Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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bessie
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:50 am UTC

Picking up where I left off (top of P34).

LaserGuy wrote:This line of reasoning that you and bessie are pushing is baffling to me.
I think you’re misunderstanding my thought process similar to the way Sabrar was misunderstanding my thought process (see the second quote here). I start with the big picture and consider all possibilities, then eliminate, not the other way around (meaning I don’t start with the most likely, then ask what else is out there to broaden my scope).

I had the same thought LaserGuy expressed here.

LaserGuy wrote: I don't need an excuse to discuss his power; all of the pertinent information is already out there. What is interesting is who has been paying attention, given the night results.
Agreed, you don’t need anyone’s permission to discuss Sabrar’s power, and I have been quietly making what I think are the same observations as you (though not necessarily drawing the same conclusions). I’ve been ambiguous so far on purpose because the uncertainty regarding Sabrar’s sanity is beneficial to town. I will post my thoughts on this when I answer BoomFrog’s request for scum team analysis.

[ :lol: …the uncertainty regarding Sabrar’s sanity… :lol: ]

I skimmed through Peaceful Whale’s posts for about the hundredth time trying to find something useful. The two of the reasons I found him scummy was his delay in posting and then lying about it. I still think there’s something to my theory, but I thought that the two most likely reasons he delayed were (1) waiting for somitomi and (2) confusion over BoomDog and I was wrong on both counts so I don’t even know any more. I still think it was a miscalculation to lynch him instead of Madge on D1 because I think it more likely Peaceful Whale would have slipped and revealed his scum partners (then say an experienced player like Madge, were she scum) but no one else sees my point and I’ve already argued this one out. So anyway if there’s something useful I can’t find it.

flicky1991 wrote:I believe I've stated my opinion on her before, but it did seem like she was publically "helping him along" by nudging him on what he was doing wrong, several times in D1. YMMV on whether bessie in particular would play that way as scum, but it certainly seems plausible to me.
Yes, I was publicly helping Peaceful Whale, pointing out what he was doing wrong or what could be doing to make himself a better player in general. I do this all the time. In every game with newbies. And I’ve already addressed this. See here. And here. Hmm, you couldn’t have missed this last one because it was addressed to you. I’ll post it again for your convenience, and because I haven’t been triggered NEARLY ENOUGH today.
bessie wrote:
flicky1991 wrote: and your interactions towards Whale D1 could be you trying not to put all your help for him in scum chat.
This is a sensible speculation in regards to my “coaching” interactions with Peaceful Whale, so I’ll help you out and give you not only my point of view but an example from a past game. Scum!me absolutely would not put all my advice in chat and would put some advice in thread. MasonMe gave Peaceful Whale advice in thread and in chat when I was mason partners with him in Crossover (read the chat log). Ok, next. I want to say that I have *just about* had it with being accused of being scum for trying to help out a newbie. I try to help out newbies whenever I can, read WoT1, Matrix 6 Newbie, WoT2 (though you have to dig through Gojoe for this one), Bin Chicken (mentor), Crossover, Shakespeare III, etc. My willingness to help out newbies is non alignment indicative. I’ve tried to help out newbie town when I was scum (see WoT1). And I’ve had trying to help out a newbie scum, in Shakespeare, when I was town, destroy that game for me, and it was the game that I was looking forward to more than any other game I’ve played on this forum.
[/not sarcasm]


flicky, I understand about the content. This “newbie” game has gotten way out of hand. Your reads list here gives us something to work with, it gives your thoughts and opinions. More is usually nice, but I’m a little suspicious that some of the walls-of-text in this game are not scum hunting but are active lurking.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:That's what confused me. I thought you were talking about a super-scummy player currently still unconfirmed. flicky pointed out that you probably meant BoomFrog, and it clicked, although I didn't bother commenting on the fact after that.
flicky was correct, I was considering using “The Super Scummy One” for BoomFrog on D4 but had to switch to “His Omnipotence” after the non-counterclaim.

BoomFrog wrote: (I am insulted by the fact that I wasn't killed.)
If it makes you feel better, scum!me would have killed you. Scum!me would totally want you dead even without your claim.


Take a look at me I'm a poor puppy
I never did no harm to no one
Boom’s got brains in the bank
I don't have none
When Boom comes down
From his Ivory Tower
He will see how it really must be



Caught up, except for the points I will address in my next post. I’m working on my reads and thoughts and I’ll try to have something tonight, but I need to get up early for work again tomorrow. The entire inspection department is out so I've been swearing at covering some of their work.

Ninja'd by flicky... gotta go find something to throw...

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wam
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby wam » Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:35 am UTC

Suzaku wrote:
wam wrote:Deadline in 3 days
Deadline


jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Huh, just noticed the short deadline. No way am I going to have had a chance to collect my thoughts far enough by then into a full analysis, as it's essentially only one more (filled) day for me.
Suzaku wrote:Deadline in about 2 and a half days.
1. In general, days will last for 7 days. Nights will last for 24 hours assuming we have processed all night actions. Weekends will count as 1 day. Adjustments will be made to accommodate holidays, or for other reasons if the mods deem it necessary.
Why is this Day so short? I'd like to request an extension until Monday, to allow time on the weekend.


Deferred to wam for consideration.


