Sherlock Mafia - Game over - someone wins!

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UniqueScreenname
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby UniqueScreenname » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:21 pm UTC

If I had a kingmaker, I would kill whoever was scummier. Duh. You want me to pick someone now? Impossible.

I am not against people voting themselves for the box. I understand not wanting to trust other people. I am more in favor of withholding box votes until later in the day though so that we could make a more informed decision.
just_me wrote:I am somewhat surprised that people find a vote on a person who hasn't posted yet to be "uninformed".. its either a randomvote, a confusion or fishing.
Mine was rather intended as randomvote but it looks like it turned out to be fishing.
This doesn't really explain why your vote for me was justified with pure falsehood. I could understand if it was confusion, but calling it a random/fishing vote when it was truly illogical doesn't make any sense, still.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Djehutynakht » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:51 pm UTC

Xenomortis wrote:
serrapaladin wrote:Not knowing whether scum have daytalk makes this a bit more difficult. It's probably just better to assume they do.
When does posting usually kick off? I'd be willing to wagon just_me, but I'm wary of how many people aren't contributing yet.

Looking through wam's last five games, three have had scum have night-chat only (Ice and Fire, Community Paintball, and Random Newbie), two have had them able to chat at any point (Eureka and Pick your Chaos).
From this, I determine nothing.



We also had 24/7 chat in Wam's latest game (Worst Roles)
________________________________________


Serrapaladin strikes me as a bit suspicious. Maybe because he's here with his strange ways. I agree that the bandwagon is a bit suspicious as well as just general vibes.


I also tend to trust Just_me's analysis (being a hapless former victim to it). Not entirely, and I do so enjoy poking holes in it, but what he does have to say is valuable.

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serrapaladin
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby serrapaladin » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:53 pm UTC

just_me wrote:So lets see what the cat dragged in:
serrapaladin wrote:I don't even know what just_me means by scum being able to coordinate green voting. If scum want to conspire to give a self-voting townie the box, I'm okay with that. If you mean that scum will be able to all vote for one of theirs to win the box, I'm okay with that too, since they'll out themselves in the process and the misfiring pistol is the only thing scum might have a reason to go for, and that just has a 50% chance of even working.

This does not make any sense. And is highly scummy (or nooby) in my eyes.
1) They could simply say, oh I didn't want a deadlock, so I just voted the other person I thought towniest. Then you have to deal with plenty of wine.
2) The box is powerfull for scum, simply because town will not be able to use the power. Plus they can use the rolecop (which will be near-to-useless to town).

It's also worth noting that thinking scum can coordinate their box-votes implicitly assumes some sort of day-talk which I'll get to after this.

No it does not. In a situation where everyone votes herself one scum might just simply change his vote. For them its the same who of them gets the box. It doesn't need to be explicit coordination via communication.

Alright then, so you're not being stupid, you're just assuming that town is full of children who would all stubbornly selfvote until the deadline and not compromise unless you tell them not to selfvote. Got it! That's also fairly worrying, but at least not as scummy as I thought.

just_me wrote:
serrapaladin wrote:Wanting to control the box choice and target is awful. The whole point of voting for the box is that someone we consider town gets it. Predetermining the action just makes it that much easier for scum to counter it. Anyone who uses the box should of course claim the result the next morning. The next person to get the box will tell whether they were lying about the item. If scum does happen to get the box, I doubt they would do something to give themself away.

What kind of "countering" do you have in mind? (I am just asking because I can't think of anything, you shouldn't explain it if its helpful to scum and non-obvious)
I see your point though to some extent here. My argument for determining the action beforehand would be that we can't be sure we hit a town and its risk-reduction to determine the action in advance. The only problem is that we might pick PR, who have more information and could use the box to better avail than the decision of the thread.

That's why we have the person with the box claim their action the next morning. If scum gets the box, they won't get away with lying about what item they used, because on the next day a different player gets the box and can tell what has been used. Similarly, scum couldn't really get away with choosing a "scummy" item over a useful one, because town would have no reason to go for a bad item. We won't know who scum targets either way.

