Alien Warfare Mafia (GAME OVER)

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Sabrar
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 16, 2018 3:19 pm UTC

jimbob's not Mercora.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 16, 2018 3:31 pm UTC

plytho wrote:I like the code word system!
Good thing that I drew attention to it then.
Also boo for Mark.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby bessie » Wed May 16, 2018 3:41 pm UTC

So Madge, what’s your code word? Or did you not get a message from jimbob last night because you fake claimed a name?

@Sabrar boo you’re not so smart.

I’m not very good at codes myself.

I’m leaving for work soon.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 16, 2018 3:42 pm UTC

rot13

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed May 16, 2018 3:51 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Right, and you don't know wich (if any) are fake? I like the code word system!
I do not, no. I do expect the other recipients to reveal their words at some point, in particular Vicarin who explicitly said he fake claimed a name. But it can wait.

Sabrar wrote:
plytho wrote:I like the code word system!
Good thing that I drew attention to it then.
Also boo for Mark.
Yes, it helped, although I'm sure I'd have come up with something similar.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 16, 2018 4:15 pm UTC

Confirming receipt of jimbob message. Still thinking about my reply.

I have another night result that I will probably share in a bit. Possibly related to freezeblade claim, but that's just a guess atm.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 16, 2018 4:33 pm UTC

I think I'd prefer freezeblade to claim first if he is still around.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby freezeblade » Wed May 16, 2018 4:39 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:Eh, I'm not terribly fussed. If you're here right now you may as well.


Well, I know who he re-directed. So I don't expect him to lie.

My claim was going to be involving him, and I'm sure he knew it, so we (me and the other Illaman, we found each other on N1) were prepared for backup (We had daychat D2 after finding each other)

Mark re-directed my Illaman cop to SDK (they were not Illaman, obviously) , who was conveniently killed last night. Is this coincidence, I think not.

Luckily, my partner also Illaman copped Mark, and was going to pop in first thing on D3 in the morning to signal if it came back that Mark was actually Illaman. No signal.

So that means that Mark is not Illaman. which means, He's Garatron (with about 95% certainty*)

*Backup figuring: of alternate options:
Mark is actually Human, and false claimed Illaman (<1% chance. Why would anyone do this? this is stupid)
Mark is actually Mercora, and false claimed Illaman (<5% chance. This is also stupid, and pointless to boot )

Vote: Mark_Cangila
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 16, 2018 4:52 pm UTC

Well that's an interesting turn of events.

Sabrar, did you and SDK get daychat when he copped you?

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 16, 2018 5:07 pm UTC

Vote: Mark

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby plytho » Wed May 16, 2018 5:13 pm UTC

Interesting stuff indeed.

Obviously one of Freezeblade and Mark must be garatron.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby freezeblade » Wed May 16, 2018 5:31 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Well that's an interesting turn of events.

Sabrar, did you and SDK get daychat when he copped you?


As a note: I do not have day chat today, so I suspect that the chat we had was not a result of my cop ability, but from some other means.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 16, 2018 5:40 pm UTC

Very good. Someone Neighborized myself and Mark last night, and we have daychat for today only. Target selection is very curious on both counts. Not related to my power.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 16, 2018 5:46 pm UTC

freezeblade wrote:(We had daychat D2 after finding each other)
I'm about 99.9% sure that this is false.

Vote: freezeblade

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby plytho » Wed May 16, 2018 5:47 pm UTC

Are you trying to hit garatron or Illaman?
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 16, 2018 5:48 pm UTC

Garatron. If you think about you'll understand why.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby freezeblade » Wed May 16, 2018 6:26 pm UTC

I don't know, sounds more like you're just Mercora who wants to get rid of the claimed Illaman. Please see my previous post about how the daychat was not likely due to the Illaman cop, as I do not have it today.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby freezeblade » Wed May 16, 2018 6:38 pm UTC

Town, hear me out here:

I think we can agree at this point, that the initial setup was 6*/3/2/2 (H/G/I/M). That means that Mercora members have already claimed, and Sabrar is the only one left. In order for them to win, they must get rid of Illaman, and partner with either the remaining Garatron, or with Town.

