Trial of the Pariahs - Game Over

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Suzaku
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby Suzaku » Tue Aug 09, 2016 2:42 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:Oh, what's SNR?

Signal-to-Noise Ratio - there's quite a lot of text, not a whole lot of content to sink teeth into.

Carlington wrote:@Suzaku:
Carlington wrote:Basically, I think that we should keep Madge up our sleeve as a potential free/safe lynch, as she can't be town (unless she's lying and lynch all liars). In the same vein, taking this approach gives Madge incentive to help us hunt scum.
Seems you disagree. Why?

I think I actually agree. She's a good guaranteed non-mislynch, and if we can avoid a D1 mislynch, then awesome. Also, if she can be pressured to hunt scum, then why not on D1? I guess I don't really see any benefit to keeping a confessed non-helper alive just to be lynched if we have a bad day. We should have better reads day-by-day, so the safety value of a Madge lynch is highest on D1.

That being said, I'm more than willing to shift my vote off Madge if we have a decent scum candidate. But right now we don't, which is not unexpected early on D1, of course. If Madge can provide an argument why someone else is a better lynch, I'll surely listen.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby generalz » Tue Aug 09, 2016 2:54 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:@generalz, really nothing to say whatsoever?


Nothing that other people didn't already say... I'm not much of a talker anyway :)
Noone (except for Madge) really stands out so far. Her winning condition could be based on the winner, the duration of the game, who kills her...
Since SirGabriel brought up the idea of the lie detector, it could be one of his powers?

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby dimochka » Tue Aug 09, 2016 3:59 pm UTC

Suzaku wrote:dimochka, in the first instance, and JackHK look a little shady for the attack on moody. If I were a lie detector, I would check on 'I am town' before anything else unless some restriction prevented it, and a "True" result on that renders every other variation redundant.

You should know that my first post isn't actually serious. Jack picking up on the same thing is a little more surprising, but all seems to me like random pushing on people that happens at beginning of most D1s. And yes I agree with you. I'm actually thinking that if moody were some kind of scum/cult/alien/spaghetti monster, he would have been more likely to mention everything on that list. It's a stupid reason but just because of that he's leaning town for me.

On that note,
Unvote
Carlington wrote:jimbob and dimochka, some decent set-up spec, but I do question the utility of speculating about roles in a game with deliberately unusual roles.

For me the reasoning was two-fold. #1 it was just how I thought through it and I figured I may as well mention what I'm thinking, and #2 I really don't like cults. Apart from one of the Harry Potter games, which was amazingly fun (and where I had no clue there was a cult till I was recruited), my interactions with cults have not usually been positive. SK just kind of made sense, especially if Madge has some kind of early game (or later game) protection where she's not as worried about being killed, and wants to setup an alibi for later.

Re: Madge - mostly for the fun of the game, I would definitely like to keep her alive to D2, and maybe to D3. As I mentioned, I like complex and weird games, and I think (and hope) this would make it more so.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby JackHK » Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:50 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:@JackHK, I feel like you're jumping at shadows with moody.


Yeah, you're probably right. Most of it was just curiousity that moody didn't just copy-paste what everyone else was posting. But given moody's more recent posts, I don't see much of anything else suspicious, so really they're not registering as suspicious.

As for Madge... I dunno. I guess even if we accept she's telling the truth I'm not sure whether she's a good target for lynch. I suppose in the absence of anyone more suspicious... Hmmm. Will have to think about it.

Current votals:
SirGabriel
matt96 1 (JackHK)
ConMan
Carlington 1 (moody7277)
Madge 1 (Suzaku)
moody7277
adnapemit 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)
JackHK 1 (SirGabriel)
Suzaku
dimochka
generalz 1 (adnapemit)
jimbobmacdoodle 1 (generalz)

Not voted: dimochka, matt96, ConMan, Carlington, Madge

(Please correct if I've made any mistakes!)

dimochka wrote:
Suzaku wrote:dimochka, in the first instance, and JackHK look a little shady for the attack on moody. If I were a lie detector, I would check on 'I am town' before anything else unless some restriction prevented it, and a "True" result on that renders every other variation redundant.


You should know that my first post isn't actually serious. Jack picking up on the same thing is a little more surprising, but all seems to me like random pushing on people that happens at beginning of most D1s. And yes I agree with you. I'm actually thinking that if moody were some kind of scum/cult/alien/spaghetti monster, he would have been more likely to mention everything on that list. It's a stupid reason but just because of that he's leaning town for me.


This, more than anything else, persuades me that I shouldn't count moody's actions vis-a-vis "lie-detector-baiting" against them. I imagine scum/independent would be too paranoid not to cave immediately.

Now, there is something about my role which might affect how we spread our votes. I don't want to reveal too much just yet, but one of my "one-a-game" powers is directly affected by who is on the bandwagon at the end of the day. I'm not sure how to exploit this power to be most useful; I'll have to think about it some more.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby JackHK » Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:53 pm UTC

EBWOP: "Prettified" votals:

adnapemit 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)
Carlington 1 (moody7277)
generalz 1 (adnapemit)
JackHK 1 (SirGabriel)
jimbobmacdoodle 1 (generalz)
Madge 1 (Suzaku)
matt96 1 (JackHK)
ConMan 0
dimochka 0
moody7277 0
SirGabriel 0
Suzaku 0