If town gets the box, we really hinder their chance at having a successful investigation. Say we tell a townie to track someone who is scum. That person now obviously won't submit a kill, or any other night action. Similarly, if we announce who should be watched, that player obviously won't be targeted for a kill. I don't know if scum have a way of killing the person with the box, but if they do, they might save it for when the investigation is about to reveal something useful.


I think if we're going to use the cops (which we'll have to if the game isn't over after watcher/tracker and maybe rolecop), we should have the same person do all three cops.

just_me wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Vote: just_me

for that awful, uniformed post.

bit quick to the vote, but hey, third one on the bandwaggon is scum right.. not second one.
(honestly I think he just got impressed by serras post.)


serrapaladin wrote:When does posting usually kick off? I'd be willing to wagon just_me, but I'm wary of how many people aren't contributing yet.

eh.. what? There are two people voting me and you are willing to bandwagon on a vote based on one post. This makes you look plenty scummy (and this is not OMGUS)

What's wrong with placing an early vote? I really hope you're kidding about wagon-position correlating with alignment. Running up wagons is how you get information about people. If all you do is chat until deadline and then lynch the first person to get wagoned, you won't get the same range of readable reactions out of people. It's cute that you think saying "this is not OMGUS" does anything in your favour.

RVS basically kickstarts the process of wagon-creation. For a good example, see the first few pages of this game or basically the entirety of this one.

Here's a more standard mafiascum game.


Angua wrote:If you don't guess at the set-up, then what are you supposed to talk about on D1?

That's exactly the point. If you don't chose someone to start pressuring, even if it is for weak reasons, you'll have nothing to go off D1.

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby StubbsKVM » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:00 pm UTC

boxvote: Serrapaladin
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Djehutynakht » Mon Aug 19, 2013 8:43 pm UTC

You know, I think I'm rather serious on my bouer boxvote for now actually.

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby bouer » Mon Aug 19, 2013 9:08 pm UTC

serrapaladin wrote:I think if we're going to use the cops (which we'll have to if the game isn't over after watcher/tracker and maybe rolecop), we should have the same person do all three cops.


Would you mind you explain your thinking there? I can't even understand how the cops could be useful to anyone at all, because you don't know their sanity. If someone is investigated 3 times you'll have one result that says one thing, and two more that say something else, and you won't know which is correct. Am I misinterpreting something?

StubbsKVM wrote:boxvote: Serrapaladin


May I ask why? I've seen nothing in their posts that makes them look more trustworthy than anyone else, except for the fact they are definitely not lurking.

Djehutynakht wrote:You know, I think I'm rather serious on my bouer boxvote for now actually.


May I ask why? Not that I'm ungrateful, but I wouldn't have guessed that I'd posted enough for anyone to be serious in trusting me.

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Suzaku » Tue Aug 20, 2013 2:02 am UTC

Current Votals:

just_me - 1 (moody7277)


Not Voting: Angua, cjquines, Djehutynakht, serrapaladin, StubbsKVM, Thirdkoopa, UniqueScreenname, Valius II, Xenomortis, bouer, dimochka, just_me

13 alive, 7 to lynch. Deadline in just under 2.5 days.

Current Box Votals:

Angua - 1 (moody7277)
Xenomortis - 1 (Xenomortis)
bouer - 2 (bouer, Djehutynakht)
serrapaladin - 1 (StubbsKVM)


Not Voting: Angua, cjquines, dimochka, just_me, serrapaladin, Thirdkoopa, UniqueScreenname, Valius II
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby serrapaladin » Tue Aug 20, 2013 3:19 am UTC

<3 stubbs

The cop thing is a little bit complicated, but if all three are used by town, there's a good chance we'll be able to get some info out of it. If one is used by scum, the other two are rendered useless, so our best chance at getting something out them is having the same person use all 3.

With the deadline in under 3 days, how is this going to work?

