Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:32 pm UTC

Madge wrote:Keep those expectations tempered; I'm so annoyed I managed to get myself voted off the island again.

I'm like an alternate universe bessie: haven't been scum for like a year, but instead of everyone finding me townie as a result everyone finds me scummy :lol:

I actually considered using my dying breaths to claim scum and then when I flip town you can analyse scum's reactions to it, but then I figured I'd get hammered too quickly to get reactions from scum. But I thought it was an interesting thought that flies in the face of "townies don't lie" - but I don't know if people would find such a thing useful.


Using your dying breaths to give us some final reads would be helpful.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:37 pm UTC

Madge wrote:I'm like an alternate universe bessie: haven't been scum for like a year, but instead of everyone finding me townie as a result everyone finds me scummy :lol:
I always find you townie. This was the first game in quite a while where I read your opening post and didn't immediately get the vibes I'm used to.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:40 pm UTC

Madge wrote:Keep those expectations tempered; I'm so annoyed I managed to get myself voted off the island again.

I'm like an alternate universe bessie: haven't been scum for like a year, but instead of everyone finding me townie as a result everyone finds me scummy :lol:


Mmm... this actually doesn't sound right though. I can't remember any game I've played with you when you were lynched.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:42 pm UTC

You're a unicorn Sabrar. Hopefully my flip will give you more data to unfailingly read me as town in future.... so that way when i do flip scum I can STRIKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think my past posts have some reads in them. I have nothing more to say that's not going to be unreasonably tinged by OMGUS. I'll post if I see anything weird don't get me wrong but basically everyone has gone down some notches for "trying to vote out townie ol' me".

At least when I go, you'll have two wagons to analyse for scum. .... or for townies who consistently read me as scummy.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:43 pm UTC

i'm not sure if i get voted off or not but i definitely have people hammering on me the whole time unless i have a good claim or something (let me double check my PM - nope, still not doctor, sigh!), or, well, Sabrar just decides to defend me like the upstanding citizen he is.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:46 pm UTC

@Madge:

Why aren't you voting?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:47 pm UTC

Would it make a difference if she did?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:58 pm UTC

Not voting because I'm going to be doing it entirely defensively and there's no viable alternative there yet, and I don't want to be the one to propose it because I'm not exactly got a trust worthy reputation this game.

i'll accept any target you have (apart from Sabrar or Somi obviously; would prefer not bessie but if it's her or me...).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:58 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:Would it make a difference if she did?
Yes. We'd have more wine. :D

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:25 pm UTC

I think we're done here if somebody feels like hammering.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:37 pm UTC

I'm going to bed now, and haven't had a chance to read the latest bits of the thread in detail. However, I'll not get much chance before deadline anyway, so I don't mind people hammering whilst I'm in bed.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:31 am UTC

Even though this is going to look like wine at this point, I'm going to put this out there for reference later.

If Madge is mafia, I think Hari Seldon is the third scum. I think that scum may have found a breadcrumb from Vicarin D1 and were pushing No Lynch on D1 to try to kill an unclaimed PR.

Filling in the alignments from here with Madge as scum:
Hari Seldon wrote:I am not fully read up yet, but I will have a summary of my reads sometime today. Can anyone who has not made their stance clear on No Lynching do so? If it is not going to happen, I would rather have my vote elsewhere.

These are the stances that I recall (correct me if I'm wrong):

For
Laser, Hari, Sabrar, Madge, PW

Undecided
Boom

Against
Jim, Vicarin, Flicky, Somitomi

So I believe I've just missed Cemper's and Bessie's stances.

wam wrote:No Lynch - 2 (Hari Seldon, Madge)

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby somitomi » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:33 am UTC

I've reread most of D2 and man, I don't know how bessie does what she does...
This will probably end up being incoherent.
Madge wrote:I'm vanilla town. All the softclaiming was an attempt to get scum to think about killing me rather than a PR, since my scummy meta means that I'm not a popular NK target. I am well aware that's also what scum would do to keep their claim options open and buy some time; but that's wine.