It was set as day seemed to be dragging and I am not around on the weekend. I can put in an extension if no one objects
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:48 am UTC

wam, I would rather not have an extension because then Hari might be gone on his trip before end of day, and I'm hoping to avoid a replacement mid cycle. But I'm open to whatever everyone else wants.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:48 am UTC

I missed the 3 day announcement when it was posted, or I'd likely have objected back then, but bessie does raise a fair point about Hari, so I'll keep my complaints internal, assuming most others are opposed to an extension.

Flicky, your comment doesn't imply a scum tell, since bessie has helped out non-buddies on many previous occasions. How does this information affect your belief on this matter?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:27 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote: I would enjoy hearing everyone's* most plausible scum team theory with explanations.

I’ll start with my thoughts on Sabrar, because my thoughts always go back to Sabrar. :)
bessie wrote:I really hate “would I do this if I were scum” replies because they’re usually done by scum, but I would have totally killed BoomFrog. And why would BoomFrog protect me and not you, or himself? Right now is one of the worst situations for scum. The two strongest players are confirmed town, and the super scummy one is no longer a potential mislynch. I can’t see them withholding. They killed somitomi; they aren’t afraid of being seen.
bessie wrote:Perhaps they targeted you. If they're not afraid of your power, there are still other reasons to kill you. :P

LaserGuy wrote: Neither of these statements is consistent with bessie believing that Sabrar is naive (I think the implication she is trying to make here is that scum!LaserGuy is being read as so scummy that he doesn't care about being caught).
LaserGuy read me completely wrong. I think that there is a good possibility that Sabrar is naïve, and that is why I was ambiguous in my posts. If I was making a meta read :shock: , it would be that Sabrar is too good not to target the NK two nights in a row. Also Sabrar had suggested watching somitomi here. However, reminder: there was no set plan, and Sabrar never claimed a target. So even though LaserGuy is certain, Sabrar’s sanity is (at least to us mortals) unknown, and it would be good play by scum to try to avoid being seen, if they can.

Here’s part of my original response to LaserGuy I had prepared but didn’t post:
Ok, I’ll bite. Perhaps scum is overly cautious and always selects the safest most defensive action possible, and considers even the most improbable scenarios in making their decisions. This would also fit in with why there was no counterclaim. Hmm, totally defensive, not offensive play? Who else has played like this recently? Perhaps….me? Would you like me to link to the Secret Santa scum chat too?

So my thoughts were quite the opposite of what LaserGuy suspected; I think the N3 kill indicated an overly cautious player, not an aggressive one. As indicated, I have recently played scum like that. In Secret Santa we calculated the night kill at least a half a dozen different ways (moody redirects up, moody redirects down, moody withholds, list is the sign up order, list is alphabetical, etc). We never did get to target who we wanted, the target was always the safest play. So cautious scum players would include me and jimbobmacdoodle (note: the safest play on N3 was probably anyone but BoomFrog or MasterOfAll because Sabrar might watch either).

My primary suspect from the start of D4 has been jimbobmacdoodle, because of the non-death of confirmed doctor BoomFrog. I still have suspicions of LaserGuy, but totally unrelated to the night kill.

LaserGuy wrote:Scum is therefore likely among the players that do not believe that Sabrar is naive--both scum, in fact, since if one scum were among the players who thought that did not think this, it's likely that they would have advised their buddy on the optimal play.
I don’t necessarily think this is true, scum can suspect Sabrar is naïve but still use caution. Anyone was a safer target than BoomFrog if they are concerned with staying hidden. I guess I can speculate on why scum selected any specific target, but even if BoomFrog decided to reveal it would be wine anyway because as Sabrar pointed out here, scum!me (or scum anyone) could have withheld with the hope of being cleared.

I’m having trouble fitting this together with the aggressive choice of somitomi on N2, which would be the exact opposite of a cautious player. The players I could see killing somitomi include BoomFrog, LaserGuy, and cemper. I had been thinking that perhaps the contrast between the N2 and N3 kills might be explained if cemper/MasterOfAll was mafia. This idea has also been discussed by jimbob here and BoomFrog here. My next choice for jimbob’s partner would be flicky based on a game read, but that makes the N2 kill more problematic. As to whether or not jimbob and LaserGuy could bus this hard, I don’t recall and I’m too tired to reread The Dark Tower, maybe tomorrow.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: It's clear that Sabrar might be naive, but it isn't guaranteed. I therefore am continuing to play in the hope he might not be, and that scum should continue to be scared of him. Scum can't know for certain either way, since they have no way of knowing for certain who Sabrar's N2 target was, only guessing that it would likely be somitomi. Sabrar could have just as easily targeted somebody else (e.g. bessie or Hari), expecting scum to not go for the risky shot and consequently not gotten any results, hence him saying he had no results to claim. Also, LaserGuy, have you considered the case where scum might be putting on a front about their belief of Sabrar's naivety? I don't think your analysis here is particularly helpful. There are too many unknowns (for example, say there was one player who suspected naivety, and one who didn't want to risk it, you are assuming that the decision would have gone one way, but it might not have done). Not that I believe it makes much difference, but scum!bessie was paranoid about a watcher in Secret Santa, despite there being no evidence for one, so I'd expect it even more from her in a game where one has a 50% chance of being present.
Interesting that jimbob postred this. And I agree with jimbob’s assessment of my Secret Santa play.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: In this context, I think many scum teams might consider taking the risk of the missed kill, because it doesn't really cost them anything - in this situation with a missed kill, town still only have one mislynch remaining, whereas a successful kill removes any chance of investigation results hurting them, and allows them to deal with the other confirmed townie safely the next night. This is especially true where at least one player is particularly cautious (e.g. bessie or flicky might be in this category, whereas I think you'd be more willing to risk being seen, and I have no idea about MoA or Hari).
Also noted, and that jimbob again does not include himself in his list of cautious scum players.

