Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:07 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Sabrar suggested cemper, which I was happy with, so switched my vote,
Actually you suggested cemper, I was just willing to compromise in them.

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flicky1991
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:01 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote::x
Hari Seldon wrote: I began a read post earlier today and will finish it when I return home.

LaserGuy wrote:I think we're done here if somebody feels like hammering.


:?
I was so sure I wasn't going to be doing anything else myself on D2 that I didn't even notice that.

Opposite viewpoint: town!LaserGuy might have been thinking the same way I was. But he's been more engaged with the thread than I have so I think it's less likely for him to miss that there was content forthcoming.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Suzaku » Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:05 pm UTC


Deadline in about 1.5 hours.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:34 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:But you explained your actions, not mine.

Well your actions were based on my actions because I was putting pressure on you because of the discrepancy I saw.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:41 pm UTC

Madge wrote:But if you spend time talking about my hypothetical scumbuddy I'd love you to try and spend at least 50% as much time talking about who to target when I flip town so that way I can try and engage with the conversation in the moments before someone hammers me.
Interesting that you requested this information and implied that you would be posting your reaction, and then all you had to say it is this:
Madge wrote:Consider me gone until deadline, guys

I appreciate people making "if madge is town" reads, hopefully they'll come in handy sometime?
Note: people that responded to Madge’s request: BoomFrog, bessie, jimbobmacdoodle, somitomi. cemper is already reading Madge as town.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:44 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Well your actions were based on my actions because I was putting pressure on you because of the discrepancy I saw.
Your actions were a minor detail. But it's irrelevant anyway.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby wam » Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:50 pm UTC

Deadline - D2 ends

After much back and forth, you all decide to petition the Sheriffs to lock up Madge, at least overnight while a full investigation is carried out. As you relax in the evening, some of you are thinking of sleep, others of how much coffee they're going to need to stay awake all night again.

End of day votals

Madge - 4 (jimbobmacdoodle, BoomFrog, LaserGuy, Sabrar)
BoomFrog - 1 (bessie, Madge)
flicky1991 - 1 (cemper93)

Not voting: Hari Seldon, flicky1991, somitomi

Madge is lynched her role and alignment will be revealed in the morning.

Deadline 1 am UTC on Sunday Jan 21st.


Suzaku is starting D3, so please make sure you include them on all pm's.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby Suzaku » Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:00 am UTC

That is deadline. Day start will be in about an hour.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Suzaku » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:20 am UTC

"Good morning Randalsburg. This is radio WXKCD and here is the News. Our top story: Although further investigation has revealed that Madge was entirely innocent of any crime more serious than jay walking, it seems that the Sheriff's department has 'lost' the key to the lockup. Sheriff wam could not be reached for comment on this clear miscarriage of justice. We hope that a competent locksmith can be found before her incarceration causes her to miss the next season of 'Survivor'.
"In other news, the body of somitomi was found in a dockside warehouse this morning. He was dressed entirely in black, wearing a balaclava, and it appears he was attempting to stalk someone when he was discovered and shot dead. It is not known for certain whether his death is tied to the recent mob violence, although that would appear to be the most likely explanation.
"And now, over to James for today's weather."


Madge was a member of the Town

somitomi was killed last night.
He was the tracker, a member of the town

D3 starts now. No deadline at this time, but as per D1/D2 one will be posted with 72 hours notice.
With 8 players alive, 5 votes are required to hammer.

If anyone expected a PM from me and has not received it, please PM me ASAP.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:10 am UTC

Vote LaserGuy

I expect Bessie to vote me shortly.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:28 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote: I expect Bessie to vote me shortly.
Darn it BoomFrog, you still don’t read my posts.

bessie wrote:My scum read of you holds regardless of Madge’s flip. If Madge flips town, I will be taking a closer look at LaserGuy on D3. If Madge flips scum you might have me all to yourself.
Madge flipped town. You’re going to have to share me.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:56 am UTC

@BoomFrog: you had LaserGuy as solid town all through D1. You changed your mind very quickly about him at the start of D2. Why?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:15 am UTC

@jimbob: did you guess D1 that Vicarin was the Cop?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:25 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:But only LaserGuy is plausibly buddies with Madge

Suzaku wrote:Madge was a member of the Town

BoomFrog wrote:Vote LaserGuy


Woof?

