Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:31 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Well, it seems like my reads have been all wrong this game, so far.
Yes, quite peculiar.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Speaking of the doctor, I'm wondering whether it's worth them claiming at this point? Next time we mislynch, we will be at M/LYLO, so scum may well decide to counter-claim, if they feel that they look townier than the claimed doctor (or may decide to claim before the doctor), especially if there's still two of them left. The advantage of the doctor claiming is that Sabrar and the doctor could mutually target each other, and if they're both sane, then scum either out themselves or fail to kill, if they try to target one of them. It also reduces the hiding places for scum. Downside is that if Sabrar isn't sane, then the doctor will find themselves wearing a big red t-shirt.
Terrible idea to bring it up this early and if you would have really thought it as meticulously as you do about everything else you'd realize why.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: did you guess D1 that Vicarin was the Cop?
No. Why do you ask?
Wanted to get a read on BoomFrog. It's convoluted.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Why are you so confident that Hari is town?
Why do you think he's not?

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:35 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Well he and the other four in my lynch pool all lost a lot of townie points for not being on the PW wagon. The above was what distinguished him from the other four.
Doesn't really answer my question. Let me rephrase it. Are you looking mainly for town-tells to clear people or scum-slips to catch them out? If you find both in the same player which do you give more importance? Is a single anti-town behavior enough to wipe out large townie points accumulated so far? Is a huge town-tell enough to excuse past scummy behavior?

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:39 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:and if they decide they don't like me, they'll post a more detailed explanation as to why subsequently.
So until the detailed read was provided you were not interested why you were on the list? Didn't you want to find out whether LaserGuy put you there for scummy reasons?

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flicky1991
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:27 pm UTC

I think LaserGuy and cemper are town. Even when I've disagreed with their points (and of course I disagree with cemper on quite a major point), it always seems to come from a townie point of view.

(I'll be really annoyed if Laser turns out scum after all now that I've changed my mind on him...)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:17 pm UTC

LaserGuy (previously leaning town, 4th scummiest):
Spoiler:
Starting from here. Townies: BF woof more likely town than scum. BF could have led lynch on PW, but no evidence. Tunnelling by Hari feels more likely town motivated. Notes PW vote by Hari was in hope of no lynching. Backs down on Madge. Thinks her claim D1 came from town. Doesn't think scum!Madge would defend PW. Meh: doesn't like what flicky's posted, but not different to previous town!flicky. Me - meta puts scum!me as more active. Notes me choosing not to save PW. Felt me asking questions D1 was for sake of asking questions. cemper makes good analyses, seems to be trying to solve game, but vote on bessie seems like scum distancing. Scummy: Sabrar (active lurking, bad case and not followed through, unsupported votes, reading PW as scum, not voting for him, changeable reads) and bessie (resisting voting for PW, despite case).

Lots of brief responses to comments directed at him, plus an explanation of why he didn't explain his accusations (liked BF, cemper, Hari and my comments, but not flicky or bessie). Thinks Sabrar timing slip was weird, but null, rules out Sabrar/cemper team. cemper reaction might be town slip. Votes Madge to force her to claim, also agrees with BF logic re. Madge play. Backs down on Sabrar meta-read, after claim, but goes into more detail following Sabrar's challenge. Asks Hari for Madge read. Looks at Hari's suggested plan, and doesn't like it. FoS Hari for backing down based on LG's argument. Disagrees with BF no-doctor-counter-claim idea. Decides we have to lynch Madge following her VT claim. Challenges cemper on confidence of town bessie. Felt bessie interactions with PW make scum!bessie likely, especially if Madge flips town. Would be helpful if Madge gave final reads before dying. Asks Madge why she isn't voting, and suggests hammering. Thinks Hari is third scum if Madge is mafia, giving outline of case. Confused by BF vote on him at start of D3.
@LaserGuy - why did you vote Madge D2 (the latter time)? What did you find scummy about her?

I'm not feeling great about LaserGuy. Firstly, LaserGuy's vote on Madge appeared to be because he wanted her to claim, but then he maintains that vote after her claim, with no additional explanation. This looks especially weird, given that prior to that, he had a town read on Madge. Secondly, he swung around from Hari being one of his town reads to being Madge's likely scum buddy, based on nothing more than the No Lynch push, and Hari backing down on a suggestion he acknowledged was a bad idea. He's also not said anything yet except "Woof?" D3. Generally, not getting good vibes here.

@LaserGuy - I'd like your updated thoughts on who you think is scum and why.

flicky (no recent update, last was D1 and slightly townie):
Spoiler:
Read cemper's flip-flopping over PR claiming as townie discussing things reasonably. Defends PW over joke-confirmation post. Has LG, PW, Madge as D1 lynch candidates. Points out error in Madge logic re. information when no death occurs. Would consider voting Madge to prevent No Lynch. Madge tending towards scum lean due to gut feeling. Previously had moody tied with somitomi and Hari in scores. Explains his earlier reads list. LG isn't as bad as earlier, PW becomes scummiest read, and switches vote from LG to PW. scum!PW implies town!LG. Claims VT. Points out error by PW in when he's played with him. Cemper townie despite wanting him lynched. D2, proposes Whale/somi/Madge team, forgetting somi claim. Misunderstands my "proposed three to lynch" list.

Believes LaserGuy late-D1 content pretty netural, and PW/LG scum team impossible. Doesn't like bessie's random hostility. Agrees with somitomi's pointing out of cemper incorrectly saying PW read flicky as town. Doesn't consider voters for PW to be auto-town. Discusses with bessie about why scum me/LG would eliminate half the town players automatically, but does accept one of us could be scum. Madge scummiest. Doesn't understand why people dislike people changing their minds. Would vote for Madge except for L-2. Points out town!LG view for thinking everything done. Doesn't see why LG would want to start wagon on buddy. Wonders why inexperienced player killed instead of experienced. Thinks LG and cemper town, despite disagreements.
In addition to the content noted above, I also skimmed flicky's entire D1 content, and I really don't see him being a buddy with PW. There is also one major mistake he made that I'm pretty sure scum wouldn't have made. At the start of D2, he forgot about somitomi's PR claim, and put him down as a possible team with PW and Madge. I'm pretty certain that scum would not have made that mistake, because in their chat, they'd have likely been discussing whether or not to kill PR!somitomi, thus keeping this point in the forefront of flicky's mind. He was wrong on Madge, although so were a number of us, so that's not really a point against.

@flicky - please give an example of how LG's and cemper's points are coming from a townie point of view. Who do you find as likely scum currently?

