Some more reads/summaries of our less frequent posters. If you would prefer a different formatting or style to how I do these sorts of posts (e.g. spoilers, max one player per post etc), please let me know:ConMan:
Starts off with agreeing with various players re. aliens as a priority and other scum after that. Suggests Xela as baseline plus two other investigation targets for Darryl. Thinks we should determine Suzaku's alignment, and then vote for him. Unsure what to do up to that point. Discusses how Dr Ug's results are essentially clues in a logic puzzle. Following on from Sungura and faubiguy's suspicion of voting for Suzaku, he repeats his previous statement on the idea, but with a more solid against it until alignment confirmed opinion. Is otherwise scared of them being alien or werewolf. Thinks D1, investigators should target different groups, but co-ordinate more on later days. Votes Lawrencelot for voting roadierich without discussion. Would much rather be made a doctor than a nurse, which is not surprising (I'm not sure there's anyone where this wouldn't be true), but does actually volunteer to be one. This could be alien or werewolf-scum!ConMan or Survivor!ConMan trying to become a doctor to replace a less useful power. Of course, the same could also be said for town!ConMan. Most of the other factions might find a use for it as well, possibly except lone wolves.
Nothing really pings me from any of the above so far. In a larger post he discusses the setup in more detail. He encourages Van to spawn doctors again, but not from killers or investigators at this stage. Suggests himself again, and Sabrar, due to the wait to gain any ability. Suggests reducing the number of kills once a few aliens have been hit. Happy with being tracked by dimochka. Also wouldn't be surprised by other investigations on himself, but reiterates his belief that they should target a range of people. Discusses the voters on Suzaku a bit, speculating on the likely alignment breakdown. Thinks most are likely to be townie, but not all.
Isn't particularly happy with Sungura's reaction to the Lawrencelot voters, but believes it to be part of her play-style. Thinks that Lawrencelot might have been weiyaoli's crush, which would explain his protectiveness of Lawrencelot. Considers whether to join the patzer wagon. Ends up withholding his vote due to lack of reads on anyone.
D2 he denies knowing anything about being paranoid, in response to the idea that ConMan might be a Paranoid Gun Owner. Thinks that scum took out dimochka to make him look suspicious. Disagrees with the nursifying of Znirk by Van, and FoSses her for the action. At this point, I'm beginning to think that he's getting a bit fixated with the idea of protection roles, something which I could definitely see an alien being (again survivor is also possible here). I'd expect the opposite from wolf-type players. Town could go either way, but I'm not sure would be quite so fixated. Votes Suzaku following frogman's investigation result, but points out that we can't know for certain that Suzaku is town unless we can confirm frogman as town, or at least on a different team. Concludes that post with a brief explanation for withholding his vote. This post was also the post where he made his mistake regarding the alien numbers. This could be an honest mistake, or it could be coming from an alien who accidentally revealed the total number (I'd presume 3 in that case).
He claims his alien number mistake was because of a failure to read properly (certainly possible - I made a mistake regarding the minimum number of wolves earlier). He then AGAIN repeats his comments re. Van and doctoring, again suggesting himself as a doctor target. He then mistakes Znirk's ability for a kill ability. This one is almost certainly a genuine mistake. One thing it does seem likely is that he is not someone who knows Znirk's alignment through being on their team, particularly if that team has chat abilities. I doubt a scum teammate of Znirk would make that sort of mistake.
His most recent post follows a reread, and contains a vote on patzer because of her lack of content and her lack of concern for aliens. He does acknowledge his own shortcomings regarding content at this point. Claims not to be mind-controlled and lists reasons why there might have been so few claimed mind-control results. Thinks it most likely that they either didn't perform their action or targeted dead people. Swings back a little on his displeasure with the nursifying of Znirk. Finally, thinks investigation results are most likely to be true.
