Vanillafia D3 - Ice Lollies for all: Town win!

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby moody7277 » Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:22 pm UTC

SPACKlick wrote:Care to elaborate on that comment? Because it means nothing to me.


That was the penny dropping as to why Vytron thinks bessie is town. I don't have to believe the same way, but the deduction makes it pretty clear that he's town.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Nebuduck » Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:25 pm UTC

SPACKlick wrote:Ok, So read Nebu's post now. Voting me till I stop banging on about something I haven't banged on about in several posts? Weird call.


Apologies. You're right, I just totted up your posts since the game started (so ignored confirms), and only 3/8 of them contained statistical analyses of any sort (I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt in the post where you mentioned 100% certainty about DJ being SK). it's still more than I'd like, but enough for me to:

unvote

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Vytron » Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:42 pm UTC

Nebuduck wrote:I guess my only thought on that is that, for someone who seems like a fairly experienced player on these fora, it's strikes me as odd that Vytron would have made any reference to his role PM.


I am known for living at the edge of legality. The other day I posted a picture from an opened spoiler I posted at Gojoe (because I claimed it could have been fabricated, so such pics should have been fine) with similar reactions.

SPACKlick wrote:The vanilla category is one thing Vytron, a game advertised as vanilla, hilighted as such with the name being Vanillafia with a theme of vanilla ice cream, like the ice cream games mentioned, I'd be surprised if we have cops and or doctors.


It would be, the first ever, closed setup games with no power roles, in the history of the forum. If that wouldn't surprise you I guess you have lived a very long life and discovering the Cookie Monster was in fact Spiderman wouldn't surprise you either.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby dimochka » Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:49 pm UTC

Correct me if I'm wrong but in every game i've played, town win con has been to get rid of all anti-town factions. If we deduced that DJ is SK (which, by the way, I'm not sure how we did but I could definitely see as possible), then why exactly aren't we voting him out? Because unless we feel that we need SK's help to kill mafia or there is a way for an SK to win with town, we should be voting.

How are we dealing with deadlines? Or do we continue posting until we reach hammer unless activity drops?

Regarding what vanilla means - when I joined I assumed that this is truly as vanilla as it gets. But after doing a bit of research (and thank you for posting the links Vytron), I wouldn't be surprised to see some combination of cop/doctor/watcher/tracker, maybe godfather, sk, and survivor. Those are all pretty standard roles. By the way if any of those are in play that makes me happy because it's just more fun than plain vanilla.

NInja'd by Vytron: I'd like to claim. I'm the cookie monster. Unkillable unlynchable mafia godfather who is a double agent for town. And on weekends I moonlight as spiderman.
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby frogman » Fri Sep 04, 2015 5:29 pm UTC

Lynx's posts have been bugging me, starting with this one:

lynx wrote:Anyway, more reads. I am deeply uncomfortable with pretty much everything Vytron has posted, although it wouldn't be the first time we mislynched him for that on D1. Same goes for Djehutynakht; I'm not quite sure what either of them is trying to achieve here so far.

/*snip*/

Djehutynakht, what makes you think that SPACKlick's vote on you was a 'classic scum pivot'? And what do you think his reasons could have been for voting for you if he were not anti-town?

Vytron, what makes you so insistent that Djehutynakht is not anti-town? Is there something the rest of us are missing?


This post doesn't read as very scummy in a vacuum. A couple thoughts: Vytron has been giving me neutral-to-town reads, which is wildly divergent from their meta. Lynx appears here to be singling out Vytron and Djehutynakht here just by reads without giving very much content. There are a couple questions here, and lynx's response to their answers could reveal the reasons behind the reads. "Is there something the rest of us are missing?" is mild tell.

lynx wrote:In what way am I clueless? I just have no interest in what other people's role PMs say. All that matters at the end of the day is one's win condition.


Here lynx starts getting very anti-talk-about-role-PMs. I am also a little wary of role PM discussion, but the cat is out of the bag. All that matters at the end of the day is one's win condition. Any information that would help you further that goal - for example, noting that other people don't have the same knowledge as someone with your role - is probably reasonable to pursue. I'd like to quote the rules:

RoadieRich wrote:You may not post your role PM, or quote verbatim from it. You may paraphrase.


Therefore the discussion seems well within the rules.

lynx wrote:There I meant that you're both being incredibly unhelpful and looking scummy as hell.

Unvote
Vote: Djehutynakht

Didn't expect that, did you?


This is the point at which my scumdar starts going off, and my suspicion of earlier posts is triggered. Why, yes, lynx, I didn't expect this at all. Nothing in the previous posts, nor this one, gives any tangible reason for this vote. The only thing that I can see is lynx saying that Djehutynakht is similarly scummy to Vytron. Vytron the gets a bunch of analysis and Djehutynakht gets none. In fact, lynx says that Djehutynakht not wanting to breadcrumb is reasonable. Why the vote for Djehutynakht, then?

lynx wrote:But let's leave it at that before you jackasses manage to force a mass-claim.


This statement confuses me more than anything else. Mass-claims seem not only fine but straight useless in a closed-setup vanilla game? For example, I'm VT. I would encourage everyone else to claim, but it wouldn't give any more information, because everyone else would claim vanilla town as well.

Here's a little icing on the cake. Might not be anything, but it caught my eye.

