Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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BoomFrog
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:32 pm UTC

I would enjoy hearing everyone's* most plausible scum team theory with explanations. Hari and Bessie have permission to post last if they like.

*Besides Sabrar.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:14 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I would enjoy hearing everyone's* most plausible scum team theory with explanations. Hari and Bessie have permission to post last if they like.

*Besides Sabrar.
I need to go through Hari's interactions with everyone some more to decide, as well as reviewing the town slips, and generally rereading stuff. I hope to do that tomorrow evening, but gun-to-head I'd say Hari plus bessie, although I keep flipping to LaserGuy plus MoA.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:33 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Both wagons were Town. Scum had no reason to counterclaim.
Assuming for a moment that you are town, scum still had a reason to counter-claim: to stop BoomFrog being confirmed as town. A counter-claim could very likely have led to the doctor's lynch. Also, scum might have been afraid of a repeat of D1. You being scum would make a counter-claim from your buddy very risky.

LaserGuy wrote:And then the fake doctor would be lynched the next day. This is a bad result for scum compared to the alternative


Leaving town with no mislynches remaining, and no confirmed townies (Sabrar would likely be night killed).


This line of reasoning that you and bessie are pushing is baffling to me. A mislynch last day would have put us at MYLO (assuming the kill had also gone through). Counterclaiming may have forced the mislynch, but it would have also exposed one of the scum members immediately and allowed Town to make connections between them and their buddy. It's not worth the cost of losing a member of the team.

You're right though, actually, even if I were scum this would still be a stupid idea.

jimbob wrote:However, I think it's a stretch calling it a mistake if scum targeted you. I doubt scum would want to target one of the unconfirmeds, as it gives them less space to hide in, and as far as I'm aware, you haven't actually declared that you are naïve, so scum may have changed their minds about the risk of you seeing them, possibly because they have tied themselves to each other too much.


This is very interesting.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:54 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:I thought it was very likely that we were going to come into today with Doc MOA killed.
This is a weird conclusion. Scum killing doc!MoA following a No Lynch would guarantee a lynched scum the next day, whereas there would be at least a contest the next day following a counter-claim. Having trouble deciding whether this statement is significant either way, but it seems an odd conclusion for anyone to draw. That being said, this could only be an outright lie, if coming from scum!Hari, and I'm not sure whether this kind of statement would be something scum would generally make.

Hari Seldon wrote:His postings give me a strong sense of agenda, and I have had the sense since early on that Jim has been justifying his reads rather than coming to them through reasoning. For example, as was point out by Laser, his reasoning for Hari/Laser is discordant. He does not believe that we are both scum, does not think we are scum with anyone else, but is willing to lynch either of us. This gives me the impression that he is justifying, not reasoning.
I've already responded to the example part (and will come back to the follow-up later), but obviously I disagree with the rest of this. I have evidence that I feel gives a strong town evidence for certain players. That implies that some of the remainder must be scum. To determine which, I look for things I find scummy and townie, and rank them accordingly. Yes, I admit that I can sometimes be a bit one-sided in my evaluation, but, at least in this instance, that's because I'm very confident about my earlier evidence.

Hari Seldon wrote:Also, after reevaluating the points I made yesterDay, I do not believe Jim's explanations. It is obvious that he was fishing for a Cemper lynch even though unclaimed, and that he was willing to risk lynching and unclaimed Madge. When Jim voted (or was going to vote) Madge, he claimed in his post that he would likely unvote if Madge did not claim. Voting for her at this time, however, was unreasonable, as Madge had just stated a few posts before that she was going to bed.
Now you're choosing to believe what you want to believe, without thinking things through at all. 1) Why include that bit about Madge in there, if I wasn't going to unvote later without a claim? That's just asking to be called out. 2) Ditto for cemper. I would be lining myself up for the lynch if I failed to unvote cemper, if he didn't claim when he looked likely to be lynched. Yes, I wanted cemper or Madge lynched, because I thought they were scum. Why portray that as suspicious with statements like "obvious that he was fishing..."?

