Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:21 am UTC

Unvote
Vote: BoomFrog

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:24 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:If she is Town, I suspect a component of it may be that she is so rarely tunneled that bessie overreacts when it does happen, and does so in a way that I find scummy.
I appreciate the response but that is an incorrect time-line. First you found her scummy and tunneled, only after that could she have overreacted. I know you said it was only a component but it still doesn't really answer my question.


Well, I found her scummy originally because of the interactions between her/PW/somi/Madge. Especially with flips of Madge and somi, her behavior of tunneling PW but actually voting for PW's "buddies" still looks pretty bad to me. I have a number of concerns about her play this game that I don't really feel have been addressed very well. I don't have a townread on her; she's more or less just PoE town because I think the other two are much scummier at this point in time. I just think that it's much more likely that jim/Boom are going to flip scum than she is.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Suzaku » Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:42 am UTC

Current Votals:

LaserGuy - 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)
jimbobmacdoodle - 1 (flicky1991)
BoomFrog - 2 (LaserGuy, Sabrar)
flicky1991 - 1 (BoomFrog)

Not voting: bessie, Hari Seldon, cemper93MasterOfAll

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
Deadline in about 1 day and change.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:14 pm UTC

@Laser: What makes bessie/jimbob unlikely? If I understand your analysis correctly, you're ruling that pairing out based only on D1 voting.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:37 pm UTC

MasterOfAll wrote:I'm leaning towards jimbobmacdoodle and LaserGuy as scummiest, but don't necessarily think they make sense as a scumteam.
Please explain this.

@all: please help me find this stuff. Who besides BoomFrog expressed the idea that {jimbob,LaserGuy} is probably not the scum-team and what was their reasoning?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby bessie » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:16 pm UTC

Sorry Sabrar, I thought I would be home by 11:00 pm last night , I didn’t get home until about 1:00 am. Let me see how far I can get in 20 minutes, then I will be back in about 12 hours.

BoomFrog wrote:Everyone besides LaserGuy has a reason I think they are town. Jim's is one of the weakest because it's only based on his tone and words, where-as most are from voting behavior (Hari, Flicky) or direct conflict with known scum (Bessie) or sincere seeming town slips (Cemper/Master).
Interesting how on D2 my direct conflict with known scum was less important than my failure to end D1 with a vote on him in determining your D2 scum pool. When did you change your mind?
This from D3.
BoomFrog wrote:Well he and the other four in my lynch pool all lost a lot of townie points for not being on the PW wagon.
This from D3.
BoomFrog wrote: Also, actions (voting) are much more definitive then words.

And I’ll acknowledge now my direct conflict with known town (somitomi and Madge) so you don’t need to point it out later when you put me back on your lynch list.

BoomFrog wrote: Having a unanimous consensus for LaserGuy isn't giving us much information.
After seeing how quickly the discussion on D2 went straight to the D1 lynch wagon, and immediately eliminated the players on the wagon from the lynch pool without regard to all their previous D1 content, I don’t really care about your vote analysis, and about being on the “correct” wagon at the end of the day, since until what looks like very recently you considered my content nil in determining my alignment anyway.

Hari, I will come back to this.
Hari Seldon wrote:It is not direct, but I feel that anyone trying to understand me through my postings should have been able to pick up from it that I am not a Newbie. This indicates to me that you either a) have not been really reading into my posts and trying to figure me out or b) you were forcing the inexperience point before Laser called you out on it. Either way, it is scummy.

@Bessie @Sabrar I would like your opinion on this.
I have about five minutes before I need to leave for work. Briefly, it puzzles me, I don’t see any your content could be interpreted as a newbie. Also those of us that have played with you before have not been treating you as a newbie (no time to dig out examples now). I think I called you a “non-newbie” in my first town-scum list. I don’t see why BoomFrog would read your content as newbie, I don’t have time to check his interactions with you, my gut is he’s just fishing for a lynch target.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:36 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@BoomFrog: Hari Seldon + flicky as scum-team means that you are wrong about jimbob and LaserGuy plus you just cleared HS incorrectly. Did your ego suddenly vanish that you would truly vote based on such a possibility?

There is a lot of self doubt going on, yeah. Laser-Jim doesn't make sense and none of the other possibilities for with my preconceptions either. Reconsidering Hari in light of his experience means it's more plausible that he is scum playing well.

