SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

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mike-l
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby mike-l » Fri Mar 20, 2015 9:39 pm UTC

With the particular roles and targets, yes killing Vytron would have been better for Asmodieus. But he didn't know the exact roles or who would target who. If Madge targeted Vytron or your roles were swapped so she was paranoid and you were sane then the only person that could be ruled out is Madge if he claims he got town on her. Suppose the results were:

wam - Dead
mike-l - Asmodieus Town
Vytron - Asmodieus Scum/Madge Scum
Madge - Asmodieus Scum/Vytron Town
Asmodieus - Vytron Scum/Madge Town

or the same thing with Madge/Vytrons results swapped.

Then it could be:
Vytron scum, Madge insane, Asmo sane, mike naive

or
Madge scum, Vytron paranoid, asmodieus insane, mike sane/naive

If the results were swapped
Vytron scum, Madge paranoid, Asmodieus sane, mike naive

Madge ruled out

If madge investigated me but the roles were swapped, so she got scum on me and vytron got town on madge, then it could be
Vytron scum, madge insane/paranoid, mike naive asmodieus sane
Madge ruled out

It was pretty clear that Vytron wouldn't investigate me, so from Asmo's POV, the only way Vytron could be ruled out is if exactly what happened happened. And in that end game, Asmo and Vytron vote each other and Madge gets to decide, I'd probably be happy with that game if I were him.

On the other hand, killing Vytron gives the possibility that both useful cops are dead and Madge and I are paranoid and naive, he can claim scum on someone and if madge targetted Vytron she could be insane and him paranoid, and noone is ruled out. But that's the only case of that. I'd probably have gone with killing me and claiming Madge town.
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Vytron
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Vytron » Fri Mar 20, 2015 10:19 pm UTC

I see. We indeed were lucky that Madge turned out to be Sane Cop, as, if I was sane cop my failure to investigate mike would have made the endgame very hard.

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Madge
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Madge » Fri Mar 20, 2015 11:53 pm UTC

So basically I saved everyone by investigating the person I wasn't told to investigate? sweet.

(nah really I saved everyone by drawing sane cop, as it seems)
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Madge » Sat Mar 21, 2015 12:01 am UTC

Also on a more personal note I'm a 27 year old woman currently working as a traffic engineer (I design upgrades to intersections). I have two partners (one of almost 8 years, one of just over two) who both have phDs (in pure mathematics and computer science) and thus make me feel very uneducated, though neither of them have "real" jobs. (The computer scientist is now studying psychology and is hoping to get a phD in psychology *as well*, while the mathematician is trying to publish papers and doing private tutoring on the side).

My hobbies include cross-stitching, board games, and watching reality TV. (I am a huge survivor fan). I'm also studying French (fell in love with it in high school), and Italian (the computer scientist's parents were both born in Italy so I kind of feel obliged to do that, and boy howdy does it impress his grandparents!)
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Vytron » Sat Mar 21, 2015 2:52 am UTC

Oh, I thought the whole two boyfriends thing was a joke :shock:

You have my admiration, you've got to be awesome if your partners don't mind sharing you with each other considering the alternative may be being without you!

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Madge
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Madge » Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:11 am UTC

Not a joke, haha.

I'm Carp in this diagram:
https://i.imgur.com/xHHU4SN.png

Polyamory - the name for this sort of relationship - is becoming very, very popular these days, so you'll find tons and tons of articles about it. Actually a magazine wrote an article about us. (The journalist emailed a meetup group we were members of looking for people to interview, and we responded to it - we're not famous or anything.)

But yeah, you can read the article at these links: https://i.imgur.com/DhFtlNW.jpg https://i.imgur.com/npZtcj8.jpg , I think the journalist was pretty fair and balanced about the whole deal.
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SDK
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby SDK » Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:14 am UTC

So... You're Carp?
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Madge
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Madge » Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:24 am UTC

Yeah, that's what I said..........
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby SDK » Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:02 am UTC

Whoa, missed that. Carry on.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Asmodieus » Sat Mar 21, 2015 11:46 pm UTC

Madge wrote:Also on a more personal note I'm a 27 year old woman currently working as a traffic engineer (I design upgrades to intersections).


