Page 2 of 3

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:35 am UTC
by Madge
oh my god. this is going to be harder than i thought.

that said, everything is still consistent with my hunch on sabrar's role.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:18 pm UTC
by mpolo
I saw one kill target.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:27 pm UTC
by Carlington
Assuming my logic isn't faulty, I think that cannot be exactly one.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:32 pm UTC
by Carlington
What I mean to say is - that claim causes a contradiction which would imply either you or Madge are lying.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:43 pm UTC
by Sabrar
@Carlington: is this conclusion dependent on your private info? Because otherwise I don't see the contradiction as there are simply too many variations.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 2:08 pm UTC
by dimochka
I just realized a lot of my analysis yesterday was wrong. Ok let's start putting in some information. Everyone should reveal something they know. And then we'll see where there is a disconnect.

My passed card (from Sabrar) was the Assassin card. Therefore FMPOV the assassin is more likely to be Sabrar than anyone else. But this is purely based on probabilities, since mpolo could've gotten it and had it passed to Madge/Carlington.

Also, Claim: undeclared
The main point of this claim is to state that I am NOT the bystander.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 2:20 pm UTC
by Sabrar
Just to confirm, I passed the Assassin to dimochka. At this point mpolo must have seen the VIP card at some point (unless you want to admit of being the Assasssin? :D ). Though I would advise you not to reveal which of the cards it was.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:44 pm UTC
by dimochka
I'm seriously lost as to where to go with this without outright claiming or asking for claims. Anyone have some ideas? Or questions that could help?

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 12:59 am UTC
by Madge
Here's me attempting to make sense of the setup in real-time, in case it helps:

VIP does not want to claim (unless WIFOM). Only job is not to be shot (and perhaps to help Agents find Assassins)

Agent is not hurt by claiming (except narrows down targets for the Assassin). Only job is to identify and target assassin (and perhaps make the agent think you're the VIP)

Assassin does not want to claim (unless WIFOM). Two jobs: Identify and shoot VIP, and not be identified as an Assassin by agents

Red Decoy does not want to claim (unless WIFOM). Job is to get agents to shoot you instead of the assassin, and to help assassin find VIP

Bystander simply does not want to be shot (and nobody wants to shoot her either). Probably should claim, but probably everyone else should claim bystander too, so doesn't really tell you anything.

The above naturally contains advice to my enemies, but it's really the most basic level of abstraction. We have 5 roles and 5 players, so each player has a unique role (I assume?)

Claims:
mpolo: bystander
madge: undeclared
sabrar: vip
carlington: agent
dimochka: undeclared

As it stands Sabrar is clearly lying, carlington is probably lying (or both telling the truth for WIFOM).

Mpolo - are you really the bystander? Does anyone want to counterclaim?

I claim to not be a bystander

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 1:36 am UTC
by Madge
OK I'm making a truth table and re-reading the thread. I think I have my head around it. Now I understand what's going on I think my previous post is a bit elementary, but it was part of my process OK?? :)

Carlington wrote:Exactly one of the cards Madge saw ended up with either Sabrar or dimochka.


Is this a claim or observation? You and mpolo could each have my cards. (Reads exchange with Sabrar). Okay, so you're saying you got back one of your two starting cards.

I think I can narrow down Carlington's role. Carlington either has the role he passed me, or is a Bystander. Is this correct?

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 1:48 am UTC
by Carlington
Agh, hang on. I have to take another look at my working now, I neglected that Madge passed her card to mpolo before any shuffling took place.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:05 am UTC
by Madge
So you're saying you didn't pick up the role you passed me?

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:11 am UTC
by Carlington
No, that part is accurate and doesn't rely on any logic. The rest relies on logic that might be false. It would help me to know whether you saw any kill targets, Madge.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 3:09 am UTC
by Madge
Should I want to help you, though?

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:36 am UTC
by Carlington
You should already know the answer to that.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:47 am UTC
by Madge
But you don't.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:50 am UTC
by Madge
I think this can't end badly (<----- famous last words)

Assuming other people are telling the truth in their claims, I STRONGLY believe that neither the red team nor the blue team benefits from killing Carlington (i.e. he is one of Agent / Decoy / Bystander).

