Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

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LaserGuy
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:16 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:@LaserGuy: Given how my ability is worded, I think if one of the targets was commuting that I wouldn't get a result at all, so I'm pretty sure Sabrar doesn't have an ability like that.

Your GF SK theory for Sabrar would also make Moody's result not make any sense (assuming you think both bessie and SJ are mafia). On the other hand, do you really think SK Mark would lie about a cop result that implies one of his targets is mafia? Why would he try to help bessie?


GF!Sabrar would be compatible in scenarios with one mafia of {SJ, Vic} only. SK!Mark is compatible with two mafia if he is not GF and one if he is GF. In the latter case, I could certainly imagine an SK lying about their result since lynching mafia at 5-1-1 is bad for the SK, whereas lynching Town can push to 2-1-1 which is quite favorable to SK.

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SuicideJunkie
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D1)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:32 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
bessie wrote:Do you mean scum has day and night chat? And you are making the following assumptions:
1. Mafia is actively participating in day chat at a high enough level to influence each other’s posting.
2. Mafia partners are at an experience level where they are able to/feel comfortable with giving advice on post content.
3. Mafia partners are willing to forgo “naturalness” of the new player’s posting style and actively advise.


Yes, you're right I have this backward and it should be SJ is Town if scum has daychat. For the rest, in my setup spec of 3 mafia I think the odds of there not being at least one partner who would try to help out a new player, especially one as apparently active and involved as SJ appears to be, is fairly low.
It was a typo and retracted later?
It still sounds like he's framing me as getting help from daychat there despite saying "Town".

If I was replying at regular times, it would look less like waiting for daychat help. Although I suppose it could also look like collusion with whomever I did reply quickly to.
Annoying. This has to be less stressful for the scum since they don't have to be paranoid (everyone actually is out to get them).

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:45 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:GF!Sabrar would be compatible in scenarios with one mafia of {SJ, Vic} only. SK!Mark is compatible with two mafia if he is not GF and one if he is GF. In the latter case, I could certainly imagine an SK lying about their result since lynching mafia at 5-1-1 is bad for the SK, whereas lynching Town can push to 2-1-1 which is quite favorable to SK.


For the first, yeah, that narrows it down to just SJ mafia and Sabrar GF SK if you're town.

If SK!Mark, then lying about the result upon seeing a non-town result is really silly, because:

1) even if it's bad for us to lynch mafia for the SK, it's obviously worse for the SK if they get lynched themselves. Which is exactly what you're pushing for. Just drawing off the heat for a bit by providing a legitimate cop result is better than immediate death.

2) In the case where they really want to force a mislynch, why not just lie about who they targeted then to force the lynch onto another pair of people? I doubt anyone would have tracked Mark last night (and if they had, then he's screwed anyway), and I doubt that he'd be particularly worried about a watcher. If he was, then he could always say he targeted (his NK target) and whoever he wants to try to get lynched and say he got non-town.



@SuicideJunkie: from all the times I've played, I'm wayyyyy more stressed out as scum because I'm always worried about blowing my cover. Town is when I can just relax and try to figure out the puzzle of what's going on.

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Mark_Cangila
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:09 am UTC

@Bessie, the reason I am townreading you is that, if Vicarin isn't lying, you, MoA, and Sabrar are a group of aligned players. Assuming a start with 8 town, which makes the most sense, I doubt we have randomly found all scum. Therefore I am inclined to believe that you three are town.

However, my town read of the {bessie, sabrar, MoA} block requires moody to be scum, or there to be a gf If moody is town those three are scum.
I'm also getting lost on a lot of the nitty gritty about GF versus no GF etc.

Assuming Vic is town and no GF:
It's far more likely that the {bessie, sabrar, MoA} block are all town compared to not town. Therefore, moody must be scum, because there would be 5 mistakes in the result. Me as town, MoA as town, and 3 other people as Not town. Therefore, in that case, I would say that {moody, LG, and SJ} are not town.

As of now, I'm going with such a situation, mainly as Mpolo and Vicarin have seemed pretty townie to me and I'm not really sure where to even start when it comes to a GF. As for original setup spec, I'm guessing either 8-2-2 or 8-2-1-1. 8-2-1-1 starting setup I feel is most likely as it also would explain SJs vote on LG and vice versa. For the time being I'm going to:
FOS: LG
Because it's too early in the day for someone at L-1.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:27 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:- Due to the possibility of 2 deaths overnight Vicarin's ability becomes very dangerous to use, it could put us beyond LYLO if town loses a vote or if scum gets double-vote. The only way to prevent this (and also not interfering with LaserGuy) is for him to block me tonight (obviously).
The safest thing would probably be for Vicarin to withhold. We still have three unclaimed powers and one that can’t be verified. Scum may be able to interfere with Vicarin’s target.

Vicarin wrote: @bessie: what's your theorized scum team looking like?
My current pick for mafia team contains wam and SuicideJunkie.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:36 am UTC

Ok, I'm assuming that you've got a pick for at least one indie of some kind too then. Who is that?

