Trial of the Pariahs - Game Over

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dimochka
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby dimochka » Mon Aug 22, 2016 5:42 pm UTC

I'm here, and I was going to vote SirG to put him at L-1 just in case the other people on that list are around, and then realized once again that I can't vote. Again, I have no relation whatsoever to him, I am town and not independent and not scum and not anything else (to my knowledge... this is a bastard game to be fair).
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Aug 22, 2016 5:51 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:I can't vote.

Forgot about that, sorry everyone. I just don't like bastard games, especially when I'm the one with the bastard role.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 22, 2016 6:02 pm UTC

Night has fallen.

Final votals:
SirGabriel - 4 (Carlington, generalz, moody7277, JackHK)
No Lynch - 2 (SirGabriel, matt96)

Not voting: adnapemit, dimochka, jimbobmacdoodle, Madge, Suzaku

SirGabriel has been lynched. Please refrain from posting until D3 starts.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 22, 2016 6:40 pm UTC

SirGabriel is dead. He was an Usurper Cannoneer, aligned with the Mafia.

It is now Day 3. Deadline is set at next Monday 6pm UTC.

10 players alive, 6 votes required to hammer.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby matt96 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 6:52 pm UTC

Well, I supose the question for town now is whether SirGabriel planned to get caught yesterday or not. Also shout out to Jimbob, if you hadn't targeted me, I would have arrested you because it would probably be best if you didn't vote anyways, assuming your role is what I think it is.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby matt96 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 6:53 pm UTC

Oh, and before I forget,
Vote: No Lynch

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby JackHK » Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:17 pm UTC

I was gifted a GPS last night, which gives me a one-shot Tracker ability.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby JackHK » Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:18 pm UTC

EBWOP: nice call, generalz, on the Cannonneer call.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby generalz » Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:21 pm UTC

First things first, here are the 3 persons in my dreams last night:
{Carlington, adnapemit, Madge}

Secondly: Ha! I was right about one of SirG's Cannoneer's role :)
Now, about his Usurper role, that would explain why he tried to lead a wagon on dimochka (=> Godfather).

That would leave us with 2 Mafia, dimochka and (probably) adnapemit, since she matches JackHK's list from yesterday, my list from today, and the 5 people involved in SirG's last effort.

In that case:

Vote: dimochka

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby dimochka » Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:41 pm UTC

I'm not a godfather or related to mafia, but I really have no way to prove it. And with the lack of night kills (likely because of Jack's action) we can afford to make a mistake, so I'm perfectly fine with being sacrificed at this point, BUT I want us to have a clear plan laid out for when (or from everyone else's perspective - if) I come up as town.

I sent the GPS to Jack, but whether or not it works is completely irrelevant to proving my innocence/guilt, so I really don't know what else I can say.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Aug 22, 2016 9:37 pm UTC

Unless anybody feels strongly otherwise, I plan on withholding claiming for a bit until at least adnapemit and moody have claimed (or actively refused to). After that, I'll probably full claim. Is now a good time to mass-claim for the remaining 4 (Carlington, adnapemit, Suzaku, me) of us still to claim?

I believe SirG in that there were two other scum out there, so there is going to be at least one more day after today. No idea about whether adnapemit and dimochka are those two scum or not - I'll have to look at people's results so far to figure things out - but I'm roughly 90% certain that JackHK and generalz are town now and a similar percentage regarding Matt and Madge being the independents they claim to be.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:19 pm UTC

I haven't had much time for this game the past few days
generalz wrote:Now, about his Usurper role, that would explain why he tried to lead a wagon on dimochka (=> Godfather).
I only quickly read what happened but are you saying dimochka is a godfather? Was this suggested before that post?
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby moody7277 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 11:22 pm UTC

So, full claim. I'm an Absorber. Any power used on me I get a copy of along with instructions in its use. I do not know who used it on me. N1 I got a false inventor power with a menu of items to give out, some of which have already been mentioned. N2 I received a Messenger power along with the note I got from that person (Code Adam).