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Angua » Tue Aug 20, 2013 6:39 am UTC

Gah, I had it in my head that the deadline was Friday, not Wednesday. Will be doing a better post this afternoon and getting some preliminary voting down, but don't have time this morning.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Xenomortis » Tue Aug 20, 2013 7:49 am UTC

serrapaladin wrote:The cop thing is a little bit complicated, but if all three are used by town, there's a good chance we'll be able to get some info out of it. If one is used by scum, the other two are rendered useless, so our best chance at getting something out them is having the same person use all 3.

This.
They're useless on their own and we'll need flips. Unfortunately, one of them is random and that might prove a problem.
Image

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby just_me » Tue Aug 20, 2013 8:23 am UTC

serrapaladin"
Alright then, so you're not being stupid, you're just assuming that town is full of children who would all stubbornly selfvote until the deadline and not compromise unless you tell them not to selfvote. Got it! That's also fairly worrying, but at least not as scummy as I thought.
[/quote]
So you actually don't advocate self-voting at all. If this is your view why tell people to selfvote in the first place. I wouldn't have mentioned it if people weren't pointlessly selfvoting. It just doesn't give us any info and as you say yourself in the end we will anyway have to compromise.
[quote="just_me wrote:
serrapaladin wrote:Wanting to control the box choice and target is awful. The whole point of voting for the box is that someone we consider town gets it. Predetermining the action just makes it that much easier for scum to counter it. Anyone who uses the box should of course claim the result the next morning. The next person to get the box will tell whether they were lying about the item. If scum does happen to get the box, I doubt they would do something to give themself away.

That's why we have the person with the box claim their action the next morning. If scum gets the box, they won't get away with lying about what item they used, because on the next day a different player gets the box and can tell what has been used. Similarly, scum couldn't really get away with choosing a "scummy" item over a useful one, because town would have no reason to go for a bad item. We won't know who scum targets either way.

So we should maybe predetermine what is a scummy item?
I think the rolecop should not be used it is too powerfull in scum hands and not nearly as useful to town.
If town gets the box, we really hinder their chance at having a successful investigation. Say we tell a townie to track someone who is scum. That person now obviously won't submit a kill, or any other night action. Similarly, if we announce who should be watched, that player obviously won't be targeted for a kill. I don't know if scum have a way of killing the person with the box, but if they do, they might save it for when the investigation is about to reveal something useful.

I agree.

[quote="serrapaladin"]
What's wrong with placing an early vote? I really hope you're kidding about wagon-position correlating with alignment. Running up wagons is how you get information about people. If all you do is chat until deadline and then lynch the first person to get wagoned, you won't get the same range of readable reactions out of people. It's cute that you think saying "this is not OMGUS" does anything in your favour.

RVS basically kickstarts the process of wagon-creation. For a good example, see the first few pages of this game
Might be a language problem. Bandwagoning is here seen as a bad thing. Jumping on easy votes without giving it a lot of thought. The problem I had was not your first vote but your statement that you would be happy to bandwagon me now.
Pointing out that its not OMGUS was to clarify that I seriously mean what I posted about you. In other games I sometimes note that my post might not be entirely just because of OMGUS, here I don't have the feeling that it clouds my judgement.

@USN
My vote should stand independantly of what came after. I just wanted to vote some lurker before commenting.

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby StubbsKVM » Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:10 am UTC

Well, serra is trying to get the game going, and his analysis of the box looks pretty good, so I've developed a townread on him. I could also vote myself, but that's so lame ;)
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby dimochka » Tue Aug 20, 2013 2:02 pm UTC

box vote: Xenomortis

Pretty much because his reaction on the cop reads is identical to mine except my post got erased because I was auto logged out. If scum gets even one cop action, the rest of them can be most likely thrown away, unless we can prove that two of them were definitely wrong. Scum can easily lie on the cop, blame it on being the wrong cop result, and we won't ever know.