As the identity of the other Illaman is unknown, it will be more difficult to suss out that last Illaman from the remaining players, than to just lynch the remaining Mercora. Sabrar knows this, so is attempting to get everyone to lynch one of the Illamans instead of a Garatron, giving both Garatron and Mercora a more favorable ratio D4, where they can vote as a block against the remaining town/Illaman.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby freezeblade » Wed May 16, 2018 6:41 pm UTC

EBWOP (I forgot the *)

*There is a slight chance of a true indie in the town pool, but unlikely.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Two)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 16, 2018 6:44 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:No faction will gain a new faction ability that is not stated in their role pm
Gaining day-chat after you find each other is not in your role-pm so you were aware D2 that it was not an ability that you gained because of it. Your clarification post should have been in your initial claim. Also it is quite a coincidence that you find each other D1 without claiming first and also somehow both of you get targeted by a power that gives day-chat from a third person.
I will not believe this claim unless the second Illaman claims it to be true.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 16, 2018 6:46 pm UTC

If Mark is Garatron he played very suboptimally by killing SDK instead of Town. Also claiming to be Illaman while there are 2 unknown players there who can contradict you is foolish (and btw scum had it rough this game).

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Two)

Postby freezeblade » Wed May 16, 2018 6:50 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
heuristically_alone wrote:No faction will gain a new faction ability that is not stated in their role pm
Gaining day-chat after you find each other is not in your role-pm so you were aware D2 that it was not an ability that you gained because of it. Your clarification post should have been in your initial claim. Also it is quite a coincidence that you find each other D1 without claiming first and also somehow both of you get targeted by a power that gives day-chat from a third person.
I will not believe this claim unless the second Illaman claims it to be true.


What, so that we lose our advantage? I refuse to bow to Mercora demands, as there is clear ulterior motive. You're grasping at straws now. We've already had a flip where there's a neighborizor for the scum faction (night chat), it's more than reasonable that there is at least one for day chat.

ninja: Duh, Garatron know their days are numbered, as they figured that Illaman would illaman cop Mark and out him. They shot SDK to curry favor with Mercora, as they pretty much can't win without Mercora votes.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby freezeblade » Wed May 16, 2018 6:51 pm UTC

EBYOP: Curry favor is the wrong phrase, "Force Mercora to Garatron's side" Because now that there's only one of you, you need to side with Garatron to win, per my previous post.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 16, 2018 7:01 pm UTC

freezeblade wrote:Because now that there's only one of you, you need to side with Garatron to win, per my previous post.
Not true. Your post makes assumptions that are not necessarily correct.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby plytho » Wed May 16, 2018 7:44 pm UTC

Assuming 3 garatron I don't think it's actually necessary to determine exactly who is Illaman and who is garatron. We lynch one today and the other tomorrow and we win, at the risk of losing 1 townie. Getting Garatron first is better obviously so I'll try to figure out who is more likely garatron (tomorrow, when I have some time probably).
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed May 16, 2018 8:02 pm UTC

Still thinking about the claim, but here are my initial thoughts on the possible scenarios:

Human!Mark makes no sense, since there was no real reason to false claim when he did (to-do: review the circumstances leading to Mark's claim).
Human!freezeblade also makes no sense. The only reason to lie for a human is as part of some gambit to further town's cause (basically only to flush out Garatron at this point). With Mark likely to be Illaman, if freezeblade is lying, that means that either freezeblade will get lynched and flip as human (bad) or first Illaman!Mark gets lynched and then freezeblade (worse due to the additional wasted lynch).
Mercora!Mark just makes no sense. Why lie and get your team mates to try to lynch you?
Mercora!freezeblade is very remotely possible, if Mark is Illaman (or freezeblade believes him to be). If he can get Mark lynched, he might be able to wriggle out of being lynched the next day. This would likely only work if freezeblade and Sabrar have been in communication and pre agreed the plan (otherwise Sabrar might turn on freezeblade). I doubt that this is the case though.
Mark and freezeblade won't both be Garatron as that would mean 4 Garatron, which would be extremely difficult for town to win.
Mark and freezeblade are unlikely to both be Illaman, because it is likely that we'll lynch one and then lynch the other with no gain for Illaman, and probably total loss for them.
That just leaves the simple case of one being Garatron and the other Illaman.

