PyPokemon 2 [Game Over: This Was a Triumph]

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Sabrar
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:50 am UTC

Let's analyze the rejected powers from town/scum perspective. In chronological order:

Spoiler:
SirGabriel: Vigilante with condition. Ability is unlikely to be useful for Town, as if you've been targeted previously by scum there's good chance that you're dead already. Ability might be useful for scum but very situational (would have to be publicly revealed and NOT investigation-type as it would probably lead to a lynch).

Sabrar: Jailer. Bit more useful for scum as they can prevent a power-role from using their ability. Town could get lucky and get a super useful result but the more likely outcome is they block another townie and don't save anyone. Still this a bit closer.

adnapemit: Miller/Godfather. Absolutely useless for Town, super-useful for scum.

jimbobmacdoodle: immunity until D3 then super vulnerable. Scum would probably want to avoid this (although they could have tried for a Jester play the first 2 days, assuring that no-one would vote for them after that). Town might go for the plays described in his post but I understand the reluctance.

emlightened: basically total immunity to night actions (very unlikely to have 3 players targeting you with only 8 others in the game and not everyone guaranteed to have an active night-power). This is super-useful for all factions (but mainly scum as Town wants investigative type powers on them to succeed). However we don't know her other choices and it could easily happen that she received something else that she found more useful.

Esthr: future NK. Only useful for scum, as with 9 players the game will most likely end on D4 or D5, meaning Town would have to shoot on D1 blindly to have any chance of having an actual effect. Scum has the same issues but there are fringe cases where this could be useful.

dimochka: anonymous messages and role reveal doing absolutely nothing. Also claimed PGO. With the messages being anonymous it's hard to see how it could be useful for any faction as nobody will trust the source blindly. If these were really the choices he received then PGO is the most logical option, still claiming it early is in my opinion an anti-Town play.

mpolo: mass NK. Very useful for scum (getting just 1 extra kill on N2 increases their chances tremendously), could be also useful for Town depending if he knows who got torched during the first use.

Main conclusions:
- mpolo and adnapemit claim to have rejected powers that would have been incredibly useful for scum. This might be a ploy to appear townie, adnapemit's role is a simple one that can be faked easily while mpolo posted last (except for Carlington) giving him time to prepare something convincing. IGMEOY on both.
- SirGabriel and Esthr claim to have rejected very situational powers, which is the safe thing to do for all factions.
- I like jimbobmacdoodle's claim, it feels like a true claim and a townie play.
- unfortunately I cannot decide on emlightened without knowing her 2 other options.

@emlightened: without going into specifics, why did you decide to reveal Mew's power instead of Eevee?

Ninja'd: she brings up the same point about cops as I did. That's a good sign in my book.

- I think dimochka's early PGO claim is the most anti-Town play amongst all but it's not sufficient for a vote.

FoS: dimochka

@Carlington: Please start participating.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:49 am UTC

Eevee's power let me repick my role from some other list, but I had no idea what I would be able to pick until I chose Eevee. I didn't want to risk not getting any useful roles, so I had to pick from Mew and [other Pokémon], which both felt rather useful.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Carlington » Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:23 am UTC

Hello all! I rejected Raichu and Snorlax. Snorlax, because of its size, had one-shot lynch immunity. However, because of its slow nature, a kill by any other method would have been unblockable - i.e, doctors, roleblockers, etc. have no effect if they would prevent me being killed. The flavour was that the rest of the town would bring me to the gallows, only to realise that I was too big - but then they'd build a bigger gallows the next day. It seemed like it woudln't be that useful as town - the only real thing it would do would be to force a no-lynch if I was going to be lynched, and no-lynch is almost never the right course of action imo (weird MYLO cases notwithstanding).

I've never played in a game with a PGO, so I can't really comment on how I feel about them being claimed. I do disagree with Sabrar a little, though. I think that claiming straight up seems like a pretty safe play to me, especially in a game of this size. It pretty much ensures you won't be hit by scum or any other kills potentially floating around. It looks like dimochka's going to be pretty firmly around until endgame, for better or worse, and I don't have much more to say about that for now.

On the subject of potential kills floating around/setup spec, while I think it's likely that we've got an indie somewhere, I doubt they have a kill. A vig is possible, given how many power roles there are maybe even two, although I do find myself doubting that as well. I also doubt something like a Lyncher being around, solely because it would be tough to fit with the flavour.

I feel like I probably should be iffy on emlightened for rejecting a useful role, but then I also feel iffy on SG for feeling it necessary to vote when deadline is 6 days away, which leaves me coming away from the whole thing thinking they're probably both town. I like Sabrar's analysis just now. I think I would have done the same thing as jimbob were I in his shoes, so no faults there. I'm interested in what sort of 1-shot power would be useful come late game, and also wonder why mpolo would think he wouldn't last that long. I think Esthr made a good call rejecting that weird vig role, because it's unclear if that could be cancelled, and a lot can change in three days. Given how many powers are around, I think it's odd that SG doesn't think he'd be targeted by anything early on - with that said, being targeted would probably either result in an NK, so the power's useless, or be being targeted by town, so the power only helps scum. On balance, that makes SG look pretty good to me. It seems like rejecting adnapemit's role would be an uncontroversially towny thing to do, which makes me look at it a little more severely - anything that nicely unremarkable in a game of mafia probably deserves remarking. That said, I could also be jumping at shadows. Still, adnapemit, why did you reveal the role you did and not the other?