Yeah, I should have realized he wasn't new. I could see he is competent and just thought he'd picked up a lot in his several games he read. But in retrospect, yeah it was pretty evident. I'm not sure how this mistake is alignment indicative for me though.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:45 pm UTC

Bessie wrote:gut is he’s just fishing for a lynch target.
If I just wanted a lynch target I could have quietly stayed on LaserGuy. Keep that in mind for later.

Also, I didn't dismiss your D1 content on D2:
BoomFrog wrote:Bessie seems slightly scummy except for how hard she attacked PW. Did she distance hard in Santa?

The answer was no, and from there I've been struggling to find scum because everyone is so townie. As I said Madge-Laser was the only plausible team I could think of. Now it's evident that that was wrong that means at least one if my town reads is wrong.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:47 pm UTC

@Hari: For the first half of D3 who did you think was likely to be lynched?

Who did you think was scummiest?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 26, 2018 5:45 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:@Laser: What makes bessie/jimbob unlikely? If I understand your analysis correctly, you're ruling that pairing out based only on D1 voting.


Primarily, yes, I'm basing my buddy analysis on voting patterns. As I said, I feel like having none of the members of the scum team participating in either the flicky or PW wagons is fairly unlikely; after the somitomi wagon fell through, my sense is that scum would feel obliged to push in another direction... and giving his partner's vulnerability if the PW lynch had gone through, I think jimbob would have probably voted for you to put the lynch out of reach.

There's a few other things I feel also make this pairing unlikely, e.g. I think jimbob would have defended bessie when I pushed her D2, and I don't think jimbob would have tried to narrow the scum pool to the non-voters of the PW wagon if it included both him and his buddy.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:08 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I'm not sure how this mistake is alignment indicative for me though.
Because it indicates that you have not been trying to read me, and thus have not been playing from a Town state of mind.

BoomFrog wrote:@Hari: For the first half of D3 who did you think was likely to be lynched?

Who did you think was scummiest?
Laser. Sabrar's first post and subsequent play indicated that he had a result on Laser and was trying to find ties to him. This became uncertain after his Jim-Boom meta read post.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:17 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I'm not sure how this mistake is alignment indicative for me though.
Because it indicates that you have not been trying to read me, and thus have not been playing from a Town state of mind.
I made a bad assuption and never checked it. As a voter on the PW wagon I did scrutinize you less.

BoomFrog wrote:@Hari: For the first half of D3 who did you think was likely to be lynched?

Who did you think was scummiest?
Laser. Sabrar's first post and subsequent play indicated that he had a result on Laser and was trying to find ties to him. This became uncertain after his Jim-Boom meta read post.

Who did you think Laser's most likely buddy was? Did you find Laser scummy besides Sabrar's possible result?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:18 pm UTC

Boom, I still feel like you are not actually trying to read me. The answer to your question was in one of the responses that you supposedly found "very Townie".

Hari Seldon wrote:Regarding toDay. I disagree with you that I have been hanging back. I feel the puzzle has mostly been put together. I have a strong scum read on Laser and am ready to lynch him when I've gotten the information I've been waiting for from a few players. It is not that I am hanging back, it is more so that, other than Jim and Laser, the players that I've been waiting for information on have been idle (You, Cemper, and Flicky). I'd like to understand your reads better, because they are currently seeming off in reasoning, which I'll get to in the next post. I want to see Cemper do an analysis of the players with the presumption that Flicky is Town. And I would like to see Flicky's reevaluation of the game, as he currently doesn't have any strong Scum reads.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:19 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I'm not sure how this mistake is alignment indicative for me though.
Because it indicates that you have not been trying to read me, and thus have not been playing from a Town state of mind.
I made a bad assuption and never checked it. As a voter on the PW wagon I did scrutinize you less.

BoomFrog wrote:@Hari: For the first half of D3 who did you think was likely to be lynched?

Who did you think was scummiest?
Laser. Sabrar's first post and subsequent play indicated that he had a result on Laser and was trying to find ties to him. This became uncertain after his Jim-Boom meta read post.

Who did you think Laser's most likely buddy was? Did you find Laser scummy besides Sabrar's possible result?

This is also answered in the quote above. Today for me has mostly been about finding Laser's buddy.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:31 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Well, I found her scummy originally because of the interactions between her/PW/somi/Madge. Especially with flips of Madge and somi, her behavior of tunneling PW but actually voting for PW's "buddies" still looks pretty bad to me. I have a number of concerns about her play this game that I don't really feel have been addressed very well. I don't have a townread on her; she's more or less just PoE town because I think the other two are much scummier at this point in time. I just think that it's much more likely that jim/Boom are going to flip scum than she is.
It's unbelievable to me that you have found so much scum that you are PoEing someone as town. I'm finding things quite the opposite where most everyone seems town. It's also bizarre that you don't find Bessie town for her D1 push on PW. Her clear accusations on PW but not voting him directly would be very weird behavior from a scummate as you are attacking a scummate but not getting full credit for it. Her vote on Madge was reasonable as Madge seemed scummy and was more likely to be lynched then PW when bessie left the thread.