My first instinct was that Garatron!freezeblade is lying in an attempt to buy himself time. He will know that Illaman!Mark redirected his kill, assuming that's what happened, and knows therefore that he is massively in the firing line, and needs to somehow direct the attention elsewhere. That being said, I don't see what his end game plan could be in this situation, because an Illaman!Mark flip likely leads to his own lynch, with only one additional kill in that time. He might be hoping that there are two Mercora left, and that he can get them on his side, which might just be enough to swing the lynch in his favour. Still not likely though. Sabrar alone is certainly not enough. It might simply be that he's desperate enough, thinking that his lynch is otherwise a foregone conclusion.

I don't know why Mark would have fake-claimed Illaman earlier though. I need to go back and look.

Just remembered this from D2 end:
plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I can explain my ability, but I'm a little wary about doing so currently, as will hopefully become clear when I do demo it. If it makes a difference, I am affected by it as much as anybody I use it on.
It has not become clear, tbh.
You're probably right in retrospect. I didn't want to reveal it initially, because I didn't want scum to know that I had the ability to pass messages around like this. That being said, it was a fairly weak reason.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 16, 2018 8:10 pm UTC

freezeblade's claim requires another player to be actively complicit in it. Presumably we can sort this out once the relevant people post.

If the daychat ability is not related to either freezeblade or their claimed buddy, then there is another player in the game who knows exactly the identity of freezeblade and his claimed partner. There are not so many players left in the game that this will be difficult to sort out. At worst, we should be able to get everything we need from a mass claim.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 16, 2018 8:14 pm UTC

There may possibly be a scenario where a third party scum shoots SDK in hopes of getting both Mark and his target lynched. I haven't worked through the logic as to whether or not everything would check out. In this case, the person that is freezeblade's buddy would likely be the last mafia.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 16, 2018 8:16 pm UTC

@freezeblade, do you have an Illaman result confirming your hidden partner?

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby freezeblade » Wed May 16, 2018 8:34 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:@freezeblade, do you have an Illaman result confirming your hidden partner?


Yes. This was confirmed by the mod, as I targeted them on N1 with my Illaman Cop.

I would love to hear Mark chime in here, I believe it was requested that he say something at the end of yesterday, but never did, and he's still MIA today. Maybe he's trying to figure out what kind of false claim to make.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby freezeblade » Wed May 16, 2018 8:38 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:[...]He will know that Illaman!Mark redirected his kill, assuming that's what happened, and knows therefore that he is massively in the firing line, and needs to somehow direct the attention elsewhere.
Maybe someone who has previously been re-directed can confirm this, but my note from the mod told me both that I was re-directed, and who I was re-directed to (as well as the result: SDK is not Illaman).
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby LaserGuy » Wed May 16, 2018 8:40 pm UTC

Yes, that is consistent with what I received N1.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed May 16, 2018 8:50 pm UTC

Skimmed the posts leading up to Mark's claim, and there was more pressure on him than I remember them being. Not much still, but enough that would encourage a newbie to claim, especially after Sabrar's comment saying that he could prove that Mark wasn't Human. Clearly Garatron!Mark couldn't claim Garatron, because that would be suicidal, so claiming Illaman is a reasonable recourse. I do wonder about his stated aim of finding Illaman prior to his claim, and am uncertain how this would tie in with his subsequent claim - why would Illaman be actively hunting for their buddies? To not lynch them by accident? I'm uncertain on this.

I do agree with plytho that lynching freezeblade then Mark or vice versa is likely the best course of action, regardless of how things pan out. There is almost certainly only one Garatron left, so we just need to kill them, and then not have something weird happen like all the humans dying and everybody losing (independent possibly excepted).
LaserGuy wrote:There may possibly be a scenario where a third party scum shoots SDK in hopes of getting both Mark and his target lynched. I haven't worked through the logic as to whether or not everything would check out. In this case, the person that is freezeblade's buddy would likely be the last mafia.
I agree that SDK dying (and presumably freezeblade being redirected) does not necessarily imply one of freezeblade or Mark killed SDK, in and of itself. I just re-read where freezeblade said that he was relying on his buddy's info to confirm Illaman on Mark or not. That brings back the possibility of Illaman!freezeblade and Illaman!Mark. I agree that this likely implies freezeblade's chat buddy is trying to get Mark lynched, which would in turn suggest that they are actually Mercora, or Garatron trying to waste town lynches.