Ninja'd by emlightened: To make sure I understood you correctly, are you saying that choosing Eevee was basically just a re-roll?
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby adnapemit » Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:17 am UTC

I think I will try to guess people's choice.

SirGabriel's two are interesting choices, they were not picked for strength but skill. My guess for third choice: Sudowoodo or Unknown(that's the pokémon not that my guess is unknown :roll: )
As for Shedinja's power I can agree that it wouldn't be useful.

Sabrar chose Axew and Rapidash, being flavor blind there's less likely to be preference for a type or group of pokémon so I'd make a random guess and say Absol.
I see a jailor role as a good to town it can be used to save someone who might be killed or stop someone from killing. From what I've seen less deaths tend to work in favour of town but only being able to use it every other night might mean that one of the other roles might have been a better choice.

jimbobmacdoodle rejected metapod and ditto. My guess for third choice:Jigglypuff or Togepi
Instant death day 3 IS bad for scum and town alike. Also the existence of a role with immunity to lynch an night kills is a bit worrying my fear of scum being given a role like that makes me think jimbob is looking slightly townier.

emlightened rejected Mew and Eevee. My guess for third choice: Vulpix.
Games vary a lot and thinking that you won't be night killed because you appear scummy is odd. There are plenty of reasons to be night killed and I can only see it being a role beneficial to town. Unless you are scum and know that you won't be night killed.

Esthr rejected Gardevoir and Delphox. My guess for third choice : Gothitelle or Delcatty
I think Delphox's role might be useful for scum who know who their targets are, for town deciding who to kill too early means you are more likely to get it wrong.

dimochka rejected Mewtwo and Zapdos. The PGO claim ruins my guesses because the ones I would have guessed don't seem to fit. So maybe Pikachu or Psyduck..
I agree the PGO claim is bad. And if the other roles are the truth then it was the obvious pick and therefore isn't useful for analysis.

mpolo rejected Charizard an Zygarde. My guess for third choice : Mewtwo or Arceus
I agree Charizards role might do more damage to those trying to help. It's a good defence if you think you will be targeted but more useful to scum.

Carlington rejected Raichu and Snorlax
I am sad he didn't pick the role just because it would have been interesting if we lynched him. But it feels like a more scum role since we lose a day to kill scum.

Most scummy:emlightened and Sabrar
Most townie: jimbob and Esthr
and I don't think I have a high chance of having guessed anyone's pokémon.

@Carlington : I revealed that role because it was the first of the two I read from my PM.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:15 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:I think it's odd that SG doesn't think he'd be targeted by anything early on

It's not that I don't think I'll be targeted, it's that I find it unlikely that I will target someone who has already targeted me without announcing that fact, or that someone whom I would like to kill will announce that they targeted me. Either of those could certainly happen in a long game, but with only 9 players, this is unlikely to last long even without vigs, and there could potentially be several vigs (assuming everyone is telling the truth about their rejected roles, at least 3 kill powers were offered, and I suspect there were actually more than that).

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:04 pm UTC

@Carlington: Yes, its a re-roll-role.

@adnape: I don't have Vulpix, but I did consider choosing them, incidentally. You've probably gotten a couple of your guesses correct.

I don't have much experience with playing games with PGOs, but while I can understand revealing immediately, I'd have been more comfortable with dimochka revealing near the end of the day to ensure that we don't accidentally get killed by them, rather then colouring our perceptions of him from the start of D1.

Will it be likely that the scum actually have a teamkill, or were just offered vig roles to use instead? I'm more inclined to believe that they have a teamkill, but they may also just have a restriction that they can only submit one kill as a group each night. If they do have vig roles, then we should note that scum are more likely to do the kill in an unusual way. Also, it seems possible that scum have lied by stating their taken, not rejected roles, instead of making one up/being truthful. I don't think it will likely be useful information, but it's something I'm keeping in mind.

(Updated version of Ethsr's list:)

SirGabriel: Shedinja - alternate vigilante, Smeargle - ?
Sabrar: Rapidash - alternate jailer, Axew - ?
adnapemit: Mew - miller/godfather, Aurorus - ?
jimbobmacdoodle: Metapod - invulnerable until D3, then very vulnerable, Ditto - copycat ability?
emlightened: Mew - immune to up to 3 night actions, Eevee - re-role.
Esthr: Delphox - alternate vigilante, Gardevoir - ?
dimochka: Mewtwo - anon messaging & one-shot ability, Zapdos - Announces role and having no powers.
mpolo: Charizard - alternate vigilante, Zygard - late-game one-shot power.
Carlington: Snorlax - one-shot lynch-immunity, more vulnerable to NKs. Raichu - ?

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Esthr » Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:51 pm UTC

I've tried twice now to make a decent analysis post, but work is very distracting at the moment. I'll try again in the afternoon. For now I will

FoS: SirGabriel

for suggesting that townies should lie and for his premature vote on emlightened.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:07 pm UTC

If people think it's too early to vote, I don't mind doing an

Unvote

But usually there are joke votes at the beginning, and since we seem to have skipped that phase, I just went with a semi-serious one instead, hoping to get some discussion started.

