Discworld Mafia: Day 5: No Deadline

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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby wam » Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:47 pm UTC

Cheers Madge!

Still wating for Kalira and AJH before i put my vote down.

I had suspcion of minestrone D1 but they are looking better so that leads me to the following.

Scummy AJH Kalira

Leaning Scummy MAdge Minestrone

Townie - Others

Re reading this stuck out to me as odd

New User wrote:I was busy this weekend, but it looks like I didn't miss much here. I still think SDK and wam are not mafia, but either could be a serial killer. Right now I'm just going to concentrate on figuring who is Elucidated Brethren of the Ebon Night.



Why only the Elucidated Brethren of the Ebon Night?, surely as town we want to remove both threats....

This is making me wonder about NU being a SK?
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby SDK » Tue Apr 21, 2015 7:09 pm UTC

Alright, let's case kalira.

kalira's first post is generally fine. Some reasonable questions and condemns the wam wagon for having "pretty shaky justification", which is also pretty reasonable. The only unreasonable thing is that I'm to blame for the wam wagon.

kalira's second post is a bit worse.
kalira wrote:FWIW Lawrencelot, I never said SDK was scummy for wanting people to vote right then. I just said I didn't like it because it only logically ends with a wagon with weakly justifications (IMO), especially on a D1 when there hasn't been much discussion at all.

This follows from her comment about me subversively encouraging the wam wagon. It's fine on the surface, but I feel like the tone of this response (directed at a townie, Lawrencelot) shows a bit of fear. Her later response to the same from me is also short and to the point, I'll give her that.

The rest of her post is about wam, which I'll just quote here for contrast with her later post.
kalira wrote:Wam:
wam wrote:Not liking Minestrones post straight after mine as it pings me with everyword so they have moved up to tie with MAdge and Freezeblade in my scummy list.

Are you talking about the post where he's mentioning you might be a jester? That's the only one I can think that it would be... There's nothing that screams scummy to me in that post other than the fact that he didn't give any opinion as to who to move votes to-- can you give any more detail on what you mean by that? Just prior to that, you said he seemed reasonably townie -- what caused such a quick turnaround in thought?

Overall wam's somewhat neutral leaning only slightly scummy for me because of things like the wording of the post I just quoted and the fact that he didn't explain what about it pings him (though I acknowledge that he said it was a quick post). He tries to explain away that he doesn't remember the logic for his vote on BN because of the intervening madness, even though he said in the post where he voted for him that it was because BN's actions seemed like active lurking, and some of the wording in his posts since almost smack TOO much of scum trying to seem townie. I'm not the biggest fan of how the wagon on him formed, but we have to lynch someone, and he's at least pinged me a couple of times.

wam has turned from being "a really weakly argued wagon against someone for a minor infraction" to "neutral leaning only slightly scummy" based on his response to Minestrone. wam's actions here seem perfectly reasonable to me since Minestrone's post didn't make much sense at all.

Now, kalira's third post comes after wam has only made a single comment in defense, "@ Kalira yes the jester post. It came acrross to me that they were a scum panicking that they were bandwagoning a town, but my POV is biased." In fact, this is only wam's second post since kalira came into the game; the first was the one kalira took issue with. So where is she at now?
kalira wrote:Now, one thing that worries me about wam in addition to some of his pingy stuff while defending himself is that he didn't attempt to defend by claiming a power, even when he thought he was likely to die. His last post before the deadline was extended, he said was posting a short one and would post a detailed post just before deadline. As far as he knew at that point, that short post was his last opportunity to defend himself. If he had a town power, I feel like he would have claimed something at that point, even if just a quick sentence in his short post, to see if town thought it was worth keeping him around. And before anyone says he might be VT, I quote from the signup thread: "Everyone is guaranteed to have a power role." Unless he wants to claim he has just the crappiest of crappy powers, I doubt town!wam doesn't at least bring it up. It seems to me something that scum!wam might misstep and forget to do as he is trying his best to make himself sound towny.