Hari Seldon wrote:I am not certain I see what you are pointing out. What comes to my mind is that on D1 JimBob pushed me for suggesting that we specify a target for Watcher and another PR. His argument was that it allowed Scum to kill freely without fear of being Watched. This shows a contradiction in thought.
This is ignoring the context completely. In one case, we have two unclaimed PRs, whose actions become unhelpful to town, since at this point, scum just want to be able to kill somebody safely. In the other we have two confirmed (or soon to be confirmed) townies. By killing someone outside those two, scum reduce the number of unknown players, and therefore increase the chance that town will successfully find them, and therefore scum would most prefer killing one of the PRs. Once again, you are unreasonably portraying things as suspicious.

Going out for the evening. More responses later.

Ninja'ed by LaserGuy.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:54 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:as far as I'm aware, you haven't actually declared that you are naïve
He may have not declared it, but he implied it in letters so big even I could see them. I find it really hard to believe that neither scum knew that Sabrar was naïve - that's why my mind jumped to BoomFrog self-protecting.


This sounds a lot to me like "I just read LaserGuy's post here and want to validate his read on me".

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:01 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@flicky: it feels to me like you're lurking really hard. Could you please organize your thoughts and provide a read-list?

Sorry, I wasn't around last night. I'll try to put something together.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:24 pm UTC

bessie wrote:LaserGuy, didn’t you notice that I asked for Sabrar and BoomFrog’s opinion about replying to this?


Yes, I responded directly to it.
LaserGuy wrote:Okay.
Vote bessie

You are welcome to keep your own counsel about such things. I would rather find scum.

bessie wrote:I’ll answer this if confirmed town asks me to answer it.
BoomFrog hasn’t been on, but Sabrar completely ignored it (and I’m sure he saw it because Sabrar doesn’t miss anything), so maybe that’s an indication that he didn’t want this discussed? [/quote]

Apparently not.

Your questions to me weren’t objective, they were leading, like you really wanted an excuse to discuss Sabrar’s power, and I didn’t bite.


Oh, my questions were definitely leading. I think it should be obvious from this what information I was fishing for. I don't need an excuse to discuss his power; all of the pertinent information is already out there. What is interesting is who has been paying attention, given the night results.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:25 pm UTC

Vote jimbob

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:31 pm UTC

In case I don't get a big post soon (given my track record), bessie+jimbob looks most likely to me.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:51 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:In my mind I keep coming back to the end of D1.
@jimbob: why did you not vote PW to ensure NL does not happen?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby wam » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:02 pm UTC

Current Votals:

Jimbobmacdoodle - 3 (Hari Seldon, Sabrar, LaserGuy)

Not voting: cemper93 MasterOfAll, bessie, flicky1991, BoomFrog, jimbobmacdoodle

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.

Deadline in 3 days
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:36 pm UTC

So... prior to answering BoomFrog's question, I decided to read through Peaceful Whale again. I came across an interesting pattern I hadn't noticed before. All of his reads are correct:

Peaceful Whale wrote:somitomi, I’m grouping me and Somitori together, we’re both kinda new, and I feel like we’re not going to be big leaders. Towny

Peaceful Whale wrote:Sabrar however has a serious opening post, and following posts, so I’m pretty sure he’s town. I feel like if he was scum he’d joke.

Peaceful Whale wrote:The way he [Sabrar]’s not jumping on boomfrog is to me towny, I’d think scum would have tried pushing for a boomfrog because it’s policy to lynch active lurkers.

Peaceful Whale wrote:moody7277 uh... ie forgotten he’s here, so either town or lurking scum. Probably town

Peaceful Whale wrote:Ok, Boomfrog is being put into town category.

Peaceful Whale wrote:I currently see Somi as townie, and mentally group then in that bucket.

Peaceful Whale wrote:Sabrar read coming up. He’s looking towny

Peaceful Whale wrote:Honestly I really want to place him in town, but as others have pointed out, he’s not our normal Sabrar, at least I feel like that. He’s defiantly town leaning, maybe that will change.

Peaceful Whale wrote:Which he [BoomFrog] has, and as he’s posted he’s moved up into “town category”.

Peaceful Whale wrote:MADGE!!! Leaning town. Very enthusiastic town.


Noting clearly alignment indicative definitive references to players of unknown alignments:

Peaceful Whale wrote:bessie town, duh... let’s see who she tunnels first.

Peaceful Whale wrote:... I’ll look into Bessie later, but she’s in the town section.