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Speaking of the doctor, I'm wondering whether it's worth them claiming at this point? Next time we mislynch, we will be at M/LYLO, so scum may well decide to counter-claim, if they feel that they look townier than the claimed doctor (or may decide to claim before the doctor), especially if there's still two of them left. The advantage of the doctor claiming is that Sabrar and the doctor could mutually target each other, and if they're both sane, then scum either out themselves or fail to kill, if they try to target one of them. It also reduces the hiding places for scum. Downside is that if Sabrar isn't sane, then the doctor will find themselves wearing a big red t-shirt.
Terrible idea to bring it up this early and if you would have really thought it as meticulously as you do about everything else you'd realize why.

So even discussing the idea is a bad idea? I think you're again thinking that I think in exactly the same way you do, because I don't see how discussion at this point can be harmful.

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Why are you so confident that Hari is town?
Why do you think he's not?
You didn't answer my question, but I'll answer to humour you anyway: PoE is starting to point to him as a likely candidate.

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:and if they decide they don't like me, they'll post a more detailed explanation as to why subsequently.
So until the detailed read was provided you were not interested why you were on the list? Didn't you want to find out whether LaserGuy put you there for scummy reasons?
What detailed read? And please don't ask loaded questions like that second question. They aren't helpful, and just show that you're starting to tunnel again. I would love to know why everybody does what they do in this game, but I can't ask about everything, even if I notice it all. I focus on what I find suspicious or disagree with. A slight suspicion on me was not unwarranted, in my mind, so hardly a big deal. If, however, he'd converted that to a vote or FoS, or even pushed me further up the list to a serious concern, I'd have expected an explanation. Contrast that to Hari where I completely disagreed with his reasons for his read on me, and so had something to get defensive about.

Going to take a break, and do more reads later. Updated list, based on these two so far:
Sabrar - confirmed town.
BoomFrog - probably town, extreme push on PW seems unlikely from a scum buddy, unless flicky is also scum, which I now doubt.
flicky - probably town, forgetting somitomi claim seems unlikely to come from scum, and seems unlikely to be buddies with PW, after being first to vote for him.
cemper - probably town, slip seems unlikely to be fabricated.
bessie - probably town, due to D1 attacks on PW, but needs to be reviewed, due to lack of options.
Hari Seldon - unknown, flicky not likely being scum makes this less likely, but still here by PoE.
LaserGuy - scum, pending answers, but even then PoE makes this likely.
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bessie
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:23 pm UTC

Reference this post.
BoomFrog wrote:I can't remember your stated logic because I can't understand it. Why would scum Madge indicate scum Boomfrog? Please don't just go back and quote yourself, I will believe you that you've said your reason before. Just restate things. It's faster for you and easier for me.
You misunderstand the intent of the post to which you replied. I find it interesting that your first D3 post consisted of a vote for LaserGuy with no explanation, and a challenge to me to immediately vote for you (hmm, I wonder if you already had a response prepared and I blew it by not adhering to the script). My quote was to remind you that I said I would be taking a closer look at LaserGuy should Madge flip town. And now you are trying to draw my attention away from LaserGuy and back to focusing on you. Why? Especially interesting is the question you asked, “why would scum Madge indicate scum BoomFrog” so you are setting me up to prepare a lengthy response to what is now an irrelevant argument. Why not ask “what are your points independent of BoomFrog-Madge ties”?

As I’ve previously stated, I did have suspicions of you and of Madge independent of the other being scum.
bessie wrote:Also, I am not stuck on “if Madge is scum, BoomFrog must be scum”. I may appear stubborn, but I’m not overly confident that I am always correct about everything, and I’m willing to reevaluate earlier opinions. I just don’t/can’t do it instantaneously. I need to ponder.


I’ve already discussed that my suspicion originated with this post, see here.
BoomFrog wrote: @Sabrar: Do you really need more? I don't.

@Madge: Don't claim anything.
Your quick acceptance of Madge’s claim was suspicious, but not as suspicious to me as your attempt to call out Sabrar for not immediately following you. You also attempted to call me out for not immediately updating my D1 town-scum list, on which you were at the scum end, in my first D2 post. When I replied that my list at that point was unchanged, you posted this subtle swipe at me:
BoomFrog wrote: :| Obviously, I mean an updated list that incorporates the vast amount of new information we have. I understand you are going for aggressive accusing, but try and think about context a little bit here.


Back to your question, note that you have made other attempts to tie my reading of your alignment to Madge’s alignment.

Here
BoomFrog wrote: @Bessie: if Madge is town do you still think I'm scum?

Here.
BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:Still reading BoomFrog as woof on D1 until this post:
BoomFrog wrote: @Sabrar: Do you really need more? I don't.
This is where I started leaning woof woof on BoomFrog, not as just for his quick acceptance of Madge’s claim, but more for calling out Sabrar for not immediately doing the same.
So to be clear, if I turn out to be justified in my Madge read then I'm back to Woof?



[This is in the same post, I’m just noting it for now because it caught my interest and I might want to come back to it later.]
BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:The Peaceful Whale bus would be a bit surprising, but it could be an attempt to save flicky, or Madge if he thought the wagon might swing back to her. Or it could just be a bus, because there was a chance that Peaceful Whale would accidentally slip and reveal the scum team. Or maybe he already did.
As Sabrar said, it didn't make sense to do this to save Madge, she was already safe. If I did it to save flicky that means Madge is town which conflicts with your previous premise.


This post is interesting:
BoomFrog wrote:(the choice of a cute Pomiranian-chihuahua mix as my avatar was to manipulate Bessie though... :P )

Because I think it is Sabrar you have been trying to manipulate, with posts like these:
Here.
BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I am against NL unless Sabrar can convince me.
Nice sheep.

Uck.. that's not what I meant... :?
You are just the only person with the overlap in mafia experience and game theory knowledge to potentially change my mind. Most likely no one is changing my mind, but I was trying to be precise.


Here.
BoomFrog wrote:Also, I'm 95% you are town now, and I moved off Flicky with you, so I'd say I read you correctly. It's really just this Madge disconnect that's bothering me so much, but it's outweighed by other evidence so I'm assuming it's genuine.


Here.
BoomFrog wrote: I didn't intend to call anyone out for not updating their lists yet. I was more thinking, "I and Sabrar have posted a lot and it's not really getting us anywhere. I am announcing that I'm holding back on creating more content until these people have time to catch up and weigh in."


Here.
BoomFrog wrote: Alright. I think we're on the same page mostly.



Here.
BoomFrog wrote:In fact Sabrar did see what I saw but knew extra secret information. That was why we had the disconnect.


Ninja'd by jimbob, will read later.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:42 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:So even discussing the idea is a bad idea? I think you're again thinking that I think in exactly the same way you do, because I don't see how discussion at this point can be harmful.
Yes, discussing is bad because it might give scum info they can use to PR-hunt.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:You didn't answer my question, but I'll answer to humour you anyway: PoE is starting to point to him as a likely candidate.
I'm in the unique situation of not having to explain myself when I don't have the inclination/energy/time. But the main reason I didn't answer is simply that there are too many small signs of Hari's pov being a townie one. And no, I'm not going to list them, you should find them yourself. Also I don't consider PoE a satisfactory answer when e.g. you exclude cemper based on a single slip.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:44 pm UTC

@bessie: you've shown that you're also very good at putting things into perspective if your base premise is true. Do you think you could reread BoomFrog with the assumption that he's Town?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:59 pm UTC

@Sabrar: Yes. But I’m going out for a few hours so it will have to wait until tonight.