There was a second part to what I got last night which also affects the second role I have. I want to get permission from generalz before I go into further detail on that, though.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby matt96 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:21 am UTC

adnapemit wrote:I haven't had much time for this game the past few days
generalz wrote:Now, about his Usurper role, that would explain why he tried to lead a wagon on dimochka (=> Godfather).
I only quickly read what happened but are you saying dimochka is a godfather? Was this suggested before that post?

Well, as an Usurper SirGabriel would have needed to live longer than the godfather and then win with the rest of the mafia, and he did push rather hard for Dimochka's Lynch before he was caught, and if SirGabriel had not been planning on getting caught, it would make sense to assume that it means that Dimochka's the Godfather.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:49 am UTC

Thank you. That makes sense. ( the mafiauniverse website does not seem to work on my phone so i haven't been able to read the SirG's roles yet)
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby Madge » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:54 am UTC

I was the messenger, that was my other power (pretty useless). I get a 60 character message every night, it's anonymous, I have no clue how to use it to help me.

I sent to Suzaku asking for advice D1 just because I thought I might get some good advice (code: Gentry, which was used in Suzaku's first post back), and to Moody last night just to see if he got my role and thus if his claim was true (I thought it might give him my full role, with the oracle power, but if it just gives the power used on him, it might make the 'messenger' guess (which was correct) more of a lucky guess than evidence).

The codes together form the name of a Survivor contestant (Adam Gentry) by way of bonus breadcrumb. I'd intended to use the codes to prove I sent them rather than for them to prove they received them, but hey, at least I breadcrumbed them.

Now I'm sure you're all waiting for my Q&A:
Q: Which faction(s) does town need to eliminate in order to win?
A: Town needs to eliminate only the Mafia currently.


So... looks like there's no SK, me and matt might be the other two factions, and mafia has lost one player already. I think I need to know how many mafia players there were to start with, but I'd prefer a question that was a bit more 'neutral' as I don't want my questions to be too anti-mafia.

I also need to start thinking about putting my guess in, though we still have 10 players I'm thinking that we still have a long way to go, potentially, but who knows how much of it I'll live to see.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby Carlington » Tue Aug 23, 2016 2:01 am UTC

I have no qualms fullclaiming now.

I'm a town Locksmith. Each night, I can make a lock and give it to any player (including myself). On any subsequent night, the lock can be used to lock that player in overnight, protecting them from any night kills but also preventing the use of their power. Effectively, I give people a self-targeting one-shot Jailer. N1 I targeted SirG (good call, eh?) and I won't claim who I targeted last night just yet, because they're still alive.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Tue Aug 23, 2016 8:55 am UTC

I am a Blob! You shall all be sucked unknowingly into my blobbiness and never be informed.
Blob!
I am also town.
Now lets all take our time and discuss every detail of why generalz has to be scum.

I shall write a proper analysis post after jimbob has claimed.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Aug 23, 2016 9:03 am UTC

FoS adnapemit

The Blob role on Mafia Universe is quite clearly an independent role, and I don't see how it could make any sense as Town.

Anyway... quick post to claim: I am a Town Mediator as I suspect Matt had rightly figured out (which I must say is pretty impressive given all I said was that I didn't want to vote... as it affected my power (or something to that effect - I haven't got time to go back and look)). I roleblocked Matt last night, so that there were no voting shenanigans today. I protected adnapemit N1, which may or may not have had any effect based on SirG's claim and flip. Unless I absolutely have to, I'm sure all Town can agree that it's beneficial for me not to vote. I'll likely be roleblocking my top scum pick tonight to try to block the night kill. Analysis post likely to come this evening.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:06 am UTC

I am town, maybe it was to increase the number of town players. My win condition is to absorb all living town members and for town to win. Two independents, possibly 3 mafia, it wouldn't make sense for there to be another independent.