Madge's claim doesn't reassure me too much. I can see not wanting to claim vanillla outright and even the idea of alluding to be a PR to draw the NK makes sense, but scum!madge had most of a day to think about what to claim.

cemper93 wrote:Basically, PW saw that his buddy was getting lynched and decided to save him. PW decided to influence town by giving a town read on flicky, but then he realized that then he would be tied to flicky tomorrow if the lynch would happen anyway. Therefore, he decided to give a only half-strong town read for distancing, and in addition, to make it less obvious that he was giving a town read on flicky in particular, he decided to give another town read on a player who was actually town -- namely Madge.

Although I disputed the town read earlier, I think this makes sense in that Peaceful Whale wouldn't associate with both of his mates in a single post.
BoomF[list]rog wrote:Not disagreeing with the conclusion, but fyi, this shouldn't be counted in Flicky's favor. Pushing the wagon from Flicky to PW doesn't mean Flicky was not scum. If for example there had been a neck and neck race or the wagon was pushed from PW to Flicky but failed, that would indicate Flicky is more lik[/list]ely town since scum showed a preference for his lynch. But the way it happened this game, Flicky's alignment doesn't affect scum's desire to lynch PW.


BoomFrog wrote:Not disagreeing with the conclusion, but fyi, this shouldn't be counted in Flicky's favor. Pushing the wagon from Flicky to PW doesn't mean Flicky was not scum. If for example there had been a neck and neck race or the wagon was pushed from PW to Flicky but failed, that would indicate Flicky is more likely town since scum showed a preference for his lynch. But the way it happened this game, Flicky's alignment doesn't affect scum's desire to lynch PW.

Huh, strange that BoomFrog points this out and yet the plan explained in his subsequent post hinges on the assumption tha flicky is town and that clears everyone on his wagon. I don't feel comfortable relying on this plan for two reasons: 1) we'll probably be all dead by the time we realise we were wrong and 2) my town read of flicky isn't strong enough.

Sabrar wrote:@all: if we lynch scum today we have 50% chance to clear/confirm someone. somitomi tracks the suspected player, I watch somitomi. Doctor should target me to discourage scum and then we can repeat it the next night if necessary.
IF we are confident that we're lynching scum.

This seems like a good suggestion although I always have trouble in the confidence department.

LaserGuy wrote:...............

I'm surprised you agreed so readily to that last bit considering how much you've been tunneling me this game.

FoS Hari

This looks off to me as well...

cemper93
cemper93 wrote:Now that Sabrar has turned out to be confirmed town, flicky is my one remaining solid scum read. I still don't think that a Madge/flicky team is possible, and therefore am not going to vote Madge. I'm also not willing to lynch bessie, although at this point, even Sabrar appears to have understood that she's not scum anyway. I'm going to attempt to re-read later to re-evaluate the remaining players and finalize my vote, but because deadline is approaching, I'll just, right now, at this point feeling the drudgery of repetition

Vote: flicky

Why are you so sure Madge is town?

Confirmed town: Sabrar and yours truly
Townish: cemper, Hari Seldon (mostly for lack of anything scummyI could point out), flicky1991 (I'm with jimbob on this one, the tone of the claim felt genuine)
Supsicious-ish: BoomFrog (clears people on PW wagon conveniently including him and also the issues I have with his plan),bessie (I'm still troubled by her not voting PW while tunneling others based on her scumread of PW)
Scummish: Madge(read her as scum on D1 and the claim) LaserGuy (his D1 vote on PW feels like distancing and he's done a similar thing today with Madge)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:37 am UTC

I'm accepting my fate, but can you guys please post some analyses for "if madge is town"? That way I can offer my thoughts and maybe you can give me an idea that will spark something in me. The "madge is scum, hari is her scumbuddy" line of thinking will be great for you guys to do tomorrow if I flip scum, but from my point of view, as town who is facing her death, there's not much I can add to the discussion if it's going to be centred around identifying my scumbuddy. I mean, I can say, "yeah so-and-so seems scummy but he's not my scumbuddy because I'm town" but that's not really that helpful.