Peaceful Whale wrote:I wouldn’t be surprised if LaserGuy and Sabrar is town va town. That’s what it seems like to me

Peaceful Whale wrote:I’ve been copying people like Bessie, she has already pointed out where. I’m sorry Bessie that your happened to be right about me. : cry : I don’t trust myself to be towny, so I try and follow people who I believe are town

Peaceful Whale wrote:Flicky!!! [...]
Other than that, I don’t like his play style, it’s pretty scummy.

Peaceful Whale wrote:Between flicky, Madge, and somi... Flicky is definitely the scummiest, and the most lynchable. I would not mind his lynch.


Some more ambiguous references:
Peaceful Whale wrote:Jimbobmacdoodle, was really good scum, so not trusting him.

Peaceful Whale wrote:Less serious note:
Me, boomfrog, and Bessie. :P
Bessie most of all, just look into her cold eyes

Peaceful Whale wrote:flicky1991: Flicky is an advant Forum Gamer, and he’s acting the most serious I’ve ever seen. Probably town, could be dedicated scum.

Peaceful Whale wrote:Hari Seldon I don’t think I’ve seen a lot of him in this thread. Sadly it appears he’s not boomfrog’s alter ego.

Peaceful Whale wrote:cemper93 well, cemper used to be “noob” in my mind, but now he’s not. On the scumier side, and balanced with boomfrog. The scummier boom is, the townier Cemper is and vice versa. They seem to be butting heads to much to be bussing.

Peaceful Whale wrote:LaserGuy. At first I didn’t like his plan, but now I do. I’m surprised that he’s voting Sabrar. Also surprised Sabrar hasn’t added more to the plan idea. I think it’s something he would do. If he’s scum, most likely scum with Sabrar.

Peaceful Whale wrote:Sabrar’s been butting heads, and I just thought of a LaserGuy+boomfrog+Cemper scum team

Peaceful Whale wrote:I’m working on my “willing to lynch” stuff as I reread people. Right now it’s Cemper, Laserguy, and maybe Somitori. I really want to reread Madge/moody and flicky, as I haven’t seen their scumyness... I should probably pay closer attention to them.

Peaceful Whale wrote:He [flicky]’s got Cemper as his towniest read... this goes against what a lot of other people have thunked. It shows that either: A: he’s scum buddies with him or B: he’s actually think for himself and not snipping stuff from others like I’m infamous for.


From this, I would expect to see Town!bessie and scum!flicky. PW basically didn't interact with jimbob at all except for the throwaway "not trusting him" statement. There isn't really any good reference to Hari at all here, and the references to cemper are very ambiguous. There's only one for me.

So flicky/jimbob/PW?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:49 pm UTC

Or flicky/cemper/PW, maybe.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:53 pm UTC

Vote flicky

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:18 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Sabrar wrote:In my mind I keep coming back to the end of D1.
@jimbob: why did you not vote PW to ensure NL does not happen?
I didn't see the need to, as I was online right up to deadline, but in retrospect, I probably should have. I just couldn't bring myself to seal the lynch on somebody who hadn't claimed, as it went against my principles.

I'm feeling very frustrated/depressed that I'm in line for being mislynched and nothing I say seems to be making any difference. Still, I'll try and spend plenty of time tomorrow evening working on this game, and trying to put some sort of analysis together.

LaserGuy makes an interesting observation about Peaceful Whale's reads. I'll need to think about them some more, and in particular look at those ambiguous ones.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Suzaku » Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:15 am UTC

Current Votals:

jimbobmacdoodle - 2 (Hari Seldon, Sabrar)
flicky1991 - 1 (LaserGuy)

Not voting: bessie, BoomFrog, flicky1991, jimbobmacdoodle, MasterOfAll

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
Deadline in about 2 and a half days.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby bessie » Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:47 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote: @Bessie: I am watching intently from my Ivory Tower.
Sorry I didn’t mean to question your omnipotence; I should have said BoomFrog has not yet posted.

When Boom comes down
From his Ivory Tower
He will see how it really must be
To be like me
To see like me
To feel like me



jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
bessie wrote:and the super scummy one is no longer a potential mislynch
Huh? We don't have any confirmed scum, so everybody is still a potential mislynch.
jimbob, your missteps this game are quite puzzling to me. Who did you think I was referring to?