SirGabriel was lynched and flipped scum and with other players claims things are beginning to make sense.
matt96: Is probably telling the truth about his role at the very least, the magistrate part. We haven't had any deaths for 2 night maybe we could vote no lynch an let him win.
Carlington: If somehow generalz isn't scum then he is probably my next best guess for scum.
Madge: I have no reason to doubt she is telling the truth.
moody7277 /dimochka: Since I don't think all three of moody, dim and SirG is scum it is between him and dim. It makes more sense for dim to be scum since SirG was a usurper but SirG was almost certainly going to be lynched so he might not have been completely honest.
JackHK: I'm still pretty certain he is town.
Suzaku: Has not claimed but is not in my suspects for scum and is most likely town.
generalz: I'm pretty sure he is scum, I' don't trust his list.
jimbobmacdoodle: Since no one was arrested I believe his claim of town.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby moody7277 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 2:09 pm UTC

Got permission back, so I can finish the role claim. To zeroth order, generalz and I are masons, it gets more complicated if either one of us are killed. Had to ask permission in thread because N2 someone cancelled my ability to PM until D4.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby Suzaku » Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:23 pm UTC

Quick, and not necessarily well though out, post.

adnapemit:
Possible, I think, given that scum had a clearly anti-scum (Usurper) role, that a generally anti-town role (blob) would be town. Not proven, but provisionally accepted. That said, a more cogent argument against generalz will be needed.

moody:
I received a poison syringe last night, as expected from claim. Since it's poison, I could stab someone tonight and they would die the following night (if it's NOT fake, of course), meaning we need at least two more nights if we're going to determine whether it will or won't work.
Also, did you receive any ability for losing the PM ability, as for as you can tell?

Madge:
Confirm that the message I received specifically said 60 characters or less, so no qualms that it was sent by Madge. Not really sure that a one direction secret message power can be of much use to town at this stage.

jimbob:
Seems a reasonable claim. No evidence against and some evidence for, AFAICS. Had him as townie anyway, so on the not lynchable list.

dim:
Haven't been reading as scum since late D1. But SirG's actions indicate he could well be. Must reassess trying to overcome confirmation bias.

More tomorrow (I should have more time from tomorrow on, so hopefully no more big gaps).
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:46 pm UTC

@generalz - shouldn't be an issue, but could you confirm what moody said about you being mason-buddies. Could you also confirm that it says in your role-PM that he is Town, please.

@moody - do you know that generalz is town from your role PM? Also what happens if someone uses the fake item?

Assuming that the two vouch for each other, either they are both scum, or neither. That in turn implies that dimochka is probably scum (based on fake inventor role etc).

The lack of kills last night implies that either a) Matt is scum and tried to perform the kill, and/or b) Jack prevented the kills as claimed (and is therefore likely town), and/or c) something weirder. Assuming b) (which seems most likely), that implies our other scum is (assuming there is one) is in {Carlington, Suzaku, adnapemit} (moody is confirmed by mason-buddy), IIRC (not checked back to Jack's result - someone please correct me). This is further reduced to {Carlington, adnapemit}, assuming generalz is town, given that Madge is almost guaranteed the indie she claims to be.

Proposal A: lynch dimochka - his flip basically verifies moody as Town, probably, and therefore generalz.
Proposal B: Carlington considers whether to claim his target, who can then verify his claim, since it sounds fairly townie to me. Assuming this is verified, adnapemit is our other scum, so we can try lynching her D4.

Conveniently, this lines up with SirGabriel's claim as to who his scum-buddies are. What do people think?
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby moody7277 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:02 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@moody - do you know that generalz is town from your role PM? Also what happens if someone uses the fake item?


-- I do know from my role that generalz is town.

-- From the role description I got, the inventions do nothing if used.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby generalz » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:37 pm UTC

@jimbob: I confirm what moody said. I also know from my role PM that he is town.

I don't know yet what to think about adnap's role claim. It sounds a bit weird but why not... Her attempt at discrediting me sounds scummy though... More later!

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby Carlington » Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:53 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Proposal A: lynch dimochka - his flip basically verifies moody as Town, probably, and therefore generalz.
Proposal B: Carlington considers whether to claim his target, who can then verify his claim, since it sounds fairly townie to me. Assuming this is verified, adnapemit is our other scum, so we can try lynching her D4.

