Alien Warfare Mafia (GAME OVER)

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SDK
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby SDK » Thu May 03, 2018 2:16 pm UTC

Sorry everyone! Something came up yesterday afternoon with the family, and it took a bit longer to finish up at work than I expected. So let's go.

Maven89 wrote:I'd guess a setup around 8-3-2 or 7-3-3 or 6-3-3-1, maybe. I don't see any fourth faction being more than a survivor if a fourth faction even exists

I agree with this, though if there is a fourth, I doubt it's a survivor. SK might make sense, assuming my assumptions are correct.

Vicarin wrote:At the moment, I'm mostly worried about what the hell the alien win conditions are, in order to fit with the town win condition.

Maybe I can help with that!

So! Everyone knows there are two alien factions in this game. They are not only named in my role PM, I've also been told (or, heavily implied) that they have very different goals.

1) The Mercora are a peaceful race. There are definitely more than one of them in this game, but the feeling I get from my info here is that they are a race of survivors. I'm basically 100% sure they can win with humans, and I assume they can win with the proper mafia faction as well. Speaking of which...
2) The Garatron are a hostile race. Specifically, they want to destroy all humans. Their relationship with the Mercora is not explicit, but if I'm right about the survivor thing, seems to me that they're willing to let the other faction live.

That helps to narrow down the setup greatly. Typical 13 player balance suggests a 3 or 4 person mafia team. If we have one mafia faction (the Garatron) alongside a bunch of neutrals, that's almost certainly 3. Having a full compliment of 3 survivors in a team feels like too many... it's a nice mirror image, but they would swing the game like crazy (anyone remember Diablo mafia?). There are definitely more than one, so it's a flip between 2 and 3, depending on how much heury took the swinginess into account.

So we've got 3 mafia, and 2-3 survivors, leaving 7-8 other players. The game would be fully balanced if those 7-8 were all humans, but it's also possible we've got 7 humans and one unknown factor there. With only one nightkill (presumably), heury may have chosen to slot in an SK. Not sure. Definitely not an extra survivor though (again, assuming I'm reading the signs correctly).

End result: 7-3-3, 7-3-2-1, 8-3-2 seem mostly likely to me.


The reason I'm sharing this now is based on what heury said about reveals in the morning. You'll get my role name, but not this information. Figured it was pretty important to get that out there in case I die in the night. Got some decent play on the wincon in the meantime, so hopefully this can shake things up a bit for the second half of Day 1.


I think that indirectly answers most of the questions asked of me, but I'll get a full read through done today, complete with a full list of reads. @Sabrar, my feeling at the moment is that bessie is likely town.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu May 03, 2018 2:20 pm UTC

If I wasn't voting SDK already, I'd be doubling down now on him. SDK, please claim your faction.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu May 03, 2018 2:21 pm UTC

Nobody else talk about the factions for the time being until SDK answers.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby heuristically_alone » Thu May 03, 2018 2:35 pm UTC

OFFICIAL VOTALS


Sabrar - 1 (Mark_Cangila)
wam - 3 (SDK, Bessie, Sabrar)
SDK - 2 (wam, jimbobmacdoodle)

Not Voting: Vicarin, LaserGuy, Maven89, FreezeBlade, mpolo, plytho, Liri

Please correct me if I have your vote wrong.

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch!

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Vicarin » Thu May 03, 2018 2:37 pm UTC

Yeah, whatever SDK is, he ain't human.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 2:44 pm UTC

No need to wait for Liri now.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby SDK » Thu May 03, 2018 2:45 pm UTC

Ha, damn, did I screw something up? That's a shame. Knew I was taking a risk there. Guess I didn't figure on the human wincon as well as I'd hoped for. :o

... Unless of course I nailed it perfectly and this is you tricking me into revealing my faction, in which case - well played!

So, uh, yeah, hello! I'm an alien. It's true. Reckon I'm lynched for sure (lynching survivor claims Day 1 is good policy), but everything I said before is totally true. I am Mercora, we are a peaceful race. My win condition is explicit that I (and my faction) can win with humans or Garatron.

I slipped a couple times earlier which a couple of you had caught onto ("proper mafia", caught by LaserGuy, is one I remember well). I do not have access to the town wincon, and it showed. Really curious why heury thought it was a good idea to hide it. Likely I could have slimed my way into surviving, but I figured this risky move was better in the long run. Better to set myself up for future if I need to survive to the endgame instead of continuing to look shady as the game goes on.