Vote: wam

Now wam is scum. What changed between these three posts to make kalira have such a change of heart? freezeblade's wagon got to 4 votes, with kalira's vote bringing wam's wagon back up to tie. The progression of her read on wam here was completely unnatural, and I suspect was likely pushed based exclusively on her buddy going down. I don't see any reason for townkalira to have such a shift, especially when she entered this game blaming me for getting wam's wagon going. This post where she talks about his lack of claim strikes me as a scummy attempt to get more meat on her vote, but I think it missed the mark. Town kalira shouldn't be so role focused for this to garner a vote.

In the same post also, for posterity:
kalira wrote:As far as FB's "I don't think I can make judgement calls on anyone else at this point," I can 'forgive' him that because it's part of my personality not to be confident in games like this...


And her last post. I read this as scummy based mainly on her extreme jumps with regards to my own alignment.
kalira wrote:SDK: To answer your question, I was willing to back off a little on wam based on freezey's flip, esp since he started the voting on him (though there is the chance it was bussing and he didn't expect the wagon to build up on him), until that typo/slip. I can see scum deciding to take a chance on killing Lawrence based on his "If I survive" post, hoping to hit a good power role, which could mean scum!wam slipped up implying BN was not the mafia's target.

Here, kalira says wam is probably town, except that this thing SDK pointed out is super scummy so he's probably still scum. (Implication: SDK is town)

kalira wrote:As far as who's scum, "meta" tends to suggest the third or fourth person on the lynch tends to be scum, regardless of whether the lynch is of a town or a scum (lynches of independents maaaaybe get a pass there, I can't recall, though since as far as mafia knows they're just as likely town, they might count too). As BN's clearly not scum, you (fourth on the wagon) would seem to be suggested next. I am not sure yet, though. I'd like to go back and reread the votes to see if you were really fourth on, and I still can't separate our playstyle differences from your towniness/scumminess factor yet. You do get some townie factor added as far as I'm concerned for your initial pointing out of wam's typo/slip, for what that's worth.

And here kalira clings to a convention which is sometimes correct, but certainly not enough to use as a sole piece of evidence against me. This whole paragraph sounds so desperate that it has me wondering if maybe I wasn't targeted for the kill last Night because the scum team had hoped to get me lynched (so she felt like she had to try?). There's just absolutely no townie reason to push like this otherwise.


tl;dr: kalira's interactions with the wam wagon, and the progression of her read on wam, don't make sense from a townie perspective. That culiminated in a vote to tie the wagon with freezeblade, kalira's suspected scum buddy. She then takes contradictory stances that imply that I am both town and scum in her mind which ends with a desperate shot at me being scum that again doesn't make sense coming from a townie. I take this to mean that kalira hasn't really given my alignment any thought at all, something I'd think townkalira would be interested in trying to nail down.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby New User » Tue Apr 21, 2015 7:43 pm UTC

@wam wondering why I'm more interested in looking for the mafia right now, I'll explain it in great detail.

If there is a serial killer, there are likely no more than two mafia. A single mafioso with her partner killed is basically a serial killer at that point. Except that the mafioso had a team mate, and we can look back and analyze the interactions to find a scum tell there. The real serial killer was never on a team, and never knew anyone's alignment except their own. So a serial killer tell and a mafia tell would look different. And the kind of mafia tell we're looking for would only be in Day One content if the mafioso has no more surviving teammates.

That makes the mafia easier to find, probably. And we can only lynch one person per day, so the serial killer will still be alive. We have two tools at our disposal here: game content, and power roles. We use the game content to find the mafia, and then we use the power roles to find the serial killer. At least, that's my proposal.

As for who might be the serial killer, there is no harm in speculating but I think the votes should go to the mafia right now. If I had to guess about a serial killer, my first guess would be wam because of his "slip up" at the beginning of D2 regarding the night kills.