FMPOV, I'd rather proposal A happen first up. If dimochka flips town, we proceed to lynch moody and generalz, since dimochka telling the truth implies moody is lying and moody and generalz are vouching for one another. In this instance, me and adnapemit are both town.
Potential drawbacks: If there are two scum and two indies, then a mislynch today and a night kill tonight leaves us at 4/2/2 when town can no longer form the majority without support from independents. In the nicest way possible, I'm not ecstatic about that situation. The smart play for indies in those circumstances would be to side with scum, vote no lynch/force a tie and thus no lynch, and get the win for scum and both indies.
If there's more than two indies or more than two scum, that might already be the situation we're in unknowingly. (I really hope not, I am terrified that this post will be answered with "Good idea...")
On the other hand, FMPOV my target from last night is not confirmed to be town, so claiming my target leaves me open to counter-claims and potentially a mislynch as well. It wouldn't even necessarily be through malicious intent - if some sort of shenaniganising went on last night, me and my target could end up contradicting one another while still being town. I'd be happier claiming my target if I had more information about the likelihood of that happening, so it'd help me if players claimed whether or not they have knowledge of anything that could interfere with (a) my sending or (b) anyone's receiving the lock I sent last night.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby generalz » Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:38 pm UTC

@Carlington: I don't have any knowledge about anything that could interfere with your sending. Also, I did not receive the lock last night.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby JackHK » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:14 pm UTC

I did not receive a gun last night. However, I did receive a different item. I am not aware of any way to interfere with you sending items.

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby JackHK » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:15 pm UTC

EBWOP :mistyped, meant lock

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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby Carlington » Wed Aug 24, 2016 1:40 pm UTC

I want to pre-empt further claims about whether or not players received a lock to say: please let me claim who I sent it to first, as the point of the exercise here is to prove me to be town, and if you leave it until there's only one remaining possibility before I claim then it's pointless because it doesn't prove anything.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:02 pm UTC

Are you asking the person who received your lock to claim then, Carlington? I was a little unclear what you meant. (As a side point, I think they should if Carlington is ok with it, to help clear things up). Regarding your other point, I did not intentionally interfere with your action (though I guess a redirector could theoretically have caused me to block you, but the lack of an arrest means I assume I successfully targeted Matt).

To be clear, my two proposals could be done sequentially, so we could avoid Carlington and his target claiming, should we so wish, and simply lynch dimochka first to see what happens.

Another idea that occurred to me: don't bother trying to lynch scum today - lynch Matt to remove his vote-blocking from the equation. Not sure if it's a good one though, will think about it a bit more.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby Carlington » Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:19 pm UTC

I thought that was the point of your suggestion? First, I claim who I sent the lock to, and next they confirm or deny having received it.
I'm less concerned about the possibility of roleblocking shenanigans coming from town by accident the more I think about it, so I'm happy to claim my target at this point and let things go from there: jimbob, could you confirm you got the lock I sent you?
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby Carlington » Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:23 pm UTC

EBWOP: Re: lynching matt to get rid of his voteblocking. I can see the merits of it but I'm not super down to clown with lynching known indies we can win with when there's scum to lynch we can't win with. I need to sleep on that one though, it's a new line of thinking.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Aug 24, 2016 5:10 pm UTC

I can confirm receiving the lock. Sorry for the confusion, I was unsure what order we were going to do things in, qnd I've had enough trouble focusing at work let alone on this game today :)

Obviously it doesn't 100% guarantee either of us being town for certain, but I think it's a good piece of evidence for your character at least. As such, my focus is going to be elsewhere.

Thinking a little more about possible lynch results. In the worst case, we mislynch, mafia kill someone and Matt arrests Town. That means we're at effectively 3-2-1-1 tomorrow, so unless Madge supports us tomorrow, we're not in a good situation. If we lynch correctly, but the kill and arrest hit town, we're at 4-1-1-1, which is fine, but potentially LYLO, depending on the way the indies jump. Alternatively, lynching Matt means we're at 5-2-1, if the kill is successful, which is a slightly bigger cushion at least, but doesn't help us with dealing with scum. Indeed it is MYLO, unless Madge supports us. Final option is No Lynch today, which puts us at 5-2-1-1, so LYLO if the indies don't go with us. All the above results except the Lynch Matt one require me potentially to vote, and therefore not be able to use my ability.