1. Moody writes a post giving feelings of everyone, but ignores lynx.
2. Vytron votes moody.
3. Lynx requests that Vytron analyze Spacklick.

Re-reading it, it doesn't ping me as hard as it did the first time through, but it struck me as a redirection. I wouldn't have mentioned it, but I'd like this analysis to be complete.

Anyway, in conclusion, lynx's play strikes me as strange and anti-town.
Vote: lynx
yeah yeah yeah

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby RoadieRich » Fri Sep 04, 2015 5:50 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Do we continue posting until we reach hammer unless activity drops?

Exactly that. I don't like deadlines unless necessary.

Dr Ug and flafec have been modprodded. They have until Noon EDT on Tuesday 8th (an extra day has been allowed to account for a holiday in the USA) to post in thread before they will be replaced or modkilled.

Votals:
SPACKlick (1): Djehutynakht
ajh (1): nolemonplease
lynx (1): frogman
bessie (1): moody7277
Carlington (2): bessie,
Djehutynakht (2): SPACKlick, lynx
Moody7277 (1): vytron


Incidentally to the extended deadline, I am away from home for the weekend, so you'll have to sort out any squabbles amongst yourselves.
Last edited by RoadieRich on Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:45 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Vytron » Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:03 pm UTC

The idea is if DJ is SK it's not urgent to get rid of him. Basically he's already lost no matter what, and if we don't lynch him and mafia doesn't kill him, he's likely to hit mafia and that's useful because we kill 2 for 1.

What do the numbers on parenthesis represent?

ajh has a 2, like Carlington, but DJ and Moody have none (I assume a (0)), it's odd...

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby dimochka » Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:34 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:The idea is if DJ is SK it's not urgent to get rid of him. Basically he's already lost no matter what, and if we don't lynch him and mafia doesn't kill him, he's likely to hit mafia and that's useful because we kill 2 for 1.

Uh that's a good point, I totally didn't think of it. But at the beginning of the game (in nearly every game the number of town exceeds the number of non-town), SK is more likely to hit town than scum. Moreover, SK picks the side he's better off temporarily allying with, which is risky. a vig, on the other hand, is 100% trying to hit non-town. So I'm not sure this strategy makes sense.
Of course it's completely moot if somehow both you and DJ are on the same scum team, but given that (for now) I think you're more likely to be town, that doesn't matter.
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby RoadieRich » Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:46 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:What do the numbers on parenthesis represent?

They are the total number of votes on that player. I forgot to update them when tallying from the last votal post.
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Djehutynakht » Fri Sep 04, 2015 7:45 pm UTC

lynx wrote:Djehutynakht, what makes you think that SPACKlick's vote on you was a 'classic scum pivot'? And what do you think his reasons could have been for voting for you if he were not anti-town?


Classic Scum Pivot in that he claims I'm totally innocent, then completely turns around and is confident that I'm absolutely scum a few posts later. That's a classic scum pivot... show doubt first so as not to seem too eager and then go "oh, well, I guess I'm convinced now!" and stick to your story hard. Which he has. He's sticking to this story with a rabid fire. As Spack himself admitted, perhaps it's a bit of a lazy scum pivot, but we're getting into the wine jug there. It seems suspicious.

If he's town, though, he probably actually believes what he's been posting, which is a possibility I want to keep an eye on.

But now we have this little gem:

SPACKlick wrote:If I'd been in their situation, accused of not having access to information I did have, I'd have put some reference to that information in my rebuttal. DJ didn't.


This to me reads like a Scum hunting for power roles, whether he things I'm an indie scum (or mafia if he's the SK, obversely) or a town power role.

It's D1. Claiming at this stage is a bit excessive. I didn't breadcrumb because I didn't (and still don't) think it was worth it. Bessie made one minor accusation against me, which a lot of players seriously questioned the validy about. Does Spack really think I'm scummy for not throwing my role out there in the open for a question made about my confirmation post?

I didn't find the accusation serious enough against me to warrant pulling out soft-claims at the beginning of D1, and now I suspect that Scum is hunting for power roles to kill tonight.

My vote on Spack stands.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby SPACKlick » Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:55 pm UTC

Djehutynakht wrote:
SPACKlick wrote:If I'd been in their situation, accused of not having access to information I did have, I'd have put some reference to that information in my rebuttal. DJ didn't.

This to me reads like a Scum hunting for power roles, whether he things I'm an indie scum (or mafia if he's the SK, obversely) or a town power role.

It's D1. Claiming at this stage is a bit excessive. I didn't breadcrumb because I didn't (and still don't) think it was worth it. Bessie made one minor accusation against me, which a lot of players seriously questioned the validy about. Does Spack really think I'm scummy for not throwing my role out there in the open for a question made about my confirmation post?

I didn't find the accusation serious enough against me to warrant pulling out soft-claims at the beginning of D1, and now I suspect that Scum is hunting for power roles to kill tonight.

My vote on Spack stands.

I think you're misreading me here Djehutynakht, I was saying IF your were VT or a role that had the same/similar role PM, you would have breadcrumbed or outright expressed the information that the suspicion of you is based on in the role PM. There's no cost to doing it, the information is essentially out there, it says nothing directly about your role other than letting town see you're likely town. You still don't know what you don't know and that's enough for me. I will say I've backed of from 100% as people have shown that "vanilla" games round here are/may be less vanilla than my experience elsewhere. That said I still think your response hasn't been townie.