It's important to note that I do not know my mates, so don't bother asking. All Mercora have a "Mercora Cop" ability to help us find each other each night. Not sure if the Garatron are the same. Wheel of Time theory says they may not know each other either.

So, uh, yeah. Pleasure to meet you! Take me to your leaders? :roll:
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu May 03, 2018 2:50 pm UTC

What are people's thoughts on getting one of the other suspicious individuals to reveal where SDK messed up, say Liri or wam? Or should we save that for later?

Unvote

Need to think about this more, but may well return to lynching SDK.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby SDK » Thu May 03, 2018 2:55 pm UTC

Hey, I guess I can make the standard offer to help the humans as much as possible. Even my Mercora cop can be useful - prevents the Garatron from claiming survivor as long as I'm alive. Unlikely the mafia will decide to kill me, so I can put my mafia skillz to work for you as well. Bit risky for you, I guess, since I'll turn on you if we fail to catch mafia enough, but if we can stay ahead of the curve we can basically treat this as a 10-3 or 9-3 game. Assuming you believe me about being a survivor, of course. *shrug*
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 2:58 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:What are people's thoughts on getting one of the other suspicious individuals to reveal where SDK messed up, say Liri or wam? Or should we save that for later?
I'd like wam to point it out.

For now SDK is the best lynch candidate. I don't think we'll get someone better with a decent level of confidence.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 3:02 pm UTC

I'm happy too but will try and not give too much away if you want me to be more specific let me know.

Only 1.of those factions is no in the town role pm.

Mine however I'm getting the impression has extra information. So I have 3 factions mentioned hence my earlier setup speculation.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 3:03 pm UTC

And yeah survivor claim d1 = lynch to me.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 3:06 pm UTC

wam wrote:I'm happy too but will try and not give too much away if you want me to be more specific let me know.

Only 1.of those factions is no in the town role pm.

Mine however I'm getting the impression has extra information. So I have 3 factions mentioned hence my earlier setup speculation.
Hmm, is this extra information related to your ability?
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 3:15 pm UTC

Yes but saying any more helps scum.

Also various people asked about my meta read on Bessie. I noticed when playing as her teammate in stellaris that she was less aggressive than normal. Having glanced back through other town Bessie games this seems to be a tell.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 3:29 pm UTC

wam wrote:Yes but saying any more helps scum.
Of course it is...

FoS wam

If SDK is telling the truth (and I don't feel like it's a jester move) wam is my best bet to be Garatron (proper mafia)

I'm fine with lynching either of them. I think I slightly prefer SDK over wam (confirmed alien over likely mafia).
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu May 03, 2018 3:38 pm UTC

Yeah, I'm inclined to believe that SDK is in one of the two factions mentioned. I think I know which way I lean on this, but am reluctant to disclose which just yet, because I think we can use this information provision approach to "clear" more people (now that we know that there is at least one faction without the town role PM). I reckon we've got two or three more pieces of info at least that could be usefully used this way. So, I'm tempted to ask wam to reveal which of SDK's two factions is the one not in the town role PM. Thoughts on this? We can then get others (e.g. Liri) to give more info later.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 3:40 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
wam wrote:Yes but saying any more helps scum.
Of course it is...

FoS wam

If SDK is telling the truth (and I don't feel like it's a jester move) wam is my best bet to be Garatron (proper mafia)



I know you view me as highly suspicious but I don't think that's an unreasonable position. As more details will either Mark me as someone to be removed or a power that doesn't worry scum.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby mpolo » Thu May 03, 2018 3:45 pm UTC

SDK's slip is quite major here. And given the town win-con, we should be very happy to lynch him.

Vote: SDK

If SDK is telling the truth, there may be a certain preference to fighting the other faction "more".

Thoughts on the setup: I have assumed from the beginning that the two alien factions are going to be "different" (I suggested a cult as a possibility, but there may be some other thing going on here.) I made some suggestions on numbers earlier.