Also, as we've done in games like Necrocultia, in which we don't tell the wizard whom to target, don't tell the person on whom to use his action. There is no reason for scum to know what we're doing otherwise it's just a wasted action.

I still completely don't understand just_me's vote on USN, but it did get quite a few reactions out there so, if that was the purpose, it was successful.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby just_me » Tue Aug 20, 2013 2:32 pm UTC

This is a repost of the post up there with proper formatting:
Spoiler:
serrapaladin wrote:Alright then, so you're not being stupid, you're just assuming that town is full of children who would all stubbornly selfvote until the deadline and not compromise unless you tell them not to selfvote. Got it! That's also fairly worrying, but at least not as scummy as I thought.

So you actually don't advocate self-voting at all. If this is your view why tell people to selfvote in the first place. I wouldn't have mentioned it if people weren't pointlessly selfvoting. It just doesn't give us any info and as you say yourself in the end we will anyway have to compromise.
serrapaladin wrote:Wanting to control the box choice and target is awful. The whole point of voting for the box is that someone we consider town gets it. Predetermining the action just makes it that much easier for scum to counter it. Anyone who uses the box should of course claim the result the next morning. The next person to get the box will tell whether they were lying about the item. If scum does happen to get the box, I doubt they would do something to give themself away.
That's why we have the person with the box claim their action the next morning. If scum gets the box, they won't get away with lying about what item they used, because on the next day a different player gets the box and can tell what has been used. Similarly, scum couldn't really get away with choosing a "scummy" item over a useful one, because town would have no reason to go for a bad item. We won't know who scum targets either way.

So we should maybe predetermine what is a scummy item?
I think the rolecop should not be used it is too powerfull in scum hands and not nearly as useful to town.
If town gets the box, we really hinder their chance at having a successful investigation. Say we tell a townie to track someone who is scum. That person now obviously won't submit a kill, or any other night action. Similarly, if we announce who should be watched, that player obviously won't be targeted for a kill. I don't know if scum have a way of killing the person with the box, but if they do, they might save it for when the investigation is about to reveal something useful.

I agree.

serrapaladin wrote:What's wrong with placing an early vote? I really hope you're kidding about wagon-position correlating with alignment. Running up wagons is how you get information about people. If all you do is chat until deadline and then lynch the first person to get wagoned, you won't get the same range of readable reactions out of people. It's cute that you think saying "this is not OMGUS" does anything in your favour.

RVS basically kickstarts the process of wagon-creation. For a good example, see the first few pages of this game

Might be a language problem. Bandwagoning is here seen as a bad thing. Jumping on easy votes without giving it a lot of thought. The problem I had was not your first vote but your statement that you would be happy to bandwagon me now.
Pointing out that its not OMGUS was to clarify that I seriously mean what I posted about you. In other games I sometimes note that my post might not be entirely just because of OMGUS, here I don't have the feeling that it clouds my judgement.

@USN
My vote should stand independantly of what came after. I just wanted to vote some lurker before commenting.

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Djehutynakht » Tue Aug 20, 2013 3:46 pm UTC

I'm suspicious of Sera... Stubbs... I think it's mostly just because Sera's an old other-forum friend of his, so I'll say neutral.

Just_me I have a neutral read on. I know this is his scumhunt face, though I'm not sure if he wears it while scumming too.

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Djehutynakht » Tue Aug 20, 2013 3:47 pm UTC

Oh, also, out of town for the next week. Unsure of internet connection, but I will attempt to be back and posting regularly.

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Angua » Tue Aug 20, 2013 4:29 pm UTC

First of all, I want to apologise for my lack of engagement, it's been a pretty frustrating time on this rotation and taking away my mafia energy.

So, I guess so far I'm getting the towniest vibe from serrapaladin (good engagement with the game, lots of questions, picking up on scum tells (or at least trying to)). There's a bit of an issue with the bandwagonning thing, but I'm willing to let that go as a culture clash. (btw, we have a saying on this board, which is 3rd on the bandwagon is likely to be scum)

Therefore
Vote: serrapaladin

On that note, I'd also like to point out to any doctors that you might want to protect the people with the box (or who are close to being voted for the box) at night - not because they have the power, but because they are voted as the towniest people of the day, which makes them prime scum targets.