Also I need to rewatch The Castle before my 48 hour rental expires so I can properly analyze the vibe of the film. Note: this is what Madge and I (and maybe the other Australians Vicarin and Suzaku) are discussing in the Gojoe thread; going forward I’ll try to separate movie discussion from actual game spoilers.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:40 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@LaserGuy - why did you vote Madge D2 (the latter time)? What did you find scummy about her?


I was working on the assumption Madge was likely a PR. Her claim D1 didn't make sense to me to be coming from a VT. Sabrar's claim and the subsequent discussion convinced me that Madge was probably not a PR, or at least, needed to claim if she were. VT claim looked bad on her, and her subsequent refusals to help Town in any way after her claim led me to believe she was caught scum.

Firstly, LaserGuy's vote on Madge appeared to be because he wanted her to claim, but then he maintains that vote after her claim, with no additional explanation.


This is weirdly ignoring the context of the situation. It should be clear from here, here and here that I thought Madge was either PR or scum. My earlier read on her also alludes to this.

This looks especially weird, given that prior to that, he had a town read on Madge.


This is weirdly ignoring the context of the situation. I had figured my read was wrong based on the evidence from the PR and my read was wrong.

Secondly, he swung around from Hari being one of his town reads to being Madge's likely scum buddy, based on nothing more than the No Lynch push


Your defense of Hari is noted.

and Hari backing down on a suggestion he acknowledged was a bad idea.


I didn't vote for him because he backed down. I voted for him because the conclusion of my argument was this:
LaserGuy wrote:All that lynching me without a claim does is gives scum a free mislynch and a free shot at one of our PRs.

And Hari agreeing with that statement implies he knows that lynching me is a mislynch. This is another strange misunderstanding from you.

He's also not said anything yet except "Woof?" D3. Generally, not getting good vibes here.


Day started fairly late at night for me and I can't post much on weekends. I feel like you should know this.

@LaserGuy - I'd like your updated thoughts on who you think is scum and why.


I still have town on cemper and BoomFrog, though I'm less confident in the latter. I'm still sorting through my thoughts on the remaining four and but probably won't have detailed reads until later in the Day. My initial gut reads right now are flicky = lazy Town; Hari = crafty scum; and one of bessie/jimbob is scum and the other is suspicious Town.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:58 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@LaserGuy: how did jimbob end up on your list here? You argued with him about No Lynch strategies but didn't mention anything else that you found scummy about him.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:33 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@LaserGuy: how did jimbob end up on your list here? You argued with him about No Lynch strategies but didn't mention anything else that you found scummy about him.


Basically this:
LaserGuy wrote:In D1 I felt he was asking a lot of questions that I felt were more asking for the sake of asking than actually scumhunting, which I found suspicious, and likewise did not like him trying to transpose his disagreement about NL with me into a scum read, though I'll give him credit for backing down on it when I called him on it.


I can give some more details later tonight if you want, but I don't have time to find the posts at the moment.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:24 pm UTC

Hari Seldon (Last read was back on D1, then scummiest):
Spoiler:
Asks people to clarify No Lynch stance. Discusses with Sabrar over evidence/lack thereof. Responds to my BF tell question. Says I'm being hypersensitive about a point, and leads that to thinking he's caught me out. Explains his viewpoint on issues I have with him. Thinks characteristics of flicky pointed to by cemper could be newbie characteristics. Advises PW on making reads. Asks bessie, somitomi and I about the slip by PW LG pointed out. Has LG scummiest, somitomi second, me third. Vicarin, bessie, cemper towniest. Doesn't think LG's setup talk malicious, but acted as a place to discussion, and votes him a bit later. Late on, says Madge should not be lynched, since she can full claim later. Thinks she's claimed PR. Would prefer to lynch flicky, instead of unclaimed player. Doesn't agree with lynching cemper. Doesn't want more claims close to deadline. Proposes NL again. Votes PW, hoping for NL.

D2. Picks up discussion with LG over discussing town reads, despite LG's previous desire not to give scum a clear indication of who to kill. Thinks LG came up with this to close himself off from early pressure. Also asks him about the PW "slip" again. Confused by PW. Thinks PW-Sabrar looked most partnery. Agrees with LG points against bessie. Thinks mafia likely to distance themselves from PW, especially if they can without pushing for his lynch. Thinks Madge/moody too close to PW to be partner. Madge must claim, but only at M-1/if she is going to be lynched. Discusses with bessie over why scum!BF wouldn't just lynch flicky. Discusses moody meta reaction with Sabrar. Wants to lynch LaserGuy, thinks buddy is either me or bessie. Asks LaserGuy about his responses to the PW-slip remarks. Finds my town read due to his place on the PW wagon, strange. Disagrees with cemper over PW's intention with the flicky read, and how it could link him to flicky and Madge. Proposes lynching LaserGuy and Madge claiming the next day, with analysis of results, but subsequently changes his mind, and thinks Madge should claim anyway, as scum likely can figure out who the doctor is. Makes big reads list. Can't get over LG's PW-slip post, which seems to make up most of his read of him. Got impression of excited PR from Madge, but now thinks she is scum. Doesn't think she'd act in self-preservation unless PR (or scum). Thinks my reading of him is not genuine, and doesn't like me not voting at day end.

D3. Responds to my defence over his read of me. Thinks I wouldn't vote a town read. Can't think why scum!me would join Madge wagon, and asks me about lynching an unclaimed. Challenges cemper to find second scum.
I'm not entirely sure what to make of this, but approaching the end of D1, after Madge had gone to bed, Hari was unwilling to lynch Madge because she might claim PR later, and that way there's no risk of lynching a PR, but does end up voting PW, saying he hopes for NL, despite PW also not having claimed, and him saying that he didn't want any more claims before deadline (which his vote on PW might have pushed PW to do, had he turned up before deadline). PW and flicky were roughly equivalent in his reads list (and later stated that it was a split-second decision between them), so this stands out a bit to me.

@Hari Seldon - why did you vote PW D1, and not flicky, given he hadn't claimed? Also, during D2, you were arguing with bessie about whether BoomFrog would bus PW. Just to be clear, were you saying that you felt BoomFrog wouldn't, or were you arguing the case, without actually agreeing with it?