Not voted: dimochka, matt96, ConMan, Carlington, Madge

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:27 pm UTC

Ok, reactions time now that there are a few more posts with content:

adnapemit: only one post so far, basically commenting on Madge's claim. Shows some healthy scepticism, but thinks it's more likely truthful.
Carlington: quick into the discussion. Thinks Madge very likely being truthful with her claim, but hasn't ruled out her being scum, which again I think is wise. He also posted some reasonable comments about the other early posts, so showing some early opinions, which is good. Goes on to poke several people with some reasonable questions in his second posting.
ConMan: gives away a minimal amount of information about his role (but really not all that much) to try to get information out to help town. Will be looking for scum elsewhere away from Madge because of her early claim. Seems like he's decided already which way to look there. No thoughts on anything else so far, which is saddening, but then he has not posted at all today my time.
dimochka: cautious about Madge, (as noted above I agree with this approach). Setup spec, like me, but little really to note there, that I can see. Has moody as town, for not putting everything in the lie detector statement. Showing some reasoning for his thoughts, which is good.
generalz: two posts, with almost no content so far (but at least isn't actively waffling or posting non-content). Placed a second vote on me, but was almost certainly random, so nothing to say there. Really needs to up his content here.
JackHK: one of the more active players. First post is basically an agreement with others, then an odd question as to whether to random vote, especially given others already had. Get's a little caught up on moody's response to the lie-detector, which at first seems a little odd, given my own opinions on the situation, but on second read, whilst I disagree with his opinions, they do seem to be justified. He backs down after others point out their reasoning, so he's willing to listen to others' opinions as well. Hasn't posted much content on other topics yet, though.
Madge - nothing has really changed about my thoughts on Madge. I have no idea what she's planning on achieving, and she's not doing anything to persuade us that we should have her best interests at heart. If someone has an unlimited vig without a good scum target, she'd probably not be a bad choice, as I'm still very wary about her being a scum being bold (i.e. make everyone else think "scum would never do that, so she can't be scum").
Matt96 - no posts yet
Moody - happy to ignore Madge for now and hasn't commented on the possibility of her being scum. Posts a reasonable defence of his uncopied lie detector statement. Hasn't yet posted anything about anybody else.
SirGabriel - thinks Madge is probably telling the truth. Brings up a lie detector as possible. As Carlington points out, he hasn't said anything about anybody else yet.
Suzaku - thinks Madge likely being truthful. Expands on the lie detector set. Votes Madge for lack of better candidate, which seems reasonable, as long as he continues looking elsewhere. Posts a couple of thoughts on others, but not much. (OT - I'd be up for Olympic Mafia)

@adnapemit/Carlington/ConMan - what are your thoughts on Madge, given she has no plans to scum-hunt?

@generalz - where do you stand on Madge? Do you think she is likely telling the truth or is trying to put up a false persona? What do you think about other people's opinions? Which do you agree with?

@jack/moody/SirGabriel - what are your thoughts on other people?

@Madge - if a vig has no great target, why should they not kill you tonight?

@moody - what is your opinion on Madge potentially being scum?

For the record, setup spec helps me get my thoughts a little more in order until there's some actual stuff to comment on. Now that there's a little more content, it can most likely be ignored, beyond the basic cautions of not ignoring possibilities of unknown sanity and cults, given that we know so little about the setup. I do agree that most/all of the roles are likely in the list Sabrar linked to.

Unvote

since there are serious vote(s?) now in play.

People I'm happy with currently: Carlington, dimochka, JackHK, Suzaku
People I'm not happy with because they haven't posted enough: adnapemit, ConMan, generalz, matt96, moody, SirG
People I'm not happy with because I don't like what they've posted: Madge
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Aug 09, 2016 8:21 pm UTC

Since there is now at least one serious vote, I should

Unvote

Now, for analysis:

adnapemit: Only one post so far. Worried that Madge is dangerous, although she believes she's telling the truth about being independent. Posts statements for lie detector. Needs more content.

Carlington: Says that, if Madge is independent, she must be telling the truth (why would you say that?), and it's unlikely scum would make such a bold claim. We should keep Madge alive for now and lynch her when we have no scum leads, since that gives her an incentive to help us hunt scum. Thinks ConMan shouldn't have shared anything about his role. Posted statements for lie detector, doesn't have a problem with moody's lie detector statements. The rest of his second post seems to be trying to get other people to contribute without him actually adding to the discussion. Also, I'm not sure I agree with his plan concerning Madge (since if Madge is potentially dangerous, lynching her is more than just a safe kill, but if she's harmless until endgame, lynching her isn't necessarily better than lynching at random, and with all these power roles we should always be able to do better than lynching at random), but I think it's more likely a genuine mistake than an intentionally bad plan. For now I'll call him neutral, but IGMEOY.

ConMan: Gives a vague description of his role powers, since that adds some information to discuss and D1 is dull with no information. Posts statements for lie detector. Tentatively fine with Madge's claim, admits possibility that she's a serial killer but says for now he'll look elsewhere for scum. Needs more content.

dimochka: Posts statements for lie detector. Votes moody for leaving out lie detector statements, but later says it was a joke vote and he thinks moody is more likely town for making himself stand out like that. Ignores Madge for now. Brief set-up speculation, claims to be an "uncommon but not incredibly rare" role. Does not like cults, asks anyone with a reason to believe there is no cult to say so (although I can't think of anything that anyone would already know which could be evidence of the nonexistence of a cult). Thinks Madge should be kept alive to make the game more complex and weird and therefore more fun. I disagree with him about moody: while moody's lie detector statements aren't evidence that he's independent or mafia, they're also not evidence that he's town, since they could just as easily be scum intentionally drawing attention to himself because everyone assumes that's exactly what scum wouldn't do. And I really don't like what he says about Madge. I have nothing against making the game fun, but I think keeping Madge alive purely for the sake of fun is a terrible idea. If, as I suspect, she wins by either killing everyone else or predicting who wins, then she's probably got one of the least interesting roles in the game. And if she is a serial killer, letting her live is more likely to help mafia than town at this point, so I'm calling dimochka scummy. And if he dies and flips scum, maybe we should look closer at moody.

generalz: Posts statements for lie detector, virtually no other content.