Also, I keep coming back to that scum killed Somitomi because they had a member who was likely to be lynched soon anyway and were willing to sacrifice them. If scum were Flicky-Hari they would have killed Sabrar first.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:32 pm UTC

My feelings about Laser (pre Sabrar result) were outlined here. I also agree with the logic that Laser was most likely the one to have done the Night Kill. Although, his confidence here that Sabar did not see him gives me some doubt on that. It is possible though that he simply came to the same interpretation as I did from Sabrar's Boom-Jim meta read post. As it stands, I still think Laser is the best play toDay.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 26, 2018 6:34 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:This is also answered in the quote above. Today for me has mostly been about finding Laser's buddy.

Please answer explicitly because I'm not following. Are you saying you thought I was Laser's buddy at the start of D3? Who are the possibilities that you've considered? What are your thoughts on them now?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:16 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:Although, his confidence here that Sabar did not see him gives me some doubt on that.
Even if he's scum that was the only play he could make and just hope that I was bluffing. If I do have a result there's nothing he can say that would let him survive.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:44 pm UTC

Unofficial Votals:

LaserGuy - 2 (jimbobmacdoodle, BoomFrog)
jimbobmacdoodle - 1 (flicky1991)
BoomFrog - 3 (LaserGuy, Sabrar, bessie)

Not voting: , Hari Seldon, cemper93MasterOfAll

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:53 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:This is also answered in the quote above. Today for me has mostly been about finding Laser's buddy.

Please answer explicitly because I'm not following. Are you saying you thought I was Laser's buddy at the start of D3? Who are the possibilities that you've considered? What are your thoughts on them now?

Also, most important so late in the day who will you vote for? Me or Laser?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:05 pm UTC

@bessie: Who do you expect BoomFrog's partner is? (I think we already know LG and Sabrar's opinions)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:28 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:@bessie: Who do you expect BoomFrog's partner is? (I think we already know LG and Sabrar's opinions)

Who do you think is more likely scum? Me or LaserGuy?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby MasterOfAll » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:08 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
MasterOfAll wrote:I'm leaning towards jimbobmacdoodle and LaserGuy as scummiest, but don't necessarily think they make sense as a scumteam.
Please explain this.

@all: please help me find this stuff. Who besides BoomFrog expressed the idea that {jimbob,LaserGuy} is probably not the scum-team and what was their reasoning?

I don't have a lot of time to go through posts or make detailed comments while I'm at work, but my thinking for why they are unlikely to be a team is because
1) they are 2 of the 4 votes on Madge on D2
2) they were going after each other earlier here on D3

As for why I am leaning towards them as scummy, that is just the general sense I got from my read-through.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:21 pm UTC

@MasterOfAll: thank you, I don't think either reason is indicative enough but that discussion can wait.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:02 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:@bessie: Who do you expect BoomFrog's partner is? (I think we already know LG and Sabrar's opinions)

Who do you think is more likely scum? Me or LaserGuy?
I don't think LaserGuy is scum.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:29 am UTC

Deadline is at 6:00 am my time tomorrow morning, so I'm probably not going to be around to for any last minute vote shenanigans. I'm going to post my final reads now, since by my count there's a very good chance that I'll be lynched and I'd rather not leave you guys without something to work with going into MYLO. I will try to be around for a bit this evening to answer any last minute questions. In the event I am lynched, I would strongly encourage the remaining townies to follow Sabrar's plan and focus on jimbob/BoomFrog as the final lynch candidates.

As noted, I'm vanilla Town. I'm fairly confident that scum is jimbob/BoomFrog, with a small chance that one is Town and bessie is scum.

Sabrar: Town. Unfortunate that he is unable to ever read me properly when he's Town.

flicky: Very likely Town. As noted in my wagon analysis here, the space for scum!flicky at this point is very small... his buddies would have basically had to decide to abandon him when he was wagoned in D1, but in this case I think flicky would have claimed PR and at least got some value out of it. For the most part, I haven't found flicky's content to be particularly compelling, he's been making a better effort D3 and I have liked a lot of the analysis he has done today.

cemper/MoA: Very likely Town. I believe cemper's townslip from earlier in the game was genuine. cemper has also been putting a lot of thoughtful analysis into the game, and had been making a genuine attempt at gamesolving.