I'm very interested in traffic patterns. Living in Miami, eastbound traffic in the morning is absolute hell.

As a traffic engineer, what kinds of things do you have to take into account when you upgrade intersections? Are the lights pre-programmed based on known traffic patterns or are they dynamic in the way they switch? Also, what kind of traffic is prioritized for given hours of the day?

I read this article a while back saying that cities that added more lanes to high traffic zones did not see a decrease in congestion. What do you think would be some ways other ways to alleviate traffic not involving lanes or lights? Personally, (and this is pure conjecture) I feel that if major cities let people out at staggered times it could reduce congestion dramatically. So a fraction of people working in large metropolitan centers come in an hour earlier or so. That's assuming everyone follows their schedules and that nothing goes without a hitch though
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Madge » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:59 am UTC

Awesome questions!!1! I'm half asleep at the moment and relatively inexperienced, so don't take anything I say as coming from a high authority.

As a traffic engineer, what kinds of things do you have to take into account when you upgrade intersections?


I was pretty brief in my description of my job so I'll just expand a little: the way my job works is my boss gives me an intersection that needs upgrades to it. Generally it's a combination of a safety issue and a congestion issue, though we do have some intersections that are solely congestion problems - but we obviously try to improve safety at the same time. I read everything I can find about it (including complaints from the public, crash statistics, talking with the local government, public transport, anyone with underground cables, etc) and then together with my boss we work out a design that achieves the goals. We then give that design (a quick sketch of it) to a contractor who makes a pretty design all to scale and everything. We call that a 15% design, because it's meant to be 15% of the work done (I think? It might just be a name). We then send the 15% design (along with a huge long document called a "charter" that contains a summary of all the research we've done) to the next step in the chain.

The scope of our upgrades are what I like to refer to as "running as fast as we can to stay in the same place" - we basically get marginal improvements to the quality of the intersection because the nature of what we do is short-term and small upgrades (so we just do things like lengthening turning pockets, adding lanes to intersections, installing mast arms, banning right turns ("left turns" in the US). That sort of thing).

Are the lights pre-programmed based on known traffic patterns or are they dynamic in the way they switch? Also, what kind of traffic is prioritized for given hours of the day?

Most traffic lights in Australia (and many around the world) are on what we call SCATS, or the Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Co ... fic_System . The light timings are dynamic based on when vehicles are detected at different legs of the intersection, but they also have templates 'pre-programmed' in. (So, say, the default if all legs are getting demand is that East-West might get 90 seconds, then North-South gets 30 seconds - but if demand for North-South falls off, then the system will end the North-South after, say, 15 seconds and the remaining 15 seconds will go to East-West). But that same traffic light might have North-South at 60 and East-West at 30 as the default on weekends. I know that to account for people travelling on long weekends that lights in country towns have different default phases programmed in for that. (In reality the phases have letters - A, B, C, D, E, etc, though a set of signals might only have an A, C, E, and F phase because the B and D phases are 'disabled' in the current pattern - and the phases last for very specific amounts of times like 34 seconds. Usually a total phase will run from anywhere from 120 seconds to 180 seconds, but there are longer cycle times on our network at some really monstrous intersections).

I'm not sure what you mean by "kind of traffic"? Do you just mean direction of travel like I mentioned above, or do you mean, say, buses vs trucks vs cars vs bikes vs pedestrians? Fun fact: the lights can be manually controlled and often vehicles transferring critical patients between hospitals and organs for transplants are given green lights. They also do this for ambulances, etc. I've also heard of a "green light machine" they're testing which is a SIM card that gives green lights to the vehicle who has it.

Asmodieus wrote:I read this article a while back saying that cities that added more lanes to high traffic zones did not see a decrease in congestion.

Yeah, the reason that happens is people go, "oh, the freeway has two new lanes so it's not nearly so slow now! I will use it instead of the longer way I was using before/will make that trip during peak hour I otherwise would let wait". When you increase capacity you encourage people to use the road. That's bad. You want to have as few vehicles as possible.