Also, I don't see how scum would benefit from townies lying about what roles they rejected, while it could have been helpful for town, for the reasons I listed. I didn't expect anyone to actually lie, since I suspected the roles were more or less balanced, but I didn't want a townie to admit to rejecting a cop and a doctor because lying is always considered scummy, and then get nightkilled for telling the truth. Also, I never told any townies to lie, I merely suggested a possible strategy for us to discuss and accept or reject as a group.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby mpolo » Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:47 pm UTC

The big danger with the alternate-kill power is that I wouldn't necessarily know who had targeted the person I torched, and I was envisioning a huge chaos of people dying. It would have been massively overpowered for scum, perhaps interesting for town with a much larger group, but I might still have shied away from it, because it could really cause several deaths on N2 if we got unlucky with who targeted whom.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Snark » Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:13 pm UTC

Deadline in ~5 days.

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:14 pm UTC

Were the powers of each role determined before or after alignments were assigned?

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Snark » Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:08 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:Were the powers of each role determined before or after alignments were assigned?


No comment beyond the following:
Snark wrote:Bastardry: Minimal or none. If present, will be for balancing reasons and editing pre-game.
Player's alignments were assigned randomly. I reserved the right to edit powers pre-game for balance reasons if necessary.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:51 pm UTC

Ok here are my thoughts on the rejected roles:

Rejected roles summary:
Spoiler:
emlightened: Mew - immune to night actions if under three people targeted. Eevee - ability reroll
Esthr: Delphox - delayed night kill
adnapemit: Mew - can create fake role for investigations
Carlington: Snorlax - 1 shot lynch immunity
SirGabriel: Shedinja - can kill someone who had targeted them previously
mpolo: Charizard - torch target + all targeting targeted, second torch kills; Zygarde - 1 shot late game power
dimochka: Mewtwo - anonymous message (plus something else), Zapdos - publicly reveal character
Sabrar: Rapidash - alternate jailer

emlightened - I think rejecting Eevee is a null tell, without knowing emlightened's chosen character. This version of Mew would be good for either town or scum. Town, because it prevents her being the target of scum night kills. Scum, because it prevents town getting investigation results from. Of course, it's also not so great for town in that investigations wouldn't clear her either. Overall, I think this would be quite a powerful scum ability, so I think not choosing it is probably a reasonable town tell.

Esthr - delayed night kill. As scum, an additional (slightly delayed) night kill is generally beneficial. It can be useful for town, but only if you're good at identifying scum, so I'm leaning town here as well.

adnapemit - creating a fake role (I'm assuming not alignment) for investigations is a weird ability, in my opinion. If I've understood it correctly, it would only help against a role-cop, and then only as scum (since a fake investigation result is almost certainly bad). Given the relative weakness of the ability, I'm putting this down as a null tell, possibly ever so slightly town leaning.

Carlington - lynch immunity isn't really beneficial for town in my opinion, but could be somewhat beneficial for scum, since it wastes a lynch, so leaning slightly town on this.

SirGabriel - could kill someone who targeted them previously. As said earlier, extra kills are useful to scum, but in this case, he'd have to know who had targeted him, which is difficult to pin down, so null tell, possibly very slightly town lean.

mpolo - mpolo himself said that Charizard's ability would cause too much carnage. Such carnage would be very beneficial to scum, so unless mpolo lied about his ability or his chosen ability is equally powerful, mpolo seems pretty solidly town.

dimochka - if dimochka is telling the truth about the abilities, I'm not surprised he picked the PGO. On the other hand, an ability that only announces publicly who a person is is almost completely pointless, as far as I can tell. My instinct says that the mod wouldn't give such a weak ability in comparison to all the abilities I've seen, so I suspect dimochka of lying, or at least omitting some of the ability, so leaning scum. FoS dimochka

@dimochka - was there anything else in Zapdos's ability?

Sabrar - a jailer is almost equivalent to a roleblocker for scum which is quite beneficial for them I reckon. On the other hand, it being an alternate night one makes it rather weaker for both sides. Null tell.

So, my only real scum pick is dimochka currently. I think the PGO claim is a little weird, but I can understand picking it if there's a late game ability attached to it. I think mpolo is almost certainly town, and Esthr very likely is as well. After that, I'd put emlightened and Carlington as my next town picks.

I'll try to do a bit of behaviour analysis over the next couple of days before placing a vote.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby dimochka » Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:22 am UTC

@jimbob - no, that was the whole thing. I questioned it too (because i thought there should be some extra hidden mechanics) and was essentially told that this was it. Believe me, Zapdos is a lot cooler than what I picked, but zapdos's ability to me was essentially the same as announcing to everyone that I'm vanilla, and that would be boring to me, even if that confirmed me as town (which I am not even sure that it would).

