Consequences of climate change

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Eebster the Great
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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby Eebster the Great » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:06 am UTC

To be fair, it is certainly true that science reporting is overall pretty bad, and I don't think climate reporting is exempt from that. I just don't think that Gore is somehow especially bad, and in my experience, climate science reporting from left-leaning sources is often better than reporting on other fields, such as nutrition, medicine, astronomy, physics, and particularly evolution.

Right-leaning sources, however, have appallingly terrible reporting of climate science, to the point where it is simply dishonest. There is no comparison between the two.

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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby p1t1o » Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:54 am UTC

Sounds deep but doesnt hold water. We could easily still have capitalism with clean energy.

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PM 2Ring
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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby PM 2Ring » Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:27 am UTC

p1t1o wrote:Sounds deep but doesnt hold water. We could easily still have capitalism with clean energy.

Indeed. Capitalism doesn't intrinsically imply that you're free to pursue your economic goals without cleaning up any messes you create in the process.

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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby Pfhorrest » Sat Jan 26, 2019 4:33 pm UTC

I think there are two different but compatible things being said here:

1) If we just had a source of clean energy that would fix climate change without having to get rid of capitalism or anything like that.

2) If we keep capitalism then we are unlikely to develop sufficient quantities of sufficiently clean energy sufficiently soon because the motives to do so won’t exist in the market.
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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby Thesh » Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:49 pm UTC

More specifically, the only way to solve environmental problems within an economic system that inherently rewards decision makers for overconsumption, waste, and pollution is to use government to limit consumption, waste, and pollution. The biggest problem is that within capitalism, the wealth of the wealthiest people depends on maintaining the status quo, and since they have so much political power it's extremely difficult to get government to do anything more than just barely enough to make the public not concerned about the problem - especially when so much propaganda is dedicated to ensuring that people do not have the will to solve it.
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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby elasto » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:19 pm UTC

Exactly. There's nothing intrinsic to capitalism that says we must privatise profits and socialise externalities. Something like cap and trade is perfectly compatible with capitalism.

As Thesh says though, the issue is that wealth and political power form a feedback loop, and nothing grows wealth quicker than privatising profits and socialising costs, which, in the case of climate change, has been occurring for a century or more.

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Eebster the Great
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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby Eebster the Great » Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:58 pm UTC

To bring things down to earth, the current reality is that green energy is overall more expensive than conventional energy unless externalities are considered. There is not, at present, a mechanism to internalize those costs, and the free market has not found a solution. So if we are serious about doing something about climate change, we have to change the market. That may be tantamount to blasphemy to some libertarians, but it's not the equivalent of destroying capitalism. A system like carbon credits is not a tax, it just forces companies to pay for the costs they incur.

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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby ijuin » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:04 am UTC

The problem with methods of internalizing those external costs (e.g. via tradable carbon credits) is that the people who don’t want to pay for it (largely because they would need to buy the largest amount of them) have sufficient power to block the enforcement of such a system to begin with.

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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby elasto » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:54 am UTC

Another problem is that climate change needs a coordinated, world-wide solution. If America implements a carbon tax and Africa doesn't, it doesn't really help the world if American firms just offshore their CO2 production because it works out the cheapest option once a carbon tax comes in...

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Eebster the Great
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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby Eebster the Great » Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:00 pm UTC

You need an international agreement, which is the whole point of all these agreements we were signing until something happened a couple years back.

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Zamfir
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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby Zamfir » Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:47 pm UTC

ijuin wrote:The problem with methods of internalizing those external costs (e.g. via tradable carbon credits) is that the people who don’t want to pay for it (largely because they would need to buy the largest amount of them) have sufficient power to block the enforcement of such a system to begin with.


Another point on this: a carbon price is only one side of full "internalization" of costs. The other side would be paying out the proceeds to the people damaged by climate change, somehow commensurate with the damage. That part is never on the table - there is no political will for it, or even a idea how to exactly identify the damages and the damaged people.

That one-sidedness bothers me. Especially when I see elborate analyses that try to determine an "optimal" carbon price, with some economic model balancing costs of climate change versus costs of greenhouse gas reduction.

These looks as fancy with graphs and everything. In practice it mean that poor people in poor countries might get hit hard - losing houses and food supplies. Which counts for little damage in the models, because not much euros involved. On the other side of the equation, rich people might have to drive a smaller car and wear a sweater indoors, or buy expensive carbon-neutral machinery to avoid that. Big damage when expressed in euros! And to "balance" these factors, the rich people will "internalize" the climate effect by paying a carbon price to their own government, who will then (of course!) not send the money to other countries, but return it to its own citizens.