BoomFrog wrote: I would enjoy hearing everyone's* most plausible scum team theory with explanations. Hari and Bessie have permission to post last if they like.
I can have a post with all my thoughts in about 24 hours. I just got home and I have to work early tomorrow.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:00 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:Also, after reevaluating the points I made yesterDay, I do not believe Jim's explanations. It is obvious that he was fishing for a Cemper lynch even though unclaimed, and that he was willing to risk lynching and unclaimed Madge. When Jim voted (or was going to vote) Madge, he claimed in his post that he would likely unvote if Madge did not claim. Voting for her at this time, however, was unreasonable, as Madge had just stated a few posts before that she was going to bed.
Now you're choosing to believe what you want to believe, without thinking things through at all. 1) Why include that bit about Madge in there, if I wasn't going to unvote later without a claim? That's just asking to be called out. 2) Ditto for cemper. I would be lining myself up for the lynch if I failed to unvote cemper, if he didn't claim when he looked likely to be lynched. Yes, I wanted cemper or Madge lynched, because I thought they were scum. Why portray that as suspicious with statements like "obvious that he was fishing..."?
Jim, why did you ask Bessie D1 what she thought about lynching an unclaimed?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:05 am UTC

Spoiler:
LaserGuy wrote:Vote bessie

LaserGuy wrote:Based on this analysis, I think scum is most likely bessie/MoA, though bessie/jimbob or jimbob/MoA are also possible.

LaserGuy wrote:Vote jimbob

LaserGuy wrote:So flicky/jimbob/PW?

LaserGuy wrote:Or flicky/cemper/PW, maybe.

LaserGuy wrote:Vote flicky

Image

Laser, regarding Bessie's comment about Sabrar's role—my interpretation was that she was intentionally using ambiguous wording since Sabrar had not made it explicit. I agree, however, that it is suspicious that JimBob brought up who they should target. More so for the reason I stated, but I think your reasoning is related. It was apparent that Sabrar was only giving out as much info as necessary. Maintaining uncertainty about his sanity (to anyone beside himself) is optimal. It may be that Scum Jim was attempting to rid of this uncertainty. This would also explain his contradiction in thought. I do not think it explains the No Kill, though. If the logic is that Jim wanted to kill Sabrar, then why direct Doc Boom to target him? I suspect thy Lord Boom has the answer to this.

(Also, for the record, my comment about your display of confidence was not related to Sanity. A vanilla would be confident they weren't seen regardless of sanity.)

@JimBob, the difference in context does not do away with the fundamental contradiction in thinking. It would be the case if Boom and Sabrar were bot players or Newbie players, and thus needed your direction. But otherwise, they should have been able to work out what they needed to do.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:24 am UTC

I came across an interesting pattern I hadn't noticed before. All of his reads are correct:
A number of the posts you categorized as ambiguous were clear-cut statements. He made scum reads of Sabrar and Boom a various times.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:26 pm UTC

Thread is quiet with Boom and Sabrar holding back.

Hari Seldon wrote:
Spoiler:
Image


Don't worry, the chaotic phase has passed. I am reasonably certain on flicky right now. Less so on the buddy, other than it isn't bessie.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:51 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:Jim, why did you ask Bessie D1 what she thought about lynching an unclaimed?
I already answered this once:
On asking bessie about willingness to lynch unclaimed, I'll need to look back at context, but IIRC, I wasn't pushing for lynching of an unclaimed, but trying to push against it, whilst also trying to get a read based on bessie's stance in this area.
bessie had just voted Madge, so I think the context backs up my above comment. I wanted to know why she was voting Madge essentially.

Will respond to other stuff later.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:41 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Thread is quiet with Boom and Sabrar holding back.
Woof.

Cemper is interesting. Master of All has offered basically nothing since subbing in. This makes me feel like he is not very concerned about the state of the game. Cemper was single mindedly pushing for flicky's lynch based on a reasonable reason. But he put little effort into finding Flicky's theoretical partner. He got a lot of townie credit for his town-slip of not understanding day chat, but again, I still feel he could have asked that question in the night, and repeated it in the day for townie points. Besides the town-slip he didn't show very townie behavior or attitude.