Re: PGO - if you look at previous games on these forums, almost everyone claims PGO off the bat. Having never been PGO before, I figured this was the right way to play this instead of holding it back for later. I think claiming PGO towards the end of the day would look more suspicious, and getting power roles killed because I didn't claim just in case scum hits me is even worse.

i'll have an actual analysis later today. on my way back from school.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby dimochka » Thu Feb 11, 2016 3:26 am UTC

EBWOP

mewtwo's 1-shot power was to force someone to vote for themselves for one day (without the ability to unvote that day) and have that be announced publicly. I didn't feel like that was a townie power (neutral at best), and I don't like to count on being around for endgame.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:38 am UTC

Snark wrote:I reserved the right to edit powers pre-game for balance reasons if necessary.[/b]

I don't think this happened at all. I would assume that we have at least 6 Town, meaning at most 3 people lied about their rejected roles. However there are more than 3 powers that could have benefited scum tremendously while offering little to town (both versions of Mew, Mewtwo, Charizard and Snorlax). Aside: townie could have lied in order to disguise a very powerful role but that would mean - given that there was no 'safe' claim available - that s/he received 3 extremely good options while others received useless ones (Zapdos, Delphox).
Based on sheer numbers (in that most of the people are telling the truth) I feel that no balancing was done. Eevee for example is also much more powerful than the average as it basically gives 5 options instead of 3.

On another note scum will never admit rejecting a powerful townie role (e.g. Cop) and there is probably no ability that would check the truthfulness of these claims unless SirGabriel has one and that's why he instigated this mass-claim to see who would lie (but then he would not suggest that townies could lie...). So I think scum could safely 'claim' whatever ability they want, especially if they didn't claim first and so got a good impression on how a 'typical' role looks like. Therefore I would be very careful in using the rejected roles as an indication of alignment even though I tried it myself.

@dimochka: could you point out to me the games where PGO claimed early? I did a quick search but only found Secret Santa (where I didn't claim it), Mafia 102 (where generalz didn't claim it) and Smalltown 1 (where it was public knowledge) in recent history. However I did not look at games before 2015 so I could have missed any number of those.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby adnapemit » Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:35 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:adnapemit - creating a fake role (I'm assuming not alignment) for investigations

No, alignment was included.


Why would anyone have to lie about the powers? Everyone had a choice of 2 to reveal. Even if both were very townie roles they could claim that the third was also.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:56 am UTC

adnapemit wrote:Why would anyone have to lie about the powers? Everyone had a choice of 2 to reveal. Even if both were very townie roles they could claim that the third was also.

Let's say a townie gets the choice between Cop, Doctor and Watcher (all normal). S/he takes Cop because that is guaranteed to have a result every night while the others depend on the action of the rest of the players. Which rejected role should s/he reveal? Both are valuable to Town and almost useless for scum. By admitting that a powerful townie role was rejected s/he implies that the accepted role is also very powerful, making him/her a prime target for the scum kill.
However if scum received Godfather, Doctor and Watcher for example, obviously they would choose the first and now they face the same dilemma. They reveal a powerful rejected role, but surprise, surprise they survive N1. Now Town knows that something is up. Remember that players can't target themselves, so you cannot claim a self-save from being a Doctor, making you dependent on others to provide an alibi.
I think this was SirGabriel's reasoning as well (or close to it) when he mentioned the possibility of townies lying to protect themselves.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Esthr » Thu Feb 11, 2016 4:04 pm UTC

Regarding the rejected role claims, I don't think the actual role matters very much, at least until we have reason to believe someone has lied. There are many reasons scum could truthfully throw out a scummy role and town could reject a strong town role. And trying to discuss all these possibilities leads to wine very quickly.

Much more important seems to be the reason given for rejecting each role, so let's try this.

SirGabriel: Rejected a vigilante because it was too situational. So, he may have chosen it if the limitation was weaker? As discussed, I don't think more night kills benefits town, so this reasoning seems slightly scummy.

Sabrar: Rejected a jailer. I'm extrapolating from his later analysis post, he rejected it because it was more likely to hinder town than help. Other posts have good content, and he pushed for scum-hunting and analysis early (without proposing anti-town strategies like in Alternating9P). Moderately town.

adnapemit: Rejected a potential godfather because it wouldn't be useful to town. This is absolutely true, but is such an obvious conclusion that it doesn't have any weight. Neutral.

jimbobmacdoodle: Rejected Metapod, which grants immunity for the first two days. He describes a possible strategy to draw the night kill, but points out it would be too vulnerable from D3 on, and that scum would automatically win at LYLO. I feel comfortable about this analysis. Medium-high town.

emlightened: Rejected immunity from up to 2 night actions because she thought she wouldn't be targeted for the night kill. By announcing that, she is now a pretty good target for the kill, so this reasoning seems weak. Using her meta as a defense also stands out a bit. Slightly scum.

dimochka: Rejected an anonymous messaging ability and Zapdos, which really doesn't do much. Both of these roles are so weak there isn't much to say. Claimed PGO because it gets a stronger ability later in the game. I would probably naively claim early if I were in the same position, so I'll withhold judgement. Given the other two roles, I don't think choosing the PGO is a scumtell. Overall neutral.
Update based on more Mewtwo details. Like Snorlax, this ability would be very useful to scum on LYLO, so I'm glad it was rejected.

mpolo: Rejected an AoE vigilante power, because it would cause havoc with town aligned roles. This ability is guaranteed to hit at least one town (unless mafia target mafia for some reason), so I completely agree with his reasoning. Leaning town.