Frogman, I basically agree with your analysis of Lynx but I'm wary as people can get into an anti-"player who's bugging me" mode that looks similar to that. IGMEO Lynx.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Vytron » Sat Sep 05, 2015 9:56 am UTC

Eh, we can't conclude anything, DJ could be VT pretending to not know what he doesn't know to get Night Killed and save a possible power role or something.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby dimochka » Sat Sep 05, 2015 3:08 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:Eh, we can't conclude anything, DJ could be VT pretending to not know what he doesn't know to get Night Killed and save a possible power role or something.

I give that a 0.005% chance. As a matter of fact I'm putting my (money) vote where my (mouth is) fingers are.

Vote DJ

Oh - and Oh me yarm I'm 3rd on the bandwagon, must be scum.
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Djehutynakht » Sat Sep 05, 2015 4:31 pm UTC

Do you have any real reason for voting for me Dim? Or is it just "Eh, you know. Go with it"?

I'm not making a claim on my role. Not soft. Not hard. Period. This whole thing is some stupid D1 mislynch nonsense, where someone gets a little too overhyped about a sarcastic confirmation post and suddenly we're off to the races because frankly it's easier than actually reading the nuances of other peoples' replies.

I think scum are role-hunting. Plain and simple. That's what scum do.

At least peoples' response to this should make an interesting analysis for D2.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Djehutynakht » Sat Sep 05, 2015 4:31 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Oh - and Oh me yarm I'm 3rd on the bandwagon, must be scum.


Also, wine.

IGMEOY

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby bessie » Sat Sep 05, 2015 9:47 pm UTC

A few thoughts.
SPACKlick wrote:Therefore I am now confident Djehutynakht doesn't have a Vanilla Town Role.

I don’t think that Djehutnakht has the Vanilla Town Role, but I’m not entirely convinced that you or anyone else does either. I think that by the time that post was made, and certainly by now, there is enough information out there to get a good idea of the content in the PM that we are discussing. And Vytron and I may not have the same PM, as you yourself pointed out here:
SPACKlick wrote:I don't see how Vytron answering what he expected being responded to with "absolutely genius deduction" implies Djehutynakht didn't receive the same one liner the rest of us did. I do see that mafia, if they did indeed get a different mail, which I doubt (honestly ignoring any potential power roles because I don't believe there are any, you could just swap town for mafia and the mail would work and I'm trusting Roadie Rich to have done that in particular with regards to the compound sentence structure of the first half of the PM) I can see bessie's move as trying to sow doubt on a difference they know exists.

Regardless, I’m reading SPACKlick as town and Djehutynakht as scum. For reasons, please refer to these two quotes:

Djehutynakht wrote:Bessie made one minor accusation against me, which a lot of players seriously questioned the validy about. Does Spack really think I'm scummy for not throwing my role out there in the open for a question made about my confirmation post?

Djehutynakht wrote:I'm not making a claim on my role. Not soft. Not hard. Period. This whole thing is some stupid D1 mislynch nonsense, where someone gets a little too overhyped about a sarcastic confirmation post and suddenly we're off to the races because frankly it's easier than actually reading the nuances of other peoples' replies.

Note that the italics in the above quotes are DJ's, not mine. The reason I initially suspected DJ is that he was suspicious of Vytron before Vytron did anything scummy, because if DJ had a vanilla town PM, he should have recognized Vytron possibly had the same PM. Now I’m suspicious of him for comments he has made regarding this throughout the entire game, not just the confirmation post. I think DJ is trying to mislead everyone by implying that this is only about the confirmation post.

As to whether or not I believe Vytron is town, I don’t know. He made a bold confirmation post for scum, but his content is a bit scummy, so who knows. I’m leaning town though.

moody7277 wrote:bessie's DJ and Carlington votes look opportunistic. I think Carlington caught her out, so put him as one of the good guys, and her as scummy

moody, Carlington caught me out how? He voted with no explanation.

moody7277 wrote:
Vytron wrote:bessie and me basically managed to show our vanilla town cards to each other behind the mod's back


And apparently RR owes Diemo royalties for copying his concept.


moody7277 wrote:
SPACKlick wrote:Care to elaborate on that comment? Because it means nothing to me.


That was the penny dropping as to why Vytron thinks bessie is town. I don't have to believe the same way, but the deduction makes it pretty clear that he's town.

Honestly I don’t understand this either. Can you point to which of Diemo’s games you are talking about? I don’t think I played any of them.

Nebuduck wrote:(RR, in answer to your role PM question, yes, but I think we should meed after dark in a public place. You bring the length of AC tubing, and I'll bring the peanut butter. I'll make the noise of an owl with chronic dysentery, so you know it's me.)

Nebuduck certainly received a more interesting role PM than me. And I said I was done discussing role PMs in my previous post. Oh well.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Vytron » Sat Sep 05, 2015 10:34 pm UTC

I estimate DJ's chance to be a doctor to be about 35% and think it'd bee a poor lynch choice.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Djehutynakht » Sat Sep 05, 2015 11:34 pm UTC

bessie wrote:The reason I initially suspected DJ is that he was suspicious of Vytron before Vytron did anything scummy, because if DJ had a vanilla town PM, he should have recognized Vytron possibly had the same PM. Now I’m suspicious of him for comments he has made regarding this throughout the entire game, not just the confirmation post. I think DJ is trying to mislead everyone by implying that this is only about the confirmation post.