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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby SDK » Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:04 pm UTC

Read through ajh for completeness sake and I think he's town. That's mostly based on meta, but I don't see anything he's done so far as scummy, coming from him. The only thing would be the "My vote is actually really flexible, I'm still waiting for a wagon to form" thing, but I don't think that's the correct way to catch a scumjh.


Madge, your vote on ajh is primarily due to his playstyle, yes? As in, you don't really have a read on him, but you want to punish him for playing in a certain way? I don't agree with that in principle, but I'd still like you to expand on that a bit.

Also, do you have any scum reads at all? It seems like your top two (me and ajh) are neutral reads. If we are scum, why?

Are kalira and Minestrone town? What (if anything) do you see as scummy in their play so far?


moody, why are you voting for ajh?
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby Madge » Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:21 am UTC

I've said in the past that I think people with scummy styles (Vytron especially, moody in the past but not so much these days) tend to be the cause of a lot of distraction during the game. This meta of being scummy is both a shield for them when they are in fact scum (since we say, "oh, AJH is lurking and being dismissive of questions - but that's how AJH always is", rather than using that as a reason to lynch), and it is also a pox on the town, even if they are town. (Because we talk about lynching Vytron and argue about it and never actually get around to lynching him, all the while scum is just joining in this discussion and making their own observations and thus getting an opportunity to look townie).

As for the rest of my lists - I don't know. I'm really, really bad at scumhunting so I don't take it as seriously as you do, because it seems that whenever I try and do something big and serious I wind up thinking the scummy guy is oh-so-towny and voting for our town friend. So I say to myself, is it worth me spending two hours of my life on this, when the "high level" stuff in the game (other peoples' power claims, the arguments other people make [so using Jim's read on Bob to determine whether I think Bob is scummy, rather than whether I think Jim is scummy], etc) is so much more helpful to me in determining who is scum. I know many people here have great successes with all sorts of things - meta tells, phrasing, slips, etc. But that style of reads doesn't come naturally to me, so going through and doing re-reads trying to find a slip really doesn't help. At the end of the day we're all playing mafia to have fun, and I'm beginning to realise that it's more fun for me not to do this big, tiresome re-reads so I can find the perfect quote that crystalises my reasoning for why SDK is scummy and why Kalira is not.

Some Australian culture to lay on all of you: this scene of the iconic Australian movie "The Castle" captures the way I feel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJuXIq7OazQ (I am the bumbling lawyer; SDK you are free to paint yourself in either the role of the judge or the competent lawyer) - it's the vibe of the thing, and yeah, just like the lawyer, at the end of the day I may very well be doing a poor job. But it's all I know how to do, I suppose you can say.

And to bring everything full circle, if this becomes a more firm, immovable part of my play style then so be it if people want to lynch me because they think it's not helpful.

To attempt to answer your questions:

- I don't think you are scum as such but at this point I think you are the most helpful to lynch

- I seem to recall Kalira's posts focusing mostly on one issue, that laser-focus might be scum trying to avoid involving her scummates

- Minestrone has been quiet, which scum often use to get under the radar
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby SDK » Wed Apr 22, 2015 1:08 pm UTC

Cool. I have no problem with your playstyle, but I do need to keep you honest which is why I'm asking these questions. You do have reads. Even if you don't trust them, explaining why you hold them lets me (and us) read you. If we can read you, we don't have to lynch you, so I have no plans on lynching you based on playstyle as long as you continue to play along.

Madge wrote:- I don't think you are scum as such but at this point I think you are the most helpful to lynch

Why am I most helpful to lynch? It seems like you have at least minor scum reads on Minestrone and kalira, yet want to lynch me who you have no read on?