Carlington: Rejected a one-shot lynch immunity because it forces a no-lynch, which is almost never useful to town. This is true and the fact that the ability would be so useful to scum at LYLO makes me feel good about this rejection. Nothing stands out in his analysis. I'd like a bit more content, but real world issues are hardly a scumtell. Leaning town.

With all that said,
Double FoS: SirGabriel
for his extremely defensive post in response to my FoS.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Feb 11, 2016 4:47 pm UTC

Esthr wrote:SirGabriel: Rejected a vigilante because it was too situational. So, he may have chosen it if the limitation was weaker? As discussed, I don't think more night kills benefits town, so this reasoning seems slightly scummy.
Yes, if the vig power was less limited, and the third option was as useless as Smeargle was, I would have gone with the vig.

Also, thoughts on possible Pokémon chosen:
Sabrar - Rejected Axew and Rapidash. Could be a Pokémon from any generation, probably something that looks more cute than intimidating, but not necessarily weak.
jimbob - Rejected Ditto and Metapod, both from first generation. A lot of people prefer to stick with the original 151, I'm guessing jimbob is one of them, so his chosen Pokémon is probably one of the originals. I'm guessing he was thinking along the same lines as myself, picking some of the more unique Pokémon based on what abilities he expected them to be given. So if I had to guess, I'd say he's Chansey, Snorlax, Eevee, or Mew.
emlightened - Rejected Mew and Eevee. Probably has another Pokémon from the first generation, most likely something cute. Could be something chosen partially for skill, or perhaps entirely due to cuteness.
Esthr - Rejected Gardevoir and Delphox. Best guess, based on what those two have in common, is a fully-evolved, relatively cute psychic-type Pokémon.
dimochka - Claims to be a PGO who rejected Mewtwo and Zapdos. There's so much in common between those two that I can guess his choice with much more confidence than anyone else's: he's probably a legendary Pokémon from the first generation (Articuno, Moltres, or Mew). Dragonite or Charizard might also be plausible, perhaps even Snorlax. Problem is, none of those sounds like a PGO to me.
mpolo - Rejected Charizard and Zygarde. Hard to say, since those two don't have much in common. Probably a fully evolved Pokémon with a relatively high base stat total.
Carlington - Rejected Raichu and Snorlax. Probably went with a strong, fully-evolved Pokémon from the first generation.

FoS dimochka
because his claims seem inconsistent based on flavor.

I think dimochka should fully claim his role (I don't see what harm that could do, given that he's already claimed his power), as well as his reasoning behind picking the three Pokémon he picked.

I should be around tonight, but in case I forget, I'll say it now: I'm unlikely to be able to post tomorrow or Saturday.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Snark » Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:54 pm UTC

Deadline in ~4 days.

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

Votals:
None
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby adnapemit » Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:07 am UTC

SirGabriel wrote:dimochka - Claims to be a PGO who rejected Mewtwo and Zapdos. There's so much in common between those two that I can guess his choice with much more confidence than anyone else's: he's probably a legendary Pokémon from the first generation (Articuno, Moltres, or Mew). Dragonite or Charizard might also be plausible, perhaps even Snorlax. Problem is, none of those sounds like a PGO to me.
Those matched my original shortlist exactly...then I remembered the PGO claim...
I've thought about it a bit more and Gyarados might be a possibility for a PGO but even that is a stretch. I'm beginning to doubt dimochka is a PGO because I could match a few pokémon with a PGO role but they seem very unlikely to be picked.

SirGabriel didn't try to guess mine. :(
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:29 am UTC

Could there be a role that is dependent on knowing another player's actual Pokemon? If not (or unlikely) then I second SirGabriel's request of dimochka doing a full claim.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:20 am UTC

Except for a cop-type role, I don't think that one would have been incorporated, particularly given that type matchups weren't.

I'd like dimochka to do a full role-reveal, too, particularly given how convenient
dimochka wrote: I also won't have any other powers for a while but once I do it'll be very helpful to town.
is.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:37 pm UTC

Random thoughts upon reread regarding rejected Pokemons:
@mpolo: would you have been aware who got torched by Charizard beside your initial target? Would it have been made public (like how being poisoned became public in Secret Santa)?
@jimbobmacdoodle: why did you choose Ditto as one your 3 Pokemon if you already suspected that its ability would not be useful for town?

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:24 pm UTC

adnapemit wrote:SirGabriel didn't try to guess mine. :(

Sorry, missed it since it wasn't at the start of a post. Probably something cute, perhaps fairy type.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Feb 12, 2016 3:41 pm UTC

@Sabrar - I chose 3 fun sounding Pokemon without really thinking about their possible abilities too much. Ditto's ability as it turns out might have been useful for town, but I chose my other Pokemon because I felt it might be fractionally more useful.

Don't think I've said this in this game yet, but I'm going to be away for the next couple of days until Sunday evening, so I don't know if I'll get time to post for the next 48 hours or so. I'll try to get a solid reads post in once I'm back.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Snark » Fri Feb 12, 2016 7:13 pm UTC

Deadline in ~3 days.

