Shakespeare Mafia III - Curtain Call

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LaserGuy
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:22 pm UTC

@mpolo:

Aren't there 8 players left?
LaserGuy, SDK, SirGabriel, plytho, Gopher, Sabrar, kalira, and dimochka?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:23 pm UTC

@all: please do not vote prematurely. I suspect mpolo used this as the starting point for the setup, which would mean that the supernatural team could also have 3 members so this could be MYLO (even though I don't think the setup would be balanced that way).

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:25 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:@mpolo:

Aren't there 8 players left?
LaserGuy, SDK, SirGabriel, plytho, Gopher, Sabrar, kalira, and dimochka?

SDK died but you left out Madge so overall we should be 8.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby mpolo » Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:35 pm UTC

Yes. 8 players, 5 to hammer. Sorry. It is likely MYPLO (mislynch and probably lose).
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:43 pm UTC

So most likely 5-3 setup, with only SirGabriel being confirmed Town. At some point No Lynch will probably be the right play but we can talk about this later.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:43 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@all: please do not vote prematurely. I suspect mpolo used this as the starting point for the setup, which would mean that the supernatural team could also have 3 members so this could be MYLO (even though I don't think the setup would be balanced that way).


That seems like a pretty rough setup. If that's what it is, then if there's even one indie in the game, town has already lost.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:55 pm UTC

Depends on the indie. Personally I think there is none. However this looks like scum asking the indie to reveal themselves so they can win today.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:15 pm UTC

Unless it's exactly {Gopher of Pern, LaserGuy, plytho} then one of my soulreads can't be true. Very sad. So I guess we lynch LaserGuy today?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:37 pm UTC

If LaserGuy is Town then this setup is unbalanced as hell.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby plytho » Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:27 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:So most likely 5-3 setup, with only SirGabriel being confirmed Town. At some point No Lynch will probably be the right play but we can talk about this later.
I don't understand how no lynch could be a good play? Are you hinting at something?

Sabrar wrote:Unless it's exactly {Gopher of Pern, LaserGuy, plytho} then one of my soulreads can't be true. Very sad. So I guess we lynch LaserGuy today?
That seems like the most likely course of action. But I'll have to reread LaserGuy first. I didn't give him much attention yesterday because of his link to Bard. Right now I don't really see how he could be town though.

I wonder why the guild didn't kill LaserGuy N1. There is nothing about a vote penalty or anything like that in the pm and he's a liability to their team.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:44 pm UTC

plytho wrote:I don't understand how no lynch could be a good play? Are you hinting at something?
Math. Imagine a game without powers, only 2 factions (town, scum) and tied votals resulting in No Lynch. Suppose setup is already reduced to 3 townies + 1 scum with no confirmed townies. If Town lynches incorrectly, scum NK-s someone, setup is reduced to 1-1 with scum winning. Now suppose town decides to No Lynch. Scum kills someone, setup is 2-1 and town has (theoretically) a bigger chance to correctly lynch scum because there are less suspects.
This scenario can be expanded, the main take-away is that given only 2 factions and an even-number of players then No Lynch is mathematically the correct play at some point. Now if there is a confirmed townie then this does not apply because scum just kills him and nothing is gained. Also if there are powers in play then those might also change the equation.
Summary: 5-3 is the same as 4-3 in the terms that we always must lynch correctly, however with 5-3 No Lynch is an avenue to gain more results and reduce ambiguity in the setup. Of course we don't have to use this right now (in fact I don't think we should), 4-2 and 3-1 are also possibilities.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:29 pm UTC

Well, I thought it more likely Bard was supernatural, but this was better.

So, either we have wiped out the guild, or there was a successful doctoring.

Just putting together some thoughts here:
If Sabrar is correct regarding the setup:
We have 3 dead from one faction (goon/roleblocker/unroleblockable)
5 dead town (mason/doctor/1shot doc/1shot cop/tracker)
With all docs and cops detecting the opposite faction to the dead one, but the tracker useful against the dead faction.