flicky1991 wrote:In case I don't get a big post soon (given my track record), bessie+jimbob looks most likely to me.
In case you need a more narrow question to answer: Why are you suspicious of Bessie? What do you make of her D1 attack on PW?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:58 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:In case I don't get a big post soon (given my track record), bessie+jimbob looks most likely to me.
In case you need a more narrow question to answer: Why are you suspicious of Bessie? What do you make of her D1 attack on PW?
I believe I've stated my opinion on her before, but it did seem like she was publically "helping him along" by nudging him on what he was doing wrong, several times in D1. YMMV on whether bessie in particular would play that way as scum, but it certainly seems plausible to me.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:41 pm UTC

flicky is newbie scum.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:53 pm UTC

ignoring me and confirmed town:

TOWN
LaserGuy
MoA
Hari
bessie
jimbob
SCUM

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:53 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Thread is quiet with Boom and Sabrar holding back.
Personally I'm waiting for read-lists from flicky and MOA.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm feeling very frustrated/depressed that I'm in line for being mislynched and nothing I say seems to be making any difference.
This reminds me of the only good read I made in Fridge.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:54 pm UTC

@flicky: I hope you know that's not a read-list.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:00 pm UTC

I didn't say it was. But it's starting to get to the point where this is less like a game and more like a chore. The more content there is, the more daunting the idea of doing any real analysis is.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:07 pm UTC

You already came up with an ordering of how townie or scummy you think everyone is. Just tell us the reasons for those evaluations. You don't need to go back and reread the entire game or index every point to a relevant post; you are already using some criteria or other to evaluate people, just give some explanation of what you're doing.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:36 pm UTC

My problem is I don't feel like I have anything new to say - I've just ordered by everything I've said so far. But as a recap:

LaserGuy is town because his analysis all game has seemed townie, and because he would have had no reason for his early vote on Whale prior to any wagon forming if he were scum.

cemper's analysis of me and Sabrar didn't seem like scum faking it but a genuine (albeit wrong) attempt at analysis. His exchange with somi early on about PRs claiming also seemed townie in the way he did the calculations and changed his mind after being called out.

Hari - I didn't like his strong support of No Lynch but he doesn't seem extremely scummy otherwise. If he's scum then it's with bessie, not jimbob (Hari and jimbob scum-read each other way too often to be buddies).

bessie - Some odd misunderstandings and a lot of interaction D1 that (to me) seemed like she was trying to help PW.

jimbob - has made statements I found weird, like listing every non-confirmed town as his potential scum list (that divide between "one of these two is town" and "one of these three is town" is just weird).

There is a degree of "and also just generally how I feel about them" on every one of these - just based on the actual evidence I'm looking at, it's hard to say that bessie looks strictly less scummy than jimbob, for instance.

If you want a more specific opinion from me on something then please ask.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:52 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:Jim, why did you ask Bessie D1 what she thought about lynching an unclaimed?
I already answered this once:
On asking bessie about willingness to lynch unclaimed, I'll need to look back at context, but IIRC, I wasn't pushing for lynching of an unclaimed, but trying to push against it, whilst also trying to get a read based on bessie's stance in this area.
bessie had just voted Madge, so I think the context backs up my above comment. I wanted to know why she was voting Madge essentially.

Will respond to other stuff later.

That is exactly why I find it suspicious. Bessie had made it apparent that she wanted to lynch Madge. It's very weird that you asked her what she thought right after she had just voted Madge and while you yourself were voting Cemper. That is why I disbelieve your explanation. It is not consistent with the timing and your actions. My suspicion is that you were fishing for a reason (positioning yourself also describes this action, if you do not like the word fishing) to keep your vote where it was.

Bessie herself did not understand why you were asking her at the time:
Spoiler:
bessie wrote:
Madge wrote:@PW: in case you didn't get it, my elaborate accounting of my RL schedule is sarcastic and having a go at people for judging you for not being precise with yours
Why do you keep covering for him?

Vote: Madge

Sabrar wrote:Hi bessie! Who will you tunnel next?

Sigh. Probably Peaceful Whale.


Hmm, or BoomFrog.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:bessie - how do you feel about lynching an unclaimed player?

bessie wrote:I don't understand the question. Is this about Madge?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Madge in particular. Also, would be curious about your feelings on cemper and lynching him (he hasn't claimed yet either).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:41 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:For example, as was point out by Laser, his reasoning for Hari/Laser is discordant. He does not believe that we are both scum, does not think we are scum with anyone else, but is willing to lynch either of us.
This is incorrect. I know that I am wrong with the town read about one of {MoA/flicky/bessie}. I believe that LaserGuy could be buddies with MoA, and I believe that you could be buddies with any of those three. I haven't got a firm feeling which of the two of you is scum, but I'm about 95% certain that I am right on this.