I'm not getting any strong reads off of Hari either way. There are certainly plenty of comments and thoughts on a range of players. He does seem willing to change his opinion of players based on new evidence (see his latest comments on me versus his opinion of me D2), which is also good. However, there are a few small things that feel a little contradictory in his play, like for example, the point I made above. He's also not likely a buddy with LaserGuy, what with his strong scum reads voiced about him throughout the course of the game. I could buy a scum player keeping a buddy at arms length, but this feels a bit much. As I pointed out previously, the fact that PW posted nothing about Hari is interesting, and Hari did defend PW for his slip, so there are buddy points there, but I can't reason out why Hari would bus PW ahead of lynching flicky, if flicky is town. Admittedly, Hari did say that he felt scum would try to distance themselves from PW, so maybe that's why he said it - he'd been planning on doing so all along. Overall, things are pointing me towards a townie conclusion, despite the somewhat contradictory points he's made at times.

cemper (previously in the middle of the pack):
Spoiler:
Doesn't agree with BoomFrog's pooling of lynch candidates, and what it implies. Doesn't like Sabrar's stubbornness. Found it weird Sabrar voted for a player who was a bad choice. Asks Sabrar to explain scum teams. Interjects into flicky's discussion with bessie re. me/LG and narrowing lynch pool. Accepts that flicky's switch to PW inconsistent with his theory, given assigning town read to LG. Considers possibility of Hari/BF being buddy with flicky, instead of Sabrar. Interested in Hari's desire to force NL. Thinks scum!PW wouldn't give free townie points to two players in the same post. Theorises that PW tried to post a read on flicky that would persuade people away, but also needed to post a town read on somebody else. Thinks bessie points about PW genuine, and likes her commitment. Thinks Sabrar timestamp comments were confused due to night chat. Votes Sabrar. Starts getting annoyed at Sabrar. Unvotes following claim. Disagrees with Sabrar over flicky claim. Has flicky as only remaining solid scum read, and votes him. Thinks scum!bessie unlikely due to PW interactions. Madge tone seems genuine, but admits lack of confidence in tone reads. Defends Madge more, and doesn't think she'd have defended PW as much as he did. Thinks Madge lynch is way too easy.

D3. Votes flicky again based on his previous point. Notes absence of flicky and Hari from D2 vote. Responds to Sabrar comments about flip-flopping. Decides need to take look at BF again.
I'm finding cemper's stubbornness over his flicky read surprising. From what I can tell, it's based on two things, 1) his early analysis post, and 2) PW's post where he "town" reads flicky and Madge, meaning that he would be scum with exactly one of them. This latter point is the more dubious part of it to me, as a) PW implied that he would be happy to lynch flicky (and therefore the read of flicky WASN'T a town read), and b) even if both were town reads, he's treating an inexperienced scum player as if he would play the same way as he would. His posts are heavily tunnelling on flicky, and omitting/missing important details (such as flicky's stated desire to lynch Madge).

@cemper - what do you think about the mistake flicky made regarding forgetting somitomi's claim early D2? How do you think this comes from scum?

That being said, I'm actually inclined to believe that such extreme tunnelling is more likely to come from town than experienced scum. I think scum is more likely to be self-conscious about these things. Combine this with the chat-slip made by cemper earlier, and I'm pretty happy with putting him as fairly townie overall.

bessie (previously, a long time ago, slight-town and unlikely to be scum buddies with PW):
Spoiler:
Challenges Vicarin for refusal to update reads before votes. Defends desire to lynch somitomi above PW, because if she's wrong about PW, she has other reasons to suspect somitomi. Asks PW about likelihood for scum to joke. Continues head-butting with somitomi over "sleepgate", saying she thinks it odd PW would be asleep at 4pm. Asks for clarification from PW re. No Lynch/early hammer. Responds to me bringing up her lack of reads list. Continues argument with somitomi, saying he is misrepresenting her. Thinks PW is trying to act townie by copying her. Discusses her opinion of Madge with Sabrar, and why she's attacking her (for scummy behaviour). Distinguishes attacking and voting. Explains to Madge again her sleepgate theory. Concludes that somitomi and LaserGuy are trying to see how easily she would swing her vote to PW. Has town reads on Vicarin, and me, scum reads on Madge, PW, somitomi. Others unclear, but possible townie reads on BF, flicky, Sabrar. Advises PW not to take anything personal, and offers general help. Will accept no lynch if she can't lynch one of her preferred targets. Puzzled as to why cemper finds her such a good player. Thinks PW slip was not a scum slip specifically. Discusses her reaction to meta-reads with Hari. Bothered by Madge not trying to figure out her point. Surprised by BF buying Madge's PR soft claim, and his calling out Sabrar on it. Reading him as town though. Usually disapproves of townies claiming to avoid the lynch, but thinks it might be acceptable in this game. Dislikes Madge's soft claim. Suspicious of flicky and Madge for self-preservation plans. Encouraging words to Madge, but hurt that she and Sabrar are unwilling to take her personality into account. Unvotes somitomi following claim. Votes Madge for covering for PW. Might tunnel PW or BoomFrog. Concerned her views of cemper are OMGUS. Would not trust Madge claim. Thinks Madge would defend PW regardless of PW alignment. Has Madge and PW as scummiest, Vicarin and Sabrar as towniest (after confirmed townie).

D2. Agrees that Madge would be against killing a newbie, but Madge might be persuaded by breadcrumb, if her scum buddy is leading the team. Thinks scum might have wanted to bus PW. Notes my use of the wagon to limit the scum field to four players. Acknowledges lack of vote on PW. Thinks I'm worried about the day's discussion. Confused about BF missing her read list from near end of D1. Thinks I needed to find an excuse to kick LaserGuy out of the lynch pool. Thinks PW was concerned for buddy!moody. Asks BF to re-evaluate an earlier point given PW's flip. Was sure N1 that scum team was Madge, BF, possibly PW. Hesitating about Madge due to NK. Not discounting wagonomics. Thinks BF could have persuaded Madge to kill newbie. Thinks scum!PW would be fairly obvious, and should be left to later. Points out that she was not around when the PW wagon gained momentum. Asks Hari whether he thinks scum might have bussed him this game, to protect somebody else. Provides update list (BF, Madge scummiest, somitomi, Sabrar, flicky towniest). Responds to a number of comments by LG. Thinks LG meta read of moody incorrect. Thinks scum!BF might have been afraid of wagon swinging back to Madge. Dislikes me and LG pushing PW voters=confirmed town. Considering her read on BF if Madge is town. Explains reason to lynch obv scum later.