JackHK: Agrees with Carlington's plan concerning Madge. Thinks it's a good idea for us not to reveal much about our roles yet. Posts statements for lie detector. Doesn't like moody's lie detector statements or his reasoning behind them, but changes his mind after Carlington and dimochka give their thoughts on it. Reveals that one of his powers is affected by who is on the bandwagon at day end - probably shouldn't have revealed that, but it was probably a genuine mistake. Neutral.

jimbob: Posts statements for lie detector. Setup speculation. Not sure what to think about Madge. Not bothered by moody's lie detector statements. Analysis post looks good, except that for some reason he thinks that I think that Madge is probably telling the truth (yes, that's what my first post said, but I think it's clear from my third post that I changed my mind). Suggests that a vig should kill Madge, but makes no mention of the possibility of lynching her. Slightly townie.

Madge: Claimed role: Independent, can do fun stuff, doesn't care who wins but may be forced to side with one side or the other, not a survivor but wants to survive, it's in scum's best interest not to kill her, has no intention to hunt scum, wants to survive to D3 although that's not directly related to her win condition, doesn't care how she's killed if she's going to be killed, wants a day's notice before being killed. If she's telling the truth, then it's probably best for us not to kill her unless we get to a potential MYLO situation. The problem is, I don't see how she can possibly be telling the truth about everything. I can't think of any possible role which fits all of her claims, nor can I find one on Mafia Universe. And if she's lying, she's probably anti-town, most likely some form of serial killer (since the one thing I am convinced of in her claim is that she's independent). I want to believe her, because I can't imagine scum making such a strange claim and expecting to get away with it, but if she can't convince us that she's telling the truth, I don't think it's a good idea to let her live.

matt96: Has not posted at all except to confirm (making him the only one other than Madge who hasn't posted anything for the lie detector).

moody: Setup speculation. Shorter list of lie detector statements than everyone else (but I don't think that says anything about how likely he is to be independent or mafia), explains his reasoning when JackHK asks. Says he feels safe ignoring Madge, later changes his mind when he comes to the conclusion that she is lying. Thinks Madge should be killed by a vig in case she's a jester (I'm not sure how I feel about this plan, because while Madge's play this game does seem a bit jesterish, jester is common enough that I wouldn't expect to see it in this game, plus we have no idea whether we have a vig). Very slightly townie (mainly because he seems to be the only one who agrees with me about Madge), but as I said above, we should look more closely at him if dimochka ever flips scum.

Suzaku: Madge's claim is likely true. Claims to have an interesting role which he's never seen before. Posts a more extensive lie detector list than everyone else. Votes for Madge (the only serious vote of the game so far if I'm not mistaken), not because he believes she's scum but because she says she won't hunt for scum. Setup speculation. Thinks dimochka and JackHK are a little shady for attacking moody. Would rather lynch Madge than lynch someone else when we don't have a decent scum candidate (I agree with his conclusion but not with the reasoning behind it). Slightly townie.
_________________________________________________________________

Short version: a lot of people need more content, but since we're not even two days into the game I'm not going to call them lurkers yet. Madge, dimochka, and Carlington are the only ones whose content stood out to me in a negative way. If Madge can convince us that she's harmless, I think we're better off aiming for scum even if we don't have any strong leads, but if she can't, I'll probably vote for her.

@Madge: Why should we believe you are telling the truth? Also, please post something for the possible lie detector (a good start might be "I am not a serial killer. I am not cult. I am not anti-town. I can win with town.")

@Suzaku: Has your opinion of dimochka changed since he claimed that he was joking about moody?

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby JackHK » Tue Aug 09, 2016 8:27 pm UTC

I suppose, if votes are getting serious:
Unvote

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:JackHK: one of the more active players. First post is basically an agreement with others, then an odd question as to whether to random vote, especially given others already had.

To clarify, I think at that point only one person had done a random vote, so I was unsure whether random voting was going to be a thing.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@jack/moody/SirGabriel - what are your thoughts on other people?


Alright. Hmmmm...

@adnapemit: Concerns about Madge - I think this is warranted, such a weird play at the start could mean many things, not all of them good - but also thinks Madge is telling truth about being independent. I see the reasoning, but I'm not quite ready to make up my mind about Madge yet. Otherwise nothing suspicious.
@Carlington: Thinks we should keep Madge in reserve for "safe" lynch. Seems a reasonable idea, so long as we can find someone else to lynch for the moment who is even more likely to be scum. Concerns about ConMan sharing info about role, though this seems to be about ConMan saying that his power is weak. I can see why Carlington is worried about this making mafia more likely to get powerful roles... hmmmm. Fortunately I think the info I've shared about my own role is sufficiently vague as to not give scum useful info. Thinks moody not using the same "oath" is nothing to worry about - I agree, seeing everyone's arguments regarding the issue. Nothing scummy AFAICT.
@ConMan: Immediately reveals info about role. Agree with Carlington that this is a bit of an odd move for town, but cannot be too judgemental, given the info I revealed. Justifies himself with argument I will tentatively accept. Otherwise nothing. Not much to go on.
@dimochka: Notices moody7277's different oath. Decides to ignore Madge for now.... not sure it's the best idea, but can understand. Agree with their comments about cult - FWIW I have no information about cults. Later manages to convince me I was being paranoid wrt moody - his reasoning strikes me as justified.
@generalz: Not much to talk about here, but like jimbob said, at least we know they're not deliberately obfuscating.
@jimbobmacdoodle: Mentions preferring not to vote at least for the first two days. Not sure which roles that points to. Some speculation on roles - not sure whether it was useful to do, but otherwise nothing objectionable. Confused about Madge, which is perfectly reasonable - isn't everybody? Later does v. good analysis on everybody - I find my self agreeing with much of what he said.
@Madge: Like I said, not sure what to do about her. Part of me wants to lynch her just because we know she's not town - and then the other half of me wants to keep her in just to make the game more exciting, like dimochka. I'm not even sure if she's telling the truth.
@matt96: Umm, nothing posted yet, I think.
@moody7277: Was at first suspicious about the oath thing, but after dimochka's reasoning, am agreeing that they are probably one of the more town-ish players. Was willing to ignore Madge, laer mentions possibility of her being scum, would appreciate clarification of their thoughts about her.
@SirGabriel: Not much to go on here. Brought up the possibility of a lie detector - is he one? Would make it likely for people to say things like " I am town" for checking, I suppose. Otherwise nothing particularly suspicious.
@Suzaku: Suspects dimochka and myself a little for the "oath" thing with moody, which I reckon was justified, so can't hold it against them. :) Does a little set-up spec, nothing particularly memorable.