As for who to lynch, I don't really have any firm leads. I think a lot of just_me vs serrapaladin is down to culture clash, so I'm not going to go with that.

We still have a little under 2 days left (deadline on Thursday, right?), so I'm going to go with a lurker vote to get some more content.

vote: thirdkoopa

As all we've had from them is the questions, which gives us nothing to go on at all.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby moody7277 » Tue Aug 20, 2013 4:55 pm UTC

Listing my current feels on people

Okay vibe:
11. serrapaladin
12. Angua
5. Djehutynakht
13. bouer
7. StubbsKVM
1. Xenomortis


Don't know
4. Valius II
2. UniqueScreenname
9. cjquines
6. dimochka
8. Thirdkoopa


Currently voting
3. just_me
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BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby StubbsKVM » Tue Aug 20, 2013 6:33 pm UTC

can we get a vote count and deadline again? :P
Stubbs - next time I'm scum I think I'll just policy NK you at the first possible opportunity.(Suzaku)

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby wam » Tue Aug 20, 2013 6:41 pm UTC

Current Votals:

just_me - 1 (moody7277)
Thirdkoopa - 1 (angua)


Not Voting: cjquines, Djehutynakht, serrapaladin, StubbsKVM, Thirdkoopa, UniqueScreenname, Valius II, Xenomortis, bouer, dimochka, just_me

13 alive, 7 to lynch. Deadline in 1 day and 17 hours, timer http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20130822T13&p0=136&msg=End+of+Day+1

Current Box Votals:

Angua - 1 (moody7277)
Xenomortis - 2 (Xenomortis, dimochka)
bouer - 2 (bouer, Djehutynakht)
serrapaladin - 1 (StubbsKVM, angua)


Not Voting: cjquines, just_me, serrapaladin, Thirdkoopa, UniqueScreenname, Valius II
Last edited by wam on Tue Aug 20, 2013 8:31 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Angua
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Angua » Tue Aug 20, 2013 7:05 pm UTC

I shouldn't be in the nonvoting list.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby wam » Tue Aug 20, 2013 8:31 pm UTC

Angua wrote:I shouldn't be in the nonvoting list.


fixed
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby UniqueScreenname » Tue Aug 20, 2013 10:42 pm UTC

I haven't seen very much flavor spec yet, so let me help. WARNING: SPOILERS.

Spoiler:
Moriarty is the main bad guy. Sebastian Moran works with him. Irene Adler was Holmes' only love interest. In the BBC series she blackmailed for information that she could sell to nefarious buyers. In the CBS series, Adler was also Moriarty. I doubt any of these characters will be town.

Obviously, we should have Holmes and Watson as protagonists. Inspectors Gregson and Lestrade are the main cops he works with. Holmes gets information from the Baker Street Irregulars, a network of homeless kids that see things throughout the city for him.


I was going to say something else, but I forgot. Oh well. More later.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby cjquines » Wed Aug 21, 2013 7:31 am UTC

Reaaaly bad things happening in the Philippines right now.

Mod: Can I ask for a replacement?

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby StubbsKVM » Wed Aug 21, 2013 7:32 am UTC

I think we really need to get a wagon going, or else we aren't getting a claim.

So

vote just_me

because of a lack of other suspects.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Suzaku » Wed Aug 21, 2013 7:46 am UTC

@cj - Thanks for letting us know. Hope you aren't too badly affected.

I am currently looking for a replacement for cjquines.

Note that it is likely, but not certain, that the deadline will be extended should a replacement be found.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby just_me » Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:29 am UTC

1)why do you want a claim stubbs?