Pondering LG + me as team. Asks Madge why she thinks she'll get lynched today. Suspicious of LG and I for trying to narrow lynch pool. Narrowing lynch pool to pool that doesn't contain scum is good. Posts stream-of-consciousness BF read. Started leaning negatively until his quick acceptance of Madge claim and calling out Sabrar for not. PW bus would be surprising, but maybe an attempt to save flicky/Madge, or attempt to get rid of PW because of a slip. Notes it interesting that BF thought she should update her list based on his end of D1 antics. Points out that scum buddies could have discussed analysing confirmation posts with PW, and finds it interesting that LaserGuy keeps insisting that only bessie knows about this analysis style. Points out how PW was not a likely lynch when she left for work. Doesn't think hard bussing is impossible. Explains her point about mine and LG's lynch pools. Concerned by BF throwing shade on people for not following him. Wonders if scum!BF did not join chat immediately. Anxiously awaiting LG case on her, and asks for her scum buddies list. Posts big read of cemper. Found people suspicious for going after barking BoomFrog. Doesn't understand cemper's meta reads of her. Likes his unwavering read of somitomi. Understands his flicky read, but thinks his misreading him. Undecided on whether cemper's chat-comment was a town slip. Doesn't see Sabrar's suspicion of my cemper case as a defence of cemper. Wants Sabrar to explain his scum read of her. Notes LG's selective use of meta arguments. Points out she pointed out contradiction in PW read of her versus me. Lack of interaction is not indicative of alignment itself. Votes LaserGuy. Encourages somitomi and flicky. Finds it convenient that BF's lynch pool does not include himself. Asks BF who he really wants to lynch. Sabrar soul reads blinding him. Thinks Sabrar anxious for cemper to post, but also cemper's observation unlikely to come from scum. Doesn't want BF to push Sabrar over claiming. Points out that Madge is only excited to claim when not vanilla town. Continues disagreement with BF over this, and thinks he's refusing to allow for scum!Madge. Switches to voting BF following proposed doctor strategy. Has BF/Madge as scummiest, Hari, flicky towniest (after confirmed townies). Wants to know why Sabrar unwilling to consider BF. Scum read of BF holds regardless of Madge's alignment. Using vote to signal intent. If Madge is town, would be suspicious of cemper for his unsupported town read and BoomFrog. Notes those who responded to Madge's request.

D3. Finds it interesting that BF is trying to draw attention away from LaserGuy. Brings up previous concerns with him, independent of Madge, focusing on his calling out various people for not abiding by his wishes. Brings up his attempts to tie the alignments of himself and Madge together. Thinks BoomFrog is trying to manipulate Sabrar.
So, I just spent WAY too long trying to read bessie, and didn't get much further. Reading her points for much of the second half of D1, I didn't actually feel like she attacked Peaceful Whale as much as I remembered her doing so, although I haven't gone back over the first half. Most of her points in relation to him were defending her earlier points, rather than anything new, and attacking people for not agreeing with her, or understanding her posts (which, to be fair, was valid to do in some cases, e.g. somitomi and Madge not understanding her points around sleep gate). Onto D2, and my feeling is that she spent nearly her entire time looking at a relatively confined group of people, in any seriousness. Tunnelling is well within bessie's meta, and she's really going against the general trend of where people are on BoomFrog. My instinct says that scum!bessie would be more likely to tunnel somebody that is in the general consciousness as somebody suspicious, but I'm not really sure about it. Overall, bessie generally seems fairly standard bessie, and I don't see her as a good lynch candidate for today - I'd rather lynch LaserGuy or Hari Seldon, as things stand - but I may have to come back to her later to find a team-mate for one of those two, and revisit my earlier read of her attacking Peaceful Whale on D1, making it unlikely she's his buddy.

I should go to bed, so will leave BoomFrog and responses until tomorrow.

Current list:
Scum
Sabrar
flicky
BoomFrog
cemper
bessie
Hari Seldon
LaserGuy
Town

Vote LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:09 am UTC

EBWOP: just noticed, and in case it wasn't clear, I managed to get my town and scum labels mixed up on that list :oops:
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Suzaku » Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:51 am UTC

Current Votals:

LaserGuy - 2 (BoomFrog, jimbobmacdoodle)
flicky1991 - 1 (cemper93)

Not voting: bessie, flicky1991, Hari Seldon, LaserGuy, Sabrar

With 8 alive hammer requires 5 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
No deadline at this time.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:41 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Who do you find as likely scum currently?
I'd planned to put scum reads in that same post and then found I didn't have a strong scum read on anyone... I need to read through the remaining players.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@flicky - please give an example of how LG's and cemper's points are coming from a townie point of view.
I don't have time to find examples right now (about to leave for work), I must remember to come back to this.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:37 am UTC

I remember what pinged me about bessie. It was this post where she speculates that moody's line is rather indicative of scum!moody and town!PW despite herself also attacking PW for other resaons.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:07 am UTC

JimBob wrote:@Hari Seldon - why did you vote PW D1, and not flicky, given he hadn't claimed?
Because there was a chance of NL and I had stronger Town Flicky feelings at the time. Given another minute or two, I may have voted Flicky. I was going back and forth on lynching an unclaimed uncertainty or someone who I thought had a pretty good chance of being a mislynch.

Also, during D2, you were arguing with bessie about whether BoomFrog would bus PW. Just to be clear, were you saying that you felt BoomFrog wouldn't, or were you arguing the case, without actually agreeing with it?
It was more that I felt the former, but could have been convinced otherwise. And I wanted to see if Bessie would relent if faced with the counter points.

If I follow this question's line, I suspect that you are attempting to draw a contradiction between my interpretation of your behavior and Boom's. Is that correct? The situations are very different. Boom led the PW lynch and pinged people to vote. He was actively pushing PW. You did not commit to any of the wagons when faced with the pressure. When asking why Scum/Town Boom or Scum/Town Jim would behave the way they did in a Scum PW and Scum Madge world, the questions regarding Flicky are very different. For Boom, it is "why would Boom actively push PW when he could have easily have not done anything or voted Flicky if he needed to"? For you, it is "why would Jim not commit to any of the wagons, including Flicky"?

In Boom's case: The payoff of bussing PW without even getting a PR cc out of it is absurdly low compared to the payoff of simply mislynching without the blood being on his hands. In your case: As I said in my read post, I could see reasons for both Town Jim and Scum Jim failing to commit under pressure. Town Jim really could have just not wanted to No Lynch or lynch an unclaimed as you said. Scum Jim could have not wanted to bus his buddy, while at the same time not want to contradict himself (having a Town read of Flicky and being strongly against NLing). What made me lean more toward Scum Jim was this post:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Mind you, I'd rather lynch PW than No Lynch, which would be what happens if I switch to voting flicky.
It is strange to me that you would have preferred lynching PW over a No lynch, yet you sill did not vote. Had someone unvoted PW, it would have been a NL. Even if you were faced with two undesirable choices, why would you not have chosen the better choice from you point of view? Your failure to act here is still pretty scummy to me, even with Town Madge, but I need to think more about it.

