Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

For your simulated organized crime needs.

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cemper93
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:11 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
cemper93 wrote:Scum!flicky knows that after a VT claim some townie would raise the point that it was optimal scum strategy to always claim a PR.
This is what i don't agree with. There is no guarantee that it will happen and there is no guarantee that the townie would be as forceful about it as I was. It has much more risk in it than a quasi-last minute claim where scum!flicky might even hope that the real PR is already asleep (especially if PW truly found a breadcrumb from Vicarin).
Then I understood you correctly and still think you're wrong. There was bound to be somebody who'd say it. This isn't exactly rocket science.

Also: if Vicarin left a crumb, why claim cop? Scum's strategy when claiming PR is to trade the claimed PR for a scum. That's only an OK deal for them at best. NKing the PR for free and not getting lynched has much more value, and it makes this shoddy deal unnecessary. What I'm saying is, flicky had no reason to claim cop if he already knew who the cop was. He could have claimed watcher, but why hurry? Better live now and sort out the watcher later.

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cemper93
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:14 pm UTC

Regarding PW on Madge: I stated above why based on PW's read, flicky xor Madge is scum. Because flicky is scum, Madge is therefore town.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:15 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:Also: if Vicarin left a crumb, why claim cop? Scum's strategy when claiming PR is to trade the claimed PR for a scum. That's only an OK deal for them at best. NKing the PR for free and not getting lynched has much more value, and it makes this shoddy deal unnecessary. What I'm saying is, flicky had no reason to claim cop if he already knew who the cop was. He could have claimed watcher, but why hurry? Better live now and sort out the watcher later.
Because it's guaranteed survival (and a mislynch) D1, while otherwise he could be cc-d. But it's a moot point anyway.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:17 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:Regarding PW on Madge: I stated above why based on PW's read, flicky xor Madge is scum. Because flicky is scum, Madge is therefore town.
Is flicky the same way scum as I was? :?

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Hari Seldon
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:28 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Hari Seldon: we won't know if we lynched correctly until the beginning of D3. You cannot use "if we lynch town we won't use the plan" as an argument.
That's not the argument at all.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:13 am UTC

@Hari,

PR claim notwithstanding, what is your read on moody/Madge at present?

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Hari Seldon
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:26 am UTC

Actually, Madge should go ahead and claim. Scum should be able to deduce who Doc is regardless.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:34 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:Purple Version?
Spoiler:
I think we should lynch LaserGuy and Madge claim toMorrow. If Laser is Scum, then we are set. If Laser is Town, then we will have had another Night without scum knowing who the Doc is. On the other hand, if Madge is Doc CCed, it would be more favorable to use Sabrar's tracker plan. I will work this out, actually:

Madge is Scum

No Claim:

Laser Scum, Game set toMorrow.
Laser Town, Extra Doc Night. Did not use Sabrar's Tracker Plan.

Claim (and lynched):
Laser Scum, Laser Tracked. Game set.
Laser Town, Laser Tracked. Laser Cleared. Scum chooses to target either Doc or Laser.


Madge is Town

No Claim:

Laser Scum, Extra Doc Night. Did not use Sabrar's plan.
Laser Town, Extra Doc Night. Did not use Sabrar's plan.

Claim (and not lynched):

Laser Scum, Laser Lynched.
Laser Town, Laser Lynched. Doc outted.

Green = best outcome given the circumstance +1
Purple = equally favorable/unfavorable compared to the alternative +0
Orange = worst outcome given the circumstance -1

Madge Claims: +1
Madge Does Not Claim: +2

So yes, the expected outcome of Madge not claiming is a little bit better, although both scenarios have positive expected values. However, if Madge is Doc, claims, and we lynch Town (I used Laser as the alternate lynch because he is the current runner up contender, but you can replace him with anyone else), then we would have went down the worst path. There is one more thing about this as well, but it will be better if I keep it unvoiced.


I've been trying to figure out what pinged me about this (aside from the "lynch LaserGuy" part).

The problem is that Madge's role is only unknown for Town right now. If Madge is Town, it is more than likely that she is the doctor. It is quite unlikely that Madge is VT pretending to be a PR given her play this game. If Madge is mafia, then she will be counterclaimed by the real doctor, and we trade, at worst, one PR for one mafia, which is a pretty good deal in this position. Lynching me ahead of Madge doesn't resolve anything. If Madge is mafia, then the real doctor will be forced to counterclaim her tomorrow anyway. If Madge is Town, mafia already knows she is very likely a PR and can NK her if they want to. Doc!Madge doesn't hurt Town by claiming--if anything, it's probably better for her to claim than not if she's the doctor, since then Madge/Sabrar could potentially cross-protect each other.

All that lynching me without a claim does is gives scum a free mislynch and a free shot at one of our PRs.

[ninja by Hari]

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Hari Seldon
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:48 am UTC

Yes, you're right. Scratch my plan.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:15 am UTC

...............

I'm surprised you agreed so readily to that last bit considering how much you've been tunneling me this game.