Therefore, It is likely that in the setup, TTI was rolled for mafia (1 goon, 1 roleblocker, 1 ninja (changed to unroleblockable, and 1 tracker), so we likely have a lot of abilities that are now useless.

Going for the other side, we likely have DDDDC, (1 shot cop, 1 shot doc, and regular doc)which would give us one more wizard (jailkeeper) for the supernatural side. With a possible up to TT for the supernatural mafia, with either a roleblocker or a rolecop for sure.

I'm not sure how useful that all is, but I'll leave it there. Obviously things were changed, as we have vote manipulations and masons.

If we are at 5/3, we're still in trouble. It seems night actions have failed us, but our lynches have been spot on.

I'm a bit suspicious of Kalira atm. Pushing for lynching Laserguy could have been a gamble to remove a town and a guildscum in one blow. If Kalira is supernatural, Laserguy is town. I doubt they would both be scum.

I'm kinda suspicious that Sabrar is still alive. I would have thought Sabrar or Sir Gabriel would have been the obvious NK targets. There was still some suspicion on SDK, far more so than Sabrar. Will have to re-read.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 06, 2017 6:48 am UTC

Lynching correctly 3 times in a row, wiping out an entire scum-team and finding yourself in MYLO is just stupid. Oh well, let's get to work.

@Madge: hiding time is over, if you're Town you need to vote today otherwise scum might be able to mislynch someone in the last minute when you're probably be asleep. Even if they kill you because you have a useful power that means leaving a confirmed Town and other power-roles alive (with only 1 kill available to scum they are unable to take care of every threat to them).

Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm kinda suspicious that Sabrar is still alive. I would have thought Sabrar or Sir Gabriel would have been the obvious NK targets. There was still some suspicion on SDK, far more so than Sabrar. Will have to re-read.

The focus was very much not on either SDK or myself so I'm not sure where you would get this idea. In other news there at least 3 great reasons for scum not killing me. 1 is wifom, 1 is standard scum-play and 1 is mechanically correct decision. You should have at least thought of the latter if you were Town.

Also your setup speculation is not productive and sets the ground for scum to false-claim useless powers.

LaserGuy voted for Town D1 and D2 (D3 is unknown yet), kalira voted for scum D2 and D3 (freezeblade didn't vote D1). What has LaserGuy done to make you think he's more Town than kalira?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:00 am UTC

Yes, the focus yesterday was on the claims around bessie, and Bard being scummy. But still, people had SDK in a probably ok, maybe towny indy basket, whereas you have mostly been in the towny basket. In any case, I only buy your first reason. Please explain your other two reasons?

Pft, they would have come to similar conclusions anyway. We have only had one town person with a guild targetable power. Of course others are out there. I think spelling it out like that will enable town to make it easier to catch out scum if we do happen to claim.

I haven't said that laserguy is more town than kalira. Again you are starting to put words in my mouth. I don't think voting for scum is a good tell in this game now, as it seems one scum team have been killed off, while the other hasn't been touched. Scum would have had just as many reasons to vote for the other scum team.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:14 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:In any case, I only buy your first reason. Please explain your other two reasons?
Standard scum-play is to avoid the most townie-looking players because Doc/Jailer could protect them. Mechanical reason is scum!rolecop (a role that you already have considered) knowing SDK to be Doc against supernatural.

Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm a bit suspicious of Kalira atm. Pushing for lynching Laserguy could have been a gamble to remove a town and a guildscum in one blow. If Kalira is supernatural, Laserguy is town. I doubt they would both be scum.
This in my opinion does not come from someone who would prefer a LaserGuy lynch over kalira. Note the emphasis on scum!kalira while avoiding even mentioning the possibility of scum!LaserGuy.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby mpolo » Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:19 am UTC

Deadline clock. That's Friday evening.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:20 am UTC

Maybe I haven't decided who I want to lynch yet? I haven't looked too closely into Laserguy yet. I had a good feeling about them in day2, and ignored them yesterday in favour of a Bard lynch, so I've yet to address that. It was just the point kalira made yesterday, which stood out to me, as it was almost the exact same point I made in day 2, only with, I believe, much less reason behind it. I was pointing that out, to see what people thought. Instead, you ask a non-sequitur. I wonder why?
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:24 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Instead, you ask a non-sequitur. I wonder why?
I don't think that was non-sequitur. You seemed to be defending LaserGuy, I asked why.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:48 am UTC

I was attacking kalira. Yes, that would mean I'm defending Laserguy, but only by inference. You ignored the whole part about me attacking kalira. Why?
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:01 am UTC

Your whole 'attack' on kalira is just mentioning a possibility that she might have pushed for a double lynch because she is scum. It ignores the possibility that she is right and lynching LaserGuy yesterday would have been a better play. That is not something I would consider as a strong attack that needs a comment from me, however the implications are much more interesting.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:24 am UTC

So you really thought I was defending Laserguy with that comment? Wow....

It was not meant as a strong attack. Just opening up the discussion. And you took it completely out of context, which is something you like to do when you're scum.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:28 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:I'm a bit suspicious of Kalira atm. Pushing for lynching Laserguy could have been a gamble to remove a town and a guildscum in one blow. If Kalira is supernatural, Laserguy is town. I doubt they would both be scum.
This in my opinion does not come from someone who would prefer a LaserGuy lynch over kalira. Note the emphasis on scum!kalira while avoiding even mentioning the possibility of scum!LaserGuy.

Yes, you were defending LaserGuy. No, it wasn't taken out-of-context.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:41 am UTC

You look too deeply into things, and are seeing things that are not there.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:39 pm UTC

Upon re-read interaction between plytho and Gopher of Pern seems natural, not scum vs scum.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:36 pm UTC

I've been debating about this since the start of the day, and I've come to the conclusion that it's probably a good idea: I think the inventor should claim their role and who they gave stuff to and why they gave stuff to them. Don't claim what you gave to who, as that would probably help scum more than town at this point.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:46 pm UTC

Agree with SirGabriel, having more confirmed townies is always good.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby plytho » Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:53 pm UTC

To answer my own question/concern.
plytho wrote:I wonder why the guild didn't kill LaserGuy N1. There is nothing about a vote penalty or anything like that in the pm and he's a liability to their team.

From Bard’s role pm:
Because of your star-crossed love for <redacted>, if he is lynched, you will take your own life. If the Guild decides to kill him, you cannot carry out this kill.


If the guild is {DethStalker, YOLOSWAG, Bard} N1 they’ve already lost DethStalker and Bard claimed LaserGuy as town near the end of D1. Now YOLO and Bard need to pick a target for the night kill. A couple of reasons why they wouldn’t have killed LaserGuy D1:
as a claimed townie he could be protected
With potential supernatural scum!LaserGuy, Bard would be at risk for the lynch D2.
After YOLO was lynched, killing LaserGuy was no longer an option.

If the guild was {DethStalker, YOLOSWAG, Bard, [someone else]} I think if there were four of them they might have taken the risk to kill Laserguy although N1 the concerns above would be in play. N2 only Bard and [someone else] are left so killing LaserGuy is a high risk play either confirming Bard or condemning him. If they have a scum read on LaserGuy at this point they would avoid killing him.

If the guild is {DethStalker, YOLOSWAG, Bard, LaserGuy} killing LaserGuy definitely outs Bard as scum so not an option.

I guess I see why they didn’t kill LaserGuy.

Other thoughts:
SDK was killed by the supernaturals. (‘white as a sheet’)
This means if there’s still guild out there it’s their kill that failed.