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Sabrar
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:23 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:@Sabrar: using the roleblock isn't actually too dangerous as far as I can tell, as it'd require me to hit a scum member which isn't performing a kill for it to end up making it worse for us than it would be otherwise
Unless the kill is unblockable. Similar to how GF might have been added to compensate for potential multiple cops, SK could theoretically have Strongman to compensate for roleblock/rolestopper/redirect. Or s/he could have delayed kill (like poison), in which case blocking them tonight won't matter for tomorrow's LYLO situation.

If we believe moody's result than SK can only be GF if Mafia has also 1 GF (in 8-3-1), or if Mafia has only 2 members (9-2-1) and no GF. I find both scenarios unlikely. But SK without GF is somewhat weak. So if we accept moody's result then my guess is 9-3 with GF and additional kill-ability in the hands of scum.

Vicarin wrote:For the first, yeah, that narrows it down to just SJ mafia and Sabrar GF SK if you're town.
Could you explain this in more detail? Are you saying that if LaserGuy is town then I must be GF!SK?

bessie wrote:The safest thing would probably be for Vicarin to withhold.
Could be.

SuicideJunkie seems a bit pre-occupied with wam here (count the times he mentions him in the first few lines).

"I also am aware that I seem to be the only one left aside from wam with a non-negative opinion on wam, and am thus likely wrong about it." This was an early backpedalling from him when there wasn't any serious pressure on wam just yet.

We need LaserGuy's ability tonight to be able to solve the game tomorrow. SuicideJunkie is uncooperative with an unknown power and a bad reason to hide it.

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Vicarin
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:56 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Vicarin wrote:For the first, yeah, that narrows it down to just SJ mafia and Sabrar GF SK if you're town.
Could you explain this in more detail? Are you saying that if LaserGuy is town then I must be GF!SK?


If me, moody, Mark are all town, and none of the results have been redirected or anything (which is the first case LaserGuy was considering), then LaserGuy being town would force SuicideJunkie to be scum and for there to be a GF, presumably an SK. Which you would be a decent candidate for. You're not exactly being forthcoming with your power either, while criticizing SuicideJunkie for the same. How about you cough up some information? Like why you think you haven't received messages?

Also, I wouldn't rely on having LaserGuy's ability to help solve the game tomorrow. If he's town, then his power almost certainly goes after NKs unless something weird goes on, and that may mean that if he dies in the night that it might not work properly. If it does work though, great.

If SuicideJunkie doesn't share what his power does and/or give an actual theory for what the situation is right now, then he's a fine lynch candidate too. I mainly don't like LaserGuy's behavior D2 with regards to the Mark and wam wagons though. The observations by Sabrar with regards to SJ's comments on wam don't look great either.

I'll consider withholding, but I could also just not say whether I'm going to block or protect tonight. If scum wants to try to redirect me not knowing the effect of what I'm going to do, then they can have fun doing so :P.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:28 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:If me, moody, Mark are all town, and none of the results have been redirected or anything (which is the first case LaserGuy was considering), then LaserGuy being town would force SuicideJunkie to be scum and for there to be a GF, presumably an SK.
This is incorrect from your pov, it would be possible for SJ to be town if scum is {bessie, MoA, Sabrar, wam} in any formation (but without GF).

Vicarin wrote:You're not exactly being forthcoming with your power either, while criticizing SuicideJunkie for the same.
My power is proven and verifiable. I will claim it tomorrow.

Vicarin wrote:Also, I wouldn't rely on having LaserGuy's ability to help solve the game tomorrow. If he's town, then his power almost certainly goes after NKs unless something weird goes on,
Where does this observation come from? LaserGuy seemed to think otherwise:
LaserGuy wrote:I'm very surprised my action processed before a NK as that seems very unintuitive as far as action resolution is concerned. But it may mean I can essentially protect one power from the NK.

Besides, if he's killed then that's one less suspect we have to worry about. You are currently voting for him but you are concerned that he might be nk-d? That's weird.

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Mark_Cangila
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:43 pm UTC

Also, I'm also gonna FOS SJ and FOS Moody. I'm split between which of the three to vote for. I'm leaning toward LG or SJ.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:41 pm UTC

bessie

Spoiler:
D1
post 1: checking off all her standard early game things, couple of Foses, dislikes LG's mass claim idea intensely
post 2: lampshading the checklist to new player SJ
post 3: Fos on wam and revs up the argument at Sabrar about the confirmation posts, few more responses, votes Sabrar
post 4: Notices and dislikes quiet!Sabrar, asks wam about MoA, reply to SJ about her meta
post 5: Likes BF's observation re quiet!Sabrar, starts her post counting, pokes Mark for content, notices Madge's off reaction to quiet!Sabrar, unvote

Seems like she had dropped the grumpiness I thought I saw in the first few posts.

post 6: trying to get a justification from Sabrar
post 7: pointed comments at wam about his opinion of her voting, seems to develop a negative read of him

Cynical View here: she's distancing

post 8: replies to Sabrar, piqued by his positive read of LG, still concerned Madge seems oblivious to quiet!Sabrar, still trying to check her theory for quiet!Sabrar by getting Mark to post (in and of itself townie)
post 9: explains her test of Sabrar's seeming restriction to plytho and contests my impression that grumpy bessie is a new thing. unofficial votals
post 10: various replies about her prodding people for content, to Mark re coaching, several to MoA, post count 2