FoS Hari

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:24 am UTC

I'd like to avoid discussing how to react to Madge's potential claims until after she claims. Discussing it is just helping scum!Madge choose her claim more carefully.

That said, if she claims doctor and someone else is the real doctor, don't counter claim right away. We may choose to resolve things differently.
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Hari Seldon
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:31 am UTC

Clearly, I was referring to the fact that the plan was bad.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:04 am UTC

I am not ignoring your question btw, Laser. I began a read post earlier today and will finish it when I return home.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:18 am UTC

bessie wrote:No, your choice of wording was too deliberate. It’s something you have been implicitly pushing for a long time, that Madge is only excited to play when she is PR. You never wanted to throw the alternative out there as an option, never wanted that possibility in the back of people’s minds.
BoomFrog wrote: Let's discuss this more after Madge claims.
Noted. You need more time to work out a plausible response.

BoomFrog wrote:Yes, that is an interesting reason why I should be voting LaserGuy instead of Madge. But why are you voting for LaserGuy?
Because I have not yet decided if LaserGuy is her partner or if he is just incorrect.

BoomFrog wrote:I'd like to avoid discussing how to react to Madge's potential claims until after she claims. Discussing it is just helping scum!Madge choose her claim more carefully.

That said, if she claims doctor and someone else is the real doctor, don't counter claim right away. We may choose to resolve things differently.
Oh, ok. Got it.

Unvote: LaserGuy
Vote: BoomFrog.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:43 am UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Yes, that is an interesting reason why I should be voting LaserGuy instead of Madge. But why are you voting for LaserGuy?
Because I have not yet decided if LaserGuy is her partner or if he is just incorrect.

We can get into the other two issues after Madge claims. But I don't understand this. Did your vote not mean "this person is the one I think is most likely scum"? Can you state clearly, what % chance do you think Madge is scum? If this has recently changed what changed it? Who do you think her partner is if she is scum.

You can answer the same questions with respect to LaserGuy and me if you have time.
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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:57 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:That said, if she claims doctor and someone else is the real doctor, don't counter claim right away. We may choose to resolve things differently.
No, this is terrible advice. We need clarity about the situation, not additional wine. If scum goes after the doctor that means somitomi and me are not getting killed and our results are more important.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:25 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:That said, if she claims doctor and someone else is the real doctor, don't counter claim right away. We may choose to resolve things differently.
No, this is terrible advice. We need clarity about the situation, not additional wine. If scum goes after the doctor that means somitomi and me are not getting killed and our results are more important.


Yeah, I agree with Sabrar (shocking, I know). This makes no sense. We don't even know if the doctor's power actually works.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:27 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote: Who do you think her partner is if she is scum.

Really BoomFrog? Was my post really that long that you were unable to read to the end?


woof
vicarin
bessie
somitomi
Sabrar

Hari Seldon
flicky1991

cemper93
jimbobmacdoodle

LaserGuy

BoomFrog
Madge
Peaceful Whale
Grrr

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:37 am UTC

bessie wrote:Your soulreads are blinding you;
Your tunneling is blinding you. :D But I think we've talked about this before.

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flicky1991
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:50 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:...............

I'm surprised you agreed so readily to that last bit considering how much you've been tunneling me this game.

FoS Hari
Why are people so happy to suspect others based on them having changed their opinion, in this game? Town should be willing to listen to others and admit when they're proven wrong.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:52 am UTC

I'm vanilla town. All the softclaiming was an attempt to get scum to think about killing me rather than a PR, since my scummy meta means that I'm not a popular NK target. I am well aware that's also what scum would do to keep their claim options open and buy some time; but that's wine.

So.... I hope you're happy with the outcome of my claim being what apparently nobody really suspected?

BESSIE YOU DID A WOOF TO GRR LIST I AM SO HAPPY <3

ninja: I agree that LaserGuy thinking Hari is scummy for listening to him is weird.
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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:58 am UTC

Thank you Madge. My vote stays where it is.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:01 am UTC

Madge wrote:I'm vanilla town. All the softclaiming was an attempt to get scum to think about killing me rather than a PR, since my scummy meta means that I'm not a popular NK target. I am well aware that's also what scum would do to keep their claim options open and buy some time; but that's wine.

So.... I hope you're happy with the outcome of my claim being what apparently nobody really suspected?


Well, the good news is that the doctor doesn't have the counterclaim you. The bad news is that we have to lynch you anyway.

ninja: I agree that LaserGuy thinking Hari is scummy for listening to him is weird.


No, you just missed what I was actually referring to.
LaserGuy wrote:All that lynching me without a claim does is gives scum a free mislynch and a free shot at one of our PRs.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:57 am UTC

I, for one, haven't believed Madge to be PR for a while now. Not going to link back to them, since I'm phone posting, but there was one or two posts during D2 that clearly indicated that she was afraid of being lynched, which PR!Madge would have no reason to be.

I still believe Madge to be scum. Whilst I could buy that town!Madge might do what she claimed, it's perfectly plausible that scum!Madge was playing that way to convince town that she should not be lynched (or forced to claim). Combine that with the scummy read I already have of her, and that there's at least one reasonable buddy for her, and I'm still happy with my vote.