I second all jimbob's questions.

People I'd like to hear more from: adnapemit, ConMan, generalz, matt96, SirGabriel, Suzaku
People I'm pretty happy with for now: Carlington, dimochka, jimbobmacdoodle, moody7277
People I'm FOSing: Madge

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby JackHK » Tue Aug 09, 2016 8:28 pm UTC

EBWOP: Ninja'ed by SirGabriel. Will read through his post and respond if necessary.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby JackHK » Tue Aug 09, 2016 8:35 pm UTC

LIke SirGabriel's post, has given me some stuff to think about regarding dimochka, and has some good arguments for lynching Madge. Hmmm..

SirGabriel (regarding me) wrote:Reveals that one of his powers is affected by who is on the bandwagon at day end - probably shouldn't have revealed that, but it was probably a genuine mistake. Neutral.


I admit I probably didn't think it through enough, but I still don't quite see how mafia can abuse this information, especially as they don't know how the bandwagon affects my power. If you think I should say any more, though, I'll certainly keep that in mind.

What are people's thoughts regarding when cops or cop-like roles should reveal their roles?

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Aug 09, 2016 8:49 pm UTC

JackHK wrote:What are people's thoughts regarding when cops or cop-like roles should reveal their roles?

If you get a scum result on someone, you should claim. If you're about to be lynched, you should claim. If someone you know to be town is about to be lynched, you should at least consider claiming, but off the top of my head I can't think of any definite rule that would apply in that situation (unless of course it's MYLO/LYLO). If you think you're likely to be nightkilled whether you claim or not, you probably should claim. If at some point we collectively decide that a mass claim would be a good idea, you should claim. If we're at MYLO/LYLO and for some reason you haven't already claimed, you should claim. I think that covers everything.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:16 pm UTC

Quick responses before going to bed:
SirGabriel wrote:jimbob: Analysis post looks good, except that for some reason he thinks that I think that Madge is probably telling the truth (yes, that's what my first post said, but I think it's clear from my third post that I changed my mind).
Sorry SirG, I was going through one post at a time and typing up my thoughts as I went along, but forgot to go back and correct them once I had seen your later posts.

JackHK wrote:I suppose, if votes are getting serious:
Unvote

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:JackHK: one of the more active players. First post is basically an agreement with others, then an odd question as to whether to random vote, especially given others already had.

To clarify, I think at that point only one person had done a random vote, so I was unsure whether random voting was going to be a thing.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@jimbobmacdoodle: Mentions preferring not to vote at least for the first two days.
To be clear, I'd prefer not to vote in general, but I acknowledge that if I'm still alive by approx D3, my vote will likely be quite important.

SirG's comments re. cop claims broadly seem right. It's worth noting that since it's unlikely we have a regular cop, however it interacts with the rest of your ability needs to be kept in mind as well when deciding to claim. I can't really predict what that might be though.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:18 pm UTC

Woops, messed up the quote above. Second quote should just be:

JackHK wrote:@jimbobmacdoodle: Mentions preferring not to vote at least for the first two days.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby matt96 » Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:47 pm UTC

Ok, first of all, sorry about waiting this long to post, the transformer outside my house blew, and I didn't have an internet connection on my laptop for a period of time,
In terms of things going on in the game, I'm not sure whether or not to trust madge's claim yet, but I do have a few questions that would help me make that determination. So, madge, would you mind answering the following?

1. When can you win? i.e. Can you possibly win Day 1 or does a certain amount of time or something else need to occur first, and is it possible for you to be left alive but unable to fulfill your win condition(s)?

2. If you are still alive at the time what happens in a 1-1-1 Kingmaker scenario, and does it vary based on whether or not you have accomplished your win condition(s) by that point in time?

3. How well would you say that your power fits with your win condition(s)?

I'll get around to looking more closely at everything else within a day or so.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby moody7277 » Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:59 pm UTC

adnapemit: Worried about Madge's claim, gives lie detector statement, RV generalz. Neutral/insufficient data

Carlington: Madge either indie or lying scum, feels free to lynch her at any point, Conman's claim a little early, lie detector statement, a few other questions for other people. leaning town.

ConMan: calls his role dull with some description of conditions, lie detector statement with doubts, accepting of Madge's claim with SK caveat. neutral

dimochka: gives lie detector statement, RV me for variant statement, then backs down when pressed by Suzaku, wanys to keep Madge alive "for the fun of the game". Last statement is a little pingy, but it's the only thing so far, therefore he's neutral.

generalz: gives lie detector statement, RV jimbob, agreement on Madge, spec that SirG has a lie detector. neutral/insufficient data.

JackHK: agreement on analysis of Madge and ConMan's claims, RV for matt, some discussion with me over variant statement, unofficial votals, hints at voting related power, reads list with Carlington, dim, jimbob, me townie looking, others need more content. leaning townie.

jimbob: lie detector statement, some role spec including vote mechanics, slightly suspicious of Madge, unconcerned by my variant statement, reads list with Carlington, dim, JackHK, Suzaku townie, others need more content, retracts RV against adnapemit, hesitant to vote early. enough content, nothing pingy, so leaning townie.

Madge: claims ambivalent independent with no interest in scum-hunting, would prefer to live or be notified before death. Would seem to be a liability at endgame.