Then again I understand the desire that if you think I'm scum but think you won't survive the night, you want to have your stuff on the record so people can use it to guide their decisions tomorrow. But if you spend time talking about my hypothetical scumbuddy I'd love you to try and spend at least 50% as much time talking about who to target when I flip town so that way I can try and engage with the conversation in the moments before someone hammers me. (BTW - I do still want to talk and see if I Can contribute to discussion since when I flip people might actually LISTEN to me for once - so if someone hammers me FOS FOS FOS from beyond the grave)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:24 am UTC

If Madge is town my suspicion of Bessie returns. LaserGuy is still suspect mostly by PoE. Hari is an interesting case. He has taken his townie credit for voting PW and basically dropped his analysis and scumhunting.

@Hari: Why have you not been keeping up your point system and lynch priority list?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:29 am UTC

@Somitomi: I can argue against the validity of specific evidence without changing my conclusion. I'm trying to weigh all evidence not support a specific conclusion. I still think Flicky is likely town for the same reason Sabrar does.

A scum team of Flicky-Hari is an interesting possibility. That would certainly explain Hari's push for NL if the wagon was between two scum. A bit too blatant though, and Flicky's claim did sound sincere.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:47 am UTC

Don't hammer yet please. I haven't had a chance to read the last page and a half (or finish my read post).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:36 am UTC

Unofficial votals:

BoomFrog (1) : bessie
flicky1991 (1) : cemper93
Madge (4) : BoomFrog, jimbobmacdoodle, LaserGuy, Sabrar

Not voting: flicky1991, Madge, Hari Seldon, somitomi

6 votes to hammer


I just got home and skimmed the thread to check the votals. I haven’t had time to read yet. I will be very suspicious if someone hammers before I have an opportunity to post.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:41 am UTC

bessie wrote:No, your choice of wording was too deliberate. It’s something you have been implicitly pushing for a long time, that Madge is only excited to play when she is PR. You never wanted to throw the alternative out there as an option, never wanted that possibility in the back of people’s minds
BoomFrog wrote: We can get into the other two issues after Madge claims.
Reminder to BoomFrog that Madge has claimed, so he may now come back to this.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Your soulreads are blinding you;
Your tunneling is blinding you. :D But I think we've talked about this before.
Perhaps. Why are you unwilling to consider BoomFrog?

BoomFrog wrote: @Bessie: I just wanted to make sure i wasn't misunderstanding (and remove any wiggle room for scum!Bessie to change her story). So you are so convinced that Madge is scum that you don't need to lynch her and instead you want to jump to lynching her suspected partner (me or LaserGuy). And my pressure on her to claim is some scheme to out the doctor (even though as Sabrar pointed out doctor doesn't fit with Madge's behavior.)
I don’t need any wiggle room. And I won’t be changing my story. But just to be clear: I believe Madge is scum. I believe you are scum, for many reasons including but not limited to your interactions with Madge. My scum read of you holds regardless of Madge’s flip. If Madge flips town, I will be taking a closer look at LaserGuy on D3. If Madge flips scum you might have me all to yourself.

BoomFrog wrote: Why would you not just vote Madge first and if she is indeed scum then vote me tomorrow?
Madge doesn’t need any more votes right now. I’m using my vote to signal my intent. I don’t want there to be any misunderstandings on D3 about where my suspicions lie.

Should Madge flip scum, you should be careful about using “bessie wasn’t voting for Madge at the end of D2” as an excuse to attack me. You already used “bessie wasn’t voting for Peaceful Whale at the end of D1” to attack me D2, and it will be less effective if that is all you can come up with two days in a row.

BoomFrog wrote: Sigh, no probably not. Her behavior is so frustrating. But I guess I've made her paranoid from previous games.
No. Don’t try to make this “bessie is only scumreading me because of previous games”. May I inquire as to which previous games are you referring? Crossover? I had a solid scum read on you D4 of crossover, and you killed me for it. I am scum reading you this game because of your scummy content in this game.

Madge wrote:i'm not sure if i get voted off or not but i definitely have people hammering on me the whole time unless i have a good claim or something (let me double check my PM - nope, still not doctor, sigh!), or, well, Sabrar just decides to defend me like the upstanding citizen he is.
Madge, you’re the one that offered to claim on D1. Why are you surprised that people found it suspicious when you decided not to claim?

somitomi wrote:cemper93

Why are you so sure Madge is town?
I would be interested in your answer to this too. Do you have anything to support a town read of Madge, or is it based entirely on flicky being scum?