I was trying to tie this together more coherently, but it’s almost 1:00 am and I was hoping to get more than five hours of sleep for a change, but oh well it’s almost weekend. [Prepost edit: damn it it’s like 1:30]

jimbob, I’m sorry, I’m not trying to cut your time short. I normally wouldn’t object to an extension, but I really want to avoid a mid day replacement if possible. MasterOfAll has been gone for two and a half days and he’s already indicated we probably won’t get much from him, which is slowing things down enough.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:32 am UTC

Just finished rereading D1 flicky, and I'm still leaning town for the most part. However, I'm still considering whether the day-chat question is definitively a town slip - I'm leaning towards it being a null tell. Sabrar, you said there were multiple town slips in flicky's early play, if I remember correctly. Was this the only D1 one?

For me, the biggest town slip is his D2 opener. LaserGuy, what do you think about this post?

My main feelings based on D1 flicky are driven by his consistently having PW as scummy, including being the first to vote for him, and his tone when claiming vanilla. There is one significant point potentially for scum!flicky, which I'm still considering, and need to look up something in PW's posts to see if I am remembering things correctly or not.

Ninja'ed by bessie, who should be in bed.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:47 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar, you said there were multiple town slips in flicky's early play, if I remember correctly. Was this the only D1 one?
I didn't say they were in his 'early' play. I think that was the only D1 one.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:35 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar, you said there were multiple town slips in flicky's early play, if I remember correctly. Was this the only D1 one?
I didn't say they were in his 'early' play. I think that was the only D1 one.
Thanks, sorry I thought you had said that.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:48 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Flicky, your comment doesn't imply a scum tell, since bessie has helped out non-buddies on many previous occasions. How does this information affect your belief on this matter?
bessie has already brought this up in-game, so I wasn't making this read while being entirely unaware of this information. But maybe I am pushing it too hard.

I would also prefer to have an extension.

I understand what bessie is saying about whether or not we need a replacement, but I have even less chance of getting anything useful done if we don't have the weekend. Weekend is the best time for me to post, and the last two weekends have both been taken up at least in part by night phases.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:17 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I am reasonably certain on flicky right now. Less so on the buddy, other than it isn't bessie.
Wouldn't scum!flicky imply town!MOA based on D1 attack by cemper?


There's other reasons why I like the cemper/flicky/PW team, but you're right, cemper was tunneling flicky pretty much the entire game before he left and never really had many other strong reads. Doesn't really feel like a buddy play to me. flicky/jimbob seems most likely to me at this point.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:For me, the biggest town slip is his D2 opener. LaserGuy, what do you think about this post?


I never really read this one as a townslip at all. I see the argument that scum would have been discussing somitomi and therefore would have been thinking more about him, but as I suggested all the way back at the start of D1, this is actually a very high risk proposition for scum for a relatively low value PR. I doubt they seriously considered somitomi, especially if they had found a PR crumb from Vicarin.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby MasterOfAll » Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:27 pm UTC

I am at work so don't have time to post anything substantial right now.

But I wanted to say that I am still alive and feeling much better (I have slept so much the last week+) and so hopefully after work today I will be able to catch up on the D4 happenings and actually contribute.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:38 pm UTC

Just finished skimming through the rest of flicky's posts, and I got a strong town feeling from his D2 play, but don't feel happy about his most recent play with how his suspicions on bessie seem to be dominated by something I would consider a firm null tell from bessie. He seems to be ignoring bessie's attack on PW in the process of this. However, the town slip early D2, his defence of me and LaserGuy for limiting the lynch pool despite not sharing that view and his general townie tone D2, combined with how I felt about him D1, in particular the tone of his vanilla claim, really outweigh all of this, so I continue to be completely happy in calling flicky town.

Next up, cemper.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:37 pm UTC

As much as I'd like to keep things moving along, I kind of feel that we need the extension to give MoA a chance to contribute before end of day.

Not sure what to do about Hari's V/LA. It'd be a shame to have to put in a replacement this late in the game.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:04 pm UTC

I am okay with Hari being absent for five days as long as Hari thinks he can catch up by the end of D5. (and if Hari is scum allow his partner to decide the kill even if his partner is lynched). It's not ideal but it's better then a mod kill.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby wam » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:37 pm UTC

based on responses I will extend the day to Monday.