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Hari Seldon
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:37 am UTC

Interesting!

@Boom: My question wasn't rhetorical. What do you think my motivation was for my approach D2?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:[...] His actions did not line up with his words and lead me to suspect that he was Scum trapped between a PW and a Madge place.
I agree with your points about scum strategy and play here, and I accept that my refusal to vote PW looks suspicious in light of his flip, but I think you've got yourself mixed up. Madge wasn't the alternative wagon to PW, so why was scum!me trapped between a PW and a Madge place, when I could have chosen to vote for flicky? [...]

Madge refused to claim, and there was no wagon on her before the deadline, and I didn't want to risk lynching anybody who hadn't claimed, in case we accidentally lynched a PR, so I didn't see her as a viable alternative. [...]

I refused to switch to PW when his wagon formed, because of the aforementioned, "don't lynch unclaimed people" point. [...]
My thinking was that you did not want to vote your stated Town read either as it would have looked like back tracking in response to PW's wagon. The Madge point is moot now though and I can't think of why Scum Jim wouldn't have joined her wagon. I am curious though why you were OK with me if you didn't want to lynch an unclaimed? You noted that I had not been on for a while, so why did you attempt to peruse that course so close to the deadline, with no hint that I would be online to claim if necessary?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby cemper93 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:47 am UTC

Vote: flicky

My opinion that a scum is between him and Madge hasn't changed.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby Hari Seldon » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:51 am UTC

Cemper, who is your current second Scum? Also, you should do a Town Flicky read list. Or a read list as if Flicky were not in the game.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:01 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:I do think that, now that we're past the PR-claiming discussion, LaserGuy isn't as bad as when I first thought him suspicious, so that makes Peaceful Whale my scummiest read. But I'd still be happy to lynch any of the three that I listed.

In fact...

Unvote: LaserGuy
Vote: Peaceful Whale

If Whale turns up scum then LaserGuy is town, though.
Why?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby cemper93 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:06 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:Cemper, who is your current second Scum?
I'm entirely unsure. I need to re-read the game, which is becoming harder and harder to do. I can make notes regarding town!flicky on the way.

Your defense of flicky is noted, as is the fact that you and flicky were both absent from the vote yesterday.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby Hari Seldon » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:22 am UTC

I must say that pre flip partner reads have been really prevalent this game (most notably by Cemper and Bessie). While I think that it is important to look for potential partner connections, I think it is a mistake to base your readings so strongly on them without an actual flip.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:54 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:If Whale turns up scum then LaserGuy is town, though.
Why?
LaserGuy voted Whale before anyone else did (although he later retracted it). I don't see why he would have tried to start a wagon against a buddy.
cemper93 wrote:you and flicky were both absent from the vote yesterday.
As stated at the time, my vote would have been for Madge, but she was at L-2 so I didn't want to risk allowing early hammer.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:02 am UTC

@cemper: let's try this again.

1. You think BoomFrog is scummy for flip-flopping on flicky.
2. You think I am scummy for flip-flopping on BoomFrog.
3. In the same post you admit you are flip-flopping on me but explain that it's the townie thing to do.
4. You also say that scum doesn't want to be seen flip-flopping.

Please explain how all of this fits together.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:06 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:LaserGuy voted Whale before anyone else did (although he later retracted it). I don't see why he would have tried to start a wagon against a buddy.
Upon a quick re-read LaserGuy voted me, cemper, me again, FoS-d you, voted somitomi, all before voting PW on an entirely PW-like post. He unvoted before anyone else voted PW. That's not starting a wagon, that's just throwing random votes around.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:08 am UTC

I guess I was focusing too much on specific players there, then (i.e. Laser and Whale were my scummiest reads so I noticed Laser's vote on Whale in particular).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby cemper93 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:41 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@cemper: let's try this again.