2)moody your scum/town list is totally uninformative. A computer could have generated that list on basis of postcount. (except for the vote on me of course)

3)
That said, the individual cop powers are basically useless on their own. I vote that, whatever happens with the box, those get used first unless we get some useful information that would make one of the other powers useful.

vs:
I think if we're going to use the cops (which we'll have to if the game isn't over after watcher/tracker and maybe rolecop), we should have the same person do all three cops.

What do you think about this?

4)I am unsure whether we should say that using rolecop is scummy. Its possible that scum finds an important town PR through it. Plus its possible that we mislynch a VT on the basis of the rolecop. Its a bit tricky if a town player finds another town PR. Scum will know its a PR but not which one and we'd have a confirmed town.
I think it would make more sense to use it later when we maybe had some VT flipps and the probability of hitting another VT is lower.

5)
moody7277 wrote:bouer joke votes, dimochka OMGUS's, bouer immediately unvotes, yet dimochka's vote still stands. Is this a serious allegation, or just forgetfulness?

serrapaladin wrote:I'd hardly say dim's OMGUS looks serious, but his lack of further interaction with bouer is interesting. He seems to completely disregard bouer's unvote and doesn't respond to his little fallacy-quip. He obviously continued reading, as he responded to me, so why no response to bouer?

Moody seems somewhat concerned about that vote on bouer.
I can't really see anything out of the normal actually.
I am having bad feelings around stubbs too, doesn't seem to match his usual style to jump on a wagon so early.
But I think its highly unlikely that they are all scum. Maybe angua is right and its down to cultural clash.

6) Dj doesn't have to much content. Seems rather towny on first sight but he only comments on bouer, serra and me. I'd like to hear some more opinions, also USN is a bit under the radar (and in contrary to valius etc. without excuse).

7) I thought I'd number my points through this post so you won't draw any causal connections where there are only temporal ones. (Interestingly that connection is very Kantian and surprisingly well documented in a huge literature on causality, but yeah let me not bore you with that :> )

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby dimochka » Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:00 pm UTC

Here's my opinion on the box. If tonight's box has a cop action and scum is found, we lynch based on that vote. If we were right, we let the same person use the box again. Otherwise we choose someone else.

Also I don't think just_me is scum. And I have a feeling just_me is going to suspect me as a result of this (and it wouldn't be different than the last couple of games, in which we were both town). Something about serra's posts pings me considerably more, they have a defensive air to them. Going to try to re-read and see if I find something concrete.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Suzaku » Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:00 pm UTC

Current Votals:

just_me - 2 (moody7277, StubbsKVM)
Thirdkoopa - 1 (Angua)

Not Voting: cjquinesSnark, Djehutynakht, serrapaladin, Thirdkoopa, UniqueScreenname, Valius II, Xenomortis, bouer, dimochka, just_me

13 alive, 7 to lynch. Deadline in 22 hours.

Current Box Votals:

Angua - 1 (moody7277)
Xenomortis - 2 (Xenomortis, dimochka)
bouer - 2 (bouer, Djehutynakht)
serrapaladin - 2 (StubbsKVM, Angua)


Not Voting: cjquinesSnark, just_me, serrapaladin, Thirdkoopa, UniqueScreenname, Valius II


I am still looking for a replacement for cjquines.
Thirdkoopa has been prodded for insufficient activity - if xe hasn't posted in 48 hours (barring nights) xe will be replaced or modkilled.

Effective immediately, Snark replaces cjqines. Thank you for stepping in, Snark.
There will be no change to the deadline.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Snark » Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:32 pm UTC

Replacing cjquines.

Only thought based on opening post:
I suggest the N1 and N2 box actions be Watcher and Tracker. The pistol is too powerful in scum's hands (If boxperson shoots a townie, I'll be very interested in lynching the boxperson), the cops will take too long to be useful due to the sanity issues (and if scum misreport a single result, they could become useless), and the role cop can't even ID scum.

Player and content analysis post incoming.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby bouer » Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:40 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Here's my opinion on the box. If tonight's box has a cop action and scum is found, we lynch based on that vote. If we were right, we let the same person use the box again. Otherwise we choose someone else.