Hari: Likely Town. I don't really have much to add from my read of him here. My feeling is that his tunneling on me feels a lot like TvT. Not specifically because he is tunneling per se, but both because nobody seems particularly interested in the point he's making, yet he's pursuing it anyway, but is also obviously trying to be objective about his analysis of other points.

bessie: Not sure. I've discussed bessie at length here and in the accompanying links in that read. With Madge flipping Town, I feel that my concerns about her are warranted... I feel that it's possible that scum!bessie felt that she would need to push PW since that's what Town!bessie typically does, but structured her pushes in such a way that she found another target to ultimately vote for (generally I feel, not just in her case, but in general people in this game are giving too much credit to scum defending their buddies and not enough to scum distancing from their buddies, but be that as it may). I can't rule out that this was a genuine Town push that just misfired though.

On the other hand, as noted earlier, bessie's buddy pool is pretty small, limited to basically Hari/cemper, both of whom I read as Town. I ultimately agree with her read on BoomFrog, especially this.

Ultimately I feel very ambivalent about bessie this game. The most conclusive evidence I have in her favor in that I feel that the D1 wagons don't generally support scum!bessie, so I'm going with that.


jimbob: Scum.

Wagon analysis favors jim/Boom scum team. Discussed below under BoomFrog. I'm noting jimbob's reluctance to lynch an unclaimed player despite being content with lynching either Madge or cemper, or, later PW, when it was unlikely any of these players would show up to claim. Interesting that jimbob considered forcing a No Lynch a more unfavorable outcome than lynching PW, even though PW was both unclaimed and a townread for jimbob. I'm not quite sure that this is necessarily a scum point on jimbob more than it is just weird.

Noting jimbob's inconsistent commentary on BoomFrog in his initial reads. His opening read on BoomFrog is ambivalent, but he puts him as townie in his final groupings. He later says that at last minute he decided to gut read BoomFrog into the townie group, but didn't choose to mention this even though it contradicted his earlier read. Compare to here and here where scum!LaserGuy makes the identical error about my buddy scum!SDK in Dark Tower. Noting jimbob townreads PW in the same post for making mistakes.

jimbob's mod question here looks like fake townslip.

jimbob's case on me here is very strange. jimbob seems insistent that he doesn't believe I felt Madge was a PR and her VT claim looked scummy (noting that other players, e.g. Sabrar/BoomFrog, held this same opinion). Likewise, he seems to be ignoring the point of my D2 FoS on Hari (I wasn't scumreading Hari because his plan was bad; I was scumreading Hari because I felt he admitted he knew I was Town). This seems to be the entirety of his reasons for believing I'm scummy. jimbob later does a buddy analysis on me where he basically rules out everyone as potential buddies for me, except for cemper/MoA who is a strong townread. When called on this, jimbob admits that this reduces the certainty of his read, but hasn't yet followed up on trying to figure out the problem.

I think the point here made by Sabrar about jimbob is very interesting, namely that jimbob completely ignored the fact that I was scumreading him in D1. jimbob is quite defensive about this here, here and as I noted, his tone here is very agitated.

I get scummy vibes from this. I feel that jimbob had basically already settled on me as the lynch target for the day, and has been trying to work backwards from that conclusion rather than actually trying to gamesolve at this point.


BoomFrog: Scum. As discussed earlier, I feel that wagon analysis strongly favors this team. I think that the PW lynch was probably accidental on the part of scum, and that BoomFrog was content to push PW as hard as he felt like because he had added up the potential votes and concluded that the chance of lynching PW was actually fairly low risk and had big potential gains in townie credit down the line.