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:22 am UTC
by dimochka
So here's my two cents. Bystander has no real reason to lie about their role. They could be unsure of what to do, but the play that makes the most sense is to be honest about it. Since no one except mpolo (and me, I guess) claimed bystander, I find it likely that he is indeed the bystander. And based on some information I have, I know that it is possible for him to have that card.

Madge - I don't know how else to do this so I'm just gonna say it. I think we're on the same team.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:36 am UTC
by Sabrar
Madge wrote:Assuming other people are telling the truth in their claims,
That is a big assumption when most players have an incentive to lie.

My observation is that if everyone would shoot the person above him on the list then I will have a high chance of winning based on the possible setups.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:37 am UTC
by Madge
I think that's likely too.

The role I strongly suspected Carlington of having was of the opposite team to mine. I didn't want Carlington to know we weren't aligned though.

Do you have any thoughts about mpolo or sabrar's roles? I have a hunch but I'm such a bad scumhunter I'm paranoid...

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:48 am UTC
by mpolo
Yes, I really am the bystander.

Yes, I saw precisely one Kill target, including the card I got at the end, which is an anti-kill target. (That is, I saw either the VIP or the Assassin on either the deal or the pass.)

I'm not completely clear about how much other people saw — I saw precisely three cards, one at the original deal, one passed to me, one assigned to me at the end.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 7:00 am UTC
by Madge
mpolo wrote:I'm not completely clear about how much other people saw — I saw precisely three cards, one at the original deal, one passed to me, one assigned to me at the end.


Samesies.

Looks like it's me/dim VS sabrar/carlington since that fits the knowledge I have. Unless you're lying scum mpolo then it's pretty clear what's happening "tonight".

Vote to end day early

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 7:11 am UTC
by Sabrar
I hoped that we could have a bit more fun with this, but I agree that the lines are clearly drawn and we can start shooting.

Vote to end day early

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 7:24 am UTC
by Carlington
I've got all the information I really need.
Vote to end day early

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 7:45 am UTC
by dimochka
ok to end the day early

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:07 am UTC
by Madge
Just in case people are forgetful like me, make sure you all PM GoP with your targets, even if you're unarmed.

Then we can see how this shakes out.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:09 am UTC
by Madge
also watch out, Carlington posted an unmarked spoiler in the main thread. I will PM the mod about how to proceed given that I've seen it.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:37 am UTC
by Carlington
the offending post has been edited out, and i apologise a thousand times. i'll not be posting here pending the mod response

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 12:22 pm UTC
by mpolo
OK to end the day early

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 11:59 pm UTC
by Gopher of Pern
I have all your targets, but am busy for the day. The conclusion will be posted in about 9 or 10 hours.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:17 am UTC
by Gopher of Pern
The Raxxon VIP pauses in the street. Everything seems to have gone suddenly quiet....

Sabrar points at Madge!
Dimochka points at Sabrar!
Carlington points at Madge!
Madge points at Sabrar!
mpolo points at Dimochka!

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:23 am UTC
by Gopher of Pern
A single shot rings out across the street. The VIP drops to the floor, checking themselves, making sure it wasn't them the bullet hit. After a few seconds, the VIP stands, looking behind where they were standing a second before. Lying on the ground is a body, a perfect hole in their head. On their arm is a tattoo, branding them as a member of ARK, the terrorist organisation attempting to bring Raxxon down. The VIP breathes a sigh of relief, and gets in their vehicle, driving away.

Dimochka was the Agent and fired, killing Sabrar.
Sabrar was the Assassin, and failed to shoot.
Madge was the VIP, and survived.
mpolo was the Bystander, and survived.
Carlington was the Red Decoy.

The Blue team and the Bystander wins! Congratulations Dimochka, Madge, and mpolo.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:29 am UTC
by Madge
Oh me yarm YES. Called it!