I don't have a replacement but will ask and then we can make a decision.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:53 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I am okay with Hari being absent for five days as long as Hari thinks he can catch up by the end of D5. (and if Hari is scum allow his partner to decide the kill even if his partner is lynched). It's not ideal but it's better then a mod kill.
I am also okay with this. Would prefer it to a modkill, certainly.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:04 pm UTC

Okay, just finished a light reread of cemper. D1 I felt like his content was overly aggressive, and stretching for reasons to find people, especially bessie and flicky, scummy. Some of this carried over into D2, but I began to get more of a feel for misguided townie. I quite like his late defence of Madge, given her flip. I still think that the town slip feels genuine, especially given the context and subsequent explanation in his thoughts on Sabrar. I will look at MoA's content later when I update my reads list. Overall, I still think it likely that cemper/MoA is town, but I'm less confident in this read than with flicky.

With the extension, I will likely use some of tomorrow to reread bessie, and then later in the weekend will update my reads list and place a vote. One other thing I might do given time is go back over the D2 wagons and see who was viewed as suspicious and who somitomi didn't like, to see if either of those give a clue about scum's identity.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby MasterOfAll » Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:01 am UTC

Ok, for ease of reading, my Town to Scum list, with my guess at % chance of being scum . . .

Sabrar: 0%
BoomFrog: 0%
bessie: 20%
flicky1991: 30%
Hari Seldon: 40%
LaserGuy: 50%
jimbobmacdoodle: 60%


And, some thoughts on each player . . .

bessie: I have strong town feelings about her. The 20% is mostly because there is always the chance a player is scum but really good at playing a strong town game.

flicky1991: My gut says town. It would be very amusing to me if that D1 late activity moved the lynch from one member of the scum team to another, but I don't think this is the case. The 30% is mostly because cemper thought flicky is scum and I figure I should give some weight to the views of my predecessor.

Hari Seldon: If scum, then pretty risky to be pro-NL on D1. Actually stated when voting for Peacful Whale, "I am putting this here with the hope of NLing. Please really consider this option." Which seems like a silly thing for scum to say, since that would reduce town cred if PW is lynched and is thus revealed as scum. But, overall, I got a less townie feel than on bessie or flicky, and I have 200% of scumminess probability to distribute, so he gets 40%.

LaserGuy: Something in his aggressive playstyle pings me, but I have a hard time figuring out exactly what. So, he gets a cointoss: 50%.

jimbobmacdoodle: I feel like he led the lynch on Madge on D2 knowing it was a bandwagon others would get behind, and this stopped there being any serious consideration of other targets. And I just generally got a scum feel on him from my readthroughs. Still, I am by no means sure of scumminess, so he gets 60%.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:01 pm UTC

@BoomFrog: don't you feel it's time you share your thoughts? That way people can react it before the deadline.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:52 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@BoomFrog: don't you feel it's time you share your thoughts? That way people can react it before the deadline.

Yeah. At this point I'm just being lazy.

I'm fairly sure Bessie is town. Hari it's likely town although the possibility that he is a very competent scum player remains. I think he is most likely partners with Flicky. Due to D1 vote shenanigans.

I'm confident Flicky and MoA are not partners. I'm fairly sure Laser and JimBob are not partners. It seems like Laser and Flicky are not partners from lasers push on him today. That leaves only Laser-MoA as a possible scum team for LaserGuy. A lot of Laser's content has pinged me but I actually like that he is so confused, it's a confusing time. Scum!Boom made everything fall into place and his reaction to that being disproven felt like very natural confusion. Leaning town on LaserGuy.

JimBob is very hard to read. I don't like his positioning as "anything is possible" but it's the JimBob expression of confusion so I'm trying to count it as null. He's been attacked for a lot of bad reasons, basically his play style is easy to twist as non-committal scum. Slight Town lean for this. By PoE I think he is likely scum though.

Flicky had been in the wrong end of every discussion. His reasons for suspecting Bessie are poor, his reasons for clearing LaserGuy are poor (or maybe a missed his justification, need to look back), his lack of suspicion about me at the end of D3 is suspicious. He didn't want to vote me, he just wanted to not vote LaserGuy. If he knew we were both town that makes sense. The lack of scummyness among all players in general means we cleared someone D1 who was scum. I think it's Flicky or MoA and it's probably Flicky. My vote is going here unless someone has something convincing to say.

Cemper did little bit makes one town slip about the night chat and then tunnel hard on Flicky. If Flicky is town then lynch MoA. One of them has to be scum, no other teams make sense.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:47 pm UTC

The only point I disagree with you strongly is the possibility of a {jimbob,LaserGuy} scum-team, which unfortunately would lead us to a loss if we follow your plan. Could you explain it in more detail?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby MasterOfAll » Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:22 pm UTC

Are you all very impressed with my #content? It's pretty #gamechanging, isn't it. /sarcasm

@mods, can you please clarify when the deadline is? (It doesn't seem that there were any objections to extending to the other side of the weekend, and I certainly don't object.)

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:31 pm UTC

wam indicated here deadline would be Monday.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:14 pm UTC

Regarding flicky: here is my take on these three posts:

scum!flicky knows somitomi is confirmed Town so the first post is a complete fake. He expects someone to point that fact out so he can react with the third post and hopefully earn townie points. He doesn't expect that someone points out something else entirely. Still, he reacts to my post almost immediately and provides an explanation that does not look out of place. To me this points towards town!flicky, I think scum!flicky would have deliberated more on how to reply to me.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:31 pm UTC

I didn't realise it was so long since I posted!