To answer jimbob's question, scum!Madge trying a gambit would look to have blown it since there are several of us (me included) who feel lynching her is a good idea, so I'd say it's most likely she is what she says she is. I still think she ought to earn her keep a bit more.

matt96: just now posted due to outside issues, questioning Madge on role specifics (good luck, I don't think you're getting many answers). jury is still out

SirG: originates lie detector statement, RV JackHK, spec on my non-vanilla jester hypothesis and exact nature of Madge's role, reads list with Madge, dim, Carlington most negative, exhaustive cop claim conditions. firmly townie on the strength of research on several points.

Suzaku: interesting role, RV jimbob, variant list of statements for lie detector, serious vote on Madge for her apathy, some role spec but not very impressed with it, prefers Madge lynch now to keeping her alive to lynch later but best would be actual scum. moderately townie

Condensing we have:
Town: SirG, Suzaku, jimbob, JackHK, Carlington
Don't Know: adnapemit, ConMan, dim, generalz, matt
Lynchable: Madge
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby Madge » Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:17 am UTC

I've just had a heck of a night and sent a personal email I probably shouldn't have sent, so I'm probably going to have a heck of a next few days too, unless the personal email I probably shouldn't have sent goes down well (HA, they never do!!!!!).

So I'm going to make a post I probably shouldn't make and just lay out basically everything:

My win condition is oracle. I win if I guess which day the game ends on (so e.g. if I guess D4, if it ends on D4 or N4 I win). That's why I don't care who wins, unless I can force a win / delay a win in order to get the days to come around the way I want.

The reason I want to live to D3 is because I can only guess once, and I'd like to guess after a few days so I can have an idea of the types of power roles we have. And if I die before guessing then I'm in trouble.

My power is able to give me information that will help me make that determination, and could also help town or scum if I decide to share it, so the longer I live the more I get to use my power and the more information I have. I can ask the mod a question and have it answered. I can NOT find alignments or roles, so I am NOT a cop, so that is why I said scum doesn't have to worry about me finding who they are. But I can basically find out anything I want apart from that, only I'm not allowed to nest questions, which was annoying because I worked out a simple way to find out an arbitrary number of pieces of numerical information and I was hoping the mod would reward me for creativity but I guess not breaking the game is valued more, the nerve.

So I was going to try and work out a way of finding the number of kills that could conceivably happen in a night, or the average number of kills, or something. I haven't really worked out a question that would be optimal for me, and hey, I can just crowdsource it now. I can get a question that will help both of us. I feel like kills are the thing to ask about because they help everyone.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby Carlington » Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:59 am UTC

quick responses on the way to work
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@adnapemit/Carlington/ConMan - what are your thoughts on Madge, given she has no plans to scum-hunt?

I notice as I type this that Madge has just posted, so no doubt I'll have more to say in a bit. Look, I'd love it if she helped town, and knowing she's not a threat should make it safer for her to do that both with regards to the lynch and the NK. I still think it's safe to leave her alive for the time being, because we know she's never a mislynch and we basically get a free day out of it. I guess I can see the merit in just lynching her straight up, as we get the benefits of a D1 NL (extra info from the night phase with no risk of mislynch) without the drawbacks (free action for scum). Still, if there's no better scum candidate I have nothing against her lynch at any point.

SirGabriel wrote:Carlington: Says that, if Madge is independent, she must be telling the truth (why would you say that?)
She claimed independent is all I meant, so if she's indie then she's telling the truth by definition.

JackHK wrote:What are people's thoughts regarding when cops or cop-like roles should reveal their roles?
Have a look at how I played cop in my most recent game, and don't do that. :lol:
Serious response, SirG's answer to this looks good to me.

I've been ninja'd by Madge, and that's going to take some processing. Hope you're holding up okay, Madge.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Aug 10, 2016 7:57 am UTC

Great to see some analysis, and thank you to those who have answered questions so far. I'll review the answers a bit more this evening probably (phone posting atm, so not easy to do so currently).

I'm inclined to believe Madge. Certainly the claim sounds consistent in itself and with what she's said so far. I do want to sound a note of caution that it could still all be made up, so any answers she does reveal need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

@Madge, is your ability a night action (I.e. Do you have to wait until morning)?

In my opinion, finding out if there are any cult-like factions around could be very useful. I don't fully understand the rules, but something like "can anybody's action change the faction someone else is in?" should work.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby generalz » Wed Aug 10, 2016 9:14 am UTC

@jimbob: a bit late but now I'm pretty sure Madge is telling the truth, I don't believe she made all that up. Now I guess we can help her find the best question(s) to help us find scum/cults/whatever? If she wants to, that is!
On the other hand, there is a risk she could be killed by scum during the night if she becomes a threat. Should a potential doctor protect her?

By the way:
Unvote

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:13 am UTC

I agree, now that Madge has claimed her full role, I think she's telling the truth. It doesn't appear to match up to any single role on mafia universe, which is why I didn't find it before, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sabrar combined two roles. And it's definitely consistent with everything she claimed so far, plus it seems like a really risky claim for scum!Madge to make. So at this point I think we should let Madge live at least until we get to a potential MYLO situation.

I'm not sure how much we can gain from any question Madge could ask. Actually, on second thought, it could be very helpful to us (and also to Madge) to know whether there is a cult, so we know whether we need to analyze people day-by-day to look for potential faction changes (and she knows whether to consider the possibility of a cult win in her prediction). We could also ask about number of kills/number of factions/number of anti-town factions, but I think jimbob's question about cults would be the most useful.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby adnapemit » Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:27 am UTC

Unvote

Carlington:
Pretty convincing logic that since town doesn't lie then Madge is probably telling the truth.
Thinks Conman sharing too much too early(I disagree). Not worried about moody not specifying indie and doesn't
consider Madge is a threat. I haven't seen anything that looked scummy in his post so at the moment he is neutral.