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

Votals:
None
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Esthr » Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:10 pm UTC

I was skeptical of trying to guess anyone's chosen role based on patterns in their rejections. For instance, SirGabriel and adnapemit guessed that I chose a psychic pokemon based on Delphox and Gardevoir, when they were simply my favorite party members from Y and Alpha Sapphire, respectively.

With that said, dimochka's two first-gen legendaries is much more suggestive, and combined with his PGO claim I would not be opposed to a role claim from him.

I'm honestly more concerned about his secondary claim that he gets a useful power later. Some speculation about this. If it's because of evolution, like jimbob's Metapod, then it won't be anything from SirGabriel's list. I was also thinking it could be a move which has a charging period like Solar Beam, or an alternate Snorlax which eventually falls asleep. But again, I don't see how the PGO aspect fits with any of this. Hopefully dimochks's response will shed some light.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Esthr » Fri Feb 12, 2016 8:15 pm UTC

EBWOP

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Don't think I've said this in this game yet, but I'm going to be away for the next couple of days until Sunday evening, so I don't know if I'll get time to post for the next 48 hours or so. I'll try to get a solid reads post in once I'm back.

SirGabriel wrote:I should be around tonight, but in case I forget, I'll say it now: I'm unlikely to be able to post tomorrow or Saturday.

I don't feel as bad about being unavailable on Saturday. I can post later today if there's more activity.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby emlightened » Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:00 am UTC

I'm a bit surprised that nobody's actually done an analysis post yet that didn't focus on Pokémon choice.

adnapemit: Fine with revealing rejected Pokémon, but more reluctant about roles, seemed fine with just one. She thinks its possible to infer roles from the characters, if you really know the Pokémon. She later posts a list of what Pokémon she expects people to have chosen. It seems like she's trying to infer potential roles for players, whilst not asking anyone outright. The information she provided isn't the most helpful, but does help other players see what likely picks may be. Neutral.

Carlington: Slightly against massclaim, but hasn't done a PyP game before so doesn't press. Defends PGO claim due to small group size. Strongly inclined to think of SirG as town, both due to my arguing with him, and refusing a role which is very helpful to scum. Feels lurky, but cites IRL problems. Slight scum lean.

dimochka: Early PGO claim; further claimed to have some other power which will be helpful to town late-game, but gave no specifics. While certainly possible, it's also a defense that stops town from lynching him and stops scum from NKing him. Possible survivor-type indie, but I think it's more likely he's scum. He later claimed two of the least useful roles given in the entire game, so I'm inclined to believe that at least some of this is fake, and that he's scum. Hasn't posted much, almost seems to be active-lurking. Strong scum lean.

Esthr: Looks at setup possibilities, dislikes lying about role powers and supports only revealing one role over that. Expected super effective/not very effective role abilities.Prefers to analyse why the roles were rejected, not what was rejected, which seems sensible.


Sorry for the short post, but I'm too tired to do much more. Until then, I'll vote on the scummiest player so far (but may change based on finishing off analysing, or a full role reveal).

Vote: dimochka

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby adnapemit » Sat Feb 13, 2016 11:36 am UTC

Esthr wrote:I was skeptical of trying to guess anyone's chosen role based on patterns in their rejections. For instance, SirGabriel and adnapemit guessed that I chose a psychic pokemon based on Delphox and Gardevoir, when they were simply my favorite party members from Y and Alpha Sapphire, respectively.

I didn't use the type as a criteria in my guess for yours. Delphox and Gardevoir have been key party members for me as well so I picked another 2 that also used a lot but were similar in reason to why I kept Delphox and Gardevoir in my party. But your mention of it being Alpha Sapphire rather than just Sapphire makes me think I should have picked both of my guesses from gen V.

I was going to do a non pokémon choice analysis today since there is now more content but I have less time than expected. Hopefully I'll be able to do it tomorrow.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:45 pm UTC

@emlightened: I'm not sure there is enough material from everybody outside of Pokemon selection to draw solid conclusions. Anyway I probably won't be around too much tomorrow so here are my current reads:

SirGabriel: seems much more invested than in previous games I played with him, possibly due to liking the flavor and being familiar with it. Suggests good idea to start discussion then brings up the possibility of townies lying. I can understand his reasoning, however it would have been better in my opinion to find an avenue where such tactics are never required. His vote on emlightened looks scummy to me as 1) I don't agree with his reasoning that rejecting Mew is anti-town and 2) she could have easily received a more beneficial role. His unvote also feels weak to me, townies should not let others dictate the pace of the game. So there are a number of little things that make me suspicious, however I'm also getting actual scum-hunting vibes from him and I've learnt that people can make honest mistakes. My gut says town, but IGMEOY.

emlightened: lots of content regarding her rejected roles. My earlier thoughts still apply, rejecting this version of Mew is more towny than scum in my opinion. Eevee is a null-tell as the third choice obviously offered more concrete benefits. Brings up interesting point that scum would reveal their actual choice. I don't think that's the case as investigative powers or just simple night action results could easily reveal this. Could be scum trying to confuse us, could be genuine town. Encourages discussion by focusing on actual content, unfortunately doesn't finish her analysis. It pings me a bit because she only makes 'safe' reads (1 neutral, 1 scummy because of lurking, 1 scummy who was called out by multiple people and 1 which she does not finish). This looks to me like scum trying to get the layout first and then bandwagoning when things get clearer. However irl could definitely apply. Currently leaning slightly scum, but willing to reevaluate once she finishes her reads.