1. You think BoomFrog is scummy for flip-flopping on flicky.
2. You think I am scummy for flip-flopping on BoomFrog.
3. In the same post you admit you are flip-flopping on me but explain that it's the townie thing to do.
4. You also say that scum doesn't want to be seen flip-flopping.

Please explain how all of this fits together.

Regarding 1 and 2: What pinged me most was the changing of opinions without clear reasons for why these opinions should change (particularly obvious in BoomFrog's case, where I made pretty clear in the post you linked that what pinged me was not the change of opinion, but the lack of reasoning behind it and the evasion of a question I asked about his prior evaluation of flicky).

Regarding 3: I said that I expected people to accuse me of it. In my opinion, there's a difference between flip-flopping when it's just throwing out prior reads and a change of opinion given new information. The prior is scum opportunism, the latter is town reasoning.

Regarding 4: I'm not scum. Therefore, I don't mind reevaluating prior opinions, particularly not if new evidence makes that the prudent thing to do. See point 3.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby cemper93 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:44 am UTC

TBH this was a pretty gross misrepresentation of my arguments. OTOH I suppose I could have stated them more clearly, and anyway you reminded me that I need to take a good look at BoomFrog as well.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:50 am UTC

cemper93 wrote:Regarding 1 and 2: What pinged me most was the changing of opinions without clear reasons for why these opinions should change
So the flip of PW does not count as a clear reason why I found BF townie?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:01 pm UTC

Reread my 4 towniest reads to make sure I should be really focusing on the other 3.
- I'm fairly confident that Hari Seldon and flicky is Town. There is currently no chance I'm voting either.
- I'm quite sure BoomFrog is Town as well. I wouldn't mind seeing his flip so my paranoia could rest but that's a terrible reason to vote someone. Unlikely to happen.
- I think bessie's interaction with PW is townie. I think her interaction with Madge is more likely coming from scum than town but not by a large margin. There are a few specific pieces of content which I think make it very likely she's Town. There were a few items that pinged me but I have to go back and check. Overall I find her to be more likely Town than not.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:23 pm UTC

@LaserGuy: how did jimbob end up on your list here? You argued with him about No Lynch strategies but didn't mention anything else that you found scummy about him.

@jimbob: you mentioned you get hypersensitive about people attacking you. Why haven't you reacted to this?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:14 pm UTC

I wonder why scum would have killed the relative-newbie confirmed town instead of the veteran-player confirmed town?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:24 pm UTC

I think that's mainly related to PR-distribution rather than newbiness vs experience.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:34 pm UTC

As much as I don't like cemper's content, I am simply unable to find a credible scum-buddy for them. I think for now I'm committed to the LaserGuy+jimbob scum-team.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:56 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@BoomFrog: you had LaserGuy as solid town all through D1. You changed your mind very quickly about him at the start of D2. Why?

As I had said, I didn't like his lack of interaction with the D1 lynch. It seemed unLaserGuy of him.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:59 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: I expect Bessie to vote me shortly.
Darn it BoomFrog, you still don’t read my posts.

bessie wrote:My scum read of you holds regardless of Madge’s flip. If Madge flips town, I will be taking a closer look at LaserGuy on D3. If Madge flips scum you might have me all to yourself.
Madge flipped town. You’re going to have to share me.

I can't remember your stated logic because I can't understand it. Why would scum Madge indicate scum Boomfrog? Please don't just go back and quote yourself, I will believe you that you've said your reason before. Just restate things. It's faster for you and easier for me.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:03 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:As I had said, I didn't like his lack of interaction with the D1 lynch. It seemed unLaserGuy of him.
And that was enough to discard all your previous reasons when you found him 85% townie?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:33 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:@Boom: My question wasn't rhetorical. What do you think my motivation was for my approach D2?

I think it is easier to not have to post and just watch people and I expect you still kept private notes. You could be fishing for reactions to your absence but I don't think that is your style.