What do you think would be some ways other ways to alleviate traffic not involving lanes or lights?


Self-driving cars are my #1 at the moment. We already have technology on the row where cars can "platoon" (follow each other) really closely using those faux-self driving features, as well as automatic breaking. These things, if universal, can increase the capacity of the roads immensely. Once self-driving cars are ubiquitous they will be able to travel much faster and much closer together than human-driven cars. There will also be fewer cars on the road, and you can do things like program your car to pick your kids from school at 3 and then pick you up from work at 5, reducing the number of redundant trips. You'll also have people being less likely to own a car and more likely to just "hire" one like a taxi.

But on a more realistic note, I think ramp-metering is king, especially for the city I live in (Perth, Western Australia) - here's a wikipedia page - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramp_meter . Basically it's a little traffic light they put at freeway on-ramps to control how much traffic is allowed on the freeway very precisely by allowing only one or two vehicles at a time. Freeways have a theoretical capacity of about 2,200 vehicles/lane/hour, but in reality you only get about 1800. This image is pretty good: http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publication ... ure5_1.gif - basically the flow naturally "breaks down" and it becomes less efficient (you see it happens in 20 minutes on that one!), so people move slower and you end up with a less efficient freeway. Ramp metering uses those ramps and special software and road sensors to keep it in the "optimal"/"safe" 2,200 v/l/h. You end up having to wait 2 or 3 minutes to get onto the freeway but you are travelling at 80kmh the entire way, rather than at 30 or 40, so it's much faster overall.

Unfortunately it's not the sort of thing that the public tends to think is a good idea, so there's often opposition to it, and it's not a panacea because if the demand outstrips the capacity you'll get flow breakdown anyway unless you want to make people wait 10+ minutes for their green light.

Asmodieus wrote:Personally, (and this is pure conjecture) I feel that if major cities let people out at staggered times it could reduce congestion dramatically. So a fraction of people working in large metropolitan centers come in an hour earlier or so. That's assuming everyone follows their schedules and that nothing goes without a hitch though


My understanding is something like 30% (!!!) of traffic during peak hour is doing a... what's the word... a trip that they could have done at any time (e.g. they're going shopping as opposed to going to work or dropping their kids off at school). I had a look at the traffic flow patterns of my city and found something like 20-40% of people at peak hour were going past the main area where people work, and continuing on elsewhere. So I don't think that would really make too much of a difference.

I think the other thing that would really help congestion is improved public transport services. Our train system carries as many people into the city as our roads do (I think - it might even be more - it was about 2 years ago!). Unfortunately, public transport is EXTREMELY expensive, and there's a limit of how many trains you can physically put into the line one after the other since they need to follow at safe distances and such. People are always complaining about ticket prices in Perth, but the transport company only recoups about 25% (!) of the cost of what it actually takes to transport people.

That ended up a bit long but I hope it was useful for you! Happy to answer any follow up questions you have.
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bessie
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby bessie » Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:41 am UTC

Madge, thank you for the interesting and informative post (the one about the traffic). I spend a lot of my time in traffic or thinking about traffic (my daily commute includes this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Crush_interchange ). On my drive home today I passed two car accidents and neither of them had any impact on the traffic flow because the freeway was so congested anyway. I agree with you about the ramp metering. We have it on almost every freeway entrance. After you upgrade an intersection, do you do any studies to see if the safety has improved? What types of improvements have the most impact on safety? I am interested because I see so many traffic accidents and it makes me very sad.

I found your other posts interesting and informative too, I just wanted to talk about the traffic.

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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Madge » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:20 am UTC

Everyone loves talking about traffic because we all make it! It's fun to actually have a job people can relate to so readily - but you also get people thinking they know about traffic when really most people have no idea.

Thanks for the link to the Orange Crush Interchange! I am sure you won't appreciate my saying so, but I really love looking at complicated interchanges. I think they're beautiful! But Orange Crush looks like it will take some time to get my head around.

bessie wrote:We have it on almost every freeway entrance. After you upgrade an intersection, do you do any studies to see if the safety has improved? What types of improvements have the most impact on safety? I am interested because I see so many traffic accidents and it makes me very sad.