There is another aspect of our win-con that has me very much wondering about the exact setup. But alien hunting seems to be a good thing, regardless of type.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 3:51 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Yeah, I'm inclined to believe that SDK is in one of the two factions mentioned. I think I know which way I lean on this, but am reluctant to disclose which just yet, because I think we can use this information provision approach to "clear" more people (now that we know that there is at least one faction without the town role PM). I reckon we've got two or three more pieces of info at least that could be usefully used this way. So, I'm tempted to ask wam to reveal which of SDK's two factions is the one not in the town role PM. Thoughts on this? We can then get others (e.g. Liri) to give more info later.
I kind of feel wam already slipped, so I'd rather ask Liri to point out which faction isn't in the town role PM.


wam wrote:I know you view me as highly suspicious but I don't think that's an unreasonable position. As more details will either Mark me as someone to be removed or a power that doesn't worry scum.
I understand that, I just think you're lying. I think I pushed you into exactly that position because you made a mistake.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 3:56 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:If SDK is telling the truth, there may be a certain preference to fighting the other faction "more".

Which other faction are you talking about?

mpolo wrote:Thoughts on the setup: I have assumed from the beginning that the two alien factions are going to be "different" (I suggested a cult as a possibility, but there may be some other thing going on here.) I made some suggestions on numbers earlier.
Hmm.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Vicarin » Thu May 03, 2018 4:04 pm UTC

@wam: you say you had 3 factions mentioned; so you knew both of the factions that SDK named existed before he posted that, by name?

Assuming SDK isn't lying, I don't think lynching him is worthwhile right now. Killing Garatron is vastly more important with how the win condition is set up. Forcing him to work with town means more votes on our side, and lynching him doesn't really achieve much.

In fact, I'd suspect anyone pushing hard on SDK after this to be aliens themselves, as they have the biggest stake in killing Mercora.

@SDK: no other info to share?

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 03, 2018 4:10 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:In fact, I'd suspect anyone pushing hard on SDK after this to be aliens themselves, as they have the biggest stake in killing Mercora.
Assuming SDK is telling the truth (something that Vicarin seems to take for granted) the above is simply can't be true as Gararon is interested in killing humans first as Survivors can side with them.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu May 03, 2018 4:15 pm UTC

wam wrote:I'm happy too but will try and not give too much away if you want me to be more specific let me know.

Only 1.of those factions is no in the town role pm.

Mine however I'm getting the impression has extra information. So I have 3 factions mentioned hence my earlier setup speculation.


Well that was easy.

Vote: wam

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 4:18 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Vicarin wrote:In fact, I'd suspect anyone pushing hard on SDK after this to be aliens themselves, as they have the biggest stake in killing Mercora.
Assuming SDK is telling the truth (something that Vicarin seems to take for granted) the above is simply can't be true as Gararon is interested in killing humans first as Survivors can side with them.
Vicarin isn't taking it for granted. He's started by saying "assuming SDK isn't lying".

But yeah, I'm all in favor of lynching garatron over mercora at equal levels of confidence. But when we have a confirmed alien over possible mafia I'm not that clear.

Anyway, lynch pool is now:

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Sabrar » Thu May 03, 2018 4:21 pm UTC

Vicarin is advocating not killing SDK solely based on info he provided.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu May 03, 2018 4:22 pm UTC

It's funny, I was actually thinking of asking one of the alien factions to claim so that we could open dialogue, and there it is.

I agree with Vic that lynching SDK is not particularly productive for Town at this point in time. We are probably better off blocing with one faction since it vastly narrows our lynch pool.

I think it is likely that wam is Garatron. I suspect that the undisclosed faction is probably symmetric with SDK's in terms of the information it has available to it.

@plytho: Why isn't Sabrar in the lynch pool? He's basically confirmed alien at this point as well.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu May 03, 2018 4:25 pm UTC

mpolo is alien too, obviously.

I think this setup is kind of broken :?

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 4:26 pm UTC

That laser vote has given me a theory. There is no town win condition. I.e there is a town faction we don't all have the same wincon.

As laser both plytho and jimbob didn't have issue with that element of it.

Right so given I'm at l-3 and there's possible vote altering mechanics I'm going to claim.

I'm the human exnophobe. I win when only the humans are left. I have a vig kill but to use it I mist correctly name the species of the target. Hence me knowing all three and the slips as I thought all humans would have only humans left.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 4:27 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:@plytho: Why isn't Sabrar in the lynch pool? He's basically confirmed alien at this point as well.
Lynch pool is based on current events and recent slips. I haven't gone back to earlier content to check it with new information.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu May 03, 2018 4:29 pm UTC

So that's an SK claim.

heuristically_alone wrote:Humans are the town faction.
All players within a faction have the same wincon text.
Faction win conditions purposely left out of the Original Post.
Town win condition may have been provided to some other factions, all other factions, or no other factions.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 4:32 pm UTC

Fine yes I'm a human sk knew I shouldn't have posted that when I'm pissed off. But I can win with humans.