Looking back, it is amazing how much grief she was getting about prodding people for content. Even her main purpose of trying out her theory of quiet!Sabrar having a restriction had the knock on effect of getting Sabrar able to post more, which is still townie

post 11: disputes plytho's point about her reads list timing, post count 3, couple of encouragement points to Mark and SJ
post 12: town->scum list with LG, Sabrar towniest, wam and Madge scummiest. votes wam, open to voting Madge
post 13: replies to plytho's pointed comments at her, none of which I find fault with. unofficial votals and post count 4
post 14: switches vote to MoA, which was her third scummiest pick
post 15: end of day fluff

D2
post 16: more discussion with plytho about reads, disputes my theory on the end of day voting shuffle but also suspicious of wam, post count 5
post 17: video reply to Mark about wam
post 18: tries to console SJ for leading a town wagon, exhaustive list on the N1 no NK, more wagon analysis where she doesn't like wam and isn't pleased with me and plytho either, post count 6
post 19: still doesn't like my explanation for wam and her switching votes end of D1, finds wam's cop claim to be useless, frustrated by people's acceptance of it, votals and post count 7
post 20: sass to me about me directly asking questions

Apparently I was wrong about grumpy bessie being so uncommon (as she pointed out in post 9)

post 21: pokes wam on previous question
post 22: replay of her responses to plytho from previously about her trying to get people to post more, post count 8
post 23: expansion of quiet!Sabrar theory to explicitly say scum might know for sure and are intentionally gaming it, GF speculation, votals and post count 9
post 24: reply to LG disputing a Mark lynch, reply to Mark about previous player-submitted games, post count 10
post 25: couple more responses, votals and post count 11
post 26: reply to BoomFrog about which cop claim he wants to lynch
post 27: votes wam and hammer alert
post 28: replies: asks SJ about his opinion on cop claims, wants town->scum lists, from mpolo and MoA in particular, post count 12
post 29: suggests alternative for BF's read of Sabrar wrt his game mechanics focus, refutes SJ's reason for the cop claims theory with example of Mark, pokes me and mpolo for posts, post count 13
post 30: summary of D2 SJ that looks really fluffy (his posts not her analysis), town to scum list with me and Sabrar up top, wam and BF at bottom
post 31: okay with mpolo's reappearance, wants more from MoA, post count 14
post 32: disputes BF's dismissal of wam's scumminess as typical of him, more encouraging to SJ

About here was where I was thinking she's being a little OCD with the post counts in that it felt like she was doing them every post. I've seen them done in previous games (including one game I did them myself) a long time ago, and the main point is one she made in that they are in addition to not instead of content.

D3
post 33: Thanks Vicarin for subbing in, and immediately starts in on him on his take on the quiet!Sabrar theory
post 34: claims message from MoA, continues discussion with Vicarin, data dump re post counts, with wam (conf scum) and SJ most significant drops
post 35: really dislikes the person who submitted BF's role, other responses to Vicarin including defending her method, suspicious of SJ, post count 15
post 36: response to Vicarin and SJ, votals and post count 16
post 37: response to Sabrar re the voteblock doctor, scumteam of wam and SJ


The theory that makes her want people to post more, the data collection and partial analysis from it both point to a townie read. The cynical view above that she's been distancing wam all game is a really long con I can't make myself take seriously. Final score: +7.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby MasterOfAll » Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:19 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Vicarin wrote:Also, I wouldn't rely on having LaserGuy's ability to help solve the game tomorrow. If he's town, then his power almost certainly goes after NKs unless something weird goes on,
Where does this observation come from? LaserGuy seemed to think otherwise:
LaserGuy wrote:I'm very surprised my action processed before a NK as that seems very unintuitive as far as action resolution is concerned. But it may mean I can essentially protect one power from the NK.

Besides, if he's killed then that's one less suspect we have to worry about. You are currently voting for him but you are concerned that he might be nk-d? That's weird.
My role and BoomFrog's role were swapped on N2, the same night that BoomFrog was killed. So I have no idea why Vic would think the swap power happens after NK.


I don't see any need for a mass claim right now, but would certainly like to hear a claim from SuicideJunkie. And if LaserGuy wants to add anything else we don't already know (swap ability; can't target same player 2 nights in a row) that would be good, too.

Sabrar and bessie and moody (I am assuming there are some still unknown things about his role) claiming tomorrow sounds good to me.


I trust Vicarin to determine how best to use his abilities tonight, whether it's roleblocking a trusted town player just to give the double vote or protecting a suspected scum player to remove their vote or to use abilities to actually try to stop a kill.