Unfortunately we don't have any sort of follow up to check how effective our interventions are. It kind of bothers a lot of people here, and I do know one guy who does his own follow ups. Our crash data is over 5 years so you would really be best off investigating things that were constructed 5 years ago, which means things that were designed ~8 years ago, to have a good amount of data.

Unfortunately something like 85% of crashes are driver error, so you really need to "fix" the drivers to improve safety. So my answer to this is the same as congestion - self driving cars! Once they're robust enough to be better than people (which is not very hard!), we'll see huge improvements to accident rates.

At the end of the day things like improving the safety of the vehicles themselves (volvos are the safest car, fwiw; I think they have a goal that nobody is killed in a volvo after 2020). You also want to make it so the drivers feel like they're in danger when really they're not - people drive safer when they think they're in danger. There's an old adage: "the safest car is one which has a dagger attached to the steering wheel, two inches from the driver's heart". Nobody would speed in such a car, now, would they?

The cop-out answers to increasing safety though: the more you "remove" the hazard the better you're doing. So turning intersections into bridges, that sort of thing. Banning right (left in US) turns. That sort of thing.

Another "fun fact" - our current "goal" is to aim to get deaths and serious injuries on roads down to 0. (We know it's almost impossible, but any other goal would be saying it's OK for people to die on roads, which it isn't). So we're beginning to consider treatments that will increase the number of minor injuries (cuts, concussions, etc - or just property damage) but will reduce the number of serious injuries. An example: putting a wire rope barrier ( this sort of thing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87CjZv_O2oQ ) along the side of a road. Now, most people who run off the road might be able to regain control of their car and get back on the road, a little shaken up but none the worse for wear; these people would have their cars damaged and possibly receive minor injuries from hitting a rope like that. But the few people who wouldn't regain control of their car and would hit a tree and get killed, they are saved by the rope. So you prevent a death but perhaps cause 10 injuries by doing so. (However, if you have a wire rope barrier right next to the edge of the road, you can bet people will be more careful not to run off the road! Back to the knife-pointing-at-your-heart example: if you're scared you're more careful)

If you're not already well-read on the subject, articles about things they do in Europe (including removing all signs and traffic lights! I didn't read this article but it looks like the sort of thing that I'm talking about: http://www.spiegel.de/international/spi ... 48747.html). It's very innovative and quite scary to me, but at the same time really beautiful.

For what it's worth, the roads are safer than they've ever been! Hope that makes you feel better.

The world is pretty much the best it's ever been. Remember that!

(People are always shocked to hear that we have less hunger, war, violence, etc in the world today than we have ever before.)
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby mike-l » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:33 am UTC

I'd suggest that 85% of accidents being driver error is a good thing, and that the ideal number is 100%. If accidents are not due to driver error that's a design problem!
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Madge
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Madge » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:49 am UTC

I'm trying to find the thing with the best statistics on it but it's hard!

This report is pretty good: http://rac.com.au/mwg-internal/de5fs23h ... JFrgAk,&dl

2% of crashes are caused due to the vehicle being deficient ("mechanical/tyres/load"), and 2% are caused by animals (kangaroos are to us as deer are to the americans, I understand: forever getting hit by cars)


I also found the quote below at http://www.visualexpert.com/Resources/r ... dents.html that cites a 1977 study - I wonder if there's a more recent one, since 1977 is quite a while ago and we have much safer systems now.

A comprehensive study of road safety (Treat et al., 1977) found that human error was the sole cause in 57% of all accidents and was a contributing factor in over 90%. In contrast, only 2.4% were due solely to mechanical fault and 4.7% were caused only by environmental factors. Other studies have reported similar results.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby mike-l » Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:32 am UTC

Yeah I'm not arguing against any of that. Just stating that "85% of accidents are driver error" is not a bad thing. It means that there aren't systemic problems causing crashes. Roads and cars are generally safe, people, like you Madge, are doing a good job.