Esthr: interesting set-up speculation in that she mentions the possibility of a jester which I think would not be appropriate for a small game (as it makes town's job a lot harder). Probably null-tell though. Decent analysis regarding the reasons behind rejecting certain Pokemons, although I think that speculating on this is a bit of wasted effort without knowing the abilities that were actually accepted. Nothing pings me right now, so leaning slightly town.

dimochka: nothing new to add, seems scummy due to multiple reasons already listed. Seems to have irl issues as he promised some analysis Wednesday evening but hasn't been on the forums since then.

jimbobmacdoodle: bit less activity from him than I'm used to, but his question to the mod was useful and his replies and thoughts are reasonable. Currently leaning town.

adnapemit: has little actual content, her analysis focuses mostly on rejected roles which isn't that useful. Obviously I disagree with her that jailer would be that useful to town, but this is a personal preference (mostly depending on how well you think can second-guess scum). Feels a bit active lurking but she just promised more analysis, so neutral for now.

Carlington: has one post with actual content, stated irl issues. Snorlax would have been amazing for scum, essentially requiring 1 less mislynch for them to win. So either very strong indication of town or brilliant bluff from scum (which he previously denied of being capable of). Therefore currently leaning town but I admit that's very hypocritical as it's based only on his rejected role. Definitely need more content from him.

mpolo: second lurkiest with no post since Tuesday despite participating more actively in Dollhouse. Only content is Charizard claim which is a null-tell for me until he answers my earlier question. Looking scummy.

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Feb 13, 2016 5:35 pm UTC

Esthr wrote:I was skeptical of trying to guess anyone's chosen role based on patterns in their rejections. For instance, SirGabriel and adnapemit guessed that I chose a psychic pokemon based on Delphox and Gardevoir, when they were simply my favorite party members from Y and Alpha Sapphire, respectively.

Yours was also one of the ones I was least confident about. And like I said, I could be completely wrong about these guesses, and even if I'm right about all the others, it doesn't really give us particularly useful information about anyone but dimochka. Although now that I think about it, I'm inclined to doubt that any cute Pokémon would have been given a vig ability.

Sabrar wrote:SirGabriel: seems much more invested than in previous games I played with him, possibly due to liking the flavor and being familiar with it.

Yes, I like the flavor, and I'm much more familiar with it than with the flavor of any other game I've played in.

Sabrar wrote: His vote on emlightened looks scummy to me as 1) I don't agree with his reasoning that rejecting Mew is anti-town and 2) she could have easily received a more beneficial role. His unvote also feels weak to me, townies should not let others dictate the pace of the game.

The primary purpose of my vote was to start discussion, since it seemed to me that the discussion wasn't really going anywhere at that point. Once we had a good discussion going, there was no real reason to leave it there, especially since emlightened's Pokémon choice is no longer the scummiest thing that's happened.

Hopefully I'll be able to do an analysis post tomorrow, and I'll put in a vote then (probably for dimochka, if they haven't posted a convincing defense by then).

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby mpolo » Sat Feb 13, 2016 7:12 pm UTC

Have I really not posted here? Sorry about that. I don't have a lot of time today, but the answer to the Charizard question is unknown. The person I targeted and anybody who targeted them would have been "torched". Anyone who was "torched" a second time would be killed. My gut feeling was that nothing would be posted, but that the "torched" people would be informed. This is because any public listing would have given me an extra "watcher" power that was not listed on the package. But I didn't bother to clarify the details of the power with the mod.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Feb 13, 2016 8:04 pm UTC

No reason to wait until tomorrow when I'm apparently free right now.

adnapemit - Seems to have good flavor knowledge (although she misspelled Unown). Hasn't posted much analysis yet besides predicting people's Pokémon choices. Her guesses for my and dimochka's Pokémon seem completely off the wall, but otherwise nothing really stands out. Neutral. (After rereading Carlington and emlightened, her claim to have rejected Mew seems significant. Not enough to call her scummy, but IGMEOY.)

Carlington - Only posted twice so far. Makes a fair point about adnapemit rejecting Mew, but otherwise seems to call everyone townie. I don't like analysis posts that call everyone townie or neutral, so I'm putting him at slightly scummy until we get more analysis from him.

dimochka - Claimed PGO, then claimed his rejected roles. Something seems fishy about his role claims, as I mentioned before. I'm labeling him scummy, though that might change when he claims his role if he can convince me he's telling the truth.

emlightened - Claims to have rejected night-action-immunity in favor of a better role. Mentions the possibility of scum not having a team kill, which seems like an odd suggestion - I've seen games where each scum member can only use one action per night, including the team kill, but none where there was no team kill. Mentions possibility that scum stated the role they accepted as the role they rejected (I would find this suspicious, but given the role she claimed to reject, it's very unlikely that she is scum and accepted Mew, as that would be very easy to check). Partial analysis post, votes dimochka. Her comment about the team kill seems odd to me, and I still think Mew is a more useful role for town than for scum, but I'm putting her as neutral. She does make a good point though, so I think we need to keep an eye on adnapemit, as that version of Mew is one scum!adnapemit easily could have accepted and then claimed to have rejected.