I don't see how my attitude towards Vytron was different from anyone else's behavior at the start of the game. I said I was "looking at" (I didn't use the word suspicious, at least not until later) Vytron out of pure instinct based on past games with him. Because he is Vytron Which, honestly, is literally what everyone does on their first post D1. They poke fingers at random people. They make random votes. That's basically what I did.

Just checking-- people realize my reply to Vytron in the confirmation posts was just my patent sarcasm, right?

"I expect this game is going to be full of vanillas..."

"Well, no duh"

bessie wrote:Honestly I don’t understand this either. Can you point to which of Diemo’s games you are talking about? I don’t think I played any of them.


Ice Cream Mafia
(I played the first two of these)

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Re: Vanillafia (Pregame) - I'll have a wafer cone, please.

Postby Dr Ug » Sun Sep 06, 2015 12:43 am UTC

Firstly, sorry for the absence. Didn't notice my role PM until the modprod.

So onto the game. Good to start (for me) a day 1 with 3 pages to read. So, my reading on the discussion so far.

There has been a bit of discussion on role PM content, which as a mod I dislike and generally build in mechanics to protect trying to use quoting / paraphrasing / mentioning certain words etc. Despite this, and despite being an experienced player, Vytron's first post:
Vytron wrote:Confirming. To answer the PM's question, assuming everyone got it, I didn't know what to expect, but now I expect game's full of vanillas...
I would read this as either Vytron is vanilla, and is close to breaking the rules (in a way that would get him modkilled a game modded by me), especially given this:
RoadieRich wrote:
SPACKlick wrote:Also note, we cannot directly quote our role PM and I'd be uncomfortable with things like "There are n words in it and y letters" without explicit mod permission.

Doing so will result in an immediate modkill, and, if by a non-scum-aligned player, will count as that day's lynch.
There was then some discussion regarding an explicit plan (as banned above by RR).

Interestingly Vytron also points out why this was a bad strategy by him in the first place:
Vytron wrote:
SPACKlick wrote:
Djehutynakht wrote:Neither "he voted for me" or "longstanding instinct" (a.k.a. having played with Vytron before) appear to be remotely related to the role pm that I'm absolutely sure that everybody playing this game got (*wink*wink*). I'm just sort of curious about your thought process here.

Ok Bessie, I'm with you now. Djehutynakht doesn't know what he doesn't know and so is flapping a bit.

[b]vote Djehutynakht

It'll take a lot to make me think otherwise.


It doesn't take much: DJ could be a power role.

That's it.

While all these reactions might be useful on the long-run for town, this is a way to detect non-vanilla, not scum.

Specifically, if I received the vanilla PMs in my scum role but power roles didn't, we're just lynching PR!DJ (I know this isn't the case, but if I wasn't me I wouldn't know).
In otherwords, if all the vanilla roles are pointed out in public, to Scum, those that are not vanilla are either them (and they know who this is) or power roles. They then can kill the power roles.

lynx wrote:nolemonplease, giving scum the town PM is quite common and we don't normally go too deep into role PM stuff here anyway, as per the spirit of this rule.
RoadieRich wrote:You may not post your role PM, or quote verbatim from it. You may paraphrase.

On a re-read, I still think Carlington was a bit panicky when taking his vote off bessie. I don't know him though so can't tell if he's new or not.
This would have been my response if I'd been here earlier. I really don't like the way Vytron has started this game, it's a bit too close to the edge of the spirit of the game for me, but seems consistent with what I've seen of him.

I think, either Vytron is town, DJ is not, and lynx is probably not; or Vytron is scum , or scum were given the vanilla town PM as a reference), DJ is not, and lynx is probably not. I think Bessie is town either way, in that hers was a response to Vytron's PM claim.

If Vytron is scum, then I think either scum were given a sample of vanilla Town's role PM (possible, and suggested by lynx earlier); scum were given a similar role PM (actually I think this is more likely - ie with the smae "expectation" reference - and Vytron made a gamble that it was also in the town PM. I actually think this one is possible, as if this is the case, and town wasn't given the same reference, then the risk is almost nothing as we wouldn't have noticed).

FoS: Vytron

I think if DJ flips anything other than town, lynx is probably scum. I think if DJ is SK, lynx was jumping on his wagon as scum, if DJ is PR lynx was jumping on his wagon as scum. If DJ is scum i'm still a bit suspicious of the third vote wagon that Nebu referred to, but I would be less certain about it. If DJ is vanilla town (unlikely), then perhaps I could trust lynx a bit more.

FoS: lynx

I think information on DJ will actually give the most information here, and therefore is the most valuable lynch IMO.

Vote DJ
Where did my old signature go? :(

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Djehutynakht » Sun Sep 06, 2015 3:57 am UTC

You basically just voted for me after analyzing people who weren't me.

FOS: Dr. UG

I get what you mean about information, and I fully understand that, but personally I'd rather not risk it. I think that we'd be better off killing people who aren't me.

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Re: Vanillafia (Pregame) - I'll have a wafer cone, please.

