Ok, here goes with some reads based purely on today's content. I've got the Olympics on in the background, so this might be rather disjointed... Order is loosely those who I feel most important to get thoughts on. Oh, and apologies in advance for the wall of text.
Starting off with generalz: I don't remember what exactly it was that made me consider him townier than before, but on reread his pointing out that there could be more than one scum amongst his claimed results felt like a townie thing to say. If scum were fake claiming this role, I doubt they'd have bothered elaborating on that any further. Has virtually no other content, apart from supporting my suggestion re. lynching SirG. Needs to post some reads, preferably with some more explanations than D1.
@generalz - regarding your action tonight, I think the three person, one (or more) scum could be marginally more useful.
SirGabriel: My instincts today have been that SirG's claim was a little convenient. I mean, it makes sense: SirG starts the lie detector claims, targets his claimed scummiest read, and gets scum, but it almost feels too easy. My gut says that a lie detector is somewhat unlikely as a chosen role, because although it's not often used, it is fairly well known. Interestingly, with regards to the claims from generalz and Jack, he said this "obviously we need to analyze their content" before suggesting Jack being the best candidate because of the overlap in lists. More recently, when he voted Jack, perhaps somewhat conveniently there was nothing that stood out to distinguish Jack from generalz with regards to scumminess. Also, could be viewed to be playing down the likelihood of a magistrate-type role with his discussion of ConMan's flip. If scum!SirG or a teammate targeted dimochka with that ability, it would be in scum's interest to play down the likelihood of scum targeting dimochka, since that would likely make him town. I spotted something else, which I might be overthinking, but in regards to testing moody's ability, SirG said this:
SirGabriel wrote:Obviously, having me target him won't help anything, since I'm accused of being his scumbuddy.
Later on he goes on to claim that he can't use his ability on consecutive nights, but his first point implies that he could target moody tonight. Now, it is possible that he has a different ability that he can use, or it could be a slip, e.g. he forgot he'd said this, and then decides he doesn't want to fabricate a result tomorrow (I'm not sure why not, so this is a bit of a stretch admittedly). I expect a truthful townie would be more likely to point out that he couldn't target moody tonight. Finally, he's barely mentioned several of the players today, which isn't great.
Momentary pause. That last paragraph was a rather tunnelling set of accusations. Let's see if I can look at things from the "SirG is town" perspective: clearly, if SirGabriel is being truthful about his role, it makes perfect sense for him to claim it, and his chosen target is entirely consistent with his D1 stance on dimochka. He tries to look at different possibilities regarding what could explain dimochka's claim, which means he's not outright leaving it as a foregone conclusion. First (I think) to point out that we can verify moody's ability by targeting him. Makes reasonable points about dimochka not knowing his being a false inventor when moody knows he is. His lack of mention of most players kind of makes sense, given the claims we have had, so isn't exactly damning.
JackHK: His claim is consistent with his previous statements, and I could definitely believe it as being accurate (if he'd claimed no scum on the wagon, I'd have been a little surprised for example). He never answered my question regarding his lack of vote D1, which isn't good for him. Seems to be happy to be lynched, which I'm not sure what to make of. I think that sort of statement is more likely to come from town, to be honest. Does some reasonable analysis of his results, although I think it misses out some reasonable possibilities (such as some kind of redirection). Could do with some player reads, like most players.
dimochka: Has posted very little so far this week, which was understandable early on, given his previously stated outside issues, but I'd have expected to see more from him by now. I can't decide whether scum!dimochka would be more likely to claim having given a medkit or not. Given moody's claim, I'm thinking not, i.e. scum!dimochka made the expected claim. Hmm... here's a thought, could dimochka be some kind of jester? I dunno, that was a bit of a random thought, so I don't really think so. I'm torn as to whether to believe the possibility that dimochka was blocked somehow and that moody lied or not. Did not answer my question on his (lack of) D1 vote (but not really an issue given it would have been clear where he'd vote).
moody: Seems to have already made up his mind, and won't be swayed, about what he's doing tonight. Provides a reasonable set of logical deductions about the web of claims. Of course, it's all from his point of view, so omits the cases where he is scum. I also noticed that it doesn't include any cases where anybody is independent, which I think is a significant omission, nor does it mention the possibility that there is a false inventor as well as town-inventor!dimochka (of course in the latter case, it would require dimochka to be roleblocked). As I mentioned before, I'm not comfortable with how both his and SirG's claims conveniently work together. Someone should definitely verify his ability tonight, as discussed earlier.
Carlington: A lot of his thoughts today have matched my own. He could of course be copying mine, but given that he actually expanded on the roleblock/redirect dimochka scenario more than I did, by assigning moody a reasonable role, I think it's likely genuine. In particular, his caution on the JackHK wagon sounds good to me. I'm willing to buy the case that he is more likely an unwitting pawn in a scum strategy (either dimochka's claim or moody's) than a cooperating member. It also conveniently fits with the claim from Jack. As a side point, whilst I don't believe it to be the case, I reckon that if JackHK is scum, Carlington is a reasonable team-mate.
adnapemit: Her second of her two posts sounds like she is rather confused, which I think likely makes her town. Given Jack's claim, I also don't believe she (or Suzaku) is scum, because I reckon that moody is the most likely candidate due to their interaction with dimochka. I think her determination to not lynch simply to prove results is reasonable and another townie point to her.
Suzaku: As with adnapemit, I doubt Suzaku is scum thanks to Jack's result. Again, like Carlington, his thoughts reflect my own, which sticks him in my good books as well. I am uncertain whether he also deliberately ignored the Role Thief option proposed by Carlington, or whether he missed it.
matt: Never responded to my question about his potential independent alignment, nor the one about his (lack of) vote on D1. Has posted very little today at all. Briefly discusses possible setup, suggests No Lynch and follow the pseudo-cops. I don't think we get enough clear information for that to work. Note that along with me, he is about the only player to not be tangled up in all the claims in some way.
@Matt - please go back and answer those questions
. Alternatively, if you are independent, feel free to simply say you are.
Madge: I think it extremely likely that Madge is who she says she is. In answer to her question about why would scum arrest dimochka - to delay his inevitable lynch following SirG's claim to D3, so that scum!SirG doesn't get revealed as scum until it is too late.
Other miscellaneous points:
dimochka and moody should definitely give different things to undisclosed people (breadcrumbing who might be a good idea, in case they die) tonight (but say what they're planning on giving), and should claim first tomorrow (or at least nobody claim whether they received gifts or not until they have claimed) who they gave it to. They should obviously make sure to give it to players who are looking particularly townie.
I don't agree with SirG's belief that ConMan was able to use his ability during the day (and was actually a magistrate-like ability). This just doesn't seem likely for the nature of the ability. Does anybody feel like it's worth the magistrate (or whoever is preventing dimochka's lynch today) claiming
, or at least the remaining players who haven't claimed to say that it wasn't them? I feel like knowing if it is a scum ability would significantly help sort out this mess, as it seems unlikely that scum!dimochka would have been the target of this by his own team.
Town to scum list (omitting likely independent Madge):
JackHK (scum if SirG is town)
dimochka (town if SirG is scum)
Having thought about it and after reading matt's post, I reckon scum are SirG and moody, with possibly one other; Madge is indie; one other player is indie, probably anti-town, unless there are three scum. If I was going to vote today (I still might), I'd be voting SirGabriel at this point.