Madge wrote:I'm accepting my fate, but can you guys please post some analyses for "if madge is town"?
I’ll think about this, but right now I would be suspicious of cemper for his unsupported town read of you, and BoomFrog for this:
BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:Still reading BoomFrog as woof on D1 until this post:
BoomFrog wrote: @Sabrar: Do you really need more? I don't.
This is where I started leaning woof woof on BoomFrog, not as just for his quick acceptance of Madge’s claim, but more for calling out Sabrar for not immediately doing the same.
So to be clear, if I turn out to be justified in my Madge read then I'm back to Woof?


BoomFrog wrote: If Madge is town my suspicion of Bessie returns. LaserGuy is still suspect mostly by PoE. Hari is an interesting case. He has taken his townie credit for voting PW and basically dropped his analysis and scumhunting.
Reminder – you, jimbob, and LaserGuy gave him that townie credit by narrowing the potential lynch pool to non-Peaceful Whale voters only.

I'll try to get some additional content posted tonight. I will be available at deadline.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:50 am UTC

I offered to claim in the event of my impending voteoff, which I did on D2 when it was actually a possibility. I don't think there's anything suspicious about that. People were even telling me not to claim D1. I at least hopefully got scum quaking in their boots about whether to kill me or not. (Probably not, but a girl can dream!)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:21 am UTC

bessie wrote:
bessie wrote:No, your choice of wording was too deliberate. It’s something you have been implicitly pushing for a long time, that Madge is only excited to play when she is PR. You never wanted to throw the alternative out there as an option, never wanted that possibility in the back of people’s minds
BoomFrog wrote: We can get into the other two issues after Madge claims.
Reminder to BoomFrog that Madge has claimed, so he may now come back to this.
So, you were saying that in the above quote I was trying to mentally manipulate town into accepting a Madge PR claim. However, Madge has in fact claimed VT and I have in fact not tried to vere town away from lynching her. So it seems your theory is completely wrong.

Yet, I suspect this result still somehow confirms that I am scum.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:17 am UTC

bessie wrote:Why are you unwilling to consider BoomFrog?
I considered BoomFrog for a long time. However his explanation here makes sense and is consistent with how town!BoomFrog would have behaved.

@BoomFrog: just to clear something up, you start your explanation with "To actually answer your question." What question were you referring here?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:25 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Even though this is going to look like wine at this point, I'm going to put this out there for reference later.

If Madge is mafia, I think Hari Seldon is the third scum. I think that scum may have found a breadcrumb from Vicarin D1 and were pushing No Lynch on D1 to try to kill an unclaimed PR.
This is very thin. Again, you start from the assumption that he is the third scum and explain his actions from that pov.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:35 am UTC

bessie wrote:[quote="somitomi, to me," ]Why are you so sure Madge is town? [/quote]
I would be interested in your answer to this too. Do you have anything to support a town read of Madge, or is it based entirely on flicky being scum?[/quote][/quote]
It's mostly the latter, and I think I've said as much.

Madge's tone also seems genuine, particularly today with the wagon on her. On the other hand, of course, most everyone's tone in this game seems genuine to me at this point, and that I misread Sabrar based on tone doesn't improve my confidence in my tone reads. Therefore, that's mostly small icing on the cake of my rational argument for why she's not scum (i. e. that her and flicky aren't a team).

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby cemper93 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:41 am UTC

moody7277 wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
moody7277 wrote:PW: seems very twitchy. Also playing off BoomFrog a bit with "meowing". Has other content besides that, so I'm probably not going to vote him today.
This is just wrong.


