jimbob's town meta was scummy. Also, how did I not explain it?

I thought my point was pretty clear but here it is again:
jimbob has a natural style when he plays as town I call this a townie style. Town jimbob trivially and effortlessly looks like town jimbob by virtue of actually being town jimbob. Scum jimbob tries to look like town jimbob but can't do so effortlessly because he isn't town jimbob so he has to act townie by which I mean (ok maybe this was where the misunderstanding occurred) so, by acting townie I don't mean perform townie actions but I mean like an actor playing a role. The bit I spotted felt like I saw jimbob trying too hard and missing what town!jimbob actually looks like.
This whole thing feels fake to me.
What feels fake about it?

LaserGuy wrote:@plytho: Why do you find the Madge vote to be scummy? What would be the motivation for scum!me to vote this way? What would be the Town motivation?
It felt planned, like you determined ahead of time what the town reasoning would be based on the flips. I got the impression you expected town would easily follow your vote and fall into your clever trap. I don't see the town motivation.

LaserGuy wrote:32: I feel like some of plytho's scum hunting here is fake. The first question he asked me is something that I had already discussed a fair amount of detail. The latter, as well as his follow-up in 33. I don't know, I feel like plytho has been playing mafia long enough that he ought to understand that pretty much regardless of my alignment here, me breaking the tie is very suboptimal.
I disagree that breaking the tie is suboptimal. I'm pretty sure I'd always break the tie there as town. Even without being on the bloc myself I was going to break the tie. I only changed my mind when I realized I could see what jimbob chose.

LaserGuy wrote:27: Thinks votals are useful, which, mmm, I don't think I agree with.
LaserGuy wrote: Didn't you snap-vote Madge based on those votals?

LaserGuy wrote:(I'm actually a bit surprised at the responses to my Madge vote. I vote without immediate commentary all the time).
Usually it's pretty easy to figure out why.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:53 pm UTC

Fixed tags:
LaserGuy wrote:7: Responds to my query about why he finds jimbob is scummy. This is a very weak, non-commital read; doesn't indicate the post in question. Doesn't like mpolo's backtracking either, but it's not obvious to me why he finds this scummy.

@plytho: Can you point to exactly which line of jimbob's you felt was him "trying to be townie" and explain why you think it is significant? What did you find suspicious about the “hidden message” business?
Right here:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Flicking between setup tables and forum on my phone isn't straightforward, so I'm not going to engage in the preferred setup discussion for now. I'll try to remember to post my response tomorrow evening.

Nobody would mind if jimbob didn't talk about this bit of setup spec. Nobody would notice if jimbob didn't do it right away and wrote something later. The fact that jimbob thinks it's necessary to point out that he will respond to this indicates he's considering how he's viewed. That's the only purpose that line serves, showing he's going to do his townie duty.

As for mpolo: his post about secret messages was clearly off base so I was wondering how he'd respond to the backlash. I didn't like how he responded.
mpolo wrote:In answer to the question, I didn't have anything in mind to try to detect a code. It is highly unlikely that I would detect anything. As others have said, we should assume that (if we're in an appropriate game) both scum know the results of night actions.

There's no "whoops, I messed up". The first line is half denial (I said it but I didn't mean it) and the second feels like mpolo pretending he was agreeing with us along.
LaserGuy wrote:@plytho: If jimbob's "masked scumtells" had pinged you, why didn't you mention it when I asked you for your read on him?
Because my read wasn't based on them. My read was based on the setup discussion. I got pinged by the "masked scumtells" after I was reading jimbob as scummy and I didn't really know why so it felt like confirmation bias and not a solid scum ping.