Madge wrote:- I seem to recall Kalira's posts focusing mostly on one issue, that laser-focus might be scum trying to avoid involving her scummates

What did you think of my kalira case?
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby moody7277 » Wed Apr 22, 2015 1:44 pm UTC

SDK wrote:moody, why are you voting for ajh?



ajh's post 3, the one I was complaining about so much, started me on considering him scummy. My main complaint at the time, before I did a re-read of fb, was his dismissal of freezeblade's posts, in particular fb's interaction with you. Now that freezeblade has flipped scum, this concern (which IIRC was shared by one or two other people) was well founded.

ajh's post 6. The phrase "waiting for a wagon to form" when in his unofficial votals he shows 4 votes down for wam seemed a little weird. If he'd said "I don't like the current wagon" or some such, it would look less like he was distancing himself from wam.

General antagonism because we've been going at eachother for most of the game might also have a bit to do with it, but that's not a good reason for voting him. In conclusion, fb's flip makes the first cited post less scummy looking than before. Given that, I think I have to put him above wam and maybe kalira in terms of townieness.

Unvote
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby wam » Wed Apr 22, 2015 5:51 pm UTC

First off credit to sdk that is one of the most comprehensvie cases I have read on this site.

When it is spelt out there is is very hard to argue with so

Vote Kalira

Ps that L-2

@ NU that is a very good explanation, I think I hadn't adjusted my own expectations from my initial setup thoughts. So you go back up my townie list.

Moody, between your post wher eyou said there wasnt a reason to change your vote on AJH and your last post unvoting ajh hadn't posted at all. To me this seems odd, especially as you haven't picked a new target for your vote.

This comes across as scum worrying they are on an unpopular lynch.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby Minestrone » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:16 pm UTC

SDK, what do you think is the way to catch a scumjh? A lot of things that are considered normal for them are scummy for anyone else, so what would be scummy for them?

Anyway, if I wasn't voting for kalira before I probably would be now. That was a great analysis.

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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby New User » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:17 pm UTC

Scummiest to towniest list (regarding freezeblades teammate):
kalira
ajh
Madge
moody
Minestrone
SDK
wam

I've just been waiting for more activity before voting. We have two days left until the deadline but unless I hear from kalira or ajh, I don't have much else to say. I am a bit interested in seeing Madge's reaction to SDK's questions.

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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby SDK » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:31 pm UTC

Minestrone wrote:SDK, what do you think is the way to catch a scumjh? A lot of things that are considered normal for them are scummy for anyone else, so what would be scummy for them?

This is based primarily on meta, but I have looked into ajh extensively before, when I was on the verge of lynching him in Vytron Runs Dethy. I chose not to lynch him in that game based in large part on that meta, and chose (correctly) to lynch scum moody instead. Without going into too much detail (since that would make any future meta reads useless), his town games appear to be characterized by questions and jumps and leaps of faith while his scum game (his only scum game on this site, Ghost 2) is much more focused and agenda-driven. The tone of his posting appears to shift as well. What I'm looking for in him is a sign that he's following more than his own (kinda random) reads. I don't see that here. There are certainly some scum tells that will still hold for ajh, but posting random thoughts about where he's at in the game isn't one of them.

But like I said, I think he's town. It's still possible that he's scum, and I'll be keeping an eye on him, but I didn't have a good understanding of why anyone was voting for him. Apparently moody didn't really either since he's now unvoted. Moral of the story is that there are better leads.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby Minestrone » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:41 pm UTC

I'm not sure Ghost 2 is a good indication of behavior in general, since we all acted a lot differently in that game because the mechanics discouraged activity. I see what you mean about their town games but I don't know if they'd act all that differently as scum in a normal game.

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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby moody7277 » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:45 pm UTC

wam wrote:Moody, between your post wher eyou said there wasnt a reason to change your vote on AJH and your last post unvoting ajh hadn't posted at all. To me this seems odd, especially as you haven't picked a new target for your vote.

This comes across as scum worrying they are on an unpopular lynch.