Postby Vytron » Sun Sep 06, 2015 7:01 am UTC

Dr Ug wrote:I would read this as either Vytron is vanilla, and is close to breaking the rules (in a way that would get him modkilled a game modded by me)


WHAT? I was perfectly within the margins of legality. IF paraphrasing is fine, and that means, saying something like "hey, guys, my Pm asked me whether I was awaiting a role different from the one you got" THAT would have been paraphrasing, and what I did was LESS bad.

In fact, I read every single rule of the game, and reading that paraphrasing is fine was what gave me the idea, because I had done it before, by referencing my PM's wincon in another game. I now realize it was a mistake because it's not a wincon, it just helps people identify PRs, so it was terrible, but the more you know...

The plan is to become unlynchable, because everyone knows I'm town. I'm a perfect night target, or I live both ways because they convince people that scum should have gotten a copy of town PMs and I thought about taking advantage of it. Either way a PR is saved.

DJ doesn't sound like mafia, and I have played with him as scum. The 35% I quoted earlier is because his most likely role is doctor. If he does something else then, fine, lynch him for that, but my mistake isn't as big yet, if we mislynch the doctor because of what I did early on the game then that would be the big mistake.

I think there's 2 out of 3 chance DJ is town, and I think we should lynch someone that is more likely to be scum.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Dr Ug » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:32 am UTC

ATM it will take a bit to convince me to vote someone other than you (Vytron), DJ or lynx. I'd be happy with a lynch on any of those three.

Vytron wrote:
Dr Ug wrote:I would read this as either Vytron is vanilla, and is close to breaking the rules (in a way that would get him modkilled a game modded by me)


WHAT? I was perfectly within the margins of legality. IF paraphrasing is fine, and that means, saying something like "hey, guys, my Pm asked me whether I was awaiting a role different from the one you got" THAT would have been paraphrasing, and what I did was LESS bad.
I meant what I said. You would be very close to a modkill if I was mod. But then again, that's also why I don't mod vanilla (or anything like vanilla) games, and why I build mechanisms into my games that would have made your play a bad play anyway.
Where did my old signature go? :(

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Vytron » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:59 am UTC

Yeah, a rule like "You can't reference your role PM or anything the mod tells you in private" or... no rule at all (because the rule put a boundary and gave me the idea of going close to it) would have stopped me on the first place. The paraphrasing rule usually comes with example role PMs for everyone to see so this can't work at all.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Carlington » Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:55 am UTC

Weirdly, I think I agree with Vytron. It's taken me a couple of read-throughs to come to that conclusion, but his logic makes sense. We shouldn't lynch DJ tonight, we should lynch lynx instead.

Let me explain what I'm thinking:

Vytron and bessie are pretty obviously aligned with one another. Their role-PM shenanigans happened early enough, and before enough information about the town PM was floating around, to be believable. Later references to the PM like, say, Dr Ug's, are less believable, because it was already pretty clear what the question in question was. I agree with Vytron's deductions about why bessie is town, and they match with my read on her, so I'm happy enough in saying she's town. The fact that Vytron both made the connection and made it publicly also go a long way to convincing me he's town. It doesn't make any sense to me that scum!Vytron would make a play like that. The two of them have pretty clearly tied their fortunes together, since if either one of them flips scum at some point in the future, the connection they've explicitly been making to one another would mean that the other would be lynched right after. I think roughly 25% of the population is a reasonable size for a scumteam, which means we have probably a maximum of 4 scum, and maybe an indie somewhere. If Vytron and bessie were scum, and tied themselves to each other like that, then either one of them being lynched would mean losing at least half of the scumteam, which would be a gutsy risk to take on D1, before even having the chance at checking in with their scummates. To me, at least, this case is helped by the fact that bessie is giving me a very strong town read so far - so if we accept that she's on the same side as Vytron, then we accept that he looks towny too.

Having explained why I trust Vytron, I'll now explain why I agree with him:

The case on DJ so far hinges on bessie and Vytron having some shared information from a role PM that DJ doesn't have. This leads to two different scenaria:
1) bessie and Vytron are both VT. Then, DJ is either scum or a power role.
2) Either bessie or Vytron or both are town power roles. Then, DJ must be scum. This works because if either or both of bessie and Vytron are power roles, then all of town must have gotten the same PM, at least in part, so DJ not getting the reference means he's not town. In this second case, either bessie or Vytron claiming town PR would push me to a DJ lynch, as it would give us enough information to confirm DJ's scumminess, and a scum fakeclaim from scum!Vytron or scum!bessie would lead to the death of two scum, as outlined above.

DJ cannot be VT.
If DJ is a town PR, lynching him is an awful idea. This is self-explanatory.
If DJ is scum, he's either mafia-aligned or indie. In either case, we gain more information by lynching him tomorrow night than we do tonight.
If he's mafia-aligned, mafia won't NK him because duh, so he'll survive the night and we'll lynch him tomorrow. Then we can count the number of deaths, and determine how many factions we're dealing with. In this case, we lose nothing from not killing him tonight, because he's not the only mafia member anyway, and we still have him confirmed as scum so we can still draw links. We also gain information on the number of factions that exist, because we can count the number of NKs.
If he's indie, mafia will either NK him because he'll flip indie and then we can't draw links from his death, or they'll leave him alive and we'll lynch him tomorrow because he survived the night, so we assume he's mafia. Then we still lynch him tomorrow, so we have one confirmed scum kill. If he's SK, then there's a chance he'll hit mafia, which is good for town. (I'm generally in favour of leaving SK alive in the early game in favour of searching for mafia because of this). If not, then we lose a townie but we trade this for information/a kill, which is a decent trade.
This leaves the case where DJ is a town PR and scum leave him alive tonight so that we lynch a town PR tomorrow - but that's not a reason to lynch him now, and we don't lose anything in that case versus lynching him now anyway. I'm also pretty happy to rule this out, because DJ's play has been chock-full of defensiveness - in fact the only thing I've seen him talk about so far, barring one or two sentences, has been how innocent he is and how scummy the people voting for him are. Do you have any other reads, DJ?