I want to make sure you are still reading closely. Also, I was impressed by your method D1 and think it could help us catch scum if you kept it up.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:36 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:As I had said, I didn't like his lack of interaction with the D1 lynch. It seemed unLaserGuy of him.
And that was enough to discard all your previous reasons when you found him 85% townie?

Well he and the other four in my lynch pool all lost a lot of townie points for not being on the PW wagon. The above was what distinguished him from the other four.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby cemper93 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:38 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
cemper93 wrote:Regarding 1 and 2: What pinged me most was the changing of opinions without clear reasons for why these opinions should change
So the flip of PW does not count as a clear reason why I found BF townie?

I, in the very post you linked to, wrote:Granted, BF did push PW, but here's an important point: I do not consider everybody who voted for PW yesterday town, and neither should anybody else. The action shortly before the deadline was very frantic, and any of the players who switched their votes to PW so suddenly could be bussing scum. This seems to be particularly true for Sabrar, who would, if I read this game correctly, have yesterday been in the awkward position of choosing to lynch either his partner flicky or his partner PW.

At least read the posts you're quoting. Anyway, this discussion quite clearly leads nowhere, so I'll be off to continue with my reread.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:10 pm UTC

Well, it seems like my reads have been all wrong this game, so far. Interesting to see that scum decided to kill somitomi, who was the obvious target for Sabrar. Perhaps showing a willingness to risk one of themselves getting caught? That would imply that one of them was already under quite some suspicion, as I think otherwise scum would have just gone after the unclaimed players in a hope of hitting the doctor before they claimed.

Speaking of the doctor, I'm wondering whether it's worth them claiming at this point? Next time we mislynch, we will be at M/LYLO, so scum may well decide to counter-claim, if they feel that they look townier than the claimed doctor (or may decide to claim before the doctor), especially if there's still two of them left. The advantage of the doctor claiming is that Sabrar and the doctor could mutually target each other, and if they're both sane, then scum either out themselves or fail to kill, if they try to target one of them. It also reduces the hiding places for scum. Downside is that if Sabrar isn't sane, then the doctor will find themselves wearing a big red t-shirt.

Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: did you guess D1 that Vicarin was the Cop?
No. Why do you ask?
Hari Seldon wrote:I am curious though why you were OK with me if you didn't want to lynch an unclaimed? You noted that I had not been on for a while, so why did you attempt to peruse that course so close to the deadline, with no hint that I would be online to claim if necessary?
I believed that you would appear before deadline. The last I said about preferring you was over 4 hours before deadline, so there was plenty of time for you to post and claim, if others had agreed to voting you.
Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: you mentioned you get hypersensitive about people attacking you. Why haven't you reacted to this?
Firstly, I meant I can sometimes be sensitive. Secondly, I generally don't consider fourth-scummiest an attack on me (that's how I interpreted the linked list), since it usually means that there are three people that player considers more likely to be scum, and if they decide they don't like me, they'll post a more detailed explanation as to why subsequently. Also, the sensitivity is usually related to cases made against me, rather than simply unsubstantiated reads.
Sabrar wrote:As much as I don't like cemper's content, I am simply unable to find a credible scum-buddy for them. I think for now I'm committed to the LaserGuy+jimbob scum-team.
Whilst I accept that there's good reasons to suspect I'm scum, you are wrong, so that means you'll need to re-evaluate your reads on somebody. Why are you so confident that Hari is town?

Pre updated reads, here's a quick recap on where I stand on most people:
Sabrar - confirmed town.
bessie - probably town, due to attacks on PW D1.
cemper - probably town, due to chat slip.
BoomFrog - probably town, due to driving the PW wagon D1. Small chance he's scum iff flicky is scum.
Hari Seldon - unknown, but voted PW instead of flicky, although wanted a No Lynch. This looks very bad if flicky is scum.
flicky - unknown, his VT claim sounded townie, but PoE is starting to indicate that he's likely scum.
LaserGuy - uncomfortable here. One of few players I could still see as a good buddy for PW, but he did point out that slip.

I'm going to do updated reads on people, in particular the bottom 3.
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Image

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:21 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:At least read the posts you're quoting.
I read it, it was in different context and you were inconsistent.


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