My reason for unvoting is that the read I got from ajh post on fb D1 was much scummier when I wasn't sure about fb. It looked a little less scummy when I was doing the "who else besides wam" post when I came to the same opinion on the lack of content ajh and one other (maybe NU) were pointing out. Upon the re-read SDK's question prompted, I figured that put him tied at the bottom with you and kalira in terms of scumminess. More content from ajh would definitely help, but the current issue isn't what ajh hasn't done, it's what I have done.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby SDK » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:50 pm UTC

Minestrone wrote:I'm not sure Ghost 2 is a good indication of behavior in general, since we all acted a lot differently in that game because the mechanics discouraged activity. I see what you mean about their town games but I don't know if they'd act all that differently as scum in a normal game.

Yep, you may be right. Still not interested in lynching him today. Maybe if kalira and Madge and... wam maybe? ... flip town, then we can talk. He's a ways down my list at the moment.

Actually, Diemo, could you prod ajh please? He hasn't posted since last Friday.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby New User » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:53 pm UTC

We also haven't heard from kalira since D2 started. It's been almost a week.

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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby SDK » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:54 pm UTC

She was April 20th, Monday. It would be good to hear from her again though, yeah.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby New User » Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:01 pm UTC

Oops, I overlooked it twice.

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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby Madge » Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:56 pm UTC

Just re-read SDK's case against Kalira more carefully than I did the first time. Everyone else is right, it seems very compelling. I'm a little bit hesitant because I've known my own reads to "solidify" over time, just from them percolating in the back of my head. But Kalira has certainly moved up a few notches in my scum list. At this point I'd prefer to lynch her over SDK, but that may change when she posts.

I agree that ghost 2 isn't a good indication of scum metas, especially because it discourages activity and AJH is an inactive type of guy.

@SDK - I don't want to lynch you per sae, I'm "willing" to lynch you or think it might be helpful. The reason I think it might be helpful is because, to put it bluntly, I'm terrified of you as scum because you're so good at it. I'm the same with USN, so please take it as a compliment. And besides, I wanted to lynch AJH over you for what I hope are not terrible reasons.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby Madge » Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:58 pm UTC

Also completely unrelated but after finding and watching that scene from The Castle I got my DVD out and watched it last night. Such a good film; a shining example of Australian comedy and "culture" (in a kind of Joe Dirt / Forrest Gump sort of way). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Castle ... an_film%29
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby Diemo » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:26 pm UTC

ajh has been prodded
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby SDK » Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:23 pm UTC

Madge wrote:@SDK - I don't want to lynch you per sae, I'm "willing" to lynch you or think it might be helpful. The reason I think it might be helpful is because, to put it bluntly, I'm terrified of you as scum because you're so good at it. I'm the same with USN, so please take it as a compliment. And besides, I wanted to lynch AJH over you for what I hope are not terrible reasons.

This is the kind of logic you should use when you're in lylo. It'll still be wrong, but then at least acting on your fear would be justified. Killing me in the early game because you're scared I might be scum will be wrong 75% of the time. If it's down to three, you get better odds.

Out of curiosity, would you prefer a game where no "good" players were playing? Wanting to kill players based solely on how good you think they are seems to imply this.

You said in that post that you'd prefer both a kalira lynch and an ajh lynch over me. How do they compare to each other?



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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby Diemo » Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:46 pm UTC

Votals:
kalira (3) - SDK, Minestrone, wam
ajh (1) - Madge


There is a possibility deadline will be extended if ajh doesn't return - if so should I set the deadline over the weekend or leave it till Monday?
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby SDK » Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:54 pm UTC

I don't know that it matters. Seems like kalira's getting lynched today no matter what happens. That said, longer deadlines are always better, especially if the replacement is trying to catch up before Day's end.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby wam » Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:39 pm UTC

Personally I am not around all weekend again so monday would be much better, more disscussion is always good.

MAdge is hedging her bets on Kalira a lot and definatly worth a re look tomorrow.

I am going to give moody the benefit of doubt on that as it seems like a townie considering things rather than scum jumpring around.