@Matt, if you succeed in your win condition, do you leave the game? Alternatively, does the game end?

I could try to guess as to who the killer is to try to mitigate things, but there's a risk that my block will fail for some reason, such as an unblockable kill. Alternatively, I could block Matt again to make the first two cases better for us, though still not perfect. Hmm...
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby moody7277 » Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:23 pm UTC

Okay, so my vision as to the state of play currently

via generalz, at least one scum:
{SirG, JackHK, Madge}
{Carlington, adnapemit, Madge}

via JackHK, exactly one scum:
{Carlington, adnapemit, Suzaku, moody7277}

Do not lynch:

Madge: Oracle and Messenger. Despite her earlier declaration she is being useful.
matt96: claims Communist. Unlikely to get his No Lynch win condition, otherwise mostly harmless
generalz: mason buddy
Suzaku: mostly on a gut level, but also cleared if adnapemit is scum.

Don't know:
JackHK: claimed Sensor, looks better after SirG's flip.
Carlington: cleared iff adnapemit is scum.
jimbob: claims to have received lock that Carlington gave him.

Lynchable:

dimochka: fairly obviously Godfather as Usurper SirG would likely been told his opponent
adnapemit: appears on two lists said to contain scum, current opinion of generalz as scummy also point against her
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JackHK
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby JackHK » Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:18 pm UTC

@moody, isn't your reasoning for adnapemit possibly being scum equally applicable to Carlington? He is also on two scum lists...

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Madge
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby Madge » Thu Aug 25, 2016 2:17 am UTC

OK I submitted a question I'm happy with not sure if it will be accepted but I have a couple of alternatives in mind.

I'm happy to defer to town on what happens here tonight. I haven't made my guess yet, I will do so tomorrow night unless my question is answered in a very surprising way or I don't get an answer. I think the answer along with the number of factions, the fact that town need only eliminate the mafia to win, etc will give me enough to make a guess and with my vote, future questions and a lot of luck I should be able to make things shake out on whatever day I need them to. So yeah, come D5 I will be playing in earnest.

I'm a bit scared there's going to be a big body count tonight and I might be fucking up by not guessing now in case it ends with a lynch/mislynch D4. But let's hope we're going OK.
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:20 am UTC

Just gonna point out to you Madge that with likely two mafia alive, there's a reasonable chance town can kill them both over the next two days, i.e. tomorrow could be the last day.
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Madge
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby Madge » Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:40 am UTC

I think I have to bet against that. I think we're going for an end on D5 or D6, because there's a risk that something funky is happening behind the scenes outweighs the risk that we'll get lucky with two scum lynches. My question tonight will hopefully help me work out some stuff too. I plan to submit my guess on D4.
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

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adnapemit
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Re: Trial of the Pariahs - Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:25 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Final option is No Lynch today, which puts us at 5-2-1-1, so LYLO if the indies don't go with us.

We might also be lucky and there will be no kills again tonight. I think that if this option of voting No Lynch did happen that because we would be satisfying matt's win condition, it would occur only if we allowed it an therefore matt should then be vote with us to help town win.
I don't think we have any reason to lynch matt when it would be better to try and lynch scum.

A few thoughts I had about dimochka. There seems to be a lot of indication that dim is the godfather since SirGabriel was pretty determined to get him lynched. I think it's more likely that dim is scum but I have to consider the possibility that since SirGabriel also claimed I was scum that dim could also be wrongly accused. It's harder to trust moody's claim that dim is a false inventor since moody's claim of mason with generalz since I am doubtful that generalz is town. But then SirG "predicted" a false inventor meaning either moody is telling the truth(SirG knowing because dim is also scum) or planned the claim with SirG.

My doubt of generalz is mostly from the lists he gave. It is still possible FMPOV that he is town and either Madge or Carlington is scum. If Carlington is scum then he is also the scum on Jack's list. Madge could be scum pretending to be independent but if she is pretending then she is doing a wonderful job. I just feel like of the possible options of who is scum that generalz is more likely.
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