The part about the twitchy maybe, but I stand by the rest of it. Post by post on PW:

Spoiler:
Post 1: some setup spec. interpreted some of the random votes as serious, which upon review seems to be more the case than usual.
Post 2: posits PR scenario.
Post 3: meows
Post 4: meows
Post 5: fluff
Post 6: question for cemper on his previous experience. given how new PW is, obviously he wouldn't know cemper's played here before
Post 7: realizes this point in post 6
Post 8: woof related
Post 9: reads list. theorizes Sabrar-LaserGuy team and exclusive or regarding BoomFrog and cemper.
Post 10: fluff
Post 11: fluff
Post 12: response to Laserguy on Sabrar's meta
Post 13: respones to Hari's post
Post 14: trying to interpret a post by cemper
Post 15: reply to Hari's clarification
Post 16: fluff, seems to be about BoomFrog
Post 17: question to Vicarin
Post 18: RL stuff
Post 19: serious analysis, concluding with BF being town
Post 20: requests clarification from bessie
Post 21: RL stuff


Posts 3-5 and posts 11&12, were where I was getting the twitchy part.

Why did moody post this?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:43 am UTC

Madge wrote:I at least hopefully got scum quaking in their boots about whether to kill me or not.
Why would that be important if you're vanilla? Only PRs have particular incentive to ensure the night kill doesn't land on them.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:53 am UTC

Also, why is half of Madge's D1 content just an attack on the argument that PW is scum because he posted late? I understand you believe that Madge was trying to save her buddy, but TBQH, Madge isn't nearly a sufficiently bad scum player for her to link herself to her buddy like this.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:54 am UTC

Plus this lynch is way too easy anyway.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:12 am UTC

flicky1991 wrote:
Madge wrote:I at least hopefully got scum quaking in their boots about whether to kill me or not.
Why would that be important if you're vanilla? Only PRs have particular incentive to ensure the night kill doesn't land on them.


Ahh, but I'm running with the opposite incentive!

VT has (say) three roles:

1) Don't have town vote you off

2) Find out who is scum and vote them off

3) Get scum to kill you instead of a power role

I'm failing at 1), and 2) has never been my strong suit. So I softclaimed a PR to try and achieve 3). I wanted to look like a townie doctor or watcher or whatever enough to draw the kill but didn't work this time.

Basically as PR my personal win condition is to get a useful result for town with my power; as VT my personal win condition is to be killed in the night. Those are what I consider the most "helpful" situations for me. Someone like Bessie or Sabrar probably has a personal win condition more like "catch scum in a slip" or "convince someone they're wrong", but we're all different.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:12 am UTC

cemper93 wrote:Plus this lynch is way too easy anyway.
This lynch was waiting to happen since D1.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:15 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@BoomFrog: just to clear something up, you start your explanation with "To actually answer your question." What question were you referring here?

LaserGuy's question, "why did Sabrar claim?"
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:16 am UTC

But you explained your actions, not mine.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:08 am UTC

On the bus into work. I'll be online and will try to answer questions if I can, but as noted last night, don't expect much from me before deadline.

On the "if Madge is town" topic, this is a fair question. Pairs I would look at are LaserGuy/flicky (would scum bus their buddy?), flicky/Hari (if flicky is scum, the main reason I moved Hari to townie disappears), BoomFrog/flicky (could explain why BoomFrog pushed the PW wagon the way he did). LaserGuy/Hari (mostly by PoE). I don't think bessie would have attacked PW the way she did and I believe cemper's slip to be genuine. I vaguely recall there being a flicky town-slip too, but I can't remember what it was, so will review that later.

Somitomi, I know I've not been as active as I have been in other games, but I appear to have dropped off your radar completely. Surprised nobody else brought this up...
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:27 am UTC

Laser

I like a lot of what Laser has said toDay; in particular, his cases on Bessie and Sabrar. I think Sabrar is incorrect with how similar his play here has been to Crossover. I also had that thought and think Laser's point of view is valid. ((There are differences though that he didn't point out or pick up on)). Despite how consistent of a Scum read Laser has been for me, I have genuinely considered that I may just be tunnel minded and consequently have gone through his posts from the point of view that he is Town; however, I keep coming back to his "*squints* is this a slip" post and cannot get over it.

I have done my best to explain why this is scummy, but I feel there is more to my feeling that I have not been able to express, because no one else seems to think this is as suspicious as I do. This may stem from the unique perspective I have of being the one to have pushed PW for the (what I thought to have been) slip he made in Halloween, and of having observed the reactions to it then. I vehemently felt that PW's grammar mistake was a scum slip in that game. Laser had waited to comment on it, and when doing so, responded to it offhandedly, giving the impression that he did not think it was that condemning. I understand that LaserGuy was technically Indy who whose goal was to get NKed, but his strategy for doing so was to play as a Townie. Super Townie to be exact. Laser did decide (in Gojoe) that he wanted to swing the lynch away from PW, but this was later after scum reading PW for another post.