Would be interested in peoples second non kalira lynch as I am worried there is such a consensus scum can hide in it without any real opinions.

PErsonally it would be a toss up between madge and ajh, but ajh's abscense gives him a pass as i will wait for either more content or a replacement.

I know its hard to keep interest once your dead but I would be interested in hearing more from BN as he is our confirmed town.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby ajh » Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:48 am UTC

I wasn't opposed to lynching freezeblade, I just don't feel voting for Madge would result in her lynch.
Will probably get a post in later today, for now my reads:
Madge
wam
moody
kalira
Minestrone
SDK
New User
ajh

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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby moody7277 » Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:45 pm UTC

ajh wrote:I wasn't opposed to lynching freezeblade, I just don't feel voting for Madge would result in her lynch.
Will probably get a post in later today, for now my reads:
Madge
wam
moody
kalira
Minestrone
SDK
New User
ajh


I assume that's supposed to be read as scummiest to towniest? Otherwise you at the bottom looks hilarious.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby Diemo » Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:38 pm UTC

Deadline. kalira has been lynched.

Given that it is the weekend, deadline is Monday at 6pm GMT.

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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day 3: Deadline Monday 6PM GMT

Postby Diemo » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:05 pm UTC

And so everyone wakes up the next morning to see what has occured over the night.

kalira was Angua, a town tracker who had protection from non-magical night kills.

New User is dead. New User was Conina the Hairdresser, a town vigilante.

Deadline is next Monday at 6PM GMT.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day 3: Deadline Monday 6PM GMT

Postby Diemo » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:17 pm UTC

Sorry, an unexpected thing has come up with the night actions, and I am attempting to resolve it at the moment. Please don't post in the thread.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day 3: Deadline Monday 6PM GMT

Postby Diemo » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:22 pm UTC

Ok, that is resolved. People can post again
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day 3: Deadline Monday 6PM GMT

Postby SDK » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:40 pm UTC

How strange.

One nightkill last Night. Could mean a few things. To people who knew him better, is New User the type to fire a vig shot Night 1?

If New User did fire a vig shot, it probably wasn't at BigNose, making wam's "slip" innocent. Looking back, New User called Lawrencelot "town enough", though that was two days prior to the lynch. Maybe his opinion changed, but I'd think he would shoot someone else if he did fire. ajh maybe.

New User called wam "town (regarding freezeblades teammate)", but was still on him about the slip, even after I made the comment that wam's slip probably doesn't make sense coming from a serial killer. Might have been a good target to hush that up if wam is scum. In any case, I think it's safe to say that New User wouldn't have gone on about that if he had been responsible for one of the kills.

He should have shot ajh, if not Night 1, then last Night. I wonder why he didn't.



kalira was town. I'll have to look into what that means later.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day 3: Deadline Monday 6PM GMT

Postby SDK » Mon Apr 27, 2015 6:56 pm UTC

1. SDK
2. Madge
3. moody7277
6. Minestrone
8. ajh
10. wam

7. Freezeblade- Mafia Protection Cop/Roleblocker
9. Lawrencelot- Town Jailer
11. BigNose- Town Watcher/Stump
4. kalira - Town tracker/semi-bulletproof
5. New User - Town vig

6 alive, 4 to lynch. We may be in lylo.

Diemo, would you tell us if we were in lylo?


Minestrone, what do you think of wam at this point? What do you think of Madge? You talked a fair bit about kalira and ajh Day 2, but little mention of those two.

