In 1Billion Years, Earth will become a second Venus.

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FunkyPants4457
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In 1Billion Years, Earth will become a second Venus.

Postby FunkyPants4457 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 1:07 am UTC

I read this statement in this book under question about new york at different points in time. If this statement is correct, then hypothetically if we somehow managed to view Earth 1Billion years from now, it would be a second venus. But since venus is so hot, wouldn't it burn away all traces of life on Earth. So we wouldn't be able to see what previous life on Earth was. Now if this is correct then theoretically the same would apply to Venus, we would never know if Venus had life before.

I may not be right, but this was a question I had and I need someone to clarify it.

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thoughtfully
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Re: In 1Billion Years, Earth will become a second Venus.

Postby thoughtfully » Mon Sep 05, 2016 2:51 am UTC

There's a lot of space between uninhabitable and "burning away all traces". The surface of Earth in a billion years will probably be in a condition that doesn't support life "as we know it", but if anyone bothered to come by and have a look, they would probably find some remnants.
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Re: In 1Billion Years, Earth will become a second Venus.

Postby ijuin » Mon Sep 05, 2016 2:58 am UTC

In one billion years, the oceans (and air) will be hot enough to literally cook proteins like meat in a pot (80 Celsius or more), but even when the oceans boil away, any fossils will still remain unless the surface gets literally molten hot.

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Re: In 1Billion Years, Earth will become a second Venus.

Postby Eebster the Great » Mon Sep 05, 2016 5:16 am UTC

Venus is a hell of a lot hotter than is required to ensure extinction of all life on Earth. It is seriously goddamn hot. It may be difficult for most science journalists to appreciate just how hot it is. The Earth is not at risk of becoming Venus anytime soon, and if you are asking us to extrapolate one hundred million years into the future, well how could we possibly know? After all, Venus is an awful lot closer to the Sun than we are and also smaller. It's not apples to apples here.

But sure, we can learn some things about the greenhouse effect from Venus and it is certainly true that climate change on Earth in recent times is principally due to the greenhouse effect, so yeah it matters, but we don't need to worry about other worlds to see that. I think if people are unwilling to accept warming in conventional scenarios, Venus is unlikely to convince them.

Solutions do exist, by the way. Not all energy production results in CO2 emission, and sustainable solutions are certainly possible. Nuclear energy is the most obvious and probably simplest solution, but there are others as well. It's not some inescapable catastrophe as some people seem to believe. But it is a serious problem that, economically speaking, will probably take an enormous amount of time to resolve at tremendous cost.

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Re: In 1Billion Years, Earth will become a second Venus.

Postby commodorejohn » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:26 am UTC

Fortunately, in a billion years, it will be very thoroughly filed under "not my problem," and probably under "not anybody else's either."
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Re: In 1Billion Years, Earth will become a second Venus.

Postby Neil_Boekend » Mon Sep 05, 2016 10:05 am UTC

Wikipedia wrote:will remain fairly stable for more than five billion more.

So, assuming Wikipedia is correct, a billion years will not make Earth as hot as Venus.

There will probably be a point after that 5 billion years when the sun will be bigger than the orbit of earth. That'll vaporize our atmosphere over time and generally suck for us. This process won't be fast, since the outer layers of the sun won't be very far from a vacuum by then.
Anyway, the flood of radiation will still heat up our planet to a thermal equilibrium at about 5000 K. At some point the mean surface temperature of the earth will be 737 K, the current mean temperature of Venus, but that's well after the given 1 billion years
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Re: In 1Billion Years, Earth will become a second Venus.

Postby Nicias » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:18 am UTC

Neil_Boekend wrote:
Wikipedia wrote:will remain fairly stable for more than five billion more.

So, assuming Wikipedia is correct, a billion years will not make Earth as hot as Venus.

There will probably be a point after that 5 billion years when the sun will be bigger than the orbit of earth. That'll vaporize our atmosphere over time and generally suck for us. This process won't be fast, since the outer layers of the sun won't be very far from a vacuum by then.
Anyway, the flood of radiation will still heat up our planet to a thermal equilibrium at about 5000 K. At some point the mean surface temperature of the earth will be 737 K, the current mean temperature of Venus, but that's well after the given 1 billion years


The sun is getting hotter and hotter, it always has. So far the earth has been able to maintain a relatively constant temperature by adjusting the CO2 level by feedback loops. However, in 1 Billion year or so, the sun will be hot enough that even with non CO2 in the atmosphere, it will be hot enough to boil water. Once that happens, the oceans boil. Water vapor is a very effective greenhouse gas, and so you get what is called a "runaway wet greenhouse" and all of the oceans boil off, and venus here we come.

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Re: In 1Billion Years, Earth will become a second Venus.

Postby ijuin » Mon Sep 05, 2016 7:52 pm UTC

To get an idea of how hot Venus is, take a moment to look at the oven in your kitchen (if you have one). It probably doesn't go higher than about 350C or 600F. Venus is hotter than that! That's right: your oven can't get hot enough to resemble the temperature on the surface of Venus!


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