Here is my current list:
Naughty
LaserGuy
SuicideJunkie
Mark_Cangila
bessie
moody
mpolo
Sabrar
Nice

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby MasterOfAll » Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:27 pm UTC

ebwop:

Naughty
LaserGuy
SuicideJunkie
Mark_Cangila
bessie
moody
mpolo Vicarin
Sabrar
Nice

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:59 pm UTC

LaserGuy

Spoiler:
D1
post 1: joke vote Sabrar, suggests mass claim

Cynical View here: this is role fishing on the grandest scale possible

post 2: explains call for mass claim in that scum already have oodles of info regarding roles, also wants to do the Sabrar thing of logicing the game, analysis of reactions to call for mass claim

It was this post that made me so bullish on LG early on

post 3: votes Madge based off analysis
post 4: modifying role claim scheme, mod speculation wrt point by MoA
post 5: dismisses Madge's compromise of rolename claim as insufficiently helpful to town, more mod speculation wrt how it affects the claiming
post 6: questioning SJ regarding the Table of Reads
post 7: pinged by wam looking oblivious in his read of Sabrar
post 8: votes wam
post 9: scum read Mark, town read Sabrar
post 10: decides to town read SJ based on lack of coaching, deconstructs SJ's assumptions for Table of Reads
post 11: reads post, plytho Sabrar towniest, Madge Mark wam scummiest
post 12: being convinced on scumminess of MoA, switches vote to MoA
post 13: "lack of action" on MoA wagon leads him to switching vote to Madge

Not sure what to make of the "lack of action" idea, but she was further down on his list, at the time this vote seems to make sense. Cynical View here: he couldn't get a mislynch on MoA, so he switched to Madge

D2
post 14: some vote analysis with wam looking scummy, develops line between BF and Mark, dubious of one cop claim, with me most trustworthy, reads with Mark and wam still scummiest, BF connected to Mark not wam
post 15: discussion with Mark about reasoning on his read of wam
post 16: increasing post count for bessie
post 17: fluff following post 16
post 18: agrees with Sabrar on analysis of my list
post 19: lynch strategy wrt GF role, preference for Mark
post 20: (can't tell out of context)
post 21: commenting on BoomFrog and bessie forgetting about BF being voteless, accuses BF of rolefishing, votes Mark for one more misunderstanding of how roles were made
post 22: BF, Mark scumteam, Sabrar town
post 23: explains modvote to SJ
post 24: reads post with wam, Mark and BF, scummy, everyone else degrees of townie
post 25: swapping power not repeatable
post 26: reasoning on targeting: didn't want to screw up townier players with unclear power, translating that to players via reads (with the caveat of wam's late D1 cop claim)

Turned out wrong about BF, but then hey, it's BoomFrog. Reasoning in last post for power use looks sound, and seems to be a genuine concern for bad interactions with townie powers

D3
post 27: explanation to Vic about N2 usage and repeat of some caveats from post 26
post 28: guess relating to the sudden possibility of SK
post 29: speculation on origin of second kill, Mark as SK
post 30: asks Sabrar for swap
post 31: asks Mark about his targeting from mpolo's former power, really upset by lack of reads
post 32: rebuttal of some points by SJ, basically shows SJ was flinging mud
post 33: request correction to votals
post 34: tries out theory about lack of N1 kills, short summary of his analysis of cop results, would rather hunt scum

The point I can think of against this theory is that if he figures Mark is SK, he's not the type of player I would expect to withhold a kill. Still leaves Mark targeting BF as possible by his point 2.

post 35: addendum to theory on what happened N1
post 36: rebuttal to MoA of why he's including bulletproof and GF in his analysis
post 37: reply to Vic about his ideas on scum properties and how it affects results


His switching power is confirmed by too many people for them to be coordinating scum. Even if there are scum among the involved parties (at this point, that would most likely be Mark) they seem to be playing along with it. Reads and analysis look townie. Final score +5.5
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby moody7277 » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:05 pm UTC

Synthesizing old and new impressions

town
bessie +7
Sabrar +7
MasterOfAll +7
LaserGuy +5.5
Vicarin +5
SuicideJunkie +3
Mark 0
scum

based on the logic from my most recent analysis of my and other cop claims, I would prefer the Gang of 3 cleared first, so

Vote: SuicideJunkie
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:45 pm UTC

@Sabrar: Bah, muddled up the order of resolution for the NK and LaserGuy. That should work fine then. And although I think there's a pretty damn good chance he's scum, I was worried scum killing the lynchpin of our strategy if we're relying on it too hard.

I'd already explained why I thought {wam, bessie, MoA, Sabrar} would be rather unlikely at the top of the previous page, but yes, it is technically possible. It'd be rather amazing if me and Mark had managed to target only scum between us though...

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:29 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Ok, I'm assuming that you've got a pick for at least one indie of some kind too then. Who is that?
I’m still trying to decide if the setup is 9-3 or something else. I keep coming back to 9-3 feels right to me, 9-2-1 and 8-3-1 do not. If we have indies, it might be 8-2-1-1, with one indie that can win with town, and one that can’t. If we have indies, I can make an argument for anyone, with Mark, MoA, LaserGuy being strongest (in that order). I’m not really interested in devoting my limited time to it now though, as I think we need to focus on mafia, and the indie discussion is a distraction.

Mark_Cangila wrote:Also, I'm also gonna FOS SJ and FOS Moody. I'm split between which of the three to vote for. I'm leaning toward LG or SJ.
What are your reasons for the FoS? Is the moody FoS because of the cop results as you discussed in this post? Why SuicideJunkie?