This still doesn't make any sense to me. From what I can tell the cops are completely uninformative. Serrapaladin mentioned earlier that he knows how to use them but it's "complicated." Could you explain your strategy to us?

The role cop seems almost as useless, all it can do is distinguish town powers from everyone else. This would give us a confirmed town, but that town would likely be dead the next day.

The misfiring pistol is obviously anti-town.
Assuming a 9:4 split of town to anti-town:
If a town uses it they have a 50.769230769% chance of hitting their target (who they probably don't know for certain is anti-town), a 11.923076923% chance of hitting town, and a 3.076923076% chance of hitting anti-town.
If a scum uses it they have a 50.769230769% chance of hitting their target (who they know for certain isn't scum (assuming night talk)), a 6.923076923% chance of hitting town, and a 8.076923076% chance of hitting anti-town.
Anyone who picks it should probably be lynched next day.

The watcher and tracker seem to be the only genuinely useful tools.

Assuming scum won't target each other:
If we use the watcher in A, find that B targeted them, and B ends up being scum then A is mostly confirmed town.
If we use the tracker on A, find they targeted B, and B ends up being scum then A is mostly confirmed town.
The other cases are also marginally useful.


Does this make sense? If you notice a flaw in the logic say so, otherwise I think anyone who picks something other than the watcher or tracker should be viewed with suspicion.

I'm looking forward to serrapaladins cop strategy.

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby bouer » Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:42 pm UTC

EBWOP

Snark ninja'd me, and said almost the same thing much more succinctly. I'm just posting this to say that my post took about 15 minutes to type and I wasn't just copying him.

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Snark » Wed Aug 21, 2013 2:57 pm UTC

Box vote: Snark

I've read the thread. Most of it was mindless fluff and none of it was enough for a decent player analysis. I did see the following though:

Djehutynakht wrote:
Xenomortis wrote:
serrapaladin wrote:Not knowing whether scum have daytalk makes this a bit more difficult. It's probably just better to assume they do.
When does posting usually kick off? I'd be willing to wagon just_me, but I'm wary of how many people aren't contributing yet.

Looking through wam's last five games, three have had scum have night-chat only (Ice and Fire, Community Paintball, and Random Newbie), two have had them able to chat at any point (Eureka and Pick your Chaos).
From this, I determine nothing.



We also had 24/7 chat in Wam's latest game (Worst Roles)


Vote: Djehutynakht
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby dimochka » Wed Aug 21, 2013 3:28 pm UTC

Oh I completely misunderstood that the person with the box can choose what he uses. I thought it was decided by the mod somehow. Ok this makes more sense now. In that case I would probably not use the cops at all, and so you can ignore my previous post.

@Snark: very good point. I'd like to hear from DJ but it's certainly more suspicious than anything I've heard today.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Snark » Wed Aug 21, 2013 3:32 pm UTC

Snark wrote:Box vote: just_me


I am a mason recruiter. I recruited just_me. I know just_me is town because I can't recruit non-town players. This is stronger than a cop result and was confirmed by Suzaku by PM. Please unvote just_me in the real votals and box vote them immediately.

I request any doctors/watchers out there to doctor just_me or me with 50% probability apiece tonight. This should be sufficient incentive to prevent NK attempts.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby dimochka » Wed Aug 21, 2013 3:34 pm UTC

I will once just_me confirms what you said.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby Snark » Wed Aug 21, 2013 3:35 pm UTC

Box vote: just_me

Accidentally had this in quotes before.
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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby bouer » Wed Aug 21, 2013 5:16 pm UTC

Do we have any way to confirm what snark just said?

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby serrapaladin » Wed Aug 21, 2013 5:23 pm UTC

Snark wrote:Box vote: Snark

I've read the thread. Most of it was mindless fluff and none of it was enough for a decent player analysis. I did see the following though:

Djehutynakht wrote:
Xenomortis wrote:
serrapaladin wrote:Not knowing whether scum have daytalk makes this a bit more difficult. It's probably just better to assume they do.
When does posting usually kick off? I'd be willing to wagon just_me, but I'm wary of how many people aren't contributing yet.