Regardless, the most important point is that Laser was definitely aware of the situation that game. Even if he were not playing exactly as he would have if he were Town, he was in the game and knew about PW's grammar blunder. He should have known, therefore, that such a thing is not reliably alignment indicative for PW (as PW flipped Town). That's what makes his reaction to PW's somewhat ambiguous (it wasn't ambiguous to me) statement this game seem so unnatural. I think it is very likely that Laser, knowing that PW was Scum, thought that PW had slipped and wanted to get out ahead of it; especially knowing that PW had been called out and lynched for something similar just recently.

Madge

My opinion of Madge did not change after Sabrar's claim. I was not under the impression that she was Watcher as Boom and Sabrar were. Based off of what I know about Madge (from her self analyses) and what she finds enjoyable about the game (roles and mechanics as opposed to arguments of intent), the impression I had gotten from her play was excited PR. This was even before she began alluding to being a PR. I do think she is Scum now though, but I'm leaving this here since Laser had asked me for my read before her claim. I do not think that Town Madge would have acted in self preservation as she did if she is not actually a PR (Doc). The negative risks and consequences of pretending to be a PR far outweigh the potential benefit of her claimed reason of beer, also. In hindsight, it is very obvious now that Sabrar's reaction to Madge's Doc advice was coming from the point of view of Watcher; and it is very likely that Scum had already picked up on that even before Sabrar claimed.

(((Beer Related Side Note: You have not had beer, until you have had this. Club Bier #02 in particular!)))


JimBob

Most of my suspicions of JimBob stem from yesterDay. There were a number of times that I felt that he was deliberately misinterpreting my wording (stale, known watcher, continuous progression, and the bit about my vibe comment). It did not feel like he was actually trying to read me or understand my point of view, which is interesting considering this:
Firstly, I don't like not understanding the words of what somebody has said, and I will often ask for clarification, even if it won't necessarily help me determine any particular players alignment.
Each of those examples could have been cleared up through clarification. Furthermore, when I did clarify, Jim continued to maintain his original point rather than relent. Because of this, I feel that Jim's reading of me was not genuine.

That being said, while it is the feeling I have gotten, I do not think that is a very strong point against him. Jim is very difficult to read based on his words alone. I believe that his behavior near the deadline yesterDay, however, is a stronger tell. This is even more so with Scum Madge. Even the most self aware Scum players are limited in action. This is what I was alluding to d1 with regard to BoomFrog. Scum has to mislynch to win the game. This is the one fact that cannot be avoided. So when it comes down to it, no matter how Townie of a voice a Scum player has, they cannot avoid unveiling at least some of their true intentions at some point in the game. This is also why I believe the time period closest to the deadline often contains the most useful information. During this time, Scum have to work the hardest to push their agenda. Furthermore, they have to react more quickly and are thus more likely to slip. Jim avoided voting both PW and Madge at the deadline despite being adamantly against No Lynching. His actions did not line up with his words and lead me to suspect that he was Scum trapped between a PW and a Madge place.

That being said again, I still think Laser is most likely the third partner, and I can think of alternate reasons for Jim's behavior. I was going to go into Bessie as well before Madge's claim, but I don't think that is necessary. I feel strongly that the remaining scum is one of the above.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:37 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:If Madge is town my suspicion of Bessie returns. LaserGuy is still suspect mostly by PoE. Hari is an interesting case. He has taken his townie credit for voting PW and basically dropped his analysis and scumhunting.
Interesting. You think that is a bad thing? I would have thought you'd understand this behavior.
@Hari: Why have you not been keeping up your point system and lynch priority list?
With the pacing of the game, it was too difficult to keep up with the game doing page by page analysis. Plus my lynch order began to diverge with my internal feelings.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Suzaku » Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:42 am UTC

Current Votals:

Madge - 4 (jimbobmacdoodle, BoomFrog, LaserGuy, Sabrar)
BoomFrog - 1 (bessie)
flicky1991 - 1 (cemper93)

Not voting: Hari Seldon, Madge, flicky1991, somitomi

With 10 alive hammer requires 6 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
Deadline in about 6 hours.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:45 am UTC

:x
Hari Seldon wrote: I began a read post earlier today and will finish it when I return home.