Mark, can you make some reads independent of any cop results, just based on player content? Or at the very least, can you make an ordered list today, and do reads as you have time, perhaps focusing on your scum picks first?

moody7277 wrote:Looking back, it is amazing how much grief she was getting about prodding people for content.
+1, QFT, grumble grumble.
moody7277 wrote:Apparently I was wrong about grumpy bessie being so uncommon
8-)

Counting posts is fast, and easier to do often. I think it just seems like a lot because I usually only post at night (as opposed to throughout the day). When I did more, it was intentional, to prod the lurkers.

MasterOfAll wrote:Sabrar and bessie and moody (I am assuming there are some still unknown things about his role) claiming tomorrow sounds good to me.
I’m fine with claiming tomorrow, I’ll even claim first if that is the general consensus. I agree SuicideJunkie should probably claim today.


Vote: SuicideJunkie


Reasons: D1 there were a few minor odd things, like it seems he was being intentionally ambiguous about his mafia experience at first, and about how many games he had read (according to this post, 3-5 recent games, later amended in this post to include the DS9 Secret Santa game from 2013). There is also the auto-meta-read of me, which in the past would have been highly suspicious and I’ve ranted in detail and at length about it in previous games (insert a dozen examples, available upon request). This would actually make sense if SJ had been a long-time lurker, and had read all the 2017 games, especially Secret Santa 2017. But he claims he’s only read a few games from the past year, and as I pointed out, my record this year is only about 50-50, so my meta hasn’t been the topic of discussion that it has been previously (note: in the five most recent games, I was town in 1, scum in 2, and didn’t play 2). So where did this read come from?

Suspicious posts on D2: attributing no NK to mafia withholding and some odd posts re Madge, see my reactions to both here. Also note decreased post count on D2 (and now on D3), as previously stated I believe that on D2 the mafia team thought Sabrar has a post restriction, and was keeping their post counts low.

I’ve already pointed out SuicideJunkie’s focus on game mechanics on D1 and D2 (and see this post where I question his misunderstanding how Secret Santa is set up because of his focus on mechanics). See also here where I warn him that he is dangerously close to active lurking. There is a shift away from discussion of game mechanics on D3, could it be because of my prodding? I am skeptical because he still doesn’t have a lot of analysis or reads, so the shift may just be because he no longer has wam’s cop result to analyze, and shift discussion focus to finding scum in BoomFrog/bessie/LaserGuy.

SuicideJunkie, you still need to answer this:
bessie wrote:I’m starting to wonder why you have such a strong town read on me. What have I done that is particularly townie?


D3 post count:
Spoiler:
bessie: 5
LaserGuy: 10
Mark_Cangila: 4
MasterOfAll: 10
moody7277: 9
Sabrar: 6
SuicideJunkie: 6
Vicarin: 18

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Vicarin
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:10 am UTC

Somewhat worrying: both NKs last night were reading SJ as newbie town before they died (though BoomFrog was reconsidering if he didn't put out any analysis soon). For what reason would SJ kill either of them if he's the remaining mafia member? Neither of their powers were particularly amazing (assuming MoA is telling the truth), so it isn't because they got rolecopped, and we had at least 2 non-wam cop claims out in the open, along with me being able to doctor people.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Sun Jan 06, 2019 4:03 am UTC

Bessie:
I can't speak to your actual scum rate. I never looked for it. Your townie meta has been mentioned more than a few times, and that kind of thing is obviously not a lie due to its obviousness to the others.
I haven't seen anything from you that I would consider sketchy. Everyone else was doing strange things at one time or another. I presume that's just the way you are, and ties into the meta reads.
It would be a bit absurd to say that you are scum because you didn't do suspicious things. If you are scum, then I can only stand in amazement and applaud your work.

Since it is down to this, my power is self-defence/revenge. I suspect it may have been tailored for a newbie. The ideal result for town would have been for me to be NKed unknowingly by the mafia, but that never happened. Being vig-ed would suck.
I certainly don't have daychat with the scum, and I expect everyone else has a better idea of who is what than I do.

If I die this evening, at least I'll go out having been fooled many times, but having never lied.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Jan 06, 2019 4:18 am UTC

Soooo you're claiming to be a bomb? Well, that actually makes some stuff easier if we can organize the lynch order (I'm assuming that it fires on being lynched too?).

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Jan 06, 2019 4:20 am UTC

Also, roles were randomly distributed as always, so you don't get something in particular for being a newbie. I got to be a naive cop in my first game here, and then got NKed N1 :D (though I had played other kinds of mafia on other sites, I hadn't mentioned it before the game started I believe).

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:23 am UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:Vicarin:
I suppose it hasn't. I need to wait for preconditions to use it, and my guesses haven't been the best so far.
If scum hear about it, then it won't work.
How do your guesses figure into this? Do you have to guess correctly who's trying to kill you??? Why not just claim the exact ability since now scum wouldn't kill you anyway?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:39 am UTC

Hmmmmmm..........

@SuicideJunkie: who exactly did you target N1 and N2?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby MasterOfAll » Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:59 pm UTC

Yeah, I'm not buying SuicideJunkie's claim, at all. It doesn't seem to mesh with the little bit he previously told us.

Right now, I count 2 votes on SJ (Sabrar and bessie) and one fake vote (moody).