Madge, I would still like answers to my question on ajh vs. kalira. Another question: Do you think there is a serial killer?

moody, where are you at now? You didn't really do anything Day 2 after unvoting ajh.

wam, do you think there is a serial killer? Also, what specifically did you like about my kalira case?

ajh, post more please.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day Two: Deadline Friday 4PM GMT

Postby ajh » Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:01 pm UTC

Random thoughts:
moody -
New User wrote:freezeblade didn't have much to say about anyone except SDK and myself. He did mention moody a couple of times, and called moody "towniest".
moody7277 wrote:fb- I can see how his posts could be interpreted as "contentless". The meatiest post was his 7th one, which is just confirming his opinion of SDK's meta (that we should all recognize by now).
moody broke the tie by removing his vote on wam. He then repeatedly said that wam wasn't worth lynching. He seemed a bit wishy-washy on his opinion of freezeblade, didn't vote for freezeblade, reasoning that Madge was scummier and so voted for Madge instead. But he said that he considered the ones voting for freezeblade were town.
wam - scummy in the beginning, unreadable. How are they still alive?
Minestrone - undecided, weak vote on kalira, jumped on wam/BigNose
SDK - looks bad now they've convincingly displayed kalira as scum.
Madge - town after all?
vote: SDK
What do y'all think about claiming results?

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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day 3: Deadline Monday 6PM GMT

Postby SDK » Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:08 pm UTC

ajh wrote:SDK - looks bad now they've convincingly displayed kalira as scum.

Why does me being wrong make me scum? Who should I have gone after instead and why?

ajh wrote:Madge - town after all?

Madge was top of your scum list at the end of Day 2. What changed?

ajh wrote:What do y'all think about claiming results?

You should do so if it prevents a mislynch. Also if it catches scum, of course. I don't think a mass claim is a good idea at this time otherwise. Maybe later in the Day depending on how things shake out.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day 3: Deadline Monday 6PM GMT

Postby Diemo » Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:46 pm UTC

SDK wrote:Diemo, would you tell us if we were in lylo?


It would be quite hard for me to tell when your in LYLO, so only if it is obvious and can't be affected by night powers.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day 3: Deadline Monday 6PM GMT

Postby moody7277 » Mon Apr 27, 2015 8:14 pm UTC

So, with six players able to vote, I think I can make some deductions:

a. If we're at 3-2-1, we're probably at LYLO (unless the SK and scum helpfully attack each other), unless something weird like successful town night power use.

b. If, more optimisitcly, we're at 4-1-1, its still pretty tight. Barring scum-on-scum action, it'd be 1-1-1 on D4 with a mislynch.

Given that, I think I may have results that could be helpful. Unfortunately, no scum result, but given there probably at most one godfather-type role, I can say that at least one of Madge and wam are town. Having the SK also show up as town and thus having 2/3 anti-town roles uncoppable seem too bastardy to me, so I'm discounting that.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day 3: Deadline Monday 6PM GMT

Postby Minestrone » Tue Apr 28, 2015 12:57 am UTC

I can't blame SDK for kalira flipping town. Their case was solidly reasoned, it just turned out to be wrong.

SDK wrote:Minestrone, what do you think of wam at this point? What do you think of Madge? You talked a fair bit about kalira and ajh Day 2, but little mention of those two.


wam: I've liked their content so far, except for the typo/slip about the nightkills yesterday. I think their leading of the FB wagon D1 still overrides the slip though, I don't really see any advantage in bussing a buddy so hard D1, especially in a game with as many power roles as this where you could fool town as much as you like behaviorally and still get caught by an investigation. One of my townier reads.

Madge: I don't have much of a read on her. I don't really like her thing about lynching you for your meta, or her reluctance to commit, but both of those are apparently consistent with her meta. Neutral-Scummy

I'll do you and moody too while I'm at it. My opinion on ajh hasn't changed too much: I don't think we should give them a free pass to low contribution because of their meta but they aren't necessarily a priority to lynch.

moody: Helped facilitate the FB lynch. Decent content. Apparently just claimed cop, but not with any solid scum result. Not that it's too helpful anyway since I doubt we have much leeway for a mislynch today. Neutral town.

SDK: Has been plenty active, like always. Helped lynch FB. Another very townie read.

I don't really know who I want to lynch today, I'll have to do some more reading and thinking.