LaserGuy wrote:I think we're done here if somebody feels like hammering.


:?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:09 am UTC

vote: BoomFrog

Consider me gone until deadline, guys

I appreciate people making "if madge is town" reads, hopefully they'll come in handy sometime?
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:54 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:That being said, while it is the feeling I have gotten, I do not think that is a very strong point against him. Jim is very difficult to read based on his words alone. I believe that his behavior near the deadline yesterDay, however, is a stronger tell. This is even more so with Scum Madge. Even the most self aware Scum players are limited in action. This is what I was alluding to d1 with regard to BoomFrog. Scum has to mislynch to win the game. This is the one fact that cannot be avoided. So when it comes down to it, no matter how Townie of a voice a Scum player has, they cannot avoid unveiling at least some of their true intentions at some point in the game. This is also why I believe the time period closest to the deadline often contains the most useful information. During this time, Scum have to work the hardest to push their agenda. Furthermore, they have to react more quickly and are thus more likely to slip. Jim avoided voting both PW and Madge at the deadline despite being adamantly against No Lynching. His actions did not line up with his words and lead me to suspect that he was Scum trapped between a PW and a Madge place.
I agree with your points about scum strategy and play here, and I accept that my refusal to vote PW looks suspicious in light of his flip, but I think you've got yourself mixed up. Madge wasn't the alternative wagon to PW, so why was scum!me trapped between a PW and a Madge place, when I could have chosen to vote for flicky?

Here's what happened from my point of view from when I got up on the day of deadline. At that point, I wanted you lynched, because you were my scummiest read. I would also have been happy to vote either Madge or cemper. The only wagon of any note at that point was on flicky, who had just claimed VT. I liked the tone of his claim, as noted elsewhere, so was happy with where my vote was, because others at that point might have agreed with me and switched their own votes. Madge refused to claim, and there was no wagon on her before the deadline, and I didn't want to risk lynching anybody who hadn't claimed, in case we accidentally lynched a PR, so I didn't see her as a viable alternative. Sabrar suggested cemper, which I was happy with, so switched my vote, noting that cemper also said he'd claim if needed. I refused to switch to PW when his wagon formed, because of the aforementioned, "don't lynch unclaimed people" point. By this point, it didn't look like there were any alternatives to lynching him or flicky, but at all times, I didn't like either wagon, so didn't switch my vote. If I had switched, it would have been to flicky, but as noted at deadline, that would have resulted in a tied vote, which I didn't want to be the cause of in case it led to No Lynch.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby somitomi » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:02 am UTC

Madge wrote:I'm accepting my fate, but can you guys please post some analyses for "if madge is town"? That way I can offer my thoughts and maybe you can give me an idea that will spark something in me. The "madge is scum, hari is her scumbuddy" line of thinking will be great for you guys to do tomorrow if I flip scum, but from my point of view, as town who is facing her death, there's not much I can add to the discussion if it's going to be centred around identifying my scumbuddy. I mean, I can say, "yeah so-and-so seems scummy but he's not my scumbuddy because I'm town" but that's not really that helpful.

At this point a Madge/LaserGuy team is unlikely, but otherwise I'm suspicious of LaserGuy and this looks terrible in case of town!Madge:
LaserGuy wrote:I think we're done here if somebody feels like hammering.


cemper93 wrote:Also, why is half of Madge's D1 content just an attack on the argument that PW is scum because he posted late? I understand you believe that Madge was trying to save her buddy, but TBQH, Madge isn't nearly a sufficiently bad scum player for her to link herself to her buddy like this.

This is actually a fairly good point.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Somitomi, I know I've not been as active as I have been in other games, but I appear to have dropped off your radar completely. Surprised nobody else brought this up...

Apologies, I went to bed shortly after posting and then I realised I forgot to put you into the suspicious-ish group.

ninja'd by jimbob
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