ConMan:
Shared he thought his role was dull and was fine with Madge's but does consider SK possibility.
Possibly has some sort of specific role block...actually I don't know what sort of role he has which is why disagreed with Carlington's opinion. I couldn't even guess what he was hinting at. I'm placing him neutral.

dimochka:
Suggest Madge is SK. Asks for proof of cult not existing. Setup discussion. Doesn't like cults.
I agree with SirGabriel that keeping Madge alive for simply fun is a terrible idea. Slightly scummy.

generalz:
Not much posted, believes Madge because it couldn't be made up an suggests doctor protects.
She could have easily made her role up and suggesting that a doctor protect an independent who they themselves doesn't care who will win is a very bad idea. Slightly scummy because of suggesting misuse of potential doctor.

JackHK:
Only lynch Madge if no one is more scummy. Mentions having 2 powers which can be used once and cop and cop-like roles. I could guess that he might be able to tell how many scum are on a bandwagon but I would probably be wrong. I would place him as slightly townie.

jimbobmacdoodle:
Unlikely to vote for first day or two and has quite a bit of speculation on the game. This seems to imply his role is either affected by or affects the votes. He thinks a second indie is likely and I agree. If he does as he says and doesn't vote then I think he will appear more townie as the game goes on but for now neutral.

Madge:
Independent claim, doesn't care who wins, addresses scum directly telling them she is not a threat, not scum hunting, at least a days notice if town does lynch her and is very determined to survive.
She claims she can win by guessing which day the game ends.IF she is telling the truth about her win condition then I expect there is more than one role with a kill or a possible chance to kill.
She promises information(if she chooses to share it) if we don't lynch her. I think the information she could provide currently outweighs the possibility she is dangerous to town so I think we give her the chance to prove herself and lynch her d2 if she can't convince us.
I think if Madge is telling the truth then there is probably another indie with a kill power.

matt96:
Not sure to trust Madge and asks her some questions. Neutral.

moody7277:
Ignoring Madge but she won't be scum hunting. Uses own words for lie detector. I used the same statement for consistency but as long as there is a claim for town and for being not scum(or cult) in separate statements the other option of independent can be assumed. Neutral

SirGabriel:
First to post statements for lie detector and also provided a very detailed analysis which contained several good points although I don't agree with everything he viewed as townie or scummy. Slightly townie.

Suzaku:
Places a serious vote on Madge. Setup discussion.
Describes lynching Madge as a guaranteed non-mislynch (this was before Madges full claim) which seemed reasonable argument at the time. If she wasn't helping town then it would be removing a threat to town. Slightly townie.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Aug 10, 2016 6:48 pm UTC

So a few more thoughts from people now to respond to. Given Madge's claim, I guess people's previous responses about her are less important than before, but I do like Matt's prodding of her. On the note of her being a safe lynch, it is probably worth pointing out that in Dollhouse, Sabrar treated a survivor lynch as a mislynch in terms of balancing the game (i.e. the traditional two allowed mislynches included the survivor), so whilst it's correct to say that we won't lose a Town role, it may not grant us the free day that people think that it would do. FWIW, I found the oracle ability here, but her win condition looks closer to Frontrunner.

On the posts that people have made recently away from Madge:

Matt - as noted above, prodding of Madge is good. Needs good analysis of people soon though.
Moody - big analysis post, but actually not much reasoning for some of his reads that I can see - basically summarises posts then puts a final conclusion. Not really an issue at this stage though, given the lack of much to bite on as yet.
Carlington - focusing on Madge in his most recent post, but needs to diversify in his future posts.
generalz - suggests a poor strategy for doctors, and has posted nothing on anybody apart from Madge. Currently the scummiest, due to lack of content and poor strategy. More substantial content could rectify this though.
SirGabriel - plenty of content to read through from him, and his analysis post provides reasoning for his opinions, which on a quick skim looks reasonable.
JackHK - decent analysis, again with reasoning
adnapemit - again, reasonable amount of analysis in her latest post, backed up with reasoning

People I'm feeling better about following these posts: Matt (though still needs to do more), SirGabriel, JackHK, adnapemit
People I'm feeling worse about: generalz, moody (slightly), Carlington (slightly)

FoS generalz for 3 posts with zero content, except a poor strategy.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby generalz » Wed Aug 10, 2016 9:04 pm UTC

Sorry about that, I will try to come up later with more content/analysis. I couldn't put as much time as I wanted on this game...

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby Madge » Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:41 am UTC

My win condition is prophet from MU: http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/dat ... le=Prophet

Happy to ask about cults though I'd prefer to ask about kills. That said, if there's a cult it means my wincon can change and I'd like to know about that I suppose.

How to phrase the question, though, to get maximum info? Need to munchkin this as much as we can.

In this game, how many factions are able to change the win condition of other players, and is this ability limited in a way more severe than 'use once per night'?

That'd give me a two word answer which I've been told to aim for, but I'm already pretty sure Sabrar wouldn't answer it as it's two questions, so I wonder if there's a way to nest them. My first attempt at a question, "How many a) multiple use and b) single use kills are in the setup, excluding the lynch?", was refused, even if I managed to nest it (plan: What is the number that results from (# single use kills multiplied by 100) added to (# multi use kills), giving a single three digit number, and could be expanded arbitrarily large).

Would knowing the number of factions be more or less useful? I feel personally I'd prefer to know the number of factions, but that's because I think a cult is unlikely and I don't want to waste a question.

Possible alternative question:

What percentage of factions in the game are able to change the win condition of other players, with independent roles each being counted as their own faction?

If we have a cult-esque group, we will have a decent chance of being able to figure out the number of factions, but if we don't we get a 0 and just know there's no cult. I wonder if there's a way to reword this question so that way we get useful information both with a cult and without a cult?
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby ConMan » Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:52 am UTC

I would think that it's in Madge's interests to scumhunt, but not necessarily share her info with us, but if she'd rather play the observer then maybe if we're nice enough she'll offer some words of wisdom to us ;) On that basis, I'm going to think about what she might ask the mod, and try to offer some suggestions that are helpful both to her and to town.