LaserGuy wrote:@plytho: Why were you interested in knowing people's reads on me at this juncture? Why not people's reads about anyone else in particular (e.g. jimbob)?
I asked moody because I felt he was operating under the assumption you were town, which was a scum ping on moody. I was wondering if his read on you would be inconsistent with that assumption. He put you at +4 in his reads list following my question, so there was no inconsistency, making the ping much less strong (but thanks for bringing it back up).
I think I asked jimbob because he had called everyone out for "masking scumtells" by saying weird stuff and you were saying weird stuff and weren't on the list. I figured you may be buddies. Your vote right after my question changed my mind. Jimbob's answer was also plausible.
I believe those were the only ones I asked? I didn't ask about other people because I had no specific reason to do so.
LaserGuy wrote:22-23: Response to Sabrar re: jimbob's meta. This seems a bit convoluted. plytho is saying that jimbob is scum because he was trying to act townie but his town meta is scummy and he was being careful to look townie even though plytho doesn't agree that jimbob's town meta is scummy. I think that's right. I think Sabrar may have missed what plytho was actually talking about here with regard to what plytho was seeing, which, I'm not surprised about, because plytho never really explained it.
I never said jimbob's town meta was scummy. Also, how did I not explain it?

I thought my point was pretty clear but here it is again:
jimbob has a natural style when he plays as town I call this a townie style. Town jimbob trivially and effortlessly looks like town jimbob by virtue of actually being town jimbob. Scum jimbob tries to look like town jimbob but can't do so effortlessly because he isn't town jimbob so he has to act townie by which I mean (ok maybe this was where the misunderstanding occurred) so, by acting townie I don't mean perform townie actions but I mean like an actor playing a role. The bit I spotted felt like I saw jimbob trying too hard and missing what town!jimbob actually looks like.
This whole thing feels fake to me.
What feels fake about it?

LaserGuy wrote:@plytho: Why do you find the Madge vote to be scummy? What would be the motivation for scum!me to vote this way? What would be the Town motivation?
It felt planned, like you determined ahead of time what the town reasoning would be based on the flips. I got the impression you expected town would easily follow your vote and fall into your clever trap. I don't see the town motivation.

LaserGuy wrote:32: I feel like some of plytho's scum hunting here is fake. The first question he asked me is something that I had already discussed a fair amount of detail. The latter, as well as his follow-up in 33. I don't know, I feel like plytho has been playing mafia long enough that he ought to understand that pretty much regardless of my alignment here, me breaking the tie is very suboptimal.
I disagree that breaking the tie is suboptimal. I'm pretty sure I'd always break the tie there as town. Even without being on the bloc myself I was going to break the tie. I only changed my mind when I realized I could see what jimbob chose.

LaserGuy wrote:27: Thinks votals are useful, which, mmm, I don't think I agree with.
Didn't you snap-vote Madge based on those votals?

LaserGuy wrote:(I'm actually a bit surprised at the responses to my Madge vote. I vote without immediate commentary all the time).
Usually it's pretty easy to figure out why.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:08 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I need to review mpolo/plytho to see if that's plausible, but standalone, they are two of my top three scum reads, so I don't feel great that they are the third choice of the possible teams.
What do you mean by this? Would you like it better if this was his second or first choice?
Yes, I would have, especially first (first better than second, because it matches my reads better). You and mpolo are (were? I'm feeling less confident in my scum read of you currently, so moody might be scummier now, need to review) my two scummiest reads after LaserGuy. That means that if I'm not off track, LaserGuy's buddy is likely among {plytho, mpolo}. By placing that pair last, and lynching Madge first (who he's proposing lynching because she is the common member of the first two teams), he gets a mislynch, with no risk to his buddy.
I went from "this is weird, I don't get it" to "that's some very townie reasoning" although I need to think it through a bit more. Unfortunately I ran out of time.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:39 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:@plytho: Why do you find the Madge vote to be scummy? What would be the motivation for scum!me to vote this way? What would be the Town motivation?
It felt planned, like you determined ahead of time what the town reasoning would be based on the flips. I got the impression you expected town would easily follow your vote and fall into your clever trap. I don't see the town motivation.

plytho wrote:Didn't you snap-vote Madge based on those votals?

plytho wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:(I'm actually a bit surprised at the responses to my Madge vote. I vote without immediate commentary all the time).
Usually it's pretty easy to figure out why.