Esthr - Analysis generally seems sound, although I disagree with her analysis of my play. Opposed inviting townies to lie because it would help scum to sow confusion; I'm not following that logic. Hopes that there are good investigative powers in the game, since no one claims to have rejected one. (For what it's worth, I did reject an investigative power, and if all the investigations in this game are as bad as Smeargle's, they won't be very helpful. I wouldn't have gotten any particularly useful results unless I investigated the same player three nights in a row.) Feels slightly off to me, but that might just be OMGUS, so I'll put her as neutral.

jimbobmacdoodle - Seems like typical jimbob. He's very hard for me to read, since he always gives detailed analysis whether he's scum or town. I'm putting him as slightly townie for the moment.

mpolo - No flavor knowledge, no content so far except regarding his own Pokémon choices. I'd like to see some analysis from him.

Sabrar - No flavor knowledge. Thinks town!dimochka shouldn't have claimed PGO. Opposed to townies lying, but understands the reasoning behind the suggestion. Her analysis seems good to me, and we both reached similar conclusions about everyone. Slightly townie.

Vote: dimochka

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Snark » Sat Feb 13, 2016 8:42 pm UTC

Deadline in ~2 days.

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

Votals:
2 - dimochka (emlightened, SirGabriel)
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby dimochka » Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:02 pm UTC

First off - I'm back, sorry for absence. Ok let's get to it.

I will not claim my role or power. I will claim that I will have an additional power D3, but revealing that power will possibly make it worth it for scum to get rid of me earlier, so no. Also my 3rd pokemon is not legendary, but it's a favorite of mine. For what it's worth, it evolves twice.

I'll take a look at previous games and try to find PGO claims, but honestly it doesn't really matter. You can also take a look at the PGO play advice on mafiascum.net. If I get a PGO role in the future, I plan to play it the exact same way. Doesn't mean it shouldn't be questioned and couldn't be a lie, but that's my opinion.

Now to more analysis, somewhat random order
SirGabriel - I don't like that he's siding with sabrar for "reaching the same conclusions". but I don't think that he's scummy
mpolo - not much content, need more so far.
Sabrar - being too careful with his posts. has a lot of reads but no vote. leaning scum.
adnapemit - need more content. analyzing rejected roles is not gonna get us anywhere in my opinion. at least judging based on how i picked.
esthr - i like that esthr's against lying about power roles. leaning town
carlington - would like more content. thanks for defending my pgo claim, but that could be a good way to play d1 and seem townie. neutral so far.
jimbob - the fact that he claimed having additional abilities D3 makes me think he might be a bit more town than scum. but his content so far has been asking me a few questions and analyzing rejected pokemon.
emlightened - her last post shows that she actually tried to analyze what people are saying rather than regurgitating what came earlier. leaning town.

anyone who's trying to base their votes off whom i rejected is completely off base. I'm fine with being suspected for what i post, but my rejected pokemon will not get you anywhere.

for some reason sabrar's choices yet lack of vote really ping me. I can't place my finger on it. This is where my vote would go, but I want to see some responses first.
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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby Sabrar » Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:38 pm UTC

Quick reactions before sleep.

@SirGabriel: I don't like votes being used as conversation-starters, in my opinion they should be taken more seriously. This is a personal preference though, so for now your explanation looks reasonable to me. BTW I prefer he/him.

@mpolo: thanks for the answer, you bring up a good point with the 'unintended watcher' situation. Without knowing who got torched the ability loses much of its appeal so it makes sense for Town to reject it. Scum however would have definitely taken it (I don't think they would have been offered an even more powerful choice), so the situation here is the same as with Carlington I feel. Have to give this more thought.

@dimochka: So I'm scummy because I was the first to FoS you but also wanted to give you the chance to defend yourself? Seriously? If you look at my two previous games where I was town you would see that I only voted when I felt quite sure in my choice. With you gone for more than 2 days and the deadline still far away I wasn't ready to commit to a vote yet.
Your no-claim and analysis looks very suspicious to me and you're also accusing me of the same thing that you yourself are guilty of, so OMGUS much?

mafiascum.net wiki wrote:The ideal play for a PGO is to get targeted by the Mafia, while not being targeted by any Town power roles. However, safer play is to claim directly -- this keeps other Town power roles safe, but also ensures the Mafia will not target you. Note that by claiming, you are opening yourself up to potentially being policy lynched at some point during the game.
A very risky strategy is to hint at a power role, causing the scum to target you, and, as a 1 for 1 trade with scum is in the town's favor, you will have helped the town.

I think this is exactly what I said so I have no idea what you're getting at. Nowhere does it say that you have to claim it as your first act of D1.

Vote: dimochka

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Re: PyPokemon 2 [Day 1: Kanto's Courage]

Postby dimochka » Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:07 am UTC

if anyone else wants to vote for me, i'm happy to hammer myself. if this is what a pgo claim gets me, great. i would just advise to go through my reads very carefully because more often than not the first two people on a lynch are town and the third is scum. i'm pretty sure this is the case now.

if anyone else wants me to answer other questions i'll be happy to.
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