On another note, looking back at the end of D1 situation, this is also very suspicious:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I don't want to lynch anybody who hasn't claimed. I don't have a scum read on PW, and so I fear lynching a PR. I'd actually prefer lynching someone who might be vanilla, or scum, although I don't think flicky is scum either.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:[...]
Unvote
Vote Madge

I think flicky is probably town as stated earlier (and yes, I know this looks bad if he flips scum). I am conscious that Madge hasn't claimed, and that there's a chance that we could lynch PR!Madge - assuming that Madge doesn't come in and claim suddenly unexpectedly, I'll probably unvote again.

Ninja'ed by Sabrar:

Unvote
Vote cemper


Is cemper going to be around to claim if we get more voters supporting us?
You made clear that you did not desire to lynch an unclaimed, but when faced with no other desirable option, you were at least willing to make the choice for Madge, but not for PW.

You were also willing to risk it with Cemper. As I said earlier, you were also willing to risk it with myself. I'm having difficulty believing this reasoning,

Jim wrote:
Hari wrote:I am curious though why you were OK with me if you didn't want to lynch an unclaimed? You noted that I had not been on for a while, so why did you attempt to peruse that course so close to the deadline, with no hint that I would be online to claim if necessary?
I believed that you would appear before deadline. The last I said about preferring you was over 4 hours before deadline, so there was plenty of time for you to post and claim, if others had agreed to voting you.
I believed that you would appear before deadline. The last I said about preferring you was over 4 hours before deadline, so there was plenty of time for you to post and claim, if others had agreed to voting you.
because you showed willingness to risk lynching Madge (who had just stated she was going to bed) and Cemper. If I am interpreting your posts correctly, you also showed willingness to lynch Cemper here:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:bessie - how do you feel about lynching an unclaimed player?

bessie wrote:I don't understand the question. Is this about Madge?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Madge in particular. Also, would be curious about your feelings on cemper and lynching him (he hasn't claimed yet either).
These followed from your Madge and Cemper vote post, so I presume this was you considering a Cemper lynch even if unclaimed, is this correct? If so, it looks very much to me like you were willing to go the unclaimed route, just not when it came down to PW.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:56 am UTC

I am leaning town on Bessie. This post gives me a really strong Town vibe:
bessie wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
Peaceful Whale wrote:In all my games, even when I’m town, I’ve been seen as pretty scummy.

*Squints at this*. Is this a slip?

@Bessie @JimBob @Somitomi What do you think about this?
I don’t think it’s a scum slip that indicates he is scum, in that I think that whether Peaceful Whale is scum, or just that he is worrying so hard about being scum read, that he has scum!PW foremost in his thoughts so he's going to be making PW=scum type remarks. Ugh, that's not very clear, and I don’t know if I can be any clearer in what I’m trying to say, but ask me again if you don’t follow this and I will try again.

I had forgotten I had made the post below post in Halloween. Bessie's tone was so uncannily similar:
bessie wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:
Maven wrote:if It is roleplay, than why would scum roleplay as their scummy character?


Bessie, is this a slip?

A slip by Maven? Hmm, he caught what I missed, that the role playing was in character for the town faction, not the scum faction. Perhaps he read the flavor on the first day. If not, I’m sure he has read it by now because that point has already been noted/discussed in thread. And if he read my Peaceful Whale case, I pointed out that PW was unsure of the town/mafia factions, so that may have prompted him to read the flavor. So no, I’m not seeing it as a slip by Maven. Now I am pondering if perhaps you meant something else by this question. (Is anyone role playing as scum? What would be the purpose? What am I missing about Maven? What am I missing from this question? Am I dense – no don’t answer that!) I will think about it today.
(Maven was Scum/Bessie was Town).

I believe that partner Bessie would have been inclined to take the stance that PW's post was suspicious. As I said before, when Scum are asked a direct question about their partner, they are highly inclined to respond negatively and succinctly. Stumbling over your answer looks very partnery on the base level, so higher level scum avoid this and answer directly. Bessie's post here is so incoherent, I don't think it is something a self conscious partner Bessie would have made.

BTW, that Halloween post further adds to the feeling I have that Laser was trying to appeal to me with his slip post and get out in front PW potentially receiving backlash. Not only was Bessie's response uncannily similar, Laser's post was straight up mimicry.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:24 am UTC

Thank you Hari for the detailed response and I can see where you're coming from, but, no, I think you got the wrong end of the stick on most of those points, unfortunately. I'll post a more detailed response later on anything I feel needs more clarity (along with responses to anyone else), but the quick summary responses:

On contradictions, I felt you were contradicting yourself somewhat on someone being willing to bus, but I was not referring to your case on me. I need to go back and look at my notes though to see who it was.

On voting Madge D1, I felt she might show up one more time, but was prepared to unvote, if she didn't.

On asking bessie about willingness to lynch unclaimed, I'll need to look back at context, but IIRC, I wasn't pushing for lynching of an unclaimed, but trying to push against it, whilst also trying to get a read based on bessie's stance in this area.

On not voting PW, I was actively online at deadline, and could very quickly change my vote if needed to prevent a No Lynch. I don't think scum would have stuck their head up above the parapet to vote NL anyway, without more widespread agreement.

On willingness to lynch cemper, I can't prove this, but my assumption was that cemper would have come in to claim, if needed, and I'd have switched my vote, if he didn't, but was looking likely to get lynched.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:06 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Onto D2, and my feeling is that she spent nearly her entire time looking at a relatively confined group of people, in any seriousness.
This is an interesting statement, coming from a guy who, in his first post of D2 completely disregarded the previous 16 pages of content and limited his lynch pool to the four living players (other than himself) that did not end the day with a vote on Peaceful Whale, and on the next page eliminated LaserGuy form his pool based on D1 content (but no one else).

Sabrar wrote:I remember what pinged me about bessie. It was this post where she speculates that moody's line is rather indicative of scum!moody and town!PW despite herself also attacking PW for other resaons.
I don’t understand what would ping you from that post. I agreed that moody was suspicious for his Peaceful Whale post, because (1) they could be scum buddies, (2) scum!moody would look good defending town! PW upon his flip, or (3) scum!moody may have reasons for wanting town!PW alive (no examples were given but include PW’s newbieness, there is a chance he would make the wrong choice at end game because inexperience, etc I can list more if you want or see my arguments with plytho in crossover).


Sabrar wrote:@bessie: you've shown that you're also very good at putting things into perspective if your base premise is true. Do you think you could reread BoomFrog with the assumption that he's Town?