BoomFrog, I don't understand your delayed counter-claim suggestion. It would have denied us clarity on who to lynch, and therefore a big chance of a mislynch. The information we would have gotten from vote analysis of the later, more panicked train might have proved useful, but could just as easily be generated on a later day.
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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:04 am UTC

I think last scum is in {cemper, LaserGuy}.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:40 pm UTC

I was considering that we could use the tracker plan to verify the doctor claim but I agree now it probably would have not been worth it. Anyway, my vote stays.

@Bessie: I just wanted to make sure i wasn't misunderstanding (and remove any wiggle room for scum!Bessie to change her story). So you are so convinced that Madge is scum that you don't need to lynch her and instead you want to jump to lynching her suspected partner (me or LaserGuy). And my pressure on her to claim is some scheme to out the doctor (even though as Sabrar pointed out doctor doesn't fit with Madge's behavior.)

Why would you not just vote Madge first and if she is indeed scum then vote me tomorrow?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:41 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I think last scum is in {cemper, LaserGuy}.

I think Cemper's night chat misunderstanding is genuine. I'd say Bessie is most likely then LaserGuy.
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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:54 pm UTC

bessie wrote:bessie – Labrador retriever
Vicarin – enthusiastic newbie town
BoomFrog – wise dog
Hari Seldon – observant non-newbie
jimbobmacdoodle – overwhelmed townie
flicky1991 – pretty bird
Sabrar – fluffy puppy
cemper93 – still thinking about him
LaserGuy- still thinking about him
Madge – inexperience challenged scum
Peaceful Whale - newbie scum
somitomi – newbie scum

bessie tunnelled 3 players on D1. Do you think it would contain both her scum-buddies?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:03 pm UTC

Sigh, no probably not. Her behavior is so frustrating. But I guess I've made her paranoid from previous games.
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cemper93
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:16 pm UTC

Now that Sabrar has turned out to be confirmed town, flicky is my one remaining solid scum read. I still don't think that a Madge/flicky team is possible, and therefore am not going to vote Madge. I'm also not willing to lynch bessie, although at this point, even Sabrar appears to have understood that she's not scum anyway. I'm going to attempt to re-read later to re-evaluate the remaining players and finalize my vote, but because deadline is approaching, I'll just, right now, at this point feeling the drudgery of repetition

Vote: flicky

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:19 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:Now that Sabrar has turned out to be confirmed town, flicky is my one remaining solid scum read. I still don't think that a Madge/flicky team is possible, and therefore am not going to vote Madge. I'm also not willing to lynch bessie, although at this point, even Sabrar appears to have understood that she's not scum anyway. I'm going to attempt to re-read later to re-evaluate the remaining players and finalize my vote, but because deadline is approaching, I'll just, right now, at this point feeling the drudgery of repetition

Vote: flicky


Why are you so confident bessie is Town?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby wam » Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:21 pm UTC

Current Votals:


Madge - 4 (jimbobmacdoodle, BoomFrog, Laserguy, Sabrar)
BoomFrog - 1 (bessie)
Flicky1991 - 1 (Cemper93)

Not voting: Hari Seldon, Madge, flicky1991, somitomi

With 10 alive hammer requires 6 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
Deadline in just under 1 days.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:41 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Why are you so confident bessie is Town?
Her D1 interactions with PeacefulWhale make scum!bessie exceedingly unlikely. I explained that in more detail in like the second-to-last post I made, so why are you asking?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:07 pm UTC

I'd vote Madge, if it wasn't for the fact that that would be putting her at L-1. I really am clueless at this point as to who the third would be, though.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:44 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:Yes, I was aware of that and (with the exam thing finally over) I'll read through D2 to get back on track.
Please do this before deadline.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:49 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Why are you so confident bessie is Town?
Her D1 interactions with PeacefulWhale make scum!bessie exceedingly unlikely. I explained that in more detail in like the second-to-last post I made, so why are you asking?


Because I read those same interactions as making scum!bessie fairly likely, especially if Madge ends up flipping Town.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:13 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:especially if Madge ends up flipping Town.
You think she will?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby somitomi » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:22 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
somitomi wrote:Yes, I was aware of that and (with the exam thing finally over) I'll read through D2 to get back on track.
Please do this before deadline.

Yes, sorry, it's in progress, today was unexpectedly busy.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:42 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:especially if Madge ends up flipping Town.
You think she will?


I doubt it. But I've been told that I'm occasionally overconfident in my reads, so I'm trying to temper my expectations a little bit.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:28 pm UTC

Keep those expectations tempered; I'm so annoyed I managed to get myself voted off the island again.

I'm like an alternate universe bessie: haven't been scum for like a year, but instead of everyone finding me townie as a result everyone finds me scummy :lol:

I actually considered using my dying breaths to claim scum and then when I flip town you can analyse scum's reactions to it, but then I figured I'd get hammered too quickly to get reactions from scum. But I thought it was an interesting thought that flies in the face of "townies don't lie" - but I don't know if people would find such a thing useful.
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