LaserGuy wrote:flicky/jimbob seems most likely to me at this point.
What's your opinion on my voting pattern yesterday and today, on that basis? I was on jimbob yesterday until BoomFrog's claim, and am currently voting jimbob today.
BoomFrog wrote:If Flicky is town then lynch MoA.
I still think MoA is probably townie. If I get lynched and therefore get proven to be town, please don't rely too much on this.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:29 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Regarding flicky: here is my take on these three posts.

I think this sincerely shows that Flicky forgot about Somi's claim. Which means scum didn't talk about it if Flicky is scum. But PW seems like he found Vicarin's breadcrumb mid D1, which means scum probably mostly wanted to kill Vicarin and only considered holding back because of the possible link to PW for finding the crumb. Since PW got lynched the NK target was probably a very simple decision. So I doubt scum talked much about Somi's either way.

This does show a pattern of Flicky not paying careful attention to the game. Which seems scummy to me.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:20 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@bessie/BoomFrog - did scum!cemper ever show indication of gambits involving asking mods fake questions in order to look better with a future plan?
I was just reminded of this question I asked bessie and BoomFrog, when I saw bessie's response saying she doesn't remember (that's fine - it was quite a while ago). Since BoomFrog was in full-on barking mode at that point, I don't think he ever responded.

@BoomFrog, would you mind answering the above question, if you can remember. It's interesting because I asked this question regarding cemper's D1 question regarding sanities, but if he has shown this tendency in the past, this would be a strong point against treating the D2 confusion about day/night chat as alignment indicative, and removes one of the major reasons I have him as townie. Also, scum!cemper or a buddy might have seen my comment and actually gone ahead with it. Not really convincing myself with this reasoning though.

Rereading bessie (in much more detail than cemper or flicky, due to now having plenty of time), and I see some interesting things. Firstly, and I think I've said this before, there's quite a bit of fluff in her posts D1. It's not at the exclusion of other content though, but it does make it seem like she's posting more than she actually is. That being said, I don't think it's actually more than I usually see from her, but I'm not certain.

Another thing that stood out to me early on was her vote on somitomi. The stated reasons for it are not good:
bessie wrote:I’ve called people scummy for auto slapping a town label on me, and you can expect the same from me if you try to use my townie meta coupled with one successful game as mafia to slap a suspicious label on me. If you’re suspicious of me, fine, vote for me, but you better back it up with some analysis from this game.
I agree with the principle of what she's saying in general terms, but somitomi actually states that he believes she is town, just has doubts due to recent experience. That's not suspicious, that's just having healthy doubts about someone who he knows can look townie despite being scum. If he'd starting pushing it, that would be a different matter, but the only other apparent evidence of this line of thought was what I interpreted as a joke, saying "TRUST NO-ONE". Other issues with somitomi's content are fine, but maybe a little stretched (e.g. sleepgate-related comments), but aren't the overriding reason, just one reason, as indicated by the fact that in her subsequent post-by-post breakdown of somitomi's content rehighlighting some things. I find it particularly interesting that whilst it's true, somitomi did repeat the joke, it was hardly the sole thing he talked about, or even a significant minority of his content. In another player, I'd read this as pretty strongly scummy, but from bessie, who is at least sensitive about her townie meta, and is known for tunnelling hard, I struggle to decide if it's indicative of scum!bessie.

Also, I don't feel like bessie pushed PW anywhere near as much as I remember her doing so. Sure, she found sleepgate suspicious, and apparently the fact that he was copying her, but it's not as aggressive as I remember her being about it. The fact that she ended up going after first somitomi (only unvoting him after his claim), and then Madge (saying she wouldn't trust any claim from her and would still keep her vote there, even if there were a claim close to deadline) don't look good in light of PW's scum flip (and somitomi's and Madge's town flips), considering she apparently had PW labelled as scum for most of the Day. I know she later explained this, as wanting to save obv-scum for later, but this feels really a stretch. Conclusion from this: I don't think I can stand by my main reason for having bessie in the {almost certainly town, but I'm wrong about one of them} group, which implies that there's a good chance she's scum.

One other D1 thing: I noted midway through the day that she wasn't commenting on a number of players at all, and recalled noticing this same thing in Secret Santa. I don't really have the time now, but might later in the weekend, skim some of her other recent games to see how much she interacted with the whole range of players. Especially interesting is that despite this, she still barely said anything about most players through D1, only giving an ordered list at one point, with no reasoning attached (aside from that posted about her existing scum reads).

Not sure what to make of this observation, but bessie is posting a lot of meta reads, consciously aware that she doesn't usually do these kind of reads.

Moving onto D2. Here's bessie's post-hoc justification I mentioned above, for never voting Peaceful Whale:
bessie wrote:My evaluation was that if Peaceful Whale was scum, he would be fairly obvious, so if there is another fairly strong candidate, it would make sense to leave the obvious candidate for later. Also, I don’t think that Peaceful Whale would be as dangerous to leave alive as say, scum!Madge.
This just sounds weird, because she had PW as scum most of D1, implying that she thought he was fairly obvious, not that he would become fairly obvious later. Note the subtle difference there - either 1) she didn't really have much confidence that PW was scum, but thought he might become clearer as the game went on (which doesn't really add up given that he was second-likeliest scum in both her lists), or 2) scum!bessie early D1 felt like he would become obvious as scum, and therefore she needed to distance herself. I admit, I'm probably over-stretching this wording issue, but I'm interested to hear what other people think of this. Her explanation for her vote being on Madge day end is reasonable in and of itself.