So this is a definitely a slip. Very, very likely it is a scumslip. The obvious townie motivation that you could have drawn from me snap voting someone at the start of day was that I was a PR who had a result on Madge. The fact that this never crossed your mind implies that you are alignment-informed about Madge, and know that there's no way that I could have a result on her. I think if you were a PR, even one that made it impossible for me to have a result, you would have been more careful to hedge against the possibility in your analysis. Also, Madge can't be your buddy.

I'll get to the rest later.

Vote: plytho

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby moody7277 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:53 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm a little unsure as to what you are getting at here. You are saying that you are concerned by his shift in reads, because you can't fudge wagon analysis, right? If he'd opened with "oh, looks like I got my D1 reads wrong", would that have made any difference? Does the fact that he's trying to use wagon analysis seem townie or scummy to you?


-Scum have to lie about reads since they already know who is town, and probably are going to shade their "reads" against their targets.
-Scum cannot lie about wagon analysis since the votes are indisputable, and so wagon analysis is NAI
-The discrepancy between the two is where you can read the degree of scumminess. Either LaserGuy was trying to shade his opinion to save possible teammates and setup a mislynch, or he had a completely wrong hypothesis of the game D1 which the votals have started to correct (which was my "Vicarin-level misread" comment).

Given my opinion of the rest of Sabrar's case, I'm leaning toward the latter option in that third point.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:55 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:So this is a definitely a slip. Very, very likely it is a scumslip. The obvious townie motivation that you could have drawn from me snap voting someone at the start of day was that I was a PR who had a result on Madge. The fact that this never crossed your mind implies that you are alignment-informed about Madge, and know that there's no way that I could have a result on her. I think if you were a PR, even one that made it impossible for me to have a result, you would have been more careful to hedge against the possibility in your analysis.
This is manifactured. LaserGuy is just scrambling. I'll explain in detail if necessary but I'll let plytho react first.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:08 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I need to review mpolo/plytho to see if that's plausible, but standalone, they are two of my top three scum reads, so I don't feel great that they are the third choice of the possible teams.
What do you mean by this? Would you like it better if this was his second or first choice?
Yes, I would have, especially first (first better than second, because it matches my reads better). You and mpolo are (were? I'm feeling less confident in my scum read of you currently, so moody might be scummier now, need to review) my two scummiest reads after LaserGuy. That means that if I'm not off track, LaserGuy's buddy is likely among {plytho, mpolo}. By placing that pair last, and lynching Madge first (who he's proposing lynching because she is the common member of the first two teams), he gets a mislynch, with no risk to his buddy.
I went from "this is weird, I don't get it" to "that's some very townie reasoning" although I need to think it through a bit more. Unfortunately I ran out of time.
Right, so my first response was: "Why is jimbob making such a big deal about LaserGuy not having the same read as himself? Two out of three is pretty good."

Jimbob's explanation shows he's really trying to match his reads to teams and is putting focus there. The whole "if LaserGuy is scum how does he treat his buddy in this situation" angle is very townie.

LaserGuy wrote:So this is a definitely a slip. Very, very likely it is a scumslip. The obvious townie motivation that you could have drawn from me snap voting someone at the start of day was that I was a PR who had a result on Madge. The fact that this never crossed your mind implies that you are alignment-informed about Madge, and know that there's no way that I could have a result on her. I think if you were a PR, even one that made it impossible for me to have a result, you would have been more careful to hedge against the possibility in your analysis. Also, Madge can't be your buddy.
First of all, that's not how you use a result. Second: by the time I responded you'd already explained your reasoning. third: are you going to answer my questions at some point?
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:37 pm UTC

Once again LaserGuy has ignored a question from me too. I'd vote for him except I already am...