If LaserGuy is scum:

A: LaserGuy is the 4th (and last) guild member. His kill failed.
A1: There is a supernatural SK
A2: There is a two man supernatural team

A3 Is 5 + SK a possibility?

B: LaserGuy is supernatural scum (guild is eradicated)
B1: with 1 more member
B2: with 2 more members

B3: could the scum teams be 4-2?

My hope when I started this post was to find some logic to eliminate the possibility of LaserGuy being town (or scum) but I don't think there's anything we can definitely rule out?

Hmm, in the {DethStalker, YOLOSWAG, Bard} scenario, if LaserGuy is supernatural scum, they lost as soon as YOLO was lynched. Bard needed to survive LaserGuy to win the game and there was no way for him to do so. Lynching LaserGuy wasn't an option as Bard would die too, Bard couldn't nightkill LaserGuy and the supernaturals wouldn't kill one of their own. If LaserGuy is town, Bard was in a slightly better position of waiting for the supernaturals to kill LaserGuy.
Might explain this:
DGames | Bard wrote:Hey duders! Sorry I wasn't as motivated to play as I was on D1. There are reasons for this, some which will be made readily apparent, some of which will not.


Right now I still think B2 is most likely, putting us at 5-3 with LaserGuy being one of the 3. Unless evidence supports something else that's how I'll be reading today. I'll try to reread LaserGuy tomorrow and look for possible scumbuddies.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:59 pm UTC

Given that mpolo was reluctant to announce MYLO/LYLO when there were 2 scum-teams in the game and now he's announced MYLO I think we can pretty safely assume that the Guild has been eliminated and that the supernatural team has also 3 members. We can go into more math if you want but it's unnecessary in my opinion. I feel that any talk about an SK is just misleading at this point.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby plytho » Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:07 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:If LaserGuy is Town then this setup is unbalanced as hell.
Could you explain why? I don't really get balance yet.

Sabrar wrote:Given that mpolo was reluctant to announce MYLO/LYLO when there were 2 scum-teams in the game and now he's announced MYLO I think we can pretty safely assume that the Guild has been eliminated and that the supernatural team has also 3 members. We can go into more math if you want but it's unnecessary in my opinion. I feel that any talk about an SK is just misleading at this point.

Yeah 5-3 is the assumption I'm working from. I was hoping to get there through logic to remove any niggling doubts but I failed. My next hope was for someone to point out why that was the logical assumption anyway and that succeeded :)
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:43 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
Sabrar wrote:If LaserGuy is Town then this setup is unbalanced as hell.
Could you explain why? I don't really get balance yet.

I don't think it is explicitly written down anywhere but there are some basic assumptions about how a balanced game looks like. For example as it can be quite hard to catch scum on D1 the setup should usually allow a mislynch or two before Town gets into a MYLO/LYLO situation. Also as mentioned before if Town never mislynches then they should in my opinion automatically win in any scenario. What this means is Town should not have to rely on preferable Night results in order to win the game.
Currently we have lynched 3 scum in a row, completely eliminating one of the teams and still we are in MYLO. In this game it looks like we have no Vig, so Town's only available means of eliminating scum is the lynch.
If LaserGuy is Town then any lynch will only eliminate at most 1 scum. Imagine the scenario where we lynch 4 scum in a row, 2 from each team. During nights we are unlucky, always losing 2 townies. D5 starts at 2-1-1, assume no relevant night-actions remain (only trackers for example). If town lynches any of the scum then the other will automatically win. Paradoxically Town's best chance here is to lynch a townie, hoping that scum will cross-shoot (25% if both choose randomly). Even No Lynch is worse here as Town can only win with scum killing each other which would be ~11% with 4 players.
If LaserGuy is scum then we might theoretically 'catch up' at some point by lynching him as it would eliminate 2 scums simultaneously. This still feels like a bad way to balance the scenario but is a tiny bit better.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby dimochka » Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:36 pm UTC

Hello friends and colleagues. I'm disappointed in the night results; I was hoping to be the one targeted. I agree that the balance feels significantly off. And yes, it seems that I was wrong and supernatural likely has 3 people left, so we need to look carefully.