BoomDog analysis:
I agree with Sabrar’s speculation that BoomFrog amy have decided to woof before the game started, and would have done so regardless of his alignment. But along that line of thought I think that scum!BoomFrog would have not joined chat immediately (already discussed by me here)
so that the reactions of his partners would appear more natural. I think that scum!BoomFrog would have only done the woof gambit if his mafia team had at least one member that he knew would be able to play along with it without chatting about it first, so the most likely partners are (in order) moody or bessie, possible partner is Sabrar (because I’m not sure that BoomFrog would have pulled this without consulting Sabrar first but then again I think it would have amused BoomFrog greatly to see scum-partner-Sabrar’s reaction), and maybe jimbobmacdoodle or LaserGuy. If my theory is correct then I am pretty sure that BoomFrog’s partners are not both in this group: flicky, somitomi, Peaceful Whale, Vicarin (because all are relative newbies), Hari Seldon (because new to forum so unknown how he would react), cemper93 (because three year absence, unknown how he would react). So from my point of view, BoomDog's three most likely partners in this gambit are all town, which makes scum!BoomFrog possible but less likely.

Note: LaserGuy did a similar analysis here.

Note: BoomFrog’s analysis of reactions here, come back to this if BoomFrog is scum.

End of D1 vote analysis:
Possible wagons: flicky, Madge, Peaceful Whale, cemper. BoomFrog moved the lynch from flicky to Peaceful Whale, my theory was that he bussed Peaceful Whale to protect his partner Madge (I still believe she was an option which is why I left my vote on her, and I don’t think cemper was an easy lynch option because Vicarin and I were gone for the day). This theory is now invalid with Madge’s flip, if BoomFrog was protecting a partner it would most likely be flicky.

Note: it is possible that BoomFrog was going for a hard bus for town cred (somewhat unlikely), also possible that this was an accidental bus (difficult to judge).


Some things that are still bothering me about BoomFrog:
1. He was too sure of his Madge secret townie club read, bessie’s response here.
2. His insistence on narrowing the D2 lynch pool to non PW voters, see here, for his lynch plan see here.
3. His buddying of Sabrar, see here.
4. I get a feeling that he's being dismissive of me, see previous link and these:
Spoiler:
This.
BoomFrog wrote: I felt that the way the votes moved around and who people suggested while scrambling was very informative. But I agree, since looking at it from your perspective, there wasn't a lot of new info for you. The only real new info is, who pushed the PW lynch, and I can understand you are skeptical of everything I do and need to ponder it extra.

This.
BoomFrog wrote: First of all, it's important to prove you are right even to yourself. You were not 100% sure PW was scum, right? Lynching him solidifies the foundation and lets you know 100% if he is scum or not and then build deductions from there. Secondly, as an effective townie you want to catch scum, and actually successfully direct the lynch onto the scum. Proving you are right to everyone about PW would help you achieve that second step with your further reads. Thirdly, proving you caught scum D1 can help prove you are town which should be important to you. Were you really near 100% sure that PW was scum and did not want to lynch him D1? I'm so confused about this issue.

This.
BoomFrog wrote: Sigh, no probably not. Her behavior is so frustrating. But I guess I've made her paranoid from previous games.

This.
BoomFrog wrote: So, you were saying that in the above quote I was trying to mentally manipulate town into accepting a Madge PR claim. However, Madge has in fact claimed VT and I have in fact not tried to vere town away from lynching her. So it seems your theory is completely wrong.

Yet, I suspect this result still somehow confirms that I am scum.


Some Peaceful Whale observations that I made as I was rereading for my town BoomFrog analysis:

Refer to this post.
Peaceful Whale wrote:Hari Seldon I don’t think I’ve seen a lot of him in this thread. Sadly it appears he’s not boomfrog’s alter ego.
This is a very odd comment. Peaceful Whale (apparently) can’t remember content from earlier in the current game, but he remembers a one-off remark from two months ago that was in the Gojoe thread. Possibilities: PW is scum with Hari, PW is scum with BoomFrog, someone (LaserGuy?) was talking about Hari in chat.

From Peaceful Whale’s BoomFrog analysis.
Peaceful Whale wrote:7th post: acknowledges LaserGuys action ... I think someone else tunneled led someone for the same reason, and they were both town.
Refers to Boomfrog’s Post 7. Something is wrong with this comment I just haven’t figured out what it is yet.

Refer to this post.
Hari Seldon wrote:I am intentionally being more reserved in my reactions toward Peaceful Whale. I believe it was a mistake to press so hard on him early on in Halloween. I want to give him room to play. He was also targeted early on in Crossover, and became much easier to read later on when people had let up on him.
Perhaps he got much easier to read because he got a mason partner on D2, a security blanket so to speak, someone that could confirm him as town, why didn't you consider this possibility?


Ninja'd by Hari and jimbob, it's 2:00 am I'll reply tomorrow.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:39 am UTC

bessie wrote:I don’t understand what would ping you from that post.
It's just that you seemed to advocate an interpretation that later turned out to be completely incorrect.

bessie wrote:BoomDog analysis:
I apologize if this sounds rude but did you even make the effort to understand town!BF's pov? All I'm seeing in your analysis are the possible scenarios where he is scum and the things that trouble you.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:48 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Onto D2, and my feeling is that she spent nearly her entire time looking at a relatively confined group of people, in any seriousness.
This is an interesting statement, coming from a guy who, in his first post of D2 completely disregarded the previous 16 pages of content and limited his lynch pool to the four living players (other than himself) that did not end the day with a vote on Peaceful Whale, and on the next page eliminated LaserGuy form his pool based on D1 content (but no one else).
And I then proceeded to look at every single other player to draw links to PW, concluding that 2 out of those 3 remaining were less likely than LaserGuy, or some of the PW voters to be PW's buddy. I didn't ignore anybody (apart from somitomi), so I don't think this is comparable. Surely you must have noticed this? Contrast that with your relative low range of people you've been looking at apparently.

bessie wrote:Ninja'd by Hari and jimbob, it's 2:00 am I'll reply tomorrow.
That's crazy late to be playing Mafia!
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:08 pm UTC

bessie wrote:possible partner is Sabrar (because I’m not sure that BoomFrog would have pulled this without consulting Sabrar first but then again I think it would have amused BoomFrog greatly to see scum-partner-Sabrar’s reaction)
You're not considering Sabrar to be confirmed town?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:33 pm UTC

@jimbob: are you thinking in scum-teams? Do you think {Hari Seldon, LaserGuy} makes sense?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:07 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
Madge wrote:Keep those expectations tempered; I'm so annoyed I managed to get myself voted off the island again.

I'm like an alternate universe bessie: haven't been scum for like a year, but instead of everyone finding me townie as a result everyone finds me scummy :lol:


Mmm... this actually doesn't sound right though. I can't remember any game I've played with you when you were lynched.
Madge didn't say she was lynched. She said people found her scummy. Surely you remember Crossover? Or maybe Secret Santa that you modded?

