So, I have finally been able to re-read most of the game. This took me the larger part of an eternity, so I'll just get straight to the point: the scum is PW-Sabrar-Flicky.Flicky
I want to re-iterate what BoomFrog has already correctly stated yesterday, namely that claiming VT is wine and a neutral read. Everyone who doesn't see this weirds me out (see my reads on Sabrar below).
I think it's notable that PW, in his last large post here
, expressed verbose town reads on both flicky and Madge. To me, that makes it appear very likely that exactly one out of [Madge, flicky] is scum. I count this against both of them. However, flicky looks a little worse here because PW explicitly said this:
PW wrote:Between flicky, Madge, and somi... Flicky is definitely the scummiest, and the most lynchable. I would not mind his lynch.
about flicky, but then never voted him. This looks like classic bussing-without-moving-the-train-along. Therefore, flicky moves up even further on my lynch list than he already was -- which was very high. However, it's understood that I will consider him to be confirmed town if Madge flips scum, because I don't think PW is stupid enough to make a huge analysis post just to become tied with both his scumbuddies.
It concerns me deeply that there appears to be a non-negligble amount of players who treat flicky like he's confirmed town today.Sabrar
This is the hardest player to read for me. I am aware that I already flip-flopped very hard on him yesterday and got called out on my lack of consistence, but that's the price you pay for evaluating new information. Anyway.
Yesterday, when the Sabrar train was rolling, Sabrar was very sure that flicky was a mislynch (first expressed here
). His reasoning was essentially that since scum would want to at least out a power role when getting lynched, flicky claiming VT makes flicky confirmed VT. This is obviously untrue because scum would realize that town would realize this as well, therefore any vanilla claim should be treated as sheer wine. Now, despite still thinking that flicky is much more likely to be scum than not, that -- despite being terrible reasoning -- could just an honest townie sucking hard at wanting to avoid a town mistake. However, there are some interactions in the context of this that just seem very weird.
For example, Sabrar was not only very sure that claiming VT made you auto-town, he also responded very agressively to anybody who disagreed:
cemper93 wrote:I don't have much to say anyway, I still want to lynch flicky and it appears that he's going to be lynched, therefore I'm happy.
So you don't care that he claimed vanilla?
That could just be standard Sabrar play, but it could also be scum that's saddened because its gambit didn't pay off. Then he gets even more aggressive:
Sabrar wrote:@cemper: not wine. He could have waited with the claim but he didn't. This is a mislynch.
I'm okay with either Madge or cemper as today's lynch. BoomFrog is scum if he doesn't unvote.
I get Sabrar didn't like me all day, but threatening BoomFrog for being on the flicky train like that is ridiculous. Preventing townies from lynching scum by threatening them would seem like very, very aggressive scum play, but I could just see Sabrar doing it. It's particularly interesting that Sabrar flip-flopped on BoomFrog pretty hard:
Sabrar wrote:I've decided to leave my vote on Madge and hopefully BoomFrog will bus.
So here Sabrar thinks that Madge-BF is a scum team. Then the next day:
Sabrar wrote: BoomFrog wrote: Sabrar wrote: BoomFrog wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Ninjad. Are you still defending Madge?
Yes. And I'm surprised you don't see it. We'll get into the details of it D2 I'm sure.
Sigh... well there are two ways to do this, either you believe I'm town and trust my judgement or we just start with Madge claiming and then I'll explain.
I believe you're town and this time I don't trust your judgement.
This seems like quite the reversal of opinion to me. Granted, BF did push PW, but here's an important point: I do not consider everybody who voted for PW yesterday town, and neither should anybody else. The action shortly before the deadline was very frantic, and any of the players who switched their votes to PW so suddenly could be bussing scum. This seems to be particularly true for Sabrar, who would, if I read this game correctly, have yesterday been in the awkward position of choosing to lynch either his partner flicky or his partner PW.
This is further compounded by Sabrar throwing accusations left and right when it got closer to the deadline yesterday, as if he was frantically trying to start some kind of bandwagon. For example, he said this in response to jimbob's evaluation of me:
Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: I would be willing to go for cemper to avoid the mislynch.
To me, this reads as sheer opportunism. Note also that today Sabrar seems to have much improved his opinion of me:
Sabrar wrote:jimbob's 'case' on cemper is extremely thin, describing it as 'fair chance but not exactly hard and fast' is disingenuous.
So while yesterday, he wanted to lynch me because jimbob didn't like me, he now wants to attack jimbob because jimbob still doesn't like me. That seems off.
I also really don't like Sabrar's potential scum slip from above. Counting from the day-end post is pinging me. What's worse is that Sabrar attacked me for not posting within 18 hours since the day started, and that he really seemed to think that I had been gone for longer than that. His assertion that "18 hours is already a long time" is bogus. If not posting for 18 hours was in and of itself suspicious, we could just lynch every player in this game right now. This whole interaction just doesn't give me townie vibes.
Now, the remaining question is how Sabrar and flicky relate to PW. Jimbob has already analyzed flicky's behavior above, and while he has the facts right, I disagree with his conclusions. Flicky's reads where never very strong, and he had already said that he had a lot of "neutrals". I also disagree that flicky is town for being on the PW bandwagon, mostly because he would have gotten lynched had the bandwagon not gotten off the ground (as stated above).
For Sabrar, there's stuff like this:
Sabrar wrote:I completely agree with you about the possibility of scum!moody defending town!PW, that's why I put him lower on my list. I just highlighted the fact that if PW turns up to be scum it would drastically increase the chance of moody being one as well.
Sabrar wrote:If PW or cemper is scum te likelihood of the other being scum as well just increased by a large margin.
Which looks like prime "supply myself with lynch reasons for the rest of this game in case my mate gets found out" content to me. Other than that, he attacked PW a lot, but didn't really double down on this until shortly before deadline, where townie points where being doled out for pouncing on him.
All in all, I still think it likely that flicky is scum, and I find Sabrar to be his most likely mate. For the record, my opinion of bessie is much improved. My opinion of BoomFrog is not-so-much improved, but I don't see a valid third scumbuddy for him and therefore will consider him town unless somebody I consider town at this time flips scum.
Other stuff people asked me or I found interesting:
bessie wrote:I think there’s more to Madge’s claim than just buying time for herself. Madge is a good person and I can see her trying to protect Peaceful Whale, regardless or either of their alignments. Although in this game I am reading them as a scum team.
Do you still read them that way?
jimbob wrote:I have no idea about cemper's first game, but I could easily see that PW might have noted in scum chat that he did exactly this (played worse than he actually had), which brought the idea up in cemper's mind.
My first game was [url="http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=101040"]this one[/url]. I hope that reading it will convince you that I did need no bringing up of the idea of deliberately playing bad.
LaserGuy wrote:Madge is looking pretty bad here. The wagon on her was likely all town. She was on two wagons against townies and off-wagon on PW (though in fairness, cemper and I aren't looking too much better in this regard).
Having an all-town wagon on you doesn't make you scum, particularly on D1. Scum loves itself some all-town lynches.