My early read of BoomFrog had put the "Woof" strategy as likely Town, and PW's flip tended to reinforce that as I didn't feel that scum!BoomFrog would trust PW to react accordingly. Retrospectively, I am less sure that this is the case. One of the things that has stood out to me about PW's content in general this game is that he seemed to be engaged in a lot of obfuscation that I get the feeling was deliberate, and it may simply be that BoomFrog felt that PW's reaction was likely to be random enough that people wouldn't be able to interpret it, especially since BoomFrog would actively impose his own interpretation for us. BoomFrog reads PW as Town for this post, claiming PW is "People who didn't get it but didn't care." Two points about this analysis of PW though: First, BoomFrog notes that PW doesn't include "townie who doesn't care" or "townie messing around", which BoomFrog takes to mean that scum!PW would know that Boom was Town and wouldn't have excluded those possilibities. But we can turn this argument around and note that PW didn't include Town!BoomFrog as a possibility because he knew BoomFrog was scum. The other point to note about this read is that BoomFrog considers one of PW's posts about him, but doesn't consider the other, PW's detailed read of him here. PW does a post-by-post read on BoomFrog and concludes he's Town. This latter post doesn't really fit with BoomFrog's "People who didn't get it but didn't care" categorization. This may be because PW should probably have been read as "People who didn't get it but read me as Town". This is a very scummy place to be, and Town!Boom should have recognized it: Scum!PW, knowing Boom's alignment but not knowing what he was doing, probably would have felt the safest course of action was simply to townread BoomFrog, especially after bessie, Sabrar, jimbob and myself were already reading him as Town by this point. BoomFrog was giving PW unwarranted townie credit here. Note here when later BoomFrog indicates bessie/Sabrar were able to decipher his woofs, but not PW even though PW was clearly able to get something out of it. BoomFrog misses this point when he comes back to this read later. Interesting also that PW's comment here is validating BoomFrog's "didn't know, didn't care, read" rather than pointing out that PW actually did make an effort to work out what BoomFrog was doing.

Note the post where BoomFrog analyses the response to his woofs is the only reference BoomFrog makes to jimbob until 9 minutes before the end of D1.

Noting BoomFrog answering a question for PW here. Contrast to Town!Boom here.

Noting PW's sudden appearance in BoomFrog's bottom five here when Boom was townreading him earlier.

Noting BoomFrog's commentary on this post by Hari. I do not believe that BoomFrog's later claim of reading Hari as inexperienced are credible. In fact, this post isn't really internally consistent either, since his comments about Hari having "the BoomFrog style" would tend to suggest a more experienced player.

Noting Boom's unmotivated townread of jimbob at the start of D2. I've commented on this elsewhere. Later, BoomFrog essentially abandons his plan of only considering people in the pool to include Sabrar, whom he had been reading as 95% town rather than scumread jimbob. Late D2, he speculates upon Madge flipping Town he would look at bessie, me and Hari and later looks at flicky-Hari, but does not consider jimbob in any possible scumteams.

In D3, BoomFrog is reading me , jimbob and Hari as his bottom three (voting me). A few posts later he moves his vote from me to Hari and clears jimbob. BoomFrog does this again here.

So, tl;dr out of this. I think BoomFrog is scum. I feel his post-woof read of PW was fudged to make PW look townie. I feel that his interactions with the D1 wagons were mostly scum looking for a mislynch, and his final push on PW was likely with the expectation of failure given the vote situation, and then subsequently hoping to ride out the townie credit from lynching PW.

BoomFrog's buddy is very likely jimbob. Boom has been persistently given a poorly motivated townread on jimbob despite fairly minimal interactions between the two, and regularly excludes him from his various lynchpools and voting strategies even if it means including people that BoomFrog obstentively finds townier.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:42 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@MasterOfAll: thank you, I don't think either reason is indicative enough but that discussion can wait.

Let me know if you want me to claim.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Suzaku » Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:43 am UTC

Current Votals:

LaserGuy - 2 (jimbobmacdoodle, BoomFrog)
jimbobmacdoodle - 1 (flicky1991)
BoomFrog - 3 (LaserGuy, Sabrar, bessie)

Not voting: Hari Seldon, cemper93MasterOfAll

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
Deadline in just over 13 hours.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jan 27, 2018 1:18 am UTC

Sorry for being AWOL today. I've been in a training meeting all day, and then spending time with my father all evening, and should now be in bed (LaserGuy, this is why I haven't followed up further on the updated read). I will have a bit of time to try to do some analysis, in the morning, but it'll be on the move and whilst sleep- deprived, so I make no promises about the quality of it.

As things stand, I still believe that either Hari or LaserGuy are scum (but not both), and will only vote for one of those two except for a clear scum slip, or to prevent No Lynch (or at worst, my own lynch). Only exception is if I get time to complete a buddy analysis, and only one player can be both players' buddies.

I'm inclined to think that BoomFrog should claim, but I haven't got a good grasp of where people who aren't voting for him stand, so it's probably not worth it if everybody else is reading him as town.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:16 am UTC

Hari will vote Laser, Flicky votes me, MoA votes laser. It's tied 4-4. I might be able to convince Sabrar or Bessie to change but probably not and it's getting too late. I don't think we can get more data from this so I might as well claim now.