As for his slip comment about plytho, I agree with Sabrar. It feels pretty forced. I don't think I'll be able to do as quite a detailed reasoning as Sabrar, but I do think it's worth pointing out that LaserGuy didn't bother to prod other players for being concerned with his opening naked vote (IIRC both me and Sabrar shared the concern at least). Another issue with it is that PR!plytho might know enough about the setup to render it impossible for LaserGuy to have any result on Madge (e.g. if plytho were a tracker, he'd know that the only way town!LaserGuy has any info is as a roleblocker (not applicable - roleblock doesn't give clear information of scumminess when there was a night kill) or a doctor (again not applicable for the same reasoning). LaserGuy did bring up the idea that a PR would "hedge" information gained this way, but I disagree. If I can't see any way for somebody to have a result, I don't naturally think that I need to hedge this information. I simply avoid saying anything like that, and potentially I attack the player who apparently has alignment knowledge. It might not necessarily be the optimal way to play, but it's a perfectly reasonable way to.

moody7277 wrote:Either LaserGuy was trying to shade his opinion to save possible teammates and setup a mislynch, or he had a completely wrong hypothesis of the game D1 which the votals have started to correct (which was my "Vicarin-level misread" comment).

Given my opinion of the rest of Sabrar's case, I'm leaning toward the latter option in that third point.
So you think LaserGuy isn't scum? Who do you think is then? What do you think about the plytho slip discussion?
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby moody7277 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 11:00 pm UTC

@jimbob: I'm still in favor of a mpolo-Madge team. mpolo has been squirrelly all game, and Madge meta is good for D1 only. On the plytho issue, I haven't done a deep dive on it yet; to me that latest post about it just got folded into the Sabrar-LG war.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby moody7277 » Sun Mar 24, 2019 11:50 pm UTC

Madge

Spoiler:
post 1: RV bessie
post 2: "claim"s town, scum!Sabrar would ask about codes privately, likes mpolo, soooo many paretheses
post 3: likes the roleplaying in general, mpolo NAI
post 4: doesn't like Sabrar asking her about a pseudo-vig, reluctantly says mpolo
post 5: dubious of early game case-making

Cynical View here: 60% of her posts to this point include mpolo.

post 6: response to jimbob: setup spec easy content for scum. response to Sabrar: no read on somi-jimbob interaction
post 7: fluff plus usual D1 grumps
post 8: half fluff, realizes she should put up some content, T->S list bessie and Sabrar on top, me and somi at bottom

Cyncial View here: she realized her meta was only going to cover her for so long.

post 9: fluff

D2
post 10: confused by Sabrar's day opening post
post 11: analysis of LG v Sabrar hampered by LG conclusion about her, likes jimbob and plytho

Cynical View here: "hav I mentioned I'm town lately"
post 12: fluff


Hasn't posted in 24 hours, but her entire D2 content has been less that stellar. Time for her to stand and deliver. Current rating: -1.5
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BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 25, 2019 6:26 am UTC

Both jimbob and plytho bring up good points against LaserGuy's accusation, let me add a third: LaserGuy snap-voted Madge in much the same way I did with him. If it occurs to plytho that LG might be a PR with a result then it should also occur to him that I might be PR with a result on LG. At that point if plytho trusts me more than him then the probability of PR!LaserGuy diminishes by a lot.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:40 am UTC

This is where I stand right now. LaserGuy is scum, his buddy could be anyone from {jimbob, moody, mpolo, plytho}. If I'm somehow wrong about LaserGuy then moody must be almost certainly scum because I don't see the scum-team in the other 3.
My issues with the 4 suspects:

jimbob: the narrative of LaserGuy distancing himself from his buddy early D1, finding another lynch-target later in the day and then 'clearing' him based on votals is very tempting. I disagree with plytho wrt the 'trying to look townie' bit, I think it's not that strong of a tell. Based on his content alone I would guess town but this tie to LaserGuy makes me doubt myself.
moody: my only real concern about moody is that he consistently thinks LaserGuy is town.
mpolo: his content is seriously lacking, plus LaserGuy put him as most townie D1. However I don't think he 'backtracked' that much wrt sneaky codes, I believe it fits into standard mpolo musings.
plytho: nothing major, plytho is an extremely good scum-player and I don't think I'll be able to trust him ever again. As mentioned I don't agree with some of the reasons why he finds people scummy but that in itself means nothing.