With just about 25 hours to go, I don't see an issue with bringing him to L-1. And if nobody wants to hammer for fear that SJ does have bomb-like qualities, I'm ok with being the guinea pig.

Vote: SuicideJunkie

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:51 pm UTC

Mark, I’ve seen you lurking. Please make a few posts, preferably with some game content in them. If you need some ideas, you can refer to my previous post.

SuicideJunkie, I’m hard to read, or you could say I’m easy to town read, that’s why I was lynched in Texas Hold’em. There is a reason why and an associated continuing joke about this for. . . many years. My point was that I don’t see how you independently came to that conclusion by reading two games, especially these particular two games (Texas and B99).

SuicideJunkie wrote:Since it is down to this, my power is self-defence/revenge. I suspect it may have been tailored for a newbie.
Setup and distribution of roles has already been discussed, several times. And I see bomb as a very challenging role for a newbie. But that’s not what you claimed, is it?

I am 99% certain I will not be available the last few hours before deadline, as I will be at work and in a meeting with upper management. If anyone wants a response from me to anything, please post within the next 12 hours.

D3 post count:
Spoiler:
bessie: 6
LaserGuy: 10
Mark_Cangila: 4
MasterOfAll: 11
moody7277: 9
Sabrar: 7
SuicideJunkie: 7
Vicarin: 22

Unofficial votals:

LaserGuy (2) : Vicarin, SuicideJunkie
SuicideJunkie (3) : Sabrar, bessie, MasterOfAll

Not voting : LaserGuy, Mark_Cangila
Can’t vote : moody7277

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:21 pm UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:Yeah, I'm not buying SuicideJunkie's claim, at all. It doesn't seem to mesh with the little bit he previously told us.

Right now, I count 2 votes on SJ (Sabrar and bessie) and one fake vote (moody).

With just about 25 hours to go, I don't see an issue with bringing him to L-1. And if nobody wants to hammer for fear that SJ does have bomb-like qualities, I'm ok with being the guinea pig.

Vote: SuicideJunkie


I think it makes more sense for me to be the last vote on him since I'm the alternate wagon.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:46 pm UTC

Got a theory, but I need SJ to tell the truth about his targeting so far. If he doesn't, lynching him is probably our only choice. Worried about what happened N2 though to cause 2 kills...

Unvote: LaserGuy

Until we sort out exactly what's going on here.

I doubt he's actually a Bomb, but I would appreciate LaserGuy hammering if SJ is uncooperative today.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:52 am UTC

I did say that the knowledge of it is a problem. The mafia won't trigger it via NK to hurt them, and are getting me lynched instead.
Hey, Moody, did you just vote when not allowed to vote, like Boomfrog did yesterday? That might get you killed too.

Gives me some ideas for optional and/or easy to violate post restriction mechanics.

In any case, since I don't have the charisma or time to talk my way out of a lynch here, lets just cut the blue wire.
Vote SuicideJunkie

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:05 am UTC

That's hammer! No more posting. Day end post to follow when I get home this evening.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:35 pm UTC

After how long the previous day had dragged on for, this day seemed to go much faster for some reason. However, in many regards otherwise, it was basically the same. Sir Jimbob was disappointed that none of the group seemed to be rushing off to take on the beast up the mountain. How could the quest conclude, if everybody was being too selfless and wanting everyone else to go and defeat the Mouse. He even briefly considered going up himself, only to remember that as the local Representative, he was forbidden to get between the others and the quest’s goal. At least, that’s what he kept telling himself…

Today’s arguments were largely based on what several of the knights claimed they’d witnessed or found out about each other. Cries of “Sir LaserGuy crossed the Great Gorge to defeat the Fell Feline” and “Sir SuicideJunkie is well-known for his service alongside the servants, putting himself no higher than others” rang around the camp as each knight put forward their argument for why others should go and not them. Some didn’t commit to any opinion, even though they weren’t willing to put themselves in.

It was early evening as the knights gathered at the foot of the hill. The candidates were already armed and armoured, knowing that their fates might be sealed soon, as the rest of the group tried to swing things this way or that. Although not everybody had committed to an opinion, it seemed like the balance was pretty even between the two.

Suddenly, with an hour still to go before the deadline, Sir SuicideJunkie raised their voice. “I’ve had enough of all your arguments. I put myself through the hard work of helping out the kitchen servants. I’m taking things into my own hands, and I deserve to go.”

With that, they dashed up the hill.

Sir Sabrar, felt a sense of compulsion to go after the other knight. Although in their mind, Sir SuicideJunkie was the most deserving, taking it upon themself was certainly not appropriate. They ran off to try to stop the errant knight, leaving the other knights looking slightly bewildered. From a distance, they could hear a loud amount of noise, and suddenly a small explosion from the top. What could have happened? Darkness was falling. They’d need to wait until morning for it to be safe to brave the hill again.

SuicideJunkie has been lynched. Sabrar has been killed.

Votals:

SuicideJunkie (4): Sabrar, bessie, MasterOfAll, SuicideJunkie

Not voting: Vicarin, moody7277, Mark_Cangila, LaserGuy

It is now night. Please submit your night actions. Night deadline in approximately 48 hours. Deadline timer.