It's pretty clear from my earlier reads that this was what I believed, as I already pointed out late D3.
The reasoning for your conclusion is not at all clear. Please succinctly explain why you think one scum is in one group and the other is in the other group. You have explained why you do not think Laser and I are buddies, but you have not explained why one of us must be scum.
Putting it as succinctly as I can: cemper and flicky have both made town slips that I feel are genuine. If you need me to go back and find them again, I can do so. Bessie attacked Peaceful Whale a lot D1. That gives them all large numbers of town points, although fewer for bessie. I have not seen the same from you or LaserGuy, therefore you two are significantly more likely to be scum. However, my analysis suggests that the two of you are not both scum, as explained earlier. Therefore, by PoE, there must be at least one scum in the other 3. I therefore have contradictory points of evidence. This implies that I am either misreading the town slips, or bessie distanced extremely heavily D1. I do not believe that I am wrong on two of these three, but I cannot prove this logically, as it is a judgement call. Nonetheless, the balance of probabilities in my mind leads to the conclusion stated in the quote.
Hari Seldon wrote:Also JimBob, in the iso analysis you made of me in this post, you came to the conclusion that I was town. During the deadline, however, you tried to lynch me for the exact opposite reasons you came to a Town conclusion in your iso.
Please explain this second sentence. I don't see what opposite reasons you are referring to. My vote switch was driven mostly because of your lack of PW interactions. My points in my read list also highlighted your lack of PW interactions, but these weren't evidence of townieness, nor did I ever claim they were. In fact the opposite - note the statement "Admittedly, Hari did say that he felt scum would try to distance themselves from PW, so maybe that's why he said it - he'd been planning on doing so all along". I couldn't figure out why you'd bus PW ahead of flicky, but that doesn't mean you wouldn't, given the nature of the deadline wagons.
Hari Seldon wrote:Additionally, despite the Town read, you placed me as second to last on your read list in the same post. This is where my feeling that you have been trying to rationalize your stance was rekindled. (I suspected this D1 as well. The point I made here was never addressed). My original interpretation for why you had me so low on your list was that you felt I was simply the most suspicious of your overabundant Town reads. But if that is the case, why is it that me being scum is exclusive from your other Town reads?
I believe my answer to the top quote in this post covers this point. Yes, I had a mild townie feel from your content covered by that reads post, but little evidence to actually back it up. Combine that with my scum read from earlier, and that pushes you to the second-to-last slot behind the player I felt to be particularly scummy. You were distinct from the other town reads because I had little solid evidence to actually label you as town, only vague feelings that could easily have been incorrect, whereas I had (and still have) strong reasons to believe that each other person townier than you on the list is town. I'm not sure which point you are referring to in the quoted link.
LaserGuy wrote:My interest here mostly lies in what people think about Sabrar's power. The progression on Sabrar's D3 claim (here, here, here, here, here) generally supports the conclusion that Sabrar targeted somitomi N2 and did not get a result, implying that Sabrar is naive. In the quote I'm referencing, jimbob appears to have missed this point, though I suppose it's possible that jimbob just wasn't paying close attention at the time, given this. jimbob was involved in that conversation (here and here), so it feels a bit incongruous to me that he would have missed its conclusion.
It's clear that Sabrar might be naive, but it isn't guaranteed. I therefore am continuing to play in the hope he might not be, and that scum should continue to be scared of him. Scum can't know for certain either way, since they have no way of knowing for certain who Sabrar's N2 target was, only guessing that it would likely be somitomi. Sabrar could have just as easily targeted somebody else (e.g. bessie or Hari), expecting scum to not go for the risky shot and consequently not gotten any results, hence him saying he had no results to claim. Also, LaserGuy, have you considered the case where scum might be putting on a front about their belief of Sabrar's naivety? I don't think your analysis here is particularly helpful. There are too many unknowns (for example, say there was one player who suspected naivety, and one who didn't want to risk it, you are assuming that the decision would have gone one way, but it might not have done). Not that I believe it makes much difference, but scum!bessie was paranoid about a watcher in Secret Santa, despite there being no evidence for one, so I'd expect it even more from her in a game where one has a 50% chance of being present.