It all depends how LaserGuy would handle his buddy in a small game. If I had to guess I'd say it's either jimbob or moody.

PS @Madge: if you don't start to talk soon then I will make you talk and you won't like that. I respect the way you're playing the game but you need to keep in mind that this is a team-effort.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 25, 2019 12:32 pm UTC

@plytho: what is your read on moody?

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 25, 2019 1:02 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@plytho: what is your read on moody?

Somewhat suspicious. I had a couple of pings off him. (that early D1 one I mentioned in my response to LaserGuy) the fact that he decided the lynch on a townie and the mea culpa.

I need to check the buddy possibilities for my bottom 4. If moody voted to save his buddy it's not mpolo. Although I guess moody + mpolo is possible if moody just wanted to be on a wagon.

Basically my bottom 4 has LaserGuy sinking, jimbob rising, mpolo and moody still there.
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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby wam » Mon Mar 25, 2019 2:48 pm UTC



Votals
Laserguy - 2 - sabrar, Jimbobmacdoodle
Plytho - 1 - laserguy

With 7 players it takes 4 to hammer.

Deadline is Thursday 9 pm utc


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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby mpolo » Mon Mar 25, 2019 3:47 pm UTC

Re-read page 4…

Spoiler:
Sabrar: Votes LaserGuy (without additional argument). Examples of questioning rules as town/scum. Madge and moody are reacting like townies. Plytho is considering possibilities. LG read is primarily meta. Accepting some things blithely, responding to questions. LaserGuy's "trying to avoid confrontation with Sabrar" after analysis looks scummy. LG made a complete case pretty quickly when asked to do it. Town must be less passive! Jimbob's natural townie meta is to look scummy because he's not worried about it.

bessie: A little suspicious of Sabrar's puppy. Thoughts about codes. LaserGuy's style bristles, but no concrete tells. Sabrar has buddy vibe with LG (because he is alone in reading him scum, and has prodded him in particular). Jimbob has much oddness. Somitomi gave up the gambit too soon but for a good reason. But went defensive immediately. Somitomi missed plytho's understanding his joke. Sabrar's question is not alignment indicative because of Gojoe discussion. Doesn't like the use of HHG for alignment reads if it was just a joke. Gut list puts Madge, jimbob, somitomi at the bottom.

somitomi: any case of being buddies with jimbob nonsensical from townie perspective. Analysis of reactions to HHG: Laserguy, plytho, jimbob possibly odd. HHG was for fun. Took time to get plytho's joke. Not certain how to sort jimbob.

jimbob: must reread plytho. Explains reaction to somitomi, Sabrar's open question about codes is townie. Wants a why for the HHG material. Had not expected a boomfrog gambit. Plytho's sheeping looks like an excuse to vote. Votes plytho.

Madge: wishes she were a replacement.

LaserGuy: bessie seems to be town. Doesn't understand somitomi's read on jimbob.

moody: somitomi looking better

plytho: bessie missed the point about "acting townie". jimbob seems to be scum trying to play to his own town meta. What mistakes is jimbob pointing out. Agrees with Sabrar about town meta on jimbob.


bessie and somitomi, as vanilla, don't have any kind of special knowledge, but bessie fingered Madge, jimbob, somitomi. somitomi suspicious of Laserguy, plytho, jimbob.

Madge has little content. As per meta.

LaserGuy has less than I would have expected on this page. Some of the analyses from others are coloring him scummy, though.

moody is also pretty sparse on this page.