From my perspective, the best pieces of information about the set-up to know would probably be things along the lines of:

  • What's the breakdown of town/scum/independent/cult/other? (Where hopefully the last two values are both 0).
  • How many kills can there be in a night?
  • Is there a means of changing a player's win condition?
  • What's the worst-case scenario for town, in terms of mislynches and bad targets (or scum choosing good targets)?

As for ways to word the question, I'd say that the evidence is pointing towards the mod refusing to answer questions that try to be too loop-holey, so it's probably better to try for a question that answers a simple question solidly, rather than trying to finagle extra information out of the mod. That said, I guess you could try slightly trickier versions first, then whittle your way down to something that will actually be answered, but that runs the risk of attracting the mod's ire, which I usually am not a fan of. So some questions I'd consider might be:

  • In order, which out of {town, scum, other} are the two largest groups?
  • What is the earliest phase of the game (e.g. night 3, day 7) that town can definitively lose? (Obviously this one is particularly helpful for Madge's win condition, but it also gives us information on how much of a safety net we have.)
  • How many different win conditions are there in the game?
  • Are the following statements true or false, respectively? (1) There is a recruiting ability, cult or otherwise. (2) There is a player with alignment other than scum or town with a killing ability.

I'm sure if given enough time I could come up with a few others. Any of those tickle your fancy Madge?
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby Madge » Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:15 am UTC

The problem with "number of kills in a night" is that if we have, say, an odd/even SK, a jack of all trades, a cult that gains a killing power when it reaches 3 members, etc we could get a very un-useful number. I'd prefer to find the number of actual multi-use kills.

The worst case scenario question is good, but you end up with the mod having to account for craziness, I think in one game last year there was a chance for 5/12 of the players being killed N1 if all the powers crystalised in the perfect way, and given I have two abilities (my non-question ability is useless as far as I can see, though), I'm guessing everyone else also has two abilities, and they could interact in just ridiculous ways such that a very bad set where all the non-town people hit town rather than other factions/independents, we could get a lower bound of 2 days, which would only serve to scare everyone and wouldn't give me any useful information.

In order, which out of {town, scum, other} are the two largest groups? All this is going to tell us is whether there are more scum or more independents, unless I suppose there's a chance of there being a huge number of independents, multiple scum teams that have to kill the other team, etc. I'm not sure it's super valuable to town and pretty sure it's hardly valuable to me.

How many different win conditions are there in the game? this question is good, could possibly be used as the numerator or denominator of a fraction if I'm allowed to have percentages as answers.

Are the following statements true or false, respectively? (1) There is a recruiting ability, cult or otherwise. (2) There is a player with alignment other than scum or town with a killing ability. I like this sort of question but think I'm not going to be allowed to ask it. Alternative: "do these statements share a truth value".

I think there's some value in asking for a percentage, since they can give us two numbers in a hopefully less cheeky way, especially if we know the numerator will be 1 or 2.

What's the breakdown of town/scum/independent/cult/other? is a great question and I'll ask right now if it's OK, my intuition says it's going to be too much to ask for, but I hope I'm wrong.

I'll also ask for approval for this question, to test whether we can get away with the percentages: To two decimal places, what percentage of factions present in the game (with each individual with an independent win condition counting as a faction to themselves) have three or more members?
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Aug 11, 2016 11:14 am UTC

Madge wrote:The worst case scenario question is good, but you end up with the mod having to account for craziness, I think in one game last year there was a chance for 5/12 of the players being killed N1 if all the powers crystalised in the perfect way

It can get crazier than that. I believe it was Smalltown where it was theoretically possible for over 20 people (out of the 26 players) to die the first night (because almost everyone had a power which allowed them to target one player per night, and one player had a one-shot ability that allowed them to kill everyone who targeted them that night). So depending on what roles are in the game, worst case scenario could tell us absolutely nothing.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:29 pm UTC

Deadline is in 4 days and a bit. Please send me your night-actions (if you have any) before the end of the day!

Votals:
ConMan - 1 (moody7277)
Madge - 1 (Suzaku)

Not voting: everyone else

Tied votals will result in a No Lynch.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby Madge » Thu Aug 11, 2016 1:07 pm UTC

Also, the percentage question was acceptable, but the role distribution question wasn't. Do we want to risk nesting two questions as a percentage? If we do we're risking an answer of 0%, which would at least tell us the numerator.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:02 pm UTC

Madge wrote:Also, the percentage question was acceptable, but the role distribution question wasn't. Do we want to risk nesting two questions as a percentage? If we do we're risking an answer of 0%, which would at least tell us the numerator.

Sounds good to me.

Since deadline's on a Monday and people might not be around much this weekend, I guess now is a good time to start putting down serious votes.

Vote: dimochka

for the reasons given in my analysis post.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby moody7277 » Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:22 pm UTC

Well, when I posted my reads list except for a couple players I was working with maybe 2 posts per person. At this point, I'd want to put my vote on one of them since content -> better info for later instead of voting out someone who is pushing the game forward. I am more comfortable letting Madge be after her more detailed claim, and hope that she will reconsider her stance on scumhunting.

@ those of you who find Carlington scummy (among whom are some of my townier reads). Care to point out where what is pinging you is located?
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Aug 11, 2016 3:41 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:@ those of you who find Carlington scummy (among whom are some of my townier reads). Care to point out where what is pinging you is located?


This post is where he posts his suggestion concerning Madge. His plan sounded to me like it would help scum more than it would help town, regardless of whether Madge was a truthful independendent who is harmless until endgame or a lying serial killer.

This post asks other people to contribute without Carlington actually saying much himself, which is a possible scum strategy (appearing to contribute to the discussion without ever actually saying anything).