That's up to the top of page 34. Will continue in a bit.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:23 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Scum can't know for certain either way, since they have no way of knowing for certain who Sabrar's N2 target was, only guessing that it would likely be somitomi. Sabrar could have just as easily targeted somebody else (e.g. bessie or Hari), expecting scum to not go for the risky shot and consequently not gotten any results, hence him saying he had no results to claim.


Yes, I had considered this interpretation. I don't think it significantly changes my feelings on the final question at the bottom of this post. The "why" scum believes Sabrar is naive or not is less important than the "whether".

Also, LaserGuy, have you considered the case where scum might be putting on a front about their belief of Sabrar's naivety?


You had posted about this before I had ever commented on it. The thoughts from flicky and MoA I pruned from other posts that were not directly related to this topic. Hari did not appear to understand the significance of my question to you, and had already expressed some commentary on the subject earlier. Aside from bessie, who claims to know what I was about, I think I'm on pretty safe ground.

For comparison, I find this post to be very suspicious, because it came immediately after my analysis and is written in such a way that feels too self-conscious to be genuine.

I don't think your analysis here is particularly helpful. There are too many unknowns (for example, say there was one player who suspected naivety, and one who didn't want to risk it, you are assuming that the decision would have gone one way, but it might not have done).

Not that I believe it makes much difference, but scum!bessie was paranoid about a watcher in Secret Santa, despite there being no evidence for one, so I'd expect it even more from her in a game where one has a 50% chance of being present.


Yes, but that tells us something about the nature of the scum team. Remember that the alternative is a 50% risk of losing the kill to the doctor. The odds of Sabrar being naive were certainly better than 50% (For simplicity, I'm narrowing the kill pool to Sabrar/BoomFrog... there are some interesting edge cases but I don't think there's any real benefit in discussing them at present). What kind of scum team do you suppose would rather avoid, let's say a 10% chance of being detected, rather than a 50% chance of missing the kill?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:43 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
jimbob wrote:However, I think it's a stretch calling it a mistake if scum targeted you. I doubt scum would want to target one of the unconfirmeds, as it gives them less space to hide in, and as far as I'm aware, you haven't actually declared that you are naïve, so scum may have changed their minds about the risk of you seeing them, possibly because they have tied themselves to each other too much.


This is very interesting.
What is interesting about it to you?
bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
bessie wrote:and the super scummy one is no longer a potential mislynch
Huh? We don't have any confirmed scum, so everybody is still a potential mislynch.
jimbob, your missteps this game are quite puzzling to me. Who did you think I was referring to?
That's what confused me. I thought you were talking about a super-scummy player currently still unconfirmed. flicky pointed out that you probably meant BoomFrog, and it clicked, although I didn't bother commenting on the fact after that.
Hari Seldon wrote:@JimBob, the difference in context does not do away with the fundamental contradiction in thinking. It would be the case if Boom and Sabrar were bot players or Newbie players, and thus needed your direction. But otherwise, they should have been able to work out what they needed to do.
Of course, but it can't hurt to point it out in this instance. I'm not seeing this "fundamental contradiction in thinking".
LaserGuy wrote:flicky is newbie scum.

What makes you say this?
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm feeling very frustrated/depressed that I'm in line for being mislynched and nothing I say seems to be making any difference.
This reminds me of the only good read I made in Fridge.
Ha, fair enough. Not that it's correct (and you can add another game to the list of games where you've misread me), if and when I do flip (or I somehow survive to game end).

flicky, why do you feel that bessie's helping of PW is a scum-tell?
Hari Seldon wrote:That is exactly why I find it suspicious. Bessie had made it apparent that she wanted to lynch Madge. It's very weird that you asked her what she thought right after she had just voted Madge and while you yourself were voting Cemper. That is why I disbelieve your explanation. It is not consistent with the timing and your actions. My suspicion is that you were fishing for a reason (positioning yourself also describes this action, if you do not like the word fishing) to keep your vote where it was.