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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:11 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: are you thinking in scum-teams? Do you think {Hari Seldon, LaserGuy} makes sense?
I haven't spent much time considering my scum teams, but I don't feel like Hari Seldon/LaserGuy are buddies. From my read of Hari Seldon:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:[Hari Seldon is] also not likely a buddy with LaserGuy, what with his strong scum reads voiced about him throughout the course of the game. I could buy a scum player keeping a buddy at arms length, but this feels a bit much
It's possible they are, but I feel like it's more likely one of {LaserGuy, Hari Seldon} plus somebody else.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:12 pm UTC

EBWOP for clarity: I haven't spent much time since D3 started considering scum teams.

That's something I'm going to look at more later.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:33 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
Madge wrote:Keep those expectations tempered; I'm so annoyed I managed to get myself voted off the island again.

I'm like an alternate universe bessie: haven't been scum for like a year, but instead of everyone finding me townie as a result everyone finds me scummy :lol:


Mmm... this actually doesn't sound right though. I can't remember any game I've played with you when you were lynched.
Madge didn't say she was lynched. She said people found her scummy. Surely you remember Crossover? Or maybe Secret Santa that you modded?


I was referring to the underlined bit.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:05 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
Madge wrote:Keep those expectations tempered; I'm so annoyed I managed to get myself voted off the island again.

I'm like an alternate universe bessie: haven't been scum for like a year, but instead of everyone finding me townie as a result everyone finds me scummy :lol:


Mmm... this actually doesn't sound right though. I can't remember any game I've played with you when you were lynched.
Madge didn't say she was lynched. She said people found her scummy. Surely you remember Crossover? Or maybe Secret Santa that you modded?


I was referring to the underlined bit.
:roll:

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:11 pm UTC

@Bessie, I was referring to later on D1. Also with regard to the one off remark, that isn't correct. PW thought I was BoomFrog in Halloween.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:09 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Well he and the other four in my lynch pool all lost a lot of townie points for not being on the PW wagon. The above was what distinguished him from the other four.
Doesn't really answer my question. Let me rephrase it. Are you looking mainly for town-tells to clear people or scum-slips to catch them out? If you find both in the same player which do you give more importance? Is a single anti-town behavior enough to wipe out large townie points accumulated so far? Is a huge town-tell enough to excuse past scummy behavior?

First of all, definitive scum slips are very rare whereas definitive town slips are relatively common from newbies. Also, actions (voting) are much more definitive then words. Early days I'm mostly looking for revelations of hidden thoughts that can be scum or town "slips". When scum are skilled this generally means you're only going to find town slips and get scum by PoE. Later days you can usually figure things out from the voting record.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:17 pm UTC

But you based your 85% confidence on a 'slip'. Was that discarded? Is LaserGuy a newbie for these purposes?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:28 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Who do you find as likely scum currently?


I'd planned to put scum reads in that same post and then found I didn't have a strong scum read on anyone... I need to read through the remaining players.


Can you make an ordered town to scum list based on your current feelings so we can get a sense of where you're at?

Can you try to explain why you are having so much trouble with scum reads this game? I'm skimming back over your content in bin Chicken mafia and you were much more decisive about your reads.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:20 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Can you make an ordered town to scum list based on your current feelings so we can get a sense of where you're at?
town
Sabrar
LaserGuy
cemper
Hari Seldon
jimbobmacdoodle
BoomFrog
bessie
scum
LaserGuy wrote:Can you try to explain why you are having so much trouble with scum reads this game? I'm skimming back over your content in bin Chicken mafia and you were much more decisive about your reads.
This game has been moving much quicker than Bin Chicken did, so it's been harder to keep track, for me.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:31 pm UTC

As promised, some reasons for finding LG and cemper townie:

LG: D1 interaction with Peaceful Whale didn't feel like how he'd treat a scum buddy. As I noted when I voted for Whale, I already couldn't see both of them being scum. I objected to what he was saying about PRs claiming at the time, but looking back he was clearly not trying to force anything and he did generate discussion with it.

cemper: As I've mentioned before, his exchange with somi about claiming PRs seemed natural and town/town. His pushing of me and analysis of my reads post felt like a townie's analysis, not scum looking for a scapegoat.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:40 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:But you based your 85% confidence on a 'slip'. Was that discarded? Is LaserGuy a newbie for these purposes?

No, laser isn't a newbie. Remember, everyone starts at 73% chance to be town. 85% is "I think he is likely town". That information had been overshadowed by his end of D1 attitude and his voting pattern in light of PW's flip.
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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:49 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Remember, everyone starts at 73% chance to be town.
BoomFrog wrote:His plan is so terrible, I'd expect scum!LaserGuy to be more cautious about advocating a plan so clearly bad for town. That got me to about 75%. I also liked that he reacted naturally to my shenanigans. Although, now that I am scrutinizing more and trying to compensate for ego, it is odd that he is willing to trust me after getting burned so badly in CrossOver.
Here you made it sound like a much bigger deal than the 2.3% it implies if he started at 72.7%

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:04 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Reference this post.
BoomFrog wrote:I can't remember your stated logic because I can't understand it. Why would scum Madge indicate scum Boomfrog? Please don't just go back and quote yourself, I will believe you that you've said your reason before. Just restate things. It's faster for you and easier for me.
You misunderstand the intent of the post to which you replied. I find it interesting that your first D3 post consisted of a vote for LaserGuy with no explanation, and a challenge to me to immediately vote for you (hmm, I wonder if you already had a response prepared and I blew it by not adhering to the script). My quote was to remind you that I said I would be taking a closer look at LaserGuy should Madge flip town. And now you are trying to draw my attention away from LaserGuy and back to focusing on you. Why? Especially interesting is the question you asked, “why would scum Madge indicate scum BoomFrog” so you are setting me up to prepare a lengthy response to what is now an irrelevant argument. Why not ask “what are your points independent of BoomFrog-Madge ties”?

I'm not trying to distract you and I specifically was trying to avoid a lengthy response. I'm asking about a hypothetical if Madge was scum situation, because your stated response to that situation doesn't make sense to me.

bessie wrote:My scum read of you holds regardless of Madge’s flip. If Madge flips town, I will be taking a closer look at LaserGuy on D3. If Madge flips scum you might have me all to yourself.
It seems to me that although I protected Madge D1 I attacked her D2, so if she had flipped scum you shouldn't have thought I was scummy in that situation. I would be a pretty awful player if I got my two scum-buddies lynched D1 and D2, especially in a newbie game. So why would I "have you all to myself"?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:07 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Remember, everyone starts at 73% chance to be town.
BoomFrog wrote:His plan is so terrible, I'd expect scum!LaserGuy to be more cautious about advocating a plan so clearly bad for town. That got me to about 75%. I also liked that he reacted naturally to my shenanigans. Although, now that I am scrutinizing more and trying to compensate for ego, it is odd that he is willing to trust me after getting burned so badly in CrossOver.
Here you made it sound like a much bigger deal than the 2.3% it implies if he started at 72.7%

Well, I hadn't actually done the math on the 73% until today. When I made that post D1 I think was estimating people start at like 65%.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos


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