Sabrar continues being prolific and generally insightful. I am reading him townie.

jimbob is in conflict with plytho. I found myself in general agreement with his sentiments.

plytho is in conflict with jimbob, and has made a bit of an attempt to align himself with Sabrar.

It seems likely to me that there is a scum in {jimbob, plytho}. The other likely in {Madge, LaserGuy, moody}. Not trying to analyse teams, as I am still behind on reading.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 25, 2019 6:43 pm UTC

plytho wrote:I need to check the buddy possibilities for my bottom 4. If moody voted to save his buddy it's not mpolo. Although I guess moody + mpolo is possible if moody just wanted to be on a wagon.
I forgot moody was pushing mpolo D1. Very unlikely buddies. Could be jimbob, who was moody's second scummiest read (+1) until he changed that to somi (who came from +2 +/- 2.5) The explanation for somi over jimbob is lacking. The uncertainty was based on the hhgttg and moody's somi read was on an upward trend after that. There is no explanation why that trend moved down again (or why jimbob moved up). The answer only came after there was a three way tie so moody couldn't say jimbob there without voting. Possibly that's why he moved to somi.

Also, an opportunity to lynch jimbob would be very hard to ignore for scum who know he is a very good player.

Laserguy as moody's buddy is also possible but the same pressures aren't there due to moody's town read of Laser.
There is still the assumption about lasers trying to test moody early D1 that felt like moody didn't consider that laser could be scum. But I keep flip-flopping my interpretation of that. Could be a moody scum slip. Could also be moody responding to his buddies prodding with the explicit assumption that they're town. Could be a defensive townie moody.

I will try to do more of these the coming days. This was mostly from a moody perspective. Will look at the other side when I do those other reads.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 25, 2019 7:26 pm UTC

I will be mostly afk during both Wednesday and Thursday business hours (UTC+1 time). I gave my reads already but if you need something from me then you shouldn't leave it for the last second. I should be back for deadline though.

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 25, 2019 7:37 pm UTC

plytho wrote:First of all, that's not how you use a result.


Different people use results in different ways. But yes, slowplaying a result to try to flush out the buddy is a very common tactic, and one that you should have considered. bessie did this exact play in D2 of WoT3, for example.

Second: by the time I responded you'd already explained your reasoning.


:|
That's not what I asked you.

third: are you going to answer my questions at some point?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Once again LaserGuy has ignored a question from me too. I'd vote for him except I already am...


I will probably not bother answering all of them. I will triage the questions that I feel are most game-advancing given the time and energy I have available to play. Nobody else is even trying to scum hunt or produce content today (and some people will not be able to produce any useful content until after I flip despite their best efforts), and I don't have the inclination to write giant walls of text to respond to all of the things that I need to, plus try to do a reread of every player, especially when I'm just going to be misrepresented anyway.

Going back to other stuff.
What feels fake about it?


It feels very manufactured to me. You seem to be going out of your way to try to dodge what specifically pinged you. this is the first post where you actually point specifically to the text that was the basis of your entire read on jimbob: In D2, only when I pinned you down on it. Throughout all D1 you were very evasive about what you felt pinged you, allowing people to draw their own conclusions about what they thought your case was supposed to be. Contrast to, say, Meta Mafia, where you posted an extremely nuanced and detailed (albeit incorrect) case on SDK based on a supposed slip. In this game, you needed to have a scumread, but you knew it was weak and weren't interested in actually trying to make a case of it. It wasn't important you to that you be understood correctly, despite multiple people (jimbob, bessie, Sabrar) not seeming to understand what you were going on about. As I said this is the entirety of your case on him... you never try to develop your read any further or analyze his content beyond this in all of D1.

plytho wrote:I asked moody because I felt he was operating under the assumption you were town, which was a scum ping on moody. I was wondering if his read on you would be inconsistent with that assumption. He put you at +4 in his reads list following my question, so there was no inconsistency, making the ping much less strong (but thanks for bringing it back up).