As outlined above, I'm leaning pretty heavily town for Vytron and bessie, and very scummy towards DJ (but I don't think we should lynch him yet because we need to be able to get more info out of it. lynx I think acted very defensively when Vytron started asking about the role PM, but I accept that there could be a little bit of OMGUS that's going into that, so certainly not the scummiest out there. I basically agree with frogman's analysis of lynx, but I don't think it's quite conclusive enough to put a vote on it. I strongly disagree with moody's read on bessie - but that doesn't make him scum. I'm leaning town just as a gut feeling there, but that's after I correct for the fact that I seem to always find moody scummy (sorry moody). Dr Ug's post is pinging me, and I'd like him to elaborate on why he's so suspicious of lynx. He spent the whole post talking about how he doesn't like Vytron's play, then inexplicably says that no matter how DJ flips, lynx is probably scum (but gives no evidence for this), and then votes DJ anyway. (To be exact, he said if DJ flips anything other than VT, but DJ cannot flip VT so it comes to the same thing).
The rest of the players haven't really posted enough for me to say anything about.

As it stands, I'd like Dr Ug to explain his reads a bit better. His post is pinging me a lot, and I've been composing this post for the past three-ish hours so I might be a little burnt out, but he's probably my most likely vote candidate, along with lynx and DJ.
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Carlington » Sun Sep 06, 2015 11:04 am UTC

Oh, that's embarrassing :oops: - I left off the bit where I explain why we vote lynx:

Lynx is in the same boat as DJ - he cannot be VT, since he didn't understand the role PM reference. He did, however, get very defensive when Vytron called him on it, to the point of threatening to replace out if the subject wasn't dropped. He's also quite anti-Vytron, despite Vytron being effectively confirmed town. Also, despite saying his vote wouldn't shift from me until he'd heard from me, he pivoted on DJ who he previously been defending, and voted for him without providing any reason beyond "It's not what you expected". This looks a lot like jumping on the bandwagon to distance himself from DJ and make himself look town if DJ flips scum (which I am all but convinced he will).
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby ajh » Sun Sep 06, 2015 3:04 pm UTC

Loose ends:
SPACKlick wrote:ajh - Two fairly contentless posts. Likes me and Bessie doesn't know who to trust more. Doesn't like Bessie's follow up. Doesn't like lynx for some reason. Never get a read on you ajh but leaning slightly town.
Vytron - Odd one. Seeming very scummy but clearly got the same role PM Bessie and I did so either scum got the same role PM's with the alignment switched or Vytron is town acting foolish. Probably town.
No, that was in response to lynx, not about them.
The whole PM thing went past me, I need to reread before commenting. Would anybody help explain? Also general mafia advice, since I seem to be unreadable.

moody7277 wrote:bessie's DJ and Carlington votes look opportunistic. I think Carlington caught her out, so put him as one of the good guys, and her as scummy
ajh: laconic as usual, although he does give bessie a little more benefit of the doubt, then reverses himself in his second post
I’m aware of that, probably been to eager to pick a side.

What caught my attention most:
bessie wrote:Everyone, it was really not my intent to try to push anyone into revealing their role PM, or to trick them into revealing how many words are in it or anything like that. I’m willing to drop this, because we should be scumhunting, not looking to catch scum on a technicality.
Who accused you of that? Seems like you’re backpedaling.
But Djehutynakht did ask me a question, so I feel I should reply.
snip
But I have to agree with SPACKlick here:
SPACKlick wrote:Djehutynakht doesn't know what he doesn't know and so is flapping a bit.
So for now IGMEOY Djehutynakht. I could be wrong. I’m already wrong about the number of time I thought ajh was going to post on D1. But I don’t want to draw the wrath of mod so I won’t be pushing for further discussion on this subject. We have more content to analyze now anyway.
Your insistence and simultaneous suggestion to move on make me suspicious. (By the way, your estimate motivated me to post more in the first place.)

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby bessie » Sun Sep 06, 2015 9:59 pm UTC

Dr Ug, I like your posts and I agree with you. As I already said in a previous post, we should be scumhunting, not trying to catch scum on a technicality, which is not really in the spirit of the game. But I seem to be stuck and unable to move this discussion away from the role PMs, probably because I was the one that started it. I try to address all questions and comments to me, and they all come back to this.

I admit that I haven’t been commenting too much on lynx’s content. I did initially read lynx’s attempt to move the game away from discussing the role PMs not as a scummy avoidance move but as an attempt to not skirt the rules and to get the scumhunting back on track. But because others have raised concerns I will reread and reanalyze his content.