Having noted bessie's earlier votes on somitomi and Madge, I now see her with BoomFrog in her scum-group. Another confirmed-townie? Even if you accept that bessie's opinion on PW was genuine, that leaves her wrong in 3 out of her 4 scummiest reads during the course of D1 and D2. Also, she had said basically nothing about BoomFrog up to the point where she posted her updated list. Her midway-through-D1 opinion on him was "wise dog", and given that the list she made labelling that appeared to be ordered, he slipped an awfully long way with basically no comment from her. As pointed out by flicky, bessie's logic on finding LaserGuy and I suspicious for halving the lynch pool, and limiting it to a pool including ourselves seems weirdly thought-out - "It is beneficial to scum to narrow the pool to a pool that doesn’t contain scum" contradicts her own theory, since that was precisely not the case in her theory. Her case on BoomFrog eventually shows up, several posts into the day, and it's okay, although hardly definitively-must-come-from-town.

I'm going to need to leave this re-read here, part way into D2, since I need to get to bed, given an early start tomorrow. As I'm sure is clear, I'm not feeling happy about bessie's D1 and early D2 content. However, I'm concerned that I may be unintentionally tunnelling, so a break might help me recalibrate and get a more balanced view, if I'm out-of-line.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby wam » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:38 pm UTC

on phone so can't do a count down but confirming deadline is 7pm utc on monday

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:[b]I am okay with Hari being absent for five days as long as Hari thinks he can catch up by the end of D5. (and if Hari is scum allow his partner to decide the kill even if his partner is lynched). It's not ideal but it's better then a mod kill.
I am also okay with this. Would prefer it to a modkill, certainly.
[/b]

As I don't have any more replacements we will go with this plan.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Suzaku » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:28 am UTC

Current Votals:

jimbobmacdoodle - 3 (Hari Seldon, Sabrar, flicky1991)
flicky1991 - 1 (LaserGuy)

Not voting: bessie, BoomFrog, jimbobmacdoodle, MasterOfAll

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
Deadline in about two days and 18 hours.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:15 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@bessie/BoomFrog - did scum!cemper ever show indication of gambits involving asking mods fake questions in order to look better with a future plan?
I have very little recollection of Cemper's play years ago. I'd say from my lack of memory that he wasn't a notorious player for being tricky or anything like that.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:11 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:But PW seems like he found Vicarin's breadcrumb mid D1, which means scum probably mostly wanted to kill Vicarin and only considered holding back because of the possible link to PW for finding the crumb. Since PW got lynched the NK target was probably a very simple decision. So I doubt scum talked much about Somi's either way.
This is too much hypothesis for my liking.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:13 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:I didn't realise it was so long since I posted!

LaserGuy wrote:flicky/jimbob seems most likely to me at this point.
What's your opinion on my voting pattern yesterday and today, on that basis? I was on jimbob yesterday until BoomFrog's claim, and am currently voting jimbob today.
BoomFrog wrote:If Flicky is town then lynch MoA.

I still think MoA is probably townie. If I get lynched and therefore get proven to be town, please don't rely too much on this.


Well, everyone is on jimbob today. If he's scum, his buddy is bussing him, so I'm not putting much stock in any of the votes today. At the time of your vote in D3, jimbob was relatively low risk wagon... I had at least four people either voting for me or indicating that they were going to.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:38 am UTC

Sorry for my absence last night. So, is anyone talking about me me me?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Firstly, and I think I've said this before, there's quite a bit of fluff in her posts D1. It's not at the exclusion of other content though, but it does make it seem like she's posting more than she actually is. That being said, I don't think it's actually more than I usually see from her, but I'm not certain.
I’ll challenge this. There is very little fluff in my D1 content. You’re either making an accusation that you hope everyone is too worn down by the content overload to go back and verify, or you are not reading my posts carefully.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Another thing that stood out to me early on was her vote on somitomi. The stated reasons for it are not good:
bessie wrote:I’ve called people scummy for auto slapping a town label on me, and you can expect the same from me if you try to use my townie meta coupled with one successful game as mafia to slap a suspicious label on me. If you’re suspicious of me, fine, vote for me, but you better back it up with some analysis from this game.
I agree with the principle of what she's saying in general terms, but somitomi actually states that he believes she is town, just has doubts due to recent experience. That's not suspicious, that's just having healthy doubts about someone who he knows can look townie despite being scum. If he'd starting pushing it, that would be a different matter, but the only other apparent evidence of this line of thought was what I interpreted as a joke, saying "TRUST NO-ONE".
Disagree. I interpreted this as scum testing the waters for a reverse-meta read based on Secret Santa. This was a legitimate read, and I backed it up with analysis. See this post:
bessie wrote:The same applies to your jokes about my meta/Secret Santa game. This is post #13, so, excluding your confirmation post, Post #9 which was fixing quote tags, and this post, you have “joked” about my meta in 3/10 posts. This is not joking, this is a subtle attempt to keep reminding everyone of the previous game (see also Post #3).


jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Other issues with somitomi's content are fine, but maybe a little stretched (e.g. sleepgate-related comments),
Disagree. This too was a legitimate read, and I backed it up with analysis. See this post and this post. I did a complete timeline and analysis of Peaceful Whale’s and somitomi’s activity from the time Suzaku announced the game was going to begin until PW’s and somitomi’s first content posts suspiciously close together (approx 26 hrs total elapsed time). Peaceful Whale didn’t confirm and claimed he didn’t post because he went to bed at 4:00 in the afternoon, he later admitted this was a lie. somitomi continued to “misunderstand” the importance of the timing, even though it was implicitly and explicitly pointed out by me.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I find it particularly interesting that whilst it's true, somitomi did repeat the joke, it was hardly the sole thing he talked about, or even a significant minority of his content.
Um ok, I guess poking at my meta in 3/10 posts isn’t excessive at all. So, what is the cutoff as to when someone is making a harmless joke, and it becomes testing the water to throw out some suspicion? Is a third enough? Or does it need to be in half their posts? How many times did somitomi have to say “hey bessie is townie but you know she was really good scum in Secret Santa so nuff said” for it to be legitimately suspicious? And while we’re at it, just to be completely clear that I am following the correct procedure, how many times does someone have to say “well you know bessie says she helps newbies but Peaceful Whale was scum so nuff said” before I can consider it suspicious?

And, while we’re on the subject of Peaceful Whale….
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Also, I don't feel like bessie pushed PW anywhere near as much as I remember her doing so.
As much as I’d like to tell you, and flicky, and LaserGuy (no he finally dropped it) to go fly a kite over this, I acknowledge that you have a legitimate right to bring this up. But I feel that I have no further defense, either you understand what I was trying to do, or you legitimately don't, or you're scum and you are going to use this against me. Unfortunately, in trying to articulate a response for you, I did some more self-analysis, which is never a good thing.

So in my brooding, as this keeps coming up in games, I see my options for the future as follows:

1. Don’t be such a nice person. Lynch newbies that are looking scummy, even if it is obvious they are having trouble and clearly need some advice. Lynch early and often. Don’t offer help because if they’re scum their shit will stick to me. If they’re town shit finds its way and sticks to me anyway, it’s just not worth it. I spend a lot of my limited game time on D1 trying to help these people. I spend the rest of the game defending my actions. So screw them.

2. Continue doing as I do. We need new players or eventually Madge and I are going to be sitting here all by ourselves. And new players keep the game interesting. And I usually like them. And I like helping those that want to learn to play, or just improve their game. I want to improve my game. I ask questions in game or in chat or in Gojoe or by pm of more experienced players all the time, and I appreciate their responses. In my extremely brief stint as a physics teacher I would tell my students that there was no such thing as a dumb question (I’ve also done tech support so I know this isn’t quite true) and I pretty much live my life by xkcd #1053. So I try to make this game a positive experience for everyone and I continue to be hopeful whenever I see a new name (I currently have great hopes for Vicarin), even though I’m often disappointed (I was really hoping Liri would give this another shot).

bessie wrote:
bessie wrote:Interesting, why do you think that the most important thing to me would be proving that I am right?
BoomFrog wrote: I'm so confused about this issue.
See underlined. It might be clear later.
BoomFrog, let me know if you ever figure this out.

3. Accept that I’m not a (1), I’m a (2), and quit signing up for games when I see new names or certain names that I know I will have issues with on the sign up list. Sometimes there’s a new name (from a new account created the same day) on the sign up list. I still hesitate when I see that because experience tells me I may be needed as a replacement (although as of late Madge usually has the replacement end covered). But although I’m setting myself up for a repeat of Shakespeare, where I wanted so much to play that I wept when I died, I’m always by nature looking for today’s lucky ten thousand, and sometimes the stars do align.

Back to Peaceful Whale. I can say a lot, but it would be more personal than productive and would do nothing to move the game forward. The objective evidence there for all that care to read it deeply. I will say that after the self-deprecation I’ve experienced in this game I will not cry when I die. Feel free to try to remove me from this game by whatever means you have available.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I know she later explained this, as wanting to save obv-scum for later, but this feels really a stretch.
I’ve tried to explain the theory behind this and obviously no one gets it. If you save obvi-scum for MYLO/LYLO, then you have less of a chance for mislynch. I have an odd feeling that I may better be able to discuss this after the game is over if anyone is still interested.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Moving onto D2. Here's bessie's post-hoc justification I mentioned above, for never voting Peaceful Whale:
bessie wrote:My evaluation was that if Peaceful Whale was scum, he would be fairly obvious, so if there is another fairly strong candidate, it would make sense to leave the obvious candidate for later. Also, I don’t think that Peaceful Whale would be as dangerous to leave alive as say, scum!Madge.
This just sounds weird, because she had PW as scum most of D1, implying that she thought he was fairly obvious, not that he would become fairly obvious later. Note the subtle difference there - either 1) she didn't really have much confidence that PW was scum, but thought he might become clearer as the game went on (which doesn't really add up given that he was second-likeliest scum in both her lists), or 2) scum!bessie early D1 felt like he would become obvious as scum, and therefore she needed to distance herself.
Interesting how I also discussed this at the top of this very page.
bessie wrote:I still think it was a miscalculation to lynch him instead of Madge on D1 because I think it more likely Peaceful Whale would have slipped and revealed his scum partners (then say an experienced player like Madge, were she scum) but no one else sees my point and I’ve already argued this one out. So anyway if there’s something useful I can’t find it.


jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Also, she had said basically nothing about BoomFrog up to the point where she posted her updated list.
The exact moment I turned on BoomFrog and the reason why has been extremely well documented by me probably a half a dozen times. At least. You should have seen the reasons as part of your quite extensive reread of me. Or are you only interested in building a scum case?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: As pointed out by flicky, bessie's logic on finding LaserGuy and I suspicious for halving the lynch pool, and limiting it to a pool including ourselves seems weirdly thought-out - "It is beneficial to scum to narrow the pool to a pool that doesn’t contain scum" contradicts her own theory, since that was precisely not the case in her theory.
My case on this is also extensively well documented, and I’m sure you saw this too. You almost immediately found a reason to eliminate LaserGuy from your lynch pool; LaserGuy put you last (of 4) in his lynch order.

BoomFrog wrote:Her case on BoomFrog eventually shows up, several posts into the day, and it's okay, although hardly definitively-must-come-from-town.
Ummm, are you seriously accusing me of being TOO EASY on BoomFrog?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm going to need to leave this re-read here, part way into D2, since I need to get to bed, given an early start tomorrow. As I'm sure is clear, I'm not feeling happy about bessie's D1 and early D2 content.
I’m looking forward to refuting you.

Ninja'd by LaserGuy. But that's more than two hours on jimbob already. The rest of you will have to wait your turn.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:39 am UTC

Yes, we should be looking for interactions between scum mainly D1 and D2 (and maybe early D3). After that everything will be filled with wine.

Ninja'd by bessie.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:15 am UTC

bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Firstly, and I think I've said this before, there's quite a bit of fluff in her posts D1. It's not at the exclusion of other content though, but it does make it seem like she's posting more than she actually is. That being said, I don't think it's actually more than I usually see from her, but I'm not certain.
I’ll challenge this. There is very little fluff in my D1 content.
I haven't re-read yet but I remember saying a similar thing about your D1 content early on.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:49 pm UTC

bessie wrote:BoomFrog, let me know if you ever figure this out.

Ahh, yeah, I hadn't considered it from that angle. Obvious in retrospect. We can talk about the "saving obvi-scum for later" thing after game. I agree it would only clutter this game and is a discussion best had sober.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:58 pm UTC

Found a little time to finally reread cemper. Overall I like their content and tone, plus I think I have spotted another town-slip (seems like we're full of them in this game...)

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:02 pm UTC

Just flicked through again, bessie on Whale D1 wasn't as bad as I remembered. Going to look through the rest of bessie now and see if I still agree with putting her in my scum pile. Probably should re-read Hari too, since if bessie is town then I might need to reconsider the Hari/jimbob pairing, which I dismissed before due to their reads on each other.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:13 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:Just flicked through again, bessie on Whale D1 wasn't as bad as I remembered. Going to look through the rest of bessie now and see if I still agree with putting her in my scum pile.
For the love of sanity please do not analyse Bessie's treatment of PW D1. It was townie Bessie behavior. At worst it was null but it is certainly not scummy. Find something else to analyse.

Probably should re-read Hari too, since if bessie is town then I might need to reconsider the Hari/jimbob pairing, which I dismissed before due to their reads on each other.
You claim you are struggling so hard to find a second scum but yet you don't reconsider LaserGuy. Why is that?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:24 pm UTC

bessie, please don't take my analysis of your attack (or relative lack thereof) as in any way influenced by you helping out PW. I wholehearetedly encourage you in helping newbies, or even experienced players, if you feel like it. I didn't do a "bessie attacked him here, here, and here, but offered advice here, and here" to come up with a "bessie didn't attack PW as much as I remember", it was more a case of my general feeling prior to the reread was that you spent a lot of time attacking PW (I felt also spread throughout the day), whereas most of what I remember was actually attacking somitomi, and later Madge, for their arguments over sleepgate, and very little directly attacking PW.

Having just skim re-read your early posts, I take back the bit about fluff, sorry. I wrote that bit of the post, around the point where I got to here in your posts, so I think I was unduly influenced by the fact that that post had a big chunk dedicated to completely irrelevant dog talk. I'm interested to see what flicky concludes though...

On 3/10 posts, my feeling was that it was not unreasonable for somebody stung by it in a previous game to have the idea stuck in their head to be suspicious around you. Keep in mind that it wasn't the only content in those posts, so whilst it might have been something like 3/10 posts, it was probably less than 5% of his content (random number picked out of thin air - I haven't actually counted somitomi's amount of content, but it wasn't dominated by this issue). My feeling on reread was that it wasn't really justified to assume scum!somitomi for expressing these, as a joke, given the way that they were expressed. No, I can't put a specific figure on when that sort of thing becomes a problem, but my point was that it felt like you were putting way too much weight behind it, especially given the fact that he was specifically town-reading you.
bessie wrote:Ummm, are you seriously accusing me of being TOO EASY on BoomFrog?
Nope, not at all. I was saying that it took you a while to present your case for BoomFrog, and that there was nothing wrong with the case, but that the case itself didn't strongly indicate town!bessie, so essentially the case was a null point.

On to finish that reread.
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