Overall, my main concern with ConMan is just how fixated he seems to be on Van and her ability. He posts about it a significant number of his posts, and virtually all of them after he first suggests the idea. Possibly to me sounds a bit like someone who had an idea that becoming a doctor would be a good thing, and then keeps wanting to push it, which seems more likely to be scum than town thinking. His relatively low level of analysis on players is also a little concerning. If I discount those two points though, I can't really find much fault with him. If he is scum, I think he is likely to be alien. On the surface of it, I wouldn't oppose lynching him, but I need to think a bit more about whether he is scum or just fixated townie, with no strong opinions. Conclusion: scum-leaning neutral.
@ConMan, could you try posting some thoughts on a few more players. If you couldn't lynch patzer, who would you lynch? Similarly, if you could prevent someone, other than Lawrencelot (confirmed mason) or Suzaku (probably town, but possibly not I guess) from being lynched or killed today, who would it be and why?crucialityfactor:
His first post he is concerned with aliens, and thinks that investigations need to spread out. He then posts a load of Maths relating to how likely he is to find different factions with his power. Really doesn't see why druids should claim, and says that they should keep quiet. He backs that up with quite a bit of explanation why it is not useful for druids, and also potentially harmful to town. He moves onto talking about roadierich, thinking from a (I reckon flawed) meta-gaming perspective, that it is unlikely he is aliens or werewolves. He thinks that roadierich would be a reasonable target for his ability, but that because of his belief about what roadierich is not likely to be, that it would be harmful if anything. Thinks that an alignment check would be in order. Votes Suzaku to activate their power. Initially feels like Lawrencelot's actions were misguided, but tending more to scummy later on, but doesn't take a firm view. Subsequently says that he doesn't feel like Lawrencelot is scum, but that his attitude rubbed him the wrong way.
He next posts a summary of his top three lynch candidates, Lawrencelot, patzer and Opus, giving reasons for all three. In particular, he believes Lawrencelot and patzer to be on different teams. Opus he thinks would be a better lynch than the other two, if unable to use the "comparison power". I'm not sure I follow what that meant, but I think it has something to do with Dr Ug's ability. If I understand it correctly, crucialityfactor thinks that X > Opus > Y (where '>' means scummier, and X and Y are Lawrencelot and patzer in an unknown ordering).
@crucialityfactor, could you clarify what you meant in your conclusion here
Following weiyaoli's claim, he votes patzer, which is consistent with his previous post. He also says he could be "convinced of a few others" but without saying who. Dislikes my and SirGabriel's requests for Lawrencelot to confirm weiyaoli's claim. Apparently, he missed the point about masons not technically both being confirmed until both parties have confirmed it. Tries to deflect discussion away from them masons, and considers it bad for town that they are now confirmed. I agree that it's not great that they are confirmed, but at least any town-aligned kills and the lynch are not going to be targeting Lawrencelot.
Start of D2 and he claims that Sabrar cannot chat. He doesn't say why he targeted Sabrar though. He also claims to be mind-controlled to vote for patzer. Given that this was who he was voting for on the previous day, I'm not quite sure why the aliens did this, assuming that crucialityfactor is telling the truth.
@crucialityfactor, why did you target Sabrar last night?
He follows up in his next post with more discussion on the mind control issue and why there are relatively few claims. Thinks that aliens may be amongst the infrequent posters, which mirrors my thoughts (hence why I'm even doing this style of reread).
His final substantial post contains a list of thoughts on a range of players. He has decided that he thinks patzer wants to be lynched because of their relative lack of thoughts on people, despite her post-frequency, and won't vote for her unless she won't be lynched because of it. Reiterates his belief that patzer is unlikely to be alien, due to him being the mind-control vote target. Thinks we should focus on aliens more now. Thinks SDK's low post content was because of him being busy, hence the replacement, but that freezeblade also needs to post more content. His analysis of faubiguy looked a bit odd when I first read it, as I thought he'd jumped on him rather harshly. However, his point about faubiguy trying to stoke aggression versus patzer made me think why would aliens want patzer dead? Because her power could easily pick up an alien using their's. I'm definitely going to look back at faubiguy next. Crucialityfactor concludes with a vote on faubiguy, which makes sense given what he's said about his beliefs on different people.