To reply to ajh, I understand your concerns, but I’m not backpedaling, please reference the above. Vytron made what I thought was a casual careless throwaway remark in his role PM. DJ replied. Everyone else wisely ignored these two posts by Vytron and DJ, and I stupidly did not. I found DJ suspicious and I voted for DJ without explanation, and when Carlington rightly called me on this, I explained my vote…and here we are. Vytron has since admitted that this was not a casual careless throwaway remark and was indeed a carefully thought out remark. I have unthinkingly tied my fate to Vytron’s. And perhaps to DJ’s too, because if he flips town I will surely be lynched.

And ajh, I’m glad to see you posting more this game. I rarely agree with you but your content is usually carefully thought out and I would like to see more of it.

Whatever happens, Djehutynakht’s unspoilered remarks in the Gojoe thread have made me very sad, and have somewhat deflated my earlier enthusiasm for this game. I was going to reply in Gojoe but I really couldn’t think of anything to say without referencing this game. Maybe I’ll think about it a little more and try to come up with something generic. I’m truly sorry DJ if you think I am targeting you unfairly, it’s just the way things panned out. I really like playing with you. I started composing the following last night, before Djehutynakht posted in Gojoe. I deleted most of it.

Djehutynakht wrote:Just checking-- people realize my reply to Vytron in the confirmation posts was just my patent sarcasm, right?

"I expect this game is going to be full of vanillas..."

"Well, no duh"

Your sarcasm is not what this is about. You have no idea what we are talking about, and your first post and all discussion regarding this since is an attempt to hide the fact that you don’t know what you don't know. You point to what others have said regarding this and you try to add a little something to appear that you are “in the know,” but all your references are just a little bit off.

And DJ, thank you for the links to Diemo’s games. I skimmed them but I still don’t quite understand moody’s reference. So moody, to which of the three games are you referring? What in particular in that game points to why Vytron thinks I’m town and you don’t? And I would still like an answer to the question I asked you in my previous post.

That’s all I have for now. I’m working on my list of player reads.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Vytron » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:31 am UTC

Hmmm, interesting. Everything Carlington says make sense, except for one thing...

Carlington wrote:2) Either bessie or Vytron or both are town power roles.


I know bessie is VT. Bessie knows I'm VT. All the people that got our role PMs know we're VT.

You don't, so it seems you also don't know what you don't know, just like DJ!

But, yeah, regardless, lynx is the best lynch. The replacement extortion was over the top and not something to do by a townie.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Dr Ug » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:37 am UTC

The reason I think lynx is scum either way, is that he looks like scum bandwagoning, either onto town, or indie. If DJ is mafia, that would be the only time I would think he may not be, but it definitely doesn't clear him. As Nebu pointed out, third vote on a wagon is most commonly made by a mafia member.

I can see Carlington's reasoning not to vote DJ today.

Unvote: DJ

As I said, I want either DJ, lynx or Vytron lynched today, and as I think Vytron is probably town (the reason I would be ok with lynching him as town as I think it would give us a lot of information, and so would therefore also be happy with a NK on him if there is a vig), I will switch my vote to lynx.

[b]Vote: lynx{/b]
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Dr Ug » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:38 am UTC

EBWOP: tag fail:

Vote: lynx
Where did my old signature go? :(

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Carlington » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:59 am UTC

I'm happy enough with Dr Ug's reasoning to take him off my suspicion list. That leaves, for the moment, this:

Vote: lynx

Vytron, I have an answer for you, but I don't think it would help town to state it publicly.
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Vytron » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:02 am UTC

Indeed. It's the same reason DJ would refuse to claim. I do think town has a bit of an edge after all. Unless lynx flips town...

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Carlington » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:17 am UTC

We seem to be on the same page, or close to it at least.
In any case, if lynx flips town then I look bad for pushing the lynch away from DJ onto lynx, but I'm happy enough to accept the risk of that, as I consider it to be small, and we gain information in any case.
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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby Djehutynakht » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:50 am UTC

Carlington wrote: because DJ's play has been chock-full of defensiveness - in fact the only thing I've seen him talk about so far, barring one or two sentences, has been how innocent he is and how scummy the people voting for him are. Do you have any other reads, DJ?


One of my key D1 plays is to examine the biggest center of attention. The main lynch target, in other words. If they're not scum (sometimes they are; oftentimes not) it's usually the conversation around them that provides the most clues: scum flocking toward them, away from them, etc.

However, of course, this is a barrel full of wine because I happen to be (or was?) the main lynch target. But that's generally the idea. Since so many people saw me as "definitely" scum (and still do, with the whole "eh, we'll lynch him tomorrow guys" rhetoric) it's way more acceptable for scum to flock to me as a target, because tomorrow the universal story would be "whoops. Well, we all thought he was scum. Nothing scummy about voting for him, right?".

I haven't had much chance to analyze others because this has been the main discussion point.

Carlington wrote: since he didn't understand the role PM reference.


Who said I didn't understand it? I understood plenty.

Didn't I hear something once about only scum read the role pms? Or wait... that might have been only scum read the rules.... Meh.

bessie wrote:Whatever happens, Djehutynakht’s unspoilered remarks in the Gojoe thread have made me very sad, and have somewhat deflated my earlier enthusiasm for this game.


My apologies for that. I probably shouldn't have posted that in the Gojoe unspoilered. If it helps, I did say this happens whether I'm scum or town. Please, don't feel bad about it. Honestly, when both town and scum it's usually my own fault. You need to play the game as you feel is the best way to play it. If that means pursuing the whole role pm bit, so be it.