Assuming that freezeblade identifies his chat buddy today, can we afford to just lynch all three?

Current situation is likely 5-1-2-1 (H/G/I/M). Assuming freezeblade and Mark are both Illaman, and that the kill kills Human each night. D4 - 4-1-1-1. D5 3-1-0-1. Lynch freezeblade's buddy D6. Town wins with Mercora, unless there is an independent in there, in which case everything goes out of the window, as they have to die too, I think:

Assuming there is a non-Human/Illaman/Garatron/Mercora player in the game, does that player need to die before Humans can win?

Ninja'ed by freezeblade. The Illaman cop result basically rules out Illaman!freezeblade + Illaman!Mark, I think. I'm hoping there's no weird role that comes up as an alien of the appropriate faction, regardless of the target...

I'd like whoever neighbourized freezeblade and his buddy to claim, and I see no reason why they shouldn't reveal their target.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 16, 2018 8:51 pm UTC

From a purely theoretical pov it doesn't matter to me which of them we lynch tonight. Getting Illaman first might make my life easier afterwards but it doesn't change the situation that much. Getting Garatron first eliminates the possibility of getting NK-d but I shouldn't be NK-d anyway. So...

However Garatron claiming Illaman D2 (when Illaman hasn't claimed yet) and then killing Mercora just does not make sense.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby freezeblade » Wed May 16, 2018 9:05 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:From a purely theoretical pov it doesn't matter to me which of them we lynch tonight. Getting Illaman first might make my life easier afterwards but it doesn't change the situation that much.


Please explain how it is better for town to kill Illaman first. It is not, as then there will likely be another NK.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby plytho » Wed May 16, 2018 9:08 pm UTC

@Freezeblade: that's not what Sabrar is saying.

@jimbob: the human wincon explicitly exludes any others from being alive
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby freezeblade » Wed May 16, 2018 9:13 pm UTC

Sabrar is just trying to sew confusion and get the last Illaman to claim. Think about it, What happens after we kill the last Garatron and nobody knows who the last Illaman is? Town will be only one Lynch away from winning, Sabrar.

Sabrar wants to make sure that doesn't happen, and will do everything possible to get Illaman to claim, then push for the other Ilaman (me) to be lynched. It's the only way they can win, and isn't in best interests to town, who's first priority is to lynch Garatron.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby heuristically_alone » Wed May 16, 2018 9:16 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Assuming there is a non-Human/Illaman/Garatron/Mercora player in the game, does that player need to die before Humans can win?


Win Condition: You win when at least one Human is alive, and only one of either Illaman or Mercora has at least one living member. All others must be dead.
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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby Sabrar » Wed May 16, 2018 9:18 pm UTC

Even if we don't go for a draw by NL I can still try to win with Town after we lynch Garatron despite the last Illaman (bessie) not claiming.

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Re: Alien Warfare Mafia (Day Three)

Postby freezeblade » Wed May 16, 2018 9:33 pm UTC

I was certainly not expecting SDK to be killed last night. I was expecting either a townie or myself to be killed (to make sure I didn't give away anything). I'm pretty sure Garatron and others thought I was Illaman. Illaman's PM mentions Garatron, Illaman (obvs), and Human, but does not mention Mercora. Mercora was mentioned when people claimed it, which is when I knew there was three Alien factions, (based off information in-thread as well as my PM. I'm suspecting that Mercora's PM does not mention Illaman, perhaps you can confirm, Sabrar).

Garatron must have known, if they suspected me to be Illaman (especally after a promise of a big reveal), that I would Illaman cop Mark, and figured I'd be sunk when I didn't come up with any result (Bonus if anyone is watching/tracking SDK or me that night, they'd see me visit).
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