I'm not sure I see anything particularly scummy with crucialityfactor at this stage. On the other hand, I also don't see anything that I would say is town any more than scum looking for other scum. I'd like to see his thoughts on some of the other active players when he gets time. I think if he is scum, he is unlikely to be on a team with faubiguy. Conclusion: neutral.faubiguy:
Hopefully, this should be quite quick, as he is definitely in the "infrequent poster" camp. He opens up with an agreement re. focusing on aliens. Investigation results should be public, being mind controlled should be claimed. None of that is particularly scummy, but nor is it townie, since most of the points I think are relatively obvious ideas. Also talks briefly about the killing roles, in particular noting that Yoloswag would be suspicious if he chose to kill instead of his other powers. If I am looking for alien clues, that's definitely one - trying to persuade others that Yoloswag should not be killing might be a case of trying to reduce the number of kills, and thus the number of aliens hit by said kills. On the other hand, if I take a step back, I can believe that his belief is genuine, as I had kind of expected Yoloswag to protect someone last night. His next (brief post) points out sensible thoughts regarding Darryl's ability and frogman's research target.
faubiguy wrote:Yes, but an unknown role is more of a risk to town if the player that has it is anti-town themself.
I don't agree with this statement. An unknown role could be anything from non-existent to very powerful. Since we don't know the alignment of the player, the risk is essentially neutral at this point. There is just as much chance that it is a powerful role and that ConMan is pro-town. I do broadly agree with his thoughts on the second lynch idea being a bad thing, since as he points out there are all sorts of ways scum could mess up that play.
Looking at faubiguy's post regarding Sabrar's lack of aliens, I don't think I agree with crucialityfactor that this is a significant scum tell, as I noted the same thing. You may notice that when I see something suspicious, I tend to explain why I think it suspicious, and much of the way I phrase things can be similar to how faubiguy does here. I don't necessarily consider it aggressive.
His final post is the one that stuck out to crucialityfactor the most, and did to me when I saw it in his analysis of faubiguy. Firstly, he claims not to have targeted anyone. I'm trying to think why he wouldn't, and here's my conclusion:
1) He forgot. I doubt this, as he does not say that he did.
2) He could have targeted Lawrencelot or weiyaoli since either of them were likely kill targets due to their mutually confirmed mason alignment. Of course, this could have resulted in faubiguy dying in exchange, but that would have left confirmed town alive with more powerful abilities (at least in my opinion) in exchange. Why wouldn't he want to do this? Because he isn't town, or, remotely possibly, he is a lover.
3) He could have targeted someone else entirely, but that could have simply confused investigation results.
Given the apparent desire of aliens to kill patzer, I think they are scared of her tracking ability. Alien!Faubiguy could have chosen to withhold his ability, but use his mind-control in an attempt to bump off patzer. However, if he got tracked, he could fall back on the idea that he was using his redirection power instead, as it is relatively unlikely that his target was the target of an investigation, given the relatively small number of investigators with secret targets. The same logic doesn't work for a wolf kill ability, since then he couldn't fake using his power.
@faubiguy, please justify your lack of choosing a target last night.
Strictly speaking, faubiguy is right with his statement regarding Lawrencelot not being confirmed before weiyaoli's flip, but I think he's stretching it a little far and I agree that he's being overly aggressive. Given my conclusions re. aliens wanting to kill patzer and why, I think this is a scum tell, although not the strongest part of my belief, having done that re-read.Vote faubiguy
I think faubiguy is one of the aliens, because of his aggressiveness versus patzer, but he could also be another scum faction. Most of his posting early on is fairly safe. To me, him withholding his action is the scummiest thing, given the state of play. I could have accepted a defence of avoiding confusing investigations if we hadn't have had the mason claims. He has also gone very quiet - his last post was over a week ago.Please could we have a modprod on faubiguy.