I didn't post earlier because of my vote restriction, which further complicates things. I wanted to make sure to be able to be on in case someone votes for me. I turned on alerts so I can be sure to be on anytime there is an update. But if there is a vote on me, if someone can please quote me, do it so I can login and remove my own vote.

vote dimochka

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby dimochka » Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:39 pm UTC

I don't even know which is which but it's now both subscribed and bookmarked.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 06, 2017 6:58 pm UTC

dimochka's restriction is very bad if he's Town, luckily we're only at MYLO so scum can't hammer. Also no day-chat means it's harder for scum to coordinate though it can still be done.

@dimochka: is your restriction lifted in LYLO? If not is it allowed for you not to post until the final 24 hours?

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby dimochka » Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:03 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:dimochka's restriction is very bad if he's Town, luckily we're only at MYLO so scum can't hammer. Also no day-chat means it's harder for scum to coordinate though it can still be done.

@dimochka: is your restriction lifted in LYLO? If not is it allowed for you not to post until the final 24 hours?

I literally just asked this question and got a response. It is NOT lifted at regular LYLO, but it IS lifted when we're down to 3 players (to avoid one person quick-hammering).
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:06 pm UTC

Thanks, so No Lynch is off the table for the moment. The only time we can safely do it is at 3-1.

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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:50 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:I've been debating about this since the start of the day, and I've come to the conclusion that it's probably a good idea: I think the inventor should claim their role and who they gave stuff to and why they gave stuff to them. Don't claim what you gave to who, as that would probably help scum more than town at this point.


Sabrar wrote:Agree with SirGabriel, having more confirmed townies is always good.


So there is an inventor? Interesting that you automatically assume that they are town Sabrar. We've had our fair share of scum inventors.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Madge » Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:14 am UTC

OK so I was roleblocked again last night (unless mpolo forgot about me, but I'm guessing I was RBed again). So much for my power :roll:

I will vote today don't worry. The only condition I won't vote is if my vote power would work against us. Sorry but I gotta do my best.

Plytho's analysis looks good.

We're at MYLO - should we claim? Is that a good idea? I kind of would have liked to get a result for my power, but you know, that's not going to happen. (yeah I know I harp on about it)

I think the reason we're on MYLO despite lynching correctly is because scum only ever killed town - probably a disadvantage of claiming e.g. bessie as confirmed town. Why sirgabriel is still alive over SDK I don't know.

I'm not an inventor though FWIW.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby dimochka » Wed Jun 07, 2017 5:52 am UTC

Madge wrote:OK so I was roleblocked again last night (unless mpolo forgot about me, but I'm guessing I was RBed again).

If you really were roleblocked, that sucks - you haven't had a single successful action all game if I recall correctly? I'd be very annoyed if I had that happen to me.

On the other hand, if you really were roleblocked every single night... that's a very convenient claim for scum to make.
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Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby mpolo » Wed Jun 07, 2017 6:44 am UTC

Madge wrote:OK so I was roleblocked again last night (unless mpolo forgot about me, but I'm guessing I was RBed again). So much for my power :roll:


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Sabrar
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Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Shakespeare Mafia III - Act IV looks grim

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jun 07, 2017 7:06 am UTC

@Madge: please let us know if you were roleblocked again. BTW can you come up with a good reason why scum would RB you N1?

Gopher of Pern wrote:So there is an inventor? Interesting that you automatically assume that they are town Sabrar. We've had our fair share of scum inventors.

1. I think you won't find any scum inventors outside of games I modded (at least in the past 2 years or so).
2. It is MYLO. I don't have the luxury to second-guess every decision I make and I don't feel mpolo would have included a scum inventor in this game.


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