Bessie herself did not understand why you were asking her at the time:
Apparently I'm having a hard time expressing myself this game: I wanted to know why she wanted to lynch an unclaimed player, in this case Madge. I could see her stated reasons for lynching Madge specifically, but she was unclaimed, and bessie hadn't acknowledged this or shown any indication to care about it, hence my concern. Yes, it appears that bessie didn't initially understand my question, but she answered it afterwards with a reason (your opinion may differ as to whether or not it was a good reason) for lynching unclaimed Madge.
LaserGuy wrote:What kind of scum team do you suppose would rather avoid, let's say a 10% chance of being detected, rather than a 50% chance of missing the kill?
In this context, I think many scum teams might consider taking the risk of the missed kill, because it doesn't really cost them anything - in this situation with a missed kill, town still only have one mislynch remaining, whereas a successful kill removes any chance of investigation results hurting them, and allows them to deal with the other confirmed townie safely the next night. This is especially true where at least one player is particularly cautious (e.g. bessie or flicky might be in this category, whereas I think you'd be more willing to risk being seen, and I have no idea about MoA or Hari).

An interesting alternative thought I just had that might explain the apparent contradiction in scum's willingness to risk being seen is that on N2, cemper was around, whereas by N3, MoA had replaced him. Can anybody with meta experience here suggest whether either is more likely to be more cautious/more risky than the other? Any indication of assertiveness in this would also be interesting (e.g. assuming risky + assertive cemper might be swapped with less risky or less assertive MoA, paired with a cautious team-mate).

And that's my evening gone. I'm out most of tomorrow, with work and other commitments, but will try to do some re-review of the slips on the bus.

Huh, just noticed the short deadline. No way am I going to have had a chance to collect my thoughts far enough by then into a full analysis, as it's essentially only one more (filled) day for me.
Suzaku wrote:Deadline in about 2 and a half days.
1. In general, days will last for 7 days. Nights will last for 24 hours assuming we have processed all night actions. Weekends will count as 1 day. Adjustments will be made to accommodate holidays, or for other reasons if the mods deem it necessary.
Why is this Day so short? I'd like to request an extension until Monday, to allow time on the weekend.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:02 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:flicky is newbie scum.

What makes you say this?


Related to this:
flicky, why do you feel that bessie's helping of PW is a scum-tell?

Newbie scum!LaserGuy had similar ideas in Shakespeare mafia. Not actually why I think flicky is scum, just amusing.

Will answer the other bits later.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:39 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:An interesting alternative thought I just had that might explain the apparent contradiction in scum's willingness to risk being seen is that on N2, cemper was around, whereas by N3, MoA had replaced him. Can anybody with meta experience here suggest whether either is more likely to be more cautious/more risky than the other? Any indication of assertiveness in this would also be interesting (e.g. assuming risky + assertive cemper might be swapped with less risky or less assertive MoA, paired with a cautious team-mate).

Just from interactions this game, I'd say Cemper has strong opinions and is a bit reckless and MoA would completely defer the decision to his partner on his first night in the game. So this fits if their partner is a a cautious but not assertive player, which basically leave Flicky and you. Also, statistically scum had no loss by testing the doctor last Night. As long as I don't get another successful save it will take the same number of miss-lynches for scum to win the game. That means that scum includes a savvy player who isn't afraid of my scum-hunting abilities. (I am insulted by the fact that I wasn't killed.)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Suzaku » Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:03 am UTC

wam wrote:Deadline in 3 days
Deadline


jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Huh, just noticed the short deadline. No way am I going to have had a chance to collect my thoughts far enough by then into a full analysis, as it's essentially only one more (filled) day for me.
Suzaku wrote:Deadline in about 2 and a half days.
1. In general, days will last for 7 days. Nights will last for 24 hours assuming we have processed all night actions. Weekends will count as 1 day. Adjustments will be made to accommodate holidays, or for other reasons if the mods deem it necessary.
Why is this Day so short? I'd like to request an extension until Monday, to allow time on the weekend.


Deferred to wam for consideration.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby Sabrar » Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:19 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I am reasonably certain on flicky right now. Less so on the buddy, other than it isn't bessie.
Wouldn't scum!flicky imply town!MOA based on D1 attack by cemper?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D4

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:46 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:flicky, why do you feel that bessie's helping of PW is a scum-tell?
I felt like she was trying to make sure he didn't mess up too badly. Doing it in public meant that it wouldn't be all that suspicious if/when Whale's play did improve, whereas doing it in scum-chat might make it obvious someone was coaching him.
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