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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby Sableagle » Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:31 am UTC

My picture from June 2016:

P6200174 Dent du Geant and Aiguilles Marbrees.JPG


Two pictures from this year ( https://www.instagram.com/p/BzVH4_loWGx/ ):

DdGAMalarm.png


Also:
This week, like much of Europe, the UK has been sweltering in a near-unprecedented heatwave thanks to a plume of hot air sweeping in from north Africa.

The heat was so intense on Thursday that much of the country’s rail network ground to a halt, with nearly all train companies announcing cancellations and delays due to the weather.


In the aptly named Alert, Canada, a permanently inhabited settlement in the Arctic Circle, military personnel stationed there have recorded highs of 21C, far exceeding the July average of 6-7C.

In June, a starving polar bear travelled all the way to Norilsk, Russia, in search of food. The Siberian Times reported the exhausted animal had travelled as much as 1,500km, crossing the vast Taymyr Peninsula, and was spotted scouring the streets looking for something to eat.
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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby Sableagle » Fri Aug 02, 2019 3:58 pm UTC

Just another weather record:
There's nothing unusual about that, these days.
Record weather, I mean. There's nothing unusual about record-breaking weather ... which really ought to terrify anyone who understands the whole ... y'know ... numbers thing.
(If you've been rolling 20d6 every hour for ten years and suddenly you're getting numbers in the 130s, then in the 140s, then in the 150s, something's gone screwy.)
Of course, it's a UK summer, so:
Thunderstorms are expected to hit parts of the UK this week with a risk of more flooding following a weekend of heavy downpours.

Per predictions, our ludicrous heatwave has been followed by a ludicrous rainwave:
Half a month’s worth of rain fell in just 24 hours across parts of England over the weekend, leading to flooding and travel disruption.

Forecasters said parts of the north-west saw 40mm to 50mm of rain between 11am on Saturday and 11am on Sunday, with 52.2mm recorded at Greenfield near Oldham.

... which may yet be followed by a horrific muddy-water-wave:Police say the wall holding back the 300-million-gallon Toddbrook Reservoir could still fail despite about 24 hours of efforts to shore it up. The 1,500 people evacuated from Whaley Bridge amid "mortal danger" warnings will not be allowed home tonight. "We saw the water coming over at a tremendous rate on Wednesday and the park was flooded but it wasn't until Thursday the people who look after it started to look worried. Then it started to collapse on Thursday and it made a tremendous noise as the concrete slabs began to collapse."
Whatever happens at Whaley Bridge, questions will be asked about safety and whether ageing infrastructure can cope with the heavier downpours predicted as the climate warms. Part of the reservoir's spillway broke away on Thursday. It was damaged after large swathes of the country were battered by heavy rain and floods earlier in the week.[/quote]
Worth it to know your car would be able to do 0-60 in under 4.5 seconds if only you weren't stuck in traffic, though, right, Top Gear fans?
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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby p1t1o » Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:49 pm UTC

Honestly, its so severe it is now obvious even just from my own memory of past weather.

I can tell just by feeling the sun on my skin and the qualities of the air, our climate is not the same as it was just 20 years ago.

And I dont remember anyone back then commenting that the weather isnt what it used to be, which means its *accelerating*.

Not exactly a robust collection of datapoints, I know, but when you can see the changes happening in the broad strokes...

Its like...hmm thats a very nice conspiracy theory you have there, lots of material denouncing current climate science but - hey, can I borrow your factor 50?

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Re: Consequences of climate change

Postby Heimhenge » Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:10 pm UTC

Well I guess I can add another post to this thread now. Learned over the past year that our well is going dry. Aquifers all over the Southwest are drying up from the extended (10+ year) drought. Monsoon rains are already a month late here in Arizona. My 300 ft deep well originally provided all the water we needed. I installed a water meter two years ago to keep track of production, and it recently dropped below 20 gpd (gallons per day) which is less than our demand. Have had to order water deliveries to refill our 2000 gallon storage tank twice now. Here's the climate hit ...

As I watched the diesel-fueled delivery truck climbing our 1/4 mile driveway in low gear it was belching huge amounts of dirty exhaust into the air. They kept the engine running during the refill to power their pump. More foul exhaust, and I could smell it in the yard long after the truck departed. And these water companies are running deliveries back-to-back on most days, since all my neighbors' wells are suffering the same fate.

I guess this could all be lumped into the transportation sector for fossil fuel emissions. But it just seems kinda ironic since climate change is driving this water delivery business in the Southwest and most of these heavy trucks are running on diesel. One of many examples of feedback loops making climate change even worse.


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