Looking through wam's last five games, three have had scum have night-chat only (Ice and Fire, Community Paintball, and Random Newbie), two have had them able to chat at any point (Eureka and Pick your Chaos).
From this, I determine nothing.



We also had 24/7 chat in Wam's latest game (Worst Roles)


Vote: Djehutynakht

Scum slips rarely are. This feels cheap at best.


Snark wrote:
Snark wrote:Box vote: just_me


I am a mason recruiter. I recruited just_me. I know just_me is town because I can't recruit non-town players. This is stronger than a cop result and was confirmed by Suzaku by PM. Please unvote just_me in the real votals and box vote them immediately.

I request any doctors/watchers out there to doctor just_me or me with 50% probability apiece tonight. This should be sufficient incentive to prevent NK attempts.

So you're a day mason recruiter? Why claim now? Did cj not target anyone? And mind sharing flavour?

just_me wrote:So you actually don't advocate self-voting at all. If this is your view why tell people to selfvote in the first place. I wouldn't have mentioned it if people weren't pointlessly selfvoting. It just doesn't give us any info and as you say yourself in the end we will anyway have to compromise.

Well, I think you'll find I never advocated self-voting at all. My only serious point with regards to that was that box-voting for someone random is even worse. See for example:

serrapaladin wrote:I'm considering how we should do the box thing. Self-voting is of course silly; surely it's implied you'd always also vote for yourself. As soon as people start to form some reads, we should at the very least discourage self-votes (perhaps until a decent number of people are also voting you).


bouer wrote:Serrapaladin mentioned earlier that he knows how to use them but it's "complicated." Could you explain your strategy to us?

Sure, here goes:

The three cops (A,B, and C) are sane, insane (opposite result of sane) or random (which can return either the "sane" result or the "insane" result). Say all three are used by a townie and reported accurately. There are now 4 (really 2) possible outcomes.

3 innocents/3 guilties: guaranteed 1 innocent and 1 guilty in the group of 3. If 2 flip town the 3rd is confscum, and if 2 flip scum, the 3rd is conftown. If 1 flips town and 1 flips scum, the 3rd is unknown.

2 innocents and 1 guilty/2 guilties and 1 innocent: if the first 2 flips are correct (sane), we know the third cop was insane (giving either a conftown or a confscum). If the first 2 flips are incorrect, the final cop is sane. If the first two flips are of opposite sanities, no conclusion can be drawn.

Now, say we choose 3 different people to use the cops. If 1 of them is scum, they can of course just lie about the cop result. In the end, when the conclusion drawn from the 3 cop results turns out to be wrong, we'll know one of the people to use a cop was scum, but since sanities aren't revealed, we won't know who. At that point, it's almost certainly too late to lynch all 3 to find the scum, so we're screwed.

If instead we let a single person use all 3 cops, we're firstly more likely to get good results (remember that only 1 of the 3 above has to be scum to ruin the entire thing). If the person chosen is town, it's all good. If the person chosen to do all 3 is scum, they have 2 choices. They can either report the correct results, in which case we're all good, or they can report fake results, in which case we'll figure out the box-person is scum when the flips don't line up.


I still need to think about the optimal order of items and whether to announce targets. What's the consensus on cryptography around here? We probably wouldn't be able to use actual encryption, but how about saying something cryptic which undeniably refers to the target, but can't be reverse engineered (synonyms of anagrams make a great linguistic form of hash, if that means anything to you).

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Re: Sherlock Mafia - D1 The dingy warehouse

Postby dimochka » Wed Aug 21, 2013 5:25 pm UTC

Since we're all supposed to be characters from Sherlock, I wouldn't put it past us to have a lie detector. But unlikely. At best someone should cop Snark tonight. I would not put it past wam to give scum an ability to add someone to private chat.

Ninja: @DJ - Read the rules, wam is against cryptography.
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