Here's two of my most recent spoilers on the discussion thread:

Madge wrote:Lock me in:

1. Sabrar - Assassin
2. Dimochka - Agent
3. Carlington - Red Decoy
4. Madge - VIP
5. mpolo - Bystander

I'm trying to softclaim Agent by "asking dim for help". Hopefully Dim knows to target Sabrar though.


Madge wrote:My prediction:
- Dim targets Sabrar (since I told Dim that Carlington is Decoy)
- Sabrar targets me, but is killed by dim so I survive

(I think I made the fact I was VIP way too obvious after rereading the game, also I'm pretty sure Sabrar saw the VIP get passed into the me/carl/mpolo shuffle train)


Thanks for the game. It's amazing how much you can deduce from so little information.

Good job dim on targeting the right guy!

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:36 am UTC
by Gopher of Pern
Here's an image of the setup:

Image

And the probabilities for each player with just the information from the cards:

Image

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:39 am UTC
by Sabrar
Congrats to the blue team and Survivor! :D

You've made it very easy for me to find out who was the VIP but it was bad luck that dimochka ended up Agent and saw me passing the Assassin to him.

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:43 am UTC
by Madge
Thanks for running it GoP!! I'd love to play another game now we have a bit of a feeling about what we should be doing...

Re: Crossfire - The Job (Game On)

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:49 am UTC
by Gopher of Pern
If I ran it again, I would make everyone send me their initial claim, so that they are all revealed at the same time. Would make it a bit fairer.

I think this particular setup was a bit biased towards the blue team, but not unduly so. I was surprised that Sabrar made the leap to Madge as the VIP, but I must admit, I did not pay close attention to how the claims in thread might adjust possibilities, as with knowing all the information, I'd be biased!

One weakness I see with the game is that the Bystander has no reason to lie about their role. Everyone else has a potential reason to, but the Bystander is almost incentivised to reveal themselves. This could be alleviated by replacing the bystander with one of the 'advanced' roles, my favourite being the bomber (He wins, and everyone else loses if they survive), but there is also the protester and supporter roles, which put the bystander on one of the teams.

As the game has not actually been released yet, I was unsure what the actual roles of the Red (and Blue) decoy says. I assumed they were just on the colour team they are assigned to, just lacking a weapon, unlike the 'decoy' role, who wins by getting shot.

What did everyone think?

I can probably run another game over the weekend, if people are up for it. Or Madge can run it. I don't mind.

Re: Crossfire - The Showdown (Raxxon [Blue Team] + Bystander Win)

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:02 am UTC
by Madge
I was actually thinking if we played again I'd claim bystander straight away because it seems advantageous to do that, and also it would eliminate a lot of the "bystandar has an easy job". But I'd probably want to change my claim so that way my partner would know who I was (unless my partner was the VIP, since the VIP doesn't need to make a decision).

I'd worry about including the bomb. If you have VIP, assassin, and the bomb, then if Agent and Assassin both target the VIP/Assassin as appropriate, everyone loses, there's no more guns in the game. Like, the red or blue team essentially has to gamble on their opponents shooting the bomb for them. So a team with one gun can't win if everyone plays perfectly and there's a bomb. Would be fun if we had more players though. Maybe chuck it in signups real quick and see how many players we get? I think with 5 you're kind of limited to what we have here, or possibly give red team the bystander (as blue wins as long as they identify the assassin, whereas red needs to identify the VIP *and* not get shot)

EDIT: just took the liberty of adding crossfire: round 2 into signups.

Re: Crossfire - The Showdown (Raxxon [Blue Team] + Bystander Win)

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:14 am UTC
by Gopher of Pern
Yeah, I wouldn't include the bomber in a 5 player game, as that puts the red team at a massive disadvantage; They need the VIP AND the bomber shot to win. The blue team just needs the bomber shot. Creates a no win situation for red team.

I think a 7 or 9 player game would be the optimum number of players. You have a bystander and a decoy, and even numbers of agents and assassins.

I'll put another one up in signups, see what we get.

*edit*
Or you can. Either way.

Re: Crossfire - The Showdown (Raxxon [Blue Team] + Bystander Win)

Posted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:24 am UTC
by Madge
I just couldn't help myself. got too excited.