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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day 3: Deadline Monday 6PM GMT

Postby Madge » Tue Apr 28, 2015 1:37 am UTC

I don't know if there's a serial killer. From what people were saying on D1, it looks like we're likely to have an independent. SDK's case on the serial killer existing seems solid. It looks like with Kalira being semi-bulletproof in addition to her "real" role we might have other people with that as a secondary ability, which might account for the lack of a second death tonight.

The questions:

Out of curiosity, would you prefer a game where no "good" players were playing? Wanting to kill players based solely on how good you think they are seems to imply this.
Probably not, because it's more FUN when we have people like your eminent self, SDK, making fun waves. I would prefer a game that consisted of me and a whole bunch of really good players, because I am sure it would be AWESOME FUN (and they'd lynch me d1 for being useless, I suppose - but at least the mafia would keep me alive)

You said in that post that you'd prefer both a kalira lynch and an ajh lynch over me. How do they compare to each other?
You can't honestly expect me to answer that question now Kalira's flipped town and destroyed my ability to make an unbiased opinion. That said, I was voting AJH at the end of the day, so I think that answers your question better than I could now.

I feel like voting for AJH now but I'm hesitant to do so because of the very real risk of either a sudden scum wagon (do scum have daychat?) and also the fact that my opinion on AJH isn't strong enough to justify a vote at potential LYLO
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day 3: Deadline Monday 6PM GMT

Postby Madge » Tue Apr 28, 2015 1:37 am UTC

EBWOP sorry for bolding those lines, I hope I don't confuse anyone thinking they're votes.
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Re: Discworld Mafia: Day 3: Deadline Monday 6PM GMT

Postby SDK » Tue Apr 28, 2015 4:37 pm UTC

Okay, cool. So here's where I'm at. ajh I'm reading as town until he comes out with a questionable post opening Day 3. Madge keeps sounding townier and townier and now has a (probable) cop result to back her up. wam freaks me out, but he's town too, right? Minestrone, on the other hand, just keeps bugging me for under-the-skin kind of reasons. This I caught reading overnight and has been reinforced by his one post so far Day 3.

So let's look into that. Minestrone is town because of this post, right? He sealed the freezeblade lynch. But that doesn't mean he's town. It means he's not mafia. Probably. Every other post bugs me, but it's so subtle that I have trouble even wrapping my head around what I'm seeing. He's safe. He's undercutting cases and ignoring them as it suits him. He's not pushing. He's not engaging.

His first post was actually bad. That vote on BigNose was weak and looked pushed with a scum agenda to me, especially when he followed up with the vote on wam.

Day 1 he thought wam was scum. He unvotes, but laments the reason why he's doing so (my and moody's meta reads) which strikes me as very strange considering in that same post he says "You're right that I can't really find fault with any of their later posts though so maybe I should take a wider view". Day 2 he comments on wam's slip and nothing else. Day 3 he now thinks wam is town other than the slip. I don't like that progression.

ajh was Minestrone's other suspect throughout Day 2. "I'd rather lynch kalira today but I wouldn't mind seeing an ajh lynch" along with undercutting my ajh town read in a couple spots. Now, come Day 3, Minestrone is sitting back, "I don't think we should give them a free pass to low contribution because of their meta but they aren't necessarily a priority to lynch". This is especially concerning given ajh's entrance into this Day, voting me and contradicting his own previous reads. I suspect Minestrone as scum would take this opportunity to wait for a wagon (as he did). I strongly suspect that Minestrone as town would follow his previous read, but he doesn't even make mention of my questions to ajh let alone try to get a conversation going.

All in all, Minestrone is acting scummy beneath the surface, which I think is where you have to look to catch him. He's shown before that he's good at writing like a townie (to my eye at least, in MMM), so this unquestioning, unengaged agenda is what I'm looking for. I think I found it.

Not going to vote yet though. We've got time and I want to see more from ajh before we end the Day.
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