Curious that this was never mentioned in any of your previous reads or analysis. And had moody at neutral at the time, I believe.

I disagree that breaking the tie is suboptimal. I'm pretty sure I'd always break the tie there as town. Even without being on the bloc myself I was going to break the tie. I only changed my mind when I realized I could see what jimbob chose.


But you didn't break the tie, even though you certainly had the opportunity to do so. That aside, the point about consolidating the votes is actually not so much to break the tie, but to encourage people on peripheral wagons to make a decision. Regardless, if you work this out from my point of view, you can see that I personally would not want to break the tie at this juncture, and this is basically NAI.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:What do you mean by "designated lynch"? Are you saying that you believe scum agreed overnight to push your lynch?


I would be very surprised if it wasn't considered. I know how to read a room. Was there another question that I was supposed to be answering or just this one?

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Re: Wams belated simple game

Postby Sabrar » Mon Mar 25, 2019 7:50 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:But yes, slowplaying a result to try to flush out the buddy is a very common tactic, and one that you should have considered.
Come on...
First you think plytho is scum because he didn't consider your quick-vote as a sign of PR-result and now you admonish him that he should have thought of PR slow-playing it, which you absolutely didn't do. Just make up your mind.
What about the other points we brought up why your case is weak as hell? Why do you not address those?

LaserGuy wrote:It wasn't important you to that you be understood correctly, despite multiple people (jimbob, bessie, Sabrar) not seeming to understand what you were going on about.
This is false, when we asked for clarification plytho answered and explained what his ping was. I understood his point, I just disagreed what it meant. It seemed to me that jimbob also understood it but his reply was that it was simply natural for him to do it.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:13 pm UTC

Madge:

1: Votes bessie off of pregame discussion
2: Claims Town. Posts surprisingly (for Madge) detailed reads of Sabrar and mpolo. Softs Town again. NAI Madge stuff.
3: mpolo setup is both townie and scummy, in contrast to previous read where she seemed to find it at least nominally townie.
4: Suggests that she'd shoot either mpolo or Sabrar if she had the choice, but hard to tell how serious she is here. Claims Town again.
5: Doesn't care for my case on jimbob.
6: Setup spec could be a scumtell. Misunderstands my case but things it's NAI for everyone. There's a word "didn't" here that probably should be "haven't" that a very suspicious person might take as significant.
7: FoS bessie, ready for D2. Honestly, I don't think Madge is reading most of the posts except for bessie's.
8: Posts Town to scum list for entertainment purposes only, with moody ending up on bottom and otherwise somewhat sensible based on current content. mpolo's placement is interesting given her earlier remarks on him.
9: Madge being Madge.
10: Unsure why Sabrar is voting for me. Suggestion that bessie failed at being Madge because Madge doesn't get NKed.
11: Non-committal on me vs. Sabrar, likes jimbob and plytho.
12: Madge being Madge.

Not a whole lot to work with. The most interesting part of Madge's content is probably her interest in mpolo, who is probably mentioned the most in terms of actual game-advancing content of any player. Hard to draw anything too useful from here since Madge seems to be consistently reading him as simultaneously townie and scummy. Quick cross-check has mpolo reading Madge as consistent with her meta but nothing out of the ordinary and not addressing any particulars about her content.

The only remark in her content that rings as particularly townie to me is this one:
Bessie failed at being me because I never get nked....