I still think your analysis was wrong, but hey: I'm gonna say that either way.
_____________________

Have to go back and read up on the Lynx situation now that it's been thrown out there. I still think that scum role-hunting is the most likely scenario, but I'll try and break down his situation as well.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby moody7277 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 2:27 pm UTC

@bessie

Carlington wrote:It's too early to have 2 votes on anyone yet, though, hence the unvote in this post.


That's what I interpreted as "catching you out", meaning the early bandwagoning on DJ. He said he was satisfied by your reaction when he poked you with a vote. Given that make two people I have townie reads on think your town, I probably should revise my opinion.

On the DJ thing, it seems to me to be reminiscent of the Lego game where he got tripped up by inferred PM content. Other people playing here who were also in that game may have a similar recollection. Of course in that game he was scum. Comparing the two reactions, in this game he's been more petulant (sorry if that word sounds offensive, but that's how I interpreted this post).

On lynx, as was pointed out, I don't have a srong opinion yet on him despite there being a lot of content from him (unlike my other null reads). I recognize that as a situation to be remedied.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby SPACKlick » Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:39 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:On the DJ thing, it seems to me to be reminiscent of the Lego game where he got tripped up by inferred PM content. Other people playing here who were also in that game may have a similar recollection. Of course in that game he was scum. Comparing the two reactions, in this game he's been more petulant (sorry if that word sounds offensive, but that's how I interpreted this post).

I just read that whole game. Having not been there the first time I may lose some context from the timing of posts but it reads exactly the same. I am more and more convinced that DJ is non town. I really don't subscribe to "We'll lynch them tomorrow" except in incredibly rare circumstances because it lets scum play games with more information.

Which has led me to thinking about mafia's actions tonight. They're rock and hard placed. Won't say why but if we lynch either DJ or Lynx I'm very curious to see what happens tonight.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby frogman » Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:55 pm UTC

It's been mentioned a couple of times, and I'm curious about it. People say that it's better to leave the SK alive early because they might kill scum. I was wondering if Spacklick could do a mathy statistics thing on this (sorry Nebuduck)? I would be very interested in seeing if that actually holds up.

For what it's worth, DJ pings me as slightly townie at this point. I am in no way certain about this, but I would guess that DJ is more likely PR than vanilla mafia. Of course, my mind could be changed, but I would not vote DJ at this point in time.

On other people: as I said before Vytron reads as townie to me in a meta-gamey sense. Also, I agree that bessie appears to be the most strongly town-aligned.
yeah yeah yeah

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby SPACKlick » Mon Sep 07, 2015 4:07 pm UTC

Meant to include in previous, unofficial votals (I'm really not sure I didn't miss any)
ajh (1): Nolemon Please
Bessie (1): Moody7277
Carlington (1): Bessie
Djehutynakht(3): dimochka, lynx, SPACKlick
Lynx(3): Carlington, Dr Ug, Frogman
Moody7277(1): Bessie
SPACKlick(1): Djehutynakht

Not Voting(5): ajh, BenM16, ElectricHaze, flafec, Nebuduck

We still haven't heard from flafec, BenM16 has two nearly empty posts. Let's not forget ElectricHaze exists just because he's away. Nebuduck's been quiet for a while and we haven't had a lot of content from them. ajh has had ok content, I'd hope to see a vote before day's end.

I thought Frogman had been quiet, I see I was ninja'd by their last post asking for maths. It's complicated as to whether SK's help or not. In a low mafia game say 14-1-1 an SK is a hindrance, it just speeds the end of the game. In a high mafia game say 10-5-1 it's a help. In general SK's make games quicker and that has a negative effect on scumhunting, they also cloud information to be gained from who was killed. I don't have empirical data on SK's but what maths I can do probably contains too many assumptions to be useful I'll drum up a spreadsheet tonight to see what the overall impact would be.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby dimochka » Mon Sep 07, 2015 6:13 pm UTC

@DJ - I am not asking you to claim. I did think about it but realized that it's not beneficial for us. I just don't like how most of your posts seem to be downplaying the importance of this (which by the way I wish had never happened, because now we're going on technicalities). Anyways I do like a lot of the analysis about your role. I don't believe you're a doctor, but you may be another PR. I still think you're more likely to be an independent than a PR, and it probably makes more sense to hunt for actual scum right now.

I think most of my realization came from putting myself in your shoes and trying to think what I would do if I were in this situation. And realized that it's almost exactly the same, in particular if I were town.

Unvote

I can see the argument on lynx, but for some reason he seems to me more annoyed than scummy. While I can see the analogies between him and DJ, I'm not sure why you would pick one over the other. What I'd like to look more into are the people who are defending them. It seems likely that one of them will be lynched, and the people defending them will very likely contain scum who know that the lynchee is not scum. I won't have much time to re-read today as it's a vacation day in the US, but I'll put something together for tomorrow. For now moody pings me a bit.

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Re: Vanillafia D1 - Blue moon with chocolate syrup.

Postby BenM16 » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:50 pm UTC

Hey guys, i've been extremely busy and didn't realize until we started the scope of this game.
I would like to request a replacement pls bc i just don't have the time to do what is neccessary for this game at this time right now... :(


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