Quack quack.
Spoiler:
I'm the doctor.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:02 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote: If she is Town, I suspect a component of it may be that she is so rarely tunneled that bessie overreacts when it does happen, and does so in a way that I find scummy.
When did I overreact to anything? You presented a scum case on me that I thought was neither objective nor accurate, and I refuted your points.

LaserGuy wrote:Well, I found her scummy originally because of the interactions between her/PW/somi/Madge. Especially with flips of Madge and somi, her behavior of tunneling PW but actually voting for PW's "buddies" still looks pretty bad to me.
Hmm, I’m going to note this for now.

Sabrar wrote:@all: please help me find this stuff. Who besides BoomFrog expressed the idea that {jimbob,LaserGuy} is probably not the scum-team and what was their reasoning?
Well, it wasn’t me. I’ve been considering the possibility of a jimbob-LaserGuy pair since this post, supported by this, my initial reaction here. I didn’t focus on it because I was pretty sure about BoomFrog-Madge.

BoomFrog wrote:
Bessie wrote:gut is he’s just fishing for a lynch target.
If I just wanted a lynch target I could have quietly stayed on LaserGuy. Keep that in mind for later.
Noted. You could have sat back and let the wagon roll over LaserGuy, but you didn’t.

LaserGuy wrote:There's a few other things I feel also make this pairing unlikely, e.g. I think jimbob would have defended bessie when I pushed her D2, and I don't think jimbob would have tried to narrow the scum pool to the non-voters of the PW wagon if it included both him and his buddy.
Also noted. You weren’t on that wagon either.

BoomFrog wrote: Let me know if you want me to claim.
Damn it BoomFrog, I was typing up all my reasons (I’m cooking dinner at the same time) why town!you shouldn’t claim, and scum!you would probably claim doctor anyway (if you’re the doctor, we’ll lose the doctor tonight, if you’re scum, you’ll out the doctor and we’ll lose the doctor tonight, if you claim vt you’ll either be lynched anyway or scum has a dwindling pool from which to find the doctor, etc, no need to work on this any longer).

LaserGuy, I’ll come back to your long post.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:05 am UTC

@BoomFrog: you're cutting it extremely close... I don't like that. OTOH I read you as PR D1 but thought you were the Tracker.

REAL DOC NEEDS TO CC ASAP!!!

Can't be flicky or LaserGuy.

bessie wrote:...

Hari Seldon wrote:...

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:...

MasterOfAll wrote:...

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:06 am UTC

@bessie: BoomFrog already claimed Doc. Please confirm/deny.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:07 am UTC

I'm not the doctor.

Back in a bit.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:34 am UTC

Unvote
Vote: LaserGuy


Not promising to be online most of the time but will be able to switch back if necessary.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:12 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@BoomFrog: you're cutting it extremely close...
Bessie said I shouldn't claim, you say I should've claimed earlier. Sounds like just right.

I had two choices, quietly lynch LaserGuy or do this. If I choose the first and LaserGuy is town then I would be CCed by scum tomorrow and I'd be the one lynched over Hari or Flicky or MoA. If LaserGuy is scum then this was a bad move, but we are doing well anyway. I'm hedging my bet in case scum is Flicky-Hari.

If Cemper/MoA is scum we've lost anyway. Pretty sure Bessie is town btw.

If Laser is town lynch Flicky then Hari.
If Laser is scum lynch Flicky.

Good night, and thanks for all the woofs. I won't be in again before deadline.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:35 am UTC

I agree with so much of LaserGuy’s read of BoomFrog in this post. Probably because I’ve made so many of those points before, it’s like reading my own content. Hmm.


Unvote


Unofficial Votals:

LaserGuy - 3 (jimbobmacdoodle, BoomFrog, Sabrar)
jimbobmacdoodle - 1 (flicky1991)
BoomFrog - 1 (LaserGuy)

Not voting: Hari Seldon, MasterOfAll, bessie

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:57 am UTC

Unvote

Okay, I officially have no idea what's going on this game. Hopefully you can learn something useful from my flip.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:12 am UTC

Confirming that I am not the doctor.

Seems to me that the best plan is BoomFrog (or real doctor if there is a counter-claim)/Sabrar mutually targeting each other. Of course, scum know this so *shrug*.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:15 am UTC

There is something very wrong with that statement, and I can't decide what it means that you missed it.


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