PLEASE REMEMBER THAT YOU MAY NOT READ SPOILERS UNTIL TOLD YOU CAN!
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N3)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:07 pm UTC

Day 4: Explosive Presents


Several of the knights did not get much sleep that night, as they considered all that had happened the previous day. Some questioned what honour truly means, whilst others tried to figure out why Sir SuicideJunkie had gone off dashing up the hill. Others wondered why Sir Sabrar had gone chasing after them. Sir Jimbob woke up wondering what the groans were that were coming from one of the other knights’ tents. Several squires were running around it, and soon enough, they emerged carrying Sir Vicarin. The knight was clearly very unwell. Could it be last knight’s stew had one bad bit in or something? It was off to the apothecary with that knight, and doubtful they’d return. After the squires had left, Sir Jimbob went into the tent to take a look at what was going on in there. It certainly smelt terrible, though whether it was just the remains of half-digested stew, or something else, he couldn’t tell. Still, it would be best to check that their personal belongings were, um, safe… It mostly consisted of a set of books, labelled things like “Philosophy for Beginners” and “How to be a Philosophical Knight”. What strange interests…

Vicarin has been "killed" during the night. They were Sir Cupid the Confused, a member of Town:
Spoiler:
Character Name: Sir Cupid the Confused

Flavour:

You always feel like you can figure things out based on differences. Unfortunately, nothing is quite the same, so it can get very confusing at times if you try to compare too much. Still, maybe you can figure out people’s relative goals if you compare exactly two of them together at any one time.

Role: Yin Yang

Mechanics: Each night you may target a player. You may choose for that player to either be rendered immune to all other powers that night and voteless the next Day phase, or be roleblocked that night and gain a double vote the next Day phase. The vote change will be publicly announced at Day start.

Win Condition: You are a member of the Town and win when all threats to Town have been eliminated, and at least one member of Town is still alive.

Hidden Mechanics:
If a player targets another player a second time with this ability, the choice made is automatically inverted, if a third time, it is normal, a fourth inverted again and so on.
How strange. Anyway, it was time to summon the troops and find out what had happened to Sirs SuicideJunkie and Sabrar. The remaining five knights all gathered around Sir Jimbob and they all proceeded up the hill, weapons drawn. Who knows where the Mouse might jump from at any minute? The fact that the two had not returned was clear indication that it was to be feared. Near the top where the Mouse had first been sighted, there was a small crater, and two armoured figures lying unconscious nearby. It looked like they’d been sent flying by whatever caused the explosion.

The group checked them out and their belongings, like any good knight would do. Sir Sabrar appeared to be wearing a strange vest of somekind. It seemed to be missing something on one side, as evidenced by the fact that there were several black orbs tied to the other. One of the knights went to grab it when Sir Jimbob shouted “Stop! I know that device. I’ve seen Sir Sabrar make strange things like that before. If you touch it, it could explode and kill us all! I suspect something like that must have happened to him. Everybody knows that his experiments don’t always go to plan. And look here, he has some kind of journal that’s been part torn apart. The last readable sheet says something about the vest bringing someone closer to them. I wonder who?”


Sabrar “died” at the end of Day 3. He was Sir Dasher the Resourceful, a member of Town.
Spoiler:
Character Name: Sir Dasher the Resourceful

Flavour:

You have become well known throughout the kingdom for your ability to turn seemingly useless items into impressive-looking weapons or suits of armour. Sometimes they are even practical! I suppose you have the compulsory blacksmith training to thank for that…

Role: Inventor

Mechanics: Each night, target another player and send the mods a PM containing what item you wish to give them. The item will have a one-shot ability of your choice. Be warned: the more powerful the ability, the more likely it is to have some sort of negative side-effect (which may be a hidden mechanic). You may not target the same player more than once with this ability.

Win Condition: You are a member of the Town and win when all threats to Town have been eliminated, and at least one member of Town is still alive.

Hidden Mechanics:
Standard abilities like bulletproof, cop, watcher, tracker etc will not have any side-effects. Example negative effects are greedy investigative powers (e.g. mass cops) giving false results or greedy protective or obstructive powers might backfiring in some fashion (e.g. making a kill unblockable).
Sabrar was wearing a Neighbourizing Suicide Vest.

Sir SuicideJunkie’s pack included a whole load of scrolls and other scribblings, many of which had been torn apart, but some which were just understandable. They appeared to be all sorts of curses and spells, the kind that the local witch liked to use. They too had a journal, which was more intact than Sir Sabrar’s. It mostly contained rants about being maltreated and how the knight planned on “showing them all”.

SuicideJunkie has been lynched. He was Sir Vixen the Grumpy, Serial Killer.
Spoiler:
Character Name: Sir Vixen the Grumpy

Flavour:

It’s not really a surprise that you are so grumpy; you always seem to get the worst jobs. Whether it be cleaning out the stables or scrubbing the cooking pots, it always seems to land on you. And you’re supposed to be a noble knight! Fortunately, a recent visit to the local witch has given you a set of curses you can place on people. However, your sense of honour means they have to do something extra-serious before you can really set them off.