Now, neither suggesting bad plans nor having limited D1 content is necessarily scummy, but when he has so little content and I don't like the content that he does have, he's definitely worth looking into.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby JackHK » Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:38 pm UTC

Sorry for not posting today - glad to see so many interesting developments!
I have been practicing with my orchestra these past few days, and will be touring in Ireland over the weekend. This means lots of coach driving, so I will hopefully have more time tomorrow to respond to what's happened recently.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby dimochka » Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:02 pm UTC

sorry will be back tonight, had to go to san diego for work. not caught up on things yet, was hoping to post yesterday and didn't get a chance.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby generalz » Fri Aug 12, 2016 10:47 am UTC

Alright, I didn't expect this game taking so much of my free time so I'll try to give some answers and opinions as much as I could. Please also note that this is only my 3rd Mafia game (the first 2 were introduction to Mafia), so this is taking me a lot of time to figure everything out.

Anyway, here are my thoughts about other people, based on what they claimed so far (if I understood correctly):

Suzaku: says he has an interesting role. Slightly townie.
ConMan: says he has a dull role, with a limited use. Slightly townie.
SirGabriel: a few posts without actually revealing anything about himself. Slightly scummy.
jimbob: says he has a voting-based role. Suspects me because I don't post enough content. Fair enough, here you go :). (still) Slightly scummy.
Carlington,adnapemit,matt,moody: not much information. Neutral.
dimochka: does not like cults. Says he has an uncommon role. Slightly townie.
JackHK: says he has 2 single use powers, with 1 based on votes. Slightly townie.

Noone really stands out for me so far. I have a few questions:
- Would a "no lynch then see what happens during the night" be an effective strategy? Or would we get more information by lynching someone?
- Which question should ask Madge? I have the feeling that the percentage one would be the best.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby adnapemit » Fri Aug 12, 2016 11:39 am UTC

generalz wrote:Would a "no lynch then see what happens during the night" be an effective strategy? Or would we get more information by lynching someone?

From what I've seen no lynch is very rarely the best option, although an example of where it does work was the recent dethy game. But that's quite a different sort of setup to what we have in this game. There are a lot more unknown elements to this game especially player roles and ability.
If we lynch someone best case scenario is we lynch a scum player. In the worst case we lynch town but if this happens we are provided with data that can eventually be put together to help work out who is scum. Scum know who scum is, they will be trying not to lynch other scum members(not that this doesn't mean they won't ever vote for each other but their aim is to convince everyone not to).
Voting no lynch limits us to only gaining information from night kills.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Aug 12, 2016 7:32 pm UTC

Things haven't been as active as I would like, but I am at least partly to blame, having not posted yesterday at all. I am worried that too much of the discussion has been focused on Madge's questions, and nothing else (ConMan, I'm looking at you in particular - how about some discussion of other players?).

adnapemit has nicely summarised why no lynch is generally bad D1 - vote analysis is often a useful piece of information, as is whatever information we can get from the dead player's flip, even if we mislynch. On the other hand, unless people want to claim night action results D2, if we No Lynch, we have almost nothing to analyse. No Lynch may be useful in certain situations, but rarely on D1.

@generalz - are you judging your scummy/townie reads purely on what people have claimed about their role? If so what is the difference between SirGabriel and {Carlington,adnapemit,matt,moody}? If not, what are you judging your reads on? Would you mind explaining why you have me and SirG as slightly scummy? Similarly, why do you find Suzaku, ConMan, dimochka, and JackHK townie?

Townie
adnapemit (reasonable thoughts on players which broadly match my own)
Carlington (early analysis and good questions, when there wasn't much to go on, could do with some more updated opinions)
JackHK (his prodding of moody and later changing his mind sounded genuine, and he has posted some reasonable thoughts on people, but could do with some updates in this regards)
SirGabriel (plenty of thoughts on different players with good reasoning, doesn't focus too much on Madge)

Scummy
ConMan (focused on Madge's question, and not given thoughts on anybody else)
generalz (very low content, unexplained reasoning of reads, which also include one of my townier reads as scummy)
dimochka (due to low content and no thoughts yet on anyone)
moody (very slightly - he makes a fair comment about his few reasons in his analysis post, could maybe do with some more thoughts on people now that there's a little more content)
Suzaku (slightly - early thoughts were good, but he hasn't posted in more than 72 hours, needs to post his thoughts on the majority of players)

Independent
Madge (I'm reasonably confident that she is telling the truth, and I see no issue with her at the moment)

Insufficient data
matt (only one post, late Tuesday my time, and that focused purely on Madge)

Requesting modprod on Suzaku

Loose towniest to scummiest order (excluding Madge and matt):
SirGabriel, adnapemit, JackHK, Carlington, moody, Suzaku, dimochka, generalz, ConMan

FoS ConMan
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generalz
Posts: 10
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:18 am UTC
Location: Central Europe

Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby generalz » Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:42 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@generalz - are you judging your scummy/townie reads purely on what people have claimed about their role? If so what is the difference between SirGabriel and {Carlington,adnapemit,matt,moody}? If not, what are you judging your reads on? Would you mind explaining why you have me and SirG as slightly scummy? Similarly, why do you find Suzaku, ConMan, dimochka, and JackHK townie?


Not at all, sorry if it wasn't clear. I thought the role summary could have some added value, at least for me, in order to have a clear view of what everyone claimed so far (logical reasoning). My reads are something else entirely, based on a general feeling (non-logical reasoning) I got after reading all the posts (and comparing with people's post on previous games, not sure if it is allowed?).

User avatar
JackHK
Posts: 13
Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2015 7:47 pm UTC
Location: magic.catch.wolves

Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby JackHK » Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:21 pm UTC

Should have posted today, but badly misjudged how much free time we'd get on this tour this afternoon/evening (for example, have just spent the last hour dancing the ceilidh!). Hopefully will get some stuff posted tomorrow - I have lots to say, but want to do justice to my thoughts.

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Suzaku
Posts: 279
Joined: Thu May 31, 2012 10:20 am UTC
Location: Tokyo, Japan

Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby Suzaku » Fri Aug 12, 2016 11:51 pm UTC

Sorry for disappearing like that; visitors from head office have meant a few stupid days.

Will be rereading and posting thoughts later this morning.
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