So we actually have 5 factions running around.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 4:33 pm UTC

And to be clear my win condition is all aliens are dead. So If town and survivors are left at the end I lose.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 4:35 pm UTC

I'm not really buying it.

We can do SDK tomorrow.

Unvote: SDK

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 4:38 pm UTC

Before I get lynched.

Laser plytho jimbob. Why did your reactions to my post disagree if your all town.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 4:38 pm UTC

Also more than happy to shoot SDK overnight, if you leave me alive.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby bessie » Thu May 03, 2018 4:42 pm UTC

wam wrote:Bessie it was a combined question. Why a vote with no logic and why me?
Hahaha you caught me being passive aggressive by making you ask me the direct question. First was really just game mechanics. With all the vote manipulation talk, I wanted to see if I could move my vote. I had meant to try earlier and forgot, remembered when I was ninja’d and you made a scummy post [re vote manipulation I was pinged earlier when LaserGuy unvoted Sabrar when he was voting for wam I thought something was up]. Second I was finding you scummy and wanted to have a vote on you at some point in the day. I think that others can confirm that I’ve used my vote in the past to indicate my intent, should I not be around the next day. I’ll go into specific reasons for finding you scummy when I do my reads, but I feel there are enough suggestions in my content. Third is that at the time I voted you and Sabrar were my primary scum reads, and if all things are equal I think I would prefer to lynch you for technical reasons. Sabrar drives a lot of content regardless of alignment. If he is scum he will still talk his head off and prod others, I don’t think he has the ability to lurk (just active lurk). wam, I don’t mean to imply that you don’t create and drive content too, you most certainly do as in Stellaris, but, well, my experience in playing with you is that regardless of alignment you tend to start out scummy and appear townier and townier as the game progresses, so I will be less sure of my read on later days, and if I have a solid scum read on you now I should vote for you now. And yes everyone, I acknowledge that is a totally super scummy reason, flame away.

Sabrar wrote:I find it very interesting that no-one brought up Secret Santa wrt freezeblade speculating about me having a vote-activated ability...
I was thinking about pointing out to freezeblade that you’re amazing bad at intentionally trying to get votes, but what would have been the purpose, since pointing it out wasn’t going to change things, if you needed votes to activate an ability I would think L-2 is enough. It would have been just another poke at you and I felt I was trolling you enough already.

wam wrote: bessie - town based on meta
Too bad I’m already late for work... :P

Page 8, SDK’s long awaited post ... Hahahahaha ... Yeah no. Without getting into the specifics of your claim, I feel that there are some nitpicky things in your posts that are suspicious. Like this:
SDK wrote:I slipped a couple times earlier which a couple of you had caught onto ("proper mafia", caught by LaserGuy, is one I remember well)
You have a mind like a steel trap. It’s not like you to make an error about something you claim to remember well.

I’m also suspicious of the real reason for your survivor claim (independent of whether or not it is true) because you know that you will most likely be lynched for it.

Sorry I don’t have time to dig any further into page 8, I already spent longer on this than I expected to this morning, and I really need to leave for work.

Ninja’d by a bunch, WTF?

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby Maven89 » Thu May 03, 2018 5:04 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
It's important to note that I do not know my mates, so don't bother asking. All Mercora have a "Mercora Cop" ability to help us find each other each night. Not sure if the Garatron are the same. Wheel of Time theory says they may not know each other either.


What happens when you find each other?

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby plytho » Thu May 03, 2018 5:09 pm UTC

wam wrote:Before I get lynched.

Laser plytho jimbob. Why did your reactions to my post disagree if your all town.
I don't understand your question.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby wam » Thu May 03, 2018 5:15 pm UTC

Here viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124633&start=280#p4344074

You agree with the claim 1/2 of those is not in the town role pm.

Here viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124633&start=280#p4344089

Jimbob agrees with it

Here
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124633&start=280#p4344104

Vic doesn't seem to disagree

Here viewtopic.php?f=53&t=124633&start=280#p4344109

Laser thinks its damming. If your all town explaij that. And I know no one will believe this but I did think town had different win conditions based on this.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day One)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu May 03, 2018 5:18 pm UTC

I agree that one of the three isn't in the Town role PM. It is this part that was damning:

Mine however I'm getting the impression has extra information. So I have 3 factions mentioned hence my earlier setup speculation.


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