Power: Disgruntled Christmas Elf

Mechanics: Each night, you may place a curse on one player. That player will remain cursed for the rest of the game. If you are ever lynched, all players who voted for you and were cursed will also die. If you are ever killed by an ability, all cursed players who targeted you that Day/Night will die at the end of that Day/Night phase.

Win Condition:
You are a Serial Killer. You win when all other players have been eliminated. You do not need to be alive to achieve this win condition!

Factional Abilities: Every other night you may target a player with a kill. You may not kill on consecutive nights. You may kill and curse on the same night.

Hidden Mechanics: None
How disturbing! A knight who felt abused by the whole rest of the group! And who would go to the lengths of seeking a witch’s assistance too!

The group searched the immediate area for a few minutes. There were the remains of various half-eaten creatures strewn around the hilltop, but no sign of the Mouse. It certainly didn’t die from the explosion, that much was clear. As they gathered to discuss their next plan, Sir bessie’s faithful hound started barking.

“She’s picked up a scent!” cried Sir bessie. “Quick, let’s follow it, before the Mouse gets away!”

The whole group charged off, leaving the two unconscious figures lying there alone still.


It is now Day 4. Deadline will be on 8pm UTC, Monday the 14th.

Votals:

None

Not voting: Everybody

With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:26 pm UTC

So moody's result:

Three errors in:

town
LaserGuy
Boomfrog
Sabrar
plytho

bessie
mpolo
SuicideJunkie

not-town
MoA
Mark_Cangila
wam

Of which one has been identified correctly.

Possibilities:
-MoA is Godfather and Mark is scum, all others correct.
-MoA is Town, Mark is Town, and bessie is Godfather.
-MoA is Town, Mark is scum, bessie is scum.
-moody is scum and his result is BS.

For completeness, I think I am interchangeable with bessie in every scenario.

As far as voting is concerned, we should probably act under the assumption that we are in LYLO.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby moody7277 » Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:32 pm UTC

Results from last night. Used my second of two chances with list making, so whoever got it from me being swapped is most likely out of luck. List follows:

1 mistake

Nice

bessie
Vicarin (town)
MasterOfAll
Mark_Cangila

Naughty

LaserGuy
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby MasterOfAll » Thu Jan 10, 2019 1:43 am UTC

And then there were 5.

I don't have any meaningful results to share from last night. I did check one of you for coal residue, but it came back negative, which pretty much confirms that moody's list ability doesn't count as a targeting.

Also, I did give a new piece of coal to one of you last night, so feel free to speak up if you received it.


moody's new result is quite interesting. Without spending too much time thinking about it, either
1. There are 2 mafia left (LaserGuy + 1 other)
2. There is 1 mafia GF left (could be anyone)

And looking back at moody's N1 result:
town
LaserGuy
Boomfrog
Sabrar
plytho

bessie
mpolo/Vic
SuicideJunkie


not-town
MoA
Mark_Cangila
wam
Above is what is known, so only 1 error confirmed (SJ). I know that I am the 2nd. If we make Mark the 3rd, then we are in agreement with option 2 above: just 1 scum GF left.

Or, we make LaserGuy the 3rd, and we are in agreement with option 1 above, but with 'other'='Mark_Cangila': LaserGuy + Mark are both scum.

I would have to do a full re-read to see if a LaserGuy-wam-Mark scum team made any sense. I'm not sure when I'll have time for such an endeavor.


I'm guessing that bessie has ended up with moody's now useless (so he claims) role and that he has her old one. If this is the case, do either of you have opinions on whether it makes sense to withhold info on the last role that isn't generally known? (LaserGuy has the role swapping ability, Mark has the co-alignment cop ability that started with mpolo/Vicarin, I have the coal gifting ability that started with BoomFrog.)

@bessie - if you do have moody's old role, please confirm that he has been fully truthful. As all of the above is based on moody being town and honest about role and results.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby bessie » Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:40 am UTC

I had my role swapped. My new role is consistent with moody’s claim. moody, don’t reveal my old role yet.

LaserGuy, please claim all your targets last night.

MasterOfAll, please confirm all your N1 and N2 targets.

Mark, please claim your results.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:12 am UTC

I swapped you and moody last night. I also targeted Mark with some bells I received on N2, presumably from Sabrar. I'm not sure if the bells actually activated as the flavor seemed to suggest another interaction with some sort of sleeping herbs.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:15 am UTC

The bells should have revealed Mark's targets.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby MasterOfAll » Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:28 am UTC

bessie wrote:MasterOfAll, please confirm all your N1 and N2 targets.
My N1 and N2 message targets were identical, and in this order: Sabrar, bessie, SuicideJunkie, mpolo/Vicarin, plytho

Other than those messages, I didn't use any other abilities on N1 or N2.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby bessie » Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:35 am UTC

Mark, please also claim whether or not you received coal.

moody7277 wrote:Used my second of two chances with list making, so whoever got it from me being swapped is most likely out of luck.
Why did you feel the need to claim this? (And what do you mean by whoever? There was no one else available.)

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D4)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:17 pm UTC

I received coal.

I am also thinking MoA might be a godfather, which adds up with both of moody's lists. I also XORed Bessie and Vicarin and found they are both aligned. Therefore, Bessie is town.


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