Post number N wins

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Re: Post number N wins

Postby ObsessoMom » Fri Mar 23, 2018 2:20 pm UTC

Υ

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Re: Post number N wins

Postby eran_rathan » Fri Mar 23, 2018 2:58 pm UTC

Y thank you, I'd love some T.
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:11 pm UTC

I'd love some K
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:51 pm UTC

I'd love some D.
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:14 pm UTC

Check your pocket.
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:15 pm UTC

:oops:
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby ObsessoMom » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:48 pm UTC

Φ

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Re: Post number N wins

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:48 pm UTC

Nice cat eye.
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby ObsessoMom » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:51 pm UTC

Χ

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Re: Post number N wins

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:52 pm UTC

How exy.
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby ObsessoMom » Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:30 pm UTC

Ψ

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Re: Post number N wins

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:36 pm UTC

Are you psi-chic?
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:31 pm UTC

That was a knee slapper
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby flicky1991 » Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:47 pm UTC

*slaps your knees*
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby ObsessoMom » Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:56 am UTC

Ω

Woohoo! Done.

Why is there so much thread left?

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Re: Post number N wins

Postby adnapemit » Sat Mar 24, 2018 2:26 am UTC

1000 posts is quite a lot.
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby ObsessoMom » Sat Mar 24, 2018 5:41 am UTC

α

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Re: Post number N wins

Postby somitomi » Sat Mar 24, 2018 8:28 am UTC

a
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:49 am UTC

Here's Johnny!
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby somitomi » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:29 pm UTC

á
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Mar 24, 2018 1:42 pm UTC

What a lovely accent you have.
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby ObsessoMom » Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:13 pm UTC

β

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Re: Post number N wins

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Mar 25, 2018 7:13 pm UTC

Brrrrrrrrr...
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby somitomi » Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:03 pm UTC

b
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby ObsessoMom » Sun Mar 25, 2018 8:55 pm UTC

γ (minuscule Γ, not majuscule υ)

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Re: Post number N wins

Postby somitomi » Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:15 pm UTC

c
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby ObsessoMom » Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:34 am UTC

δ

somitomi, your new avatar needs sunglasses with flame reflections in them. Because he fell into a burning ring of fire.

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Re: Post number N wins

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Mar 26, 2018 4:55 am UTC

:lol:
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby eran_rathan » Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:15 pm UTC

ObsessoMom wrote:δ

somitomi, your new avatar needs sunglasses with flame reflections in them. Because he fell into a burning ring of fire.



Image
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby somitomi » Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:46 pm UTC

cs

ObsessoMom wrote:somitomi, your new avatar needs sunglasses with flame reflections in them. Because he fell into a burning ring of fire.

There you go
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby heuristically_alone » Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:02 pm UTC

adnapemit wrote:1000 posts is quite a lot.


Sí. If I ran the game, once someone hit the magic number I'd end it. Or end ot at latest a page later.
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby somitomi » Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:37 pm UTC

d

heuristically_alone wrote:
adnapemit wrote:1000 posts is quite a lot.


Sí. If I ran the game, once someone hit the magic number I'd end it. Or end ot at latest a page later.

What would be the chances of the next post winning given that none of the previous posts won? Man, my math skills are rusty...
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby eran_rathan » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:13 pm UTC

1/(number of previous posts)
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby heuristically_alone » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:13 pm UTC

1/1000
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby eran_rathan » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:17 pm UTC

what number are we on?
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby heuristically_alone » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:21 pm UTC

Assuming the OP doesnt count, 595 I believe?
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:30 pm UTC

Without such 'finished!' information being expected, the next post in a 1000-post run is always 1/1000th of a chance to win, with 999/1000ths of lose representing the sum of the prior and yet-to-come posts that could also win.

If it's "stop immediately upon winning" then post X has 1/(1001-X)th chance of being N. 1/1000th for X=1, and if we get to X=1000 then that has the certainty of 1/1 chance. But a) I think we're supposed to wait for the end, and b) waiting until nearly the end to get good odds on a high post X also raises the odds that posts X-1, X-2, etc also have higher chances to have already won the gamble, based upon the initially unknown 1/1000th chance decreasing equally to all possible Ns from now until 1000, as soon as all possible Ns from 1 until the post before now are shown to be false.

(Closing the game within a page of the winnng N means that your chance at X is 1/(1001-X+delayfudge), with delayfudge being ill-defined but perhaps assumed to be that of half a page of posts, if OP is not deliberately watching more closely as the tally gets to close in on the hidden winning value, merely keeping pace with the rough participation level. This also leaves one risking that the number has been passed (perhaps only just) when making your late-play bid, and the sum of the chances that the last two-or-more unchecked posts will have already won it exceeds the chances that yours will win it for the whole run. If you're gambling on N=1000, but make your bid when only 999 and 998 are yet both unconfirmed and undenied, it's a 1-in-3, vs 2-in-3 that they had snatched it. Best you can get is evens if 998 has been let pass for a long time without comment, and 999 and your choice of 1000 are (on that basis) equally likely.)


Anyway, based on assumption (a), I'm not waiting until the end, I'm just looking for a 'better' win (at lower odds) by making fewer posts. The chances are low that I shall win, but it'll feel better if I do!


(This is only my fourth post. I was actually going to wait until 666 and decide whether to claim that, so if 666 (2/3rds through, for no good reason) ends up winning I shall also claim a mental victory, but if this one wins instead then I shall credit you with the win, but secretly still savour that the capriciousness of fate sent the victory my way and not one of the blatant spammers on this thread.. :P)

((I do not expect a fifth post. But then I started off thinking I'd only do that one. I may indeed dilute my self-satisfaction further, but so long as it's below double-figures, I can be perfectly ecstatic with that sub-percentile opportunity coming home to roost.… :mrgreen: ))

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Re: Post number N wins

Postby somitomi » Mon Mar 26, 2018 3:38 pm UTC

Thanks for the extensive explanation.

dz
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby flicky1991 » Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:59 pm UTC

TL;DR
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Re: Post number N wins

Postby heuristically_alone » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:07 am UTC

That would be a great post to win
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