Most of her content is basically NAI. There's a few things that ping a bit townie, and few that ping a bit scummy, but nothing outside her normal range. As I noted earlier, from PoE there's a decent chance of her being mafia.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby moody7277 » Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:39 pm UTC

mpolo

Spoiler:
post 1: confirm
post 2: distillation of the setup
post 3: prefers least powerful mafia setup
post 4: gets caught up in the "sneaky code" thing
post 5: admits searching for scum codes would be useless

Liked the contemporary post which said scum were going to know regardless, which is the best coda for that line

post 6: very impressed by LaserGuy's case on jimbob, RPing players NAI
post 7: complains about being called active lurky, continuing opinion of RPing players, very negative on jimbob

Whether it's active lurky or just lurky, there is a distinct lack of content at this point

post 8: reads list with Sabrar, LG at top, jimbob at bottom. votes jimbob
post 9: missed somi in his reads, no opionion due to HG2G

Really a poor showing.

D2
post 10: surprised by day start, says he must choose between LG and Sabrar
post 11: read through of page 3, most fervent opinion is town!Sabrar
post 12: read through of page 4, main point seems to be jimbob v plytho

IMO, different style of read through doesn't seem to be as useful as isolating players. These two posts seem to be the bulk of his content, aside from sheeping LG's opinion of jimbob. Conclusion: -3
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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:53 pm UTC

Mpolo:

1. Needs to think about setup.
2. Setup analysis. mpolo only considers townie PR compositions and not scum PRs. My inclination is that this is somewhat more likely to be coming from Town.
3. Likes setups with cops.
4. Need to watch for sneaky codes.
5. Response to jimbob's question about how we would find a sneaky code. This strikes me as more oblivious than nefarious.
6. Likes my read on jimbob. Roleplay stuff is NAI.
7. Confused about being read as active lurky rather than just lurky. More on sneaky codes. Somi/bessie stuff is NAI. jimbob scummiest.
8. Reads list. Votes jimbob. Missed somitomi entirely. Not a whole lot to like here. Judging by what is there, he's obviously basing these on a very superficial skim. Would like to see answers to my questions on this from here. Most of the focus here is on what people have been doing rather than what their motivations for doing so is.
9. Comments on missing somitomi.
10. Reads both me and Sabrar as townie, not looking forward to full reread.
11. Detailed read of Page 3.
12. Detailed read of Page 4. I don't actually mind the analysis in either of these two posts. I'm not sure why mpolo is starting all the way back at page 3 at this point given that he's already read and commented on pg. 3 and 4 already. This strikes me as active lurky and it's hard for him to engage the thread in any meaningful way.

I don't get a strong scum vibe from mpolo. His content is lacklustre, especially in D2. I don't know that there's anything outside of his typical range here, but he fits well into most PoE pairings, the only notable exception being jimbob.

[ninja by moody's mpolo read]

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plytho
¡This cheese is burning me!
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Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2008 6:23 pm UTC

Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Mar 25, 2019 9:30 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:But yes, slowplaying a result to try to flush out the buddy is a very common tactic, and one that you should have considered.
Come on...
First you think plytho is scum because he didn't consider your quick-vote as a sign of PR-result and now you admonish him that he should have thought of PR slow-playing it, which you absolutely didn't do. Just make up your mind.
This.
@LaserGuy: did you deliberately pull that snap vote gambit to flush someone out? Or did you vote because of that wagon reasoning?

LaserGuy wrote: :|
That's not what I asked you.
That's really not how questions work. :wink:

LaserGuy wrote:Curious that this was never mentioned in any of your previous reads or analysis. And had moody at neutral at the time, I believe.
Pretty sure I do this all the time. I ask many of my questions with a specific scummy answer in mind if the scummy answer isn't given it adds null to the read and isn't worth mentioning, if it is given I have a scum tell.
LaserGuy wrote:But you didn't break the tie, even though you certainly had the opportunity to do so.
What are you trying to say here? I ended that quote with the reason I didn't break the tie. Should I add that I could do that from my comfortable position of not being a leading wago?
That aside, the point about consolidating the votes is actually not so much to break the tie, but to encourage people on peripheral wagons to make a decision. Regardless, if you work this out from my point of view, you can see that I personally would not want to break the tie at this juncture, and this is basically NAI.
It should be clear to you that I don't see it. Did you consider yourself to be safe?
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