Ideally there are 0 accidents but, barring that, accidents being because individual drivers screw up means that the system is working well.
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Madge » Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:46 am UTC

oh! I wasn't trying to contradict you. I was trying to see if I could find you some better info so you could feel even better about it, haha :)
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby mike-l » Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:56 am UTC

Heh. Yeah I have a hard time discussing without being contradictory :). It's a personal flaw

Since we're all sharing, I'm not big on going too much into detail, but I'm a 31 year old teacher (in the classroom I somehow avoid my usual arrogant tone of "no you're wrong") in Canada, love the Leafs (who suck), and spend most of my free time on all things math/science/logical, and spend far too much time drinking beer, watching TV, and reading xkcd forums and reddit (all of my chrome recommended sites are Reddit or XKCD)
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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby bessie » Sun Mar 29, 2015 1:05 am UTC

Thank you Madge and Mike for your replies, I've been thinking about traffic for two days. Far too many people commute long distances to their work, either by choice or by necessity. The 1.5-2 hours I am in my car just become part of my workday. I actually like looking at roads and maps. I remember when I was in Swindon and someone told me Swindon was famous this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Roun ... Swindon%29 so of course I had to go check it out!

Madge wrote:Unfortunately we don't have any sort of follow up to check how effective our interventions are. It kind of bothers a lot of people here, and I do know one guy who does his own follow ups. Our crash data is over 5 years so you would really be best off investigating things that were constructed 5 years ago, which means things that were designed ~8 years ago, to have a good amount of data.

I find this very puzzling. I would think that everyone (your company, the local government, and the general public) would want that information. How could you improve your process without knowing if your upgrades are effective?

Madge wrote:Another "fun fact" - our current "goal" is to aim to get deaths and serious injuries on roads down to 0. (We know it's almost impossible, but any other goal would be saying it's OK for people to die on roads, which it isn't). So we're beginning to consider treatments that will increase the number of minor injuries (cuts, concussions, etc - or just property damage) but will reduce the number of serious injuries.


I think this is a very important thing to consider when designing roads. I usually see a few freeway accidents every day and the cars may be badly damaged but I don’t see the paramedics very often. Unfortunately, it seems like the opposite is true when there is an accident at an intersection. I just did a search to try to find a comparison between injuries on freeways or intersections, and the causes. I didn’t find what I was looking for (but I found this http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811366.pdf so I have something to read later). I would guess that there are more serious injuries in intersection accidents than freeway accidents, maybe because they can involve bicycles and pedestrians. Or maybe the freeways are becoming safer because of improvements like the rope barrier.

Madge wrote:This report is pretty good: http://rac.com.au/mwg-internal/de5fs23h ... JFrgAk,&dl


This link isn’t working for me. Can you repost it or pm it to me?

Madge wrote:If you're not already well-read on the subject, articles about things they do in Europe (including removing all signs and traffic lights! I didn't read this article but it looks like the sort of thing that I'm talking about: http://www.spiegel.de/international/spi ... 48747.html). It's very innovative and quite scary to me, but at the same time really beautiful.

I will need to think about this. I can’t see how this would work in a large city.

And if anyone is interested, I’m married with no children and a Labrador retriever, and my husband is in a band (which can be like having a bunch of children around). I was briefly a physics teacher (it didn’t work out) and now I’m in aerospace (not working out great either), and am considering my next big life adventure.

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Re: SDK Runs Dethy - GAME OVER

Postby Madge » Sun Mar 29, 2015 2:33 am UTC

If I remember at work tomorrow I can easily find you some statistics based on accidents on freeways vs accidents at intersections, I think, maybe.

bessie wrote: How could you improve your process without knowing if your upgrades are effective?


*shrug* is the only answer I can give you. It's pretty dumb. That said, now I think about it, there was a big project on the eelup roundabout, where there was an average of 2 accidents per day (super dangerous, natch). I was in the area when they did the upgrade, and during the construction period of 3 months there were no accidents, so people were talking about that and very proud of it.

Rest assured though that *other* places test road stuff pretty well, and we just kind of steal the stuff that's been well-established.

I uploaded the document I linked before, I think I talked it up a bit much: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1THjl ... sp=sharing
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